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@ILikePie5
well im note taking rn
rn I'd say Wylted scum, Whiteflame torn/null
I mentioned what I had said about Wylted... his early game had none of his usual town tells, and for all his theorycrafting on theme and joining me on Moozer pressure (for whatever reason), it lacked behavioral reads which is something i notice wylted does early games as scum
for Wf i see somethings that look fine like his early game that looked good to me, but in the context of scum having a fake character and role claim, not sure
btw i didnt notice this earlier, but scum's fake character and role claim could be separate from each other... which invalidates a theory i had unpairing certain people and making whiteflame look townier... it still works to unpair Banana and Casey, since they both gave hints about character pretty early on
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@Savant
personally i would not link a google doc. speaking from experience.
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@Mikal
You unintentionally made a great point about my behavior...
"He'll have reads, look at the same things he already read, and come up with completely different reads."
It's a confidence things. When I'm hot I know it, and when I'm not, I second guess myself a LOT. This is something I do exclusively as town, because scum Mharman tries to mirror confident Mharman. Take a look at CoD:BlOps mafia, where I pursued the same few people for the most the time they were alive, because I felt they were targets I could get mislynched.
The unintentional point you made here is that second guessing myself might not be too helpful when I'm town... If I don't know what I want to do, I'm never gonna pursue anyone enough to verify my thoughts because I'm too scared of being wrong, which hurts town.
I'm gonna need to check over my previous reads one final time, but I'm going to start making some hard calls soon and yall can say whatever you think about them. Idk if you're town or scum, but consider this my way of saying "you right bro."
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@Mikal
had to go do something and that interrupted my catching up
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I’ve been skimming but imma be honest imma save it for the morning
My reads pretty much stand, except I gotta look at Pie a little bit and make a decision.
I don’t hate an earth lynch if there’s no better target but I gotta think the incentives for claiming something like that as scum are low…. The real question I’m grappling with is if Linatic would ever put that in a setup
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@Earth
Didn’t you say that you had considered full claiming everything earlier, but decided not to?
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@Earth
So, what’s the reason for deciding you might claim it from the start, and then backing off?
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@Savant
The question was before or after 2000. Exactly 2000 was never an option. I would have treated it like -1999 and 2000+
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First impression is that it’s a wild thing to put in a game, unless scum team is informed of one existing
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yeah I’ll just leave my vote on Moozer and see what happens. I can observe and read from whatever happens no matter what I do.
Btw I’m all over the place cause I’m still trying to piece it all together
Bye for now
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I would strongly prefer not to role claim this DP
That’s all for now, I have to drive somewhere
Will finish the deep dives into the others later
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Casey honestly isn’t as hard now that I think about it more.
The decision to out character information is once again interesting, looked towny but I went through a thought process where it could all be for town cred.
I saw the interactions with others, and what stands out to me is that she was nitpicking a few things, on Earth and Mikal. She does this on town cause she’s looking for every possible inconsistency, no matter how small.
That’s why I’ve decided she’s town.
On the subject of how much people would and wouldnt give out if they were scum, I think only one of Whiteflame/Casey/Banana can be scum. If we interpret their actions at the absolute worst, they’d all be basically fighting over who gets to use the scum fake claim, which makes little sense if they’re in a team together. I think we may have an unpairing. Might not be enough to say for sure, but worth noting imo
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@Mikal
Bc I’m not sure how I evaluate and compare inactives to those I only think “slight X” on
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It’s close around the midpack. But Wylted is still at the top with Mikal and Pie as secondary options
Earth Whiteflame Banana, all slight. Wanna say Earth seems the scummiest.
Don’t like lynching inactives DP1. Would I be willing to lynch a slight town read over them? Not sure.
Savant looks good as town with Casey being secondary.
And those are my gun to head thoughts
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Eh.
Swap it like this actually
Wylted
Pie
Mikal
Earth
Moozer
Austin
Banana
Whiteflame
Casey
Savant
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@Mikal
Wylted
Mikal
Whiteflame
Banana
Earth
Moozer
Austin
Casey
Savant
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@WyIted
Because I want to see who would join the wagon if I left it, and what their reasons are
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@WyIted
Now stop being dumb and get a vote on Moozer so we can get a claim and not have to worry about him at LYLO.
I’ll agree there’s utility in this… I believe my vote is still on him.
I’m not sure if I want to unvote or not. For now, I think I’ll just let the situation play out
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@WyIted
Fluff/theme stuff is fine, by big problem is that it’s all we got from you. Not even a blurb about others’ behavior.
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@iamanabanana
So, outside of Mikal, what are your thoughts on everyone else?
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Banana
So, Banana usually gives a small piece of information about her PM at the start of games, oftentimes an unnecessary detail. The “14 messages” thing in Diary Mafia, and last game’s mention of F-16 come to mind. In the past she has also just full claimed at the start if she thinks her role is normally a scum role.
This DP, she did give that her character is after 2000, for when the show launched. It’s not necessarily the same because it’s not specific- but it somewhat follows what she’s been doing. I guess my question here is, does she even HAVE to give out little pieces like that at the start of every games? Cause I’m not super convinced it’s reasonable to sus her if that’s lacking.
