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@spacetime
You said you don't support universal free education. Why is that?
Actually, on thinking a bit harder, I'm undecided.
Scott Alexander has an interesting post on this, but I'm not sure I agree: https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/06/06/against-tulip-subsidies/
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@spacetime
I'm unsure about both corporate tax cuts and single-payer healthcare, but I think we should implement unemployment-minimizing policies anyway -- and not just to substitute for jobs lost due to a minimum wage. I think it's true that businesses would hire fewer workers at the point of $15/hour; for me, the question is whether that is offset by the increase in living standards created. On boosting aggregate demand, I'm not entirely convinced, particularly given that sudden upward pushes in AD could just be offset by central banks. There's another argument -- in favor of a minimum wage -- to be made from the perspective of efficiency. All of these are legitimate arguments, but I think the unemployment created by a minimum wage as high as $15/hour would probably outweigh; most pro-minimum wage economists oppose proposals that are that high, from what I recall.It should be raised to a "living wage". I don't think its true that businesses would necessarily end up hiring fewer workers. Higher revenues from increased consumer demand would at least partially mitigate the higher labor costs. And there are plenty of pro-business policies we could pursue to further mitigate labor costs, like corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and single-payer healthcare.
But yeah, not super-knowledgeable about this either.
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@Castin
The auto-capitalization after punctuation marks is gone -- so maybe it's an indicator that Juggle might try to be involved?
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@spacetime
I'm not sure how the automation of labor would affect this dynamic. Maybe Gates's proposal of a “robot tax” on corporations would work?
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@spacetime
I think the solution would be measures to improve labor productivity to increase wages and wage subsidies until labor productivity increases to the point where most people are earning living wages. I'm not sure, though.Considering that roughly 40% of all jobs in the U.S. pay less than $15 an hour, I'm not sure how much "full employment" really matters.
I think I oppose UBIs; it seems to me that a sufficiently high UBI -- rather than a means-tested solution -- would require placing distortively high income taxes, and while those would be compensated for, the amount of compensation would not be tied to work done, meaning productivity-effects of income taxes would still apply; however, I haven't looked at the empirical research and am just reasoning from what introductory-textbook economic models would have me believe.
What do you think about raising the minimum wage? It doesn't seem to me like an issue that'll be resolved among economists anytime soon.
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@spacetime
What would your ideal healthcare system look like? I dislike the idea of socialized healthcare, but I haven't seen any viable alternative so far.
In the US, perhaps the Singapore model (https://slate.com/business/2013/10/singapore-health-care-what-do-conservatives-like-about-it.html) or perhaps a slightly less free-market version of Scott Sumner's proposed model (http://www.themoneyillusion.com/universal-health-care-wont-improve-health-but-i-support-it/). Alternatively, just expanding Obamacare -- reforms similar to the ones you used to support in your earlier blog -- by (1) allowing Medicare and Medicaid to negotiate drug prices with pharmaceutical companies, (2) setting up a public option, (3) putting in place tougher antitrust legislation, and (4) gradually expanding Medicaid coverage. I'm not sure if any of this would work, and I think a single-payer system would probably be better if the only objective was increasing access to healthcare, but I'm too worried about the opportunity cost and about ensuring that the quality of public healthcare is good.
If there was some sensible way to phase into a socialized model after lowering costs significantly (which would also mean less of a cost by the government) or phase into a French-type mixed system of universal healthcare, I'd support it. I'm not too knowledgeable about this, but I haven't seen good phase-in proposals.
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@spacetime
Who are your top three picks for the next U.S. president?
None of these is realistic, but my picks would be Jack Lew, Jason Furman, and Larry Summers -- I don't agree with them on many things, and I dislike Summers in general, but I think they're (1) very intelligent and generally have good policies and (2) have worked in Washington bureaucracy and have some understanding/experience of politics.
I'm being very unrealistic. In terms of politicians who're actually likely to run, I'd say Joe Biden is probably at the top of the list, but I have a stunning lack of knowledge on foreign policy issues and I'm not sure I agree with him on most foreign policy-related things. I'm also wary of Democrats facing political pressure to adopt more and more extreme leftist policies. I'll stick with a Democrat, though, mainly because of criminal justice reform, animal welfare, combating human-caused climate change, and social issues (which I'm less unsure of than economic ones). After Biden, it's probably Kamala Harris or Cory Booker. I'm not ardently opposed to someone like Rubio, Kasich, or Bush (Jeb) either.
