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@whiteflame
Don't have much time to reply rn but I'm very sure it's the soldier that's been seen on DART, where it wins with town if last alive. Nothing else makes sense as a fakeclaim
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I suppose from a mechanical point of view, GP is probably the better lynch here. Just my thoughts:
To rehash what whiteflame and Earth said;
- I buy that he is Prophet. Soldier is a town-aligned role (how did none of you consider this?), and Jester is bastard.
- I buy that he did receive a fake roleclaim, if only because Frank and Soldier is a good justification
- Therefore, it's likely that he submitted his guess privately.
- DP5 seems unlikely, to say the least, it would take a very delicate balance of town and scum.
With that being said, he could screw town over as early as DP3 if we get two mislynches and two NKs in a row, giving us a 3 v 2 v 1 scenario where GP VTNLs and gives scum a victory.
That being said, I'm not really sure why Earth and whiteflame are so quick to dismiss Joebob. Behaviorally speaking, he's all over the place.
First, the lurking. Lurking is what I would expect from newb scum. In the last mafia game, it was patently obvious that he was lurking during crucial moments in order to avoid attention. He also got defensive when being accused of lurking. For example, in the last game:
So because I was at school I’m a lurker? Fun. I’m going to read 7 pages of debates then get back to you with my reads.
Second, the sheeping and logical inconsistencies.
Throughout the DP, he's been looking for any way to justify voting GP. In particular, I'm surprised that no one called him out for saying that GP could be soldier (a useful town-aligned role) and then saying we should vote him out anyway. It feels like he's simply trying to take the pressure off himself.
Finally, I still don't understand why people are sussing BK. He read his role wrong and has been as behaviorally annoying as in previous games, as far as I can see.
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I suppose from a mechanical point of view, GP is probably the better lynch here. Just my thoughts:
To rehash what whiteflame and Earth said;
- I buy that he is Prophet. Soldier is a town-aligned role (how did none of you consider this?), and Jester is bastard.
- I buy that he did receive a fake roleclaim, if only because Frank and Soldier is a good justification
- Therefore, it's likely that he submitted his guess privately.
- DP5 seems unlikely, to say the least, it would take a very delicate balance of town and scum.
With that being said, he could screw town over as early as DP3 if we get two mislynches and two NKs in a row, giving us a 3 v 2 v 1 scenario where GP VTNLs and gives scum a victory.
That being said, I'm not really sure why Earth and whiteflame are so quick to dismiss Joebob. Behaviorally speaking, he's all over the place.
First, the lurking. Lurking is what I would expect from newb scum. In the last mafia game, it was patently obvious that he was lurking during crucial moments in order to avoid attention. He also got defensive when being accused of lurking. For example, in the last game:
So because I was at school I’m a lurker? Fun. I’m going to read 7 pages of debates then get back to you with my reads.
Second, the sheeping and logical inconsistencies.
Throughout the DP, he's been looking for any way to justify voting GP. In particular, I'm surprised that no one called him out for saying that GP could be soldier (a useful town-aligned role) and then saying we should vote him out anyway. It feels like he's simply trying to take the pressure off himself.
Finally, I still don't understand why people are sussing BK. He read his role wrong and has been as behaviorally annoying as in previous games, as far as I can see.
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Apparently someone attempted to visit me during the night, but my gun got confiscated so I just scared them off with a water hose. Anyone wanna fess up?
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Also I'm not going to vote anyone for now, my personal philosophy is that I never vote someone unless I would be willing to see them lynched at that moment. For now, I'm still undecided
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@JoeBob
Good to see some of your analysis. However, I'm concerned about some stuff you put.
First, I'm going to ignore GP being Jester, since I think that's unlikely for several reasons. It's a bastard role that's horrible for balance and fun, and also the way GP is going about it doesn't make sense.
You mentioned that
He may be lying about what day he chose. He is saying that to make sure we try to get it done before then, which leads me to belive he chose a day before that or two.
Can you elaborate on that? Why would GP lie about the day he chose?
According to the mafia fandom, soldier can survive one night kill from the mafia. Now we could take two options. Vote him out and don’t. If we don’t vote him out, then he can sit around like he is now. And if we vote him out, then he is dead.
That's... some horrifyingly bad logic. First, the link you provided literally says that soldier is town-aligned. If you believe that, why would you want to vote him out?
And also, people do not get lynched when they aren't lynched, and die when they are lynched. This is hardly groundbreaking news. I want to hear your own analysis on why we should vote him out.
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@Vader
Interesting idea but I really couldn't see GreyParrot doing that even as 3p. If he did, fair play, but the odds of actively claiming you are a 3p while being in that role are highly unlikely imo
I think Prophet is a pretty bad to claim if you want to get lynched, since you're effectively daring town to ignore you. One easy breaking strategy that I've seen in a few Mafiascum games is just to claim Popular and wait for people to "test" you
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@Lunatic
Interesting you thought I was aggressive in the last game. I thought I was actually pretty passive. I had BK as a scum read in that game based on his character not fitting his role and some other factors and I never even needed up voting for him or leading his lynch
Yeah idk, that was just my perception. Obviously as a mod, I was somewhat biased because I knew exactly who the scum were, so it was easier to interpret some actions as being solely aggressive.
