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Sorry I've been in and out of meetings with recruiters for jobs so inactivity has kinda plagued me. I am going to give my full reads soon
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@ILikePie5
I thnk I lean town from there reaction to GP. Haven't seen her that attacking of a player versus in scum it was much more laidback.
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I have an FoS on Austin. I just find it hard for him to put me fully in the town pile. Even coming from me I am pretty weary in putting an SoP is solid town claims. The only reason I was skeptical of Pie's SOP last game cuz I thought having an PGO and a Bookie with 2 killing rules was mechanically off but I still had a lean town on him but my top town read.
Even in the last game, he's trying was lean town on Pie when Pie did more behaviorally than I personally think I have
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Honestly I think Pie's deduction and reasoning is valid and he seems like he's thinking from the perspective of a townie. He's being pretty consistent with his reads and putting thought into votes versus rushing to vote. Town play from him from what I've seen so far so I'm comfy throwing him into my lean town
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@ILikePie5
He also cracks under pressure like he did in your game
Ok this is going to be defensive but I also got RB'd in NP1 and Austin got ressurected. I was screwed from there but to a certain extent I see your point
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@ILikePie5
Right now my strongest reads are only town reads atm. No one is has a scum read but I do have a FoS on Luna atm for his some of his reads. I think him being eager to pair me and GP as a scum team comes off sus and a bit too jumpy.I agree that jumping to link you and GP is a bit premature. However, there is some OMGUS here from your side as well
Yeah I know it's pretty OMGUS but I think I would've reacted the same if it was someone else too
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@Savant
Slight town lean on Luna for me, he's being way more proactive than last time.
Grain of salt with my Luna read. I haven't seen town Luna in a while my reads could be rusty tbh. I know I've played a lot with him but I'm getting older.
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Right now my strongest reads are only town reads atm. No one is has a scum read but I do have a FoS on Luna atm for his some of his reads. I think him being eager to pair me and GP as a scum team comes off sus and a bit too jumpy.
Lean Town
Casey
WF
WF
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WF feels town to me. Definetly a lot more attention into making more detailed post and deep analyzing of behaviors and theme. This is how WF plays as town fmpov
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Honestly though, I think Casey's play has been so different from what I've seen her as scum and town that I kind of have to put her in my town pile.
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@Lunatic
Normally when I'm scum I tend to not blindly buddy, maybe in past games but recently not as much.
Anyway, it just doesn't seem right for Casey as described "buttons" to go off right away. Even with the chatgpt and all that, is it really that big of a deal that it is scum/town indicative? Idk. It also doesn't align with Casey's scum play from what I have seen in the past. I don't want to read too hard into it and assume Executioner/Joker, but it is just something to be pointed out
Anyway, it just doesn't seem right for Casey as described "buttons" to go off right away. Even with the chatgpt and all that, is it really that big of a deal that it is scum/town indicative? Idk. It also doesn't align with Casey's scum play from what I have seen in the past. I don't want to read too hard into it and assume Executioner/Joker, but it is just something to be pointed out
As for Grey, I don't understand why we are all so eager to jump to a lynch right now. The DP just started.
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Aight my activity has been on and off because I'm catching up with school work and I've been doing a lot of stuff on the marketing side of the Sports app because of the Luka Doncic trade so my activity has windled but I am going to catch up a bit
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Wow. I think that's the most shocked I've been at a trade ever. What a terrible move too. My god
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I don't inherently read Greyparrot as scummy for the role cop claim. It is a bit odd but I'll wait to see how it affects behavior
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@Lunatic
Something about Casey's vote throws me off.Why?
I just don't like how it was such a snap vote on Greyparrot on very little besides a claim. The fact that she voted so quickly for is not even like normal behavior that I've seen. Usually from what I've seen she generally eases into a DP, even as scum, and starts to build her reads. This deviates completely from it.
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SOP claim:
I am Killcam. I am a mechanic that allows you to see what the opponent saw when they killed you.