The tl;dr is I dislike most politicians.
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@spacetime
Who are your top three picks for the next U.S. president?
They all suck. I wish someone like Greg Mankiw or Christina Romer -- who, yes, disagree on a lot of things, but also agree on a surprising number of things, though they'd run for different political parties -- ran for office. And appointed some solid people on foreign policy as well.
If there was someone with positions pretty close to Mankiw's running for the Republicans, I'd support the GOP almost immediately.
What is your least favorite policy position of the Democratic party?
The far-left Democrats who've now become pretty mainstream on the House, I disagree with about how high taxes to be, I disagree about single-payer healthcare (I think), I disagree about Glass-Steagall legislation, I disagree about universal free education, and I disagree about Basic Jobs. I think my least favorite policy position of the Democrats is their opposition to free trade, though -- even Hillary Clinton flip-flopped on the Trans-Pacific Partnership due to pressure from other Democrats, and Obama could only afford to become pro-free trade after getting into office.
Is there anything you agree with the Republican party on?
Yep. School vouchers, the abolition of agricultural subsidies, raising the retirement age, and free trade are big ones. On other issues divided along partisan lines, I'm entirely undecided, such as whether to lower income and corporate taxes, or whether to abolish the minimum wage.
What is the #1 worst thing Trump has done so far?
That's hard -- perhaps leaving the Paris Agreement or the Iran nuclear deal? Or significant portions of the tax bill? Or the sudden announcement to leave Syria, that even noninterventionists like Jim Mattis and Stephen Walt criticized? He hasn't done much, to be honest, in the sense that he didn't take office in the wake of a significant crisis or a major terrorist attack and failed to pass some big stuff, such as the healthcare plan. I suppose -- on the whole -- his appointments might be the worst, in my view; the good ones (e.g., Jim Mattis, Rex Tillerson) left, the good ones who are left (e.g., Jerome Powell) are people Trump already hates but can't fire, I quite dislike Brett Kavanaugh (though Neil Gorsuch isn't that bad).
Is there anything Trump has done so far that you support?
Probably something, just can't think of it now.
I agree with his political positions on school vouchers, campaign finance reform, infrastructure spending (though I'd probably spend less than he would), allowing Medicare to negotiate directly with prescription-drug companies.
Is there any major U.S. political figure who you think would make a worse president than Trump? Who? Why?
Ron Paul would reinstate the gold standard, audit or even democratize the Fed entirely, and do some other absolutely crazy things. Ted Cruz's positions on healthcare, welfare reform, etc. are ones I disagree with much more strongly than Trump. In general, I think Trump isn't as destructive as he could be because he isn't very popular/very good at getting things done.
On a 1-10 scale, how racist is the United States? 1 is the utopian ideal of zero racism. 10 is the height of the Jim Crow era.
Depending on whether you define racism based on intent or consequence, 4 or 5.
Do you think it's possible to create enough well-paying jobs for everyone who wants to work?
In the US? I think so; if I'm not wrong, many economists think the US is pretty close to full employment now and is on a good trajectory. I think these would mostly be private jobs rather than jobs created by government spending. As far as fiscal policy goes, I don't know very much about Basic Jobs guarantees, but Paul Krugman and Scott Alexander both have pretty good -- and different -- criticisms of them.
Is it immoral to work for a company whose product is a net detriment to society?
Probably not, at least on an individual level, if you're replaceable.
Why do you keep asking for my opinions on stuff? I literally don't know anything.
I think you're pretty knowledgeable, have a lot of epistemic humility and willingness to change your opinions, and actively try to form opinions. Your perspective is always interesting to hear.
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@oromagi
They were voted in by schools very recently, so well after Khashoggi.
Except for the WSDC 2018 final. That was well before Khashoggi.
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Policy: Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially reduce Direct Commercial Sales and/or Foreign Military Sales of arms from the United States.
PF: Resolved: The United States should end its arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
LD: Resolved: The United States ought not provide military aid to authoritarian regimes.
WSDC 2018 final (back in July): This house believes that the West should end all arms sales and military cooperation with Saudi Arabia.
Oxford IV 2018 ESL semifinal: This house believes that the US should cut all political, economic and military ties with Saudi Arabia.
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Some nonhuman animals (specifically vertebrates) should be given moral consideration which is almost equal to that given to humans.
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What do you think the best news sources for coverage of economic policy, politics, and foreign policy—both issues dealing with the West and issues related to Asia and Africa—are?
