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Yes, I know you didn't say that but you were about to
Was not!
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Also no Casey didn't get to use her ability to recruit someone because that would require her to sacrifice herself and if she sacrificed herself she would not have made it to the chopping block. Stop overthinking shit, Mharman.
Lmao. I know. I’m kinda understand why Casy wanted to hold onto it. Glad we got her yesterday.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
As for Barney v Whiteflame, I’m going to think for a second at least. I’d prefer scum to die today instead for surviving for some BS to happen in the night.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Yeah I had a feeling you’d go for Wylted the second you mentioned Wylted could commute.
My ass did not really care if Whiteflame died in the night. Tbh it would’ve simplified things for me. Would’ve made a vote on Barney quicker.
This works.
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@WyIted
The math we do at a subconscious level is far more powerful that Calculus. Just look at the math required to catch a ball
I get what you’re saying, but the problem with listening to my gut too much last DP was that I had a heavy confirmation bias for what ever would satisfy my gut read, and it totally wrecked my thought process
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@WyIted
Dude I haven’t taken any high school math classes in years, so shit. I did last a stats class last year in college tho. I was decent at that.
Why?
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Another thing worth mentioning is that, with all the discussion yesterday, we never really decided that Whiteflame’s character/justification for being a cop made sense. We all just didn’t like the prospect of lynching a claimed cop. At best, we decided that the justification wasn’t 100% obvious bullshit… but we were all still skeptical about it, at least that’s how I felt. I don’t think anyone here would disagree with me on this.
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@WyIted
True, but they’re also all on the weaker side with the exception of Whiteflame. At least in my opinion.
I buy that Casey is scum but the teammate is something I’m not sure of. I give Whiteflame a slight edge over Barney.
You’re my top town read and Disc is a close second.
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Ok so yesterday I as just mentally checked out when I said this
Also, at this point I’m convinced my ability to read when town is utter shit so don’t expect much analysis from me
Maybe it’s not the best but I cant just not play the game because I’m not good.
So I’ll give analysis, but I’ll try to do in a way that doesn’t fall into the same pitfalls as before.
1. Overcomplicated things
2. I put too much stock into my gut
3. Spent way too much time arguing and not enough considering others’ viewpoints.
So I’m gonna try to listen to others more and keep things a bit simpler (Occams Razor and all). My gut tells me something’s off, I’m not gonna try to look for something that satisfies it, I’m gonna listen to my mind more.
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@WyIted
Honestly let’s use the rest of our time this DP to discuss and VTNL at the end of it. Mostly speaking for myself here, but I think we shouldn’t repeat the same mistakes.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I’d be fine ejecting Casey from the ship. I trust Wylted and I still heavily townread you
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@Discipulus_Didicit
The character is blacksmith. I said building earlier in DP1.
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@WyIted
Because I did kinda hint that I had a strong PR when I refused to claim DP1.
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The reason why I wanted to give a doc to Disc was because I was thinking I would be the NK, and that he could save me with it.
I hinted at this to Disc with a post toward the end of DP1.
I hinted at this to Disc with a post toward the end of DP1.
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@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
I can give a 1x commute, a 1x doctor, and 1x priority action to anyone of my choosing. I believe I have only one of each ability to give.
I was thinking about giving Disc 1x Doctor, but was going to think on it more given the result of DP1 surprised me. Before I even submitted any action, I was told I was told I was roleblocked.
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@Casey_Risk
Sure. I have a JOAT ability where, instead of having multiple abilities I can use, I can gift multiple abilities to others.
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@WyIted
My only guess would be some WIFOM because I’m an easy target at this point with how badly I fucked up last DP.
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@WyIted
Ohhhhhh I get it. You even saw his soft claim earlier. That’s what Pie was talking about at the end of DP1. Yeah you’re town.
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Also, at this point I’m convinced my ability to read when town is utter shit so don’t expect much analysis from me. I’ll just tell ya what I know for sure. I anticipate being on everyone’s lynch list next DP, so I’m doing an AMA now.
Maybe you’ll see that I’m just shit town when I tell you my thought process throughout DP1.
My only scumread at this point is Whiteflame, because
1. I was roleblocked and I don’t know if there are two roleblockers.
2. Pie scumread Whiteflame, and I need to trust him more.
If Wylted gives me a reason to believe he’s town confirmed I will probably believe it. Honestly Wylted and Pie being on the same wavelength all of last DP makes me wanna trust his reads… because if Wylted and Pie saw each other as town, maybe they both have the formula down for spotting other townies.
Anyway, ask away.
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@WyIted
Please explain why you are town confirmed. I don’t get it.
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I’d prefer to use as much time to discuss in the DP as possible before VTNLing. We have to do it this DP, but I don’t wanna be hasty.
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And looking back, it was really silly of me to underestimate the information we’d have this DP if we had no-lynched.
