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@whiteflame
That's why I said, most, not all. I'm aware there's some townies who would've gone for that. However, the decision is so ridiculous that I think there has to be scum on that wagon. I don't see how in a given pool of only townies, Wylted gets lynched there. Therefore, scum had to have been present in that lynch. Regardless, it doesn't change the fact that I had every incentive to be opportunistic in that lynch if I were scum, regardless of what townies did or didn't support it. Given the previous DP, there was a very real chance of another no-lynch, and I decided I was okay with it because I townread Wylted that hard. As mafia, I would have been incentivized to keep us in evens by lynching him.
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Who has the stronger PR between Austin and ADOL that is. I’d say I’m at 60-40 in favor of ADOL rn. I don’t know what their characters are for sure, but if they’re not fake claiming characters, Arya does sound stronger than Oromis I think.
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If I am scum I don't defend Wylted as hard as I did. He was an easy mislynch for someone in my position. I could've flipped on him when Lunatic was cleared, I could've let Lunatic "convince" me over the course of the DP, or I could've voted him at the end just to have a lynch. I didn't.
Wylted was town and it was obvious, I still don't understand why yall wanted to lynch an-unCC'd cop who just cleared someone and made one of the dumbest possible decisions in targeting Lunatic if he was scum. Combine that with how he got mislynched for not SOPing miller last game, and to me it seemed completely natural that he would float the idea of claiming his role (and claim it after only one person asked) if he felt it even had the slightest amount of negative utility.
Because of how obviously town Wylted was, Wylted's mislynch is the type of lynch that only happens if scum is hard pushing for it. I refuse to believe most townies alive would actually go for it if the scum team wasn't looking to convince them. A few might, but I really think most won't.
I've done a lot of thinking on this and I'm thinking it's ADOL and Austin. I think both scum have to be on that wagon, and Cerulean and Whiteflame's behavior has more town explanations than the former two- particularly in ADOL's case in which I essentially have to derp clear him in a case where I think his behavior is more likely noob scum. However, I am not decided on who to lynch first since I think the odds of Cerulean buddying Whiteflame here are extremely low, almost to the point of impossibility. It really comes down to who I think has the stronger PR, and I haven't given that much thought yet.
I'll try to force myself to be more in-depth on this in the morning, but right now, I'm going to sleep. No promises, but I will try.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Well it looks like Mharmen, you, and I all distrust each other too much to go after Cerulean/Whiteflame.
Never said that. I'm undecided. I will say that this most recent post isn't looking good for you. Regardless, I'll still have to weight the two team combos in my head.
So to collapse to a plan of action I'm going to assume Cerulean/Whiteflame are town. It would be a long con indeed if they were scum.
Literally all that needs to happen is Whiteflame claiming a role and Cerulean confirming it the next DP. This is a bit of a stupid argument.
So here is my attack: Let's lynch Mharmen. You can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen if I lynch Mharmen. Assuming that Mharmen is scum (and if he isn't town loses) then the last round Whiteflame and Cerulean will have to choose between you and me.
The lack of self awareness here is crazy. "You can't lynch me if I go after Mharman!" to justify an attack where all you need it one mislynch and it could easily be you and Austin. Honestly if I conclude you're scum at the end of this it'll be because I'd think you're trying to frame me as a teammate of yourself in MYLO where you only need one lynch to win.
So if you're town and serious about ADOL/Mharmen = scum, you have nothing to lose by going along with lynching Mharmen. I say the exact same thing to Mharmen about Austin.
Ignoring the fact that this applies to you too from their POV, lol
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Plus it had the benefit of me having to do very little if it worked.
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@whiteflame
I was hoping scum would be fearful I was about to go for them and hard lock onto me. The reason I did this is because last game I noticed how Pie had a very raw reaction to my townslip and realized that scum sometimes shows their hand in late game DPs.
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@whiteflame
I didn’t get what I wanted out of that. It was a reaction test. No one acted in a way I felt was expressly scummy.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
@AustinL0926
@Cerulean
See post #56
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Honestly I haven’t been thinking about this game much. I’ve been kinda burnt out on mafia and the only reason I signed up was because I don’t recall playing any of Pie’s games before. I’ve been forcing myself to play. Yes, other things are bothering me as well.
All this to say: Don’t expect me to have some massive in-depth analysis on the situation.
My 2 cents here is that the teams are either Whiteflame-Cerulean or ADOL-Austin.
