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OK.
Whiteflame's info is extremely valuable.
2 scum of the 6 here: (whiteflame, skittlez09, Bearman, Greyparrot, Lunatic and Danielle)
- Whiteflame is pretty much town confirmed with that Aang claim.
- BearMan yet again has accurate tracker results. I did not go anywhere. And if he was scum, he would be better off setting me up for mislynch. Plus Speed COP confirms him.
- Obv Danielle is town.
This leaves Skittlez, Grey, and Lunatic.
Lunatic says he is confirmed by Danielle being BP. I'm not sure I buy that. Yes, her role mentions Iroh. But you would think that if they truly confirmed one another Zuko would be the one that, if killed, also kills Lunatic. We need everyone to claim, and we also need Lunatic to tell us who the heck kills him if killed.
Skittlez and Grey need to full claim. I sus Skittlez and Lunatic the most. Lunatic for reason above, Skittlez because he was an opportunist with that Pie lynch.
1 scum of the 3 here: (Crocodile, MisterChris and Speedrace)
I know I am town, and there are at least 3 lines of confirmations of this.
Speedrace is likely town. His COP read on me was correct, and he also revealed Bear as innocent. It is MYLO. Obviously if he were scum, he'd be pushing for a mislynch right about now, but instead he confirms someone who is innocent as innocent, helping town.
As a matter of POE, Crocodile is for sure scum... Grey, Lunatic , and Skittlez suspected. VTL Crocodile.
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Since we are at MYLO I am going to full claim for the sake of town info. Supa gave me a really weird justification and role, and frankly I can't see the link myself.
I am Sokka, Katara's brother. I am part of the southern water tribe, and after my father leaves I assume responsibility for the tribe. I become a leader during the war and train the youth of the tribe in combat. I am the Even Lobbyist. Which means on even day phases my vote is worth double. I win with town.
I was going to claim last DP and contribute more, but I was spending the latter part of last week with my sister and my new brother-in-law before she went back to the navy.
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@whiteflame
What is your justification and character?
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OK. So I skimmed through the DP.
Here's the potential candidates for lynch I've seen: BearMan, Speedrace, Lunatic,
BearMan:
BearMan has several things working for him.
First, he claims tracker and Toph… This is a ballsy claim as Toph is a main character, and it’s verifiable. Unlike some of the others, I think tracker fits the character.
Second, he has been town-confirmed by Speed. I'm inclined to believe a cop, for reasons I'll add below.
Third, Whiteflame confirms his results... so he is a tracker of some sort. He wasn't lying about his power.
Speedrace:
You don't just claim cop as scum, especially not DP1, unless you're trying to draw out the real cop through a counterclaim or something... Since no counter-claim has emerged, this seems extremely town to me on the surface.
BUT, if Supa had given cop as a role to mafia (which I think would be overpowered as fuck but whatever), it could very well be that Speed is scum.
What Speed and Bear don't have working in their favor is the fact that
a.) they are both alive.
b.) neither of them have been roleblocked.
As Danielle said:
"I wanna focus on the fact that warren was deliberately killed so mafia could Janitor him. But going after warren makes no sense. They should have gone after Speed or BearMan. I suspect Speed will claim to be role blocked and of course we don't know if that's true. But if they RB Speed and assumed Doc would be on Speed -- or me, since Luna explicitly asked Doc to be on me before Speed role claimed -- then mafia should have killed BearMan last night."
Here's the thing: if we lynched Speed and he flipped scum, I'd wager Bear is scum and he was "fake confirmed town" by his partner. But that's not a given.
Anyway, like Pie, I'm usually inclined to believe the COP unless I'm given better reason to believe otherwise... but Danielle's point is really good.
No matter how I do the math in my head, I can't figure out why the scum didn't target the only revealed power roles in DP1. Could be a grand master plan to frame them, but I feel like that would be too high risk, to little reward of a gambit. Especially since if Speed flips town, that automatically implicates the people who sussed him. Which includes me I guess.
Alright, I think I'm on board with a Speed lynch. If we lynch him and he flips town, at least we have town-confirmed Bear and can move the heck on from that. Otherwise, we have at least 2 more implicated scum to go along with our scum lynch. Not saying it is a fantastic lynch prospect, especially given the potential loss of a COP, but it is better than any other option I've heard.
Lunatic:
If everything else falls through, could be a good option to confirm him. But I think we are wasting time by trying to confirm him right now.
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@SirAnonymous
At that point, it ain't gonna matter who wins. It'll all end in flames. And how do I know? Because 2020, pal, because 2020.
*laughs and then immediately starts crying*
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@whiteflame
can you confirm BearMan's claim?