What are your thoughts on the following news sources, based on quality of news, quality of op-eds, breadth of coverage, and depth of coverage?
- BBC News
- Al Jazeera
- Reuters
- The Economist
- The Wall Street Journal
- The New York Times
- The Financial Times
- The Diplomat
- South China Morning Post
- The website of the Council on Foreign Relations (https://www.cfr.org)
- The website of the Brookings Institution (https://www.brookings.edu)
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@coal
@spacetime
@ResurgetExFavilla
Would be particularly interested in hearing what the three of you think.
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Recently, the US Senate passed a resolution condemning Saudi Arabian actions in Yemen (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/senate-rebukes-saudi-arabia-yemen-war-khashoggi-murder-181213004802358.html). In addition, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called for Saudi Arabia to end intervention in Yemen (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-usa/secretary-of-state-pompeo-calls-for-end-to-fighting-in-yemen-idUSKCN1N502G).
Should the West continue to militarily cooperate with Saudi Arabia, given the humanitarian situation in Yemen, and only resume cooperation on the condition that the naval blockade is lifted? (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/opinion/saudi-arabia-arms-sales.html)
Given that Saudi Arabian relations with Russia (https://www.ft.com/content/aa39b74c-4f0c-11e8-ac41-759eee1efb74) and China (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2168849/china-may-seek-boost-ties-saudi-arabia-it-cant-fill-us-arms) are getting better, if the West does place military sanctions on Saudi Arabia, would they be willing and able to fill that gap, allowing the Yemeni intervention to continue?
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@coal
Have you ever read any of the works of bell hooks?
If yes, which ones? What did you think?
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@David
I'm not interested in debating this myself, more interested in reading.
While I definitely think we need to stay out of everyone else's business, I think there are some times when it's necessary to intervene such as in case of genocide.
The topic has nothing to do with military intervention... it's about endorsing military coups (i.e., militaries taking control over governments).
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@David
Resolved: The United States ought not provide military aid to authoritarian regimes.
How about changing this one to "Resolved: The West should never endorse military coups, even when they overthrow autocratic regimes (e.g., Zimbabwe"?
It'd be awesome to see that debated -- I quite liked that topic.
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@coal
I'm not proposing moderator action against this sort of thing.
I'm just saying people in the community should refrain from doing it.
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@coal
Cheers :) I'm good. How are you?
I'm pretty good too. I've mostly been busy with school and college applications (which are only due next year, I'm a junior in high school, but I took the ACT, etc.).
Edit for clarity: I intend to apply to universities in the US and the UK.
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Do you think humanity might face some kind of existential threat in the next two centuries?
Even if you think human extinction in the twenty-first century is unlikely -- I think it's really, really unlikely, I estimate about a 1% chance of it happening -- if human extinction is to occur, what do you think the most likely causes might be? Proposed causes include anthropogenic global warming, strong artificial intelligence, nuclear war, cybersecurity-related issues (e.g., destruction of critical infrastructure by cyberterrorism), biotechnology risk, and even "cosmic risk" (e.g., vacuum decay if the universe is in a false vacuum, Jupiter's gravitational pull making Mercury's orbit unstable).
As an extension of this -- to be a bit more specific -- what are your thoughts on strong AI research and the development of strong AI more generally?
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@Greyparrot
I don't think the net effect of "welfare culture" or "Islamic culture" is suffering.
I dunno what you mean by "victim culture."
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@triangle.128k
While investments and laws make sense, wouldn't mandated caste quotas and affirmative actiom create a reverse discrimination of a sort? I fail to see the morality of such an unmeritocratic act, especially considering that caste is already in decline.
I'm a utilitarian. I don't care about "reverse discrimination" if it fights existing discrimination. Though I would make any affirmative action proportional to population in those regions, at least in the context of caste. And we probably need more innovative solutions than just affirmative action, since that's been the status quo for a really long time and I want to accelerate the pace of change.
What makes you believe it wouldn't, or isn't already, escalating tensions?
To some extent, it is, but in India, it's reached a point where it's politically impossible to oppose affirmative action and people have generally accepted it as a way of life. Affirmative action enjoys majority support and no major political party opposes it.
Also, similar efforts in the United States end up discriminating against Americans with ancestry in India (given they call under the Asian category) - especially in the case of Affirmative Action. What's your take on this?
