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AustinL0926

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@Savant
Unvote to avoid potential derphammers pls. We have plenty of time left in the DP and we owe it to Earth to let him say something.
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@Savant
Sure, but I still find it unlikely for several reasons:

-The chance of getting a "hit" is fairly low, especially since neither Joe or Earth were one of the last claimers
-It doesn't bring any additional towncred (this is the main one) while locking them in to a potentially flawed subset of claims
-Mahabharata and Invincible, Pie's most recent games, are two of the missing ones, which is exactly what I would expect


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@Savant
JoeBob can just roleblock the most suspicious-seeming town member if he is scum.
That's what I figured, but we have to make this clear so he doesn't "decide" that you're the "most suspicious-seeming town member" if he's scum.
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Actually, just realized something. Look at Joebob and Earth's games:



-First, let's agree it's pretty unlikely for either of them to be fakeclaiming. Even if we assume it's possible, the risk-reward ratio doesn't make sense. In the best case scenario, they simply get a different game with no increase in towncred. In the worst case, they instantly get lynched DP1. Especially in the chaos of everyone pressuring for game claims early, I find it highly unlikely that one of them chose to take this risk.

-Mafia roles on Joe's game: Actress, Watcher, Ninja
-Mafia roles on Earth's game: Roleblocker, JOAT (Rolecop/Strongman/Janitor), Tracker

Joe's game doesn't have a roleblocker, so he can't be covering for his own role. It's possible that if he was scum, his buddy would be covering for him instead, but this seems unlikely, since in case of any Joe flip then that would implicate the few games that have a scum roleblocker.


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@Lunatic
I think I’d like to hear more from Austin as well. I know I was towing him earlier and he said he was busy but after the first day of arguing with savant he seems like he’s trying to let the attention shift a bit which I don’t like. I’m hoping he will be a bit more active today.
I had some family stuff yesterday, promise I'll be active today.
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*confirmable
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I think I'd prefer Earth today because Joe's role is at least unconfirmable. If Joe uses his role in a way that is blatantly anti-town (e.g. roleblocking Savant), then we powerlynch him next DP.
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Pretty busy with life today sorry, will catch up later. Yeah I'm also a little bit uncomfortable with how quiet it's been about Moozer but we don't rly have any other suspects.
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Also, I'm not sure why we're not getting an Earth claim. We got one from Joebob even though he hasn't been inherently scummier than Earth, don't see the logic in arbitrarily drawing a dividing line.
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@Savant
I'd be fine with that, but Austin doesn't want to lynch Moozer at the moment and I'd rather not be fighting another battle with him. Despite Moozer's low activity, I can't think of anyone else I'd feel safer lynching at the moment.
Just to be clear, Moozer would be my top lynch target overall for today. I just don't want to lynch him before he has a chance to defend himself.

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Claims

Savant- US Senate - Odd night Cop
Casey- US House of Representative - Scapegoat 
Austin- Governor
JoeBob- 13 Reasons Why - Drunk [roleblocker]
Moozer- Narcos


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@Savant
Considering Moozer isn't around (and probably won't be for today), I think it'd be a dick move to lynch an inactive before they can defend themself (cough cough last game). I'm fine with getting a claim from Earth.
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@Savant
I'm inclined to townread JoeBob rn, but how does everyone else feel?
Mechanically speaking, it's a pretty strong claim.

Behaviorally speaking, I think Joebob is a bit better than null. I feel like he might be excited to finally have a cool role he can use and is lurking a bit because of it. That being said, it's not too alignment indicative.
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Alright, pretty strong claim from Joebob. Semi-confirmable, since Pie tells people if their actions fail (Pie is weird for this but it works out nicely here).
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Casey's reads post leans pretty town for me.
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@Savant
I unvoted you last night dude
Yes, which is why I'm dropping it for now.
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@WyIted
Do you have any game-advancing content to provide now that you realized your push on me isn't working?
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@JoeBob
also earth is better than me, and because of that he makes it last DP1 more often, and since he is better, he is more dangerous then me also I often get lynched DP1 for little to no reason, such as “puncuation”.
I remember the game lol, I was modding that one. Thought it was a dumb way to get sussed but your role didn't help.

