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@Savant
but then there are so many serial killers to fake claim who are less obscure than Myra Hindley. Not saying it's impossible that a scum player would brazenly claim their actual character, but they're probably less likely to when the theme split is supposedly obvious to them.
There aren't many female serial killers, however. I think it's very possible you softed Wuornos with Hindley as your backup.
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@Savant
I think I'd prefer a full claim unless you have really good reason not to provide one.Yes, I have a good reason not to provide one. Not going to say what it is right now.
So, was your good reason just that your role is technically confirmable?
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@whiteflame
Alright, fair enough then. Still weird that Savant would be a member of a pair like that, however. I've kind of been operating under the assumption that that's what's going on with Pie tbh. I would really like to hear his input.
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Actually, I still want to wait for Austin to show up and give his claim, but let's lynch Savant after.
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@Savant
Ctrl+F doesn't reveal anything about 'code' or 'message' on the wiki page. It's also sus that you're claiming a member of a duo to begin with. Is Ian Brady your partner?
I'm down to lynch Savant.
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@WyIted
Savant said rape was involved Aileen Warnhous wouldn't fit. There was a few female serial killers who were part of teams that did participate in rape.
It's the specific way Savant said that rape "was involved" without specifying that his character committed rape that pointed straight at Wuornos for me. That specific choice of wording feels very, very deliberate.
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@WyIted
I will say she didn't exactly commit sex crimes unless you consider prostitution a sex crime.
That's the thing, though. Savant didn't say that his character committed sex crimes, he said that "rape was involved". To me, that very clearly pointed to Wuornos, as she claimed that all her kills were done in self-defense against men who were trying to rape her.
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@whiteflame
Kind of assumed there could be someone else who fit that description, but I haven't had the time to research it since.
If Savant claims anyone else, I think I'm going to have a hard time believing it tbh. I want his full claim as soon as he gets back online, and it better be a hell of a good one.
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@whiteflame
@Savant
I kind of want to get fullclaims from both of you now.
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I'm actually not sure which of them is more likely to be lying here. It's weird that WF saw Savant's softclaim and didn't immediately pick up on who he was softing.
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@whiteflame
@Savant
I'm Aileen Wuornos. As I said early in the DP, I didn't know this person before I heard about her associated movie, Monster.
... You're shitting me. That's literally the exact person that Savant softed.
Well, that makes this an easy 50/50 I guess. Any thoughts, Savant?
VTL Savant
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@whiteflame
I guess I viewed his softclaim as being a partial claim, but it was enough for me to figure out who he was softing. I'm okay with lynching Savant just so that we have a lynch today, but I'm not sure if he's our best option. Actually, I'm going to go through the list.
- Whiteflame - very weak softclaim in retrospect, imo
- Me - Obviously town
- Austin - Ed Gein seems like it would be a pretty bold claim for scum even after the previous softs, but could still be fake. Waiting to hear his claim
- Bullish - softed John Wayne Gacy, probably town based on behavior imo
- ILikePie5 (1) - Good twin
- ILikePie5 (2) - Evil twin. No fr though, I feel like both are probably town, though I do find the idea that one is a 3P that wins independently to be interesting - it would give Pie a backup way to win in case he failed to meet his wincon.
- Vader - towniest player here. No way he YOLO'ed Ted Bundy of all people just like that. Justification also makes way too much sense.
- Savant - late to softclaim, but his character is fairly prominent. Does stand out for being female, but if the split is men vs women like Bullish suggested, then it would be a very risky claim - if Savant's partner died, it would out him as well.
- Wylted - Town. Mainly vibes, but the way he's acting in this game just feels very different from the last one.
- That2User - early soft, was definitely planning to claim Ridgway. Makes it hard for me to believe he's scum.
So, with all that in mind, I actually have a pretty narrow PoE pool of you, Savant, and Austin, which I'm fairly confident in.
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@whiteflame
Well, you’re going to need to give us something, whether that’s a partial claim or a decent softclaim.