Cerulean doesn’t clear Whiteflame if he’s scum, and Whiteflame doesn’t show up as innocent to Cerulean if he’s scum, unless they are working together. They are either both town or both scum imo. I don’t believe in Whiteflame being town but Cerulean being scum anymore because Whiteflame clearly believes Cerulean is town and Cerulean would be risking absolutely nothing not clearing Whiteflame in that situation, since he and a teammate could fence sit and vote with or against Whiteflame knowing there will never be enough votes to lynch him. Even if his teammate goes down he just keeps Whiteflame alive DP5 and wins off that.
I haven’t liked Whiteflame’s behavior, I haven’t liked Cerulean’s behavior, and I haven’t liked Austin’s behavior all game long. And recently I haven’t been liking ADOL’s behavior so I’m kinda suspicious of everyone.
I see the point in taking risks so I’ll be taking one shortly. If I’m wrong the game ends here and town loses, if I’m right yall can pick between me and my top scumread and the game is either lost or won there. Either way it’ll be over soon, which I’m happy about.
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@whiteflame
@Cerulean
ok.
"Acknowledgements"
now we wait and see
In the mean time, lemme think on ADOL and Austin
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There's one scenario I may have to consider both being town and there's a 50% chance it happens even if both are town.
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Regardless, I still think there's one scum between Cerulean and Whiteflame. Two weak roles that are somewhat investigative (in that they can be used to town confirm someone) in a game where Wylted's role can be used to town confirm tow townies, plus Earth's role town confirming himself.
I just don't think there's enough room for all that. There's an outside chance the setup was fumbled like that, but I'm gonna need a strong town case for both and I haven't seen one for either, outside of Whiteflame's claim being very stupid if he's scum. I haven't liked either's behavior all game.
I'm not sure one being town necessarily clears the other, but I'm undecided on Austin and I don't townread ADOL as hard as I used to, so if one's scum there's a good chance the other is town based off that.
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@whiteflame
Does you role still work or no longer work*
I could tell Cerulean the word if he's not able to get it
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@whiteflame
I know the word. Does your role still longer work if I say it out loud?
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I think Pie was watching the Cotton Bowl. He’s a big Texas fan. He’ll prolly close the DP whenever he gets back.
I wonder if he actually went to the stadium…
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@ADreamOfLiberty
VTL Mharman, like I said; I've got nothing, but maybe this will convince Whiteflame we aren't a scum team. Won't be on for the rest of the phase.
??? ok Im not his teammate but him saying it out loud ruins that if he's trying to disassociate... maybe I am giving him too much of a pass hold on
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
@Cerulean
My 2c here is that ADOL had a good opportunity to claim a solid protective role like a doc or jailkeep but didn’t. I have seen nothing scummy in him at all, so I have no reason to think he is scum.
Lunatic, your logic on Whiteflame asks me to believe Whiteflame made a very egregious mistake that, quite frankly, I think scum Whiteflame would avoid. I haven’t liked his behavior at any point this game, but this is a bit much. If he’s capable of finding an obscure role, spinning it as town, and somehow getting off Scot-free, why isn’t he capable of seeing how risky such a claim is, and making something else work?
At this point my POE contains Whiteflame, Austin, and Cerulean. I’m actually leaning against lynching Whiteflame, but then I have to assume the scum team is Cerulean-Austin, which requires me to believe that Austin would be willing to bus his teammate like that in DP1. Yes, I did find the fact that Austin gave a clear reason to scumread Cerulean and then said he townread him to be suspicious, but at the end of the day, Austin was an early adopter of the Cerulean wagon once the votes started going.
So, if I can get a good reason to townread either of them, I will be willing to vote Whiteflame with you, since i essentially have to conclude he is a teammate of either Cerulean or Austin and made that mistake.
Cerulean and Austin, the floor is yours. Give me a good reason to townread you, or I’m going for your lynch.
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@AustinL0926
It’s a passive role. If the singer dies, a random townie’s PM is revealed to the scum team.
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@Lunatic
@ADreamOfLiberty
What’s the justification for singer?
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I was expecting a protective role. Felt like I wasn’t the only role that should be able to stop a night kill here. Guess not.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
That is not what I was expecting… I’m gonna second Lunatic’s question here.
I’ll say what I was expecting after you answer.
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As long as ADOL’s claim isn’t egregious, I’m down to say he’s clear. Especially given the claims we have here.
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@AustinL0926
I obviously was not notified of anything.
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@AustinL0926
Why not motivate ADOL? He also didn't want to claim.
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@Lunatic
Do you go out of your way to make noobs scum on their first game? Wylted says it’s a dick move to make noobs scum in their first game and says he wouldn’t do it.
I just adhere to pure randomness. I think that’s what most mods do today. I would hope anyway. My pov is that influencing what noobs can be results in games that can be cheesed simply by asking where the mod would put a noob.