I mean, affirmative action at Harvard only reduced Asian-American representation by 7% of what it would have otherwise been. I think, in the context of affirmative action, equally-qualified African-Americans and Latinx-Americans should be preferred to Asian-Americans (because Asian-Americans have much higher median incomes and higher success rates -- the purpose of affirmative action is utilitarian, to reduce net suffering); but Asian-Americans should be preferred to non-Latinx white Americans. It would exist in a multi-layered structure that is sort of similar to the status quo. I do think there's potentially a problem -- described by Tyler Cowen -- where universities discriminate against Asian-Americans and even prefer white individuals to Asian-Americans because white individuals are more likely to donate to these universities when they become alumni; that sort of discrimination is obviously shitty and I strongly oppose it.
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@Greyparrot
Is the caste system in decline?
Unsure what you mean by “the caste system.” Assuming you’re referring to discrimination on the basis of caste, it is in decline but it’s still pretty shitty.
What would be your solutions assuming you are against the caste system.
Similar solutions to those proposed to tackle racism in the United States—affirmative action, investing in poverty alleviation in areas populated by members of socially disadvantaged castes, representation in the police force, comprehensive reform to protect disprivileged individuals from sexual assault, etc.
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@ResurgetExFavilla
Hadn't heard of her until now. Will read up on her.Do you have any opinion on Dambisa Moyo?
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@spacetime
lolWhich Hindu god do you spend the most time worshiping?
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@bsh1
Thoughts on the economic policy positions of Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Marco Rubio?
On balance, do you think immigration economically benefits the US?
Would you raise the minimum wage? To how much, if yes? Why?
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@triangle.128k
It actively perpetuates discrimination against religious minorities and is damaging, socially and economically, to India, in my view.
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@Analgesic.Spectre
I don't think your ban was representative of what moderation on this site is like now.
I'm also pretty sure that your post/this thread won't get deleted.
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@coal
What news sources do you like the best, for news about the US and international news?
Thoughts on the Belt and Road Initiative, and China's role as a geopolitical power more generally?
Do you think Israel should remain a Jewish state?
Thoughts on Roger Waters, both as a musician and with regard to his political involvement?
Thoughts on Stephen Walt?
I think FT's asked you this in an AMA before, but I don't remember your answer and can't find the DDO thread, so: thoughts on Alan Dershowitz?
Do you read any blogs frequently? If there are any, what are they?
You've mentioned before that, if you could choose any person to be President of the United States, it would be Robert Gates. Why?
Also, as an aside from all this, how've you been? It's been a while since we talked.
Sorry for the bunch of questions, I've been super-interested in economics and foreign policy recently, much more than I used to be.
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@blamonkey
@Goldtop
Blamonkey puts it much better than I ever could have.
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@Greyparrot
The wealth in question is being extracted from rich developed countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia), in really small quantities compared to total GDP, to aid in poverty alleviation of low-income families. Even if you want to label it "colonialism," it's hardly bad. And it's not even comparable to the systematic exploitation -- the theft, the mass-murder, the unjust prosecutions, the causing of massive famines and structural poverty to supplement the wealth of the richest in developed global superpowers -- that historic colonialism involved.
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@Greyparrot
I literally don't understand how the former means colonialism.Creating wealth outside of a nation and sending it back to the homeland. That kind of colonialism.
Colonialism isn't just about wealth creation. Multinational corporations create wealth in one nation and distribute profits elsewhere. That's not colonialism. Colonialism is about exerting political control over one state in order to benefit another state, without democratic consent in the former state.
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@Greyparrot
I don't pretend to know a lot about remittances in general, but I think they probably promote economic growth, especially since the majority of remittances aren't from skilled workers (so brain drain effects are minimal).How do you feel about the 70 billion dollars remittances to India? Does it help develop India and make India strong?
I don't understand why they might be the "modern day equivalent of colonialism."Are remittances the modern day equivalent to colonialism? If so, that would be pretty ironic now that India is the top remittance receiver in the world.
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@Plisken
I dunno what you mean by "philosophical" thoughts. I'm a utilitarian, so my "philosophical" thoughts are gonna be pragmatic.What are your thoughts, philosophically, on Nuclear proliferation and the validity of justification for such weapons of mass destruction in foreign policy, in peace and times of war?
