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@Mikal
I did have a streak of constantly getting replaced out for a while… I think that was early DART years
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I did have an earlier theory about what he could be doing as scum specifically that my mind jumped to- an idea that he’s seeing if he can get away with claiming his real character. I like his speculation on certain players characters. The only time I’ve seen him do it as town is when he’s criticizing someone for being obvious asf with their softclaim- but I don’t think this is one of those cases. Not only does this look like a cheap imitation of some of his normal town behavior, it aligns with my theory that he’s trying to see if claiming his character is safe.
Btw this theory doesn’t even have to be true, it could all just be posting for the sake of it from Wylted
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Back to Wylted
I felt his vote on Moozer was opportunistic. Sure, I had a reason, but that doesn’t mean he needed to join in.
And finally let’s talk about what I’m NOT seeing from Wylted. Behavioral thoughts, not even a blurb about it. In past town games of his, I’ve seen him give quick thoughts on small things about other behavior- sometimes it seems like he’s trying to insta-solve, other times it’s just reaction baiting. None of that to speak of here.
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I’ll start with the nulls and move to the more confident reads. The less confident ones I’ll give teasers on and put the deep dives into other posts.
Austin + Moozer - Null for not having posted. I’ve read some buzz about Austin showing up online (double checked- he was online yesterday) but idgaf. I have a decent level of faith that both will show up and give something to go off of eventually. I guess, now that I type it out, we can think about if there’s an incentive to show up and say something (even something like “hi I’m busy”) brief when you pop online from Austin’s POV.
NOTE: Decided I should expand the double check to Moozer as well. He was also online yesterday.
If I start to townread just about everyone else it will no longer be null- I generally don’t assume the scum strategy is to do nothing and win, but if I start to think the more active players are all town, I’ll have to conclude this is one of those games where scum decided they were gonna be a bunch of Luigis.
Savant - Solid town. Way too much effort to be scum, tbh. It’s a near-obsessive level. I’m not bothered. I think his reads come across as honest, since he’s scouring details that I wouldn’t even care about. I think it leads him to overanalyze a few points, but that’s a sign of towniness.
Whiteflame - Lean town. Honestly as I was typing this up I was more confident then a lean. But right now, there’s not as much to go off of as I thought.
With regards to his interaction with Mikal, I hard townread that. It’s completely natural for him to react that way, and he did tell Mikal to fuck off (which is said to be a town tell, and I agree)- albeit in a much more polite Whiteflame-y way. The reads look natural so nothing sticks up. I guess the thing is, I thought there was more to go off of. Now that I’ve fully read through everything, meh. He still looks fine.
Although I do wonder how the presence of a safe fake claim for scum would change his scum gameplay. Even then, why soft? Cause now he’d have basically used up their fake claim by softing, when he couldve just saved everything about it for the worst case scenario.
Wylted - Hard scum. He came in and posted some fluff, and then some filler content about theme. Theme analysis isn’t inherently scummy, but it didn’t seem relevant to what was going on. It looked like posting for the sake of posting.
I did have an earlier theory about what he could be doing as scum specifically that my mind jumped to- an idea that he’s seeing if he can get away with claiming his real character. I like his speculation on certain players characters. The only time I’ve seen him do it as town is when he’s criticizing someone for being obvious asf with their softclaim- but I don’t think this is one of those cases. Not only does this look like a cheap imitation of some of his normal town behavior, it aligns with my theory that he’s trying to see if claiming his character is safe.
Although that makes me wonder if Whiteflame did just use up scum’s fake claim.
Downgrading Whiteflame to slight town.
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Buffer post to put reads at the start of next page where they’ll be nice and visible
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FYI I am typing those reads up. First post will be the nulls and confident reads, the others I’ll try to do deep dives on specific players one post at a time
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@Mikal
I don’t think I will ever tell you my name at any point ever lol
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98… Casey might be onto something, although all else with Pie looks normal to me
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@Mikal
I’m here and reading, periodically checking the current page while I catch up- rn I’m around post 105
Torn on you and Banana… more sus of you (Mikal) than I am of Banana… have a feeling something is there, less confident as to what
Whiteflame leaning town, fyi he could easily appeal to you as town bc I understand the frustration from his POV, the “let’s get Whiteflame to claim early DP1” thing def does ruin the fun for him, even as town
Casey reads town based on the character hint
Savant’s logic seems inconsistent in places, the effort looks good
Wylted leaning scum. Felt like it’s taking him a while to generate even the slightest of activity based reads… a lot of his posts up to this point are meaningless and do nothing… wondering what the intent of theorizing about filming locations. For example, if he noticed a trend among he and teammates’ characters, he may be trying to verify, which could help them determine how easy the theme split is to crack and whether or not they could get away with claiming their actual characters
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@whiteflame
What happened to the town read on me? Is it just the lack of reads that bother you? I’m working on it.
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@Savant
Don’t overcomplicated it lol. Just push claims out of people we sus… some people want to keep their shows a secret
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@ILikePie5
Mafia were given exactly one fake role claim, and one fake character claim this time around
Ok I probably read something wrong
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Only Savant bothered to engage. Wylted is a weird pick. No I did not get an impression off Wylted based on that one post he made at the start of the game lol
Initially I had felt Mikal was selling what he did from last game a little too hard… I also find it weird that everyone kept quiet the second I asked my questions from earlier, especially for someone who started the game like a rocket… but maybe that means he’s not selling it if he stopped?
