Casey_Risk

Well, for me, it's like you said: if I'm scum, then I've played this game very differently from how I've played all my other scum games, even the one that was just two games ago. I also was the first to vote for GP, and on only my second post of the entire game. If I set myself up to play the long con, I had to have done it immediately. Not only that, but just in general I've done several things that would be super risky plays for me as scum, like softclaiming an investigative role during DP1 and giving an MD result that helped take suspicion off of Wylted, which wouldn't have made much sense for me to do as scum. My play here just doesn't line up with how I've been known to play as mafia. On the other hand, my early aggressiveness when I had a strong personal read is reflective of how I played when I had a genuine (albeit incorrect) scumread during early Heroic Heroes. The decision is up to you, but in the end, in order to scumread me, you'd have to believe I took all these unnecessary risks, most of which I took very early, in a way which completely contradicts my usual scum play, all while avoiding the scumtell you'd noticed that I have. Personally, I think it's more likely that the player with the somewhat sus claim is scum. 

Yeah true, but either way if I am x shot roleblock and x shot ninja why do I get so lucky to prevent the sensor or detector from catching me and also prevent the redirection from Whiteflame to you?

So how do you think wylted would have used a ninja the same night whiteflame was roleblocked? How is this possible?

Right. But we know whiteflame was blocked too after austin died.

Why did you motion detect wylted? and why cop pie? You've probably said before, but please indulge me

Wait shouldn't this mean I should have died not whiteflame?

She also claimed being. Blocked so that's 2 role blockers and the sensor which also basically would make the watcher pointless.

It wouldn't redirect the NK though obviously I guess.

Then again why are you still alive after soft claiming an investigative role on DP1?

Casey in particular, since you haven't been involved much in the discussion, I'd like to get your perspective assuming we lynch either WyIted or Vader and they flip town. Is it clearly an either/or situation for you? Where does Luna fit into your perspective at that point? 

Another thing is if GP is your partner, you may have to use some different thought process. They were so adament on GP early on but hesistated on Austin's lynch. It just seems too perfect. Idk

I've been busy this morning and will be watching the Super Bowl with family this evening, but I have time to post my thoughts for now. 

The way I see it, Whiteflame is 100% town confirmed. Only a bastard mod would include a Car Thief with no Commuter, and I have to assume that Mharman is not a bastard mod. If WF somehow turns out to be scum, I am never playing a Mharman game again.

Luna's role is a bit odd to me specifically because it's a 1x role, and that makes it unconfirmable if he guesses wrong, which he apparently did. I did have him in my PoE for a while, but on reexamination, I just can't see him as scum anymore. The way he was quick to join the GP wagon and his strong defense of Austin during the last DP come off as very towny to me, so much so that I just can't justify lynching him today. If he's scum, then damn, Luna. Very well-played. 

So that just leaves Wylted and Vader. Both of them are very hard to scumread based off their behavior during DP1. Vader for his instant Gravedigger claim and Wylted for jumping on the GP wagon pretty much immediately. Both of those are very risky moves for scum. Based on claims alone, I'd be inclined to scumread Wylted, simply because a late Vanilla claim is always going to be suspicious.

That being said, I lean towards Vader overall. One reason is my Motion Detector result which helps to clear Wylted. (He could still be a Ninja of course, but nonetheless it is a point of evidence in his favor.) Another reason is that behaviorally, he doesn't remind me of the games I've played in where he's been scum. Which is... Actually only two games now that I think about it, which is kind of crazy. But I remember that in Villainous Villains and Heroic Heroes, there was just something that felt 'off' about him in a way that I couldn't quite put my finger on, but it bugged me. Wylted has one of those personalities that is so completely unique that it's completely inimitable, even for Wylted himself. I remember watching this video one time of an actor talking about the best advice he's ever received, and he said that once when he was trying to act drunk for a scene, the director told him that he was trying to stumble and slur his words, which was the problem -- drunk people try to walk and speak normally. That's kind of a poor way of paraphrasing it, but I think you get my point. That's the difference between scum and town in this game -- scum try to fall, town try to walk. Wylted feels like he has been trying to walk as he has stumbled. I don't know how else I can explain it, it's just my instincts, but they're never wrong when it comes to him. 

Really, the only way I'd believe this is if he and GP made a mistake and believed they had each others' roles.

