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@MgtowDemon
The variables not addressed in the 2012 Booker report are as follows: (1) how the defendant presents himself in court, (2) and how likely he is to reoffend. The latter is partially controlled for by the Booker report in that it takes into account criminal history, but that isn't the only part in determining future likelihood of committing a crime (e.g. a new drug habit could have been formed).I don't know if the 20.4% would evaporate entirely or minutely, but not controlling these variables puts an otherwise excellent study into some doubt.
You must acknowledge that no study can address every variable under the sun, can you find a study that controls for both of these? I did some google searching and couldn't.
Also, to go off topic slightly, I can't find any plausible critiques of this part (quoting a previous post of yours): "men have to endure sentences which are 63% longer than their female counterparts (I know my link is a 538 article but it summarizes a 2015 study from Michigan state university)". So, the study certainly isn't complete trash and is actually quite good.
Well yes, from my understanding the gender gap in sentencing just isn't disputed (though I'm sure flaws in this individual study could be nit picked). Every study has limitations, and they all recognize them as such, including that 2015 Michigan study that found the 63% disparity. This is why we must err on the side where the majority or the plurality of data rests.
This is why I believe in racial sentencing disparities actually, we have the meta analyses (this one looks at 85 studies) and we can see where the totality of the data points.
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@MgtowDemon
Unfortunately, African Americans are far more likely to be disadvantaged than Whites because there is a large, negative genetic component (i.e. not racism). In essence, African Americans create their own disadvantage, and thus that doesn't need to be controlled for. If we were to control for it, I suspect (but not know) that the racial gap would disappear entirely, because you would be eliminating the undesirable genes (and the expression thereof) that create the gap in the first place. Genetic components such as lower I.Q [1][2], poor delayed gratification propensity [3], presence of the 'warrior gene' [4] etc. create this gene differential between African American and White populations, and thus one group, on average, becomes more "disadvantaged".
This sort of avoids the point no? We account for disadvantaged status because we want to find the results when all other variables are equal. I can accept everything you said here (about less desirable genes and whatnot) and my point would still stand. If African Americans have undesirable genes, we would want to compare blacks with desirable genes to whites with equivalent genes to truly see if race is playing a role.
allow me provide an analogy.
-We want to see if gym instructors perceive women as being weaker.
My side would say.
-We must find men and women with equivalent strength, have them demonstrate their strength to the instructor, and have the instructor evaluate their performances to find a disparity.
Your side would say.
-We must find group of men and women without adjusting for strength because women are genetically worse off. Then the instructor should evaluate their performances to find a disparity.
Do you see how at this point your side isn't really looking at gender anymore because we aren't accounting for strength disparities between men and women?
Likewise, your not really looking at race anymore because we aren't accounting for socioeconomic disparities. If black people are predisposed to be worse off we can account for this and see if race is a factor or not. You may say we need not account for disadvantaged status because black people are predisposed to disadvantaged status, but that is equivalent to not accounting for strength disparities between men and women in the gym instructor analogy.
Conversely, non-disadvantaged African Americans are such because of their better genes
Okay, so what I'm saying is these non disadvantaged blacks would still get sentenced longer than equally non disadvantaged whites. About 20.4% longer actually.
To any other readers, I do not believe black people are genetically more violent or less intelligent, I am just saying that if I accept this, my point still stands.
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@Dr.Franklin
What about expanding access? Studies have shown that free birth control decreases teenage pregnancies, (6.3 per 1000 compared to 34.1 per 1000), also, free birth control could save taxpayers 11 billion dollars by reducing unwanted pregnancies.
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As a correction.
The 2010 study does not evaluate black judges perceptions of black criminals, but rather evaluates minority judges perceptions of black criminals and proved they also had the same biases white judges did (Asian/Latino judges for instance). But the study self admits that black judges couldn't be tested. Instead it cites external sources sources to justify the claim that black judges discriminate against black criminals.
Anyhow, my other source also justifies my claim, and the 2010 study doesn't support the opposing argument at all.
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@bmdrocks21
Here is another source also showing no or little difference between white and black judges. Though, the full text is not viewable.
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@bmdrocks21
So you don't believe that there are any other explanations for this than that it must be sexist? Most judges are male, so why do you think that they would be sexist against their own gender?
1, The conclusion of the researchers seems to be that this is attributable to sexism, this makes sense because all other relevant variables are taken into consideration, and the problem persists. More specifically, judges view women as less threatening even if they commit the same crime a man does, leading to lighter sentences, this doesn't necessarily mean that they hate men, but rather that they have preconceived notions about men and women that impact their decisions.
2, It is possible for men to be sexist against men. I think we both remember the images of ultra woke guys holding up signs that say "kill all men."
