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@Savant
I buy a good chunk of Luna's reasoning. In addition, I think Austin or WF would have cautioned GP against claiming role cop. Hence, I think the second scum is either Casey doing a bus last day phase, which would explain accusing GP early on for a reason that didn't make much sense, or WyIted not caring and letting GP do whatever he wants. I don't think WyIted has claimed yet, so we may as well deal with him first.
Not sure I understand the reasoning here for dismissing Austin and me. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if GP just hopped on, made a split second decision, and posted without input from his scum partner. He posted early enough in the DP that I don’t think his partner even had much opportunity to discuss it with him.
I’m not saying it can’t be WyIted or Casey (though both of them would have just had to go ham on some early bussing for that to be true), I just don’t think this reasoning is going to get us anywhere.
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@Lunatic
Austin- Dude is like confirmed town in my eyes at this point. He was literally the only one that seemed to hard town read GP and his claim, and was actively FOS'ing me for being on the wagon. GP was a sinking ship though and it would be clear to anyone with common sense to abandon that ship. Him sticking by his GP read even when it was basically inevitable, shows genuine townie lack of knowledge, and he knew he would be scum read if he was wrong (he even acknowledges this towards the end of the day phase). Unless this is some big WIFOM reverse psychology play that most people probably wouldn't buy into but just conveniently works on me, austin is town here. I just can't see him doing that as scum.
You're going to need to explain this one to me better than this. I just don't get this take at all. Austin's reasoning for why GP was town last DP made incredibly little sense, and the notion that Austin is town just because he was adamant that GP was town does not make sense to me. This entire argument reads as WIFOM because, frankly, no choice made a huge amount of sense for Austin after he gave his reads and defended him. Like you said, abandoning ship would have drawn attention to him after an already baffling read on GP. There's more than valid reason for him to avoid that by just staying off of GPs lynch and proclaiming himself absolutely stumped that GP flipped scum. It's not "some big WIFOM reverse psychology" for someone to realize that their attempt to shake a lynch failed and try to play it off as a lack of awareness.
I'm not entirely sure whose lynch I'll be pursuing yet this DP, but I do not agree that Austin is hard town.
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@Savant
Is Pie actually dead? Why is he posting?Also, my action failed.
I don’t want a claim yet, but who did you target?
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@Mharman
The bomb has been planted.
Is this just flavor text or does it relate to something that happened?
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@sadolite
Assuming the reductions from 4000 to 6000 a day to 600 are accurate and true figures that happened after Trump became President., I can only postulate it was because of the threat of tariffs and not Canadas and Mexico's unwavering commitment to doing the right thing without being influenced.
I’m not really understanding this perspective. Are you saying that those reductions in border crossings were solely the result of the threat of tariffs and not the numerous executive actions Trump has signed and implemented since becoming president? Those I believe have a clear and direct causative link to reduced border crossings. I haven’t seen any evidence that the threat of tariffs brought on policy shifts in Mexico or Canada that have had any effect on border crossings, so while I understand giving Trump credit for that reduction, I don’t understand why that reduction should be attributed specifically to his threat of tariffs.
I guess I'm supposed to believe all this reduction in illegal immigration just sorta happened when Trump became President. The massive reductions would have happened anyway if Kamala became President. We as the voters were just to impatient. illegal immigration is complex like rocket science.
That’s a pretty absurd misrepresentation of my point. I said the measures taken as a result of the threat of tariffs were largely non-unique to Trump. I did not say that everything Trump has done with regards to the border would have happened without him. I’ve even given him full credit for the reduction in border crossings, but I’m far more hesitant to award him any meaningful solvency resulting from the threat of tariffs, specifically.
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@sadolite
Simple, illegal boarder crossings increased during the Biden administration. If any of these so called agreed to plans would have been implemented there would have been no double digit increases in illegal boarder crossings. Illegal boarder crossing are happening and are being allowed to happen or they are not. Illegal boarder crossings are down from 4000 to 6000 a day to less than 600 a day in one week of the Trump Presidency. But I am sure Canada and Mexico are responsible for that not Trump.
So, two things.