All that being said, given that we have a Watcher and a Motion Detector, wouldn't be surprised if scum have a Ninja.

So... wait. Why did Austin claim JK instead of just claiming Compulsive RB? Did he think that would be more believable?

Also, sadly, not surprised that Savant's dead. Killing the claimed Watcher makes a good deal of sense for scum.

As far as I'm aware (I might have missed it, so correct me if I'm wrong), we still don't have claims from Casey and Luna, and at this point, I'm not taking chances. I want claims from both of you.

Is that the hammer? If not I have one final point to convince you to follow the plan

Are you willing to help lynch Austin?

Alright. My character is Vehicles. I am the 2X Commuter. Justification is pretty obvious.

I'd be surprised if my claim doesn't virtually confirm me, so if it helps with POE, I'll do it.

And your POE is also wrong too, me and austin are town mate. I don't know how I ended up in your POE after being one of the main pushers of GP dp1m but okay.

I buy a good chunk of Luna's reasoning. In addition, I think Austin or WF would have cautioned GP against claiming role cop. Hence, I think the second scum is either Casey doing a bus last day phase, which would explain accusing GP early on for a reason that didn't make much sense, or WyIted not caring and letting GP do whatever he wants. I don't think WyIted has claimed yet, so we may as well deal with him first.

Crashed last night after I got home, but I'm on now. 

Austin- Dude is like confirmed town in my eyes at this point. He was literally the only one that seemed to hard town read GP and his claim, and was actively FOS'ing me for being on the wagon. GP was a sinking ship though and it would be clear to anyone with common sense to abandon that ship. Him sticking by his GP read even when it was basically inevitable, shows genuine townie lack of knowledge, and he knew he would be scum read if he was wrong (he even acknowledges this towards the end of the day phase). Unless this is some big WIFOM reverse psychology play that most people probably wouldn't buy into but just conveniently works on me, austin is town here. I just can't see him doing that as scum.

faction perk is our actions don't fail

Mharman said he couldn't answer. There's a good chance Pie confirmed beforehand that Mharman couldn't answer and asked the question to look townie. And the way it's phrased makes it seem like Pie expects Mharman will give the answer. I don't think a townie would expect that and they would probably phrase it asking if Mharman would be able to answer that question (i.e. "are you able to tell us if...") I mean, when has a mod not said they gave fake claims in the game description and then came out and revealed they did when someone asked them? It doesn't make sense, and I don't think a townie would ask the question.

This reasoning is also WIFOM. It's assuming scum would bet on WIFOM thinking and therefore be willing to claim a scummy role. That's just another iteration of WIFOM.

That said, this is not a typical case and I don't think Grey put that much thought into his claim. He claims first thing every game, and it's not strategic. Which is why I'm inclined to take his scummy role at face value.

I don't like Casey's shade and vote. It's basically calling Role Cop a scummy role without considering the context of GP's claim, and I really struggle to see how a townie's first reaction is to claim that GP didn't describe his paraphrasing correctly when at best, if true, is not really relevant to alignment. Also, Casey pushing GP for alleged anti-town behavior in the form of wanting to use his role by not voting incorrectly feels like they're just taking the path of least resistance (i.e. not really thinking about GP's alignment, more just blindly pushing him).

Lean town: Luna, WF, Casey.

Slight town: Pie, Savant.

Slight scum: Wylted.

Lean scum: Austin

In context, not really: "As a town role, it's typically used in games where there are many roles which could easily belong to either side, such as Jailkeeper or Rolestopper. Tough to say whether this is that kind of game yet, though based on my own role, I'm not convinced."

Casey isn't saying their role doesn't work with GP's, just that their role doesn't make GP's role more likely.

I like GP's claim - because at a surface level, Rolecop tends to be a pretty scummy claim, so I expect if he was fakeclaiming and planned to do so before the game started, he would think of something better. That aside, from a pure PM analysis/mod psyche pov, the part about rolecop specifically not showing alignments makes sense to include and is also a variant of rolecop that I feel Mharman would be more likely to do, since he often makes roles non-standard.

Then let me put it another way: we've never, as far as I can recall, lynched scum day phase 1 because of a single scum tell.

Every other player starts with 75% odds of being town from my perspective (and yours, if you are town). Even if GP is a bit scummy, his odds of being town could still be over 50%, and even if he's a good lynch by the end of the day phase, I'd still like to observe behavior a bit more.