Mharman

We have tomorrow and the day after until 6. No need to rush.

Also, Supa can be panicking as town not wanting to be mislynched just as much as scum not wanting to be found out.

thank you

SIDE NOTE: an innocent cop still means something worth looking into. However, I don't know if the case of Supa can be solved this DP. Sure, there's a solid chance mafia is manipulating Cop results, but it's not a guarantee. I want more info out of ComputerNerd next DP.

Released my findings. Thoughts?

A JOAT has appeared in 60% of games I analyzed, and 46% of all JOATs were mafia. However, we already have one JOAT confirmed in this game, and only 33% of games with a JOAT had multiple of them.

So not likely, which means mafia likely has a limited amount of roles at their disposal. From, what we've seen happen in this game, these are the possible mafia roles:

-Lawyer or Godfather

-Magistrate or Redirector

-Roleblocker

First things first, let's focus on the Lawyer and Godfather. The more likely either of these roles are in the game, the less likely CompuerNerd's "innocent" cop result on Supa is true. Then I'll talk about the possibility of a scum magistrate vs. the idea of a town magistrate and a scum redirector, as it is critical to any decision on Whiteflame. As for roleblocker, I think it's a lock for this game that mafia has one and used it on ComputerNerd NP1, so I won't dig in to that one.

At least one of these two appeared in 87% of games I analyzed. Across the 13 games with one or both of these, there were 9 Godfathers and 8 Lawyers/Framers. So yes, I basically guarantee mafia has some counter to ComputerNerd's cop. Therefore, an innocent cop doesn't mean as much, but a guilty one might if either it is Godfather and no Lawyer/Framer, or if the Lawyer/Framer is a Lawyer and not a Framer.

For those who don't know, a Lawyer makes a target appear innocent to investigations and a Framer makes a target appear guilty to investigations; Lunatic has a habit of giving players both roles in his games.

Honestly, a mafia Redirector or Bus Driver is more likely than a Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, but not very likely in itself. A mafia redirector or bus driver appeared in 33% of games I analyzed. As for Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, we know it is in this game despite appearing in 13% of games I analyzed. Whiteflame has claimed responsibility for his role use on Badger last DP, and we know the effect wasn't just Badger because it is on Sui this DP. But this does not guarantee a Redirector or Bus Driver. And you know what is less common than a mafia Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer? A town Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, which appeared in only 7% of games I analyzed. The only thing that makes this statistic questionable is the small sample size of games containing a Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer.

Either way, we may need to re-examine Whiteflame.

results almost done

dude chill. Anger does not help your case, it only harms it

This is to counter a lawyer/framer.

one of the 3 remaining after one of the 4 is lynched, yes.

Then who do you think scum is and why?

List of games I will be using and where you can find them in the archives:

75) Dragonball Z Mafia

92) Wal-Mart Mafia

103) Kill Bill Mafia

111) Redwall Mafia

130) Christmas Mafia

196) Themeless Mafia

209) Bartimaeus Mafia

224) Game of Thrones Mafia

235) Clash of Clans Mafia

259) Overwatch Mafia

277) Stranger Things Mafia

296) Dark Crystal Mafia

314) Stormlight Archives

335) Inverse Reality Mafia

343) Stephen King Universe Mafia

So far I think SUpa is the player we lynch and take that chance on. But I want be more confident in such a choice before I make it.

This does mean that we have to take chance this DP on someone, however. That is where my research on Lunatic's past games comes into play.

In the meantime, I need you to roll a die, ComputerNerd.

We are going lynch one of these four for sure this DP: Mikal, Pie, Supa, Whiteflame.

After one is lynched, you must roll the die to determine who you will cop.

1-2 is one, 3-4 is another, and 5-6 is the last one. Got it?

Do not reveal who you picked for the cop until you post your results tomorrow.

Post # 236

WAIT. Scratch that. I want to save Mikal's role power for later.

Before I go back to do more research on Lunatic's past games, I want to say that I did finally get an answer from Lunatic: If a townie with a scum killing ability activated by lynching get's lynched during MYLO, town can still survive to see another MYLO/LYLO if the lynched townie's ability hits mafia.

So how about we just lynch Mikal and have him shoot Sui?

And Dragonball Z Mafia.

I will not be using Lunatic's first game, The Thing Mafia for analysis, given there was only one mafioso at the start of the game who was a recruiter. Mechanics wise, it is not similar at all to this game, and a comparison using this game may do more harm to my research than good.

