Total posts: 2,865
Posted in:
Yeah, rereading this DP, Vader is really all over the place.
Consider:
-Suddenly sussing whiteflame solely based on the fact he's still alive, as well as the fact that GP was TP (which I don't think whiteflame denied).
-Sussing Barney based on being on both wagons - never mind that Vader was also on the Joebob wagon and GP was a consensus wagon.
-Sussing Wylted based on being on both wagons - see above, this is getting a bit ridiculous.
-Sussing me based on my lack of aggressiveness - I'm not really sure what he means by that, but I'll point out that BK and I are the only living players who didn't vote for Joebob.
It seems like he's doing anything he can in order to direct attention off of himself. The thing I'm most concerned about is the lack of actual behavioral analysis. Surface-level evidence like votecount analysis and "you're still alive" don't seem like a town player genuinely interested in catching out scum - instead, it seems like scumreads for the sake of it.
Created:
Posted in:
I'm going through Vader's posts one by one, and all I can say is that it feels like he's trying anything and everything to divert attention from himself. I'll make a post-by-post analysis later.
Created:
Posted in:
Ok I'm still catching up from yesterday and today, but I feel that whiteflame and BK have to both be town - the only alternative is that they're both scum, which I find unlikely.
That leaves POE of two scum between Wylted, Barney, and Vader. Assuming Wylted didn't get lawyered or something, that seems to simply put it at Barney and Vader.
Sorry if I'm behind the times, but I'm just trying to make sure I have everything correct here.
Created:
Posted in:
I am Annabeth Chase. I am the Ascetic (immune to non-lethal night actions). In my quest to recover the Athena Parthenos and bring peace between the two camps, I am forced to complete it alone, without any help from my friends (since it can only be found by a demigod who proves their own worth); I also successfully survive many trials and attacks along the way using my wits and knowledge.
Created:
Posted in:
I'm honestly not sure if I'll get time to check the DP again today, depending on when my game starts and how long I have between rounds. With that being said, I'll violate my own voting meta and VTL Vader in case I don't have a chance to do so later. I've already given my reasons on why I've felt he's the most scummy.
Created:
Posted in:
I would never vote off such an enlightened, upstanding citizen like Wylted. (send help pls)
Created:
Posted in:
Forget what I said about not catching up, I probably went through this DP like three or four times while posting the above wall of text. Going through whiteflame, BK, and Wylted now.
Created:
Posted in:
Yeah, I forgot to catch up and I still have several rounds tomorrow. Sorry about that. That being said, I'll give my reads anyway.
Null:
Earth
-Theme/mechanics:
-Softclaimed one of the five
-I think it's either his real character, or if not, then a mod-provided fakeclaim - simply due to the risk of a CC.
-Behavior:
-Inactive as hell. Sorry.
-Lynching Grey feels really lazy.
-Hasn't given much in the way of original analysis.
Conclusion: Lurkers gonna lurk.
Barney
-Theme/mechanics:
-Pretty blatant softclaim. Likely one character, outside shot of another.
-I'm going to hold him to it
-I think it's either his real character, or if not, then a mod-provided fakeclaim - simply due to the risk of a CC.
-Behavior:
-Not gonna lie, I don't really have much.
-A lot of what he's posting seems fluffy, to say the least. Dashboards are nice but don't take much effort. Occasional check-ins, random comments, voting BK for fun and profit, etc.
-On the other hand, it could just be laziness. Pressuring BK to claim (right after posting a dashboard with his claim, no less!) is certainly not the behavior of someone trying to lie low.
Conclusion: Not much reads on behavior, but I think laziness is more likely than lurking.
Slight scum:
-Vader
-Theme/mechanics:
-Rachel Dare is a large outlier for me in terms of theme. Frankly, she's a forgettable character. I went through the first book of HoO, she barely plays a part beyond advancing the plot slightly.
-It seems possibly indicative of a themesplit - Rachel is the only claimed character who is not a demigod.
