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@TNBinc
Speed defending Croc isn't really a huge tell, I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that he's scum if Croc is. Still, if Croc turns out to be scum (which is pretty likely imo) that at least warrants some suspicion and would be worth investigating.
As for Bear, he's been pretty mute on many issues thus far. Not sure we can categorize him one way or the other yet
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@Greyparrot
There is a high chance of him making it to an ELO situation regardless.
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@Speedrace
With Croc being as noncontributing as he is I doubt he would be Mafia killed until near the endgame... Frankly, I would rather not be stuck in a ELO situation with Croc as one of my only allies.
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@Speedrace
My point is that it is better than a no lynch if we have no other candidates. There is no scenario where town loses anything, and it at least helps us marginally by reducing suspects. If he turns out to be mafia (which, with his shoddy claim and shoddier behavior might be the case), even better.
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@Speedrace
Also, if you think Croc is town, you shouldn't vote him. There not being downsides to lynching him didn't justify lynching someone we think is town
If there are no major scumtells to anyone in the first day phase, lynching useless or lurky town members is the best thing we can do for information gathering and for reducing deadweight. Town loses nothing, and there is the upside that it narrows down potential suspects (whereas a NO VOTE would leave us back where we started).
I know I'm saying this as someone who no voted the first day phase of my first game, but I've been reading up on strategy lately and I think this is the best course of action.
That said, to quote my statement above:
If a better opportunity presents itself I will switch my vote in a heartbeat
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@SirAnonymous
This is a good summary of the case against Croc. I don't find the uncommon role point convincing, especially since Lunatic pointed out a bunch of uncommon roles that Pie has used in the past. I've been going back and forth on this lynch for a while. I don't like it because I don't think he's scum. On the other hand, we don't lose much by lynching him and we don't have any good alternatives. Basically, unless another wagon gets going, it's either Croc or a VTNL. There is one other point in favor of a Croc lynch: if we don't lynch him, there's a good chance we'll be having this exact discussion next DP. I think I could go along with his lynch based on that and his inactivity, but I don't want to pull the trigger just yet. We have 11.5 hours to go. If nothing better presents itself and there's still a wagon on him, I'll probably vote Croc.
Fair assessment. If a better opportunity presents itself I will switch my vote in a heartbeat, but as it stands Croc is best lynch candidate for all the reasons I laid out, plus the one you've outlined here.
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Ah yes. Good ol BoP. I like BoP, but I feel it is often used unnecessarily on this site (not mentioning any names...) I typically skip over BoP unless I feel it is required, as it does get pretty old quickly
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@Mharman
Sounds good. I'm interested to hear what Oro has to say
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@Lunatic
Oh. Well I can't comment all that much, I just took Supa's word for it cuz I'm a noob
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WHY CROC LYNCH
If there are no major scumtells, lynching useless town members is the best thing we can do for information gathering and for reducing deadweight.
If we define "Useless" as a member that does not contribute or have a useful role, Croc is the only one to fit the bill.
Croc has contributed less than nothing and Croc's role is useless to the town... but at the same time, he is potentially helpful to the mafia.
Supa makes additional points:
1. A 1x role could be used as a way for a tracker to not go ahead and track them in the night.2. A Voyeuar is such an uncommon role. Pie uses common roles3. His justification is weak
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES:
a. CROC IS TOWN AND WAS NOT LYING ABOUT ROLE
Town has lost virtually nothing and narrowed down potential suspects.
b. CROC IS TOWN AND LIED ABOUT ROLE
Lynch all Liars.
c. CROC IS MAFIA
Speaks for itself.
VTL Crocodile
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@Vader
Didn't say he was scum lmao. Just an example of someone who needs some pressure put on him. I mean the guy hasn't contributed anything.
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As for whether we should lynch or no lynch... I think it's too early to call.
We've got all of tomorrow. I think we should make use of that time and pressure certain people... For example, Bear has been awfully scummy with his absence. I get he had an excuse with the account hacking, but "I was thinking about some thoughts?" That just smells like bs to me, idk.
I get that we don't want to mislynch or become too aggressive, but we won't get anywhere if this keeps up.
To quote That1:
Pressuring... is good for DP1 town, creates responses, forces... a potential back and forth, allows/encourages further discussion based off of that. THe goal of DP1 should be to create posts and see how people behave, pressuring achieves that goal.
If by the end of tomorrow we've still got nothing, then we can no-lynch. I haven't historically supported lynching people without fair reasons, and I continue by that stance. As it stands, though, I don't feel like we should throw in the towel.
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@SirAnonymous
MisterChris: He seems to be playing the same way he did in his first game, which could be a good sign. However, he hasn't been mafia yet, so I don't feel comfortable classing him as town.
Wow you read through my first game? You're really devoted lmao. That was a convoluted mess but it was fun. Anyway, yeah I felt like the way I played town last game was pretty helpful so I'm trying to keep it up.
Oromagi: It's odd that he asked people to say which side they were on when he was Confederate, but I don't think it's enough to sus him. I'll keep an eye on him regardless.
Despite what Lunatic said, I thought this was a bit fishy too. He's on my radar even though he's still a townread to me.
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@Intelligence_06
What...? You've got to pick up on social cues better man. I wasn't being serious.
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@Mharman
That was a very high effort post. Label me impressed
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@SirAnonymous
By "testable" I mostly mean that if he gives us bullshit results with his ability, I think we'd be able to figure it out.
