Mharman

Little but if you are town make sure you’re picking the right time to reveal.

Also noting for the humor of it that Banana got the longest message of anyone. Could be an interesting read after the game for me, but I can see why she didn’t wanna read all that.

You were successful NP2?

👍 

Ok. Please finish your full claim when everybody’s done… idt you gave out your character and entry synopsis yet. I wonder if you were hiding aspects of your role as well. 

I’m hesitant but I’m most likely to go for Jowbob this DP as well.

Why is Barney town?

Here’s my opinion: I’m gonna trust Savant when he said there may be four scum. I’m gonna trust he’s telling the truth about what Wylted told him. I think his role is explicitly towny. I think Savant is town.

Adding to the four scum theory… Owen died last night. If there’s four scum and they were confident of a win, but still had to submit night actions, they would for the one player that town doesn’t care for protecting in the night.

If there were three scum, I was under the impression they would try to team with Owen this DP, to turn their 3v4v1 into a 4v4 situation.

If they didn’t need Owen, they may be a group of four that didn’t expect Savant to come back. If they got overconfident thinking killing Owen was all the needed to do to win, it’s possible that’s the reason I wasn’t roleblocked last night.

I’m also gonna state that Austin is almost assuredly town given his legendary status, although we’ll see for certain once he enters the thread I hope.

For now I’m down to call Savant confirmed and Austin near-confirmed… shouldn’t take much to get him over the line.

We have 72 hrs to win this. Wait.

Not yet. If others are saying “don’t vote yet” it’s probably a sign that they fear the existence of a 4-man scum team.

I wonder if we are dealing with 4 scum here through. 

Although then it’s kind of CC with Savavnt’s role cause both are kinda protected from kills, in different ways.

I’m scared to think one has to be scum though considering last DP.

Although hold on: NK plus vig has two opportunists to kill town, although that requires a vig miss. Maybe it’s possible.

We need to full reset here on the mech analysis actually. 

I guess technically Joebob’s role isn’t a killing role since it just deflects a kill, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s a counter to Vader’s role.

I agree that Joebob is top priority. I’m shocked that there were two town killing roles. Surely there isnt a third one, right?

Hold your horses.

Oh you said you did. My b

Did you target Pie on both nights?

My character is called “theme” and my role is called “narrator.” The diary entry is part of some story Wylted wrote. It’s about a man named Nebula. Nebula works at prison in a space station that orbits the earth, filled with the most violent criminals of the post-apocalyptic city of New Olympus. Apparently he works up there because most of the city finds him to be an annoying ally, only there to risk his life working for the prison while New Olympus doesn’t have to deal with the criminals.

Wylted said in the entry that it’s an allegory for Israel. Nebula = Israel, violent criminals = surrounding Muslim countries, New Olympus = the western world.

The role functions as such: I can select two players, and will learn what actions they committed in the night. The catch? I get it in the form of a story, so I have to figure what night action is implied.

NP1, I targeted Pie and Vader, and my action failed. I will redact my NP2 targets and results until everyone has full claimed. Shockingly, my action succeeded last night. I thought for sure I was going to be roleblocked, and I think I was roleblocked NP1, which is why I said I doubted Barney was roleblocked last DP.

Huh

I think Thett's stance is more reasonable. It's not the keys themselves, it's how Lichtman applied them

Don’t know, don’t care. Germany’s been cucked for decades anyway. Centuries even. 

we'll see what happens I guess

Honestly I still prefer Banana go for you. No offense.

I think if we townread Austin and Whiteflame the game may be solved. Regardless of Banana's choice between Vader and Pie, we can just pick up Barney and Lunatic plus Vader/Pie/Joebob and we should win. Assuming Savant wasn't scum, that is.

Alright. Fair enough.

EBWOP

Regardless of your non-flip

Sure, but then I could see the point behind it, regardless of your flip.

Anyway, Vader's got his power.

ah.

*If I did fail to count properly

Wylted's last vote count just had Barney and Banana on Vader... idt anyone else voted, not that I recall. If I did Lunatic's mistake from last DP looks real understandable LOL

Typing out those notes, they were handwritten. Also I had some crazy conspiracy theories that I didn't feel were reasonable enough to include in my reads. You'll get those this DP if I finish them before Joebob hammers but I can hold off on those next DP. If you don't trust me, I will say that I am hella town. Please protect me doctor.

go ahead and hammer Banana

See above, but I want to give you your power. There's someone alive in this game who has no incentive to help town. If you're picking up what I'm putting down, I'd like to order a hit.

