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If the game ends soon I will
I’ve been posting during the 3rd quarter. I’m watching this whole 4th one though
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@Lunatic
I don’t know to what extent you scumread Wylted, but is your read all just based on his character claim, or is it more behavioral?
To me, he looks townie because he claimed with no pressure and it was because he was thinking there was negative utility to it. It looks like he’s avoiding his mistake from last game. I’m not sure that compulsive vanillize is sop, but I can see why he’d do it anyway.
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@Cerulean
Oh I missed that from Lunatic. Maybe there’s a slight point there, but at any rate I can understand why he’d look for it then if he’s working with his theory, considering he openly thought about it long pretty quickly. Still always good to double check. I will say that I do think Wylted is obviously townie by behavior and I don’t really understand what Lunatic sees.
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If it wasn’t obvious already, I do support a Cerulean lynch. I think was fishing for information and switched to looking at characters once he got pushed off that. I really do not like his logic about why he went for Post #7 at all. The fact that his character is apparently not main is a little sus. Given his behavior, I’m going to have to assume he was anticipating more people to have offbeat characters, or just did not want to get locked into fake claiming one. May also connect him to Whiteflame, who iirc made some point about offbeat characters being expected. Note: I am defining offbeat characters as characters not in the important characters list on the wiki.
I think Wylted and Earth are obvious town, more Earth than Wylted.
Lunatic is slight town for me. I really don’t think there’s much of a case for him. I like how he’s asking questions about stuff (specifically his questioning of Wylted, even if I townread Wylted), and his general contributions elsewhere.
Casey is reasonably town; I’m not ready to say solid town yet. I like how she pointed out what Cerulean was doing, and I think she’s been generally helpful, love the vibes.
ADOL is null.
Austin is a conditional scumlean if we are wrong on Creulean. I don’t think he’s explaining his thoughts well enough on his a couple of his townreads. Bit of a vibe thing as well. Null otherwise.
My other top scumread is Whiteflame. The vibes on him are fine, but the defense of Cwruean is weird to me. I firmly disagree with a few of his points.
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@Cerulean
I really don’t think scum has an easy way of guessing that.
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Sugar Bowl is starting, be back at halftime.
Go Irish.☘️
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@Cerulean
Oh there is his analysis on Earth’s claim too. Forgot about that for a sec
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@Cerulean
It really is just the double check. I don’t see the incentive from the scum team pov.
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As for Lunatic, I can see why he pushed for more information out of Wylted. It’s always good to double check these things. I don’t remember how often Pie has an offbeat theme split, so I’ll flip through the archives rq. Regardless, Wylted’s justification tracks imo and I behaviorally read him as town. I feel like Wylted’s town behavior should be semi obvious, but Lunatic wanting to double check Wylted makes me think this may be town v town. I’m more confident in a townread of Wylted than Lunatic.
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@Cerulean
Agree to disagree? With a series like this where there's only maybe two dozen or so possible characters and even fewer that make sense with a theme split, you can get a reasonable sense of at least the vicinity of what might be in play.
Not any more than what we could easily guess going into this game. We know it’s role madness, so mafia likely has a JOAT of some kind to counter all the roles town has. In most game mafia has a roleblocker so that should be a given, and they should have something to mess with investigative abilities. What else could you possibly get from there? All further speculation based on characters isn’t super reliable. Regardless, it should be noted that most people speculating with you, without that clarification, would be using their roles because it is the best method.
And besides that, speculation isn't just about being right, this sort of thing can also be used for social reads, yes?
I’ll give you that I guess.
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@Cerulean
I thought it was self-evident.
It really wasn’t.
Knowing and applying your own role doesn't help speculation as much as the possible characters do.
I wholeheartedly disagree. There are many aspects of any character that can be interpreted as different roles, and mods have been known to stretch justifications to make a character fit a certain role.
If I’m reading into what I think scum has, I’m reading into my own role. If it’s something that can hinder scum, I can reasonably assume they have something to counter.
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
Do you see any valid reason for him to not reveal his character at this point? The way I see it, that role can be extremely anti town, maybe can be pro town like you said, but the character and justification will do wonders for me especially being familiar with the series.
this is a fair point and I can see why Lunatic pushed this. The thing is, I would sooner believe Galbatorix is a town character than Wylted is scum. He claimed with no pressure at the slightest possibility of someone thinking his role is negative utility. This doesn’t look like a vallsy fake claim, it looks like learning from game to game
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@Cerulean
My intention was that speculation would be based on characters that might be in play. For instance, Galbatorix, the main villain of the series, doesn't really show up until the later books- so that role could be something that grows stronger over time or activates in late-game.
That might be fair, but why didn’t you say that in Post #7?
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@AustinL0926
Kinda, yeah. Most off meta, he feels different than his town game, it's a lot less proactive in behavioral analysis.
Yeah.
Luna's efforts would help town for sure, dunno why it wouldn't?
Not really the character list. I don’t think it’s super helpful. It’s all stuff anyone can look up, it doesn’t help read anyone.
I see his push on Wylted, that’s a bit more helpful, even if I’m not sure o agree with it.
