The Russian Mafia DP3

I explained that carefully in DP2. All that has changed is there is now less room for error.

(1) If we lynch Luna and he's town then you know for sure that it's either Banana or I. You misslynch and town loses, but at least you have a chance of winning that way. Call that 50% chance of hitting scum. Would have been much better if we had started with Luna.

(2) If we lynch Luna and he's scum, then banana and I are exonerated. Not only have scum been found but the chances of miss-lynching town are drastically reduced.

If you lynch Banna or myself first you might be thinking that's 50/50 just like the first scenario, but that's wrong.

The actual alternative is between this 50/50 chance and the union of (1) and (2).

If the probability that Luna is scum is 25% then the probability that he is town is 0.75% and the probability that one of the two people left on the list is scum is at least 0.75 * 0.5 = 0.375.

You add that to the 0.25 and you get 62.5% chance of hitting scum in two days.

You start with people on the list it's not that high. It's not even 50/50 because you can lynch both Banana and I and we might both be innocent. That scenario is likely if Luna is scum, so sticking with the same made up number of 25% the chance that both of us (on the list) are town would also be 25% which means you only have 75% room between Banana and I. 75%/2 = 37.5%.

It doesn't matter how more or less suspicious of Banana or I you are, if there is a non-zero chance that Luna is scum that skews the numbers.

You want to know how little Lunatic would have to be suspected in order to make lynching from the list the safer bet at this point?

P_ls + (1 - P_ls)(0.5) = (1 - P_ls)/2

P_ls = 0

The only time it makes sense (mathematically) is when you're certain Luna is town. Yes I know many things are excluded including the possibility that Luna put his scum partner on the list, but this is the baseline. You have my reasoning, you want to pretend like it’s an excuse go ahead.

I don't believe that for a second.

Maybe you should expand your definition of "town behavior" to include these "throwers". You might lynch less townies.

Basically, a sophisticated way to tell me I am trash at the game.

there is meta's and behaviors that town can generally follow to win.

That you aren't able to see how a townie lying is harmful is a bit baffling. 

The reason there likely isn't three protective roles, is because it doesn't balance well. Mafia have three different roles that can fvck with their night kill? How is that fair?

it would have been justified based on the fact that she was town and lied

Town has plenty of reasons to lie.

Catching people in lies is how you scum hunt.

Your own role might have been more useful if you had withheld your claim until you had two or even three lists.

Very unlikely. Remember dreamer only receives results if I am not visited.

The chances I am not visited are astronomically low in general

Secondly after finding out that multiple scum can be on the results, multiple lists don't help as much as I initially thought they did. 

So your strategy in a game where your supposed to find liars is for everyone to just lie?

The general idea is to just lynch them, let them know what they did wrong, and eventually they fix the behavior, or they continue to lose games for their team.

Are you going to say who you visited or not?

If you’re not going to say, we are going to assume by default you are scum and lynch you.

Don’t really care at this point

(2) If we lynch Luna and he's scum, then banana and I are exonerated. Not only have scum been found but the chances of miss-lynching town are drastically reduced.

Not necessarily. You or Banana could still be scum.

Probability cannot account for qualitative factors, which is at least 75% what this game depends on.

And right now everyone susses you for a reason. 

I think you've trained each other to think about this game a certain way and you perceive any deviation from your meta as senseless and therefore scummy. 

You can't just call every error in judgement YOU make a mistake in someone else's behavior. The real question is whether a full town of people behaving like the other people would have won.

You mix a team of players from NFL 2020 and players from 1910 and they are going to throw a tantrum that somebody was just wildly throwing the ball down the field. That doesn't mean the quarterback pass is trash or that direct runs are trash.

In this case, I think a town of players like myself and That2User would have won.

Notice I haven't made the same mistake. I could have been saying "anyone who doesn't go with the math is scum" but I know that just because someone is town doesn't necessarily mean they play the game by the numbers.

How could I possibly know what was fair or not without knowing all the roles and the powers given to the mafia? We don't even know if there are three of them.

What if the game was a bit unfair?

Also, who said "protective" was identical to "messing with night kill"?

Did Cerulean specifically say his role "messed with night kills"? "protective" is a wider category than "mess with night kill"... and if a townie dies in either case that's at best a frustration to scum and not nearly as useful as something that actually prevents a kill like That2User's ability did. "White Mage"

She was not caught in a lie, don't rewrite history.

