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Mharman

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Posted in:
Ozark Mafia Day Phase 2
Current null odds:

Pie (90% chance of town)
Mikal (60% chance of town)
Sui (40% chance of town)
Supa (10% chance of town)
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Ozark Mafia Day Phase 2
My reads but in sports style because I am bored.

Clinched Town Pile: ComputerNerd, Badger, Whiteflame

Wild Card Third Parties: Greyparrot

Outside and Null Looking In: Mikal, Sui, Pie, Supa

Eliminated to contention for #1 Pick in the Scum Draft: Airmax
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And I ain't no Empath like seriously wtf is that bullshit
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@Mikal
Lol I can feel the irritation in your post. Inactivity really does infuriate you.

We need one more vote for Max though.
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@airmax1227
L1 now. Tick tock tick tock.
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@airmax1227
You are at L2. Last chance. Defend your innocence.
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@Mikal
I think theme analysis is not in Airmax's favor.

If Airmax is as busy as he says he is, he may have just town claimed a mafia character without fake claiming. Based on my current most likely theory of Navarros vs. Else, Airmax would easily be scum.

Also, this game is going nowhere with the inactives. I like the prospect of lynching an inactive who has a high chance of being mafia, and it may even be a risk we have to take win the game since such rampant inactivity from players (most notably Airmax) is hindering town investigations.

VTL Airmax
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Ozark Mafia Day Phase 2
I’m going into the Archives for Lunatic’s past games to find any patterns. Will present my findings after I get off work. Until then, I’ll lurk a little when I get breaks.

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Re reading current DP
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I just realized Lunatic never said the game would be simple, only the theme split. He said he threw together this game last minute. Idk how many power roles there are though. I get the feeling that someone is lying about even having one, but if I recall Lunatic has done some weird stuff before so this could be an all power role game for all we know.

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@sui_generis
Hey Sui, what is the relationship between Ruth Langmore and Marty Byrde?
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@ILikePie5
As for the your idea of me being scum with ComputerNerd, let’s just wait for ComputerNerd to hop on. If he has a guilty result, we lynch the guilty. He is confirmed cop and I confirmed town with him.
If he gets an innocent result we lynch someone else.
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@ILikePie5
On second thought, Marty could still be scum. Ruth wasn’t as loyal to him as I initially thought, according to further research.
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Again, based on theme analysis m,
Disregard the m. Wow I can’t type on my phone for shit.
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Again, based on theme analysis m, I don’t see a way Roy Petty is scum.

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Bam but based on theme analysis. I don’t think Roy Petty is mafia
Disregard “bam”. I have no idea what I was typing incorrectly that my phone autocorrected to this
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@ILikePie5
The only way ComputeNerd could be mafia is if he’s telling the truth on his character but not on his character’s affiliation or role. Bam but based on theme analysis. I don’t think Roy Petty is mafia. What mafia role would one even give him? To me, every role that makes sense for this character is a town one.
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@ILikePie5
1. Did Luna tell you outright that Roy Petty was town?
No. However, I think the current most likely theme split is Navarros vs. Else, which would make Roy Petty town. Even from a game theory standpoint, I think confirming a cop’s role once they claim and give their results was the purpose of my role.

2. Have you considered that it could be a counter to mafia using a fake character claim if they were given one?
While it could be possible some day in another game, it’s not here. ComputerNerd didn’t even use a fake claim. He just straight up claimed Roy Petty. You’d think he’d at least research a fake claim as mafia, but he was honest. Regardless of whether mafia was given a fake  claim or not, I don’t think they would use it on him. I think they would use it on a more experienced player who would be less likely to slip up.