First, you’re right that border crossings have decreased, but all those have apparently been Trump’s doing, like you said. Your argument, however, is that these deals he got with Mexico and Canada were wins because of the declines in border crossings… that already happened? Am I reading that right? Either Trump achieved those reductions through his direct actions or the actions of Mexico and Canada did it before Trump tried to levy those tariffs. It could be both, but notably, neither of those demonstrate the effectiveness of the tariffs.
Second, assuming there is some part of these deals that results in reduced border crossings, please point to the change that was not already in place prior to the threat of tariffs. You’re talking about how it could affect border traffic, not how it has, but if there’s something new in there, point it out. The reason I ask is because your inherent assumption is that these policy changes were both missing from the Biden administration and will be responsible for reductions in this Trump administration. There are a lot of differences between these administrations, so I’d like to know why you think this specific policy difference (assuming there is one) will matter.
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@WyIted
It seems the article was saying that they did those things previously without the need for threats. Is the insinuation that they were cooperative before so they will automatically be cooperative now?
I wouldn’t call it an insinuation.
Canada literally already did the main thing that Trump says he’s getting them to do (the $1.3 billion). They already were cooperating, but Trump is spinning it as though he somehow got them to cooperate.
Mexico has cooperated multiple times, including with the previous Trump administration, in sending their troops to the border, which Trump claims he secured only because of his threat to impose tariffs this time. Was it automatic because they’d done it before? No. Did it need to be forced out of them by threatening a trade war? Past evidence suggests it was not necessary. It doesn’t seem like Trump tried any other tactics first this time around, so we don’t have anything to compare it to now, which means we have to rely on past behavior.
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@sadolite
ITS ALREADY BEING SPUN THAT TRUMP CAVED BECAUSE HE SUSPENDED THE TARRIFS FOR 30 DAYS. Also its being said that Canada and Mexico were going to do what Trump wants them to do anyway under the Biden administration. They just didn't get around to implementing before Biden left office.
He accepted measures that these countries were already doing (and yes, that was both during Trump's previous administration and Biden's), things that they had set in place multiple times before without the threat of a trade war, as responses sufficient to warrant backing off his threat to impose tariffs. If your thinking is that they just didn't get around to it, then explain how that $1.3 billion border plan from Canada had already passed over a month ago, or why Mexico has willingly sent troops to the border on multiple occasions without a threat of tariffs. And if all of this could have happened without the threat of tariffs, then how can this be spun as a win?
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@WyIted
Issuing 10,000 troops to the U.S.-Mexico border is almost routine at this point for America’s southern neighbor. In 2019, Mexico sent 15,000 troops to the border, and sent another 10,000 in 2021 to help with migration. In 2022, Mexico agreed to invest $1.5 billion to help Joe Biden upgrade the border, and in 2023 implemented 15 administrative actions to assist in America’s deportation of migrants.
Trump was also roasted for his lackluster arrangement with Canada, which saw Prime Minister Justin Trudeau commit to a $1.3 billion border plan—that was arranged in December. Trudeau also pledged to appoint a “fentanyl czar” and list cartels as terrorists, though just a fraction of America’s black-market fentanyl imports cross the nation’s northern border. Approximately 0.2 percent of America’s fentanyl seizures occur at the Canadian border, according to federal statistics.During an appearance on CNN, Rampell summed up the situation nicely, arguing during a network roundtable that “Trump is trying to repackage the status quo as a victory.”
“That’s what the leaders of these foreign countries are learning,” Rampell said. “You don’t actually have to give Trump anything. You have to let him announce victory on TV.”
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@Savant
I assume you're strongly town reading Pie if you're willing to let him get the perk.
It’s not a strong townread, but it exists for reasons I’ve already mentioned. I have another reason for doing it, but I’ll keep that to myself.
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@ILikePie5
I’ll be your backup unless you want to be my backup.
I’ll be yours.
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I’ll vote by 8 PM EST. If Vader hasn’t posted by then, he can post his reads next DP.
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@ILikePie5
Scum does have a faction perk, yes
do it scum, get the bonus for hammering
Yep, looks like a scum slip alright.
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@Vader
I am giving you a little bit longer to get your reads out since you said you were giving them, but be aware that I’m not pushing this too close to the deadline.
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@Savant
Faction perk implies scum has a roleblocker. Vader's claim implies scum has a ninja. If both are true, that doesn't really leave room for a scum role cop. If GP is scum, maybe the rber is third party.