Apparently not the only way since That2User was not caught in a lie and your list has proven nobody a liar yet it has IMO the most significant impact on probabilities.

You're infinitely more likely to not be visited or killed if you don't tell the mafia you're a dreamer.

We're not supposed to find liars, we're trying to find scum.

Low likelihood, but regardless removing a scum buys more time.

Uh huh, those factors mean you threaten to lynch me but not whiteflame because he has reasons for not claiming that he's not giving.

and it's very convenient when you're right no matter what isn't it?

If I'm town I threw it. If I'm scum it's because your qualitative factors are just that damn good.

That’s not true at all. If every townie lies about their role, how are they any different from scum?

SOP is a thing in every game. And you divert from it on extremely rare occasions and when you’re certain it won’t have a downside.

In this case, I think a town of players like myself and That2User would have won.

No they wouldn’t. 

They are motivated to lynch scum and not town. They don't know who the other town are.

Whether they should lie about their role depends on their role and what has already been revealed.

It certainly has a downside when you lynch anyone who doesn't follow your protocol  and are absolutely certain you didn't make a mistake.

Of course the same would be true if you tried to enter a community where nobody was suspected for not claiming a role upon request and they called you a thrower for giving role and character without good reason.

So how are other townies supposed to determine what they are if scum by definition are liars and townies lie too?

You refusing to do that is throwing or you’re scum.

Townies don't always need to lie nor do scum.

In general there is apparently a role called "Cop", don't know if you do that role in this particular subculture.

You've made your opinion on that clear. Give me a reason, I will not be bullied into it by appeals to tradition or your willingness to throw the game in order to punish people who aren't following your unwritten manual.

Your reason is that I can guarantee that at least a couple townies want you to say who you visited. 

What will these hypothetical townies do with the claimed information?

Suppose, I give an answer, and then scum claim that they have a power that lets them see who visited who, then they claim that I am lying in order to push a miss lynch.

But in order for that to happen they would need to know which person I claimed so they can deny it.

If on the other hand they announce who they were watching, I would (if I am scum) know to not claim I visited that person.

Or maybe a townie can do the same and confirm I visited someone. What if I visited no one?

It's a stalemate, and there are clearly many more possibilities since there are like a million roles.

So if it's so important to claim roles, let the person who can verify or disprove my information come forward. Then I will consider whether it is worth the risk.

What did everyone do and why? (Lunatic)

Full claim please (Pie)

I targetted whiteflame NP1 and Pie NP2. I asked Whiteflame about the fruit because I just wanted to see if he would lie about it at all. Doesn't rule him out of POE but he was telling the truth

I got nothing from you. So either you were manipulated or you’re lying

You’re assuming that there’s 2 scum, when there are likely 3. (Pie)

I will announce when a day is a MYLO/LYLO day. (Casey, Day 1 OP)

The reason there likely isn't three protective roles, is because it doesn't balance well. Mafia have three different roles that can fvck with their night kill? How is that fair? (Lunatic)

the chance that both of us (on the list) are town would also be 25% which means you only have 75% room between Banana and I. 75%/2 = 37.5%.

I am Nikita Khrushchev. Because he negotiated for peace and safety, in some cases at the cost of effectiveness in other areas, I am the Jailkeeper. Each Night, I target someone- they are roleblocked, but protected from lethal actions.

I was on Whiteflame N1 and Vader N2.

I targeted Whiteflame Night 1 for two reasons. I thought that if he was Town and User was Scum, he might be a nightkill target, because he was against User but not really "leading the charge," so to speak. The second reason was because if WF was Scum, he might have carried the nightkill, since he was not really on anyone's radar. Either way, a lack of kill would have given me information.

My hot take is that we should not hammer this phase too early, although I do think ADOL is probably the correct vote.

Not true. We have 7 alive. If there were 3 scum, this would be LYLO, and that would have been announced:

I will announce when a day is a MYLO/LYLO day. (Casey, Day 1 OP)

Also I didn't get any results or messages last night to indicate whiteflame visited me, so I don't know what that's about.

Looks like I have some catching up to do then or WF was lying about him getting a fruit which would make him scum

Then either I was redirected or your fully lying because I never got a notification saying the action failed