Arrowverse Mafia - DP1

Author: Speedrace

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@oromagi
If the LOVERS survive NP1, I'm going to have a hard time reading them as TOWN.
I hate statements publicly made like this btw. This just gives mafia incentive to leave them alive, and if they are alive and you try to use this against them I am going to scum read you for this. How often do cops survive until late game lately? I mean we have had an influx of investigators claiming day phase 1 lately, and usually they survive for way longer than anyone expects.
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skittlez09 Intelligence_06 , drafterman , SupaDudz (3/5)
VTNL skittlez09, MisterChris (2/5)


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TOWN                         Claim                                        Role          DP1
3. oromagi                 .                                                    .                  #269
1. skittlez09               Savitar   [1#7]                          MILLER
4. SupaDudz             Martin Stein [1#117]             LOVER     #132
5. Intelligence_06   Ronnie Raymond [1#117]   LOVER
9. Ragnar                    .                                                    .                  #113
8. SirAnonymous    .                                                    .                  #157
6. Lunatic                   .                                                    .
7. MisterChris           .                                                      .                #257 #342
2. drafterman           .                                                      .                #165
SCUM

DP1 above refers to later or more detailed analysis posts. Sorry if I excluded any important ones, this was from a skimming to try to get a list available for quick review tomorrow based on the flip and the NK.
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@Lunatic
I hate statements publicly made like this btw
I call that type of thing anti-town, no matter how much it annoys some people. If town, it gives Mafia ideas, and helps them mislynch the speaker for trying to build a case ahead of time. If mafia, it tries to build town cred.

Either way, it's a public declaration of intellect, when a better thinker would more likely keep their mouth shut about it.
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I am caught up. I really don't want to get into an argument about lynching vs no lynching day phase 1. I get the logic behind pursuing a lynch, I just think it is kind of dumb to lynch skittlez or either of the two lovers at this point. I feel pretty confident that the skittlez lynch is basically a free mislynch, and obviously the lover lynch would hurt worse if they aren't lying, which I don't think they are. 

"SuGgEsT aN aLtErNaTiVe ThEn" 

The main reason I did not want to pressure anyone else is because if I do decide to pressure someone, get them to L-1, and they claim a power role, we end up just not lynching them anyway, and have ousted more power roles. Supa really fvcked us by claiming. In the off-chance one of the two of them are scum, I might lean towards it being supa by how panicked his outting was. We were pretty early on in the day phase, I really don't think intelligence was at a serious risk of being lynched that fast.

Regardless if I absolutely have to suggest a lynch target today, it would probably be Oro for that "If the LOVERS survive NP1, I'm going to have a hard time reading them as TOWN." statement. Then, I tend to latch on to things I find scummy and the more people defend their idea instead of admitting it was bad, the more I tend to scum read them. So I am interested to see how Oro reacts here first.

Regardless, no reason to rush the day phase in whatever we decide. 
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@Barney
I call that type of thing anti-town, no matter how much it annoys some people. If town, it gives Mafia ideas, and helps them mislynch the speaker for trying to build a case ahead of time. If mafia, it tries to build town cred.

Either way, it's a public declaration of intellect, when a better thinker would more likely keep their mouth shut about it.

Agreed. It's made oro my number 1 scum read honestly.
drafterman
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Cool. Let's lynch oro.

VTL Oromagi

Speedrace
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skittlez09 Intelligence_06, SupaDudz (2/5)
oromagi - drafterman (1/5)
VTNL skittlez09, MisterChris (2/5)

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@Lunatic
@drafterman
Lynching oro is an interesting idea. I don't like that statement either, but it does sound like something oro would say. On the other hand, it could be scum trying to pave the way for a mislynch of the lovers later. Seems thin to me, but I've got no better ideas. I'll look into it tonight.
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@Lunatic
I feel pretty confident that the skittlez lynch is basically a free mislynch, and obviously the lover lynch would hurt worse if they aren't lying, which I don't think they are. 