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@whiteflame
You're good, I just can't read apparently. Thought the only condition to activate was VTNL. I suppose that does make it a slightly safer claim.
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@whiteflame
Casey can always push things in a different direction to prevent that, even by their vote alone. It comes off as somewhat safe, but I don't have a solid read on whether they would be likely to claim this as scum.
Not really sure what you mean by this. If the majority of people voted for a VTNL, how could Casey stop that from happening?
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Ftr, I still don't like Savant's behavior but I don't rly see the point of pushing it further (at least on DP1) if he agrees to drop his ridiculous push.

Wylted is being weird (not out of meta unfortunately) but his interaction with Savant vibes as town - I feel that if he was scum he would just hide behind Savant's tunnel on me and let Savant take the blame for a DP1 gone wrong. Pushing back on Savant's claim when he has no reason to doesn't seem to have any scum motivation behind it that I can think of.

Luna and whiteflame are both townleans for me but unfortunately I haven't seen a lot of genuine interactions from them due to pretty much half the DP being focused on Savant getting salty over a single vote. Casey also gets a townlean for roleclaim and not being too opportunistic. That leaves Moozer (opportunistic) and the nulls (possibly lurking).

Lean scum on Moozer, possibly one scum in either [Earth, Joebob] or [Savant, Wylted].


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@Earth
@JoeBob
VTL Earth

Both of you should make a case on why the other should claim first. At the very least, it'll force some contribution to the DP.
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I'd also like to remind everyone not to forget about Moozer, if he doesn't come back at least once before the end of the DP to explain himself then that's kinda on him.
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Just caught up. Agree with most of Luna's points, obviously. I'm fine with a Earth or Joebob claim. Unfortunately, it's not rly out of meta for either of them to be lurky, but might as well try and get something.
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@Savant
All right, Austin is definitely trying to expand POE, which is exactly what I expected he would do if he was scum. So yeah, I'm going to keep pushing him, and the more he tries to shift attention to Moozer the more confident I will be about this.
Savant, snap out of it for a second. What do you expect me to do? You've already ignored any and all attempts for me to defend myself. So forgive me for attempting to genuinely scumhunt, which you somehow view as a scumtell now.
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@whiteflame
Calling it a night at this point. I've been sussing Moozer for a while, and frankly, so has Austin. As for seeking a mislynch on you, if that's his goal, it's not going to work. Doesn't seem like that's what he's doing, more like he's just trying to make sense of his interactions with you and considering different ways of viewing your behavior. It's a weird way for scum to behave, though it's also not particularly helpful.
I mean, I fully recognize that I could have handled some of the earlier arguments better, but put yourself in my place for a second.

You put them at two votes to see how they react after their earlier suspicious behavior. They proceed to claim for no reason, blame you for making them claim, then use said claim as an excuse to declare themselves a "99.9% confirmed townie", then proceed to tunnel you for the rest of the DP using transparently bad logic and confirmation bias and ignoring any and all other attempts to hunt scum.

