Total posts: 4,276
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@Earth
@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
Why not put Bullish or Casey on me? That's the next vote we'll have to do.
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@Vader
I am voting for Savant
I'm gonna be lynched, but you should abstain and go with the plan.
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If town loses, it's because we made ourselves lose. Which at this point seems like a likely outcome.
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I'm fine with the plan. I'll put my vote on me. My wagon should be publicly revealed once I die.
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I'm voting to lynch WyIted. If anyone is voting differently, say so. Town needs to vote as a block.
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Let's say there are 2 scum. The odds a random player is scum is 20%. The odds that two random players are town+scum (meaning scum is left alive) is 35%. So all else being equal, Owen has a 35% chance of being scum while WF only has a 20% chance of being scum.
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@whiteflame
@Bullish
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
I'm fine being lynched. One thing I don't understand is why Pie voted himself to tie the vote. Letting scum break the tie is like the worst possible outcome.
The fact that scum let Owen live increases the odds Owen is scum over random chance. See Monty Hall problem if you want to understand why. Scum will never choose to kill one of their own, hence a player who was passed over by scum is less likely to be town.
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@ILikePie5
Name of role and justification?
"Vote Oracle." Connection to disclosure should be pretty obvious.
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@ILikePie5
We all should just full claim at this point.
If I die, the players voting on my wagon are all revealed.
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
You don't need code to calculate this
Yes we do. It makes a difference that the scum gets a guaranteed town kill after 5 eliminations, and figuring that out by hand is messy. As complicated as the code seems, it's the simplest way to show this.
Did you account for mechanics like requiring more than the majority required to lynch or multiple votes for scum?
This is if a player is randomly selected and town agrees to all vote on them. Town outnumbers scum always, so their vote doesn't matter if town sticks together.
Technically we are supposed to do slightly worse than random chance. The point of the games invention was to illustrate how an informed minority (illuminati type org) could get the majority to work against their own interests.
I've heard of research suggesting the opposite, since people play as town more often so they have more experience that way. But this particular format may change that.
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@WyIted
Do you think we'll do worse than random chance? If so we should just pick a random target each time.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Bullish
@ILikePie5
I'll make this clear again since the code may have confused people:
For 2 scum, the odds of town victory with a random lynch target is 75%
For 3 scum, the odds of town victory with a random lynch target is 62%
For 4 scum, the odds of town victory with a random lynch target is 50%
This depends on town voting as a block, though. We can't risk letting mafia tie break either through voting or because votes themselves tie.
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@whiteflame
@Bullish
Sorry, I've been kind of busy.
VTL Savantfor posting code in the thread idk
This is why we can't have nice things lol. I simulated like 50,000 games and showed town wins most of the time if we make all our decisions randomly.
He posted code also to prove a math equation for some reason
Maybe read the code before jumping on a lynch train? Aren't you in IT? You can ask ChatGPT to explain it or something if you don't know Python.
VTL Owen. Luna has a reason for not posting much, he said he would be busy when he signed up. Owen's low activity is more glaring, and I want more posts from him.
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@whiteflame
Yeah if I was in minority I'd probably align myself with majority just because living players being aligned is less risk to town.
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@whiteflame
I mean their votes not aligning with town leading to ties
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@whiteflame
My biggest concern is with dead townies not being aligned. Maybe we all agree that dead town will vote along with majority of living players?
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@WyIted
It means if we make all our decisions randomly and there are 2 mafia, town has a 75% chance of winning. If there are 3 mafia, town has a 63% chance of winning.
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@RemyBrown
War is not required if the Canadians consent (which why wouldn't they?)
Most of them oppose joining the US.
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@ILikePie5
Code was wrong. I had a logic error. Here's the right version:
import numpy as np
def runSimulation(numMaf):
players = [0]*numMaf + [1]*(10-numMaf)
np.random.shuffle(players)
players = players[5:]
players.remove(1)
np.random.shuffle(players)
return players[0]
for i in range(2,5):
sum = 0
count = 0
for j in range(50000):
sum += runSimulation(i)
count += 1
print("For ", i, " scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is", sum/count)
Results are not as optimistic:
For 2 scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.75044
For 3 scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.62674
For 4 scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.5013
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@ILikePie5
Somehow our odds improve since mafia waits to kill a town. I'm having a hard time figuring that out intuitively, but code is what it is.
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@ILikePie5
I wrote a python script that simulates the game based on making all decisions randomly with the one night kill:
import numpy as np
def runSimulation(numMaf):
players = [0]*numMaf + [1]*(10-numMaf)
np.random.shuffle(players)
players = players[5:]
players.remove(1)
return players[3]
for i in range(2,5):
sum = 0
count = 0
for j in range(10000):
sum += runSimulation(i)
count += 1
print("For ", i, " scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is", sum/count)
You can run the code, check it for yourself, etc. Here's the result I get:
For 2 scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.8
For 3 scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.69952
For 4 scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.59962
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@AustinL0926
will end early if enough players submit a FINAL vote (which cannot be changed once submitted)
So there's no such thing as hammering, unless votes are specified as final?
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@ILikePie5
I’ll try to think of a game theory solution. Idk though
Remember that dead player still vote. If we all agree beforehand on each vote randomly, then the last person alive is a matter of random chance. If there are 2 mafia, we then have 80% odds of victory.
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@RemyBrown
"Why the US should start a war in its backyard with one of its closest allies."
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@Sidewalker
We have nukes and all it took to conquer the US was a charlatan who's only weapons were lies and conspiracy theories.
Leadership change is different. The country's still around, and we've had worse presidents before.
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@Sidewalker
That's what everyone thought about Germany in the 1930s.
Germany didn't have nukes, so they could be conquered.
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@Greyparrot
Cuba is still there.
Well, so is America. Like I said, it's too big to fail easily.
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@Sidewalker
Khrushchev was right.“We will take Americawithout firing a shot. We do not have to invade the U.S. We will destroy youfrom within”. - Nikita Khrushchev 1956
I think it's underestimated how much leeway America has to screw up and not collapse. The country survived some pretty awful leaders, slavery, the Jim Crow era, Civil War, and basically throwing money in a hole every year. Some things are too big to fail easily.
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@n8nrgim
Republicans get people back to work
No, DOGE fires people. So they work even less than peasants.
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@n8nrgim
If you're fine with a medieval peasant's quality of life, you can work fewer hours. If anything, unemployment is easier now with the existence of social safety nets.
fewer vacations
Do you think peasants were going on luxury cruises or something?
which political party do you think makes this situation worse?
Whichever one is reducing unemployment. Fortunately, government employees will be able to work less hours after DOGE fires them.
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@Greyparrot
VTL BARNEY
Scum hasn't jumped on this, so I'm pretty sure Barney is scum.
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@Best.Korea
Buddhism, Taoism, Confucianism
Those aren't the same thing
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@ILikePie5
Lunatic is telling the truth about sussing WF since DP1
I mean could just be a distancing play. Just because you sus someone doesn't mean they will be lynched, and you can always walk it back if they are on the chopping block.
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@Mharman
If someone voted for "WF" and scum hammered, could they say "I didn't vote for whiteflame, I voted for wf which isn't anyone's name"? Or if they misspell a username? Lol.
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