  • so we agree that lynching MILLER or LOVER doesn't make much sense.   You don't think either LOVER is lying, I think one of the two probably is but neither of has evidence.  I have explained my suspicions but  you have not explained your confidence.
Supa really fvcked us by claiming. In the off-chance one of the two of them are scum, I might lean towards it being supa by how panicked his outting was.
  • We agree that Supa's claim was profoundly anti-TOWN.  I have let this suspicious behavior inform my choices.  You have not explained why you still think Supa is likely TOWN in spite of his anti-TOWN move.
it would probably be Oro for that "If the LOVERS survive NP1, I'm going to have a hard time reading them as TOWN." statement.
  • I have explained that if Intel and Supa are merely bumbling town, then the likelihood of NK on them is extremely high.  Therefore, if they don't die my suspicion on them increases.  You say that's scummy but I just the call that the obvious consequence of claiming LOVER early.  
"SuGgEsT aN aLtErNaTiVe ThEn" 
  • You chastise yourself for not suggesting an alternative and then fail to suggest an alternative.  Great.


oromagi
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 If town, it gives Mafia ideas, and helps them mislynch the speaker for trying to build a case ahead of time. If mafia, it tries to build town cred.
Just stating the super-duper obvious.  I am quite confident that Mafia considered the advantages of whacking two TOWN at once in a 9 man game long before I said so.
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@oromagi
so we agree that lynching MILLER or LOVER doesn't make much sense.   You don't think either LOVER is lying, I think one of the two probably is but neither of has evidence.  I have explained my suspicions but  you have not explained your confidence.
I am not crazy confident that both are town, in fact I just said " In the off-chance one of the two of them are scum, I might lean towards it being supa by how panicked his outting was. We were pretty early on in the day phase, I really don't think intelligence was at a serious risk of being lynched that fast."

Supa ousting was anti-town, but I think the lover pair is more likely town. The fact that both have in their PM's that the other is town and were able to confirm that. That's straight up bastard modding if one of them is scum. Also you can call it a big brained scum move all you want, but its hella risky and won't end well for them. Especially because the logic you pushed of "if they are both alive later that is scummy". That's kind of obvious, but you being the one to point it out makes it look like they are being set up for a later mislynch. Maybe mafia would just straight up kill them instead.

We agree that Supa's claim was profoundly anti-TOWN.  I have let this suspicious behavior inform my choices.  You have not explained why you still think Supa is likely TOWN in spite of his anti-TOWN move.
Above.

I have explained that if Intel and Supa are merely bumbling town, then the likelihood of NK on them is extremely high.  Therefore, if they don't die my suspicion on them increases.  You say that's scummy but I just the call that the obvious consequence of claiming LOVER early.  
The fact that it's obvious is what makes it scummy. I was actually waiting for someone to say that because with all the lover skepticism going around, it seemed like scum would want to cash in on a potential mislynch later on.

You chastise yourself for not suggesting an alternative and then fail to suggest an alternative.  Great.
I am not chastising myself, I am mocking the argument that I must have an alternative lynch if I don't like the current options. My stance has for the most part been that No lynching is probably the wisest.
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@drafterman
Drafter, it seems you are straying away from the argument of lynching vs no lynch to "Let's end this sh1t as fast as possible" lol. We still have 2 and a half days left to decide a lynch, what's the rush? Your earlier analysis that people get more scared as the day phase goes on, do you honestly believe that? Are you going to try and rush a lynch in the first day of every day phase?


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@Lunatic
The fact that it's obvious is what makes it scummy.
Here we  strongly disagree.  I am of the opinion that TOWN should be able to state very, very obvious things without arousing accusations that we are giving shit away to SCUM.  SCUM is always smarter than TOWN.  TOWN has to operate in a more  open-handed fashion, making sure the rest of TOWN is on the same page.  
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@oromagi
Here we  strongly disagree.  I am of the opinion that TOWN should be able to state very, very obvious things without arousing accusations that we are giving shit away to SCUM.  SCUM is always smarter than TOWN.  TOWN has to operate in a more  open-handed fashion, making sure the rest of TOWN is on the same page.  
The thing here is you are basically telling the mafia what their optimal strategy with the night kill is. Now that this conversation is very loud and public are you going to change your mind in later day phases about this situation? If we are in day phase 2 or 3 and the lovers are still alive will you still want to mislynch them after we basically just told the mafia (assuming they are not it) that leaving them alive will look scummy?
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@Lunatic
We've had this argument dozens of times. Do you really think having it again is going to change anyone's position?