-x1 cop is fishy to say the least. Not only are Emissary and Dreamer also investigative roles, but they are also the same type of investigative role - alignment-determining ones.
-No one else has claimed an x-shot role. In Pie's last four games, there were at least three x-shot roles per game. However, of these x-shot roles, every single one had to be so in order for balancing (e.g. x1 Governor). I don't see how nerfing a cop into a ground by giving it 1-shot makes sense.
-Behavior:
-I just looked back at the Joebob lynch and he was online and actively posting at the time of the lynch, so I consider him part of the flashwagon, even though he was voting Joebob beforehand.
-He voted Joebob based mainly on mechanics, although tbf whiteflame did the same
-I'm mostly concerned about claiming x1 cop. It's hard to imagine a world where a town player genuinely claims this thinking it benefits town.
-I don't buy the "rust" excuse, it's not that hard to consider the potential consequences of claiming.
-On the other hand, a scum player benefits from claiming this way in several ways:
-Gets towncred from claiming early
-Gets a plausible reason for not being NK'd
-Buddying up whiteflame (I'm not saying that it's unreasonable to investigate whiteflame, but immediately outing an innocent result is weird)
-After that, seemed to attack me and BK without a clear reason.
-I don't think putting pressure is inherently scummy, but using logical inconsistencies to do so feels suspicious.
-I also don't like how instead of defending his reads, he immediately questioned whiteflame (shifting the BOP, as it were)
Conclusion: Thematic outlier in terms of character. Heavy mechanical outlier. Slight FOS based on DP1. Cop claim is very weird. Targeting me and BK feels like a way to push a mislynch, aggravated by his refusal to directly defend his reads.
And also the GP Problem:
-Honestly, right now, GP is probably more of an asset to us rather than scum, considering that two more mislynches will likely end the game.
-Thus, he's highly motivated to help lynch at least one scum in the next few DPs.
-Although I'm not above settling for GP as a compromise lynch, I would prefer for us to avoid wasting time discussing it unless we're absolutely sure that we can't get another lynch done in time. Lynching GP is lynching someone who is not trying to actively kill us.
Created:
Posted in:
Idk maybe that's not such a good idea. Probably I'm not really in the condition to be posting rn. Ill catch up later.
Created:
Posted in:
I am kinda exhausted and unable to think clearly rn, just finished a chess game almost 4 hours long. I skimmed through the thread, looks like whiteflame and Vader going at it. Going to reread that later.
Anyway, I had a thought regarding the mass softclaim:
-It'd be nice to know whether someone has a "common" role or not. Obviously this is kinda subjective, but I noticed that when Pie puts some exotic roles, he goes all in with them, e.g. in the Governors Mafia where only 2 out of the 11 roles could be considered "standard".
-For the sake of disclosure, I would say that my role is on the uncommon side, but not that much so.
Created:
Posted in:
List of reads, not including myself and GP. I'll explain these later when I get time.
Lean town:
whiteflame
Slight town:
Best.Korea
Wylted
Null:
Earth
Barney
Slight scum:
Vader
Created:
Posted in:
Anyway I have anywhere between 20-30 minutes before next round's pairings come out so I'll look over the DP a bit closer and give my reads
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
Regardless, I am going to pursue character soft claims from both Earth and Austin at this point (to my knowledge, everyone else has either claimed or soft claimed). For all I know, Austin already has soft claimed, in which case let me know which post you used to do that. If you haven’t soft claimed and cant think of one, just tell me if you’re one of the five characters I mentioned at the bottom of this post. We need that information at this point.
That's reasonable enough.
I usually don't softclaim because I think it draws unnecessary attention while not giving town much info. Also still traumatized by that one time I softclaimed a PR in the Governors Mafia and got immediately murdered.
Anyway, my character is one of those five. My role is also not an x-shot ability, nor investigative, if that helps with mechanical analysis.