Dragonball Z  Mafia also has a differing mechanic but it really only added on top what is otherwise normal mafia game, so it will be used. The mechanic in question is a "Powel Level" mechanic that allows players to unlock their abilities, but the design-wise the roles stay the same as a normal game. Unlike The Thing Mafia, which was designed with town's roles being turned against them in mind, this game was designed with clear cut town and mafia roles.

Will not be including Video Game Mafia due the game being two very large mafia teams being in the game, along with a few survivors. There is no town in this game, so it was designed to be more of a head-to-head between mafia factions instead of the typical informed minority vs. uninformed majority we see in this game.

Will not be including Midnighters Mafia either, due to their being one scum, and everyone else survivors or town (50/50 split). Not comparable.

And I will have to pause there, with Wal-mart Mafia being the only game of his so far I can look at. I will be able to check more games for similarity to this game later.

First, though, let's gather what we're looking at for this game, according to what has been claimed and what has been proven:

Mikal - Hunter

Mharman - Emissary

ComputerNerd- Cop

Pie- Hated

Whiteflame - Magistrate

Sui - Watcher

Greyparrot - Survivor

Supa - Gramps

*Starting with Overwatch Mafia and continuing onward

However, I can look at his other games before that, too.

I think I will.

I’ll let everyone know if any pattern shows up.

So, Pie or Supa, both have compelling arguments and counter arguments for why they could be scum. I just don't think both are.

Research is done. Can confirm Supa's claim of Lunatic using mafia roles as town makes no sense.

Thoughts on the idea of a scripted CC by Supa to end the game, but only backing off after thinking it was too risky midway through the plan, and then using a fake mod mistake as a cover?

Still looking to verify that. As for the recent interaction between Supa and ComputerNerd, I do think Sui is smart enough to script it, but only for Supa. You can't have ComputerNerd fake cop AND a fake CC/withdraw whatever from Supa.

But Supa did mention a mistake from Lunatic and I have seen Lunatic make one mistake modding already, so I still think the interaction could be real as well, unless mafia thought to fake a mod mistake too. Which is also possible, since a mistake on a vote count is easier to make than a mistake on a PM. 

If Lunatic did make a PM mistake, I want to say I am not trying to flame Lunatic here; if anything I'm grateful he put on this game. I've made worse modding mistakes, that's for sure.

My question is, if it's Sui and Supa, who is third? I don't think Whiteflame, but that leaves you and Mikal on the table to be the third. I would go for Mikal in this case, but I would lynch Supa first.

Still most scenarios in my head lead to you or Mikal, in which I pretty much always pick you. 

So I am changing my ideal lynch to you or Supa. Lynching Supa is a good way to test you, but we're in MYLO. We can't lynch someone just to test something anymore. We have to hit scum.

You know, something did come up when researching Lunatic's old games. Stranger Things Mafia, from four years ago. This game DOES look very similar the current setup we have here, with some changes of course. So a lawyer could be possible IF the characters are based on functionality in the show and not on occupation.

Lunatic did say he threw this game together, so why not mix up an old game?

ohhh true. But that would require mafia to know he was targeting Supa. Plus I now believe Supa is town based on his interaction with ComputerNerd (to be confirmed for me if I do find examples of Lunatic role switching in his games), so while I think godfather is possible, it isn't Supa's role. Lawyer COULD belong to a teammate of Supa's if he was mafia, but there is a problem with this as well. The most prominent lawyer character has already been revealed to be Airmax, and Airmax/Helen was a babysitter.

Your conversation with Whiteflame is interesting, but I take issue with this claim:

A redirect here has all of the benefits of the confusion it has caused so far, along with protecting a valuable mafia power role. It's obvious scum would want to protect their power roles, but the confusion is something I recall you said yourself mafia wants in Post #151.

Yeah but that confusion could lead to town going for some reversal anti-meta whatever play and lynching Supa. He'd be stupid to try it.

I must have missed where you posted this. What is the lawyer angle?

Still, I am combing through the archives to verify Supa's claims of Lunatic role swapping. Earlier I backed Supa up saying Lunatic did it in Overwatch Mafia, but a voter stealer/vote buyer/politician (which he gave to a town Soldier 76) isn't technically town or mafia, I just assumed it was normally mafia there. 

On a side note, this is Lunatic using Whiteflame's current role as a town role, so I think Whiteflame truly is not lying about his role.