So yes, I'm not really sure how to feel about Savant.
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@JoeBob
Probably just his work schedule.
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I think this DP comes down to Moozer honestly. His progression feels really weird, like it's not entirely natural, but unfortunately he's gone rn. I want to get his reads on Savant and Wylted to evaluate the likelihood of a scum-scum pairing in the group of three.
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@Savant
Wait, you're actually buying Wylted's objection to my cop claim as a possibility? Wylted I understand because he's weird, but it doesn't make any sense for you to see me as a possible scum. This just justifies my decision to claim early even more, because claiming cop as scum would automatically be a huge risk, and no scum would claim cop after only two votes. This just seems like an attempt by Austin to expand the POE pool.
Possibility =/= probability. If you were behaving normally, I would have you as an automatic townread in lieu of POE'd suspects. But the way you've been pushing on me all day feels like an attempt to abuse your "confirmed" townie status to try and push a mislynch through with poor logic. You've basically dropped every single one of my early arguments, leaving your sole contention as "lynch austin and figure out the rest later." Tell me, if you were me, how the hell would you respond to that?
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Pretty sure there's at least one scum between [Moozer, Savant, Wylted], but unlikely to be two, now that I think about it. Just based on interactions imo.
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@WyIted
"was sussing Savant earlier for this but idk rly. It seems a bit contrived but I also think town is more likely to just put their thoughts out there whether good or bad."
that was before he tried to coast on his claim
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I claimed after two votes, not one. Mostly because I thought I would eventually have to at least say I was confirmable or reveal something about my role (which has gotten me attacked the first night multiple times) and because I knew Austin is very aggressive and would likely pursue a lynch once his mind was made up like this. hClaiming early gets me a ton of town cred and lets me direct the lynch effort,  which has already revealed a lot about where Austin, Moozer, and wf stand.
So you claimed early even though you didn't have to (and wouldn't have had to fyi) just to lynch me? Seriously?
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@Savant
You said you are 90% sure Austin is scum, so while it's not definite, if you are town, it's pretty likely that Austin is scum. I find it unlikely that you would be tunneling if you are this sure. I also find it unlikely that both of you are tunneling each other.
This logic doesn't make any sense. Just because a person arbitrarily asserts a probability doesn't mean that probability is correct. Also, why do you think it's unlikely we're tunneling each other, if you're seemingly uninformed of my and Wylted's alignments?


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@WyIted
I have mixed feelings on the buddying so did not list it but I think it indicates that if austin is scum than lunatic is town.

So Austin is definitely scum. Let's review the evidence.


scum tell 1

Tow behaves differently when on their head is on the chopping block than scum. One scum tactic when their head is on the line is not to defend their evidence but gaslight their accuser by questioning their logic.  A more natural response to stupid logic is not really that aggressive or defensive. Here are gaslighting posts below;

post 227 " > I also voted you because WyIted also suspects you for other reasons, which in my view makes the case against you stronger. 

We should triple the US government's spending. Not really gonna specify my reasons, but in my view it makes the legislator's cases stronger"

Now this is poor logic by Savant, but the logic is strawmanned, not necessarily an issue, but the issue is gas lighting them and attacking their logic, instead of proclaiming your innocence or scum hunting
I'm not sure what I'm supposed to say there. If someone attacks me using transparently flawed logic (which even you admit), then I'm going to point out the silliness of their logic. It's not my job to prove my innocence to a nonexistent evidence-based accusation.


post 222 "Savant has literal zero basis for scumreading me and his recent posts prove it"

Who gives a shit. we all know that this is a bad way to defend yourself, but the issue is questioning the logic behind it. Most of us would say it is bad logic and move on or just say something like "fuck off I am innocent", and not elaborate. He isn't defending himself he is attacking.
So how is that any different than what I'm doing? I'm not trying to lynch Savant today (as anti-town as he's being), I'm engaging with his arguments and pointing out why they're wrong.


post 206 questioning logic again not sum hunting or defending himself.

"Right, so the wagon on me is: 

 

-Savant (who's mad that I pointed out objectively scummy behavior) 

-Wylted (for reasons unknown) 

-Moozer (sheeping the above two)"

post 199 follows the same logic of attacking the logic of somebody who is on your wagon and gaslighting them.
Wylted, you don't know what gaslighting means. Gaslighting involves an inherently false element. Where is the false element in my above statements?


