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@WyIted
yeah, I can see an Austin and Whiteflame team. I feel like you're not considering just how much Cerulean could be be flying under the radar right now.
Are you down for Whiteflame? I'd want the claim first, but he's gonna be my preferred lynch over Austin because my top team theory is Whiteflame Cerulean. The upside is that if I'm wrong on Cerulean, we've still gotten Whiteflame, who is also Austin most likely teammate for me if he's scum.
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@Lunatic
Ok, so he claimed only his role under no pressure then. Doesn't change the fact that he claimed under no pressure. I see your point about how his teammate could have signed off on his behavior, but it's just that: A "could have."
Sure, a scum teammate could just let Wylted do whatever, but in my experience scum tends to be more collaborative.
They could also not be knowledgable on the theme, but that assumes they haven't done research. At the very least, they'd know the theme split puts their real characters in the crosshairs, and claiming the role associated with said character is silly.
Wylted could have such a playstyle like what you're describing, and he could be so aggressive that he claimed vanillizer without any input from his teammate, without a desire to claim a character. Last time I saw Wylted as scum, he did not play like that. To me, the level of aggression being asserted here is a bit far, even for Wylted, and I also think it rests on too many assumptions.
And sure, there could be some strong investigative ability hiding out there. But that's gonna vary from player to player on whether or not they hide.
My point here is, your scumread on him depends on a perfect storm of Wylted being this aggro and brazen (in multiple differents ways so this could be split further), no teammate holding him back, and a strong investigative role just hiding out.
My townread on him is just more natural. He got mislynched for failing to SoP last game, and he adjusted by claiming at the slightest thought that his role could be negative utility, and therefore SoP-worthy. He is a cop, and he really did feel like clearing you. Themesplit is of little importance because it could be anything.
I get not everything is what it seems in the game of mafia, but sometimes, the "simple truth" is actually the truth. Too many things have to line up for your case.
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ok that wasn't much of a TLDR but whatever. I could've gone into more detail too.
goodnight
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Fuck it. I'm tired and I'm not gonna finish typing this out tonight.
TLDR Version:
Cerulean- All in all, I still scumread him. For reasons I laid out in DP1, I am very dubious of the idea that Cerulean wanted us all to speculate scum's roles based on some likely characters for reasons I stated DP1. I think it's a retroactive justification. I also think his weird spec into a disjointed mafia makes no sense and is more of a "look guys I'm doing something" than anything else. Oracle is weak role and Elva isn't on the main characters list. I thought about this for a while and given the context of his behavior, I think he was banking on more people having non-main character roles and was also looking for info on who had strong PRs by way of having main-ish characters.
Whiteflame- The most plausible teammate to Cerulean. Disagreed with many of his points on Cerulean to the point where they felt weird. Like his best defense was some gigabrain play he was alleging Cerulean was doing with basically no evidence for it. He also moved Cerulean's "hey look I'm doing something" speculation forward with some theory about a lone wolf that has a snowball's chance in hell of being true. I can see this interaction as scripted, or just mutual interaction for the sake of interacting with the thread. Seriously. He can tell Casey that looking into Cerulean fishing for info is a misleading rabbit hole, but speculating about how maifa might be separated or in a lone wolf scenario isn't? He also had a point about how some people could have offbeat chracters for a specific role, and Cerulean is the only person here who has one.
Austin - He rubs me the wrong way. The thing is, I can understand his scumread on Cerulean in DP1 because it's obvious. But his sus on Wylted this DP seems a bit opportunistic. I still don't understand why we want to lynch an un-CCd cop, and I will probably be fighting it until low time, assuming he's not effectively hammered by then. Going back to DP1, I felt he was too quick to give Lunatic and Cerulean a pass early in the DP. He was he went with the same sus on Cerulean everyone had... and then said he had an early townread on him. It makes no sense to me. At that time Lunatic had made like one post that really wasn't all that much imo. When I asked, his justification was basically "muh vibes." The thing is, he did eventually vote for Cerulean and pushing him more after I called him out on it. I doubt they're on the same team. All in all, I have a stronger scumread on Cerulean than Austin. At least Austin explained his thought process a little better in this DP. The teammate here is something I'm still thinking about. In this case my top teammate would be Whiteflame, but the connection isn't super strong. It's more because I'm scumreading Whiteflame more than anything else.
ADOL - Slight townlean, almost null but it's more of a noob pass. He isn't giving too much imo, and that's fine because I don't expect much more from him. I do agree that his input isn't easy for noob scum to fake at least. Take this one with a grain of salt.