Created:
Posted in:
Like I don't feel it's entirely a coincidence that Vader pushed Joebob, then now Best.Korea and me, as scumreads. It feels like he's targeting new players who can't defend themselves as well.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Vader
Thanks for chiming in, but I'm kinda confused over some logical inconsistencies - especially regarding your reads and justification for claiming
Austin is moving more into my scum pile. He's blatently not listening to the reasoning behind why people are suspicious of voting BK and suspicion. There are valid reason into supporting him that I cleared out. I won't reiterate them because that's a waste of time at this current point.
Like... I've read this five times and I still don't really understand what you're trying to say here. Are you saying I'm solely sus for not sussing BK? I already clarified that my townread of BK is based on thematic analysis as well as my understanding of his (somewhat erratic) behavior from previous games. That doesn't mean I'm clearing BK, but it means that I'm not going to blindly wagon on a lynch on him.
Tbh I was thinking about claiming a cop as a whole and drawing the NK to me, which hindsight has it would've been the optimal play, but I'd rather be purely honest with the town at this point in the game.
You mentioned that it's better to be honest, but we really lose nothing if you lie for a DP - anyone reasonably experienced mafia player would understand that you were just trying to bait the NK. I know that you're an experienced player, I have a hard time believing that you weren't aware of this.
I think that Austin's whole push on the justification of reeks scummy. Pie really doesn't put much of the detailed enough to ensure it is 100% accurate but enough to not draw suspicion (like most mods), so I think it comes off as looking for a mislynch
I asked Wylted for his justification. Once he gave it (after deliberately being obtuse), I mentioned that it was thematically a little bit odd but plausible, and moved on. I have not been and am not looking for a Wylted lynch, especially as his role is semi-confirmable.
[Why I investigated whiteflame]
Yeah, I buy it.
Created:
Posted in:
I'll be really busy all day tomorrow at a chess tournament, so I'll only be able to check in every few hours or so. I'll reread it carefully after
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
Regarding your thematic analysis, it looks solid. I would personally consider Nico more of a side character. Octavian and Rachel do stick out, but Rachel moreso I think.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
While I disagree with some aspects of how you characterized the basis my participation in the lynch, I nonetheless concede (as I have already) that I made an error in judgement and pushed the lynch too hastily. That being said, given that we had at least one known town on that lynch (Luna) who was actively aiming for it, and given that I was on it, heavily pushing for it at the time, and have been "copped innocent," (still not sure I believe that) it's hard for me to scumread it. Maybe that's just because I was a participant, but especially given how close we were to the end of the DP and the rush of posts that were occurring at the time, I can at least understand how WyIted as town could have decided to hammer. I wish I'd made a better decision, but I felt rushed due to a lack of time and didn't have the time to have a substantial back-and-forth over it.
I'm not trying to mischaracterize things or anything. However, it genuinely looks like several people - some of whom ignored their previous behavioral reads - simply hopped on the wagon for reasons I still can't really fathom. If you believe Joebob somehow scumslipped post role-claim, then I'd like to hear it. Otherwise, it seems that we lynched an innocent dude because his role wasn't worded exactly like a random site's similar role.
Anyway, that's all I'm going to say about it - but it definitely should be a factor in everyone's behavioral reads on the participants on that flash wagon.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
Did you ask Pie if GP counts as scum, btw?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Barney
Damn, I thought these were kids books... ;)
Ngl they should really be considered young adult, especially the later ones. I remember when I brought one of the books to school in 1st grade the teacher called my parents and sent me home for the day.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
Okay fine. Something about 2 lovers and not knowing which one she will be with or whatever
That's a serious stretch, but I can imagine it working. Sort of.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
Ok I know you're being Wylted, but basically, I just want to know your justification so that I can determine whether it's really a convincing CC
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
GPT gave me a similar thing, but I'm pretty sure it's just a hallucination. She doesn't have prophetic abilities, and as far as I remember, never receives a dream like the other demigods do.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
I didn't want to go here yet but I did want to insult Austin once again for being anti town by speculating on roles and ignoring behavioral analysis.
And how well has ignoring mechanics worked for you in the past few games?