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I’ll post some reads when I get back from this round of golf. I don’t know if I’ll be there for end of the DP since I’m going to a football game later today as well, but I’ll have the time in between to contribute I think
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@Casey_Risk
Anyway, what do you think of the current situation with Cerulean. Also, what are your thoughts on Austin and Lunatic. I’m indecisive on them.
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@Casey_Risk
Well my year started out being scared as shit and walking into my uncles’ hotel room to make sure Uncle #2 was there (he drove to NOLA and met us as the airport).
He was on Bourbon Street for the new year. Thankfully he left hours before the guy in the truck came.
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@whiteflame
??? I think you’re reading this weirdly.
Post #7 from Cerulean is where the idea is floated that we all speculate on what scum has. Since we’d obviously be basing our speculations on our abilities, we’d be unknowingly outing our roles.
The only real chances town has to mislead scum here are to speculate something that mafia has that is not based on what the townie actually has, at which point the point of discussion is ruined. I highly doubt that we were all subversively being asked to mislead scum by speculating what they have based on what we don’t actually have. Simplest explanation is that he was just fishing for information.
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@whiteflame
I'm pointing out that what he was doing doesn't necessarily feed info to scum, at least not in as straightforward a manner as you're saying. It would not be the first time someone had lied about their role in an attempt to get a CC on scum.
I don’t see how’s baiting scum into any sort of CC. He literally just started the DP asking people to speculate on some roles. He didn’t ask people to reveal their roles, he asked people for their thoughts that would likely reveal something about their roles. Obviously scum isn’t gonna push for information too directly. That is completely different from what you did last game, where hid a power you had from scum in your claim.
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As I said, I wasn't sure. Objectively speaking, it's a specific enough mech post that it could go both ways, but my gut was telling me that the depth of thought going into it was pretty unlikely to come from a player who's already informed about the mechanics of mafia communication. That being said, the only possibility that I would consider explicitly scummy coming from Cerulean is if that mechanic is already in the game and Cerulean is just TMIing it, but I find that relatively unlikely in view of the "asking questions" thing in the OP, as mentioned earlier.
Well to me it just looks like he’s finding stuff to say that doesn’t help much. That doesn’t really answer my question though. Do you still have the light sus on Cerulean from earlier?
As for Lunatic, I read that as null because it doesn’t do all that much to help town imo. The only difference between he and Cerulean is that he isnt subtly asking others to out their roles, then looking for other stuff. I will say that I like what he saying about Earth earlier
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@whiteflame
I see where you're both coming from on this front, though I'll note this is not necessarily the case. It would not be the first time I've seen some "speculate" on the existence of a set of roles that included their actual role in an attempt to deceive mafia
Where are you getting the idea of some plan like this from? To me, it just looks like Cerulean was fishing for role info, then went for some lesser info once that was rejected.
I also don’t understand the weird mechanics speculation- I would be shocked if any of he’s going on about is in this game. It feels completely useless to me.
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, he would know such a soft claim is risky
Sent the post too soon
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Honestly the fact that Cerulean came up with the character claim idea doesn’t change much for me.
He literally went into the idea after being told roles were tied to characters. I think we kinda fell for it.
The only wrench here is that claiming a non-main character off the rip would put him in the line of fire. Unless he was speculating there would be more people with side characters
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Oh he said contains negative utility, not that it is entirely. Ok
Still not certain on him but that removes the piece that was weird to me, so I guess that’s a point in his favor
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The thing about Wylted is that I can at least see why he’d be open to claiming negative utility considering last game
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@AustinL0926
Question: It looked like you had an inkling of a sus on Ceruean of your own. Why townread him so quickly?
Same with Lunatic. I didn’t think his post was all that alignment-indicative.
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Like I don’t get the point of saying he is negative utility but somehow it’s not sop
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@Cerulean
Why's that? If our roles are closely tied to our characters, then it stands to reason that the evil players also have roles that are closely tied to their characters. So if we can peg some likely characters, we might get a good idea of what sort of evil roles there are to deal with.
You proposed the idea in Post #7 before any of that was said. The reason I don’t like the idea is because mafia can tell who has what roles based on what they speculate mafia might have.
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I like Whiteflame’s idea of asking if everyone has an important character. Mine is on the wiki list
I don’t notice Earth showed up. Null.
That’s all for now.
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Lunatic null. Cerulean feels off and I’m going to look into him more when I get the chance (I absolutely hate how his role speculation idea). Casey slight town (mostly for pointing out what Cerulean may have been doing). I like Whiteflame’s vibes, although I do note what he said to Casey earlier and I can see a connection between him and Cerulean.
I haven’t thought much about Austin and Wylted yet and I look them later before I look at Cerulean again.
I am making my way through an airport rn since my father, uncle, and I are going to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl.
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@Castin
I remember you were once interested in this
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Also, current season is ok. I like the new map, the guns less so. The mobility items annoy me.
I’ve been dropping Shining Span.
Also, the rappers in Remix was annoying, but C2S2 still holds up. Got me a few more wins with that mingun. Getting to drop into Misty Meadows again was great.
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@Shila
The three posts above you were made by advertisement bots.
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