The reads give me pause. They look legit, when I think about the two players he did choose to pressure. Admittedly I’m having an equally hard time reading him now.
I’ll think I’ll just drop my first impression and reset, look elsewhere for clues on him.
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And just like that, the lobby slows to a crawl, after a hot start…
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@Savant
Taking a page out of my book I see.
I have a first impression on someone, but like you I want to wait and see a little pit as well.
I guess I’ll say I have a first impression on someone. Guess who
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@ILikePie5
Yes and no. Scum still doesn’t like to burn all their questions early before they’ve gotten other townies to claim. The pressure can work- I learned that two games ago. I got lucky some people trusted me enough not to push for my full claim back there.
I think the current format incentivizes getting a few other townies to claim first. Not too different from a normal game tbh, but you can getting away with planning to full claim in the middle of the pack, instead of at the end in this format I think.
I think there’s a bigger question to ask here. I’ll leave that up to your interpretation. Curious what you’ll think.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@AdaptableRatman
Yeah I can agree with that RM.
Lunatic, I’ve correctly sussed/caught Whiteflame three times off his claims (other stuff too but the claims were always the first clue)… I’m not gonna count this one tho
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@Greyparrot
@ILikePie5
Cmon Pie.
Greyparrot, promise not to claim at the very start?
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@Mikal
If there was an MVP I’d nominate Mikal. He didn’t do all that much, but no one did more than he. Tbh, none of us had to do much to win this one.
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Bruh. So not only was Mikal being town rigged, but the PM mistake meant scum had their fake claims limited by the mod. I guess it was better than just letting them fake claims limited those things and get destroyed after the PM mess up, but still
Game was cooked from the start 🥀
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I think we can conclude that there is no specific way in which Whiteflame is bad at fakeclaiming- he just has woes when it comes to that, in every way.
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@Lunatic
Dude I fell for it at the end too cause I over analyzed something small I noticed
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Well we got a freebie. Whiteflame will recover from this I’m sure, That2 has some work to do
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@whiteflame
Dude I wanted that last read to be correct so badly because it would’ve been nutty
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@whiteflame
I overcomplicated things at the end. You just fucked up bigly. Sad!
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Moozer v Lunatic is gonna be hard. Still leaning Lunatic, but the small sample size with Moozer bothers me.
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But I finally locked tf in today and I think I usually know when Whiteflame is scum
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Honestly was just troubled by his claim and low activity last night
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Btw the three past scum games of Whiteflame I mentioned are all games where I correctly sussed him. I’m trusting myself here.
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Holy shit I think my read from yesterday was wrong
Whiteflame
So his claim sucks. I agree that he’s bad at fake claiming, but the reason is because he claims something specifically designed to keep him alive. Either something safe that wouldn’t raise eyebrows (Strengthener, Ace Attorney Mafia- obv we sus strengthener a lot now, but it was safe at the time), or it was something that was designed to disincentivize lynching him (suicide bomb - Bo Burnham Mafia). Meanwhile, his claim here lacks that trait.
Additionally, I don’t hate the justification, and bad justifications are usually a feature of his fake claims (other aforementioned games, plus Diary Mafia iirc).
It is for this reason that the claim is a departure from his past scum games. I had considered the idea of a slapdash claim, with the idea of an added JOAT to “roll for deception” under fast pressure from Mikal, but honestly, if he were to send up a prayer, he has no reason not to just leave his claim at commuter, which would be what Whiteflame would normally do as scum anyway.
Also, his night actions seem consistent with his role (roleblocker is objectively the best tool in his kit), and he did hint that one of his roles was the one he’d specifically use. The decision to say he has at least one interference role, but not reveal the other was a clever way of letting town know his role has something normally scum, while holding his cards.
Also I knew there was room for a commuter in the setup, it just felt weird because there’s normally only one type of those roles per game. But price how there’s no (claimed, anyway) protective roles- now hider + commuter makes more sense.
And the piece de resistance (which inspired this whole turnaround for me):
post 181 of DP1:
Car issue’s largely resolved. Going to eat something and then catch up again.
Seems innocuous, right? But it’s worth noting that at the time, That2 had been CC’d. You’d think since that2 made such a mistake, she’d be apologizing up and down the scum PM, and Whiteflame would’ve seen it. Instead, the first chance he gets to check in, he just says he’s going to catch up more later. I’m thinking if he were scum, he would make note of the CC and vote that2 before going to lunch, not after he comes back from it.
Again it might be too late, but if he flips town I know where I went wrong. And if he flips scum he was just a shitter this game, no offense. I am partially basing my read off of him not being terrible this game.
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Shit. I think last nights scumread of Whiteflame was horribly wrong
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Banana
Banana is town. The decision to leak PM info early was standard for her town play. F-16 was an old user on DDO and so the PM info can’t be faked if she’s that2’s teammate.
I did neglect the possibility of it just being a part of the PM but with another role, but considering that Banana has been willing to test her role, it can’t be a fake claim. If she were claiming her real role as scum she would’ve voted Whiteflame a lot sooner
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