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@JoeBob
Let’s get this DP moving.vtl austinWhy did you try to start a wagon on me, without explanation, with less than hour left in the DP?
because it was better than a no lynch and everyone else was townier. Not a great reason, but we did kill an Innocent Child two games ago for the same reasoning.
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just gonna wait for results. kinda confused since everyone in thread feels towny rn lol
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I am confused
Luna's role was literally negative utility smh
what does Wylted mean by a different dimension?
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VTL Joebob
This probably isn't happening but it's the best choice at the moment. everyone else feels towny.
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I was gonna vote Casey but that research on Barney's phrasing of "I win with town" was really towny ngl.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
From a mathematical point of view, then no lynching would be optimal if we assume that the odds of hitting scum are purely dictated by random chance. But a D1 lynch is the SINGLE GREATEST source of information that town has to work off of D2. Regardless of who we hit, analyzing how the dead player was treated by the living, who was eager to go for the wagon and who wasn't, and why that wagon gained traction over the others, all of that gives a strong basis for analysis in future days.
There's also the fact that there might be a third-party - Wylted has been known to do that and a 7-2-1 split is very viable, in which case it actually is mathematically optimal to lynch today.
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It's optimal to lynch here. I suspect that scum were one of the people being wagoned before the VTNL. backreading now
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Wylted's balancing is worrying which makes me think scum might have heavy power but we'll worry about that later.
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Also my role is confirmable, highly suggestive of town (at least it would be broken in the hands of scum), and cannot be roleblocked, if I don't confirm by MYLO then feel free to lynch me.
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my god for the first time in my life I'm townreading Savant
Luna kinda towny because I had the same thought on Casey
I still wanna pressure Pie because his attitude to policy lynching is weird af.
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@ILikePie5
It's not a gambit. His role fits perfectly with mine.If you’re what I think you are, it’s a scummy role and frankly SOP
I am not what you think I am.
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I suspect scum is pretty happy with the current threadstate. I think we ought to pressure Pie - his push on Barney makes him scummier than random chanceOdd that you push me instead of the 3 other people. One of whom didn’t even believe he was scum
You were the only one who kept pushing for a claim.
and he's been unusually quiet.I’ve posted the most or second most
And it's been pushing low-hanging fruit like Barney. You then tried to vote whiteflame who has objectively not been any scummier than other players off some weak reasoning of "he got caught last time off his claim". Then you go back to saying we can policy lynch Barney. Where's the genuine scumhunting?
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@Savant
He is locktown never rescind for me. You can consider this a breadcrumb.I assume saying Barney is confirmed town is one of Austin's weird gambits. Honestly though. I think a reaction test like this is more likely to harm town than help it.
It's not a gambit. His role fits perfectly with mine.
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Slow moving day and sadly I am too busy to speed it up significantly.
I 100% believe Barney's claim. He is locktown never rescind for me. You can consider this a breadcrumb.
I suspect scum is pretty happy with the current threadstate. I think we ought to pressure Pie - his push on Barney makes him scummier than random chance and he's been unusually quiet.
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VTL Pie
for being an opportunistic buckaroo. Self-voting is disproportionately coming from town and you know this.
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There's at least one scum on that flash Barney wagon for sure. Wayyy too opportunistic
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hold up. dont lynch barney. "You win with town" is my wincon
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Mine is time travel. Bit busy today but will have plenty of time in the night
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3P + Survivor is a bit unbalanced. Technically it reduces town down to two mislynches if the survivor is willing to take a dirty win in MYLO. We did have a lot of other mech favoring us tho.
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Ok whatever. On to the next one. Town deserved this and I'm mildly annoyed. I had Wylted as a heavy scumlean, Barney as a slight scumlean, I could have caught them. Maybe not Owen but we still had mech that could have got him.
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y'all are bloody idiots.
I had a confirmable role.
holy hell
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@Savant
What happened to this:
Noticed that JoeBob's PM doesn't use curly quotes, whereas mine and Mharman's do. I suspect mafia messaged Luna the fake PM, while the others were written in Google Docs.Unvote
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@Cerulean
The only time I've seen a fake flip is when scum flips as a random town role. It's usually not too game-breaking because the townie can just CC that role.
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@Cerulean
I agree - I designed quite a few setups myself, and one of the guiding principles is that if scum plays a perfect game, then they shouldn't be screwed over by things outside of their control. Cop checks are fine, because you can dodge them by being townie. A role that guarantees, almost a 100%, that Earth doesn't make it to LYLO, is pretty bastard.
