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@ILikePie5
You always ask new players about the extent of their past experience with forum mafia. Why didn't you do that with Cerulean?
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@Barney
Vito, from the book or the movies? And did you preference for the title Don, or was that fed back by the host?
The movies. I sent in "Don Corleone".
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@ILikePie5
I'm not following your case. He initially didn't want Wylted to claim, then changed his mind when he thought that Wylted claiming would provide more expected value to town (in the form of Wylted being incompetent if he's scum). What's the contradiction there?
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@Cerulean
My initial reaction would be to give you a townread for giving that up with no pressure, since it "looks" so bad, but I'm wary of a "refuge in audacity" bluff. You, or someone else, can correct me if this is wrong, but from the few posts I've seen from you so far, you strike me as someone who might try to pull that sort of strategy off.
Can you explain why you think I would have the kind of playstyle to try this?
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Since it's a slow news day, I'll claim my character to invite some discussion: Don Corleone.
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@Cerulean
Apologies for the slow pace of the game. The past few games' D1s have trended towards around 1k posts, so I'm a bit surprised. Third parties are rare here in general, but this particular host has been known to put them in his games. I would guess this game is 8-2-1, although I wouldn't be surprised at a 9-2 or 7-2-1-1 split as well.
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@Cerulean
Games here are typically pretty chill in terms of volume. The first few phases will generally run right up to the deadline, so it's not uncommon for a last minute flash wagon to form, but it's usually on a consensus suspect. There is a heavy focus on mech. Also, welcome!
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Ultimately I think lying as town has its benefits but you need to be prepared for the consequences of things go south
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Also, casey did great as a new host, well balanced and modded
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So it does work on my phone
If I had a chance I probably wouldn't gambit like that again, sorry for throwing lol
Well done to the scum team btw
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@whiteflame
@Austin I still have him in my PoE, but the first would be a weird scum slip since we don't even know if Luna was visited.
That's the scumslip. He has an informed perspective. Town players wouldn't know if Luna was visited or not, so he would have no reason to think that Mharman may have visited Luna. I'm betting that he's scum who used some action on Luna (Luna was an obvious PR by the way he refused to claim) and let that slip.
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@Savant
Correct results would not confirm you, because scum knows who is and isn't. And by the time we confirmed them or didn't it will likely be too late.
Explain.
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@Savant
WyIted had already voted for you.
Yep, but it looked like you just wanted an excuse to awkwardly back off your back off.
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@Mharman
Also, my theory is Austin-Whiteflame now
I'm curious to hear why whiteflame doesn't just hammer you in this world lol.
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Austin, plz unvote. Earth and WF's actions make a lot of sense if they are a scum team and want to kill the doctor.
Ugh, you're probably right. If the team is WF+Earth, voting Austin at least doesn't help them. And if they're both defensive of Austin, he could easily be partners with one of them.VTL Austin
Savant's progression is incredibly fake. He considers an Earth + WF team, drops it AS SOON AS HE SEES THAT WYLTED CAN HELP LYNCH ME, then decides to go for me EVEN KNOWING that in a WF + Earth world, me and Mharman are practically chained mislynches. No town player considers a world in which neither of the main suspects are scum, and then votes one of them anyway.
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If the team is WF+Earth, voting Austin at least doesn't help them.
Perspective slip. How tf does it not help them? This only makes sense if he's thinking from the lens of "WF + Earth town."
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@whiteflame
Also, if Mharman was scum, there's a >50% chance he would have visited me or JoeBob or Luna.
This is just a scumslip. He has no way of knowing that Mharman might have visited Luna.
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One thing I thought was kind of suspicious is that Austin admitted to lying after Luna said he thought Austin was town and lying. It's like a tactic that cops use when they want a suspect to admit to part of a crime. "Admit you did [x] and you won't get in trouble." Luna is the cop, Austin is the suspect.
Non-sequitur - I gave the town motivations behind my actions.
Keep in mind that Mharman's role can theoretically be confirmed. Austin will never be confirmed.
This reasoning is also fake and indicates you have an informed perspective. Fypov, if either of us are town, then we can each be confirmed, either by a successful save or correct results.
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@Savant
I don't really get this. If Austin had a fake claim and knew Maya wasn't in the game, he has no choice but to push back because otherwise he gets lynched. Also, a dreamer role doesn't really fit the theme even if it fits that character. I'm also not sure Casey would put both Mia and Maya in the game because it's confusing, but who knows.
This is pretty much just making up reasons. Dreamer fits Maya perfectly thematically. And Casey wouldn't put Mia and Maya in the same game? This reasoning is so bad it's just outing.
