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@SirAnonymous
Then let's lynch someone you think is scum.
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The idea that the design of this game is such that town can't afford to make a single mistake starting from the very beginning is prima facie ridiculous.
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@MisterChris
I absolutely don't believe that the balance of this game hinges on whether or not the lovers decided or decided not to claim. And you are not considering the fact that the balance issue might be resolved from information that we haven't yet uncovered rather than immediately concluding that the information we have is wrong. It could be one or the other or a combination of both. But what matters is the ultimate conclusion of whether or not this is a game where it is too risky from the onset to lynch incorrectly.
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we have to ask ourselves whether or not we are in a position where a single mistake made on the first day of the game is going to decide the rest of the game. I am fairly confident that this is not the case. however it seems like people have taken the partial information we have and concluded that based on that partial information it is too risky to lynch incorrectly.
now maybe you believe we are in fact in a game whose design is such that it is too risky for town to lynch day one because of its design. I think this is a fairly unlikely scenario and if you do then this raises the question of how we resolve the inconsistency between these two conclusions. how can it be too risky for us to lynch based on the partial information we have while at the same time recognizing that it is unlikely that the design of the game is such that it is too risky to lynch on the first day?
and the answer is simple: either the information we have is not correct or there is something about the information we don't yet have that would resolve this inconsistency. but that is ultimately irrelevant so long as we conclude that the game is not designed such that Ms lynching on day one is too risky to allow then it doesn't matter what the information we have tells us. We have to have faith that the game is playable. In that line I suggest we lynch.
Lynching even a miss Lynch doesn't really hurt town in terms of numbers cuz it actually makes it easier to find the remaining scum by increasing the base probability that any given player is scum. Combined with results and analysis you are more likely to find scum when there is more scum to find. The only time it hurts town is when we lose a power roll. This is why lynching the Miller is the ideal lynch. We don't lose a power roll, instead we are losing an anti-town roll. If anything this improves the situation for town.
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@MisterChris
@skittlez09
Regardless of how I feel about anyone's individual claims, the sum result is you are essentially saying we can't afford to mislynch today.
That is to say, we are in a MYLO situation.
So you are saying that the design of this game is to put town immediately into a MYLO situation. Town can't ever make a single mistake. And, since this depended on the lovers claiming, then that we were originally in this position unwittingly.
Do you believe that this is a likely scenario?
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@MisterChris
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@MisterChris
Agreed, if we were lynching on those reasons. But I don't think there is enough time to start a brand new wagon.
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@Intelligence_06
You going to do something?
Like explain why you thought it would be a good idea to out what you thought was a double voter?
Or vote on a wagon?
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@SirAnonymous
25 hours and 5 minutes, although I'm hoping to reach a decision before then.
Wrong. The Day Phase ends in that time, meaning the Day Phase will be over and you won't have an opportunity to make any decision.
Ok, that's a pedantic slicing.
But not really.
Take a look at the 2nd DP of BAMF Mafia, specifically starting here:
Those are caught-red-handed, smoking-gun results. You hardly ever see those in a Mafia game. Not only was the watcher on the kill target, catching the only person to have visited the kill target, but Speed was also caught lying about his claim. Double whammy. You can't get any better than that.
It took 19 hours to lynch Speed from that point.
19 hours with conclusive results, a lie, and less people than we have now. If there is a more ideal scenario for catching and lynching scum, I'd love to see it.
Taking that as a Best Case Scenario, you don't have 25 hours, you have 6. Assuming you started a wagon from scratch with an orgy of evidence and needing only 4 votes.
But we quite clearly don't have a Best Case Scenario. We have no results. We have no major slips. And we need 5 votes, not 4. With 4 votes in 19 hours, that's an average of about 5 hours per vote, so for 5 votes (including your own), you're going to need about 24-25 hours.
So, with ideal results and needing 5 votes, you have 1 hour to decide.
But you don't have ideal results. So the time to decide, effectively, is past. There is really no opportunity to start a new wagon meaning the only available options are the existing wagons: skittlez and VTNL.