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Warren42 - ????????
So this means mafia has the same role as what scum had in the Civil War Generals mafia?
I think it was called Janitor
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@sadolite
Good point. Who knows. I wouldn't put it past Putin to develop it, for example
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@Danielle
yeah, I don't think there is a quicker way than just to go through their profiles
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@Danielle
I sent you one. You click your profile photo in the top right, go to the "Friends" tab, select the person you want and on the lefthand side it should have the option to accept or reject request
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@Vader
after some consideration... I'll hammer. VTNL
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Apologies for any grammatical errors in my last post. I typed that at 12 am when I really should've been sleeping. LOL.
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TL;DR: Lunatic town, Speed town, Grey town, Pie FoS, Bear heavy FoS, rest null.
Lunatic: Opens up with a controversial gambit that he uses to push a case on me and Speed & others: “Hmm... Based on the acknowledgement of my "I win with the scum" statement from you (Mr. Chris), speed, croc and bearman, I am thinking scum is somewhere in that pool so far. Whoever liked my post is probably scum. That could be you or speed though most likely.” Despite some wacky conclusions, it seems like a genuine gambit to me. Especially since he pretty much immediately reveals useful information that, in his place as scum, I don’t think I’d reveal…“I have information in my role PM that tells me there are 3 mafia in this game. 2 share a PM, and the third one is not in the PM. I asked supa if mafia knew that my role existed, he said they do not. So my idea was to claim I was mafia right off the bat to see how scum would react, because the 2 in the PM are probably flabbegasted at the strategy if they think I am scum "Like bro we get it, your telling us your scum, stfu already."”
As for his theory, I think it has merit, just isn’t something we should put too much weight on. For all we know, scum could’ve seen it and just ignored… Or, Lunatic is lying and Pie was right to scumread him. Which could totally be a possibility. Wait a second… “though technically misterchris is newer, he is very smart and a big poster, I don't consider him a noob.”
He complimented me, LUNATIC IS TOWN!!!! (Although, I will say in response to his post here, that I genuinely didn’t think of gambit as an option until a while later. This was not a malicious attempt on my part, I promise)
Anyway, I town read Lunatic right now. His Iroh character claim makes sense, because Iroh was a “good person” who was part of the fire nation, traveling with an initially evil nephew Zuko and brother of firelord Ozai. He was good, but had connections to the bad (hence why Lunatic knew info about scum)
Speed: Dismisses Lunatic’s gambit as meaningless pretty early on, which wouldn’t bother me, except he also says “If anything I think we should ignore him because this is pretty anti-town” Look, like any player, Lunatic is wrong sometimes… But in my opinion he definitely isn’t a player you should ignore altogether. Speed later claims COP. Very ballsy as mafia. I town read him.
Pie: Pretty much immediately jumps on the Lunatic partial claim thing. “So last time there was a game where the 3 scum weren’t in one PM was Warren’s Bastard Mafia game. In that one Lunatic was the one not the in PM with Disc and Cookie as scum that were in a PM. He signaled to them very early on in DP1. This is obviously some huge WIFOM going but it warrants a full claim imo. Last time he essentially told who his buddies were leading me as town to identify the last scum and win the game. He wouldn’t make the same mistake twice.” This is a fair point, it totally could be a possibility, but I kind of agree with Lunatic that it doesn’t really make sense for him to reveal this much as mafia… and I don’t think his role is out of the question considering what we’ve seen from Supa and what I know of Iroh. I think I agree with Warren though.. Lunatic should full claim DP2. Anyway, Lunatic places a FoS on Pie. I’m with him.
Bear: Like Speed, dismisses Lunatic’s gambit with a “Man just because we got eyes doesn't mean we're all mafia” (which frankly I kinda agree with… that said, Lunatic has a point that the people most obviously signaling back to him would be scum if what he said is true. I think his idea has merit.) Bear comes swinging at Lunatic later, trying to start a wagon. Weirdly, he later goes: “Unvote. lunatic lynch is bs idk what i was thinking” with no further explanation. Then he turns around and starts the wagon AGAIN. Then he claims tracker and Toph… This is a ballsy claim as Toph is a main character, and it’s verifiable. Unlike some of the others, I think tracker fits, but the “Sees through attacks” thing IS weird... I’m also not sure if Supa gives fake claims. Anyway, Bear is among my scum reads (though it’s not lynchable evidence for me yet, especially given that his erratic behavior could also be blamed on noobness).
Warren: Notably says he doesn’t think what Lunatic was doing was a gambit at first… Which is interesting, because last game he was pretty quick to suggest Oro’s picture change being a gambit. Also says Lunatic should full claim DP2, which I agree with. Null.