WF relies on a lot of instinct here, which seems like it would be easy for him to lie about if he was scum. I wouldn't expect a player as calculated as whiteflame to base this much of his decision on a gut feeling, especially when Austin has made mistakes before as scum.
Your entire case on me is based on instinct over how Casey designed the setup.
This is an odd way of looking at it, because it seems mostly like a chicken-egg issue. Mharman's doctor role seems convenient because it fits Luna's results. Maybe it fits those results because Mharman is in fact a doctor. Given that scum targeted JB, they could have targeted anyone, and Mharman knew he had a power role. Waiting to claim with a power role is just a smart move. Mharman's actions make sense from his perspective. Also, if Mharman was scum, there's a >50% chance he would have visited me or JoeBob or Luna.
It's convenient because it's also the exact same result as he would get with a lawyer, which, thematically speaking, is just a shoe-in for this game. He also refused to claim until after the fact, had no reason to protect himself, and that's not how probability works.
Also, we have no other protective role claims. Maybe that's convenient, but it's not something Mharman can control. Phoenix is almost certainly in the game.
This reasoning is pretty clearly contrived. This also feels like a scumslip because that's evidence in Mharman's favor, not against. And if Phoenix is almost certainly in the game, then Maya also is considering we have Mia Fey and Pearl Fey.
Overall, WF is focusing more on behavior than I would like, when the mechanics of the situation come pretty close to confirming Mharman.
Mharman is in no way mechanically confirmed.
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@Lunatic
Savant + whiteflame probably, maybe Savant + Wylted
don't rly see it tho
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@Lunatic
I have that as a tinfoil theory. If that's the case then town is irreparably screwed tbh
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@Lunatic
Mharman's actions are dripping with scum agenda. I've been hard townsiding all game. Lynch that scumbag.
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Lol at Mharman's mental gymnastics. Apparently I decided to immediately fakeclaim Dreamer, draw attention to myself D1, resolve several slots as town, retract to avoid a mislynch even though I easily could have chained two if I was scum, then fake having no results N1 even though I was widely townread and could easily have gotten another mislynch off fake results, all as part of an scum gambit to... put myself in POE and locktown several players.
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Also, if we're talking character analysis here, Maya/Mia/Pearl are all Fey members and I fail to see a themesplit that would only include Maya but not the others.
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@Mharman
Faking confidence is not as effective as you think it is.
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Good evening buckaroos. Doing well, just tired.
A miscellaneous list of points I'm liveposting:
1. Savant and Mharman have strong partner equity. They've been voting and agreeing in unison all day phase.
2. As scum, the status quo (i.e. the alleged POE of me/whiteflame/Earth) benefits them, which is why Savant is being uncharacteristically quiet and Mharman is doing everything he can to maintain that status quo.
3. Mharman's entire case is built on setup speculation. This isn't a genuine way of scumhunting, because unless there's something obviously egregious (e.g. a straight CC), it all comes down to a guess on what the mod intended.
4. I don't care if I get hammered today if you get Mharman and Savant afterward. They're not accepting this, and continually trying to deflect to the alleged POE.
5. Mharman's logic regarding Savant makes no sense. He says that because Savant told the truth in a setup where scum can easily fakeclaim, it makes him town. This ignores that Savant's role is confirmable, which on this site's meta gets you townread for ?? reasons.
6. Mharman's claim of Doc is the exact same that Savant did in Mahabharata. Notice how he's pushing the exact "I'm un-CC'd so I HAVE to be town" angle.
7. A redirector makes no sense in this setup. Almost all the other roles are relatively simple or thematic, redirector is a clear outlier in terms of complexity.
8. Also makes no sense for scum to use their redirector on Savant. It makes far more sense for Savant to simply be lying.
9. Justice/Dreamer make perfect sense, it's not overpowered at all if scum has a lawyer/framer - e.g. if Justice gets "same alignment" on two players, one of whom flips town and the other is lawyered, then town is fucking screwed. I would bet 10 bucks that scum have a lawyer/framer btw.
10. Mharman had no good reason for protecting himself n1 when he was in poe, it's a retroactive justification for probably lawyering himself.
11. Savant/Mharman RVS voted each other. Savant goes ballistic over votes on him (you've seen it before), and he also RVS voted me when we were scum together.
12. Despite allegedly "sussing" Savant, Mharman did NOTHING to push Savant D1.
13. Savant's progression is implausible. He said I was a townread, then voted me based on alleged mechanical reasons that make no sense.