So if you disagree with a skittlze lynch, you've essentially already decided.
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@SirAnonymous
Okay, fair enough, I won't quibble on the details. If you need more time to decide, you need more time to decide.
Quick question: As of the time of the posting of this post right here, how much time do you think you have available to decide?
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@MisterChris
Your interpretation of what "Early" means in my post is completely wrong.2a: before the usual or expected timeex: the train arrived early
I disagree that the "usual" or "expected time" for the Day Phase to end is the time limit posted by the mod. So I do not agree that ending before that time is "early." Therefore it is not my position that the Day Phase should "end early."
What I DON'T agree with is your read on Lunatic.
Given that I have vehemently opposed NLing, if I hammered the VTNL right now, how would that affect your read of me?
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@SirAnonymous
I didn't see any mention of that in the specific post I was replying to.
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@MisterChris
At no point have I argued for ending the DP "early." Early implies ending the Day Phase sooner than it should be ended. This is Lunatic's deliberate misrepresentation of my position which is now stuck in your head with his repeated use of loaded terms like "rushing."
I disagree with the fundamental proposition that the Day Phase should last as long as the time allotted. So I'm not arguing that the Day Phase should end "early", I argue that the Day Phase simply doesn't need to last as long as the time given to us. That it's natural conclusion can significantly less than the time allotted. This isn't the DP ending "early" this is the DP ending "exactly when it should."
While I understand the lack of desire to wade through the argument between me and Lunatic, allow me to present an accurate representation of my position and behavior this Day Phase:
I call suspicion into skittlez claim
Off-Topic/Jokes
Using skittlez wagon to evaluate other's behavior
Suspicion on Intelligence (also the whole Lover thing)
Rebutting claims that hammering someone makes them scum (or is otherwise a bad thing)
Polling people about who they would be willing to lynch
Evaluating whether it is better to lynch than no lynch
Encouraging people to lynch
Generic Game Analysis
All of the above gets us to post #304. Note at this point I'm simply encouraging people to find someone to lynch at all and to get people into the mindset of actually lynching someone. No mention of time frames. That begins here:
With SirAnon's response to oro. To which I responded:
To repeat, nothing I've said up to this point implies a rushed or quick as possible Day Phase. My primary issue with Sir (and later Lunatic's) stance is that the only reason they've presented for not lynching is that there exists more time. That the very existence of more time in the Day Phase implies that taking any action to end it is "rushing."
I disagree with this implication. The Day Phase should take exactly as long as is needed to decide on a lynch, then the lynch should be carried out, regardless of how much time is left on the clock. This is my primary and fundamental issue.
If you can't decide on a lynch yet. Fine. But Sir didn't say that. In fact, Sir explicitly agreed with lynching someone. The only objection to lynching provided at that point was: the day phase still has time left. And this is what I disagree with. The mere fact that the Day Phase has time left should not be reason alone to refrain from pushing a lynch on someone. If you have a different reason for not wanting to lynch someone or act, fair, but the reason should be more than just "there's time."
So let's continue on with the analysis:
More Off-Topic/Jokes
Justifying a lynch on skittlez
https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/4823/post-links/203197 (note, Chris, this is the response to your analysis you specifically requested)
Vote Counts
Arguing against NLing specifically
Super scummy opportunistic bandwagoning
Meta-argument with Lunatic
Pushing for Activity
Calling out Lunatic for suspicious behavior
So, only about a quarter of my substantive posts (minus jokes and vote counts and stuff) were my argument with Lunatic, so it would be a disservice to the conversation if people walk way from this DP thinking that's what it was all about and a personal disservice to me if they characterize my position by Lunatic's incorrect comments about it.
Again, I do not suggest the DP must be rushed or performed as quickly as possible. The length of the DP is dictated by activity of which we have a lot. What i object to is refusing to act for no other reason than the fact that there is time left. People should have a better reason than that. Waiting for the sake of waiting is a waste of time.
Now that I've addressed the "5 pages arguing for ending it early" let's address the Lunatic giving in part.
