Mharman

Yeah. You and Sui, so was Pie the third or did he give up? If he gave up, who was it?

cool. was it a 3-man team or just you and Sui?

Either way, probs GGs.

or are you town and just giving up, Pie?

We all know one is Sui, and I figured one was Mikal (admittedly for a different reason than reality- was tying him to his defense of Whiteflame), but you too, Pie?

Dang.

I don't think there's a separate faction. I think this is GGs.

What causes you to townread him so heavily?

Earlier I said the low odds of a town magistrate were questionable due to a small sample size. But I forgot that this town magistrate claim hinges on the existence of a redirector or bus driver, the investigations of which do have a much larger sample size. So the odds of a town magistrate in this game are still low with a method that can’t be discredited by pointing out the small sample size. 

To reiterate, there is a low chance of magistrates being town in games they appear in and there is a low chance of there being the bus driver or redirector that the idea of this magistrate being town hinges on.

Now let’s move on to theme analysis. Before we lynched Airmax last DP, I concluded the split was Navarros vs. Else. This was part of my reasoning for the lynch. But clearly that was wrong. I now think it could be Marty Byrde and allies vs. Everyone else. The character of Charles Wilkes is a clear cut ally of Marty, manipulating the vote that allows Marty to continue a casino project. 

Claiming magistrate and using it on an obviously scum teammate afterwards are both very risky gambits that a lot of scum teams would never pull. I cannot understate this. Whiteflame is an experienced player.

And let’s talk about theme here, too. Ruth Langmore was town, and she was Marty’s business partner. This could mean Marty Byrde could be a town role, so in this case there would be no evidence of Charles Wilkes being a scum character.

Supa has claimed gramps, a role which MafiaUniverse has said is exclusively scum. He

may have also had a scum teammate telling him to fake a mod mistake, since a modding mistake has not been confirmed. He is jumping all over the place and is now OMGUSing Pie out perhaps desperation to not be caught. And Buddy Dieker in the show is a terminally ill old man who doesn’t do too much in the show, so the possibility of a fake claim is there.

If Lunatic did include the Gramps role, he could flip it to town if he thinks it can be used as a town role. The town utility to the Gramps role is undeniable if Lunatic went that route.

Another thing is that a modding mistake is possible, given that I had to point out to Lunatic a mistake of his earlier. It had no bearing on how the DP ended, but it was a mistake nonetheless. As for confirmation on a modding mistake in Supa’s PMs, we will likely never get it from Lunatic. Confirming there was a mistake would tell town too much about Supa, and that in itself could be seen as a mod helping town too much.

Finally let’s talk about that OMGUS of Pie. This can just as likely be towny since he could be OMGUSing out of a sense that Pie is only going after him because he is scum. An incorrect notion for sure, but many town players have done this in the past.

Now let’s talk theme one more time. If Buddy Dieker isn’t a fake claim, he is an objectively townie character who only gets used by Marty.

First, I don’t see any reason to believe both are scum anymore after thinking about and typing up this post. Supa has no reason to bus a teammate in MYLO. All of the mafia could push for a single mislynch and end the game right here right now, and imagine it is what they want to do. Plus, Supa has been scumreading Whiteflame since last DP, when he first claimed magistrate.

Despite the number of paragraphs, the argument for Supa being scum is just as strong as the case for Whiteflame being scum. However, Supa does have a much stronger case for being town than Whiteflame.

First, if one is mafia, claiming town magistrate isn’t a huge risk until you use it incorrectly for town benefit to the point where you have to rely on the claim of a redirector or bus driver, which didn’t happen until the DP after he claimed it. So I can see why Whiteflame would maybe try it if mafia hadn’t thought of protecting Sui from getting lynched yet. As early in DP2 as it was, they likely hadn’t.

Second, if there was any time to take a risk for mafia, it could be now. One mislynch is all it takes. If they go all in and get it, they don’t have to worry about any repercussions of the risk next DP since they will have already won and there won’t be one. I know I said Whiteflame may not take the risk due to being experienced, but experience may also yield the knowledge of when to take such a risk, and that would be now if there was ever a time for the scum team.

Third, Ruth Langmore, although Marty was a father figure, she wasn’t completely loyal to him always. She tired to kill him at point in the show. So Marty doesn’t have to be on the same team as her, and is this on the table for scum, putting Charles Wilkins back on the table for scum.

With that being said, I’ve made my selection for now. It is a hard choice between Whiteflame and Supa, and I pick Whiteflame.

After re-reading the DP. I can see reasons why either Whiteflame or Supa could be scum, maybe even both.

You know, the first half of this DP went kinda fast. I want to reread it from an updated point of view.

Correction: Magistrate and votestealer are NOT the same. Disregard “votestealer” in my research.

I swear every time I have a neat idea I keep nearly ruining it by getting some small thing mixed up.

How about the Dan Snyder Clown Show?

Why are you gae?

ok.

Anyways, I'm going to bed.

