AustinL0926

Sure that makes sense if your town, but scum would want to hold off on that claim until they’re sure there is some sort of investigative role.

At this point, I’m willing to VTL him. If there’s no where else to get the final vote, I understand switching, but I hope we don’t go there.

Suddenly, I have been on you all DP

What page was it where you were dropping the crumbs about your miller role?

That’s a good point actually. For me, that definitely trumps Earth inactivity, but I’m still trying to decide for myself if what he did was genuine or not.

As I see it, a town Austin who is making this kind of play would know that straight claiming Miller at this point was a near guaranteed lynch. It’s practically a given. So assuming that he had suddenly realized he couldn’t shake the probability that he would be targeted by the Cop, the move that makes the most sense is to double down: claim a confirmable role and hope that he becomes the target of the NK. That’s the whole point of not SOP claiming that he laid out, and he’d know that being copped guilty effectively ends him, so he’d just be hoping to be killed first. More importantly, town Austin would very well understand why the wagon would shift onto him this strongly as a result of his claim. It looks bad. He knows it.

Scum Austin doesn’t have that luxury. He could pretend he was biding out the NK, but he also couldn’t risk hard claiming a confirmable role next DP if pushed, since it could easily be CC’d. He has to claim Miller now and hope that the behavioral townreads will carry him because, just like town Austin, he knows he’s dead if he is copped guilty. He needs some cover for that now because he’ll have none next DP. And scum Austin would also have every reason to sus the growing wagon on him in an effort to buck it instead of acknowledging the obvious reason it’s forming. It’s supremely weird that Austin has now several times acknowledged his mistake, but susses the impetus and continued growing of the wagon on him.

So, yeah, we’ve got roughly an hour and 20 minutes before the DP ends. I want to hear how these choices should yield a townread because I do not see it. I can understand a town Austin panicking and even outing his role this late, but actively sussing another player for being on a now obvious wagon just doesn’t make sense to me as town. If he wasn’t going to be lynched this DP, he almost certainly would be in the next one.

If we don't get a lynch, Casey dies

Why are you trying to lynch someone who claims to be confirmable?

I think it is funny I am claiming Commuter because I do remember saying something along the lines of scum fakeclaiming commuter a lot.

VTL Austin

Sorry to be blunt like this, but we're running out of time and Luna hasn't shown up. Austin is close to a policy lynch at this point, and at least we avoid lynching a town role that can help us later.

Okay, I don't know if this is the right move or not, and I'm not happy about it either way, but time is running out and I have to make my decision.

VTL Austin

Instead of challenging people's perception of you, why don't you hunt scum? If you are not scum, the wah out of this is to show stronger evidence that somebody else is scum. Everyone posted and I promise, somebody tucked up somewhere and it was overlooked

Another thing is that a miller claim is more advantageous for scum after they know there's a cop, whereas a miller might claim right away because they already know there's a cop. So claiming after my claim is a bit suspect. It's also odd you didn't breadcrumb anything about knowing a cop is probably in the game.

If you thought I was going to cop you, then this is your best play at the moment whether you are miller or scum. I believe you are telling the truth that you think I may cop you.

But statistically, scum are more common than millers.

Odds shifted from 7/9 chance of you being town to 3/4 chance of you being scum if you are telling the truth about your game.

I would buy it. I would because I have said numerous times before miller's should not claim DP1, but if they do it should be immediate and if they find themselves on the block DP1, they typically should fake claim.

I have also said, after DP1, if copped they should be honest and we then have to evaluate the claim and treat it like any other claim.

I have been miller and I can tell you the cop has never investigated me as a  miller so it's not a huge risk, and cops usually die early in the game anyway

I think the new claim could recontextualize what you said earlier. I'm still giving some weight to my earlier intuitions even if other good players disagreed with them. Scum players tend to give multiple tells, and different players will notice different ones. I was mostly town reading you because Luna said you were acting super townie, idk if he will still feel that way. And if I gave weight to whiteflame's defense of you earlier, then I also have to give weight to his wanting to lynch you now.

I can call this move a lot of things. “Calculated” is not one of them. You’re guaranteed to be our lynch unless someone else proves clearly sus just because your role is unconfirmable and negative utility, but you’ve made it worse by selecting a uniquely bad time to give it.

Does it matter? If he cops you, then explain yourself or just say he was misdirected. 

It doesn't look good for you tbh. It just looks like the scum team doesn't want to target Austin tonight for whatever reason so you claimed a miller role

I want to hear from Luna before I proceed, but given my earlier intuitions and whiteflame's scum read, I think Austin will probably be the best lynch target today.

All that aside, dude, while that "breadcrumbing" post certainly indicates your thoughts on claiming POE roles, it's not at all indicative of your being SOP yourself or of your being the Miller. I get none of that. So, I'll give you a bit of time to explain yourself, but you just jumped to the top of my scum pile for this.

I'm not sure how to feel about that. It's a bit surprising that he didn't claim that earlier, but maybe not that surprising considering how multiple people wanted to lynch him. Still, I have to wonder why he waited until now.

Somehow missed this earlier. Although I can understand why you did this, I advise you not to do it in the future. Claiming a SOP role will always lead to measurable harm for town because it narrows the POE for scum to fire in.

You have to weigh whether the benefit town gets from knowing the SOP is greater than this. I don't really think that's the case with this particular role, since if town is really so divided that we can't agree to a lynch after an entire day of discussion, then it's better to have a negative utility role eliminated for POE.

I think it is funny I am claiming Commuter because I do remember saying something along the lines of scum fakeclaiming commuter a lot.

Invincible was my game not pies

but if we assume either joebob or earth is guilty but at least one of them is innocent

Because scum already know about two existing games. Your math is also wrong, but that's going to take too long to explain.