Lunatic, in no certain terms, said that he is explicitly suggesting the Day Phase time out rather than actively Vote to No Lynch:
Like why have a VTNL option at all? Just let the day phase time out. Lynch or get off the pot.I mean, this is basically what I am suggesting. Not actually VTNL'ing.
Less than 5 hours later he "gives in"? Gives in to what? The argument had long been over since then, so it's not like I wore him down.
When someone takes a complete 180 without any reason, that is something of a red flag.
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Remember, Lunatic is actually against NLing and would rather the Day Phase time out:
So why the VTNL?
This is inconsistent.
VTL Lunatic
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Why is Lunatic rushing for a NL? We have 2 more days to squeeze water out of this stone.
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Unofficial Vote Count
skittlez09 - SupaDudz , drafterman (2/5)
VTNL - skittlez09, MisterChris (2/5)
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@Barney
You were hammered but Speed hasn't processed it yet. Don't keep us in suspense and tell us how you'll flip.
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I think it's worth noting that I didn't seek out Lunatic for this discussion, he decided the best use of this DP was to dredge up an old argument neither of us are willing to change stances up and repetitively hound me about it. A meta-position that has no bearing on my affiliation in any given game.
That's what he wants to spend his 2.5 days on. These are his golden nuggets.
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@Lunatic
Its demonstrated by the fact that you just jumped from oro back to skittlez. On my phone now or I would link it but you've mentioned multiple times you don't care whose lynched as long as a lynch occurs.
If you feel that my actions are not consistent with my words, then you can raise that as a question. After all, it may (read: "is") simply your inferrence that is wrong.
But I am telling you to your face, in explicit and no uncertain terms that:
At no point did I suggest you, or anyone, "quickly bandwagon any lynch that occurs."
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@Lunatic
I have always been annoyed and irritated by what I feel are deliberate misrepresentations of my position that I sincerely believe you do for the solely reason that you know that it riles me up.
Case and point:
At no point did I suggest you, or anyone, "quickly bandwagon any lynch that occurs."
So you can link where I said this or retract it as a misrepresentation of my position.
If you remain true to form, you'll ignore this and continue with the misrepresentations.
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@Lunatic
At no point did I suggest you, or anyone, "quickly bandwagon any lynch that occurs."
So you can link where I said this or retract it as a misrepresentation of my position.
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@Lunatic
How exactly are you using the information from the reaction test by voting for skittlez lol. I mean you pointed out that you thought intelligence was scummy but dropped that and are now back on skittlez because it's the most convienent lynch for you.
I'm using all the information available to develop reads and decide on courses of action. I'm not inclined to share all of the inner thought processes that lead from one to the other. I think any lynch except my own is preferable than a no lynch.
But no, I'm not inclined to explain to you how I'm using any information to do anything.
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@SirAnonymous
Lunatic - "I suck at this game"
By contrast, I don't suck at this game. So, factor that in in deciding whose theories garner more merit.
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@Lunatic
Though I may be willing to make a bet with you, that quick bandwagoning isn't always profitable. Either in this game or the next I can just say fvck it, and quickly bandwagon every lynch that occurs since that it what you suggest is better gameplay.
That isn't what I suggest is better gameplay. I really don't know what you think you get by so transparently misrepresenting my position. I mean, it's one thing if you think so low of other people that they'll be fooled by it, but the idea that you think you're going to trick me into believing your mischaracterization of what I believe - I don't even know why you try.
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@Lunatic
I agree that the argument has run it's course. Ping me when these gold nuggets of yours start flowing.
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See, and that's my point. That's at least three times that you have deliberately mischaracterized my position as "rushing."
When I say that long day phases are repetitive, I'm not saying that this is how it should happen. I'm not being prescriptive I'm being descriptive. It's how things play out in practice.
You want to prove me wrong, then dispense with the foundationless theory and disprove me wrong in practice. You want to show that there is golden information and people don't repeat themselves and talk in circles: then stop repeating yourself and start posting these gold nuggets.