I understand the first sentence and the second, but I don’t understand the third and the fourth seems like a stretch. Why couldn’t GP be a JOAT with an RB and an RC? Why couldn’t his partner have multiple roles? Not really sure what makes a TP RB more likely.
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@Greyparrot
do it scum, get the bonus for hammering
I don’t know why you keep saying this as though it’s general knowledge. We are privy to the existence of a bonus for being on the lynch if you are scum, or being off the lynch if you aren’t. Why are you assuming that scum gets a bonus for hammering? Where’s that coming from?
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@Vader
I'll wait for your reads. Ping me and I'll go ahead and hammer.
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@AustinL0926
I'm a non-player action.I don't play shooter games, so I'm not sure what category it would fall in. As far as I can tell, it has to do with how the map is designed, if that helps.
Alright, that sounds like an informational claim, since that's generally how maps function.
Unvote
I'm good with just proceeding with this lynch. Unless anyone has a good reason to pursue more information, I'll go ahead with the hammer. I'll wait until the end of my workday in about 2 hours to vote just in case anyone has anything else they'd like to add.
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If it gets much closer to the end of the DP without word from Austin, I’ll switch my vote to GP. There is no reason whatsoever to no lynch. Should that happen, I’ll be seeking a full claim from Austin first thing next DP.
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@Savant
According to the post where he claimed it, yes, it's a 1X role. And I agree.
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@AustinL0926
At this point, the lynch on GP seems like a foregone conclusion and I'm fine with that. I haven't made a secret that he's my biggest sus at the moment, and I think others have laid out good reasons as to why.
I will, however, add a couple of points.
I think Savant's point about the potential to gain some information from GP's role has some merit in that, if GP is town and we lynch him next DP, we at least come away with information from his lynch. The trouble is that I'm not seeing another viable target here (Austin's really the only other player who has been rubbing me the wrong way and I think GP's flip will better inform my perspective on him anyway). Any alternative lynch would both be a risky venture in terms of lost role potential whether through pushing for a claim and having to make a rapid-fire decision or just straight up lynching someone unclaimed. I see the value in the Role Cop, but I'm good at this point with keeping as many roles hidden as possible, as that will give town the most opportunity to get shit done NP1.
That being said, I'd still like to ensure that everyone has provided at least some softclaim for their role this DP, however loose it may be, rather than giving scum the full gamut of choices for fake claims to give later. Since we haven't developed a list of known claims and softclaims so far, here it is:
Vader: Killcam - Gravedigger (non-player action, informational)
GP: The Tag System - 1X Role Cop (non-player action, informational)
WF: (player action, in-game object)
Luna: (non-shooter-specific mechanic)
Pie: (player action)
Savant: (non-player action, informational)
WyIted: (non-player action, low gameplay effect?)
Notably, I haven't seen either Casey nor Austin respond with a category for their character, though in Casey's case, I think they've softed enough about their role that it's less of an issue. It's more glaring that Austin hasn't responded at all. We have about 14 hours left in the DP, so I'm going to seek that information in the time we have.
VTL Austin
State whether yours is a player action or a non-player action. If it belongs to a category (e.g. informational, in-game object), please state the category as well.
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@Savant
Slight scum on Pie rn tbh. Going back through his posts, I sense a lot of just going through the motions.Also there's this question he asked Mharman: "Have you given fake claims and/or fake roles to scum"Mharman said he couldn't answer. There's a good chance Pie confirmed beforehand that Mharman couldn't answer and asked the question to look townie. And the way it's phrased makes it seem like Pie expects Mharman will give the answer. I don't think a townie would expect that and they would probably phrase it asking if Mharman would be able to answer that question (i.e. "are you able to tell us if...") I mean, when has a mod not said they gave fake claims in the game description and then came out and revealed they did when someone asked them? It doesn't make sense, and I don't think a townie would ask the question.
I mean, to be fair, I asked earlier about a theme split and Mharman divulged that there was one. Maybe he posted that elsewhere and only confirmed that because of my question, but I can understand why he'd ask about game mechanics, particularly after seeing that I got an answer. As for calling out the particular phrasing... yeah, I don't really see it. I'm not townreading Pie for asking this question and I doubt few people are, so if that was his aim, it wasn't very effective.