Having multiple RL days is for meta logistical purposes so every player has adequate chance to weigh in.

We've had that. Everyone has weighed in. So let's act. This isn't "rushing", it's playing the damn game.

There is literally nothing to be gained by waiting. Everyone has chimed in. Unless someone has a day phase roke and is going to produce results then all the information that we are going to get has already been gotten. From here on out people are just going to repeat themselves (like I already am) and talk in circles.

There is nothing to be gained by waiting until the very last second to decide except to clog up the thread with redundant posts and make people bored.

Like why have a VTNL option at all? Just let the day phase time out.

Lynch or get off the pot.
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All right, I've looked into the possibility that oromagi is scum. He has been consistently questioning the lovers. He also openly stated that he would suspect them if they don't get NK'ed. This could be scum trying to set up a mislynch. It could also be typical oromagi trying to get to the bottom of things. The case against him is honestly flimsy. I think he's probably town. However, I also think that there's a higher chance that he's scum than anyone else, though not by a lot. I could go along with an oro lynch in lieu of any better options.
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@Lunatic
Seriously, your decision to make best use of this DP is to rehash an argument we've had before (always resulting in impasse). You have nothing new to bring to the table, what the hell do you need 2.5 days for to do, exactly?
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@drafterman
There is literally nothing to be gained by waiting. Everyone has chimed in. Unless someone has a day phase roke and is going to produce results then all the information that we are going to get has already been gotten. From here on out people are just going to repeat themselves (like I already am) and talk in circles.

There is nothing to be gained by waiting until the very last second to decide except to clog up the thread with redundant posts and make people bored.
You're beginning to win me over. Unless someone claims, which would likely be bad, or someone gives off an obvious scum tell, which I doubt will happen, I doubt we'll get any more useful info to help us decide on this DP's lynch.
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@drafterman
We've had this argument dozens of times. Do you really think having it again is going to change anyone's position? Having multiple RL days is for meta logistical purposes so every player has adequate chance to weigh in. We've had that. Everyone has weighed in. So let's act. This isn't "rushing", it's playing the damn game.

So as long as everyone jumps in the game says "Hi and bye" we should just random lynch every day phase because everyones "weighed in"? The majority of the posts so far have been non constructive for reads. The longer the phase goes on the more content we have to analyze from each of the players. I didn't pursue my scum reads in your game til about half way through the day phase, and there was plenty more time for content to pop up as scum get more and more impatient.

There is literally nothing to be gained by waiting. Everyone has chimed in. Unless someone has a day phase roke and is going to produce results then all the information that we are going to get has already been gotten. From here on out people are just going to repeat themselves (like I already am) and talk in circles.

You don't have to be talking in circles. You could look into and analyze people's posts further as further conversation develops. Your forcing this "cycle" of insanity on yourself for basically no reason. I don't think the conversations are going in circles. 

There is nothing to be gained by waiting until the very last second to decide except to clog up the thread with redundant posts and make people bored.
They aren't inherently redudant because you decided they were, and you can't just assume that everyone shares your boredom. In fact I am quite the opposite of you in terms of where I find fun in this game. Quick day phases ending in random lynches sounds like the exact opposite of "fun" for me. I personally don't see what you get out of it.

Like why have a VTNL option at all? Just let the day phase time out. Lynch or get off the pot.
I mean, this is basically what I am suggesting. Not actually VTNL'ing. I've said I am open to a lynch if something scummy enough stands out to me, and I've also suggested using the time allotted. I've also explained why ousting more information is probably harmful at this point unless we are going to cave into a mass claim. Which I am not opposed to if we have to decide on a lynch today. Because Mafia already have 4 potential power roles to POE from tonight, which leaves them a 25% chance of killing the cop which already isn't ideal. 

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@drafterman
Seriously, your decision to make best use of this DP is to rehash an argument we've had before (always resulting in impasse). You have nothing new to bring to the table, what the hell do you need 2.5 days for to do, exactly?
I agree we fundamentally dis-agree about how the game should be played. I am not hoping the entire rest of the phase is just me and you discussing meta. I've already begun a new interaction with a scum read in oro though, so trying to say my idea is to just rehash this argument isn't actually my intention. I guess I still just don't understand what you get out of this game if your preference is always just to quickly vote and end things. Not even from a win/lose standpoint, but like, how is this even fun for you? lol
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@SirAnonymous
You're beginning to win me over. Unless someone claims, which would likely be bad, or someone gives off an obvious scum tell, which I doubt will happen, I doubt we'll get any more useful info to help us decide on this DP's lynch.
I'm pretty baffled that you of all people were convinced by the "let's rush the phase all the time" logic. 
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@Lunatic
So as long as everyone jumps in the game says "Hi and bye" we should just random lynch every day phase because everyones "weighed in"?
No, that isn't anywhere close to anything I've said.

The majority of the posts so far have been non constructive for reads.
Then get better at reading, I guess. No sense in wasting everyone else's time because you can't read. Besides, you're position is that lynches are mostly random anyway, right?

The longer the phase goes on the more content we have to analyze from each of the players. I didn't pursue my scum reads in your game til about half way through the day phase, and there was plenty more time for content to pop up as scum get more and more impatient.
No, the longer the phase goes on, the less interested people will get. People having arguments will tunnel on each other. People outside those arguments will get bored of reading them. Longer phases are just generally worse for everyone involved except maf.

You don't have to be talking in circles. You could look into and analyze people's posts further as further conversation develops. Your forcing this "cycle" of insanity on yourself for basically no reason. I don't think the conversations are going in circles. 
Right, which is why it is an opportune time to lynch, have a night phase and come back to the next day phase with fresh information. Why you would want to force the DP to be longer until it reaches the point where people are talking in circles is beyond me.

They aren't inherently redudant because you decided they were, and you can't just assume that everyone shares your boredom. In fact I am quite the opposite of you in terms of where I find fun in this game. Quick day phases ending in random lynches sounds like the exact opposite of "fun" for me. I personally don't see what you get out of it.
Ok, so then just say that. You want to stall and slow roll the game because it personally amuses you. At least be honest about your motivations.

I mean, this is basically what I am suggesting. Not actually VTNL'ing. I've said I am open to a lynch if something scummy enough stands out to me, and I've also suggested using the time allotted. I've also explained why ousting more information is probably harmful at this point unless we are going to cave into a mass claim. Which I am not opposed to if we have to decide on a lynch today. Because Mafia already have 4 potential power roles to POE from tonight, which leaves them a 25% chance of killing the cop which already isn't ideal. 
Lol, so you don't want more information to be ousted? E.g. "all the information that we are going to get has already been gotten"

So if you don't want any new information to come to light, what exactly do you expect to come from 2.5 of everyone's lives, other than your own self-enjoyment?

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@Lunatic
I'm pretty baffled that you of all people were convinced by the "let's rush the phase all the time" logic. 
I wasn't. I don't think we should rush the DP at all, and I don't think that's what drafter is trying to say. I'm just wondering whether we can get anything more info out of this DP. On the other hand, I suppose that longer DP's do seem to help people develop their reads. Honestly, both you and drafter make good points. I often find myself agreeing with whoever's post I'm reading.
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@Lunatic
I enjoy hunting scum and getting them lynched. Not virtually banging my head against a wall with people who want to waste days of everyone else's lives because it personally amuses them.

You realize that in most settings, this is a rather quick party game, right? You play live mafia. Do those games take literal days to play? No. The entire game is over in a few hours at most.

That's because it all happens in real-time.

