Mharman

We don’t have to lynch Lunatic just yet. Let’s wait for a claim.

I’ll join in on the pressure in a sec lemme go count how many votes are on Linatic rn

Ok maybe addicted is not the word word but I am hyper focused on this game

Vote count + Time check?

Hear me out: We do, in fact, ball… but why haven’t we considered: “fuck it,”?

Oh wait Athena does check out then.

God I read that earlier while looking at all the characters ages in the wiki so I would know what year to say when I asked everyone for their character’s birth year

Yeah some other dude got accused and Athena’s testimony saved his ass… I could’ve reaffirmed Savants aim earlier but I completely forgot ffs

Going to a small dirt racetrack in the middle of Fucking Nowhere, Iowa with my dad and sister. 

See y’all at 11 cst… I think

Let me know your thoughts when you’re done. You are my top town read and I still think your abilities in reading others are superior to mine.

I changed my mind. I’m staying lol

Fuck it. If I keep posting like that instead of trying to craft the perfect analysis post that is organized with links to my sources and formatted correctly and addresses counter arguments with a cherry on top, I would have plenty of time to play the game while enjoying my time with the extended fam

I’m waffling now lol

Chat, should I stay in the game?

Shit I might be addicted to mafia

Fuck now I feel like posting that lifted a burden off my shoulders and now I feel like I could play the rest of the game if I did the rest of my posts like that 

Fuck

Oh I forgot about Barney. Lmk know if he can’t, I have connections and can find someone else.

My final thoughts before I dip:

I’m still leaning scum on Lunatic. I don’t understand the logic of what he’s doing this game. I feel like his vote on me was complete nonsense earlier, basically just “Mharman exists, maybe it’s him” and then he just builds a case later because we disagree on what RVS is. Then, when I say “how tf am I going to know your ideas from your perspective,” he just says I’m playing it off as a misunderstanding. No shit I’m gonna get defensive, Lunatic; your logic is shit and I’d rather not be mislynched. In his eyes, my denial is a confession. If that’s all he’s got that’s hilarious.

Not to mention, he isn’t even looking within Savant and Wylted that much anymore. He spent a lot of time talking about how Austin could be on some gambit. I don’t buy that- I think if you’re in a claimed dreamer’s group, scum is either in your group or the person claiming dreamer. If this is some kind of town gambit on Austin’s part, it’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen, and I think Austin smarter than that. I think Savant is right when he says what Lunatic is doing this as a way of dodging POE. 

But, for whatever reason, Wylted townreads him. I can’t say I agree, but I will admit Wylted’s reads were better than mine last game. So who knows what Wylted’s figured out. I mean he says Lunatic being erratic is a town tell but Lunatic doesn’t strike me as the erratic type. Maybe Wylted has something else figured out, but I don’t see it.

Leaning town on Savant. I’ve been reading his posts and to me, I see the thought process. I see how he jumps from one idea to another, but it looks more cohesive than erratic. To be honest, even if he is tunneling a bit, I don’t see how that makes him scum. He was literally town and doing that last game. Not to mention that if Austin is to be believed, it makes sense to focus on looking for scum among those three he dreamed about.

I will admit however, that his role claim doesn’t make much sense and being willing to character claim so early with little pressure isn’t automatically towny given that we’re in a game where mafia can ask who’s in the game. And if Wylted’s logic about Lunatic’s behavior is correct, then perhaps Savant’s behavior and thought process as expressed in his posts are a little too crafted.

I still hard town read Wylted. The first slip where he tagged Pie could’ve been easily faked, but the whole thing where we false CC’d Austin bc two character have similar names is towny af to me. There’s also just his vibes in general.

My read on Austin is weird. Again, either he’s found scum among his pool of three or he’s scum; I don’t think he’s doing any weird gambit if he’s town.

I like him as town from a mechanical standpoint. I think Wylted is right that dreamer sounds like a role Pie would put in his game and I also like how well his character and role fit together. It feels a little too concrete to be faked by mafia who learned Maya Fey and dreamer wasn’t in the game. It is possible given that Pie having a say in this setup means there’s a chance he could told Casey to reward scum who go for the risky claims (I think this was the case in the Percy Jackson game he did?), but I don’t think it’s likely because of how well it looks like it fits, especially from my perspective.