I'm waiting.
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@Lunatic
I can spin this the same way, you want to fast rush the game because you find taking the time to look into posts and analyze them as being boring. "aT lEaSt Be HoNeSt AbOuT uR mOtIvEs"
Except that is you making up lies about my motivations. I'm simply pointing out your motivation based on your own words.
Behavioral analysis, looking into motives of why someone would push for certain lynches, contradictions, etc. What was the point of your reaction test earlier if not to get behavioral information?
And I got it. And now I'm acting on it. That's the point of getting information after all. Not to treasure it and put it in a chest. But to actually, you know, use it and play the game.
When are you going to start playing?
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@Lunatic
I think the entire focus of the game shouldn't be analyzing whether a miller and lovers are in the game lol.
There's your problem right there. You think the entire game is just this day phase. It isn't. There are more, I assure you. I hope we get to see it before I start collecting social security.
I mean if your goal is to cater to lazy people, then yes. I say fvck the lazy @ssholes lol. We are slowly phasing out of that with players like SA, and misterchris, but I think the people who get bored of reading things are part of the larger problem with mafia, and eventually we will either phase them out, or they will win and all games will be lazy crap shoots with no effort involved. Here's hoping that won't be the case.
You say this, but the solution would be to actually bring more information or a fresh spin to old arguments. You haven't done either.
The day phase is towns most important tool for finding scum. The longer a phase goes on, the more information comes out.
Actually that's false. And if it was true, you said you don't want that to happen: "ousting more information is probably harmful at this point"
The more likely scum will say something that they may later contradict themselves with. Scum don't want long day phases, remember, they are lying and constantly have to keep track of their lies. Town have nothing to lie about, and are much less likely to slip like that.
All of this is good in theory but it fails in practice. History shows that scum will simply fade into the background and let town tunnel in on each other. Why you suddenly have goldfish memory about this is beyond me.
Information is gold, why settle for a bar when you can have a treasure chest of it?
When you start posting gold, you'll have me convinced.
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@Lunatic
I enjoy hunting scum and getting them lynched. Not virtually banging my head against a wall with people who want to waste days of everyone else's lives because it personally amuses them.
You realize that in most settings, this is a rather quick party game, right? You play live mafia. Do those games take literal days to play? No. The entire game is over in a few hours at most.
That's because it all happens in real-time.
And that's my point. The ONLY reason these forum games take multiple days is because of logistical reason involving player activity and input. It is a necessary deviation from the ideal. If we can get closer to that ideal with high activity, then all the better! Seize the opportunity!
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@Lunatic
So as long as everyone jumps in the game says "Hi and bye" we should just random lynch every day phase because everyones "weighed in"?
No, that isn't anywhere close to anything I've said.
The majority of the posts so far have been non constructive for reads.
Then get better at reading, I guess. No sense in wasting everyone else's time because you can't read. Besides, you're position is that lynches are mostly random anyway, right?
The longer the phase goes on the more content we have to analyze from each of the players. I didn't pursue my scum reads in your game til about half way through the day phase, and there was plenty more time for content to pop up as scum get more and more impatient.
No, the longer the phase goes on, the less interested people will get. People having arguments will tunnel on each other. People outside those arguments will get bored of reading them. Longer phases are just generally worse for everyone involved except maf.
You don't have to be talking in circles. You could look into and analyze people's posts further as further conversation develops. Your forcing this "cycle" of insanity on yourself for basically no reason. I don't think the conversations are going in circles.
Right, which is why it is an opportune time to lynch, have a night phase and come back to the next day phase with fresh information. Why you would want to force the DP to be longer until it reaches the point where people are talking in circles is beyond me.
They aren't inherently redudant because you decided they were, and you can't just assume that everyone shares your boredom. In fact I am quite the opposite of you in terms of where I find fun in this game. Quick day phases ending in random lynches sounds like the exact opposite of "fun" for me. I personally don't see what you get out of it.
Ok, so then just say that. You want to stall and slow roll the game because it personally amuses you. At least be honest about your motivations.
