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@Mharman
@AustinL0926
drops it AS SOON AS HE SEES THAT WYLTED CAN HELP LYNCH ME
WyIted had already voted for you.
I recommend Savant and Wylted unvote for sec
Fine
Unvote
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
I gave a lot of calculated reasoning as to why both of them can look town or sus depending on the angle you’re using to view them. You pull one line out at the end that I used as a basis for distrusting my own read on Austin and then just assume I’m only being instinctual? Wtf dude?
It wasn't just that one line, it seemed like you were focusing a lot on Austin's behavior. And that one line came immediately after you saying you leaned more toward suspecting Mharman, so I did assume it was a major reason for your decision.
I pointed out that Mharman’s timing of his claim is sus after pointing out that it does fit, maybe a little too neatly, with Luna’s results which were given just beforehand. What’s odd about that, exactly, especially when I said I would likely have bought the claim more if he had claimed before Luna?
This seems like you're starting with the conclusion that Mharman is sus. If his results fit with Luna's tracker, then he's suspicious (according to you). If they don't, then he's still suspicious. This is why I said Luna should have made Mharman claim first. Other than having the only claimed town protective role, I'm not sure what else Mharman could have done to convince you he was town.
In that case, there’s a 50% chance he committed the NK and therefore would have visited JoeBob. Either he or his partner, if there was a Redirect, would have visited me and you. Why do you think he visited Luna?
Sry, I don't totally understand how redirect works. But yeah, the fact that he visited himself only makes me less suspicious of him.
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@Lunatic
Keep in mind that Mharman's role can theoretically be confirmed. Austin will never be confirmed.
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One thing I thought was kind of suspicious is that Austin admitted to lying after Luna said he thought Austin was town and lying. It's like a tactic that cops use when they want a suspect to admit to part of a crime. "Admit you did [x] and you won't get in trouble." Luna is the cop, Austin is the suspect.
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@Earth
Maybe I was too harsh on you. You could be town, so I'd like to talk this out more. I responded to WF's reasoning above, and I'd like to hear your thoughts.
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@WyIted
Ugh, you're probably right. If the team is WF+Earth, voting Austin at least doesn't help them. And if they're both defensive of Austin, he could easily be partners with one of them.
VTL Austin
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@whiteflame
My biggest reason for sussing WF was that his reasoning seemed a bit contrived. I'll respond to his block of text, and maybe he can clear things up. Given that Mharman and Austin may both be innocent, this will read a bit weird, but here goes.
I don't think he'd be willing to push back that hard on WyIted's misclaim if he was just guessing she wasn't in the game
I don't really get this. If Austin had a fake claim and knew Maya wasn't in the game, he has no choice but to push back because otherwise he gets lynched. Also, a dreamer role doesn't really fit the theme even if it fits that character. I'm also not sure Casey would put both Mia and Maya in the game because it's confusing, but who knows.
My gutread on Austin, like it has been since DP1, is that he's town in spite of all the weirdness with his claim then and even the OMGUS - honestly, I just don't think Austin would respond this way to being sussed.
WF relies on a lot of instinct here, which seems like it would be easy for him to lie about if he was scum. I wouldn't expect a player as calculated as whiteflame to base this much of his decision on a gut feeling, especially when Austin has made mistakes before as scum.
Mharman's claim comes as awfully convenient given the circumstances
This is an odd way of looking at it, because it seems mostly like a chicken-egg issue. Mharman's doctor role seems convenient because it fits Luna's results. Maybe it fits those results because Mharman is in fact a doctor. Given that scum targeted JB, they could have targeted anyone, and Mharman knew he had a power role. Waiting to claim with a power role is just a smart move. Mharman's actions make sense from his perspective. Also, if Mharman was scum, there's a >50% chance he would have visited me or JoeBob or Luna.
Also, we have no other protective role claims. Maybe that's convenient, but it's not something Mharman can control. Phoenix is almost certainly in the game.
Overall, WF is focusing more on behavior than I would like, when the mechanics of the situation come pretty close to confirming Mharman.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
you don’t have to worry about a quick hammer from me.
Ok, WF may not be rushing to vote as quickly as I thought. This could be him backtracking, but it reads genuine. I think a WF/Earth team is possible, but I'm not as sure as I was a few minutes ago.
Maybe Luna or Austin can say what they think the chances are of WF and Earth being a team. I feel like I'm getting tunnel vision.
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@whiteflame
If I wanted Mharman dead, I could’ve (and still could) hammer at any point, so I guess I’m opportunistic but also projecting uncertainty and not taking advantage of the obvious opportunity?
You had no idea I was about to jump onto a WF+Earth theory, and you are a very cautious player. I think you were likely going to hammer soon, but you didn't want to be on the chopping block next dp for hammering too fast.
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@Lunatic
Look at it this way. If Mharman is scum, surely his partner would be defending him. The only suspect for that right now is me, and I'll defend myself if it comes to that. But I don't M's partner being WF, Earth, or Austin. This means Mharman is probably town from my POV.
If Mharman flips town, Lua will be killed at night and Austin will almost certainly be lynched tomorrow. WF and Earth can't lynch him now, since this gives Mharman an opportunity to prove his role. It's in their interest to waste a lynch on Mharman now, since this buys them the exact amount of time they need to win.
VTL Earth
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@WyIted
I might be a coward, but I think Austin has clearly been acting weirder than Mharman. The fact that WF and Earth both want to go after the latter makes me think they want to get rid of a town power role. I can see where Luna is coming from, and Austin is in a desperate position...but Earth and WF seem way too opportunistic here.