3, I suppose another explanation could exist, but the academic consensus suggests that sexist stereotypes fuel the disparity, so I just trust the researchers.
Additionally, this didn't break down the rulings based on the race of the judge giving the sentence. So, we don't know if Black judges gave preferential sentences to Black criminals and harsher sentences to Whites, and the White judges gave harsh sentences to Blacks and lighter sentences to Whites. We can't prove racial bias on the part of judges. Additionally, it didn't compare the same judge's sentencing based on White vs Black defendants. Maybe hard-on-crime judges are more prevalent in majority-Black areas?
Black judges can be racist too. Actually they have been proven to be racist. A 2010 study I read a while back took fictional robberies and put them in front of judges to determine sentences. So mock sentencing basically. The only thing that differed was the race of the robber, it found that even black judges sentenced black people longer. So this is the same fake robbery (judges think it's real obviously) but one variable changes, the race of the fake perpetrator, and the trend persists even with black judges.
Hundreds of factors go into sentencing: the type of weapon used, the type of drugs, if the attack was particularly cruel, if the attacker showed remorse in court, if the crime was done in a way as to try to avoid hurting people, etc. I think that the uniqueness of every case makes it very difficult to compare them on race, especially since I pointed out originally that different races have different cultures. They are going to go about crimes in different ways based on motivations and what they were exposed to.
That's why we have controls, I know for a fact that the Booker report took weapon possession into account. Plus, going back to the 2010 study, in that case the crime was literally the exact same from one judge to another except for the race of the perpetrator.
(Sorry for poor grammar, I am writing this in a rush cause I got some school stuff)
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@Greyparrot
What is the exact shade of skin where a person has a superior outcome in all situations?
IDK, does it really matter,pinpointing the precise quantity of melanin needed to get the most favourable outcome is besides the point in my opinion.
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@MgtowDemon
I must say, this data is very compelling even if it is (self admittedly) in the minority. I read the whole thing.
Also, I did find some scholarly sources poke holes in the study.
"only used a subsample of African American and White males and did not include any measures of disadvantage status."
This was a line from a study that did find systemic racism.
Plus I found a debunking of the study seen below.
It is unclear what methodology was used to account for confounding variables. Without that information, we have to allow for the fact that the study had only a 1 in 15 chance of getting reasonably matched populations, and even then, only on SES.
These were these were two of many points brought up to delegitimatize the study
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@bmdrocks21
Well I would like to go one point at a time to make sure we don't get gallop-yIt says in that report that women of all races got shorter sentences than White men. Do you think that our country suffers from systemic sexism as well?
Cool, and to address your question, yes, there is undeniably systemic sexism in the US against me. Actually, systemic sexism against men is stronger than systemic racism against black people.
Remember when I stated that black people got sentenced 20.4% longer relative to white people, well for men, they have to endure sentences which are 63% longer than their female counterparts.(I know my link is a 538 article but it summarizes a 2015 study from Michigan state university)
In short, I have always contended that both systemic sexism and racism exist in the courts.
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@bmdrocks21
Hello there, if you're interested we can discuss one point of systemic racism, that I think exists. This avoids the obvious problem of gish galloping in a discussion like this.
I firmly believe that black people are discriminated against in the courts, as I shall justify below.
The 2012 Booker report found that, all else equal, black people were sentenced 20.4 percent longer than white people. Whenever I argue this I always hear people reference repeat offences, well luckily this report accounts for this stating that the gap between whit and black offenders fell from 20.7 percent to 20.4 percent after taking this into consideration.
If you have any grievances with my data, or you have good counter data, I would be happy to hear it.
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@Theweakeredge
Well in that case you'll be rivalling the likes of Supa Dudz and Rational Madman in no time.
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@Theweakeredge
You really are getting active on these forums, you have already surpassed me and many other older accounts. Excellent job.
Just to provide some projections, in 2 months you have accrued 567 forum posts. This means that after one year you will have 3,402 forum posts.
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I think they are rather pointless, and they serve merely as an unnecessary roadblock to voting. Also, whilst voter ID laws may not be rascist intrinsically, they have rascist outcomes and have been used to target minorities before. That's my broad opinion.
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@SirAnonymous
And Trafalgar's the one everyone laughed at. I'll be eating humble pie, though. I laughed at them too.
I did too, I never necessarily distrusted them, but I always thought they were biased. Perhaps they knew something everyone else didn't.
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As crazy as this election has been, the memes are just too good to simply ignore.
What memes made you laugh? Also, please attempt to remain civil.
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Seeing how liberalism values economic and individual liberty, two measurable metrics, we can actually objectively determine whether or not we are trending toward or away from Liberalism.
