Mharman

I got 2 out of 3 in the end. Given my history of being bad at the game, I'll take it, even if it comes with asterisks. I was going to save Mikal for last since he was hunter, and he would be forced to vote himself or die with 1 mafioso remaining coming into what would've been DP5. I wanted Whiteflame -> Sui -> Mikal. But I was wrong on Whiteflame so I never would've made it that far.

Next time a survivor pops up, it's a policy lynch. No getting distracted by potential mafia. Period.

No, I do. I just only remembered the first couple lines.

Yes I now indentify as a woman to make ur mum gay lol

You! You are gae!

Ok I'll stop posting.

Hammer O'Clock.

no tic tac toe, cancelled.

:(

nevermind grey hammered

bruh just wait 'till morning to see it if you're that tired

Unless you wanna go for some tic tac toe?

Sooooo, anyone wanna play tic tac toe while we wait? I'll start.

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one of you, anyways

hammer the vtnl, please

Hail mary and all the twelve disciples and all the saints strats, don't mind me.

In case we do have something weird, there has been a change of plan: Cop between Whiteflame, Supa, and Pie randomly with the die.

Anyways, just kill me this NP. I feel like I was a major contributor to Earth's and Airmax's mislynches, so just give me a fitting end.

You know, you never did provide a reasoning for Rachel being the hunter.

cast the vtnl hammer, please.

Well if any of my fellow townies do have something, I hope they use it.

We were living on a prayer this DP anyways. I had a whole hail mary strategy planned out, but it all hinged on greyparrot's choice anyways.

Yeah. You and Sui, so was Pie the third or did he give up? If he gave up, who was it?

cool. was it a 3-man team or just you and Sui?

Either way, probs GGs.

or are you town and just giving up, Pie?

We all know one is Sui, and I figured one was Mikal (admittedly for a different reason than reality- was tying him to his defense of Whiteflame), but you too, Pie?

Dang.

I don't think there's a separate faction. I think this is GGs.

What causes you to townread him so heavily?

Earlier I said the low odds of a town magistrate were questionable due to a small sample size. But I forgot that this town magistrate claim hinges on the existence of a redirector or bus driver, the investigations of which do have a much larger sample size. So the odds of a town magistrate in this game are still low with a method that can’t be discredited by pointing out the small sample size. 

To reiterate, there is a low chance of magistrates being town in games they appear in and there is a low chance of there being the bus driver or redirector that the idea of this magistrate being town hinges on.

Now let’s move on to theme analysis. Before we lynched Airmax last DP, I concluded the split was Navarros vs. Else. This was part of my reasoning for the lynch. But clearly that was wrong. I now think it could be Marty Byrde and allies vs. Everyone else. The character of Charles Wilkes is a clear cut ally of Marty, manipulating the vote that allows Marty to continue a casino project. 

Claiming magistrate and using it on an obviously scum teammate afterwards are both very risky gambits that a lot of scum teams would never pull. I cannot understate this. Whiteflame is an experienced player.

And let’s talk about theme here, too. Ruth Langmore was town, and she was Marty’s business partner. This could mean Marty Byrde could be a town role, so in this case there would be no evidence of Charles Wilkes being a scum character.

Supa has claimed gramps, a role which MafiaUniverse has said is exclusively scum. He

may have also had a scum teammate telling him to fake a mod mistake, since a modding mistake has not been confirmed. He is jumping all over the place and is now OMGUSing Pie out perhaps desperation to not be caught. And Buddy Dieker in the show is a terminally ill old man who doesn’t do too much in the show, so the possibility of a fake claim is there.

If Lunatic did include the Gramps role, he could flip it to town if he thinks it can be used as a town role. The town utility to the Gramps role is undeniable if Lunatic went that route.

Another thing is that a modding mistake is possible, given that I had to point out to Lunatic a mistake of his earlier. It had no bearing on how the DP ended, but it was a mistake nonetheless. As for confirmation on a modding mistake in Supa’s PMs, we will likely never get it from Lunatic. Confirming there was a mistake would tell town too much about Supa, and that in itself could be seen as a mod helping town too much.

Finally let’s talk about that OMGUS of Pie. This can just as likely be towny since he could be OMGUSing out of a sense that Pie is only going after him because he is scum. An incorrect notion for sure, but many town players have done this in the past.

Now let’s talk theme one more time. If Buddy Dieker isn’t a fake claim, he is an objectively townie character who only gets used by Marty.

First, I don’t see any reason to believe both are scum anymore after thinking about and typing up this post. Supa has no reason to bus a teammate in MYLO. All of the mafia could push for a single mislynch and end the game right here right now, and imagine it is what they want to do. Plus, Supa has been scumreading Whiteflame since last DP, when he first claimed magistrate.

Despite the number of paragraphs, the argument for Supa being scum is just as strong as the case for Whiteflame being scum. However, Supa does have a much stronger case for being town than Whiteflame.

First, if one is mafia, claiming town magistrate isn’t a huge risk until you use it incorrectly for town benefit to the point where you have to rely on the claim of a redirector or bus driver, which didn’t happen until the DP after he claimed it. So I can see why Whiteflame would maybe try it if mafia hadn’t thought of protecting Sui from getting lynched yet. As early in DP2 as it was, they likely hadn’t.