If you're town I prefer you go for Pie, see above under "the plan." I think town is being too quick to clear him and I'd like coverage from him being scum. If you're scum, sparing Joebob will look sus for him btw.

Greyparrot - Hard town.The reason is simple- his role was stolen, and no one has outed themselves onit yet. Scum must’ve tried to steal a role from him, hoping it was powerful. Idon’t see the point in a power thief being in town’s hands, since it can justbe used as a cop if town has it. From a game design standpoint, the role makesmore sense in mafia’s hands. He can’t be a third party either, since we havetwo of those. 

Owen - Third Party. Ithink it’s hard to think he’s lying about his role considering the presence ofa bad cookie giver. Could be revisited as a fake claim later, but seems highlyunlikely.

KEY READS 

Banana - Lean scum.Earlier I had thought it was impossible for Banana to be scum based on her 14messages- because according to Whiteflame, she wouldn’t be thinking about theexact number of messages if it was on discord. But this is so wrong. For one, discordsays how many messages one got, for two, the possibility of Wylted sendingmessages on DART, followed by a discord link is obvious. I do it when I hostgames. Earlier, I had considered that those 14 messages might be a detail forthe sake of saying something, but pushed it off. Now, it looks more reasonablethan ever. 

On the subject of herclaim, I hate how she CC’d and then took forever to out her power. Her poweritself? Scummy sounding- Whiteflame had a similar power in Bo Burnham andclaimed it, trying to spin it as town. There is a case for herbeing town: CC’ing is risky. If all she wants is a quick kill, it seemsunlikely and desperate. If she really can choose who dies, it could be towny.Didn’t Pie have something similar in Clash of Clans? 

And here’s another thing:Could she be lying about being able to choose? What if she kills the hammer? Imisread it earlier because of Whiteflame’s role in the aforementioned game, butif she’s lying, it makes sense. It could lure town into hammering. Depending onwhat her flip reveals, it could be a clue into her teammates. I think she’s scum, butit’s all worth thinking about. 

Pie – Lean town. I thinkwe’re too quick to clear Pie here. Yes, being told of Casey’s role could beconsidered a little OP if scum has it, but what’s the point if town has it?Casey gets confirmed regardless by virtue of her ability. If it’s so Pie canget himself lynched so Casey can reverse it, why didn’t he do so? It would’veconfirmed them both. I think there’s a real possibility of Pie being a day rolecop and scum. 

What I can’t wrap my headaround is why he thinks he needs to “lead town to victory” when his role hasbeen exhausted and there’s plenty of other townies that can establish a goodread. He thinks Savant was scum and that Banana, who is about to be lynched, isalso scum. Why can’t he trust town to close it out from there, if he dies? Withtwo third parties, surely he knows there has to be only one scum left. 

And yet, if he gets Bananaright, he’s likely to be town. I will say that I like how he gave me the timeto post all this- I feel like he’d rush me more if he were scum, although hedid rush me a little. 

Joebob – Lean scum. IfBanana flips scum he’ll be my top scumread. He’s given absolutely nothing inthe way of reads and his lack of CC on Banana or Vader irks me. Not only that,but his claim seems like a role designed to counter what Vader has. I’m gonnamake the call here and say they aren’t both town, and Joebob is the most likelycandidate for being Banana’s teammate. I appreciate his willingness to hammerin the event Banana is lying about her role, but it means nothing if she isn’t.

Also worth noting thatJoebob gave nothing useful DP1.

Finally, I don’t like howJoebob rejects the Banana vs. Vader 1v1. I know it’s technically possible forthere to be two killing roles, but not likely, let alone three. I don’t thinkit’s a false dichotomy, and I think scum has an incentive to reject it toprotect a teammate, especially with how Joebob is reacting to it. 

Vader – Lean town. A lotof this is based on my read of Banana. I think if she’s scum he’s town and viceversa. I do respect going for Savant since it was his top scumread, and I dothink scum had an incentive to go after Casey for the night kill. This does notmean he shot correctly, but two night kills does look good for him on paper. Ikinda feel it’d be OP for scum to have two night kills, but out of the threekilling roles, his is most likely to be real and town.

Lowkey his on/off FoS onme is fair from his POV and I’m inclined to townread it. 

In essence, I have twoteam theories going: Banana, Joebob, ??? and Vader, Pie, and ??? the former ofwhich is far more likely, but the latter not to be underestimated. I think itis good to have Joebob hammer to test his willingness, although if Banana liedabout her role I’m gonna be curious about a hard bus from Pie, although hewouldn’t be an instant scumread off that. If Banana is telling the truth abouther role I’m thinking it’s Joebob.  To cover for Pie beingscum however, I think if Banana’s town she should go for him. If she’s scum, I’mgonna be suspicious if she doesn’t go after Joebob.

