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@Lunatic
@Vader
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@AustinL0926
Ok, final list of reads. A bit different this time since
Vader - Slight town - Unlikely to fake claim gravedigger, since the existence or absence of a tracker or watcher will become apparent later in the game. However, they could be planning for a scum partner to confirm them. Or they could be a ninja and hence aware of the existence of a tracker/watcher. Or they could be doing a gambit. Those possibilities make this a slight read.
Lunatic - Slight town - Scum doesn't tend to hard push on day 1. If Luna is pushing GP and expects to get a mislynch, he knows this will put him on the chopping block tomorrow. And there's no reason for him to come out this strongly. With a player like Luna, I get that this could be WIFOM, but it doesn't usually go that way in my experience.
Casey - Null - Behavior is different from what I've seen before from them, which makes it difficult to tell whether it's coming from town or scum. Hard pushing GP based on ChatGPT isn't very strategic as town or scum.
Whiteflame/Wylted/Pie/Austin - Null - No strong behavioral tells.
Greyparrot - Lean scum - Role claim that typically belongs to scum.
I don't love the idea of town losing a role cop, but I also don't love the idea of scum having a role cop.
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@WyIted
There must be a way to do this without crashing the stock market.
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@ILikePie5
I’m a pretty direct person. My tone is always direct unless I’m purposely trying to get something out of someone
I might be thinking a bit too much about how I would phrase it. Whiteflame isn't seeing anything there, and the odds of you being the scum team are pretty low, so I'm probably overthinking this a bit. Null on you for now. At this point, most players seem equally scummy to me, which I don't love. I'll keep digging.
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@ILikePie5
Is it a normal practice of yours to scumread someone based on a hunch?
Yes, more so in other games than this one. I remember going 1v1 against you and Austin, and being absolutely certain Luna was scum at one point until I saw proof to the contrary. This is me going easy.
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@Lunatic
@Greyparrot
@Vader
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
Slight scum on Pie rn tbh. Going back through his posts, I sense a lot of just going through the motions.
Also there's this question he asked Mharman: "Have you given fake claims and/or fake roles to scum"
Mharman said he couldn't answer. There's a good chance Pie confirmed beforehand that Mharman couldn't answer and asked the question to look townie. And the way it's phrased makes it seem like Pie expects Mharman will give the answer. I don't think a townie would expect that and they would probably phrase it asking if Mharman would be able to answer that question (i.e. "are you able to tell us if...") I mean, when has a mod not said they gave fake claims in the game description and then came out and revealed they did when someone asked them? It doesn't make sense, and I don't think a townie would ask the question.
But as scum pretending to be town? Yeah, I think Pie would ask the question pretending he's sure to get an answer even though he knows he won't. I'm looking for examples in previous games, but right now all I have is a hunch.
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@n8nrgim
Trump is like an abusive husband who beats his wife, the American people, and the people think they deserve it and ask for more
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@Lunatic
I'm pointing out the benefit of not lynching Greyparrot today. Worst case scenario, he's scum, and we can lynch him tomorrow. But if he's town, he either identifies a scum member or narrows down the identity of the ninja, or scum has to spend a kill or roleblock on him. But if he's town and we lynch him today, we just wasted a lynch and eliminated a potential power role. I'm just saying it's something to consider.
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@Lunatic
If scum kill him, then he's town. That's the scenario you described.
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@Lunatic
Assuming mafia would even let him live.
Still avoids a mislynch.
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@Lunatic
@Greyparrot
@Vader
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
Someone pointed out that if there's a gravedigger, there's probably a ninja. If there is, role cop could be used to find them.
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@Vader
I have an FoS on Austin. I just find it hard for him to put me fully in the town pile.
You're sussing Austin for thinking you are town? Explain how that works.
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@Casey_Risk
This is all just WIFOM...Claiming a scummy role and relying on WIFOM to get away with it is not that uncommon in this game
This reasoning is also WIFOM. It's assuming scum would bet on WIFOM thinking and therefore be willing to claim a scummy role. That's just another iteration of WIFOM.
That said, this is not a typical case and I don't think Grey put that much thought into his claim. He claims first thing every game, and it's not strategic. Which is why I'm inclined to take his scummy role at face value.
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@Vader
Luna atm for his some of his reads. I think him being eager to pair me and GP as a scum team comes off sus and a bit too jumpy.
Not really imo. Townies suspect people of being in teams together all the time. GP and Austin people assumed WF and I were teamed up the last game because we agreed on reads. All scum Luna had to do was hang back and not contribute much, and that's what I'd expect if he was scum this game.
Slight town lean on Luna for me, he's being way more proactive than last time.
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@WyIted
On reread Casey does state her role mechanically makes GPs less likely
In context, not really: "As a town role, it's typically used in games where there are many roles which could easily belong to either side, such as Jailkeeper or Rolestopper. Tough to say whether this is that kind of game yet, though based on my own role, I'm not convinced."
Casey isn't saying their role doesn't work with GP's, just that their role doesn't make GP's role more likely.
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@Casey_Risk
I don't think it's helpful to think of the game in terms of percentages like this.
Then let me put it another way: we've never, as far as I can recall, lynched scum day phase 1 because of a single scum tell. We've lynched a lot of townies though.
Though I will agree that there's no need to rush through this DP when not everyone has even posted yet.
That's really all I'm saying.
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@Lunatic
If GP is scum I'm guessing his partner is supa.
