That1User

The supa lynch was big, but kind of unexpected and very lucky for town. We can analyze certain things from the wagons before scum thought supa was ever at risk. Early in the phase the two bigger mislynch wagons were intelligence, and ayya. Knowing supa was scum gives us a lot to deter from scums motivations in that phase.

Intelligence was not an optimal lynch for supa, who was scum, so we can deduce intel was likely scum if supa was proposing the next bigger wagon at the time instead of just taking the freebie mislynch in intel. 

• Water is town for reasons I won't get into but finally became obvious to me, bear was saying ayyu was a strong town read and arguing it heavily with supa, which is major town points. I actually wouldn't throw sir in the way he did, but im assuming his perspective was sir called out the claims inconsistency ultiamtely got the lynch (though at that point scum would probably be more inclined to bus). I led the lynch and was one of the major defenders of ayya way earlier.
  

  
  

  If intelligence is scum, and scum thought they were losing either a godfather or roleblocker, it makes more sense to go with the godfather in that circumstance. Danielle was on the intel wagon and pretty early. She also defended ayya kind of early too. If intel is scum she is likely town. If intel is town she had motive to lead the mislynch.
  

Town Intel means scum had a viable alternative to bussing, which in turn increases the likelihood that Supa's voters are town.

For the most part, this looks like a case where scum had every reason to bus Supa because the alternative was bussing Intelligence. It was a lose-lose situation. If Intelligence flips scum, it should clear Danielle & indicate that last scum is Speed. 

If Intelligence is town, I'd take a closer look at Danielle as potential scum. Town Intelligence clears Luna, Sir, Bear, & Water - never lynch these four if that's the flip.

He claimed to be an empty bottle from Zelda, the Jailkeeper, and to have used his ability on Bearman (that1user). that1 verifies he was RB. @that1 you need to ask the mod what language would be used in a Jailkeeper vs. Role Blocker situation. This is something I am going to clarify in each game when I mod cuz it's come up before. If we can verify he's the Jailkeeper we can move along. I can't see Intelligence coming up with that character so it might be fake from the mod

post #92 by the way, i'm not moving from intel and think he's 100% scum.

I think Ayyantu and Lunatic are town or TP which I hate worrying about, because they could play pro town and still be scum. I'm wary that Ayyantu doesn't want to be targeted by any night actions, and I don't like that Luna suggested there are only 2 scum (and that it's definitely Intel). Sounds like he was trying to hurry the game along and forgo more analysis. Also, if there's anyone that would pull some kind of gambit in bussing a teammate on DP1 it would be Luna so there's always the potential to be nervous about him. But if I worried about these two for now I feel like it could be a distraction. Keep this in mind if I die though. 

Bear was telling supa that ayyu was basically town confirmed, seeing how desperate supa was for that lynch makes bear look really good in hindsight. Though if intel is scum, this could be a bus to to make bear look good especially since Im sure bear will confirm he was blocked.

I am thinking its more likely a third party

I am pretty convinced intel is scum here, my main worry is for a non joint winning Third party here, but if that happens I guess we can just ignore the win con. Pie was going for 12 players, I think he planned on inclusion of a third party or 3 scum. 2-1-8 isn't neccesarily unbalanced though.

 think Ayyantu and Lunatic are town or TP which I hate worrying about, because they could play pro town and still be scum. I'm wary that Ayyantu doesn't want to be targeted by any night actions, and I don't like that Luna suggested there are only 2 scum (and that it's definitely Intel). Sounds like he was trying to hurry the game along and forgo more analysis. Also, if there's anyone that would pull some kind of gambit in bussing a teammate on DP1 it would be Luna so there's always the potential to be nervous about him.

A Supa-Intel-Bear scum is pretty likely imo. (bear replaced obvi)

He could also be the mafia role blocker but yes this is helpful information. Thank you.  Have any thoughts so far? 

It's fairly clear from yesterday that Luna, Sir, & Water are town. Never lynch these.

Well, I am an empty bottle from Zelda and I can trap fairies to use later. I am the Jailkeeper. Last night I used my ability on bearman. 

I dunno if Intelligence would come up with this justification as Jailkeeper if he were scum. I'll have to think about it. Pie said he would give the Mafia either 1 fake character or role. I don't think he gave them 1x Messenger but maybe. 

 Judging on his performance against me in civil disobedience, psychometric's Utilitarianism, and fauxlaw's art, he is probably below sum1.

I don't believe it..... mafia killed the physician on THE FIRST NP?

You can help your case substantially by providing BearMan's PM to TOWN

If you had not confirmed Supa's claim, I would have been prosecuting him right now.  Given your confirmation, no TOWN can justify keeping a STRONGMAN alive.

That's how I would think a beginner would react to being outed as scum. A blatant OMGUS and a "Supa is manipulating the town."

FYI, next time you are scum, you should just play more passive versus the Supa is scum ordeal 

Let's agree that1 is toast.

What's your experience with mafia in general? 

• his claim suggests that SCUM also failed to NK for which we have no evidence. 
  
• It seems profoundly unlikely to me that TP would be given two extra kills.  Too bloody
  
• You are either 3rd party or you win with THE town.  I note that you and GP never got it right.
  
• I'm reasonably confident you are actual SCUM.
  
• I see no reason to let you survive another DP with STRONGMAN in the mix.
  

I'm more or less forced to accept this because of the success in finding scum  but the role & justification still seem totally off to me.

I had it out because you said you wanted to pressure people in the DP1, in fact you pressure Bear to out his character

So what abilities did you use to kill him

Why would you want to clear your name? Of what. If you killed BearMan and actively wanted to work with town, wouldn't you confess that you killed him? Why try hiding it

Yet you got results as if you a a ROLE COP.  Can you help explain this discrepency?

Also, your justification reads like total bullshit

Also, you mispelled your character's name.

I would be insisting on your lynch if That1 had not excuplated you.

The PM Theory Oro had was that if Pie sent out uniform PM sentence structure to all the town members, we'd be able to identify non-town because their PM's wouldn't line up. Pretty far-fetched

as in scum kill him?

Keep pressuring Oro, but make sure you lynch That1

@Chris: not a bad thing to pressure Oromagi now, better for deciding scum

Then how did you kill BearMan?

Also, that doesn't answer my question. If you said that Bearman was scum and wanted to kill him, you wouldn't have janitored him if you wanted to help town out, you would've let his affiliation be known if he was actually scum

You also have a 1x shot vig, that's not what the results got

Also if you are JOAT, you have a goal to win by yourself, so why would you wanna help town?

Why did you janitor someone you thought of as scum?

Bro, I literally just outted That1User as scum. I am a Detective. I literally just exposed scum. How can I be scum?

But why would you janitor a mafia? Wouldn't you want to keep him alive so that town knows they only have two scum? Yea I'm sorry but that makes no sense

Claimed 3rd party and that he wins with the town, I love it! hahaha

That's funny haha. Props for trying.

I am george mcmellan. i was able to use the intelligence given to me by my advisors to make decisions on how to proceed. I however leaned on the side of caution, therefore I am a detective. I investigate that1user. they are a joat

I heard Narcy wouldn't be opposed to a S5. I wonder if she will but with a company like Netflix

A cultural masterpiece when it existed, one of my favorite shows as well, just behind Naruto and Gravity Falls

I'm planning on going back to Marco Diaz for a bit

A null read doesn't objectively make someone a town read

The fact that the Hammer hasn't occurred yet leads me to believe that Speed, oro, That1, and Mharman are one of the scum