But yeah, you're right, it's not foolproof and we don't know anything for certain
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With Croc's new power role claim, it's probably time to call off the lynch for now and have him use his role tonight to see what happens.
As Oro said, it's testable and he can give us info.
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@Vader
I'm not even sure why the Croc lynch is happening besides what Lunatic says, and even that, there's such a weak reasoning behind it that I don't find it viable to lynch him at all.
I disagree personally on this one. I think Croc is by far the strongest lynch candidate of day 1. If not for being scum, for being a really lame player. He just doesn't care AT ALL that he is at 5/7. I'd be having a cow in his shoes. Plus he isn't contributing squat, so if there is no suitable alternative by the end of the day phase he is the best lynch candidate.
If he starts contributing and actually playing, or if he comes out with a valuable role, I'd reconsider.
Anyway, the rest of your analysis I totally agree with
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@Lunatic
Well not completely. You said we shouldn't swing the lynch hammer until he gave role. I don't want to bring it up to 6/7 to set up the lynch hammer. But yeah, basically same thing
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@Lunatic
Like I said, not arguing that we should end the phase early. I would like croc's role before he is potentially lynched anyway
Alright, but I won't vote Croc until he gives his role. That way, we can at least know if he is something super important.
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@Lunatic
I can understand wanting to use the whole phase, but the logic of "mafia will jump on the wagon hard" isn't that a good thing lol? If you think hammering and ending the phase early is scummy indicates a mafia member, seems if town you would want someone to do that to give you something to read into.
With the whole phase we run less risk of a mislynch. Not that mislynching Croc would be a huge loss, but given the extra time we could potentially uncover tells that lead to a more certain scum candidate.
You do make a good point though, if I bring it up to 6/7 that last person is highly sus.
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I have to agree with Lunatic on this one. Croc is virtually useless as town and very scummy in behavior. That said, I'll hold off on voting because as BearMan points out, mafia will jump on the wagon hard if I do. By the end of the day phase I'll likely be voting Croc though
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@SirAnonymous
I'm not aggressive either. I analyze and defend myself when I'm accused and that's basically my town meta summarized lol
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@Speedrace
Oh. I guess this is just my noobness talking then
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@SirAnonymous
I'm not sure Pie would have identical PM structure for everyone who was town anyway.
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@Speedrace
I think people are simply targeting him because he is lurky and anti-town behavior-wise. And honestly if we have no other leads by the end of the day phase I'm ok with lynching someone who contributes nothing
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@TNBinc
"win with the town vs win with town" has the exact same meaning semantically. Not sure why Oro had multiple versions of the statement in the first place
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@TNBinc
It was a given that everyone would declare they win with town, and by extension it was a given that there would be some liars too. The main reason we asked was to get some feel for a potential theme split.
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@BearMan
Yikes. Hopefully it doesn't affect anything
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I'm going to guess Lunatic's inactivity is due to hangover LOL
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@seldiora
You should start choosing some more even topics, that way you can crank out at least a few wins
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@oromagi
BTW Oro, if you didn't catch it:
Oromagi comments on my failure to answer the “Blue vs Grey” question. I actually did answer it here: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/4722/post-links/197183. I am UNION and win with town.
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@oromagi
I like to purchase things from local businesses as often as I can. I hate to see small businesses slowly choke from large corporations
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Day 1: 12:58 PM
- Off the bat, Pie confirms there is a theme split.
- Oromagi starts with a quiz on everybody’s affiliation.
Results so far, copy-pasted from SirAnon:
“Claims so far:
Supa: Union (good general in some aspects, hates him based onpersonal preference)
oro: Confederate
Chris: Union
Speed: Confederate
Bear: Union
TNBinc: Union (hethinks)
That1: Confederate
SirAnonymous: Union
Grey: hated town. I didn't think he specified which side.”
VERDICT 1: A Confederate/Union split does not make sense. It has to be something more nuanced, like a Heritage split, Success split, or War Crimes split.
VERDICT 2: Oromagi immediately displays pro-town behavior, as does SirAnon.
- My status as a centaur is immediately outed.
VERDICT: Neigh
- TNBinc asks nooby questions. Supa speculates that this is a town tell. SirAnon agrees.
VERDICT: Probably a noob town.
- BearMan says he had to deal with an account hack. Is this a coverup of discussing strategy with the mafia before speaking? Not sure. But for now I am willing to believe him.
- TNBinc starts lynch campaign on Bear.
“SupaDudz voted for BearMan to be removed. Then, Oro voted SupaDudz to be removed. Are Oro and BearMan mafia? It seems Oro is trying to "Protect" Bearman.”
While true, I would need more convincing.
VERDICT: No opinion
- Campaign on Croc starts due to his inactivity.
VERDICT: I smell something scummy.
- Oromagi comments on my failure to answer the “Blue vs Grey” question. I actually did answer it here: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/4722/post-links/197183. I am UNION and win with town.
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@oromagi
I will admit that I don't have much reading on Civil War as a subject... But you're doing a pretty good job convincing me to pick up that book.
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@oromagi
I see. That blows another hole in Confederate vs Union theory.
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@Speedrace
Oh no, I meant that Pie claimed a clear antagonist from the start despite being a mafia lol
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@Speedrace
I don't really know your Scum meta, so maybe that's true. Pie did it last game so that makes me wonder, though.
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