But as scum pretending to be town? Yeah, I think Pie would ask the question pretending he's sure to get an answer even though he knows he won't. I'm looking for examples in previous games, but right now all I have is a hunch.
I understand why you'd consider it, but at least for now, I don't see this as a good reason to scumread him.
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@ILikePie5
Do yall town read Casey? Why or why not?
Yes. Some of that may have more to do with just disbelieving that Casey would put themselves out there and be so confident as to vote GP early as scum. Part of it is just that Casey's logic has looked pretty good to me throughout. The hints at their claim limit their claim early to a role that, from the sound of it, could easily be CC'd. It's a lot of risky moves for scum.
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@ILikePie5
Okay so player action vs non-player action. My character is done via player action.
We can do it that way. Given what I've already stated, it should come as no surprise that mine is by player action.
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@Lunatic
Alright, that's something. Not going to push on this, since it sounds like your category might be pretty specific with a broad application to a lot of game types.
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@Lunatic
You want to do that after you and me just figured out almost every character in the game in the last mafia game based on early hints in the same manor?
To be fair, the way we did it then was specifically meant to limit choices to known quantities. We had a clear list of ERBs to work from, several of which we expected from the outset based on popularity, and people were restricting themselves severely by telling us the specific seasons they belonged to (I didn't even have to suggest that). I'm keeping this purposely more vague. If people want to try and guess what of the dozens of objects in a shooter game could be mine, be my guest. That's a large pool. If giving away your category limits your claim to the point that it's easily guessed, then start from a wider category.
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There's a lot we could argue when it comes to how this game balances and where a Role Cop would fit in, so I'm going to just going to set that aside for now. Instead, I think I'd like to try some potential theme analysis.
We have two character claims on the board: the Killcam (Vader) and Tag System (GP). Both occur distinct from player actions, with the Killcam being the system showing you how you died from your opponent's perspective and the Tag System being a means to distinguish targets on the battlefield. I'd say both of them fall into informational mechanics in general.
I'll say that my mechanic is decidedly not informational. It's an object that exists in game, a tool to be used directly.
So, I'd like everyone to categorize their character. If it fits into a similar mechanic or, if it is completely different, please provide the general category it fits under. I think it's worth at least starting to restrict claims this way and getting a feel for plausible theme splits.
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@Lunatic
but there are just a lot of niggling doubtsreported
Fair. I deserve it.
The last game I played with supa as scum I remember he hard buddied me when I was under perssure, and at worst, he just doesn't pressure his scum buddy like Joebob in years mafia. There are other examples I'd have to dig up in order to really prove my point. That said, once he gets called out for it he probably will be hyper aware of it. So my sus will really only come into play if GP turns scum.
Alright. I've got other reasons to townread Vader atm, but I get the reasoning.
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@ILikePie5
In regards to my own role, I will say that Savant is actually mostly correct here. My role and GP's are not incompatible, but it is another factor that makes me raise an eyebrow. Suffice it to say that I am hesitant to fullclaim right now. I will if more players want me to, but for now I'll leave it at that.I think you should claim. You’re hinting at an investigative role, which mafia are now aware of, so might as well just claim now
I get the argument that the information may be useful in deciding GP's lynch, though I think Casey would have just come out with it if they felt this would be decisive. I got the same hint, though I don't agree that it's just better to get the claim as a result. It's a claim I'd still be willing to get if we don't have anyone else we're sussing by the end of the DP, but I'm not going to pursue it right now.
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Alright, some reads. A lot of this is going to focus on the ways people have responded to the sus on GP, since I think that is somewhat telling.
1. Greyparrot
I've made my opinion clear on his case. I believe there could be a town Role Cop, but there are just a lot of niggling doubts about how he's presented it, as well as behaviors that don't match what I would expect from town GP. Right now, he's my only scumlean.
2. Pie
I like Pie's breakdown of the early information in this game, and of Vader's role in particular. I don't agree that Casey's being too aggressive (in general, I think people are jumping on Casey for putting pressure on GP for reasons I don't understand, but I'll get to that), though I like how Pie has shifted to focusing on Casey's claim as a potential basis for GP's lynch, even if I'm a little hesitant to push for it. Lean town.