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@WyIted
Yes, I know, because I modded that one. I put that out of fairness because it wouldn't be very helpful for me to only give things I found suspicious while ignoring mitigating towntells
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@JoeBob
You do realize I expanded on your idea? I gave my side on something you said.
Wait a sec, when did I mention Jester? I'm pretty sure I never even entertained the idea, considering how absolutely bastard of a role it is.
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Lunatic
-Null/lean town
-Don't have a lot to go off of, but his aggressiveness reminds me of how he played in the previous game.
Vader
-Null/lean town
-See above, going in with guns blazing feels to aggressive to be scum.
Best.Korea
-Lean town
-Despite what some people are claiming, I just simply don't buy that he simultaneously came up with a convincing fakeclaim and then forgot the basic details of it. The only way I could see it making sense is if Pie gave scum a role and char claim, but even then, it would still require a substantial amount of research to find a key character detail and connect it closely to a niche role.
-Behaviorally speaking, all over the place but with BK it doesn't count for much.
Whiteflame
-Slight town (initially lean town, but I realized that it's actually quite hard to read him)
-He seems to be putting in quite a bit of effort into analyzing behavior
-Pushing GP could be seen as scummy (he's been doing it all DP), but I think he's pushing for a legitimate reason
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@Lunatic
I usually play very aggressively as town, for what it's worth - this is just my typical play. I think successful scumhunting relies on a mixture of pressure and analysis, and I'm not that great at the latter
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I'm not a big fan of how Joebob or Wylted have been approaching this, so I might as well jump in with my (running) list of reads, from most to least scummy - again excluding GP, who I'll address at the end.
Wylted:
-Leaning scum
-Behaviorally speaking, he has been more reserved than last game
-Pretty lurky
-I'm most sussing him based on his claim. I did a deep dive into roles on MUniverse and MScum and the only roles which specifically benefit if a specific person is lynched is the Condemner (also known as lyncher), which is a TP that gets assigned a target at the beginning of the game to lynch.
-Softclaiming that without actually specifying his role seems like a way to "speed up" a wagon thats already building up some momentum. This is exactly what Wylted did last game with his crappy "daycop" claim. I don't like policy lynching because it allows scum an excuse to vote someone who is, well, not scum.
-Let's assume, for the sake of the argument, that he is a Condemner or similar role. I can actually buy this for a few reasons. First, from Pie's designing point of view, if the role was in the game, it would make the most sense to target another TP, in order to reduce swinginess to either side. Also, I can think of a character who would fit the role character.
Joebob:
-Lean scum
-He seems to be lurking opportunistically, and posting "just enough" in order to not be pressured as an inactive. Yes, I get that reading through pages and pages of posts is a lot, but you can't tell me that it's not possible to skim and get 80% of the information in a quarter of the time.
-His posts reek of the "look at me, I'm so town" sort of vibe. In particular, I view the "catching up" thing as a scumtell; a town player has no worry of being scumread and will simply wait a bit before posting, while a scum player, especially a newb one, can feel pressure even when there is none.
-"I’m almost done with page 1." (I'm so town!)
-"What is GP is jester?" (weird theory, I guess we can give him some lenience because he doesn't know Jester is a bastard role, but still)
-"His playstyle is different than the other games I played with him, and his actions have been scummy." (Scumreading players on a bandwagon without any particular reasons. Could be sheeping, but his evolving meta in the past few games gives me the impression he wants to break out of that. So why return to it?)
Barney:
-Slight scum
-He could just be lazily skimming, but Barney doesn't strike me as the kind of person to do things by halves.
-His sussing of BK really makes no sense. When I asked him questions regarding BK, he dodged half of them; when I gave him important information and asked him to reconsider his opinion, he dodged them again.
-It feels like he's hoping I'll quietly forget about the issue and focus on GP.
-On the other hand, it would be easier for him to just "change his mind" upon seeing the info I gave him and pretend he was skimming, so that's why I'm only slight scumreading him.
Earth:
-Null
-Inactives are inactives.
Pt 2 coming up soon bc my class period is ending in a jiffy.
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@WyIted
I still think claiming a role which functions better when a particular person dies is somewhat suspicious, but I can see it won't get us anywhere to pursue further
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@Vader
He tends to lurk a lot and pop in opportunistically as scum, from what I observed in the last game. I don't really think that's the case here
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@Barney
Let's try this again.
-Why do you think Best.Korea is lying?
-If so, why do you think he lied?
-Do you scumread him?
-If so, would you be willing to lynch him at the end of the DP if no one else is being lynched?
