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Pie's role claim is interesting. I agree with WF that it does seem to give us a peculiarly large amount of information, and yet I'm inclined to believe him. From a balancing perspective, it makes a certain amount of sense. I also agree with his thought process regarding Austin placing an unusual amount of importance on role confirmation -- that also didn't sit right with me.
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I think it's slightly sus that no one who has posted anything since Pie made his claim has commented on it other than Whiteflame. It's a very impactful claim, and you'd also expect scum to want to take their time deciding how to react to it publicly. I think this a great chance to get some behavioral reads.
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@whiteflame
I actually forgot about that from the signups page, so thanks for bringing that up again. That does make your reasoning make a lot more sense to me, and it does make confirmation-role analysis much more meaningful. Which I actually really don't like from a game design standpoint, but we may as well take advantage of it.
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@ILikePie5
Alright, I've been out for most of today, so I'll post various thoughts here.
It seems to me like Luna intentionally designed this game to include many confirmable roles. GP's role is obviously confirmable, Wylted's is confirmable, Vader's is apparently confirmable, and I'll just state here that mine is as well. That's nearly half of us with a confirmable role.
I'm really not sure where WF is going with post #73. Claiming a category that isn't yours is a good way to get instantly CC'ed which is suicidal, so I think it's pretty clear that scum are just going to claim whatever their real category is whenever they claim. I guess scum could claim their partner's category, but then if one of them dies... see Pie's Recycled Roles. Put simply, I don't place any importance on whether a role is verifiable or not, unless that role is exceedingly unlikely to be scum, like GP's role.
Wylted on the other hand... Tough to say. I think the nature of it leans town, but it could also easily be a scum role. The way he announced his role at the beginning could be a townie thing, trying to build trust. Or it could be a scum thing, trying to build trust. Tbh though, one thing I've learned about Wylted is that trying to analyze him through the lens of game theory never really works. I always have to rely on my gut 100%, and I always end up being right when I do that. I'll know whether he's scum or town by the end of the DP.
Pie has been weirdly quiet this game. I don't know if that's necessarily alignment indicative -- he as scum would know that suddenly going quiet would be a very noticeable behavioral shift -- but I would like to see more from him regardless.
Null on Vader for now. I disagree that Hammerer was a poor choice in comparison to Austin's other options, but I don't really scumread him for his thought process.
I am going to vote for Pie for now because I want to hear more of his perspective on this game.
VTL Pie
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@ILikePie5
I think in terms of claims we should have everyone claim the roles they are NOT as a part of their full claim in addition to their category (being first claim)
As in, saying what our other options were besides the role we chose?
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Okay, GP is town. No reason for him to lie about having such an easily confirmable role, and I can't see a role like that going to mafia. That's actually one of the situations where role confirmation is essentially affiliation confirmation.
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@Greyparrot
I have a one-time ability to undo a lynch. After someone is lynched and their role is revealed, I can use my power to bring them back into the game. However, they’ll return as an ordinary vanilla townie. This ability (obviously) cannot be used on mafia members.
That's interesting. I haven't seen a role like that in a game I've played before. Does the player you resurrect come back for only a limited time or the rest of the game? Because if it lasts for the rest of the game, that seems stupidly powerful.
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@Savant
Some roles seem pretty unlikely to be mafia. Like talking to any person at night. I don't see Luna going that far to try and throw us off.
You should check out Indian Politicians Mafia in that case.
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@Savant
Mostly it was because I thought the other roles were very unlikely mafia. Thinking back though I think there might be some mafia voting roles. Really depends how confirmable they are.
Role confirmation ≠ affiliation confirmation. This is something that's been pretty well-established by now. We can't treat someone as town just because we know they're not lying about what their role does, unless it's extremely unlikely that their role is a mafia one.
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@Vader
I've never seen a bookie be used in the game before... Has any other mod used it? I looked it up on Wiki and seems interesting
I know Pie has used it in at least one of his games before. It's what Moozer claimed to have in Luna's Recycled Roles, though he was actually a 3P Lyncher.