Lunatic - Basically town confirmed off Wylted's results. For him to be scum, I'd have to believe Lunatic and his partner would had to have scouted Wylted's role to know that he doesn't vanillize scum, and then pretend like Lunatic was vanillized... and that Lunatic happened to have something that made him look innocent to investigations. Granted, it's all technically possible, but unlikely. Seriously, what scum team rolecops someone's who's already claimed? I'm shocked arsonist is town in this game, but whatever.
Wylted - He is an un CC-d cop. I've read a lot of Lunatic's points, but I just don't think they are correct. Couldn't a teammate talk him out of any stupid shit he'd do, too? The scumread him I'm being asked to assume he had impulsively claimed his actual role and character as scum for towncred out of literal nowhere. I don't even think Wylted is that ballsy. I really don't. Again, it also makes sense why he claimed. He said right out of the gate that he may have negative utility, and claimed it pretty quick when Whiteflame expressed some interest. Sure you could argue he was under some small amount of pressure when he claimed Galbatorix, but he was under virtually none when he claimed vanillizer. And again, it makes sense why he behaved the way he did when you consider he was mislynched last game, in part because he didn't SoP his miller role.
Earth - Obvious town, should be fully confirmed this DP. No scum claims a verifiable role like that to blend in. He claimed it from the start as an SoP too. The odds that scum has this role are next to none imo. Looks like Pie put the negative utility in there just for game balance.
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@whiteflame
Spent a lot of time reading and thinking. Typing out full reads now.
I would like your claim, yes.
VTL Whiteflame
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@WyIted
For the record, yes, I really was townreading Wyted so hard that I didn't even consider Wylted was lying. I still do townread Wylted pretty solidly... Lunatic, I see your point about Wylted's playstyle, but I'm not there with you on that. I think occam's razor says Wylted just expected everyone to believe his cop claim and a scum Wylted wouldn't. I'll keep it in the back if my mind, but I want to look at other options before revisiting this. I kinda want to take another look at Cerulean today. A claim from Whiteflame is fine too.
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@Earth
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
My character is Nasuada, I would strongly prefer not to role claim yet.
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@WyIted
wait, are you looking for a lynch or a claim first on Whiteflame? Cause I’m gonna be looking for a claim first if I get in on this
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@WyIted
Let's vote whiteflame. It's not that I blame anyone for putting me in their scum pile. Lunatic gave reasons, ADOL gave legitimate reasons. It's just that whiteflames responses have felt manufactured
Im still thinking about Cerulean (and would like to take another look at him today), but Whiteflame is on my radar to be a teammate. I’m down, lemme catch up first
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@Lunatic
I’ll give some updated thoughts and reads when I’m done catching up here. I’m still looking at my notifications
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@Lunatic
Btw he didn't claim without pressure. I pieced together that he was Galbatorix based on his role, and in my response to Austin made a point about how the role would make sense with him, then immediately after Wylted confirmed I was right (this is the behavioral argument you are asking for btw), as it made sense to me that he would need someones true name (IE Role in this context) in order to vanillize them, and he said he would use it on earth who was the only one who had claimed at that point. To me it seemed extremely convenient I happened to be right about his character, it seemed to me he had panicked and decided to just go with the claim and hope WIFOM would allow him to live, which it apparently has.
Thought about this point for a while. It’s compelling at least.
I see your point on his behavior, at least about the character claim. However, he hinted that his role was negative utility far before he was under any pressure, and all Whiteflame needed to do to get the role out of him was just ask. Why would anyone on a scum team go for this? All it does is draw attention to oneself, especially if you are claiming something that can be traced back to your character so easily, as was proven.
The only answer I can see you giving here is “for towncred,” but that doesn’t match up with the behavior. If he’s looking for towncred, why not follow through with targeting Earth? If he’s looking for something more than townread, I can see him switching targets, but that’s only if he expects to be townread afterwards… at which point I think it’s more likely he’s telling the truth and town.
How likely do you think it is that an investigative ability wouldn’t CC him here? Cause if I’m an investigative ability at this point, I would be CCing Wylted here.
As for the other half of that post, yes you are correct, arguing about your role is pointless now. I was just shocked that Wylted was outright calling you town because I hadn’t read his post about being a cop yet. I figured he would only be targeting you if he scumread you at the time.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
We don't know that for sure. Lunatic claimed that.
Wylted confirmed that Lunatic was his target, which was after Lunatic went after him. If Lunatic were mafia, he wouldn’t know he was targeted to begin with, since Wylted’s role doesn’t vanillize mafia.
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@Lunatic
@WyIted
Wow that’s actually crazy. Given how hard Lunatic was pushing Wylted before Wylted even announced his target and rationale… I’d have to believe there was some crazy scripted coordination for Lunatic to be scum. Wylted’s results clearly weren’t interfered with since Lunatic lost his powers, and Wylted has yet to be CC’d, so he’s probably not scum either.