14. Speaking of that, Mharman's case on me makes zero sense as I mentioned earlier
15. Also Savant demonstrated either a bad-faith push or a failure of basic probability when he said the chances I choose three town aligned players d1 is less than 50% (which has nothing to do with the chance of my alignment)
16. Savant and Mharman have zero genuine interactions. Read the day.
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hi everyone i feel bad cuz y'all are waiting for me but i rly rly will be active tonight, on phone rn
thoughts: i think savant makes the most sense as scum bc i rly can't believe they redirect the magistrate. absolute waste of a powerful role
still believe mharman is scum for bad faith push on me. his mech makes no sense, he's been coasting off his doc claim which could easily be fake. setup spec is meaningless for a new mod btw, pie also helped moozer with his game and it was unbalanced as fuck
also, having two alignment determining roles (justice/dreamer) makes PERFECT SENSE if scum have a lawyer/framer which can be used to manipulate both
wylted/luna locktown, i like earth and whiteflame but cant lock them town, savant/mharman poe
earth is unpaired for not going with their push, whiteflame kinda?
yea all my solves just end up going with mharman/savant. neither of them are cleared mechanically in ANY WAY btw, so don't buy their args that they're out of the poe.
again ill be active tonight so dont hammer before then
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Mharman is scum, partner is likely Savant but keep an open mind. I'll post more tomorrow and any attempt to hammer me before then should be taken as a scum claim.
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Mharman is scum, partner is likely Savant but keep an open mind. I'll post more tomorrow and any attempt to hammer me before then should be taken as a scum claim.
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There's also no good reason for Mharman to self-protect. He was in POE, unlikely to be killed, and there were several people who had hinted at having a useful role, such as Lunatic.
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Savant fakeclaimed doc in the Mahabharata game using one of Pie's questions. It's very possible the same thing is happening here.
Magistrate is not a guaranteed town role, role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmation
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@WyIted
just realized it's Savant and Mharman. Savant magistrated whiteflame to make him look sus, Mharman then pretended to realize that this meant scum "must" have a redirector, which pushes suspicion onto me.
They've also been pushing in parallel, Savant's progression makes very little sense from last phase, and conveniently they're both pushing for a POE that doesn't include them.
Game is easy ggs
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Yeah Mharman's push makes no sense lol. His mechanical reasons are based on speculation over what the setup is (notice that he needs to assume that Casey wouldn't put similar roles, that a Doctor wouldn't be in a game with a Dreamer, and that scum HAVE to have a ninja for some reason), and he has no real behavioral reasons.
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@Savant
Also what are the chances the three people Austin accuses day 1 all happen to be town? Less than 50% according to my calculations.
Someone doesn't understand a priori odds I see. If I cop someone guilty n1, that's 2/8 chance. Therefore there's a 25% chance I'm telling the truth, and a 75% chance I'm scum. good one.
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Mharman's push on me is transparent bullshit. He's an experienced enough player that he knows his setup spec is objectively wrong. He's modded games, I've modded games, none of his mechanical arguments make sense.
If you give me tomorrow where I'll be active, I'll explain more. If you hammer me for shit reasons before then, just hammer Mharman with prejudice next DP.
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@Mharman
1. Joebob’s role is basically the same thing as what Austin claimed, except it works with doctors and other irrelevant things2. Doctor doesn’t work with Dreamer and I’m a dumbass for forgetting about how dreamers can be disturbed earlier3. His behavior still sucks now that I think about it. He literally posted something like “look at me! I have this role and the matching character is the deuteragonist! No way I could be scum!”, then got busted for lying, then invented a fake gambit to cover his ass and get town cred because town was wondering if he was gambiting anyway4. So there’s obviously a ninja. And a redirector. That doesn’t leave anyone left who could disturb Austin’s sleep. We know the redirector used their abilities, so the Ninja probably Nk’d JoeBob.
1. Semi-CCs are common especially with newbie mods and setup spec is a shit reason to push a lynch
2. How does Doctor/Dreamer interaction make Dreamer less likely? Your argument is that town's power is limited, I fail to see how that makes me scum.
3. No scum motivation behind it. I generated activity, reads, resolved Wylted/Luna heavily through uninformedness, and clarified what I was doing before any serious attempt at a lynch happened
4. We don't know that scum has a ninja. They could easily have had some other rolecop/roleblock/framer/LITERALLY ANY VISITING ROLE to snipe me.
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at chess tourney rn
no results, probs got visited by someone
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Earth knows the series well. I don't think he would fakeclaim Godot.
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