Which leads me to a very crazy-sounding claim: Unless there is major WIFOM coordination by Pie and Mikal, Greyparrot is lying and has made the ballsiest fake claim in history (only Tvellalot's town bus driver claim can challenge it, but the difference is that Tvellalot was under pressure when he made his claim).

Why yes, I do research near-ancient mafia games if I feel like it.

Post #136 is a response to Post #126. Forgot to tag you in it.

And that's assuming Mikal picks the right guy to kill, too.

I do too. If Lunatic counts a mislynch on Mikal as goin from 4-3-1 to 3-3-1 (assuming MIkal is town) and ends the game before it becomes 3-2-1 (in favor of town), then town loses and the strategy fails.

But either way, a Sui lynch can't happen and a lynch on you or Greyparrot (because I'm legit starting to wonder if he made the ballsiest fake claim ever)v is too risky for town atm. So a lynch between Mikal and Pie is necessary for me. I think Pie is scummier than Mikal, do you agree?

Again there is merit to Lunatic flipping around roles’ alignments. He did it in Overwatch Mafia too, and that was before Supa and I even started playing mafia.

Still, Supa’s behavior in this situation makes me think he is there is merit to Lunatic giving him a town aligned mafia role, and Supa did just give examples of Lunatic flipping roles’ alignments around in previous games.

Oh good lord I am stupid. I was looking at where it says “blank” under alignment I. The box at the top right on the page and didn’t even notice what it said right at the top of the paragraph, my bad. 

Supa has no reason to lie. If he were scum he could CC this and some heightened suspicion on ComputerNerd could result in him pushing ComputerNerd to get the game ending mislynch but he WITHDREW HIS CC. And if Supa is telling the truth here, I conclude he is most likely telling the truth about being Gramps and Supa is very likely town based on behavior along with this new information. And ComputerNerd would be telling the truth too since he would have a motive to say Supa is guilty. And I don’t see them being in a scum team together either; Supa CC’d ComputerNerd and he would have no reason to bus his teammate if he were mafia unless he intended to pull it back and fake a mistake from Lunatic, but I don’t think that’s the case.

So I think both are town. But that would leave Pie and Mikal on a scum team together with Sui, which I don’t think is possible either. Pie just said we could lynch Mikal and have Mikal shoot someone. Pie has no reason to bus Mikal. I know I’m town and I think ComputerNerd being town + my claim of Russ and theme analysis should confirm me. Plus, I’d have no reason to try make ComputerNerd be more active if I were scum; upon getting the Emissary knowledge I would’ve told my scum teammates to kill him in the night if I were scum. For me to be scum, I would have to have been planning everything, including the Emissary claim and pressuring of ComputerNerd for activity that would back up the Emissary claim before he claimed cop. Do you really think the guy who forgot how a ninja worked would be capable of that? You could say I was planning to forget how ninja worked, but I am not capable of that. I even said before the game started in sign-ups that I was not good at the game.

But that only leaves two mafia, Sui and Mikal or Pie. So who’s fake claiming? Whiteflame? Greyparrot? Neither are a great answer, so if I’m wrong on a town read let me know and why.

I believe that honestly. I had to point out a mistaken vote count to Lunatic earlier. So I guess ComputerNerd did visit Supa.

You know, MafiaUniverse does say Gramps has no specific alignment, so whoever said it was exclusively mafia was wrong. I should’ve fact checked it earlier?

But this is no guarantee. Gramps can be scum or town, and if Supa is scum, he can CC ComputerNerd to make him our lynch. If Supa is town, ComputerNerd is definitely scum. 

This does make me consider the idea: What if ComputerNerd was told to noob slip and claim cop? Seems very risky from mafia, so not very likely, especially since the slip happened early in the game. But still it can be considered.

Unvote and do not revote

ComputerNerd got CC’d. What is happening?!?!

I thought of that too, but I am confirming it with Lunatic right now that the game won’t end. Waiting for a response.

I just don’t see how Charles Wilkes isn’t a magistrate. There’s no way he is JOAT, so the question will be scum or town magistrate. I think town based on Whiteflame’s behavior.

So JOAT must be someone else. 

Or ComputerNerd really is scum. But behavior and game theory tells me he is town.

Mikal and Pie. I am still leaning on Pie.

Mafia JOAT? Used something else in the night instead?

 Maybe like a redirect?!

Wait a minute, why wasn’t ComputerNerd roleblocked?

Ugh I think it’s between Pie and Mikal for me this DP. Leaning on Pie.

Like seriously how do you not vote Supa here?