3. Casey
I'll admit that it helps that I agree with Casey in his sus on GP, but I also just don't understand the turn on Casey as a result of their vote. It's a bit more aggressive than normal, but the VTL comes off more as a stronger read than usual rather than some massive deviation. I get that we tend to sus everything that represents a significant step outside the norm, but we should put it in the context of this being GP specifically, meaning Casey was presented with a full claim early on that quickly set them off. Combined with the potential mechanical basis for the sus (I haven't seen clarity on that, not sure if it even exists since it was apparently someone else's interpretation), I can't really see the VTL as a reason to sus Casey. Lean town.
4. Wylted
Little to go off of so far. The defense of Casey's sus makes sense to me, and dismissing the faction perk out of hand comes off as a more likely town move than scum. Slight townlean.
5. Vader
Just going to have a hard time seeing Vader as anything but town with that claim. It might get harder to do if there's a Ninja in play and he just keeps getting Tracked or Watched to the NK, but I just don't see Vader taking this risk with a fake claim unless he was sure one of those roles would be in the game. His uncertainty regarding Casey might come off as a little odd without that, but Vader's my strongest townread atm.
6. Lunatic
While we agree on GP, I'm not really sure where the sus is coming from against Vader, and maybe that has more to do with just not seeing his full thought process on Vader since I haven't really seen the kind of buddying Luna is claiming he sees. The response to Austin comes off as authentic, but I can't say anything more than that. Just null to me.
7. Savant
The probability analysis isn't going anywhere for me, but I like how Savant has been doing his behavioral analysis for Casey and GP. The correction on the potential mechanical connection between Casey and GP's roles came off as pretty townie, though the rest isn't all that indicative, so he's a slight townlean.
8. Austin
I'm not really understanding the reasoning that is leading Austin to townread GP, particularly since it's all WIFOM logic (GP would never fakeclaim this) and modpsych (this seems like the kind of role Mharman would use). I get that this is only a townlean, which is as much as I've gotten, but I don't see any analysis of GP's behavior so far in this game, which is a basis several people have mentioned (myself included) for why GP seems off this game. I wouldn't say I'm at the point where I'm scumreading him over it because I can at least understand why these things could be important considerations for Austin, but it keeps him null for me.
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Been running around a lot today, but I’ll catch up and post later this afternoon.
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@Greyparrot
I actually did do exactly that.
You mean with this post? Can't say I see your paraphrasing in there, though admittedly, there's only a little of it in this game and I can at least understand why you'd put some extra attention on those elements that ChatGPT might not.
How dare you. Sir.
Just call it like I see it.
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Alright, a night’s sleep makes participating a lot easier.
I only just noticed the Faction Perk this morning and, tantalizing as it is, I don’t think it’s going to have much impact on my decisions this game. It’s a nice benefit to being on the right side of a lynch wagon, but it shouldn’t hold us back from participating in lynches. I’m also not entirely clear on what the Perk even does, i.e. what roles it circumvents. It likely does prevent things like the RB from being effective, but would a role now be effective on an Ascetic player? I’m not going to go speculate about a variety of roles here, I’ll only ask that everyone who has a role that might be impacted by this inquire with Mharman about how the Perk would affect it. Doesn’t mean you should aim to get said Perk, but you should know what it will do for you.
And yeah, the Role Cop claim rubs me the wrong way. The fact that GP initially seemed so sensitive to it was surprising, not usual for him to show this level of engagement with game mechanics this early. I’m not sure how to read into his paraphrasing of a paraphrased claim, especially since I don’t think he did this when he claimed last DP. Just a little weird all around.
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@Greyparrot
I think the faction perk implies that the scum team has some kind of blocking ability?
Not sure what that implies, but I'll deal with that in the morning. Signing off.
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@Savant
Town Role CopAllegedly.
For the moment at least (because I'm not going to do a lot of analysis tonight since it's late and I'm tired), I'm just acknowledging what I see. I'll interrogate claims more tomorrow. I do find it interesting that he's the Tag System.
So far, we've got a replay mechanic and a means of tracking targets. They're both mechanics that function out of the direct control of the the player, which is one distinction from mine.
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@Savant
For this reason, I don't see scum claiming gravedigger unless they have some information about roles or they're making some weird gambit. It will become apparent later if there's no tracker or watcher, at which point we can put Vader on the chopping block, but he's in my town pile for now.