To be fair, Savant has already done both of those things. I'm 99% confident I know who he is (or who he's picked as his claim).
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Unvote
Should not have stayed up this late, but now Vader is confirmed. Going to go crash, see y'all sometime tomorrow. Or, today, rather.
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@WyIted
Wylted, you can be vote #5 on Vader, and he can be vote #6 on himself. Just to ensure no funny business.
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With that being said, I see no particular reason why we can't confirm his Popular role. WF is right, we have the time.
Unvote
VTL Vader
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@WyIted
or maybe vader is the scum and pie balances it with double votes
Doubt it, Vader is like the one person I can't see being scum at all. Solid town imo.
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@WyIted
Popular can balance out Double Voter. Idk if that means Pie is scum, however.
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@That2User
As in Gary Ridgway, the Green River Killer?
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@That2User
That2, does your character give away your role? If not, please reveal it.
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@Bullish
If the character - role connections are not clear, this also does not give away power roles.
That's just the thing though, I think my character gives away my role, and from what I gather, WF's character is also strongly suggestive of his role. So no, I don't want us to mass claim.
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@That2User
Whiteflame's and Austin's reads posts feel good to me.
I'm okay with pushing That2 for more info/activity. Right now, she's basically the only player who hasn't given me some reason, however small, to townread her.
VTL That2
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@WyIted
Ed Geins is well known. The Texas chainsaw massacre is based off of him as is psycho and silence of the lambs. I would expect if lunatic wasn't using Google and going from memory Ed Geins would be one of the first 3 or 4 that came to mind. Perhaps Casey is Gen z and so he would seem obscure to her.
Huh, I actually wasn't familiar with him. That does change the way I view things a bit. I'm actually not too sure about pushing Austin anymore.
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@AustinL0926
Thinking about Austin's claim more, it's weird. On the one hand, Gein is arguably not even a serial killer, which is obviously a problem. He's also not as well-known as the other claims that have been made so far, which means it's more likely to be fake. On the other hand, I'm not sure that Austin would choose someone like Gein to use as a fakeclaim precisely because he stands out so much. Definitely a lot of WIFOM here. If we're going to push someone for a full claim, however, Austin might be our best choice.
VTL Austin
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@WyIted
Listen, I could be wrong here, but when Lunatic said that the theme split was fairly simple, I took that to mean that it was the kind of split where you could just look at the mafia characters and immediately have a pretty good idea of what the split is. Like in Debate Mafia or Paper Mario Mafia, for instance. The point is, I think it's very unlikely that any member of the mafia is going to straightclaim their character.
Austin's claim does still stand out for arguably not even being a serial killer, and if you want to push him for more information based on that, I think that's reasonable. But I think you're way too focused on thematic analysis. I genuinely don't think that's going to help us much this game.
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@WyIted
Wylted, screw your head all the way on for just a moment. Do you REALLY think that's what the theme split is here?
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@WyIted
You need to character claim right now if you aren't a rapist or necrophile
I'm not doing that
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@WyIted
Besides the rape thing, Ed Geins is not a serial killer he confessed to 1 murder and was convicted of another. I don't know that two murders qualifies you as a SK. He is mostly notorious for digging up dead bodies and turning them into lamp shades and other home decor
Okay, now this is a more interesting argument. I looked him up and from what I can tell, he is only known for two murders (which he confessed to) but is suspected of more. That does make his claim somewhat sus tbh, though maybe Luna is just using a loose definition of serial killer here.
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@Savant
My serial killer is a woman. Hadn't heard of this person, but rape is involved. That's all I'm saying about my character right now.
Okay, I know who you are.
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@WyIted
I feel like you're the one with an obsession with rape here, WyIted. A lot of serial killers also happen to be rapists. My character is not a rapist either, so that can't be the theme split anyway.
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@Bullish
I'm so sick of people immediately sussing the first town to actually try and move the game forward, this is why scum love to be inactive.
Your idea is bad but I don't really sus you for it, I just think you have the wrong idea.