Second, if there was any time to take a risk for mafia, it could be now. One mislynch is all it takes. If they go all in and get it, they don’t have to worry about any repercussions of the risk next DP since they will have already won and there won’t be one. I know I said Whiteflame may not take the risk due to being experienced, but experience may also yield the knowledge of when to take such a risk, and that would be now if there was ever a time for the scum team.

Third, Ruth Langmore, although Marty was a father figure, she wasn’t completely loyal to him always. She tired to kill him at point in the show. So Marty doesn’t have to be on the same team as her, and is this on the table for scum, putting Charles Wilkins back on the table for scum.

With that being said, I’ve made my selection for now. It is a hard choice between Whiteflame and Supa, and I pick Whiteflame.

After re-reading the DP. I can see reasons why either Whiteflame or Supa could be scum, maybe even both.

You know, the first half of this DP went kinda fast. I want to reread it from an updated point of view.

Correction: Magistrate and votestealer are NOT the same. Disregard “votestealer” in my research.

I swear every time I have a neat idea I keep nearly ruining it by getting some small thing mixed up.

How about the Dan Snyder Clown Show?

Why are you gae?

ok.

Anyways, I'm going to bed.

We have tomorrow and the day after until 6. No need to rush.

Also, Supa can be panicking as town not wanting to be mislynched just as much as scum not wanting to be found out.

thank you

SIDE NOTE: an innocent cop still means something worth looking into. However, I don't know if the case of Supa can be solved this DP. Sure, there's a solid chance mafia is manipulating Cop results, but it's not a guarantee. I want more info out of ComputerNerd next DP.

Released my findings. Thoughts?

A JOAT has appeared in 60% of games I analyzed, and 46% of all JOATs were mafia. However, we already have one JOAT confirmed in this game, and only 33% of games with a JOAT had multiple of them.

So not likely, which means mafia likely has a limited amount of roles at their disposal. From, what we've seen happen in this game, these are the possible mafia roles:

-Lawyer or Godfather

-Magistrate or Redirector

-Roleblocker

First things first, let's focus on the Lawyer and Godfather. The more likely either of these roles are in the game, the less likely CompuerNerd's "innocent" cop result on Supa is true. Then I'll talk about the possibility of a scum magistrate vs. the idea of a town magistrate and a scum redirector, as it is critical to any decision on Whiteflame. As for roleblocker, I think it's a lock for this game that mafia has one and used it on ComputerNerd NP1, so I won't dig in to that one.

At least one of these two appeared in 87% of games I analyzed. Across the 13 games with one or both of these, there were 9 Godfathers and 8 Lawyers/Framers. So yes, I basically guarantee mafia has some counter to ComputerNerd's cop. Therefore, an innocent cop doesn't mean as much, but a guilty one might if either it is Godfather and no Lawyer/Framer, or if the Lawyer/Framer is a Lawyer and not a Framer.

For those who don't know, a Lawyer makes a target appear innocent to investigations and a Framer makes a target appear guilty to investigations; Lunatic has a habit of giving players both roles in his games.

Honestly, a mafia Redirector or Bus Driver is more likely than a Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, but not very likely in itself. A mafia redirector or bus driver appeared in 33% of games I analyzed. As for Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, we know it is in this game despite appearing in 13% of games I analyzed. Whiteflame has claimed responsibility for his role use on Badger last DP, and we know the effect wasn't just Badger because it is on Sui this DP. But this does not guarantee a Redirector or Bus Driver. And you know what is less common than a mafia Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer? A town Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, which appeared in only 7% of games I analyzed. The only thing that makes this statistic questionable is the small sample size of games containing a Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer.

Either way, we may need to re-examine Whiteflame.

results almost done

dude chill. Anger does not help your case, it only harms it

This is to counter a lawyer/framer.

one of the 3 remaining after one of the 4 is lynched, yes.

Then who do you think scum is and why?

List of games I will be using and where you can find them in the archives:

75) Dragonball Z Mafia

92) Wal-Mart Mafia

103) Kill Bill Mafia

111) Redwall Mafia

130) Christmas Mafia

196) Themeless Mafia

209) Bartimaeus Mafia

224) Game of Thrones Mafia

235) Clash of Clans Mafia

259) Overwatch Mafia

277) Stranger Things Mafia

296) Dark Crystal Mafia

314) Stormlight Archives

335) Inverse Reality Mafia

343) Stephen King Universe Mafia

So far I think SUpa is the player we lynch and take that chance on. But I want be more confident in such a choice before I make it.

This does mean that we have to take chance this DP on someone, however. That is where my research on Lunatic's past games comes into play.

In the meantime, I need you to roll a die, ComputerNerd.

We are going lynch one of these four for sure this DP: Mikal, Pie, Supa, Whiteflame.

After one is lynched, you must roll the die to determine who you will cop.

1-2 is one, 3-4 is another, and 5-6 is the last one. Got it?

Do not reveal who you picked for the cop until you post your results tomorrow.

Post # 236

WAIT. Scratch that. I want to save Mikal's role power for later.