I can’t speak for all mods of course, but Ive seen this conversation before. Iirc most people in that convo took the side of randomness. That may have been a conversation about team balancing tho- but I think it was about noobs. Regardless, if you’re not tf2-style auto balancing teams before the game starts as a mod, you’re probably not designating certain affiliations to noobs either.
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@Lunatic
It’s also possible that neither exist because of Wylted and Earth’s roles, but then I’d have to argue two people on the same scum team claimed roles that can be a soft CC of each other- although Cerulean doesn’t seem to think there’s such a CC that can actually be made.
If it’s Whiteflame it’s most likely Austin that’s the teammate. If it’s Cerulean it gets tricky because it’s either that Whiteflame claimed something that could be used to CC his own teammate, or that Austin was willing to lynch his own teammate DP1 (I know Austin had a questionable townread of Ceruean DP1 after laying out a good reason to sus Cerulean, but he was on the wagon when I’m not sure he had to be by the end of it). I guess ADOL exists too, but he’s not an easy scumread rn.
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@Lunatic
No i both prime and ignite in the night. I have unlimited primes, only one ignite.
Doesn’t matter anymore. Just got told that bulletproofs are immune to bullets only.
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@Lunatic
But Elva had lied to her about it if I remember correctly, Nasuada basically changed what was supposed to happen by being pure unadulterated badass.
Ah. Well I’m no theme expert.
If you’re wondering what the question I asked Pie was, I asked if my bulletproof would protect me from non-lynch day kills, like from your role for example. I haven’t gotten an answer yet.
You ignite primed targets in the day, correct? That’s how I remember Supa’s behaved when had it in a game a few years ago.
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@Lunatic
Given that both Whiteflame and Cerulean’s claimed roles can be used to confirm a townie, and that Wylted’s role already can do that too, I don’t think both of their claims can be real. I consider both roles to be pretty weak, too, while Wylted’s is strong imo. I think there’s only room to pair one such weak-ish role with Wylted’s role. Plus, Earth’s role also exists.
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@Lunatic
Also, if you need any more reason to believe my claim, I will note that Nasuada being told she was gonna survive is fitting. Not sure if that’s the point you were already making when you said that, but I’m noting it here.
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@Lunatic
That’s interesting I guess. What do you think are the odds Whiteflame went for such a claim? Because he just made a very good argument to me about why he wouldn’t go for that claim if he’s scum.
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@whiteflame
That point above is pretty convincing. I still don’t like your behavior from earlier, but I can see that this claim would be pretty stupid from you if you’re scum. I guess I’ll go reread past DPs and see if I went wrong anywhere on you… should do that with everyone tbh
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@whiteflame
And, lastly, if someone dies during the DP, I'm the obvious cause of their death because I've outed my role.
Noted
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@whiteflame
So you're thinking that I used my role on someone as scum, it failed to kill them because it's a 50-50 chance, then I just gave up on trying this DP and gave away the role claiming that it's town instead and I was RB'd, which also destroys any chance of my being able to use it this DP and get another coin flip?
No? I’m saying there’s a possibility you used it and claimed to be roleblocked. That doesn’t destroy your chances of it working.
It would be pretty careless to draw the obvious heat I knew I was going to get by claiming this role just to avoid a rapidly dwindling possibility of being CC'd when I'd have role and character information in hand. I've made bad moves before as scum, but this might top them.
This is your best argument, and it’s on my mind. But the thing is, this can be something scum does when they really need to get some claim. I guess my biggest hang up here is the context of everything else I’ve been scumreading you for. I just don’t think I should suddenly clear you just because you may have a bit of a point in your favor.
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But then why wouldn’t he find something else that’s obscure and not voodoo lady… hm. I haven’t liked Whoteflame’s behavior at any point this game, but the choice is damn stupid for any fake claim
That doesn’t make it stupid for a spin though, not entirely. It’d be risky but he can go for it
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@whiteflame
Hold on a sec, can’t you just you just claim your actual role, spin it as town, and pretend to be roleblocked for towncred when you weren’t rb’d at all? Who’s to say you didn’t actually use it on Lunatic, or someone else?
I can see you doing this or just digging up the role to avoid being CC’d if you used up your role inquiries and didn’t like the options.
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God I keep thinking I'm gonna hard-solve the game in an instant... I need to slow down
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@whiteflame
I think we at least need a claim from ADOL and Austin before we go any further. I don’t blame you or anyone else for finding my claim sus, I just don’t know how you would think I’m actually the Voodoo Lady and I would fake being RB’d twice in a row rather than trying to kill my target with it. If you want to believe I as scum would seek out such an obscure scum role, modify it, and present it to you as though it were a town role, then I’m kind of flattered honestly. More work than I’ve ever done as scum for a fake claim.
hmmmmmm. This is a good point.
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