From a behavioral standpoint, it’s a bit strange.  It feels like he drew way too much attention to his own softclaim, breading over and over again… it’s like he wanted town to figure it out as soon as possible, and to me, the point of breading is to be less obvious so you can reveal it when the time is right. Even his earlier appeal to how Maya was the deuteragonist of the series feels disingenuous given what was stated on Post #1. It reads as “look at me, I’m this role and I can’t possibly be scum!”

And yet, if he really did dream about those three and knows one of them is scum, it makes sense if he were to start leading town in the direction of those three asap. I just think the way he approached it is so weird.

As for everyone else… I’m still unsure. I kinda line what Owen is doing here, although the buddying with Savant is a little bit excessive. But hey, maybe if you’re a rookie you’re gonna be hard buddying the only person you town read. I feel like Earth is hiding a bit too far in the back, so that’s off putting. Whiteflame is interesting, but nothing strikes me as wrong about him. Joebob is also hiding in the back a lot; at least Earth took the time to consider whether or not they should go with my claim suggestion. Whenever JoeBob does step in he’s basically says something like “I have no idea what’s going on, please helps.” I don’t think Joebob is that much of a noob anymore.

So my current scum reads are Lunatic and Joebob. Savant, Earth and Austin are possible; Austin is more plausible than Earth, who is more plausible than Savant imo 

I recommend y’all lynch Lunatic this DP and go from there. If y’all really feel I’m that wrong on Savant, go for it I guess. But please, keep an eye on Austin and dig deep into him if scum isn’t lynched today.

That’s all, peace out.

Look. For hours I was analyzing the game but got exhausted and gave up. Imma be honest I don’t wanna play this game anymore… I’m on a vacation with extended family and I’m just sitting in a cabin while everyone else in my family is doing stuff together. I shouldn’t have joined this game to begin with, but I like mafia and don’t want it die out. But to be honest, this game is feeling like way too much of a chore right now so I think I’m gonna dip. I’ll try to find someone to replace me.

If you really think your role sucks, there's no reason not to.

Yes.

Starting on those reads on Owen, Whiteflame, Earth, and JoeBob

Why would you town read Lunatic for this? If he believes that counts as an RVS, then sure it's not scummy, but how is that towny? Genuine question because you had the best reads last game.

Alr I'm back on

Gn yall

Post #292, please and thank you.

So it's getting late and I'm going to go to bed in about 5 minutes. I'll post my reads tomorrow morning, but the summary is that I still scumread Lunatic (for reasons other than his earlier vote on Wylted), I still townread Wylted, and I now townread Savant. These reads aren't based on any kind of POE- just my thoughts on their behavior. Additionally, I have a newfound FOS on Austin, so if something changes and I start to townread Lunatic while still townreading the other two, I will have a scumread on him. I have no thoughts on anyone else because I'm convinced we'll find scum among the previous four, but I will analyze them before posting my reads so I have something on everybody.

I should mention that you said RVS was a "random vote stage." I always thought of it as a "random vote start." Perhaps that's the reason for this discrepancy?

Due to the fact that Wylted had the whole debacle where he incorrectly CC'd Austin. I don't think anyone could scumread him after that.

The only reasoning I've seen you give is this whole RVS thing. Got anything more than a disagreement over what we think of when we hear the acronym "RVS?"

thx

In my mind, an RVS is one of the first posts you make in a game, almost immediately after the game starts and nothing is going on. In my mind, it is not a post made a page and a half after the game has started, two hours after your first post. I felt like stuff was going on by then.

I suppose I'll back off on that point given that different players are going to have different ideas about this sort of thing, but I don't know why you would expect me to have your idea on that.

I think outright character claiming is a bad idea right now. However, I will steal an idea from Pie: I want everyone in this game to state whether their character is a lawyer or not a lawyer, AS OF CURRENT LORE, as stated in the fandom wiki. Additionally, many pages on the wiki state the character's age/reckoned birth year... please state whether they were born before or after January 1, 2000.

I'll go first: Lawyer, born before Jan 1 2000.

Seriously if he was RVSing it doesn't make sense to do it so late... and even if that is somehow an RVS in Lunatic's mind, how tf am I gonna know that?