I mean, this is basically what I am suggesting. Not actually VTNL'ing. I've said I am open to a lynch if something scummy enough stands out to me, and I've also suggested using the time allotted. I've also explained why ousting more information is probably harmful at this point unless we are going to cave into a mass claim. Which I am not opposed to if we have to decide on a lynch today. Because Mafia already have 4 potential power roles to POE from tonight, which leaves them a 25% chance of killing the cop which already isn't ideal.
Lol, so you don't want more information to be ousted? E.g. "all the information that we are going to get has already been gotten"
So if you don't want any new information to come to light, what exactly do you expect to come from 2.5 of everyone's lives, other than your own self-enjoyment?
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@Lunatic
Seriously, your decision to make best use of this DP is to rehash an argument we've had before (always resulting in impasse). You have nothing new to bring to the table, what the hell do you need 2.5 days for to do, exactly?
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@Lunatic
We've had this argument dozens of times. Do you really think having it again is going to change anyone's position?
Having multiple RL days is for meta logistical purposes so every player has adequate chance to weigh in.
We've had that. Everyone has weighed in. So let's act. This isn't "rushing", it's playing the damn game.
There is literally nothing to be gained by waiting. Everyone has chimed in. Unless someone has a day phase roke and is going to produce results then all the information that we are going to get has already been gotten. From here on out people are just going to repeat themselves (like I already am) and talk in circles.
There is nothing to be gained by waiting until the very last second to decide except to clog up the thread with redundant posts and make people bored.
Like why have a VTNL option at all? Just let the day phase time out.
Lynch or get off the pot.
Having multiple RL days is for meta logistical purposes so every player has adequate chance to weigh in.
We've had that. Everyone has weighed in. So let's act. This isn't "rushing", it's playing the damn game.
There is literally nothing to be gained by waiting. Everyone has chimed in. Unless someone has a day phase roke and is going to produce results then all the information that we are going to get has already been gotten. From here on out people are just going to repeat themselves (like I already am) and talk in circles.
There is nothing to be gained by waiting until the very last second to decide except to clog up the thread with redundant posts and make people bored.
Like why have a VTNL option at all? Just let the day phase time out.
Lynch or get off the pot.
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@Barney
You also have to consider risk vs. reward. Barring certain exceptions, all mafiosos are generally equally balanced in terms of role power. So lynching any mafia is as good as lynching any other mafia. So the reward is the same. And even if there was one mafia that was significantly more powerful, we have no way of knowing which it is. So not only is the reward the same, we have no control over it.
But hitting the wrong townie could be a severe blow. But we can choose which townie we are okay losing.
So while we can't maximize our reward, we can minimize our risk by lynching a claim such as miller.
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Like, unless you end up with smoking gun results (rare), the only other time you ever even get close to 50% scum on someone is at a LYLO situation.
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In any event, even if you disagree with a skittlez lynch, point your quasi-Bayesian analysis on the rest of the players, pick the one with the highest probability of scum > 25%, and push their lynch.
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@MisterChris
Sure. If lynching skittlez is 55% chance of favoring the mafia then it's 45% favoring the town. Most probably there are two mafia, so from any Townie POV, there is 2/8 = 1/4 = 25% of hitting mafia from a purely random standpoint.
So the ultimate conclusion is that lynching skittlez almost doubles our chances of hitting scum.
The real question is: why AREN'T you lynching him?
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I just came back from Starbucks and all the cool sooner hipsters say that only boomers NL on D1
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VTNL is totally lame, guys. Like... Why play? We did all of this to then do... Nothing? This is the primary power Town has over Maf and we're just going to not use it? It's like Maf choosing to not kill because they're too lazy to agree on a night kill.
If we were meant to NL then the game would be Night start.
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Unofficial (Intelligence, this is UNOFFICIAL) Vote Count
skittlez09 - Intelligence_06 , drafterman (2/5)
MisterChris - SirAnonymous (1/5)
VTNL (i.e. "lame") - Ragnar (1/5)
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