Scum read reason 2

Austin is lying and we should lynch all liars

post 132 about Savant

"I scumread him because it looked like he was pretty much coasting on his "first to claim" thing which means close to nothing in terms of towncred imo yet apparently he thought it makes him unlynchable this DP? yea not rly sure where that comes from.  "

He scum reads savant, this is after placing his vote, so no reason to lie here.

post 137, he also doubles down that he had a scum read on savant

"lready said I scumread you because I felt you were coasting on your early claim in a way that didn't feel genuine. I asked you why because I wanted to see whether your reaction was coming from an informed ("oh no I've been caught but he doesn't know that") or uninformed ("I'm being pushed for no reason") perspective."

post 133, he claims to never scum read him and just be reaction testing. So he either lied about the mere reaction test or lied about scum reading him.

"Savant, why would you claim though? You only had two votes and mine was literally just a reaction test."
Again, it feels like you're confirmationally biasing yourself into attributing motivations to my posts that aren't there. In general, there are three types of votes: lynch votes (meant to kill), pressure votes (meant to force someone to claim or explain a read), or reaction votes (meant to see how someone responds to being sussed). My vote fell into the latter category, as quite a few DP1 votes do. Me being suspicious of Savant and wanting to see how he reacts to a single vote on him (a vast overreaction btw) doesn't meant I want to force a claim or lynch him.

Scum read 3

Austin is trying to look like he is scum hunting by merely just making random comments about theory. We all go off on theory here and there but this feels like austin is trying to mimick being active.

post 158 "I actually disagree a bit with this imo - I think posting reads as you catch up is one of the best ways to let other players read you. Scum have the burden of too much information, which can sometimes show in an unnatural read progression."

This isn't scum hunting and it is fluff he does it more.

post 111, another excuse to talk theory instead of scum hunt to simulate activity

"Somehow missed this earlier. Although I can understand why you did this, I advise you not to do it in the future. Claiming a SOP role will always lead to measurable harm for town because it narrows the POE for scum to fire in. 

 

You have to weigh whether the benefit town gets from knowing the SOP is greater than this. I don't really think that's the case with this particular role, since if town is really so divided that we can't agree to a lynch after an entire day of discussion, then it's better to have a negative utility role eliminated for POE."

That's not alignment indicative. I've been legitimately scumhunting and engaging in discussion. These posts neither prove my towniness nor damage it - i.e. if you took these posts away I don't think my standing would change.

scum read 4

Scum have this tendency to make double statements that follow the pattern of this guy is scum but also he is town.

Post 149 "For the record, I think Savant is lean town for his role, but I feel he's vastly overreacting to a single vote on him and it makes me uncomfortable."

he leans town and scum. lets see how often this comes up. post 108, savant is also both town and suspicious allowing austin an out for a mislynch

"was sussing Savant earlier for this but idk rly. It seems a bit contrived but I also think town is more likely to just put their thoughts out there whether good or bad."

I mechanically townread Savant but I find his logic worryingly scummy. You even said so yourself. Again, not sure what's the "gotcha" here.
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Ok first of all Savant, you suck for choosing Invincible as the one to show to Wylted. My most recent game was Mahabharata, where I caught you as scum DP1. That's why you deliberately skipped that game and instead chose an older one of mine. You knew exactly what you were doing there.
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I'll respond to Wylted's post later, but suffice to say I think most of the things he points out are colored either by accidental or deliberate confirmation bias, more likely the latter.
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My DP1 hero solve is [Wylted, Moozer] as scum team, with Moozer having the PR and a good fakeclaim and Wylted taking the lead in buddying Savant and trying to mislynch me.

(it's probably not 100% right but it'd be hilarious if it was)
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@Savant
I'm not mad you voted me, I just think your reasoning for doing so was not very sound. You accused me of coasting on being the first claim, but it was early in the day phase with limited information.
Except you were coasting on your claim. At best, early claiming makes you less likely to have fakeclaimed. It has nothing to do with alignment. Yet you apparently decided that this gave you carte blanche to not be considered as a lynch on DP1. That's the definition of coasting.

I also voted you because WyIted also suspects you for other reasons, which in my view makes the case against you stronger.
We should triple the US government's spending. Not really gonna specify my reasons, but in my view it makes the legislator's cases stronger.