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@That2User
@Savant
I feel Casey is right in mass character claiming helping wolves, not massively wolf sided but it is slightly sai
Sorry, what does sai mean? I feel like I'm always learning new acronyms.
Also, post #78 from Bullish feels genuine to me. As in, I think he clearly does have a particular person in mind, which makes him less likely to be scum imo. Could still be scum, but I feel like he's locking himself in with that statement. I'd rather push Savant for low engagement, only saying Pie could be 3P and not contributing anything else. I expect town Savant to be more engaged early on.
VTL Savant
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@WyIted
Lunatic said the theme split was simple so it shouldn't be too esoteric to figure out
If the theme split is simple, then scum probably already know what it is. I took that to mean that it was probably fairly obvious.
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@Bullish
Why are we mass character claiming? I feel like that's just going to hurt the town more than help it.
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@Lunatic
Alright, thanks for the mod confirmation.
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@ILikePie5
Yes, you have to specify. I do too when I’m voting.
That's... Really odd, actually. You have a really bizarre role.
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@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
If I vote for Pie, do I have to specify which clone I'm voting for, or can I just do this?
VTL Pie
Tell me something only the real you would know.
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@WyIted
From my extensive studies on becoming pardon I mean on other psychology of serial killers many got hit hard on the head as children like almost all of them so the split could be head injuries in the developing stage vs not in it.We also have what profilers would divide up as organized vs disorganized killers.We also have serial killer partners such as the ken and barbie killers vs non paired SKs.
Tbh I think you're thinking about this a bit too deep. Lunatic said the theme split is simple, and to me, that rules out most of your suggestions, though the mafia team being a pair of serial killer partners is a definite possibility. That being said, I really don't think theme analysis is going to get us anywhere in this game.
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Checking in. Ted Bundy being Popular makes perfect sense to me, though I'm not quite sure why Vader felt the need to instaclaim that. That being said, if the theme split is simple like Lunatic says it is, then I seriously doubt that scum would straightclaim their characters, and there's no way Vader would YOLO a claim like Ted Bundy, so I think he's in the clear.
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It's a damn good thing scum self-sabotaged in this game, because my reads were way off.
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Okay, I guess I should have trusted the gambler's fallacy then. Damn.
VTL Wylted
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The way Wylted and Luna are interacting here doesn't feel staged at all. Also, the way Luna revealed his character feels like what I expect from him as town. I'm pretty convinced on my townread on him. Though my gut still tells me that Luna is also town. I will vote for him just so that we can have a lynch if he's our only realistic option by the end of the day, but I'd prefer someone else who I don't have a townread on.
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@Lunatic
The whole time I was watching seasons 1-4 I was deeply considering what I would do as a mod with this character, and what whiteflame would probably do. Wylted's character is like the definition of third party in every sense of the word. Ultimately he becomes a "likeable" character and thus I would probably determine whiteflame might make this character town, but realistically he probably commits the second most amount of atrocities against humans next to dracula himself for mostly petty reasons.
Fair enough, but you're also assuming that Whiteflame made the theme split a simple good vs. evil split, and while that's certainly a good possibility, I don't think we can assume that by any means. Maybe it has nothing to do with how "good" or "bad" someone is. My first game was like that. Also, I don't think we can safely assume that WF would make the split so simple just because it's his first game. I remember players trying to use modpsych during my first game, which I thought was just ridiculous. It's reasonable to identify patterns in how mods design their games, but you can't do that if they've never actually made a game before. Any attempt to utilize "modpsych" here is just idle speculation -- worthless.
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Some of my other reads:
Savant - I've already shared most of my thoughts on him. I don't see a good reason to scumread him for anything he's already said, though nothing in particular makes me want to townread him either. The one thing worth noting is that he claims to have an affiliation-confirming role. I do remember the game where we were scum together (Time Travel/Rants) and in that one, he did suggest that I claim to have something confirmable (without specifics) during DP1, so I can imagine him doing exactly that here. That being said, claiming that your role not only confirms your claim, but also your town affiliation, is pretty bold, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. I'll say that Savant tilts town for now.
