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cuz that would fit perfectly with the theme of this game lol
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Also, a word of advice: if there is a cop or something out there, I would 100% expect that mafia has framers or lawyers or smth, so be careful and don't pick an obvious investigation target.
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@whiteflame
Yep.
I weighed the risks and benefits. Considering that Casey said it was a rolemad game, it seemed likely that town players would visit me anyway, if only by accident. In contrast, now town players know to avoid me, basically forcing mafia to waste their night actions or whatever on me.
I don't think I risked a mislynch?
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@Lunatic
You're right on that regard, was going to correct that actually. Earth is a townlean but the unvote on Savant is pretty much the only reason for it.
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@Savant
This lie had a clear benefit (resolving active players as likely town) and close to zero risk (notice that you were never in danger of getting launched). There is no scum motivation behind it. Rly not that hard. You are town tho so that's nice.
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Anyway we still have a few hours. No need to rush this. I'd prefer to remain alive so I can force mafia to waste their night actions on me, but ymmw. Just take a look at my post so you can understand the town motivation behind my actions.
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@Savant
I've never seen town Austin lie like this, but you've played with him more than I have.
I lie a lot as town. If you want, I can link a few of my offsite games where I faked a guilty on someone and they confessed to scum, or where I put out a fake read in order to reaction test. Again, it's the only way to fight against mafia's informational advantage (other than just figuring out if they're lying, but good scum players tend to make that hard)
I also fakeclaimed Super Saint in Mahabharata as well.
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So initially, my thing was meant to be a softclaim. However, I have a gutread on Savant being scum so I decided to pressure him to see how he reacted. Mafia have an inherent informational advantage because they can lie all they want and are informed of who is town, while town is unsure of who is scum and usually have to tell the truth.
By lying as town, this informational advantage is negated, putting mafia on equal footing where they have to adapt to a situation in which their reactions can potentially be recognized as scummy.
Savant, Wylted, and Lunatic are the most active posters here, and tend to be pretty strong town players, which is why I chose those three to resolve - because either I would find them as scum d1 (a huge benefit to town) or find several as town d1 (also a benefit to town). The risk of this was a misdirection of town's efforts, but considering that most other players are fairly inactive or tend to be less polarized as different alignments, I felt that resolving this group of three players was worth it.
Wylted is basically locktown for how he responded to my character claim - he would need to have thought of the entire gambit, ask Casey about a character and role, weirdly counterclaim in a way that could have been seen as scummy if it went any differently, and then convincingly retract.
Luna is also close to to locktown for a simple reason - his reaction was uninformed. If he was legitimately a scum in the group of three, he would have no reason to believe that I was lying. His recognition that I was likely pulling a town gambit makes a lot more sense from a town perspective.
That leaves Savant, who I do believe was pretty scummy early on, but I think his reaction to pressure and willingness to put himself in the POE with Luna early on trends very towny.
This also allows us to analyze whiteflame and Mharman's responses, later on, to find whether they were informed of whether there really was a scum in the group of three.
Leaving a solid POE of Earth/Joebob/Owen. Earth towntold by unvoting Savant when he had no reason to do so and Savant was looking very sketchy, Joe towntold by making that weird "how do I scum hunt" post. Leaving Owen + likely whiteflame/Mharman.
Anyway, I know it's tempting to just lynch me based on "lynch all liars", but you need to consider my motivations. What motivation do I have to draw all this attention to myself, almost getting myself to L - 1, just to claim that three people are likely town, and make a significantly narrowed POE? It makes a lot more sense as a gambit to try and force a high pressure situation to resolve active posters.
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Fullclaim: dreamer
Yeah that's it. Sorry. I never had results - HOWEVER, I believe that my actions helped town significantly and I will explain why in a moment.
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would you believe me if I said it was a softclaim/soulread into reaction test gone wrong, and I townread everyone in thread rn and think Owen is scum by POE
unvote
vtl owen'
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@Savant
I don't see why drawing attention to yourself early on is indicative of towncred. It's in scum's interest to push town players.
Sure, but no offense, you're almost the resident D1 emigrant around here. Why would I draw attention to myself like this instead of just normally pushing you or blending in if I was scum? It is, like, kinda concerning you're not really considering things from a perspective where I could be town.
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Just disengaging for a bit: I have strong townreads on Luna, Wylted, Joebob, Mharman, moderate on Earth/whiteflame (depends on flips), and null on Owen. I feel the former four have towntold a lot.
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@Savant
WIFOM. Maybe you are TP lyncher or want us to mislynch 2-3 people and consider the risk worth it.
Misuse of the term wifom is like one of the my biggest pet peeves in mafia lol. Wifom is meant to be a way to suggest that nothing is absolute, not to replace critical thinking about probabilities. With this sort of logic, lynching a scum should give zero towncred because it could just be wifom.