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And since both Pie and Savant were town, I didn’t even get the information I wanted. I was hoping one of them would be scum, so I could figure out a teammate.
So no we have little information, and a MYLO.
I should’ve listened to Pie. His plan was better.
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So I was reading too much into the thought of a scum slip and Pie did just do the mental shortcut thing that Wylted was talking about. Amazing.
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@Savant
True. That’s part of my reasoning on why I no longer think Whiteflame is scum. For the rest of it, I will not say anything more than I already have.
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@ILikePie5
Luna said he did what he did in his previous games, which is basically here are 2 roles: one is in the game and the other isn’t. Good luck. It’s a 50/50 shot vs you possible lynching another important town role.
No he didn’t. He said he likes to give mafia hints and in his past games he has done that in a variety of ways. It’s easy to infer that he gave mafia hints from Post 26, but saying the exact type of hints he gave is a bit of a reach, unless you have some inside information. Slip #2.
Also, it was my idea to lock people into categories so the characters are limited. So yes, I purposely restricted my options.
That is meaningless if you like whatever you were planning on full claiming if you had to.
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@ILikePie5
There were 3 votes until you unvoted. That’s more than enough cover.
Even the people voting were hesitant. That means nothing.
Scum Pie would’ve loved to lynch a Town Cop.
Scum Pie also loves his town cred. If pushing too hard on a potential cop looks scummy, scum pie will back off.
Your confidence is wrong. And when you do realize I’m town, what information is that going to provide you?
If I’m wrong, I gain the knowledge of exactly that. From there, I can follow your thought, because I don’t think anyone you’ve accused would jump on some hard-bus-each-other idea with you.
What information though?
Your flip. I find your flip in particular to be valuable. In the unlikely event you’re town, your flip would be one of the keys to finding the real mafia… the other being who you thought were scum and consistently pushed to lynch.
No no. In your plan, if I flip innocent, we will have one lynch and that’s all. With a VTNL, tomorrow we have NP results as well AND a higher probability of lynching scum.
NP results aren’t going to be that great heading into DP2. Unless Savant solidifies his confirmation, but he is unlikely to get the chance to do so. Because of that DP2 isn’t going to be the easy wealth of information you say it is, unless we have a lynch result from today.
The odds of an NK prevention areA) LowB) Even if successful, we get NP results and information to make a far more informed decision than today.
1. I would rather kick the can down the road on a VTNL for those chances of a prevented NK.
2. The information we have DP2 will be much better with a flip today. If you’re guilty, we can keep looking for scum there. If you’re somehow not, then we will have to do it DP3. All in all, I like the chances of you being scum, and I think we will head into DP2 confident in our chances if you are lynched.
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@Savant
I still don’t think Whiteflame’s justification is all that great, but I feel better about him being town given the context of other things that have happened in this game. Read between my lines please.
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@ILikePie5
Forgot to tag. Btw, I’m not asking for your claim because it isn’t very useful to do so. Scum team has hints about what to claim, finding one to make a suitable justification for, can’t be possibly be that hard for you in a game with so many potential characters and roles. Especially since you know not to come with any justification short of perfect, after having accused Whiteflame based on his earlier.
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The only reason I was hesitant was because of the Cop claim. You were fine lynching him even after that.
Everyone was hesitant to some degree. Even I said we should wait until morning, even unvoting to avoid a hasty hammer. But you can’t use that to argue you are town, when literally everyone, town or mafia, is going to show some. I’m not even going to argue my innocence based on that, I think there are much better reasons to townread me.
I could’ve joined you and Disc, but I chose to sleep on it and make a decision in the morning. And what do I wake up to? Scum Pie would have a blast lynching Town WF who is a claimed cop.
That’s not what you woke up to. That’s what I woke up to, and I ended up finding your slip instead. You woke up to my accusations, at which point the scenario has changed.
So I’m scum for proposing we VTNL instead of agreeing to lynch a claimed Cop because my plan was kill WF at night? #Logic
Just saying you would’ve benefited greatly from a VTNL. Which is important in the context that you normally wouldn’t propose one. Town Pie is not this scared to keep the game moving forward.
Right now is better so we get 2 lynches on our terms with max POE. Whoever scum decides to kill also gives us information.
Whoever scum kills will be whoever gives us the least information. That’s not reliable.
So you want to VTNL when odds of catching scum are higher and vote when odds of catching scum are lower? Got it.
We are going to be having the same conversations with a new flavor DP2 if we VTNL here. Our odds will not improve. And with how confident I am in my read on you, I like our odds of catching you now.
Under my plan, in the worst case scenario, we have a 40% chance of catching scum. Scum love your plan because when they mislynch me here, an experienced townie dies and town is basically forced to VtNL tomorrow.
Idk where you figure that 40% from. And again, even if you are shockingly town and we VTNL tomorrow, we will be entering DP3 with very good information and high chance of catching scum.