Economic Freedom
In the Fraser Institutes annual report on economic freedom, they noted that the world is becoming freer economically.
Individual Liberty
Green represents free countries, yellow represents partly free countries, and purple represents unfree nations. Clearly then we are becoming freer.
So we are indeed becoming more liberal.
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Congrats Mister Chris, I wish you the best of luck from here on out.
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@Juice
Whilst it may be intuitively unappealing to many, including myself, I too believe that there is nothing intrinsically wrong with incest.
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@MisterChris
My apologies, I thought your image was about Michigan.
As for Wisconsin (the state your image does touch on).
This was a result of Milwaukee's absentee ballots being added, a place Biden won by 40 points. Not only this, but Democrats are more likely to vote by absentee, further stacking things for Biden in Milwaukee. All in all, this resulted in a massive Biden uptick, not mass election fraud in the slightest.
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@MisterChris
That error was from a typo in Michigan which gave Biden 150,000 votes instead of 15,000. Shortly after these votes were subtracted, but your chart does not show that subtraction.
Below are journalists talking about that same image.
""Here is another clarification for some confusion regarding a massive Biden vote jump in Michigan last night at around 0400 EST. Shiawassee county accidentally added an extra 0 to their votes for Biden, causing an input of 153,710 rather than 15,371. The error was corrected within the hour by subtracting 138,339 from Biden and now votes are accurate for both sides (next slide).""
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Things are going much better for Trump than I had anticipated, Florida has a 95% chance of going to Trump now.
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@Crocodile
Okay, this isn't really a problem either though. I understand that gay people are a minority, and this is representing them disproportionately, but if every character was dark skinned or red haired the same would be true, and obviously there is no problem with either of these.
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Is this not merely recognizing that gay people exist? This is just a story about a women about to honeymoon with her wife, and a taxi driver presumed incorrectly that she was heterosexual. I don't really think this is pushing anything.
Perhaps if the story portrayed gay marriage as being superior to heterosexual marriage I would share your opinion.
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@RationalMadman
Thanks!!!
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@RationalMadman
Can you do an in-depth rating for me?
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@Intelligence_06
That's not a hockey team, it should be though, the fact that Seattle is going to be named "the Krakens" is appalling.
PETITION TO RENAME SEATTLE AS THE SEATTLE BALD EAGLES.
For real though, "the Krakens" is a stupid team name.
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@Vader
Choose the Black Hawks as my favourite team? Well because my dad rooted for them as a kid, so I was raised on them. My dad said he started rooting for them because he loved their jersey and logo.
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The Chicago Black Hawks are my favourite hockey team, and the former best team in the league. But now their trash...
- Toews' best seasons are probably behind him or are going to be behind him soon.
- Kane is stilling putting up good number but he's in his 30s now, so he'll be dropping off soon.
- Keith's numbers are dropping, plus he's in his late 30s, so he's going to retire soon.
- Seabrook is horribly injured, so he can't even play, but his stats are down, and down a lot.
However it looks like they're turning things around.
- Debrincat is a young superstar goalscorer.
- Kublinka is also a young superstar goalscorer
- Boquist looks like he'll become a good top 4 or even top 2 defenceman if he develops properly.
- Dach is a great depth guy down the middle, and with proper development he could become a top 6 or top 3 guy.
- Strome has blossomed in Chicago, lets hope he remains a 50-60 point player.
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@Intelligence_06
A mango is a mango that is a mango and not a non-mango.A mango is a mango that is a mango that is a mango, or a non-mango that isn't a non-mango, but not a mango that isn't a mango, nor a non-mango that is a non-mango; but is not a mango that isn't a mango, or a non-mango that is a non-mango, and not a mango that is a mango that is a mango, nor a non-mango that isn't a non-mango; and is not a non-mango that is a mango that is a mango, or a non-mango that isn't a non-mango, but not a mango that isn't a mango, nor a non-mango that is a non-mango; nor a non-mango that isn't a mango, or a non-mango that is a non-mango, and not a mango that is a mango, nor a non-mango that isn't a non-mango.
Its all so clear now, lol.
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@zedvictor4
I'm not getting the implication.
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I hope Oro does it, if he doesn't it'll take ages for someone else to get 100-0.
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ooh, thanks RM, I think I'm a tad overrated though.
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@whiteflame
Thanks WhiteFlame!!
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@MisterChris
Notice I said "detailed or broad" enough to be "useful." They may be mostly accurate, but they're probably not useful for determining nationwide crime rates. The US is INSANELY diverse.
I am not personally aware of the nuances of the databases to determine whether or not their "detailed or broad enough to be useful." below is all I have seen relating to the in-depthness or broadness of their records...