3. What’s your justification for Russ as Emissary because I’ve never heard of this role.
Because on the show, Russ knew Roy was working for the FBI before more the major characters did. Roy lured him into a false relationship where eventually Russ let some secret slip and Roy revealed he was in the FBI to him and threatened to arrest Russ if he didn’t turn informant for Roy. The manipulative nature of Roy obviously doesn’t make him a good person but he’s not the main antagonist or even aligned with any of the big antagonists of the series. Just a guy who is trying to crack the crime code in the town. Even theme split wise FBI vs. Else makes no sense because there are only two FBI characters. I doubt there are two scum.
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@ComputerNerd
Full claim and night action result please
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@badger
I think Max is scum because of theme analysis. But I want ComputerNerd’s cop result. He better have one too.
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Also to narrow down our search for scum and to help with theme analysis, I will full claim here. 

My character is Russ Langmore. My role is the Emissary. It’s not really much of a power role if you can even call it that, but I was given knowledge at the start of the game that Roy Petty was in the game and ComputerNerd was the player who got him as a character. I realized based on game theory that there was likely a reason why I was given that knowledge, so I concluded he was a power role, cop being the most likely one. Although the prospect of him being a vigilante did cross my mind at one point. In one post I did mention bomb, but that was more just advice for future games since ComputerNerd is a noob.

It’s why I was pushing ComputerNerd so hard to be active; I wanted him to read the DP and select a reasonable cop target in the night.

I tried to breadcrumb in one post where I listed likely characters that were in the game and alluded to Roy Petty being a power role, and I added some theme analysis to make the bread in that post less obvious, but I think I ended up adding too much and making then bread in that post not obvious enough.
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@sui_generis
Thoughts on post #14?
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Theme wise, Ruth was allied with Marty for most of the series, and Jacob Snell I think was in opposition to Marty for the series.

So I think our scum team is Navarros and affiliates.
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Also, I’m confident Disc sacrificed himself for ComputerNerd.
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@ComputerNerd
Tagged ComputerNerd for activity since I expect he is a cop and has a result.
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@ComputerNerd
I honestly don’t regret lynching Earth. I am only bummed out they were town. Still the information we got and will get is something I can live with.
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Ozark Mafia Day Phase 1
Everyone should stop posting now.
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@Lunatic
Mikal, Pie, ComputerNerd, Badger, Sui, Greyparrot, and I have all voted for Earth. If I am correct, that is the hammer.
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@sui_generis
So according to that theme analysis Helen wouldn’t be tied enough to Marty to make her character on his side. Ok.

At this new take from you I would then say theme cannot be determined at this point in time. Not until DP2.
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@badger
We don’t even need a vote from Grey,m if we can get both Whiteflame and Sui to cast the last votes. Earth is at L2.
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@badger
Oh you did nvm
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@badger
You would need to vote Earth too
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@whiteflame
Yeah just re-vote Earth.
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@badger
I have no counter claims to make.
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@badger
CC? Does that mean counter claim?
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@badger
No Whiteflame unvoted and hasn’t gotten back on him
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If Earth reveals abilities and is believable, can we switch to Greyparrot? I don’t think we can, but I want to float the question out there.
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Or her idk
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Earth is at L3. Mikal, Pie, ComputerNerd, and I are all on him.
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And I apologize if it seems I am trying to take over. I just want to avoid a no-lynch this DP
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Would like to use DP2 to further analyze DP1 and NP1 and get rid of Greyparrot.
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@Earth
You have 30 minutes to reveal abilities. Reveal or get lynched.
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Not that I see 
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No objections.

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Actually I’ll extend until 8:30 before I stating pinging people again 
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Because let’s be honest: Earth’s defense was shoddy. And we don’t have the time to switch o Greyparrot.
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I say at 8:00 ET we start pushing for the outright lynch on Earth. He has about 15 minutes reveal abilities. 

Any objections?
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Again, we will likely need to get rid of Greyparrot DP2
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@ILikePie5
Possibly. But we still only have 5 on him. We need more if we need to lynch. I am down for an Earth lynch but we will like need to get rid of Greyparrot DP2.
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@Mikal
Sorry about the hasty unvote. Was just trying to be fast given the small amount of time.
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