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@Vader
In theory you are right but I am going to push back. Not to modpsyche but Luna is definetly the type of mod to make investigative a mafia role.
Something like Mafia Scout then? I could see that, though I'd also have to believe that the town has no investigative role of its own, which feels a little hard to believe. Though I agree that we should probably be focusing more on behavior. Right now, I have a slight townlean on Savant. His efforts to try and solve the game quickly feel genuine to me.
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@Savant
I was thinking along the lines of strongman.
Could be, I guess I see where you're coming from there. Can you think of any other killing roles that are typically mafia, though? I was thinking along the lines of Vigilante and Bookie, personally.
I don't think mafia would get neg utility or passive since they only have two members.
Maybe. I do think those roles are less likely to go to mafia than other roles, but it all depends on how strong the partner is. Also, remember that "Mafia will have role options to pick from not on this list however." So presumably one or both partners will have a power beyond their role category. Passive can also include stuff like Ascetic, which is not bad for a mafia ability.
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@Savant
If I had to guess, "Manipulation" and "Killing" are probably mafia categories. If we all claim, we might be able to single them out that way.
We absolutely should NOT all claim, what? Terrible idea imo. I think that a majority of the roles are potential mafia roles. Protective and Investigative are both almost certainly town, on that I agree, but I think Killing is also likely town, because it's redundant for the mafia to have a killing role -- simply by being a part of the mafia, you can kill. I suppose the setup could be such that the killing role is assigned to specifically one player as long as they're alive, but I don't think we can assume that.
So, protective, investigative, and probably killing are all town. Everyone else could be either. No one should be claiming their role category this early, except maybe neg utility.
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I feel bad for whoever got the negative utility role. Imagine getting the choice to pick which role you wanted out of a whole list, and all of them suck.
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@Savant
Let's go!
VTL Savant
Welcome back! Been a while since you've played a game with us.
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I kinda stopped following this game closely sometime during DP2. Well-done to the scum team, though. From what I saw, they played quite well.
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Alright, I'm at work and won't be on again after my break until the DP has ended.
Cerulean pointing an FoS at Luna makes some sense to me, though he notably wasn't the first to point out his sudden pivot to Wylted. I can see town Luna doing that tbh, the only part I don't like much is his lack of commentary on Ceru's character claim. I don't want to push for another claim however, especially not this late, and it's still not enough to make me vote for Luna over Cerulean.
Cerulean is still effectively at L-1. I won't hammer him, but I'm not against his lynch today.
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@AustinL0926
Role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmation, just noting. Vanillaizer is most often a mafia-aligned role, I just townread Wylted behaviorally.
That's true. Maybe the bad guy really is bad after all, but if Wylted is lying, I doubt he's lying about his role. That's all I'm saying.
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@whiteflame
ADOL is as null as it gets given his absence.
I actually completely forgot he was even in this game. 💀
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Who are we going to lynch today? Because I don't want to lynch Wylted and there doesn't seem to be any momentum in favor of anyone else other than Cerulean. I'm not confident that Cerulean is scum, but I don't have a clear scumread on anyone else, and something about his behavior just feels off to me for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on.
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TBH I am 100% willing to believe that Pie would include the main antagonist of the series as a town character. In terms of modpsych, it seems like the sort of thing he'd do. The justification also checks out very well, and Vanillaizer is easily confirmable. I believe Wylted is very likely telling the truth.
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
@Cerulean
My character is Elva. My role is a weak investigative ability that I will not elaborate further on today.
Interesting. Austin and Luna, what do you two think about this claim?
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Due to New Years and a typo, I will grant a 24 hour extension. DP ends January 2nd at 6:30pm CST
Alright, good to know. With my headache pretty much gone now, I actually feel functional again. I'm not going to hammer Cerulean, but if we are going to push someone else for a claim at this point, I think he's our best option. I'm not super happy with him behaviorally, and his claim to be a minor character is inherently at least a little sus. Granted, that's always going to be true of anyone who claims a minor character, so it doesn't mean he's lying necessarily, but I still at least want to know his character.