I will say that willingly limiting her own fake claim is a bad idea of she’s scum- unless she’s planning using the freebie Lunatic gave them? Perhaps that explains Wylted’s behavior-instead of a link to Whiteflame.
About to the incentives: There is an incentive to attempt to mirror her last town play, and I did cite her town tell last game, so she should know it exists. So the fact that is isn’t close enough to her meta is what bothers me- there’s a difference between mentioning something specific to your role, and giving general information that can be used to sort people.
Of course the point of the post was to do something we’ve been doing at the start of every game, and tbh it’s kinda harmless to town. I’m not gonna sus it based on the fact that it came unprompted. It certainly can be used for towncred. The incentives to do this vary, but all in all, I would say the incentives are more negative for scum, because it requires either limiting your fake claim in the future, or having to draw a little information from your safe claim (which I personally wouldn’t do unless I planned on using it in the future- seems like quite the selfish play as scum).
What does bother me however, is the fact that when she does jump in, it’s targeted at Mikal.
I’ll give a slight town for now because it looks naturally townie, but overall little that helps me here.
I think I want to see her reads.
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Well now that I’m less comfortable with my read on Whiteflame, he does go into the deep dive category. Although I’m pretty sure the thoughts on him I’ve already typed out count as a deep dive.
I guess my conclusion here is that he looks naturally town, but I don’t have enough to say he’s certainly. A few things I am wondering/paranoid? about, but if I had a gun to my head, pressuring me to make a decision, I’d say he’s town.
Moving on.
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@Mikal
I did have a streak of constantly getting replaced out for a while… I think that was early DART years
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I did have an earlier theory about what he could be doing as scum specifically that my mind jumped to- an idea that he’s seeing if he can get away with claiming his real character. I like his speculation on certain players characters. The only time I’ve seen him do it as town is when he’s criticizing someone for being obvious asf with their softclaim- but I don’t think this is one of those cases. Not only does this look like a cheap imitation of some of his normal town behavior, it aligns with my theory that he’s trying to see if claiming his character is safe.
Btw this theory doesn’t even have to be true, it could all just be posting for the sake of it from Wylted
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Back to Wylted
I felt his vote on Moozer was opportunistic. Sure, I had a reason, but that doesn’t mean he needed to join in.
And finally let’s talk about what I’m NOT seeing from Wylted. Behavioral thoughts, not even a blurb about it. In past town games of his, I’ve seen him give quick thoughts on small things about other behavior- sometimes it seems like he’s trying to insta-solve, other times it’s just reaction baiting. None of that to speak of here.
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I’ll start with the nulls and move to the more confident reads. The less confident ones I’ll give teasers on and put the deep dives into other posts.
Austin + Moozer - Null for not having posted. I’ve read some buzz about Austin showing up online (double checked- he was online yesterday) but idgaf. I have a decent level of faith that both will show up and give something to go off of eventually. I guess, now that I type it out, we can think about if there’s an incentive to show up and say something (even something like “hi I’m busy”) brief when you pop online from Austin’s POV.
NOTE: Decided I should expand the double check to Moozer as well. He was also online yesterday.
If I start to townread just about everyone else it will no longer be null- I generally don’t assume the scum strategy is to do nothing and win, but if I start to think the more active players are all town, I’ll have to conclude this is one of those games where scum decided they were gonna be a bunch of Luigis.
Savant - Solid town. Way too much effort to be scum, tbh. It’s a near-obsessive level. I’m not bothered. I think his reads come across as honest, since he’s scouring details that I wouldn’t even care about. I think it leads him to overanalyze a few points, but that’s a sign of towniness.
Whiteflame - Lean town. Honestly as I was typing this up I was more confident then a lean. But right now, there’s not as much to go off of as I thought.
With regards to his interaction with Mikal, I hard townread that. It’s completely natural for him to react that way, and he did tell Mikal to fuck off (which is said to be a town tell, and I agree)- albeit in a much more polite Whiteflame-y way. The reads look natural so nothing sticks up. I guess the thing is, I thought there was more to go off of. Now that I’ve fully read through everything, meh. He still looks fine.
Although I do wonder how the presence of a safe fake claim for scum would change his scum gameplay. Even then, why soft? Cause now he’d have basically used up their fake claim by softing, when he couldve just saved everything about it for the worst case scenario.
Wylted - Hard scum. He came in and posted some fluff, and then some filler content about theme. Theme analysis isn’t inherently scummy, but it didn’t seem relevant to what was going on. It looked like posting for the sake of posting.
I did have an earlier theory about what he could be doing as scum specifically that my mind jumped to- an idea that he’s seeing if he can get away with claiming his real character. I like his speculation on certain players characters. The only time I’ve seen him do it as town is when he’s criticizing someone for being obvious asf with their softclaim- but I don’t think this is one of those cases. Not only does this look like a cheap imitation of some of his normal town behavior, it aligns with my theory that he’s trying to see if claiming his character is safe.
Although that makes me wonder if Whiteflame did just use up scum’s fake claim.
Downgrading Whiteflame to slight town.
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Buffer post to put reads at the start of next page where they’ll be nice and visible
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FYI I am typing those reads up. First post will be the nulls and confident reads, the others I’ll try to do deep dives on specific players one post at a time
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