And they can do that even if we VTNL here, which only benefits our numbers because we get another POE opportunity out of it.
Not true at all. If the kill is somehow stopped, we are left with an even number heading into DP2. Your extra “POE opportunity” is just another VTNL. In your plan, if you are innocent, we will have one lynch and two NKs (might as well be three because the mod kill gives us Jack and shit) to look at. As Disc and I have been saying, that plays right into mafia’s hands. In my plan, if we get an NK prevention, it means we have one less VTNL
A VTNL right now correct from probability perspective and an information perspective where unless the scum team is exactly Savant/WF, we have information, better POE, and a safety net in a mislynch.
Given everything above, this is laughable.
So you’d like to sacrifice POE for a bunch of information that can be WIFOMed as you kindly pointed out for the reasoning why I wouldn’t vote WF
Nope. Like I said earlier. We can tie actual votes and lynches to the behavior of others and make more accurate reads based on it. A mafioso cannot WIFOM their way out of a sticky situation as easily if they are on record voting for a lynch that happened. To repeat, if we spend all this time saying who we want to lynch without doing it, we are just blowing a bunch of smoke up each others’ asses.
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If we lynch Pie and are correct, we may have to VTNL at some point after to help find the teammate. In this scenario, I’d still prefer to gain information sooner rather than later, and I’d rather delay VTNLing, hoping that we end up not having to.
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Back to the present:
Obviously because of 420 we will now have to VTNL at some point. Now or later?
Well, to be honest, I still want to invest in future DPs by ensuring that we have as much information heading into them as possible. If we are wrong here and faced with a MYLO that we have to VTNL on DP2, then so be it. We’d be entering DP3 with a wealth of information, which is much better than VTNLing here and repeating the same discussions with a new flavor tomorrow.
There is another reason, however: The chance of a failed NK. While there’s a lot of variables in this game and a lot is possible, I suspect there is at least one protective role among us. That player has the chance to shut down an NK and rebalance the numbers headed into DP2, which would be an ideal 5v2 at that point.
Of course, everything I’ve said above assumes we lynch Pie and is innocent, which I think is highly unlikely. It is something to think about for those of you who want to VTNL. You may be right that a VTNL is correct, but it doesn’t have to happen now.
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@ILikePie5
So here’s the question. If Pie is scum and WF is town, why is Pie hesitating to vote WF?
I will admit this gave me pause for a moment. However it is entirely WIFOM. It means little because you were hesitant at a time when most were, and obviously being the only one to not show at least some form of pause is going to look very suspicious.
To anyone reading this: Remember when my top scum reads were Savant and Whiteflame? Let’s turn the clock back to that time so I can properly ask: What would a VTNL do in a world where Whiteflame and Savant are town?
First, town is likely to enter a 6v2 headed into DP2. Not ideal. On top of that, Whiteflame would likely be dead, and Savant roleblocked, leaving him as the most likely lynch of the day. Another townie dead NP2, and town is facing a 4v2 MYLO. They are forced to VTNL for a second time, and are left with a 3v2 LYLO headed into DP4. The two VTNLs wouldn’t have gained much information, and all town would know is that they were wrong to accuse Whiteflame and Savant. But since Whiteflame was lynched in this timeline, no one can be easily held accountable for his death, since all five remaining players can say that they held off on lynching him. No one can easily be held accountable for Savant’s lynch either, given that the whole town would’ve been in agreement in that DP2. So town is left with a guessing game, and they need to be correct twice in a row.
A perfect scenario for the mafia members who proposed the VTNL.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Not much happened while you were gone. Some more people popped in and they want to VTNL.
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@Lunatic
If an extension is wanted I can grant one if three or more people want it, since the day phase was stalled until I woke up.
I’m not against it. I’ll vote yes.
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Why? For a nonexistent scumslip? Did you even bother asking if scum were provided game information? Or are you just going to sit here and be pretty and lynch me for no reason?
I gave other reasons. It’s not just the slip, it’s everything else that in context of your slip, makes me believe it is a slip.
Anyways. 420 is going to be modkilled and he’s obviously town. Who instantly sussed him earlier today? Savant.
I can’t even blame Savant at this point. To me, it looks like 420 joined just to troll. With that in mind, he was completely anti-town, just not in the way Savant said.
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I hope Lunatic gets here soon. I pinged him on Discord, hoping to speed up that process. If you’re reading this, that’s your cue to do so as well.
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@Barney
Eh. I’m glad ur back and I’m happy you read the brainrot…. it’s a necessary evil that may help your decision making.
Again, please vote Pie. I under you may want to read more first like Whiteflame, but please do at some point at least.
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@whiteflame
Do you have any thoughts to post or are you still thinking and/or typing?
Just trying to get the lynch on Pie here.
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