We have tomorrow and the day after until 6. No need to rush.

Also, Supa can be panicking as town not wanting to be mislynched just as much as scum not wanting to be found out.

thank you

SIDE NOTE: an innocent cop still means something worth looking into. However, I don't know if the case of Supa can be solved this DP. Sure, there's a solid chance mafia is manipulating Cop results, but it's not a guarantee. I want more info out of ComputerNerd next DP.

Released my findings. Thoughts?

A JOAT has appeared in 60% of games I analyzed, and 46% of all JOATs were mafia. However, we already have one JOAT confirmed in this game, and only 33% of games with a JOAT had multiple of them.

So not likely, which means mafia likely has a limited amount of roles at their disposal. From, what we've seen happen in this game, these are the possible mafia roles:

-Lawyer or Godfather

-Magistrate or Redirector

-Roleblocker

First things first, let's focus on the Lawyer and Godfather. The more likely either of these roles are in the game, the less likely CompuerNerd's "innocent" cop result on Supa is true. Then I'll talk about the possibility of a scum magistrate vs. the idea of a town magistrate and a scum redirector, as it is critical to any decision on Whiteflame. As for roleblocker, I think it's a lock for this game that mafia has one and used it on ComputerNerd NP1, so I won't dig in to that one.

At least one of these two appeared in 87% of games I analyzed. Across the 13 games with one or both of these, there were 9 Godfathers and 8 Lawyers/Framers. So yes, I basically guarantee mafia has some counter to ComputerNerd's cop. Therefore, an innocent cop doesn't mean as much, but a guilty one might if either it is Godfather and no Lawyer/Framer, or if the Lawyer/Framer is a Lawyer and not a Framer.

For those who don't know, a Lawyer makes a target appear innocent to investigations and a Framer makes a target appear guilty to investigations; Lunatic has a habit of giving players both roles in his games.

Honestly, a mafia Redirector or Bus Driver is more likely than a Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, but not very likely in itself. A mafia redirector or bus driver appeared in 33% of games I analyzed. As for Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, we know it is in this game despite appearing in 13% of games I analyzed. Whiteflame has claimed responsibility for his role use on Badger last DP, and we know the effect wasn't just Badger because it is on Sui this DP. But this does not guarantee a Redirector or Bus Driver. And you know what is less common than a mafia Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer? A town Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer, which appeared in only 7% of games I analyzed. The only thing that makes this statistic questionable is the small sample size of games containing a Magistrate/Politician/Votestealer.

Either way, we may need to re-examine Whiteflame.

results almost done

dude chill. Anger does not help your case, it only harms it

This is to counter a lawyer/framer.

one of the 3 remaining after one of the 4 is lynched, yes.

Then who do you think scum is and why?

List of games I will be using and where you can find them in the archives:

75) Dragonball Z Mafia

92) Wal-Mart Mafia

103) Kill Bill Mafia

111) Redwall Mafia

130) Christmas Mafia

196) Themeless Mafia

209) Bartimaeus Mafia

224) Game of Thrones Mafia

235) Clash of Clans Mafia

259) Overwatch Mafia

277) Stranger Things Mafia

296) Dark Crystal Mafia

314) Stormlight Archives

335) Inverse Reality Mafia

343) Stephen King Universe Mafia

So far I think SUpa is the player we lynch and take that chance on. But I want be more confident in such a choice before I make it.

This does mean that we have to take chance this DP on someone, however. That is where my research on Lunatic's past games comes into play.

In the meantime, I need you to roll a die, ComputerNerd.

We are going lynch one of these four for sure this DP: Mikal, Pie, Supa, Whiteflame.

After one is lynched, you must roll the die to determine who you will cop.

1-2 is one, 3-4 is another, and 5-6 is the last one. Got it?

Do not reveal who you picked for the cop until you post your results tomorrow.

Post # 236

WAIT. Scratch that. I want to save Mikal's role power for later.

Before I go back to do more research on Lunatic's past games, I want to say that I did finally get an answer from Lunatic: If a townie with a scum killing ability activated by lynching get's lynched during MYLO, town can still survive to see another MYLO/LYLO if the lynched townie's ability hits mafia.

So how about we just lynch Mikal and have him shoot Sui?

And Dragonball Z Mafia.

I will not be using Lunatic's first game, The Thing Mafia for analysis, given there was only one mafioso at the start of the game who was a recruiter. Mechanics wise, it is not similar at all to this game, and a comparison using this game may do more harm to my research than good.

Dragonball Z  Mafia also has a differing mechanic but it really only added on top what is otherwise normal mafia game, so it will be used. The mechanic in question is a "Powel Level" mechanic that allows players to unlock their abilities, but the design-wise the roles stay the same as a normal game. Unlike The Thing Mafia, which was designed with town's roles being turned against them in mind, this game was designed with clear cut town and mafia roles.

Will not be including Video Game Mafia due the game being two very large mafia teams being in the game, along with a few survivors. There is no town in this game, so it was designed to be more of a head-to-head between mafia factions instead of the typical informed minority vs. uninformed majority we see in this game.