Nevermind on all that I guess.
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@Lunatic
You are only considering his motivations as town. Why? As scum he alos had major reason to target me would he not?
I mean he would have a reason if he felt threatened by your thoughts on him yesterday. I’m considering his motivation as town first because I’ve been behaviorally townreading him since he claimed with no pressure. Granted, his role isn’t complete negative utility to me (so there’s a chance he really didn’t have a reason so SoP claim), but I can see why he did considering last game.
Im not goonna argue what roles would or would not exist in the game when I literally know my role and the theme extremely well. Wylted is saying I am town. What say you to that?
???
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I’m gonna see if I can read and double check what Lunatic is saying here later
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@Lunatic
In literally every interaction with Eragon, its clear that Murtagh doesn't want to be in service to Galbatorix and is there against his will. His character is kind of tragic for this, and the Varden imprison him almost immediately in the first book when they reach Farthen Dur.
Durza technically was forced to work for galbatorix too, but I'd say that character was evil regardless of being forced to or not. You can see that from the opening prologue when he kills a couple of Urgals just for failing him. Durza is just bad in general.
Hm. I guess that makes sense.
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He never indicated that, and note I was THE ONLY one scumreading him, so the only reason for him to do this was for omgus, which he wasn't doing publicly. So he was afraid of what I could be and knew I would proably target him.
You have a slight point in that he didn’t omgus you publicly, but he clearly was scumreading you, otherwise he wouldn’t have vanillized you.
Unless he targeted someone else and was redirected, at which point he’s town anyways for the scum team targeting him.
If you knew the books, you would know this is the perfect role for Eragon actually, brisngr was the first word of power he learned in the books, and also grants him an OP sword towards the end of the series as he discovers is part of his swords true name.
Ok but from a game design standpoint, I don’t see it. It’s pretty unusual and when Ive seen it, it was scum sided. Seems op for town in a role mad game too, when there’s so many other roes as well.
Tell ya what. It is a ballsy fake claim if you’re going for it, but I’m gonna need a damn good reason for it to be town here.
He never stated scum reading me once, where as my vote was on him for the latter half of the day phase. Why are you buddying wylted so hard?
He literally claimed with no pressure in a move that I can only interpret as him learning from last game. I’ve been townreading him for a while because of it. Nothing rubbed me the wrong way about him either. I’m going to repeat my question from last DP: Is there anything behavioral on Wylted that you were basing your thoughts on him on?
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@ADreamOfLiberty
i guess Durza is on the table if it’s good v evil yeah
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@Lunatic
Sure he was forced, but he played an antagonistic role for a long time. How much does the series really emphasize him as a hero?
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@Lunatic
Sure he was forced, but he played an antagonistic role for a long time. How much does the series really emphasize him as a hero?
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@Lunatic
Wylted is 100% scum. For one, he vanillized me.
He probably scumread you.
And I guess since I am vanillized I will just full claim, as there is literally no reason not to. I am Eragon, IE the main character and protagonist. Because of my sword Brisngr has the power the ignite flames with its true name, I am the arsonist. I can prime a player each night and can ignite it once only during the game. Last night I primed wylted because I thought he was scum, but I'll not be able to kill him now since I am vanilla.
Arsonist? I very skeptical of that. That seems like a batshit crazy role to put in this game.
And here you say how you targeted Wylted off a scumread. Why can’t he do the same to you?
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Would anyone here call Murtagh a villain? I would say he is, although he breaks free of his enslavement at the end.
If we call Murtagh a villain here, I definitely think it’s possible for Galbatorix to be town as well. I just don’t think there’s any reason to say Wylted’s scum, not even in the slightest.
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Would anyone here call Murtagh a villain? He kind of is, although he breaks free of his enslavement at the end.
If we call Murtagh a villain here, I definitely think it’s possible for Galbatorix to be town as well. I just don’t think there’s any reason to say Wylted’s scum, not even in the slightest.
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If the game ends soon I will
I’ve been posting during the 3rd quarter. I’m watching this whole 4th one though
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@Lunatic
I don’t know to what extent you scumread Wylted, but is your read all just based on his character claim, or is it more behavioral?
To me, he looks townie because he claimed with no pressure and it was because he was thinking there was negative utility to it. It looks like he’s avoiding his mistake from last game. I’m not sure that compulsive vanillize is sop, but I can see why he’d do it anyway.
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@Cerulean
Oh I missed that from Lunatic. Maybe there’s a slight point there, but at any rate I can understand why he’d look for it then if he’s working with his theory, considering he openly thought about it long pretty quickly. Still always good to double check. I will say that I do think Wylted is obviously townie by behavior and I don’t really understand what Lunatic sees.