I'm not a fan of nuclear proliferation by non-NPT states (e.g., India, Pakistan, Israel). All nuclear states should sign the NPT. In terms of nuclear weapons in general, I wouldn't support abolishing nuclear arsenals, but I do think reducing them is strategically good because it allows nations to cut their defense budgets or reappropriate the money spent into conventional deterrents, which are probably more useful. I don't think there's an imminent threat of nuclear war, so maintaining as many ICBMs as the US does, for example, gives it only minimal soft power -- especially since countries can use conventional weaponry to deter both conventional and nuclear aggression.
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@Goldtop
Not true, if a family member has mental health issues, the rest of the family are usually very well versed.
That's why I said it's a strong indicator, not that it's always the case.
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If they do or don't have a mental health problem, then yes, making an Internet diagnosis of a specific mental illness isn't gonna help.Does that mean damned if they do and damned if they don't?
One does not need to be a psychiatrist to understand someone with mental health disorders.
No, but (1) a person not being a psychiatrist/psychologist is a strong indicator that that person doesn't understand the specifics of mental health disorders and (2) that doesn't deal with my basic point, which is that you shouldn't be making your own diagnoses of other people's mental health problems on the Internet from very limited interaction, especially if without their consent.
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Ask me anything about my views on politics, economics, international relations, social issues, and philosophy.
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@Vader
To be clear, I'm not defending Polytheist's actions. They undoubtedly deserved the temp-ban, based on their conduct in the thread in question.
But calling out one person doesn't mean I can't call out another. You can point in another user's direction all you like. The fact is that you have no right to take the moral high ground. You behaved in an immature way and actively contributed to the cross-contamination of another thread. None of those are bannable offenses and, at best, they might be borderline CoC violations, but that doesn't make your behavior justified.
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@Vader
I dd not start it, she commented on what I said and I fired back.
"Firing back" is not an excuse in any sense. Kindergarten children retaliate when insulted on the playground. People who're not kindergarten children ought show some maturity. In particular, as per the CoC, "If you are having a dispute with another site member, the appropriate response is to inform moderation. It is not appropriate to respond with invective."
I did not use any mis gendered verbs, believe me. I know what I say and I did not say that.
I didn't accuse you of misgendering. I accused you of using a gendered slur (specifically, "bitch").
Plus the forum was a flamewar to start off with, way more than I contributed to the situation.
That isn't an excuse to participate in the situation.
I also pointed out another CoC violation of yours; as per the code of conduct, "Misconduct should be reported to moderation rather than complained about in the forums. Even if an accusation or complaint is justified, it is not permissible to threaten another user on the basis of those accusations or complaints. Allow moderation to handle the situation. Threats are, for the purposes of this policy, personal attacks. They are not tolerated. Threats include (but are not limited to) . . . [t]hreats of moderator reporting or moderator action."
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@coal
To reiterate an earlier question: thoughts on Jerome Powell, and the Fed more generally?
What is your short-version book review of Chomsky's Failed States? I assume you've read it, sorry if I'm wrong to assume that.
Have you come across the foreign policy views of economist Scott Sumner? General thoughts?
You've described yourself as a "libertarian socialist" on DDO. How do you think countries should achieve libertarian socialism?
You've also called yourself a "hawk" on DDO. While I understand this is a really broad question, what arguments convince you to be a foreign policy hawk? This one might be overbroad, so feel free to not answer if you think this'll take up too much of your time, or make it short.
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I don’t think it’s the smartest idea to go around diagnosing people you’ve only interacted with on the Internet with specific mental illnesses. If they do have mental health issues, that’s going to be pretty counterproductive; the same if they don’t. Especially given that none of you (that I know of) are psychiatrists or psychologists with expertise in this sort of thing.
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@blamonkey
Yup, he was working on a BS in Economics, and planned on doing a PhD after that. I used to talk to him a lot.
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He used to be really insightful. I've only really started appreciating his posts on the Debate.org Economics forum now. I wish there was another Econ AMA of his I could post in -- I'd have so many questions to ask.
(Note: ResponsiblyIrresponsible was a user on Debate.org.)
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@coal
Do you have any book recommendations on foreign policy related issues? I'm specifically interested in military intervention and its effects.
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@Vader
Maybe you didn't commit any bannable offenses and what she did was worse, I don't know enough about the situation, but you can't seriously pretend to take the moral high ground here. You used a gendered slur, participated in active cross-contamination and flame wars distracting from the discussion my thread was trying to deal with, and publicly threatened moderator action (which isn't permitted by the CoC). You should feel terrible.Good...I applaud you for your service against her
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