Expanding on this: I don't see how someone goes from slightly townreading Wylted for a slip, to going null on it, to then randomly voting Wylted. If you were looking to RVS someone to get the game going, why wait until page 2 and your 7th post of the game?

With that in mind, how can I be confident you vote on Wylted was RVS, and that Wylted didn't just erroneously give you a way out when he said it was?

Question: How was I supposed to know your vote on Wylted was RVS?

1. You said you were dead serious on it in post #72.

2. You started your participation in this game with six posts of analysis (including Wylted).

I don't believe in any sort of multiverse, but let's entertain the idea for the sake of argument.

It would be completely irrelevant. The original question about killing baby Hitler is about how we would handle things in our own timeline if we could change them.

I believe their claim. Their character and role make way too much sense. Even the game and theme design of it makes sense.

If I'm scum and asking Casey about who's in the game for a fake claim, I'm not asking about the protagonist or any deuteragonists. I'm asking for a more minor character. Not for someone who's obscure, just for someone who isn't at the forefront of the story.

As it stands, we do have one scum between Lunatic, Savant, and Wylted.

This was said earlier, but I am repeating it. I am warning the rest of town not to stray from this idea. Austin is hard town.

The nuke question is something I'm still undecided on.

As for killing Hitler as a baby, I wouldn't. While WWII was tragic and took the lives of many, the butterfly effect that resulted created as many, if not more. People were dispersed, and they met new people that were found at their new home. In some cases, a refugee married someone they met in their new home, resulting a new bloodline being created. In other cases, someone had a changed outlook on life after the war, which resulted in that someone marrying a different person than they would have previously. Same concept.

To be honest, I don't think I would exist if WWII never happened. My grandfather was in the Navy during WWII, stationed in the Pacific theater. He never saw battle, but I would be shocked if his experience in the military didn't change him. It certainly impacted his decisions going forward, which likely ensured he would meet and eventually marry my grandmother.

I can guarantee I'm not the only one who wouldn't exist if WWII didn't happen. Should I sacrifice myself, many of the people I know, and who knows how many others around the world, for the sake of those whose fate was already decided back then? Absolutely not.

Sure, there'd be many individuals that would exist in place of us all; however, they don't exist, so we have no moral obligation to them. We have the people in this world right now.

And that's not even factoring in the future, where the butterfly effect would get even more intense.

Forgot to ping ^

True, but I definitely need to double check my scum read on Lunatic and my town read on Wylted. You’re not off the table either.

I’d rather be Harvey Dent than Anton Chigur.

I worded that horribly. This whole convo started because Wylted said Own was confirmed… maybe Lunatic did have a reason to speculate.

Hmmmmmm

And if you're wondering why I mention ethics when talking about team balancing, it's because anything other than pure, unpredictable randomness is unethical.

I guess the big question for me is, how plausible is it that Lunatic would go off on such a whim, when nothing about the question of ethical team-balancing was talked about beforehand?

After thinking more, I'll say this:

Using mod psych isn't inherently scummy. BUT... when someone who is town is trying to read mod psych, they are going to look for things that the mod has already said, either in-thread (DPs or sign-ups) or whatever the mod said in PMs.  They are not going to try and figure out whether or not the mod is ethical in how they balance the teams. I asked Casey in-thread about how they organize the teams in-thread because Lunatic mentioned it, and told yall the type of reply I got in a PM from Casey. I only went into mod psych because the idea was suggested and Casey replied to me. Lunatic on the hand, went off a weird whim.

To expand, I don't think I've seen Lunatic play the mod psych game before. But I think he should know better. To me it reads as giving town something meaningless to talk about as a distraction. I don't see how he could think Casey is just "the type of mod" to manipulate the teams so Owen would get a veteran teammate in the event Owen rolled scum. Whatever reasoning he has, it's arbitrary. And he should know that.

I do believe it is between Savant and Lunatic. I was town reading Wylted from the start and I've believe Austin since he claimed. Leaning toward Lunatic because the whole psych thing reads like a load of crap to me.

Does it just mean above the normal random odds?

Tf is +randchance explain in layman’s terms plz

Huh

^^^ FYI