Pie - Hard to get a read on him. I thought I had a solid scum read on him last game, though I ended up being wrong about that one. Suffice it to say, I still don't agree with his reasoning for sussing Savant, but I don't think it's a scumtell in this case.
Austin - Hasn't said too much yet, but I think his reasoning behind scumreading me and Luna is reasonable at least. No clear reason for me to scumread him, but no clear reason to townread him either. Null.
Barney - Fluff, fluff, fluff. It's pretty much what I expect to see from him during DP1, which is a little bit annoying for me tbh. It's easy to get away with not really contributing anything substantial as scum if that's what you always do regardless. Null.
That2 - The only other game I've played with her was Shocking TV Moments, which ended fairly quickly and I really don't remember much of anything about her playstyle in that one. That said, I like her entry in this one. Didn't seem super concerned about the pressure being put on her for being inactive, and I like her interactions with Pie and Luna so far. Slight town lean.
Wylted - Town. Going with my gut on this one. Yeah, I know I say that every game, but ever since I correctly guessed that Wylted was the Jester in LOLOLOLOL Mafia based on the very little I had to work with from DP1, I've always trusted my gut 100% when it comes to him. The only thing that's really making me doubt myself is the fact that he has been town or 3P for an insane amount of consecutive games. I'm pretty sure the last game where he was actually straight-up mafia was Heroic Heroes, which was quite a while ago now. It feels like he has to roll scum soon, but I know that's just the gambler's fallacy. Actually, being good at playing mafia generally takes practice, and without recent practice, he'd probably be obvious scum after such a long townstreak. Unless he's also been playing mafia off-site; I wouldn't know about that.
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Alright, regarding Vader and Lunatic. I think Vader is probably being truthful about his Miller claim, as he made it immediately at the start of the game and the justification seems to check out. I can't completely discount the idea that maybe he asked about a miller before the game began and used that to gain towncred, but I don't think that's particularly likely here.
I liked the way Luna responded to Vader specifically because of why he was sussing him -- not merely for claiming an SOP claim, but for the justification not quite adding up in his mind. The interaction between Luna and Vader really does not feel staged to me. Also, I've said this before, but scum generally aren't super enthusiastic about lynching SOP claims during DP1, at least not internally, specifically because they are negative utility for the town. It's usually more useful for the mafia to leave them alive, unless they just come across as strongly towny behaviorally speaking and no one really questions their town status.
Regarding Vader getting his justification slightly wrong, it reminds me of my last game. This was how Vader described his justification:
The claim comes from the beginning part of the DP where it's a 1v4 and Ivan the Terrible is telling all these historical figures how they did and echoing them away. However when Ivan the Terrible meets Catherine, Ivan the Terrible tried to give a horse to Catherine because there was a strong rumor that she died by having intercourse with a horse, so she calls the horse story shit and declines the gift.
For reference, this is what his PM actually said:
You are Alexander the Great vs Ivan the Terrible! "Look alive, creme de la Kremlin's arriving. Try to serve Ivan, no survivin'. You're a land rover, I'm a land expander, here to hand you your first loss, Alexander." https://youtu.be/NVbH1BVXywYThis one is one of my personal all-time favorites. What starts off as a simple 1v1 turns into a 1v4 as Ivan battles several Greats from history - Alexander, Frederick, Pompey, and finally Catherine the Great, literally killing them all in ways that echo how they actually died in real life. Well, all except for Catherine, whom he tries to gift a horse, but fails to end her this way because, as she says herself, “that horse story is a pile of shit.” You must now predict who will die by public lynching. You are the Bookie. Once per night, you may guess who will be lynched on the following day. If you are correct, you will receive a 1x Vigilante shot which you may use to target and kill any player on the following night, in addition to your normal ability. You win with the Town.
As you can see, the two don't quite line up perfectly, but the basic idea is still right. Vader doing a similar thing here strikes me as being pretty familiar, which is part of why I lean town on him.
More to come, sit tight.
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