"The Texas DPS data separately show the number of convictions and arrests of illegal and legal immigrants for 44 and 46 different crimes, respectively, in the state of Texas by year from January 1, 2011, to November 15, 2017. This brief reports the conviction and arrest rates for each subpopulation of natives, illegal immigrants, legal immigrants, and all immigrants combined. This allows for a comparison of conviction and arrest rates between these sub-populations. This brief additionally displays conviction and arrest rates by select crimes."
As for your peer review comment, I will again appeal to my personal ignorance, I simply am not educated or informed enough to say that the peer review process is not proficient in weeding out bad studies in this area.
In short, no matter the barriers that exist in determining the truth of the matter, I can only work off of the data available. Although, I was not aware that data was so scarce relating to illegal immigrants.
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@MisterChris
Okay, I personally have not seen any evidence to support the notion that the statewide databases are inaccurate, just that on a federal level issues can sprout up.
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@MisterChris
I think it is also worth noting that the criminal activity rates among illegals is extremely difficult to measure, and based on a pretty big series of ever-changing assumptions and variables. The literature is really too speculative to be useful in deciding whether or not illegals commit more crimes than their legal counterparts or not.
This is indeed broadly true from what I've just looked up. But there are individual states like Texas that keep record of crime by immigration status. This is golden material for studying illegal immigrants, a study in 2018 stated that "Illegal immigrants made up about 6.4 percent of the Texas population in 2015 but only accounted for 5.9 percent of all homicide convictions."
Also, I would hope that bad studies would generally not sustain peer review.
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@Intelligence_06
This is not the debates sections, is it?
I made this a forum post because forums are usually more productive than debates when it comes to actually having your mind changed. Debating is probably more enjoyable however.
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@SirAnonymous
I wouldn't consider myself pro illegal immigrant, it is indeed preferable to have people enter legally, I also am not for open borders, though I have not dug deep into that issue. Personally, I would be curious what policies would encourage illegals to come in legally, anyhow, I still think it's important to note that the incessant complaints about illegals committing crime on mass are wrong. That is mainly why I put it in the opening post.
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Economy
Overall Impact
Research from Ian Goldin attributes two thirds of America's economic growth since 2011 to immigrants, coming to the conclusion that immigrants are "highly beneficial."
Wages
A 30 year meta analysis of immigrants and their impact on wages suggest that a 1% increase in the share of labourers that are foriegn born increases wages by 0.008%. In other words, immigrants do not have a large impact on wages.
Keep in mind that this analyses the short term impacts of immigration in the long term they might be some positive impacts...
"Immigrants are not simply workers but consumers. They increase the host country’s demand for goods and services. In the long run, immigration can lead to more investment, resulting in greater demand for labor and thus increased wages and employment in the economy."
Employment
A study by Rachel M. Friedberg and Jennifer Hunt came to the conclusion that a 10% increase in the share of labourers that are foriegn born decreases wages by 0-1% and has no impact on employment.
Keep in mind that the study I used for the wages segment stated that employment for natives could even increase in the long run.
Crime
Illegals
A 2018 analysis of all 50 states and DC over the course of 24 years found that illegals were less likely to commit crime than natives.
The Cato Institute reported that illegals were 40 percent less likely to get arrested and 46 percent less likely to commit murder.
So far I have only seen one study that clearly demonstrated illegals committing more crime, but Cato did a debunking. According to Cato the study assumed all people classified as “non-US citizen and deportable” were illegals, but in actuality a very large portion of the people under this label were legals that violated the terms of their visas.
Moreover, even if this was a valid study, which it does not appear to be, it seems to be a massive outlier.
Legals
A study observing strictly Mexican immigrants found that Mexican immigrants were not more or less likely to commit property or violent crime.
Likewise, this study also found no relation between immigration and crime.
This has been one of the many issues I’ve changed my mind on, I was wondering if the people of DART could sway me back to being anti immigrant or not.
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@Intelligence_06
True, but I think that's what Sum1hugme wants, he seems to want as broad of a database as possible to observe members from, perhaps I am mistaken.
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@Sum1hugme
Yep, go to the forum leaderboard and search for a user in the input box that says filter participants. Every active user ever user has at least one forum post so every member you could ever want are in there. This avoids the problem you might run into searching in the debates leader board because many prominent members don't have debates.
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@Sum1hugme
you can search for people, go to the leader boards page and type a name into the filter participants input box in the top right. That's how it is on PC anyway.
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IDK, I think that I would have acted similarly in his situation, although I probably wouldn't have brought a gun in the first place, but that's beside the point. I am convinced that his actions can certainly be justified, but it's not an easy cut and dry issue.
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