Yep, same reason he's in mine.
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@Vader
@Mharman
Alright, seems like a relatively simple theme though I don't have a lot of experience with shooter games (mostly just Counter Strike once upon a time).
As for your SOP claim, it does make sense that you'd clarify it early. That means there's a town Tracker/Watcher or some other variant in play. And, obviously, no one should out that role if it's theirs. It's interesting that you're the Killcam, not something I was expecting based on my character, but it's giving me a wider idea of what could be in the game.
@Mharman I'm guessing based on the lack of specification in this regard that there is no theme split?
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That was a lot of fun. Made more bold moves this game as scum than I usually do and thankfully all of them paid off. A combination of luck, crazy tactics and Luna being a great scum partner made it possible. Well played Luna! As for town, definitely some unforced errors, but there was some really good play as well. If Austin’s role had worked DP1, pretty sure we would have been boned early. Definitely learning more and more about Savant’s tells each game, think we have to really work on our perception of him.
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@iamanabanana
I think you’re right about Austin. Not enough reason to keep him alive. VTL Austin
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@Lunatic
Okay so we have two killing roles with whiteflame and vader. Both have horrible justifications IMO. I think I am kind of understanding vaders better but it still seems wierd to me. Whiteflame's makes a bit more sense, but it's a role I've never seen or heard of before. But I doubt casey would put two killing roles in the game with each other, so I think it's likely there is at least one scum between the two of them. Still want to hear austins claim.
Agreed, it's pretty clear that it's one of us or the other.
I can see wf/austin too, but I also am not a huge fan of your claim either. And Banana could be scum too IG. I don't like how she immediately voted like that. But I dont know who she would be a scum team with.
Frankly, no one should be writing me off at this point. It's all behavior for me right now and my claim has no support, though I'm not the only one in that boat.
Nvm we couldn’t test Whiteflame ls role because you’d only get a kill if we’d already lynched him assuming your even town. No we have to decide a correct lynch today and tomorrow or we simply lose.
That's a given.
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@Vader
FMPOV, I feel like it has to be WF and Austin. The last 2 to claim with claims that a bit questionable to say the least. I think Austin's claim is a bit OP and honestly, a bit easy to make up to a certain extent. I think as scum I claimed it one time in a game. It's one that is easily to make up, and the fact that he has a flavor to it makes me way more suspicious. I also think the fact we had a 1x Justice already in this game (assuming Luna is telling the truth) makes it really hard for me to believe.
Considering Banana's in this game and her role frustrates the results for Luna's Justice role, I could see a world in which there are two investigative roles in this game, particularly with limited use cases. It does seem opportunistic to claim a role that hasn't gotten used because of the odd night restriction, and he's still in my PoE, but it's hard to dismiss the opportunity to get that additional info for next DP.
I also find WF claim very weird too. It pretty much functions as a passive Escort for NK's. This claim seems pretty easy to fakeclaim for the most part and I think the claim fits a bit too perfectly with the justifications.
I think most of this applies to your claim except that yours is active in that you get the Vig to use. Seems just as straightforward to fake your claim so long as you haven't gotten to use it. As for it being "too perfect" of a fit, it seems like there's some variation on that front, since some of the role claims have slotted better than others with their characters. Savant's JK looks about as well justified to me.
The only way that this isn't WF/Austin is if Luna/Banana pulled off an insane gambit. If that's the case, then hats off to both of them. But I think the balls to imply either, or, are scum and then to pull the 3p play just seems like too ballsy of a play to make in this game. But I could deffo see Luna doing it though. The fact that right after Luna posted and banana claimed the 3p strikes me so off.I feel like the obvious answer is WF/Austin and it's staring me straight in the face but I am trying to too much to read all options. My biggest scum read throughout this game has been WF for a multitude of reasons.
I still don't buy that either Luna or Banana are scum for reasons I've already covered, so I guess by PoE alone, you really don't have another target to choose. And yes, you've expressed other reasons to sus me. I'd include the pseudo-CC, which seems like the bigger issue with your and my role, I very much understand why you view me as sus for the same reason I view you the same.
I'm going to avoid touching the math on your Vig vs. my role. It seems pretty clear that one of our roles is real and the other is not. I think it's a mistake for others to rely on your logic, but from your point of view, you almost have to assume that as true.
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