If you are town, the odds of guessing a scum team in the first day phase are just over 7%. Even if they have some information to base the guess on, I'd be surprised if a town player could guess the scum team with over 10% accuracy day 1. I've rarely seen anyone pick out a scum team correctly when neither scum had been confirmed. So voting based on "buddy" behavior is basically shooting in the dark as far as I'm concerned.
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@Lunatic
If we think he's a good option, is it even worth fishing for more claims? I personally don't think so.
I know I started the GP train, but I don't want to tunnel too much on one player for the entire day phase, especially this early. Town-on-town violence screwed us over in the last game. Every other player starts with 75% odds of being town from my perspective (and yours, if you are town). Even if GP is a bit scummy, his odds of being town could still be over 50%, and even if he's a good lynch by the end of the day phase, I'd still like to observe behavior a bit more.
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@Lunatic
The logic is if he was a mafia rolecop he would still probably claim rolecop.
Yeah, especially because Greyparrot claims first thing every game, with little tact or strategy behind it. We should expect scum Greyparrot to come out and claim a scum role.
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@Casey_Risk
highlighting key threats
This is a better justification for role cop from a scum perspective. From town perspective, you have to know the player's alignment to know if they're a threat.
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@whiteflame
That means there's a town Tracker/Watcher or some other variant in play.
For this reason, I don't see scum claiming gravedigger unless they have some information about roles or they're making some weird gambit. It will become apparent later if there's no tracker or watcher, at which point we can put Vader on the chopping block, but he's in my town pile for now.
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@Mall
there are young boys who you call victims that enjoy themselves in these situations
Again, same with drugs and joyriding.
it is possible there's actually no harm done compared to a predator molester abuser situation.
Better not to risk harm at all.
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@Mall
Something isn't true by popular opinion or popular vote.
Trump (the guy you just berated people for not supporting) won the popular vote.
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
@AustinL0926
Up to you to decide which of us is lynched. Though I imagine whichever of us survives will be first on the chopping block tomorrow. Reminder, of course, that I'm the only claimed town protective role.
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@Greyparrot
If you think it's me or WF, why risk losing the only town protective? I already said I'm wiling to lynch whiteflame. You can lynch me tomorrow.
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@AustinL0926
WF? Gambler's fallacy..? Surely you know better...?
I thought WF was implying that having RB role last game would increase the odds I fake claim it this game. It doesn't make much sense, but I think it might be bad wording as opposed to being scummy.
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Does anyone else want to claim a protective role? And if no one does, what are the odds that there would be no protective role at all?
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@AustinL0926
If you think it's me and WF, lynch WF. Then lynch me tomorrow if you want, but I'm not about to let town use a protective role.
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
@AustinL0926
You were my second-to-top townread yesterday. Hence why I jailed you. I would have jailed Pie, but he claimed Paranoid Gun Owner.
POE relies on having townreads, and shifting nullreads to scumreads as a result. Savant's main reason for scumreading GP and Vader comes down to POE, which doesn't make sense when he has two nullreads and a leantown.
I gave reasons for scum reads beyond POE. Grey not contributing and Vader's behavior this day phase. Honestly I've been waffling on Vader and Grey since my post, and I'm willing to go after WF since we need to lynch someone. Only people I'm sure about are me and Luna.
VTL Whiteflame
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@Vader
When we put pressure on him for some of his DP1 behaviorals, he pointed out a key thing saying, so you wanna scum read me in the last game for one behavior but scum read me for doing the opposite. That would actually indicate he is scum.
Explain
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
Banana - Even if they are a 3P, they don't align with towns goal so they are scum by default
We want third parties on the town's side, driving them away is antitown regardless of your affiliation. Surprised grey overlooked this when he just accused me and wf of wanting to lynch third party.
At this point, neither Greyparrot nor Vader is making sense. Why is Vader overlooking Grey's odd behavior? Why is Grey overlooking Vader's antitown behavior? Either they both have tunnel vision, or there's a scum there. I could honestly vote for either of them at this point, but I'd like a full claim from Vader if he hasn't given one already.
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Trump posted on Truth Social:
"The airplane was on a perfect and routine line of approach to the airport. The helicopter was going straight at the airplane for an extended period of time. It is a CLEAR NIGHT, the lights on the plane were blazing, why didn't the helicopter go up or down, or turn. Why didn't the control tower tell the helicopter what to do instead of asking if they saw the plane. This is a bad situation that looks like it should have been prevented. NOT GOOD!!!"
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@Best.Korea
I mean not looking good because she'll probably be convicted. But her sentence might not be long. I guess you're right about aging in jail though.
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@Best.Korea
prison for life
Unlikely. She'll probably be out and raping again in a few years.
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@Best.Korea
"The legal definition of rape is when a person intentionally penetrates another's vagina, anus or mouth with a penis, without the other person's consent."
In plenty of places, rape is just defined as sexual intercourse without consent. And even when it's not, it's still statutory sexual assault. Not looking good for the teacher.
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@AustinL0926
Now that I've revealed myself, it would help if you said the message you got.
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@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
He said he was blocked. I suspect he got a message saying he was jailed but didn't want to give too much away.
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@whiteflame
He's in PoE due to my other townreads, but he doesn't come off as particularly scummy. That's why I have him as null.
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@Greyparrot
Did you see that? savant and WF want to 1v1 us...
Um no. I'm not even sure whiteflame is town.
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@Vader
My read on Greyparrot? He was pretty quiet the first day, and I could easily see his claim coming from scum.
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@Greyparrot
whoa, that was some fast team coordination...
You and Vader? I agree.
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@Greyparrot
I don't want to lynch 3rd party. And what gives you the idea that wf does?
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