Will not be including Midnighters Mafia either, due to their being one scum, and everyone else survivors or town (50/50 split). Not comparable.

And I will have to pause there, with Wal-mart Mafia being the only game of his so far I can look at. I will be able to check more games for similarity to this game later.

First, though, let's gather what we're looking at for this game, according to what has been claimed and what has been proven:

Mikal - Hunter

Mharman - Emissary

ComputerNerd- Cop

Pie- Hated

Whiteflame - Magistrate

Sui - Watcher

Greyparrot - Survivor

Supa - Gramps

*Starting with Overwatch Mafia and continuing onward

However, I can look at his other games before that, too.

I think I will.

I’ll let everyone know if any pattern shows up.

So, Pie or Supa, both have compelling arguments and counter arguments for why they could be scum. I just don't think both are.

Research is done. Can confirm Supa's claim of Lunatic using mafia roles as town makes no sense.

Thoughts on the idea of a scripted CC by Supa to end the game, but only backing off after thinking it was too risky midway through the plan, and then using a fake mod mistake as a cover?

Still looking to verify that. As for the recent interaction between Supa and ComputerNerd, I do think Sui is smart enough to script it, but only for Supa. You can't have ComputerNerd fake cop AND a fake CC/withdraw whatever from Supa.

But Supa did mention a mistake from Lunatic and I have seen Lunatic make one mistake modding already, so I still think the interaction could be real as well, unless mafia thought to fake a mod mistake too. Which is also possible, since a mistake on a vote count is easier to make than a mistake on a PM. 

If Lunatic did make a PM mistake, I want to say I am not trying to flame Lunatic here; if anything I'm grateful he put on this game. I've made worse modding mistakes, that's for sure.

My question is, if it's Sui and Supa, who is third? I don't think Whiteflame, but that leaves you and Mikal on the table to be the third. I would go for Mikal in this case, but I would lynch Supa first.

Still most scenarios in my head lead to you or Mikal, in which I pretty much always pick you. 

So I am changing my ideal lynch to you or Supa. Lynching Supa is a good way to test you, but we're in MYLO. We can't lynch someone just to test something anymore. We have to hit scum.

You know, something did come up when researching Lunatic's old games. Stranger Things Mafia, from four years ago. This game DOES look very similar the current setup we have here, with some changes of course. So a lawyer could be possible IF the characters are based on functionality in the show and not on occupation.

Lunatic did say he threw this game together, so why not mix up an old game?

ohhh true. But that would require mafia to know he was targeting Supa. Plus I now believe Supa is town based on his interaction with ComputerNerd (to be confirmed for me if I do find examples of Lunatic role switching in his games), so while I think godfather is possible, it isn't Supa's role. Lawyer COULD belong to a teammate of Supa's if he was mafia, but there is a problem with this as well. The most prominent lawyer character has already been revealed to be Airmax, and Airmax/Helen was a babysitter.

Your conversation with Whiteflame is interesting, but I take issue with this claim:

A redirect here has all of the benefits of the confusion it has caused so far, along with protecting a valuable mafia power role. It's obvious scum would want to protect their power roles, but the confusion is something I recall you said yourself mafia wants in Post #151.

Yeah but that confusion could lead to town going for some reversal anti-meta whatever play and lynching Supa. He'd be stupid to try it.

I must have missed where you posted this. What is the lawyer angle?

Still, I am combing through the archives to verify Supa's claims of Lunatic role swapping. Earlier I backed Supa up saying Lunatic did it in Overwatch Mafia, but a voter stealer/vote buyer/politician (which he gave to a town Soldier 76) isn't technically town or mafia, I just assumed it was normally mafia there. 

On a side note, this is Lunatic using Whiteflame's current role as a town role, so I think Whiteflame truly is not lying about his role.

Which leads me to a very crazy-sounding claim: Unless there is major WIFOM coordination by Pie and Mikal, Greyparrot is lying and has made the ballsiest fake claim in history (only Tvellalot's town bus driver claim can challenge it, but the difference is that Tvellalot was under pressure when he made his claim).

Why yes, I do research near-ancient mafia games if I feel like it.

Post #136 is a response to Post #126. Forgot to tag you in it.

And that's assuming Mikal picks the right guy to kill, too.

I do too. If Lunatic counts a mislynch on Mikal as goin from 4-3-1 to 3-3-1 (assuming MIkal is town) and ends the game before it becomes 3-2-1 (in favor of town), then town loses and the strategy fails.

But either way, a Sui lynch can't happen and a lynch on you or Greyparrot (because I'm legit starting to wonder if he made the ballsiest fake claim ever)v is too risky for town atm. So a lynch between Mikal and Pie is necessary for me. I think Pie is scummier than Mikal, do you agree?

Again there is merit to Lunatic flipping around roles’ alignments. He did it in Overwatch Mafia too, and that was before Supa and I even started playing mafia.