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@AustinL0926
My main issue with Cerulean is it feels like he's not really reading people behaviorally, more just talking about mech or characters, which feels a lot different than how I remember him as town, e.g. in Mayday Mafia. Talking about game mechanics is fine, but there are some posts, like the odd one about "Earth might need to be a policy chop, or maybe not" without taking into account Earth's actual posting. It's a strange lack of curiosity.
I see what you're saying and agree to an extent, though Cerulean notably wasn't town in Mayday Mafia.
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@Mharman
Anyway, what do you think of the current situation with Cerulean. Also, what are your thoughts on Austin and Lunatic. I’m indecisive on them.
It's a bit tough for me to think straight right now, but right from his very first post I felt like Cerulean might have been fishing for information. I'm not convinced he's scum, but he doesn't seem like a bad option for a lynch today.
As for Austin, I have a slight townread on him. His reasoning feels genuine to me. Not quite sure how to feel about Luna yet.
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Hey everyone, I hope your new year is off to a better start than mine. I have a bad headache and just am not feeling that great right now. I'll try my best to be useful here.
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Keep in mind we have until january 5th so even with limited activity right now we aren't in a super huge rush.
Oh yeah, you're right about that. I completely skipped over that line in the OP. Thanks for pointing that out.
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@Lunatic
According to him its automatic right? If we lynch someone as normal, and get them to l-1 his role should automate.
Right, but he has to not already be on the wagon beforehand.
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@Lunatic
Fair though I mostly see the use of this list being to identify characters that are too "sidey" as being more likely suspect claims. There are only 9 players and there are at least that many main or big characters, probably a few I left out too. Characters not on that list will be a big red flag for me, assuming its just not a big one I forgot about.
That's a fair point, actually. I know when I was designing Ace Attorney Mafia, I didn't get to include all the main characters I wanted. Miles Edgeworth and Dick Gumshoe were both notable omissions, but all the characters I did include were at least fairly important characters. Ace Attorney just has a ton of characters, and from the looks of it, it seems like this series has a lot of characters as well. That makes Cerulean seem a bit more sus.
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@Lunatic
If it is a fake claim, then it is an incredibly strong fake claim, we can evaluate based on behavior but for now earth is solidly in my town pile.
I'd still like to make Earth prove himself today tbh.
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@Earth
Over time his name became widely known. Not sure where the Hammerer came from, but I guess Pie saw Stronghammer and wanted a Hammerer in his game.
Alright, I can see that. I'd definitely consider Hammer to be negative utility. If Wylted is telling the truth, then that means we have two town roles with negative utility in the game. Definitely not unprecedented, but it's something we should keep in mind when considering the balance of scum and town roles.
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@whiteflame
I don't really buy the idea that Cerulean would give away this mechanic openly if it is in this game and he's scum, since he'd be drawing attention to subtle efforts to communicate between elements of the scum team.
As we've already discussed, however, it probably isn't in the game, so his idea about speculating on possible scum roles feels like it could be a distraction. Personally, I'm a bit ambivalent about Cerulean right now. His idea of scum having limited information might be genuine, sure, but he's good enough to fake it.
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@Earth
Alright i slept on it. I am Roran and I am the Hammerer. If someone if at:L-1, I automatically hammer them unless I am already on their wagon.
Interesting. Justification?
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@AustinL0926
Town players have no reason to be scared about needed to claim their true role (which has a good justification), but scum players, who might need to fakeclaim depending on the scumminess of their role, now have to either commit to a good fakeclaim (if they claimed they had a good justification) or endure some pressure for having a poor justification (which, as we've established, is slightly outside the norm of the game so far).
Fair enough I suppose.