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If it wasn’t obvious already, I do support a Cerulean lynch. I think was fishing for information and switched to looking at characters once he got pushed off that. I really do not like his logic about why he went for Post #7 at all. The fact that his character is apparently not main is a little sus. Given his behavior, I’m going to have to assume he was anticipating more people to have offbeat characters, or just did not want to get locked into fake claiming one. May also connect him to Whiteflame, who iirc made some point about offbeat characters being expected. Note: I am defining offbeat characters as characters not in the important characters list on the wiki.
I think Wylted and Earth are obvious town, more Earth than Wylted.
Lunatic is slight town for me. I really don’t think there’s much of a case for him. I like how he’s asking questions about stuff (specifically his questioning of Wylted, even if I townread Wylted), and his general contributions elsewhere.
Casey is reasonably town; I’m not ready to say solid town yet. I like how she pointed out what Cerulean was doing, and I think she’s been generally helpful, love the vibes.
ADOL is null.
Austin is a conditional scumlean if we are wrong on Creulean. I don’t think he’s explaining his thoughts well enough on his a couple of his townreads. Bit of a vibe thing as well. Null otherwise.
My other top scumread is Whiteflame. The vibes on him are fine, but the defense of Cwruean is weird to me. I firmly disagree with a few of his points.
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@Cerulean
I really don’t think scum has an easy way of guessing that.
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Sugar Bowl is starting, be back at halftime.
Go Irish.☘️
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@Cerulean
Oh there is his analysis on Earth’s claim too. Forgot about that for a sec
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@Cerulean
It really is just the double check. I don’t see the incentive from the scum team pov.
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As for Lunatic, I can see why he pushed for more information out of Wylted. It’s always good to double check these things. I don’t remember how often Pie has an offbeat theme split, so I’ll flip through the archives rq. Regardless, Wylted’s justification tracks imo and I behaviorally read him as town. I feel like Wylted’s town behavior should be semi obvious, but Lunatic wanting to double check Wylted makes me think this may be town v town. I’m more confident in a townread of Wylted than Lunatic.
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@Cerulean
Agree to disagree? With a series like this where there's only maybe two dozen or so possible characters and even fewer that make sense with a theme split, you can get a reasonable sense of at least the vicinity of what might be in play.
Not any more than what we could easily guess going into this game. We know it’s role madness, so mafia likely has a JOAT of some kind to counter all the roles town has. In most game mafia has a roleblocker so that should be a given, and they should have something to mess with investigative abilities. What else could you possibly get from there? All further speculation based on characters isn’t super reliable. Regardless, it should be noted that most people speculating with you, without that clarification, would be using their roles because it is the best method.
And besides that, speculation isn't just about being right, this sort of thing can also be used for social reads, yes?
I’ll give you that I guess.
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@Cerulean
I thought it was self-evident.
It really wasn’t.
Knowing and applying your own role doesn't help speculation as much as the possible characters do.
I wholeheartedly disagree. There are many aspects of any character that can be interpreted as different roles, and mods have been known to stretch justifications to make a character fit a certain role.
If I’m reading into what I think scum has, I’m reading into my own role. If it’s something that can hinder scum, I can reasonably assume they have something to counter.
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
Do you see any valid reason for him to not reveal his character at this point? The way I see it, that role can be extremely anti town, maybe can be pro town like you said, but the character and justification will do wonders for me especially being familiar with the series.
this is a fair point and I can see why Lunatic pushed this. The thing is, I would sooner believe Galbatorix is a town character than Wylted is scum. He claimed with no pressure at the slightest possibility of someone thinking his role is negative utility. This doesn’t look like a vallsy fake claim, it looks like learning from game to game
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@Cerulean
My intention was that speculation would be based on characters that might be in play. For instance, Galbatorix, the main villain of the series, doesn't really show up until the later books- so that role could be something that grows stronger over time or activates in late-game.
That might be fair, but why didn’t you say that in Post #7?
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@AustinL0926
Kinda, yeah. Most off meta, he feels different than his town game, it's a lot less proactive in behavioral analysis.
Yeah.
Luna's efforts would help town for sure, dunno why it wouldn't?
Not really the character list. I don’t think it’s super helpful. It’s all stuff anyone can look up, it doesn’t help read anyone.
I see his push on Wylted, that’s a bit more helpful, even if I’m not sure o agree with it.
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I’ll post some reads when I get back from this round of golf. I don’t know if I’ll be there for end of the DP since I’m going to a football game later today as well, but I’ll have the time in between to contribute I think
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@Casey_Risk
Anyway, what do you think of the current situation with Cerulean. Also, what are your thoughts on Austin and Lunatic. I’m indecisive on them.
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