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@Barney
Marie wished for all the riches of the earth from Pluto, despite his warning that the greediest wishes cause the greatest sorrows. But Marie insisted, mainly because she was tired of being poor as described in The Son of Neptune. Marie's wish gave Hazel a curse. Every precious metal that she summons from the ground would bring doom to the people who took them.
The justification seems pretty clear to me.
The Millionaire may after his death choose to write and publish a "last will" (a post-death message that may contain any theories or information they wish to share). If they had any items at the time of their death, they may also choose to bequeath these.
And the role clearly has both messaging and items.
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I missed Joebob's "question" to Greyparrot. Either he's skimming, or he's scum who's trying to look for a way to gracefully hop off the wagon to avoid attention. I don't really like that
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Might be kinda busy tonight. Just going to give my reads before I go (not including Greyparrot). Mostly based on intuition and my knowledge of the players' meta.
-Lean scum
-Slight scum
Barney
Wylted
-Null
Earth
Lunatic
-Slight town
Vader
JoeBob
-Lean town
whiteflame
whiteflame
Best.Korea
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@JoeBob
You seem pretty eager to lynch Greyparrot. Can you explain why we should vote him considering (if he's telling the truth about being a TP) he has a 0% chance of being mafia?
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I'm pretty sure scum implies anti-town. As far as we can tell, GP is more along the lines of neutral
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@WyIted
I don't buy that at all, your flip won't show any secret modifiers you have - for all we know, you could be random. Plus, there should only be one scum so you results don't make sense
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@WyIted
Generally, a role which improves based on someone being dead is suspect, because it would allow scum to get away with leading a bad lynch. That's why I'm fosing you
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@Barney
Alright, I'll fullclaim. I'm the NK-Immune Miller PGO Avengmner. Avengmner means that I win if someone places me at L - 1, and I hammer that person the same DP.
Here's my proposal: you put me at L - 1, and then I vote you out with the rest of the town.
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@WyIted
Not when you're implying it's possibly anti-town...
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@WyIted
Are you a condemner? You can't just say that without any context...
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@Barney
That's... aggressive of you. It seems to me that BK simply skimmed his role.
Just to clarify your position here so we don't have some backtracking shenanigans later on:
-Why do you think Best.Korea is lying?
-If so, why do you think he lied?
-Do you scumread him?
-If so, would you be willing to lynch him at the end of the DP if no one else is being lynched?
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@Barney
You haven't posted much yet, btw. What do you think of Best.Korea's role? Any reads?
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@JoeBob
I'm miller, Wylted forgot to investigate himself so he's actually innocent (guilty reverse)
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@WyIted
I disagree, I think we should wait until at after N1, so we have more information to determine if inactives like Vader are likely lying
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Which means:
1. Austin the NM (nerd master) guilty (but innocent cuz miller)
2. Burger.King guilty
3. Barney the purple dinosaur innocent
4. JoeBobBillyJoelJimButchEdBubbaJon innocent
5. RatMan guilty
6. Wylteds7thaccount guilty
7, mharman innocent
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@WyIted
I'm pretty sure that your cop sanity is insane, since I'm the miller (and some other stuff)
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@JoeBob
Do you have any reads on people? So far we've gone through GP and BK. What about WF?
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@JoeBob
FoS just means finger of suspicion, it means that someone has noted you as possible scum. It doesn't mean they actually think you are scum.
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Kinda surprised there's only one scum this game, there's probably some TP.
VTL RationalMadman
for activity
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@Lunatic
Can you show me where WF showed evidence of thorough research?
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@Lunatic
He sounds very familiar with the theme
Where did you get that from? Post #8:
I know nothing about the book series, but I hope my limited knowledge of Greek mythology and the research I’ll be doing into the books will help with theme analysis later. In any case, seems like this will be fun. - [WHITEFLAME]
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@Vader
That's what he said? You seem a little rushed here
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@Vader
That's true I suppose. I don't necessarily townread him because of it, I just strongly believe it's an actual PM, fakeclaim or not, due to the character claim
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@Vader
Good to hear your thoughts. A few things:
-We did spend quite a bit of time on GP, although I think WF brought up a legitimate reason to sus him - but I guess we collectively agreed to buy it? If only because there's not much else we can really get out of GP/
-Pie gave fake role claims in the past, check my analysis of his previously modded games. However, it's worth noting that his last two games had no fake role or char claims.
-Yeah I'm definitely approaching this game from a more setup-heavy analysis style, sort of a natural consequence of me reading through dozens of setups while designing my own.
I'll a little bit concerned on why you sussed Korea. It's a strange and highly specific role to fakeclaim, along with a character softclaim that literally fits the book exactly. Also, you know that everyone is a PR, right? Pie said it's rolemad.
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@Best.Korea
Not exactly pro-town, but I buy it if only because it would be much more convincing to give some other excuse
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