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@whiteflame
Do not hammer yet. I want to rethink this.
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Especially this comment by Earth that seems like it's setting up Austin to be mislynched tmrw:
"Mhar is in my POE and him and Austin has been at each other's throats all game. I'm convinced that one must be scum."
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@Lunatic
Plz unvote before WF can hammer. I think we may be going after two town players.
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@AustinL0926
Unvote
Austin, plz unvote. Earth and WF's actions make a lot of sense if they are a scum team and want to kill the doctor.
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@Earth
Mhar is in my POE and him and Austin has been at each other's throats all game. I'm convinced that one must be scum.
Maybe lynch Austin first then, instead of our only protective role?
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@Lunatic
Let's lynch Austin, and have maharman protect you. If he fails, we can lynch him. I doubt redirector is more than 1x.
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@Lunatic
You know it’s true
If it is, that means you should revaluate your read on mharman.
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We can't afford to waste a lynch either. What if both mharman and Austin are innocent?
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@Lunatic
I may be the only remaining deciding factor to even get mharman lynched period.
Dude don't tunnel like this. This is the same thing you would criticize me for doing.
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@Lunatic
The justification for him being doctor is that "Wright saves people" even though there are a ton of medical characters in the show. So on paper it screams sus. The only thing holding me back is that casey is a new mod so "saving" people could be used loosely in this case.But Wright also fits in very well with a lawyer role, which I assume there is a laywer or framer if there is a justice.
Ok, now I think I understand the case against Mharman a bit better. Still though, we have 1 protective role claim and like 2 confirmed investigative roles that aren't Austin. It also makes sense for Casey to put Phoenix Wright in the game simply because he's the MC and maybe that's why the doctor role got him as a justification. Whatever the theme split is, I think Wright is more likely to be on the town side.
And that's not even analyzing behavior. Austin lying and making opportunistic accusations might not automatically make him scum, but I don't see them making him more likely town either. Mharman makes a bit more sense, though. I can see doctor self-healing, because they know they have the most important (or one of the most important) role(s).
All of this is to say that Austin comes across to me as more suspicious than Mharman, and I think you are tunneling based too much on your assumption of what Austin's playstyle is. And where you do sus Austin, I think it's for the wrong reasons.
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@Lunatic
Earth has been town reading austin from the get go
Doesn't surprise me.
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I wouldn't be surprised if we basically have this game solved. New mods have a tendency to put too many confirmable roles, and scum only wins those games if the town starts overthinking.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Mharman
@WyIted
Stream of consciousness my POE is Mhar, WF, Savant.
Looks like Austin and Earth decided to try and turn town against Mharman and I.
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@Lunatic
I don't think mhar-mhar will be the lynch, so you may have to go with us on Austin.
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@Lunatic
Earth and Austin are the only two in my POE we can lynch. I'm not about to go after the only town protective role.
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@Lunatic
it surprises me they would find a dreamer more of a threat
Probably because Austin is lying
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@Lunatic
I'd be fine lynching Earth, but I don't know if you could get others to agree to it.
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@Lunatic
It makes 0 sense for scum austin to not just fake dreamer results coming into dp2.
If Austin is town, we'd expect scum to interfere with his results. So as scum, he'd look suspicious if he had them.
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@whiteflame
How many times do you want me to say it?
I mean agreeing that POE is Austin, you, and Earth. Not just saying that you are in it. But maybe I should have been more clear.
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@Mharman
I find it kind of telling that no one in the POE (WF, Austin, Earth) is willing to admit that they are the POE as of now.
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@Owen_T
How do I ask people questions?
Like this:
Have you stopped beating your wife?
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I might be jumping to conclusions, but does anyone really dispute that those three players are the POE as of now?
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
Scum is in Austin, WF, Earth. (Or Austin and WyIted, though that's unlikely.) Right now, WF and Earth should be sussing Austin like crazy. If they are town, they know 100% that Austin is scum.
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@WyIted
You can find a copy of the policy here
No I can't, the link doesn't work.
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@Mharman
Please waive on your ability for the rest of the game.
Of course. It's of little use to town anyway.
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POE is Austin, Earth, WF. Only possible flaw is if WyIted and Austin are a team and planned that Mia/Maya thing together. It's unlikely, but lynching Austin first either (a) get scum, or (b) town confirms Wylted. Also, if scum was Earth + WF, I doubt Earth would be coming out and defending Austin.
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I don't know why Austin would claim day 1, making his role effectively useless.
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@Mharman
So there’s obviously a ninja.
Why? And if there is, couldn't you be the ninja that killed JoeBob?
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In before WF claims a protective role to cause a mislynch.
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Also what are the chances the three people Austin accuses day 1 all happen to be town? Less than 50% according to my calculations.
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@Lunatic
@WyIted
Whiteflame's response makes sense imo if scum is Austin + WF. I think Mharman is probably town.
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@Lunatic
Wait, even more. One scum visited Austin, and one visited Luna/wf. Or Austin is scum. Either Mharman is clear, or Austin is the scum (and Mharman accusing him makes him townie.)
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@Lunatic
I'd expect scum to panic and claim fast. And also to not be playing on a phone.
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@Lunatic
Wouldn't scum be more likely to visit the town player they are killing or disabling? We know scum visited Austin and JoeBob (or Austin is scum), and Mharman visited neither of those two.
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@Lunatic
He wouldn't have
Should have said you copped him guilty lol, that would get him to claim.
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