Why do I say this? Becauseif she’s town there’s a high chance Vader is scum and Joebob is town. We can pickup Vader next DP, so I think if she’s town she’s better off covering for Pie.His role has no utility left anyway, so I have no problem giving him up. And ifshe’s scum I think she would know we aren’t lynching Vader tomorrow anyway, soshe might still go after Vader, but that would just expose Joebob.

Finally, I motion to giveVader his power. There’s some risk to it, but I think it’d be good to verifyhis role at least. If Banana flips scum as she most likely will, he's proven anyway and has a chance to catch scum, although there's a better play.

Savant – Slight scum. Iknow Savant’s dead, but since his flip hasn’t been revealed, so I’ll givethoughts. I notice off the bat he was townreading both Banana and Joebobyesterday. For Banana it’s more understandable for the time, but for Joebob Ithink it’s a weird townread. His PM also has the same length that Banana’sdoes. I also didn’t like how he kept pressing Owen last DP, and after Owenclaimed vanilla, he gave no option when he said he wanted claims in post 240 ofDP1. Additionally, some peoplehave been thinking the scum team are noobish, and I can see that with Bananaand Joebob. I get the sense that something went wrong with their plan. I alsothink a third scum player should help them not screw up as bad… so who could theteammate be? No offense to Savant, but I don’t think he’s proven himself yet.

Barney – Null. If we getboth Banana and Joebob and the game doesn’t end, Barney is next up for me. Idon’t buy he was roleblocked last night. I don’t like his interaction withGreyparrot either. And I’m not sure he was roleblocked. I could see him being ateammate of Vader and Pie too, although it’s less likely. DP1 I said that dueto his misunderstanding of Vader’s role, they likely aren’t the same team, butwith his obsession with getting Vader’s role online, I feel like he’s buddyingVader instead if he’s scum.

I guess he could be lax enough to let Banana andJoebob screw up like that. He hasn’t been playing that well for his read on Greyparrot,so letting his scummates mistakes pass could be possible from him.

Lunatic – null. Lunatic isless likely to be lax and he’s good at the game. I think he’d stop Joebob fromclaiming something that could CC Banana if he’s teammates with both. Morelikely to be a teammate of Vader and Pie. I guess I should be open-minded tothe possibility of both Barney and Lunatic along with Vader. His interactionwith Vader early last DP is weird but null, and if Banana flips town he doesn’thave it as bad as Pie. He says his read on Banana wasn’t all that big andbacked off, but why vote in the first place then? I liked it at first but now I’mthinking Austin has a point, it seems off. I also don’t like how he rejects theVader v Banana 1v1. 

Austin – Slight town. Likehis contributions so far. Will come down to his claim I suppose, but I think he’sgonna deliver on his promise of his role being extremely townie. I guess it’s possiblehe could be scum if it’s Vader and Pie or Lunatic, but not Banana and Joebob.From my experience, Austin will get on you as your teammate if he thinks you’remaking a mistake. There’s no way he lets Banana and Joebob screw up like thatif all the latter are scum. Although Austin not having a scumread until post147 of this DP is weird, and he also rejects the 1v1.

I guess some townies haveto be reading it incorrectly since so many of them reject the 1v1. Doesn’tchange the fact that scum has the incentive to blend in with it. 

Whiteflame – Lean town. Probably my hardest town readoutside of Greyparrot. Everything in Whiteflame’s reads looks reasonable, and Ilike how he took the time to say he did not steal Greyparrot’s role, which issomething Joebob and Lunatic didn’t do. Sure, Bio-engineer is scummy and scumhas incentive to deny, but I can’t fathom staying radio silent on it so I thinkscum has a greater incentive on that, which makes Whiteflame less scummy bycomparison. Only person who seems to acknowledge the 1v1 iirc.

Should end at 10:30 tomorrow.

We have all of tomorrow.

Fuck it. I'm gonna think myself to death if I keep this up. I'll finish it in the morning, I'm almost done.

You’re not the only person who can develop a correct read here.

As for Joebob, tell him to hold off until tomorrow. There is no need to rush a foregone conclusion. There is reason to wait, since myself and probably others have some things to say.

Why?

I’m posting my reads and notes when I get home. I’m also not hammering. My life is valuable.

 I will say that something about Barney being roleblocked is off… why not Vader?

The latter will take care of itself if Banana is town (seems unlikely at this point)… but both are worth noting.

I’ll do it when I get home

Not yet.