I dont believe in no lynches personally and do think you would have been okay with a no lynch last dp
I feel like you're purposefully being misleading here. I never advocated for a no lynch. I simply thought it was silly and anti-town for you to hammer someone who had a potentially semi-confirmable role with hours left in the DP as well as an alternative guaranteed lynch on GP
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
Not really in the mood for this rn. For what it's worth, GPT gave me nada.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
Justification? That really doesn't make sense with what I know of Reyna's character...
Created:
Posted in:
Nvm you are on his wagon, but still, you could've just refused to vote Joebob out. Out of the remaining people on GP's wagon - BK, Earth, and Joebob, the former two wanted GP out and the latter wasn't going to vote himself.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
For that matter, if you really want to kill GP so badly, why didn't you hammer him on the first DP?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
If he was a x1 cop, it would make sense, since he has no more results to give and thus no reason to hide. On the other hand, claiming a x1 cop at all is rather silly, considering now he's reduced the potential PR pool by one for scum to choose from
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
Can Vader even be CCed by a light cop like watcher? What re people's opinions on what would be a CC?
I would say that having three investigative roles in one game is perhaps a bit too much.
I really am not ad this is why I advocate rushing lynches in general.
Yet another problem for mafia philosophy. That being said, I don't think I made a wrong call by refusing to hammer GP while I was online. Hammering would deny us the ability to get information from Joebob, who was being sussed all over the place behaviorally.
What was the wrong call was you actually hammering Joebob. We still had an hour and a half left in the DP, and I promised I would be online half an hour before it ended to hammer if necessary. I've read the last few pages over and over - even with the benefit of hindsight, I still don't get why you flashwagoned him.
Let's go over the events slowly.
-Joebob is on 4/6. About 3 hours remain in the DP.
-Joebob claims Nico and Emissary. He claims his role closely to how its described in the PM, only slightly vaguer.
-GP and Wylted ask for clarification (reasonably)
-whiteflame directly susses Joebob before Joebob has a chance to respond, solely based on the MafiaUniverse description (which as we've already established with Soldier, Pie mishmashes roles weirdly)
-Joebob responds badly to whiteflame, doesn't clarify why his role is different
-whiteflame calls BS
-Vader jumps off, then jumps back on the wagon
-whiteflame and Vader call BS on Joebob's version of the role - again, solely based on it being different than an unofficial official source
-Before Joebob has a chance to respond further, Wylted votes him out without explanation less than 2 minutes after Joebob clarifies his role
Like no matter how you slice it, that's horribly anti-town. Maybe it's my personal philosophy, but given the choice between a suboptimal but guaranteed lynch, or lynching a player who could potentially confirm themselves and provide useful info for us, going for the latter makes no sense.
I know I'm fixating on this a lot, but I'm genuinely shocked how fast the wagon ran away without a single town member trying to slow it down - to me, it seems that the wagon must've been "encouraged" by at least one scum member.
Created:
Posted in:
Don't have much time to catch up rn but:
-Wylted is gaslighting me
-I'm still suspicious of Vader for both mechanical and thematic reasons, but we'll have to wait to see his reads
-I don't see what complaining about not being investigated does
Created:
Posted in:
I felt a little bit unsure regarding Vader's role and character claim for some reason and I suddenly realized why, I remembered that there's another character who fits Cop much better. Reyna is one of the leaders at Camp Jupiter and she has dogs with the ability to sense deception and wrongdoing. She's also a fairly well-known character (probably on par with Nico). So I definitely sus Vader a bit for this reason.
Created:
Posted in:
I just realized he claimed x1, wasn't paying attention. I find that slightly anti-town, SOP is that you don't say when your role gets max utility so that you bait a useless NK from scum
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
No results. And yes, I did consider that - it's like having a Rolecop and a Cop in the same game. However, it's still risky enough that I doubt he would fakeclaim without being pressured. Lot of risk for minimal reward
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
Why did you hammer Joebob? We still had time and judging by the thread, he hadn't even finished clarifying his role yet
Created:
Posted in:
Also, I´m concerned about the Joebob lynch yesterday. First, the total lack of resistance (I think all the votes switched over within a page or two), and second, the fact it happened at all.