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@Savant
It seems like death tunneling would be a violation of rules. I don't see how you could death tunnel while simultaneously avoiding a vote. I also have to say if he claimed he role dp2 and claimed that is why he wouldn't vote, I would have been pretty skeptical anyway.
The subtle tactics I'm pretty sure is just part of the implied justification, not an actual restriction.
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@Earth
Is Beowulf a villian? It's a little odd, and Joebob's PM looks a little different.
This is a good point. The flipped PM and my own have a quote, character bio, implied justification, role name, and a wincon, in that order. Joebob's has his role name at the beginning.
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If Earth flips town then I'm turboyeeting one of Savant/Wylted btw.
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@Savant
He can simply say that he isn't allowed to vote for Earth. Nothing in the rules against that.
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Wait everything makes sense when I think about it from the perspective of Mafia choosing Joebob for a fake flip.
They have to choose a lowposter (otherwise it's obvious that they wouldn't have actually been pushing their target). They then pick someone from the lowposter's iso that looks like a vague accusation, and then boom, you have a ready-made mislynch.
If Joebob's role is real I'm blaming Luna btw. I don't believe it is tho.
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I'm skeptical. There's nothing in Joebob's role that stops him from just full deathtunneling Earth. Saying that "Earth is incredibly scummy and I know it" is fully allowed. I don't think he would be that subtle about it.
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It should be fairly easy to figure out whether Joebob's role is actually real by reading through his posts in DP1.
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I win with the town.
This is kinda hilarious ngl, but I do agree we shouldn't rush this
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@Mharman
TL OwenI knew he was noob scum.
Dude, he obviously is claiming that because he wants the lynch. He's noob scum and has been following Pie the whole way through. Look at his posts. Everythinghe's been posting reeks of blend-in behavior.
Holy shit how can you believe that. In his mind he's clearly thinking he gets the lynch and can defend himself tomorrow. It's a shortsighted noob play.
His teammate is probably Pie and if there's a TP it's someone else.
You made that play on you own. Want to talk about my read on you?
You clearly treated Owen like he was confirmed scum after he claimed Bulletproof, as shown by these quotes. Why?
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@Mharman
That's not an answer. A slight scumread is nowhere near the level of confidence you suddenly had in him being scum. This confidence doesn't make sense if it wasn't actually a real CC.
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@Mharman
Why did you 100% believe that Owen was scum?
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Actually Mharman is outed. If he fakeclaimed he knows that Owen's claim is real. No reason to be 100% confident that Owen is scum when he knows that it's not an actual CC. His progression doesn't match his actions.
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@Mharman
Why tf would you fakeclaim Bulletproof? Where is the town motivation?
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@Cerulean
Jester is pretty much standardized bastard role here. Luna is a pretty responsible host and he would not put that role. He has put Lyncher in the past tho.
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Welp fast moving DP
Odds always favor the CCer so I'm leaning towards Mharman. backreading rn
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Yeah, Pie is probably town because I've seen him pull this before, but I'm not going to be joining this wagon.
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@ILikePie5
Speak for yourself. My read on Mharman is strong.
I was referring to making Wylted claim at the time, if it wasn't clear.
Getting Wylted’s claim is going to help scum sort out stronger PRs from weaker ones? The only way it would help scum is if Wylted is town, but if Mharman is town, he cannot possibly be this certain that Wylted is town and claiming will help scum figure out who has PRs and not. Even Mharman only said Wylted was slight town, so this confidence does not make much sense.
On average, Wylted is more likely to be town than scum, which means that him claiming will benefit scum in most gamestates. You're reading too much into the way that Mharman phrased things.
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@ILikePie5
I know I’m town, but I don’t think Mharman is town. That post about Wylted claiming would help reveal Town PRs and help scum doesnt make sense from a townie’s perspective. I townie would say he doesn’t want someone to claim because he town reads them. The focus on PRs is what scum do. Even revealing characters doesn’t do much cause they’re all villains and you could probably justify anything for them ie there’s no way for scum to know what Don Corleone could be vs Billy Mitchell
I still don't really understand the basis for the Mharman wagon here. At this point in the game, with no strong reads, we ought to assume that making a random person claim is negative expected value for town, as they're more likely to be a townie forced to reveal their role than a scum locked into a claim. Can you explain what part of Mharman's response is alignment indicative?
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I don't really have any scumreads at the moment which is kinda unusual. I feel like either the lowposters or one of the experienced players is scum but that's just a gut feeling on the gamestate.
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