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@WyIted
Yeah deali.g with some stuff for a minute but working on it. I find it odd though that you don't find his response to pressure as suspicious. 
Ok it's just annoying af when I'm getting pushed for no reason at all other than someone is mad at me for voting them. Like what am I supposed to do, avoid voting anyone in the game? Savant has literal zero basis for scumreading me and his recent posts prove it, where apparently he's upset that I haven't confirmed myself on D1.
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@Savant

I'm referring to him attacking Moozer and the people voting against him rather than explaining why he himself is likely town. And of course he gives a reasonable-sounding reason for that, that's how scum Austin would OMGUS.
See above. What do you expect me to do, pull out an Innocent Child role pm?
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@Savant
This is part of why I scum read you. You immediately went to attacking people who voted against you instead of explaining why you are likely town. At this point, I want at least a role claim.
You win games by attacking scum, not defending yourself. Any arguments I make regarding my own alignment are inherently biased by the fact that I know I'm town. The only thing I can do to prove my towniness is to hunt for scum, but you're not making that easy at all. You're probably town, I'm town, and this is getting annoying and allowing scum to hide in the shadows.


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Right, so the wagon on me is:

-Savant (who's mad that I pointed out objectively scummy behavior)
-Wylted (for reasons unknown)
-Moozer (sheeping the above two)

Not really sure what I'm supposed to say. I townread Savant mechanically, Wylted is a bit of a toss-up, and Moozer, while his absence is probably not alignment indicative, I do feel his progression is somewhat artificial.
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@WyIted
That's an interesting perspective although I've never personally felt that way as scum imo.
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@WyIted
Is there any reason why Austin would respect you more than anyone else here? 

Is he intimidated by you for some reason that you can sense?

Like maybe he perceives you as socially dominant or he thinks of you as a God of mafia and that is why he would be really worried about you?
I can sort of answer this on behalf of Luna. Luna represented our site in the MafiaUniverse champs, I was following along the whole time and was pretty impressed. I talked about it over PMs with him.
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Reads (I really don't have any strong ones rn):

Lean town:
-Savant (only mechanically)

Slight town:
-Casey
-whiteflame
-Wylted

Null:
-Joebob
-Earth
-Luna

Slight scum:
-Moozer
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I agree with this. I unvoted because I was going to investigate Austin and didn't want scum framing him. But if you're onboard with this, it increases my suspicions. I wouldn't be OMGUSing him if I didn't think he was a very good player. He's almost never been wrong with accusations before in my experience, so yeah, if it looks like he was breadcrumbing an accusation against me, and I'm not scum, that looks suspicious.
Genuinely don't understand why Savant is pushing me other than a OMGUS. The only reason he's gave is that from his pov, I'm made an incorrect read. Idk how that makes me scum and it's a bit annoying that everyone is blindly going along with the final conclusion just because Savant is likely town without looking at the poor basis behind it.
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Honestly I just feel a bit disconcerted right now by the number of people jumping around looking for a wagon and not giving their own thoughts. I feel like I don't have a ton of good reads.
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@Moozer325
Honestly, I kinda would prefer a VTNL here, but that's not going to happen. I'll just vote with the majority, which seems to be leaning toward Austin for now.
I mean, the people accusing me can't all be scum, but I still don't really get why I'm being sussed. I've already explained my reasons for pushing on Savant. Just because he's likely town for his role doesn't mean he's right on his reads.
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@Moozer325
Little bit confused here. Didn't you mention me as your top townread just a few posts ago? Anyway, I'm fine with being lynched today over a VTNL, but I'd like an explanation when you come back.
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@whiteflame
As a general rule, it’s best to post reads after you catch up. Saying that you’d effectively consider Savant to be your top scumread after he claimed Cop stands out, especially since it came a while after he claimed.
I actually disagree a bit with this imo - I think posting reads as you catch up is one of the best ways to let other players read you. Scum have the burden of too much information, which can sometimes show in an unnatural read progression.
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