He literally had a semi'confirmable role. Yes, he was behaviorally sus (I´m not going to pretend I claimed otherwise), but the problem is that we have to lynch GP sooner or later. I don´t understand why you didn´t get lynch GP and let Joebob get a night of information.
Created:
Posted in:
Kinda busy today, but I´ll try to post occasionally.
First of all, yáll are maniacs for going after BK again. I still haven´t see anyone give convincing reasoning for why he´s sus other than the fact that his role is unconfirmable and he´s acting like... himself. Anyone who´s played with BK for a game or two knows that I mean.
Vader´s role justification makes no sense whatsoever, but the only way he would be lying is if he got that as a fakeclaim, otherwise it would be ridiculously risky to claim the most common investigative role and possibly get CC´d. Based on my survey of Pie´s past games as well as my own knowledge of modding principles, giving Cop as a fakeclaim is bordering on bastard.
Created:
It's a bit late for April Fools, isn't it?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
It doesn't. Seeking information with the aim of making a decision based off that information is not meaningless. If the claim isn't convincing, it's a basis for going through with the lynch. If it is convincing, we have an alternative.
Then you might as well threaten to vote if you just want to seek information. Anyway, that's a problem for mafia philosophy. I will vote if there's less than 30 min in the DP left and no one else is willing to change
Created:
Posted in:
I'm honestly just so tired of this at this point. I've given my thoughts on JoeBob. I didn't add to them here because I was already clear. All I did was push back on your characterization. And I already am pushing JoeBob, so if you still think I'm scummy, then fine, whatever.
I don't know much about whiteflame's meta, but that tone doesn't strike me as very cooperative
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
Explain? I simply think that voting without actually intending to lynch is pointless. It makes the votes effectively meaningless
Created:
Posted in:
Anyway I'm not going to vote anyone for now, y'all have enough votes to choose a wagon without me. Again, I usually don't vote unless I'm willing to see someone lynched at that moment
Created:
Posted in:
Second, my issue with the wagon on JoeBob isn’t that there is no basis for it. I’ve already acknowledged the lurking as a basis (and, to a lesser extent, the sheeping). My problem has been the specific behavioral cues that are setting people off, all of which seem to be issues that don’t take into account his past play and view in him a vacuum, which has become the common means of eliminating newer players early for some reason, often to our detriment. Beyond that, it would be one thing if they were pursuing him for a claim. It’s quite another to say that these reasons are sufficient for a lynch. I’m fine with pushing on him for future DPs. I want more information, which is part of the reason I’m fine with the lynch on GP since it will clear several things up for me. I don’t think just getting a lynch on JoeBob serves us as well (and frankly, I haven’t seen anyone justify its utility beyond just saying he’s behaviorally off), not with such limited scum tells that could easily be the result of playing two games at the same time (the lurking) or his scattered attempts to understand a role that’s been called out as a player who has never seen it before (the sheeping).
This is some serious fluffposting BTW. A paragraph of text boils down to acknowledging the behavioral reads on Joebob, and weakly suggesting pushing him later. I'm skeptical that whiteflame really made a serious attempt to analyze Joebob's behavior.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
About the soldier thing:
How Soldier has appeared in previous games doesn't necessarily dictate how it will appear in this game, but if I remember correctly, the role you're thinking about is Survivor.
No, I'm pretty sure I got it right. It's not a third party - it's simply a town role that gives town an extra way to win by surviving into endgame. The thing is, Pie literally used the exact same role in previous games, I can link them if you want. The chance he suddenly switches it to another definition is very low. Furthermore, it's the only definition that makes sense as a fakeclaim.
That being said, I'm going to drop this, since I don't think it's very helpful, and it's pretty clear that GP has no reason to lie about this.
Created: