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Casey town for early aggro on GP
Luna town for early aggro on GP + townreading me when he could absolutely get me mislynched today
Vader probs town for SOP claim (especially if Savant is legit) + behavior
WF leans town for not taking the hammer
Still waiting on Savant
Wylted had an early vote on GP so that's decent, but need to see more
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@Savant
I have mechanical info, going to wait a moment to out it.
Savant, please claim your results, you have no reason not to.
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As an aside, Pie is definitely acting a lot more passive than I've seen him as town. Don't like him popping in solely to address Savant's FoS. He's also heavily focused on talking about mechanics rather than behavioral analysis.
I don't view it as a smoking gun, but as a contrast to his town meta, it definitely pinged me.
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My role is decent enough so I'll probs stay off-wagon unless it's needed to not end the day in a no-lynch.
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On Greyparrot:
If he's scum, then gj. I think it's equally likely he's being bussed or scum is off his wagon, but it's a good start and even though I look bad for defending him I'll just deal with the consequences tmrw, wouldn't be the first time I've had bad reads.
If town, I think then scum is actively trying to either stay in the background or passively encourage the lynch with poor reasoning - I'm FOSing Luna in particular for this - if GP scum, he's probably fine, but if GP town, I think Luna knows better.
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Savant's paranoia on Pie is obvious town for thought process.
Pie feels null right now, I guess I'll solve him off flips.
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@whiteflame
Notably, I haven't seen either Casey nor Austin respond with a category for their character, though in Casey's case, I think they've softed enough about their role that it's less of an issue. It's more glaring that Austin hasn't responded at all. We have about 14 hours left in the DP, so I'm going to seek that information in the time we have.VTL AustinState whether yours is a player action or a non-player action. If it belongs to a category (e.g. informational, in-game object), please state the category as well.
I'm a non-player action.
I don't play shooter games, so I'm not sure what category it would fall in. As far as I can tell, it has to do with how the map is designed, if that helps.
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@ILikePie5
Do yall town read Casey? Why or why not?
Yes - I think early aggression is generally towny if there's a clear thought process behind it, and the way they expanded on their read afterward felt pretty genuine, i.e. they didn't make up a justification after the fact. Scum don't really stick out their necks like this, and it's towny regardless of GP's alignment - if GP is scum, then Casey was the first one to push, while if Casey is town, they have no need to go this hard for a miselimination.
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Luna's reasoning for pushing GP is fast and loose and much worse than I have ever seen from town!Luna.
VTL Lunatic
will be around later
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@Vader
I have an FoS on Austin. I just find it hard for him to put me fully in the town pile. Even coming from me I am pretty weary in putting an SoP is solid town claims. The only reason I was skeptical of Pie's SOP last game cuz I thought having an PGO and a Bookie with 2 killing rules was mechanically off but I still had a lean town on him but my top town read.
I always townlean SOP claims, you can check my past meta. It just statistically bears out - out of all my time playing mafia here, I don't think I've ever seen a SOP claim at the beginning of the game be scum.
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WF's readslist is good. Compared to the reads he gives as scum, there's a generally higher ratio of analysis (i.e. opinions on what happened) as compared to information (i.e. a summary of what happened).
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Casey probs town for a very good reaction to pressure, not overdefensive and pretty good-faith with explaining their worldview. I think they genuinely believe in it even if I don't entirely agree. I also think it'd be much easier for them to push me considering I've been kinda inactive and defending an unpopular player and not doing that is a good look.
unvote
Lean town: Luna, WF, Casey.Slight town: Pie, Savant.Null: VaderSlight scum: Wylted.Lean scum: Austin-GREYPARROT
I think this post just completely lacks scum agenda, it's bad play for GP to scumread one of the few players actively defending him while also leaning town on Casey despite them sussing him. I really don't understand what he's going for here if he's scum.
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Most confident on Vader and Savant rn as being town. Vader for claim and behavior, Savant for behavior that I find very towny in regard to perspective.
Wylted is low-confidence, it's a sample size of one post but it is pretty towny.
Pie's vibes feel good but again, need to see more there.
Explained on GP, while WF is there just because he hasn't done anything wrong per se
Luna feels vaguely scummy but could just be lazy town
Casey is actively scummy off behavior, meta, and the "pushing an easy target after other players reacted badly to my push on another player" tell
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Reads
Town:
Vader
Lean town:
Savant
Wylted (didn't mention him, but I thought him interjecting with a mechanics post without really bothering to engage with the game is generally above >rand town behavior)
Pie (liked his perspective on the GP/Casey stuff, well-reasoend)
Slight town:
GP
WF
Slight scum:
Luna
Lean scum:
Casey
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Voting players for activity while actively sussing others is classically scummy btw
VTL Casey
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hi everyone
Thoughts so far:
-Vader's claim makes sense as a SOP, justification lines up very well, and we'll probably find out sooner or later if it's real based on the presence of a tracker/watcher. Solid TL.
-WF feels ok - I think after last game, I've gotten a slightly better handle on his scum meta, so hopefully I should be able to read him better.
-I like GP's claim - because at a surface level, Rolecop tends to be a pretty scummy claim, so I expect if he was fakeclaiming and planned to do so before the game started, he would think of something better. That aside, from a pure PM analysis/mod psyche pov, the part about rolecop specifically not showing alignments makes sense to include and is also a variant of rolecop that I feel Mharman would be more likely to do, since he often makes roles non-standard.
-Savant's note on GP's claim makes sense and I think it shows a towny perspective (i.e. being uninformed of GP's alignment, since it's a very specific thing to shade). That being said, I can say from experience that many mods play fast and loose with justifications and I wouldn't read too much into it.
-I don't like Casey's shade and vote. It's basically calling Role Cop a scummy role without considering the context of GP's claim, and I really struggle to see how a townie's first reaction is to claim that GP didn't describe his paraphrasing correctly when at best, if true, is not really relevant to alignment. Also, Casey pushing GP for alleged anti-town behavior in the form of wanting to use his role by not voting incorrectly feels like they're just taking the path of least resistance (i.e. not really thinking about GP's alignment, more just blindly pushing him).
-That aside, Casey feels different than last town game - they generally feel like they have a more narrow focus and less sort of free with their posting.
-I like Vader's analysis.
-Luna feels like he's just trying to get at low-hanging fruit, something that pings me by default.
-Savant's general caution reads as very townie - regardless of the alignments of any of the players he's talking about, discouraging early tunnels is pro-town behavior.
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@ILikePie5
I think over all my town games here, I've never once pushed someone for anti-town behavior. It's really not that difficult. I'm not saying it's unreasonable to push people for it, but statistically, it doesn't really bear out.
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@ILikePie5
Genuinely tho, if Earth wasn’t an idiot, we would’ve lynched Luna
My guy you were the one who pushed through his lynch over a typo lmao.
Earth could've played better but a single person never makes a lynch.
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@ILikePie5
Anti-town behavior comes from town the vast majority of the time (if I had to give a number, probably well over 80%). If you can correctly identify it as such, it's possible to save a lot of bad gamestates.
If you don't believe me, try pulling up an example of the last time someone acting blatantly anti-town flipped scum.
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Also don't rush in MYLO/LYLO. Kinda on me for being busy but coming back from dinner to find that I was lynched was a little bit sad.
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ggs. Excellent mechanical play by scum although I still think Luna should have waited before using his exe ability lol (but again, you can't argue with success). I do think scum deserved to be shot for killing a claimed PGO though... smh.... smh...
Unfortunately there was a lot of town-on-town violence here - please remember to always be willing to reevaluate, don't rush, and that just because someone is acting weirdly or anti-town doesn't mean they're scum.
Balance was good. The base roles are slightly townsided, but the 3P brings it very close to parity.
Thanks Casey for modding, thanks all for the game.
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Kinda conflicted here. Whoever the scum are, they've been playing well.
Please don't rush, at school rn and I can't post much, I will post full reads and pairings when I get back home.
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FYI I strongly lean towards Whiteflame having been framed. He's smart enough as scum to not use an executioner ability right after voting, that's just atrocious play when it'd be much easier to lurk until someone else was posting in thread and then message Casey or smth.
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I'm Batman vs Sherlock Holmes. Since I have Sherlock's deduction abilities, I'm the Odd-night Lie Detector.
N1, I submitted "Apart from them [Pie and the inactives], I have at least a town lean on most everyone except Luna, whose behavior so far has been null to me" by WHITEFLAME to lie detect.
(I added the brackets to show the context of the statement, which Casey would take into consideration)
Casey told me what would happen depending on WF's alignment and other people's:
WF town: Casey would say "I don't know"
WF scum: Casey would say "Lie" or "Not a Lie", depending on whether the reads are correct
The idea being that town!WF could be lying about his reads or telling the truth so it's unknowable, while scum!WF either is lying or is just TMIng people town so it would definitely show as Lie or Not a Lie.
So I figured it would basically be a cop check on WF, and maybe even give some extra info if he was scum. I checked him because I usually don't read him very well and I felt his D1 play was generally passive in a way I didn't like.
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We want third parties on the town's side, driving them away is antitown regardless of your affiliation. Surprised grey overlooked this when he just accused me and wf of wanting to lynch third party.At this point, neither Greyparrot nor Vader is making sense. Why is Vader overlooking Grey's odd behavior? Why is Grey overlooking Vader's antitown behavior? Either they both have tunnel vision, or there's a scum there. I could honestly vote for either of them at this point, but I'd like a full claim from Vader if he hasn't given one already.
Scummy post.
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This is assuming that 3P is a different affiliation from scum. If not, I probably have to throw my reads out and start over, but I'll wait for Luna on that.
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@whiteflame
Alright, so more of a test using the RB than the protection of the JK. I get that. Also, crazy odds that you’d be the town RB two games in a row. I’d be sussing that if not for the Justice result.
WF? Gambler's fallacy..? Surely you know better...?
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Vader's handling of the 3P claim is very behaviorally towny imo, doesn't read as informed of banana's alignment in any way.
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Lunatic - Town. Role seems confirmed. However, we know that scum has some information due to the Pie kill, so it's possible he could get this info as scum. Yet his affiliation seems the most certain right now.iamanabanana - Probably third party. Claim was early, and he phrasing of Luna's role supports this. However, it's possible they have a scum partner who advised this claim after seeing Luna's role.whiteflame - Leans town. He's narrowing down PoE way more than a scum player needs to, and while he could just be intentionally acting townie like he usually does as scum, I think there's other tacks he could have taken if he wasn't sure who was going to be a target.WyIted - Null. Idk why scum would silence themselves, but it's a WIFOM play and likely prevents a lynch at least for one day. If he's town, maybe whiteflame silenced him? Idk, that was the only person he accused.Austin - Null. With PoE narrowed down, he's in the pool of possible scum, but his response to me jailing him seems townie.Greyparrot - Possible scum due to process of elimination. Hasn't contributed as much as he could have.Vader - Likely scum due to process of elimination. He posted a lot at the start of the day phase, which struck me as an attempt to take control of the conversation in a way he wasn't doing early on in the first day phase. Just comes across a bit strategic.
Oh this is a pretty bad post.
POE relies on having townreads, and shifting nullreads to scumreads as a result. Savant's main reason for scumreading GP and Vader comes down to POE, which doesn't make sense when he has two nullreads and a leantown.
I think the level of confidence in his POE is disproportionate to the level of confidence in his townreads.
That aside, the tertiary reasons for scumreading Vader is pretty bad. Being proactive early is a fundamentally towny trait.
Combined with his weird JK play earlier, I'm comfortable to
VTL Savant
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I think Savant's claim is probably real (i.e. he was responsible for my action failing). Whether he's jailkeeper or roleblocker, and town or scum, is another story. I don't particularly understand why he targeted me - jailkeeper is almost always used offensively (on strong scumreads) or defensively (on strong townreads). Doesn't really make much sense to target someone in the middle, because even if it stops a kill, you don't know whether they were saved or blocked.
I'm not explicitly scumreading him for it since it's more a question of "would town play optimally" (they often don't), but it doesn't shift my perception of his alignment too much.
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@Lunatic
Did you ask Casey if scum and 3P would investigate as different affiliations?
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@Vader
I just find it a bit weird how he was set and stone on believing that they were a 3p rather than explore the options.I also don't love wylted in the POE he gave too.
I feel like you're misrepresenting my position here. My current opinion is that Banana is a 3P. What part of my posting made it look like that was set in stone? There was zero implication of that whatsoever. Me dropping in and giving my thoughts doesn't mean that I'm never changing them when I get back.
I don't see a strong reason to take Wylted out of the POE - I'm assuming silencer is always a scum role, but I've seen people self-target with it before - that aside, he was slightly towny during DP1, but not to the extent that I'd townlock him.
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@Vader
Looking at whiteflame's behavior analysis from last game to this game. It definetly feels like Whiteflame is not focusing as much on reads and behavior analytics as much and instead is relying on a theme split that he admitted himself he is relatively not as well informed on. I've played a few games with him as scum and seen him play as scum and I think he engages a lot more behaviorally with town and does a lot more behavior analysis. He also comes off strong in DP1s when he's town compared to when he is scum, and I think he was relatively weak coming into this DP and really didn't do much. While I don't want to dock off points for being busy and having a lot of your plate, I think that some of his analysis is just a lot more subpar and "coasting" through the DP rather than giving thoughtful insight. Even when the pace is slow WF usually engages a bit harder in the DP to get conversations going.
I agree with this fwiw. It's part of the reason why I targeted him last night (although again, I am not going to specifically claim what my role is)
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@Vader
Also I want to point out as well. Scum are not given fake claims. Pie's post in DP1 suggested that mafia are only given 2 questions to ask if a role and a claim are in the game...Why wouldn't the same logic apply for a 3P, and better yet, why would a 3P need a fake claim???
Not really sure what you mean by this - you're implying that banana is lying about being a 3P, yet if so, why would she assert the presence of a fakeclaim when it doesn't make her claim more believable?
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Kinda busy tonight, just dropped in to out my mechanical info.
Rough POE is WF/Vader with Wylted/GP slightly townier.
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I think banana's claim is probs real just bc if she's scum then any reasonably experienced player knows that claiming 3P is a bad idea to survive, she'd always be better off just taking the 1v1 with Savant.
That being said, it's definitely a concern bc if she's alive on DP4 and it's MYLO (very possible if we get one correct lynch and one mislynch) , then there's strong incentive just to quickhammer and let scum NK on NP4 for the win.
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I think it's very likely that scum have some way to bypass (?) PGO, I know some variants of Ninja work that way, or maybe scum have some Bulletproof role. I can't imagine them gambling a kill on Pie for no reason.
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Think banana's claim is real. So is Luna's.
I attempted to target WF last night and my action failed. Not going to say more at this time.
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@Savant
What does that mean?
Greater than random chance - i.e. some behaviors aren't really alignment indicative for a specific person (simply because we know nothing about that person), but statistically, it makes them more likely to be town or scum.
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We still have almost 19 hours. Don't see any reason to rush this day. That being said, barring any significant change, my vote will probably end up on Redeemed.
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Town:
Savant
Pie
Towny:
Vader
Luna
Slight town:
Earth
WF
Null:
GP (dropping this bc I remember him being more active as town last game)
Luna
Below Null:
Redeemed
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Wylted kind of posting freely is a bit town, iirc as scum he tends to go for more narrow reads and fluff less, though it's been a while since I've seen him as scum.
I feel like I have too many townreads rn lol.
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Earth's entrance is ok. Slight town, I think a scum would try to and get a bit more of a strong start while here Earth just looks unbothered.
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@Savant
VTL RedeemedHis last comment says he received the massage from Casey
I view flaking as a >rand scum action, from experience - newb scum are just much more likely to get out of here. And it's clear it's intentional. Unless he has a good explanation, I'd probably prefer this for today over anyone else aorn.
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Pie's willingness to be the policy lynch is sharply towny - it's a moment where he could easily let attention skate by onto the inactives, but instead offers himself up. Really don't seem a scum player doing that, there's just no sense behind it.
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im tempted mospyche town read all the afk's, but then I thought better of it. At first I figured by mod psyche he wouldn't have started the game without at least mafia confirmation but I am starting to doubt that, and maybe he just started the game without any confirmation from anyone.
Towny comment by Luna, iirc he has a known habit of angleshooting mod behavior to get alignment reads when he's town.
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