Grey: Immediately claims, which unfortunately is the norm for town Grey. Town.
Danielle: Backs Lunatic immediately... If Lunatic flips scum at some point, this implicates her (but by making this post it would probably implicate me too considering it has been mostly pro-Lunatic… so I’m probably not giving this much weight even if he did flip scum). Null.
Whiteflame: Has a “sit back and analyze” approach that I predicted going in… I suspect he will come in with some bombshell analyses later on... Either that, or Supa made a noob scum and he is playing hand off to avoid suspicion. Null.
Skittlez: Null. He’s been inactive.
Croc: Null.
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@BearMan
Well, either way, I'm going to need a really solid argument that it won't destroy all of humanity before I sign off on it personally..
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@BearMan
Correct, but do you know of any software in existence that doesn't have bugs?
NASA had a satellite fail due to a simple coding error with unit conversion... on a 125 million dollar project.
I don't know about you, but I'm not terribly comforted. We have to be very very careful about this... But I think it could be done safely potentially... Just not anytime soon.
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@BearMan
No one is programming AI with those intentions... that's not the point, it never was. The point is in mere minutes, a superintelligent being many thousands of times smarter than the collective of humanity could be created on accident. And that is very dangerous
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@sadolite
@Dr.Franklin
@BearMan
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Alright. I'm alive again. Reading the day phase
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@Danielle
Debaters:1. Intelligence_062. Speedrace3. SupaDudz4. MisterChris5. seldiora6. That1User7. Lemming8. Crocodile9.Nikunj_sanghai10. Dr.FranklinJudges:1. Ragnar2. WhiteFlameProctors:1. BearMan
A bracket-style tournament. We are on the final round after Whiteflame judges my round against Nikunj.
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@Danielle
I'm in class, so if I don't get back to you for ages it's nothing personal lol
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@Danielle
Uhh... if Trump got his way he would be a full blown dictator. He doesn't believe in term limits for himself and has "joked" about extending them or not accepting the election results if he loses. He hates checks and balances and the separation of powers. He has literally praised authoritarian governments, their leaders and how they are run...
Uh huh.
Like I said Trump has expanded the size, scope and spending of government more than any other president so how is that different than Biden doing the same if he got his way? Trump invests in defense vs. green infrastructure but that's still government spending; it's still government interference in the market and manipulation of the economy and where we invest tax dollars.
How is it different? Well, one spends billions more than the year before, one spends trillions.
One forces businesses to comply, one incentivizes them.
If government regulation can provide a better outcome than the market or laissez faire principles here, why stop at trade protectionism - why not apply that to everything else?
Uh, no. Free markets are great and ideal, but only if other countries comply and don't extort the policy (the US has been tariffed and had intellectual property stolen to oblivion and hasn't cared until recently). In that sense, trade protectionist diplomacy is a good way to create the ideal market space between those countries and the US.
Don't get confused. It's a private market. Not sure where you're getting "congratulations, the government isn't useless, therefore communism!" from.
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This is brilliant
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Hey all, sorry for being so inactive today. My sister came back from deployment, so obviously I was occupied. I'll be coming out with some analysis tomorrow
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@Danielle
AOC has a more libertarian position on drugs than any other member of Congress. Bernie Sanders and Julian Castro have more libertarian positions on immigration than Rand Paul, Justin Amash or Thomas Massie. Ilhan Omar referred to Obama's foreign policy as "mass murder with a pretty face."
Yup, there are definitely progressive positions that appeal to the libertarian spectrum
Why is it that opposing Obamacare and loving guns gets you a bunch of libertarian love, while being the foremost critics of police brutality, border enforcement or imperialism doesn't amount to much in credibility in libertarian spaces?
I'd say mostly because while those things are on the "take care of" list, they do not pose as much importance to American libertarian voters as the policies that directly affect their lives the most.
Of course Biden is not as progressive as the aforementioned people so I'm not necessarily disagreeing Trump is more libertarian than him, although I could make that argument if I wanted to. Regarding the "Green New Deal," Biden can't pass anything - Congress has to - and just because a president supports something doesn't mean it will get done, even if you have all branches of government on your side. Just ask Obama what it was like getting the ACA passed and the ACA is infinitely more popular than the GND.
True, but I'll still elect for the guy who if by some chance did get his way, it wouldn't go against just about every value I have.
In theory Trump might sound more libertarian, but in actuality government has grown in size, scope and spending since he took office while our civil liberties have arguably decreased, and Trump loves the expansion and utility of state/government power like sending in the Feds or backing police 100% of the time. It's just such a weird correlation when I think about Trump and liberty lovers. It don't make no sense.