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@AustinL0926
Hope to see some more activity when I come back later, it's been a long time since I've seen a D1 hit scum and hopefully this game breaks the streak.
That happened in Bo Burnham mafia, only a few games ago. Though I don't think you were part of that one.
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@AustinL0926
For mine, I can see the connection but it's also not quite my initial expectations for my character.
I'd say that the justification for my role makes a fair amount of sense based on the biography of my character that Pie provided. I'm not sure how useful this sort of discussion is, though. I think we've established that justifications don't seem to be very loose for this game, so what else is there to say?
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And I doubt that scum don't know each other's character/role either
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@Cerulean
This has me wondering if we might have a gimmick at play which could involve evils not having full information- like lacking a factional chat or not mutually knowing each other's identities immediately.
Actually, on second thought, considering this line from the OP:
As always, Mafia will be given the opportunity to ask if any two roles and if any two characters are in the game at any point in time, to which I will truthfully answer.
...I highly doubt that there's no scum chat.
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It might be worthwhile to say if our characters are on the "Important Characters" list here. I ask specifically because mine isn't. This might narrow some things down.
That's not super surprising to me, usually there's at least one or two characters who aren't main characters in a game like this. Otherwise, you get something like BotW Mafia where the Town can easily solve the game DP1. (Honestly, the fact that the Town managed to lose that one is downright embarrassing.) I will say that my character is on the Important Characters list.
This has me wondering if we might have a gimmick at play which could involve evils not having full information- like lacking a factional chat or not mutually knowing each other's identities immediately.
Interesting theory; I'll keep that in mind. A question for the veterans here -- when was the last game that had no private mafia chat, if you can remember?
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@Lunatic
Durza is like the main villain in the first book, but this is for the whole series so I am not exactly sure he would rank higher than other villains.
Noted. I don't think Pie would make this game a simple heroes vs villains game, however. It's worth noting that in Pie's Heroes of Olympus Mafia, the two mafia players were the two main characters of the series, so main character claims should not be treated as safe town merely on the basis of character.
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@Cerulean
Wow, slow progress. Though, that's not really surprising to me given the timing of this.
It would definitely be worthwhile to see if we can at least speculate on what Mafia might have access to, role-wise.
I'd like to go back to this statement. I find it a bit odd - none of us should have any idea what roles exist in the game aside from our own individual roles, except for the mafia. How are we meant to speculate in a meaningful and productive way without just having people out their roles? Pretty much anything is on the table at this point.
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@Cerulean
Has anyone here played Secret Hitler before? I promise this is relevant. I'll elaborate later.
Never played it before, though I've watched a couple videos on it and understand how it works. I'm curious where you're going with this.
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Oh, wasn't expecting this to start today, but okay. Hope everyone had a good Christmas that celebrated it.
Personally, I know basically nothing about this series, other than that it involves dragons and stuff, so I'm pretty much going to be useless on that front.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
It's not too hard to understand, actually. There's a lot of acronyms and stuff that we use as shorthand, but aside from that, the idea behind the game is fairly straightforward. Be sure to read the guide to forum mafia:
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Alright the subject finally made me click on one of these mafia threads. So is this game observable?
You can spectate if you like, but what we really need right now is another player. Are you interested?
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@Ferbalot
@TheDebateMaster
Would either of you be interested in signing up?
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@Skipper_Sr
Interested in joining us for another game?
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I was pretty worried for the town there for a bit. My death PM told me that I would have been invited to a private chat if I hadn't died, so I knew Wylted was telling the truth. I felt like the mafia was probably going to win, but the town managed to pull through.
I agree with everyone else here -- Luna's role was interesting, but too OP in this particular game, especially as a 2x role. In any case, GG!
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Current Mafia:
Cerulean - Albums Mafia
Signups:
Pie - Inheritance Cycle Mafia
In the Hopper:
Lunatic- TBD
Casey Risk - ERB Mafia
Mharman - Gunplay Mafia
On Hold:
None
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