And that's my point. The ONLY reason these forum games take multiple days is because of logistical reason involving player activity and input. It is a necessary deviation from the ideal. If we can get closer to that ideal with high activity, then all the better! Seize the opportunity!
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@Lunatic
The thing here is you are basically telling the mafia what their optimal strategy with the night kill is. Now that this conversation is very loud and public are you going to change your mind in later day phases about this situation? If we are in day phase 2 or 3 and the lovers are still alive will you still want to mislynch them after we basically just told the mafia (assuming they are not it) that leaving them alive will look scummy?
If LOVERS are both TOWN and my statement of the obvious does not change SCUM's mind to kill the LOVERs than my statement had no impact.
If LOVERS are both TOWN and my statement of the obvious changes SCUM's mind and LOVERs survive, then I have done TOWN a favor.
If LOVERs are not both TOWN (as I suspect) then I have increased the likelihood that they'll be monitored.

As Emerson said,  a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.  I never feel beholden to prior analysis in the face of good evidence to the contrary. 
If LOVERS survive, we can hope some role verifies them .  If LOVERS die, we can hope some role has evidence. Every alternative is WiFoM at this point, I just want TOWN to go forward  with a wary eye on the LOVERS claim.  You don't, apparently, for reasons you fail to explain.  Why do you believe the LOVERS when we agree that their claim is anti-TOWN?
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@oromagi
If LOVERS are both TOWN and my statement of the obvious changes SCUM's mind and LOVERs survive, then I have done TOWN a favor.
Not exactly. In that case, town would be more likely to mislynch the lovers. The problem I have with your statement is that you're essentially telling scum how they can influence your thought process. Yes, it's an obvious thing to say; however, it helps scum because they are free to go after potential power roles while you mislynch the lovers. If you say that if X happens I'll think Y, then you give the mafia the chance to manipulate you.
drafterman
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Vtl skittlez
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Sigh. It's just gonna be skittlez's day, isn't it? Oh well. If he does get lynched, at least he's just a miller. 
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@drafterman
So as long as everyone jumps in the game says "Hi and bye" we should just random lynch every day phase because everyones "weighed in"?
No, that isn't anywhere close to anything I've said.

I mean the entire focus of the day phase has been about the miller claim and the lovers. We are narrowing all our focus into the claims, and not looking at the behavior of anyone, because of the need to end things so fast lol.

The majority of the posts so far have been non constructive for reads.
Then get better at reading, I guess. No sense in wasting everyone else's time because you can't read. Besides, you're position is that lynches are mostly random anyway, right?
I think the entire focus of the game shouldn't be analyzing whether a miller and lovers are in the game lol.

No, the longer the phase goes on, the less interested people will get. People having arguments will tunnel on each other. People outside those arguments will get bored of reading them. Longer phases are just generally worse for everyone involved except maf.
I mean if your goal is to cater to lazy people, then yes. I say fvck the lazy @ssholes lol. We are slowly phasing out of that with players like SA, and misterchris, but I think the people who get bored of reading things are part of the larger problem with mafia, and eventually we will either phase them out, or they will win and all games will be lazy crap shoots with no effort involved. Here's hoping that won't be the case.

Right, which is why it is an opportune time to lynch, have a night phase and come back to the next day phase with fresh information. Why you would want to force the DP to be longer until it reaches the point where people are talking in circles is beyond me.
The day phase is towns most important tool for finding scum. The longer a phase goes on, the more information comes out. The more likely scum will say something that they may later contradict themselves with. Scum don't want long day phases, remember, they are lying and constantly have to keep track of their lies. Town have nothing to lie about, and are much less likely to slip like that. Information is gold, why settle for a bar when you can have a treasure chest of it?

Ok, so then just say that. You want to stall and slow roll the game because it personally amuses you. At least be honest about your motivations.
I can spin this the same way, you want to fast rush the game because you find taking the time to look into posts and analyze them as being boring. "aT lEaSt Be HoNeSt AbOuT uR mOtIvEs"

Lol, so you don't want more information to be ousted? E.g. "all the information that we are going to get has already been gotten"
There's more information that can be found outside of character/role claiming lol.

So if you don't want any new information to come to light, what exactly do you expect to come from 2.5 of everyone's lives, other than your own self-enjoyment?
Behavioral analysis, looking into motives of why someone would push for certain lynches, contradictions, etc. What was the point of your reaction test earlier if not to get behavioral information?