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@Savant
Austin is willing to 1f1 someone he's not 100% sure is scum. Sounds more like a TP lyncher move than a town move. Maybe the not 100% thing is because he's scum and wants plausible deniability later.
I think you're much more likely to be scum than random chance suggests, especially since everyone else has significantly towntold. How exactly does me 1v1ing you make me suspicious, especially as you've expressed a strong desire to start it?
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@Savant
Again, worst-case scenarios don't matter without probabilities. What motivation do I have to draw attention to myself like this early on?
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Listing possibilities without probabilities, is completely nonsensical. What point are you trying to make here?
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@Savant
I'm not 100% sure you're scum, but I am willing to 1v1 you here.
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@Savant
That... doesn't really make any sense. It feels like you're shading non-alignment indicative things and trying to find the easiest way out of this poe.
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@Lunatic
I am not gonna ask you to full claim. But can you at least confirm that the part of your results with me and wylted in it being bullsh1t to some degree? Because your reads and actions seem to indicate that’s it’s really only ever been savant
To some extent yes. If you know how dreamer works, there's a compelling reason to claim it.
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I'm not going to fullclaim unless I'm at L - 1. I think Savant's push on the TP thing reads more performative than anything. It's also easy to look towny when you're legitimately hunting for a third party faction so I don't rly give him much credit in that regard.
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@Savant
Avoiding a mislynch today gives town a small but significant advantage. Make scum kill me instead of killing me for them. Mislynching me is going to hurt you as much as it hurts me.
Could you explain what you meant by this? Seems very confusingly phrased.
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I should probably meta check Savant because I think his scum game and town game is pretty recognizable.
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Avoiding a mislynch today gives town a small but significant advantage. Make scum kill me instead of killing me for them. Mislynching me is going to hurt you as much as it hurts me.Think of it this way: If you get a scum player, you are near confirmed. If you get us to lynch a town player, it makes it slightly more likely that you are lying about your role.
I am ngl these kinda just look like perspective slips.
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@Lunatic
I'm townreading you because your perspective seems uninformed. All I can say for now.
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@Savant
Can you magistrate yourself? If so, why aren't you pushing harder to just confirm yourself next day phase?
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@Lunatic
I don't want your claim. Give it if you're at L - 1 obviously, but I'm not gonna take part in that.
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@Earth
Hm, have to think it over then. I was more talking about how Savant says that Athena's ability to detect emotions is key to getting him proven innocent...?
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@Earth
unvote
Does the justification seem canonically correct? I don't think I've seen that episode yet.
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@Savant
If we're likely going to lynch you, what motivation does town have to pursue a fullclaim from Luna today as opposed to after you flip?
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@Earth
Very very close to it. It's odd that Savant mentioned a "she" when the Shakespeare paraphrase seems to be referring to the Simon Blackquill case.
Actually this is just a blatant scumslip, good catch. Yeet Savant with prejudice.
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@Earth
Do you have any experience in AA?
I've watched a lot of playthroughs, so reasonably so.
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According to Casey, my character is a defense attorney. This is because my friend confessed to a crime I knew she didn't commit. This is why I can prevent people from being lynched.
This makes zero sense ngl.
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@WyIted
This is a simple yes or no. Do you have one definite scum between these 3?
At least one.
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@Savant
My role is confirmable, and if you can connect it to my character and then figure out the theme split, maybe I can be confirmed as town. That's about it.
Can you explain what you mean by this?
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@Savant
Why? From your POV, it's basically Luna or me. Even if you just flip a coin, those are betrter odds than you'll get anywhere else. Plus if we lynch one of us, no one else has to reveal their role to scum.
Because it's probably one of you, and it's going to self-resolve if you confirm your role.
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@Savant
Justification? Don't see any reason not to give it at this point.
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Yeah I think I'm willing to angle away from those three (Savant/Luna/Wylted) this DP, although I will be suspicious if Savant doesn't confirm himself very soon. Earth and Joebob have been lowposting, I've generally gotten town pings from whiteflame and Mharman so idk.
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@whiteflame
I get where you're coming from. I'd really like to know the details of his role as well, but given that he's currently my strongest townread (see: the whole CC debacle, including his view that you were likely town despite his CC, as well as the character herself being almost a gimme for this game), I can only surmise that there's some reason Austin is keeping that info to himself. He's not playing it the way I would, as I feel that it's net negative on utility given the possibility of a mislynch, but I'm also not going to push him to out his role at this point.
Not going to full claim the specifics of my role unless I'm at L -1. Without going into too much details, I'll either eat an NK or force scum to spend their resources on me, so you'll have to trust that for now.
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I've been lazy af in this game but I will actually make a Savant case today because I think his progression and reads this game have felt, like, really forced.
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Anyway, pretty sure that we should be going in Luna and Savant today, unless I see anything else blatantly scummy.
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