You basically went through a laundry list of my problems with trump except a couple things. I think protectionist trade policy has its place, but the way he goes about his economic doctrine rubs me the wrong way.
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@secularmerlin
you do you homie
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@seldiora
As can I thoroughly negate subjectivism for its weakness. Then what are we left with?
One of the big principles of philosophy is that very little can be actually known for certain. That is why the field exists as such. You may think moral objectivism is unlikely, but truly we have no idea and are just pissing in the wind.
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@secularmerlin
The universal standard existing does not depend on what we interpret it to be. That's kind of the whole point of objectivity. Some accredit it as the will of a benevolent God for humanity's welfare, others say the standard exists for human self-preservation or for no end goal at all. I'm leaning towards the former but I will admit I have my doubts. This is not something I'm thoroughly convinced on. I'm simply defending the argument to prove it is viable
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@Danielle
Although Trump is a buffoon and certainly not anywhere NEAR what I think the country truly needs, he is at least better than Biden from the libertarian standpoint:
- The Biden Plan. Almost identical to the Green New Deal.
WSJ:
"The Democratic nominee seeks not just mass use of electric cars, as California’s governor mandated last week, but further changes across the economy, government and society: Electrified public and freight transportation, power plants running without greenhouse-gas emissions, and the placement of climate concerns at the center of social policies and diplomacy."
Government mandated products? No thanks.
Biden’s commitment to raising the federal minimum wage from its current $7.25 to $15 an hour is one of the least talked-about plans at stake in the 2020 election.
"Biden supports the College for All Act, which Sanders and Rep. Pramila Jayapal introduced in 2017."
- Increasing the scope of Obamacare
There's more.
On the other hand:
45 months into office, Trump’s body count is remarkably low. And in at least once instance, his bad-boy bravado gave way to remarkable restraint.
In June 2019, Reuters reported that Trump “aborted a military strike to retaliate for Iran’s downing of an unmanned U.S. drone because it could have killed 150 people.” Presidents aren’t supposed to weigh considerations such as proportionality. Think Hillary Clinton would have?
From the start of his quest for the Oval Office, Trump roared that as a killer of job- and wealth-creation, regulation can be as lethal as taxation.
And in power, he’s backed up his rhetoric with an imperfect, but nonetheless strong, assault on red tape. His administration has proposed a “new rule under the National Environmental Policy Act to completely overhaul the dysfunctional bureaucratic system that has created … massive obstructions,” gutted the Obama administration’s expensive and unnecessary “Clean Power Plan,” and established “much needed regulatory certainty and predictability for American farmers, landowners and businesses” regarding whether “water on their land may or may not fall under federal regulations.”
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@secularmerlin
Addressed 2/3 of these already, but as for creating a broad list of all moral principles to be included in such a standard, I have neither the time nor the will to comply.
Although, I think John Talley on Philosophy Now names some good ones.
(1) All societies share certain values necessary for any society to function (for example, no lying, promise-keeping, nurturing children) (2) Objectivism appeals to reason over feeling and offers a better chance for humanity to solve its many problems; (3) The purpose of ethics is to provide guidance, and humanity needs guidance for world affairs and not just within any particular society, and (4) Nations and societies must cooperate, and this requires agreement on core values.
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@Lunatic
no, I mean in Bastard States. What did you say to your scum partners in DP1 to hint that you were scum? or was you simply tagging them enough
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I'm not sure I buy that Lunatic needs to full claim this dp. Seems like a pretty genuine gambit to me, even if his conclusions are a bit wacky. That said, I wasn't in Bastard States, so my opinion here is pretty weightless. If someone can explain what exactly happened there, I might have better insight.
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@Lunatic
Actually looking back chris might have had the scummier post if he thought I was the 3rd mafia though. In post 9, if he knew I was scum, it would make sense that his this being a gambit or RVS test would be on any of those options. He was probably just confused and trying to make a laugh out of it so as to hopefully make people think less of the fact that the third mafia just claimed, dismissing it as a joke or jester makes sense.
Or, OR, hear me out, I didn't think of it when making the list. I've only just recently gotten a hold on the whole gambit concept. You're jumping to conclusions pretty hard rn.
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@DebateArt.com
Noted. I shall do my part!
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@Lunatic
what are you thinking so far, based off of reactions?
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Don't tell him this, but my goal may or may not be to pass Ragnar
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@Lunatic
guess it isn't then *wink wink*
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@ILikePie5
@Speedrace
Just watch. Whiteflame will kill it in this game.
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@Lunatic
Speedrace/ misterchris or speedrace/croc im thinking so far
Ah, so this was a gambit for info?
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