I am a Gravedigger. I passively appear to visit any player that died in the night
I win with the town
I win with the town
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@Lunatic
GG man you were the only one that really doubted my justice claim lol
Yeah lol. But after the events of DP2 and so forth it made really hard to believe you were lying
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@Lunatic
Luck point 3: Banana being third party. WTF?! I was planning on claiming justice from the get go, and hoping to get at least one mislynch, and hopefully being able to pull off an execute before town called my bs and lynched me. When banana claimed third party and every one was letting her off the hook at first I thought the plan was screwed, but since everyone thought I was town confirmed after that, it actually worked in my favor.
This honestly was the biggest catalyst to me. The odds that a 3p gets chosen from start with your role made it very hard to scum read. Especially if there was a WF lynch in DP3, I would've honestly shot Austin and the game would've ended (i think)
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I went out last night otherwise I would've tried to stop the Austin lynch. But either way I didn't think Luna and WF team was in the cards after that. Well played. I thought Luna's claim was a bit weird but the pressure he was putting on WF made me believe either or
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@Lunatic
Unless… maybe… Whiteflame redirects a kill if he’s town? If you vig him he technically should survive if town and he can redirect the kill towards Austin, since at that point it would have to be him since you’d be confirmed if not right? We would still be fucked though by banana because she would vote with scum or could be scum. My head hurts. Maybe there isn’t a game breaking solve here
No matter what we are fucked and town loses if we get to a DP4 IMO assuming Banana is telling the truth.
here is the math. 4v2 or a 3v2v1.
WF is scum. 4v1 or a 3v1v1
NK on whoever, I use my vig shot and hit scum, 3vo or 2v0v1 DP3 and town wins.
We lose in DP4 no matter what happens tonight if Banana tells the truth. The only way town win this game is if we lynch WF he's scum and I hit the second mafia.
here is the math. 4v2 or a 3v2v1.
WF is scum. 4v1 or a 3v1v1
NK on whoever, I use my vig shot and hit scum, 3vo or 2v0v1 DP3 and town wins.
We lose in DP4 no matter what happens tonight if Banana tells the truth. The only way town win this game is if we lynch WF he's scum and I hit the second mafia.
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Ways this ends badly for town
- WF is town and Banana is telling the truth, 2v2v1. Scum win
- WF is scum and Banana is telling the truth and I shoot town at night. 1v1v1
These are the only ways that town could lose based on this scenario. But if WF flips town, I have no doubt in mind that Banana is scum. Austin and Luna team at this point is impossible. By POE it has to Luna and Banana as scum if WF turns town
- WF is scum and Banana is telling the truth and I shoot town at night. 1v1v1
These are the only ways that town could lose based on this scenario. But if WF flips town, I have no doubt in mind that Banana is scum. Austin and Luna team at this point is impossible. By POE it has to Luna and Banana as scum if WF turns town
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@Lunatic
I can see wf/austin too, but I also am not a huge fan of your claim either. And Banana could be scum too IG. I don't like how she immediately voted like that. But I dont know who she would be a scum team with.Everyone is sus. Whiteflame and vader cant work cuz they are both vig variants, doesnt make sense with balance. If one of you is scum then the other is town, I dont see you as a pair.Austins claim is sus because with my role and earths role thats a lot of investigative power, and we unfortunately have no results to confirm the action.Banana is sus because she could just be scum and lying about the TP, and the way she voted whiteflame makes me suspicious that she was the one "framing" him, but she could also just be right and calling a duck a duck, but idk.Everyone is sus atm except wylted.
Yep you pretty much hit the nail on the head for it.
I just think the pairs right now are either Austin / WF or Banana / you.
I am pretty positive the WF is scum and his claims reiterates that, but this makes something very interesting that I want to discuss though. I think I know what your answer will be but I want to see
I guessed that whiteflame would be the next lynch this DP. Meaning that I will get a vig shot in the NP.
Right now it is either a 3v2v1 or a 4v2. If WF is lynched and turns scum, we are hypothetically at 3v1v1 or 4v1. I could use my vig shot that I get from the NP. Worst case scenario it's a 2v1 and best case scenario town wins
Here is the tricky thing though, if WF is Town and Banana is telling the truth, we lose this game. BUT, if WF is town and Banana is lying, then it's a 3v2 going into the NP and with me getting the shot from guessing WF's lynch, i would shoot banana.
I am pretty positive the WF is scum and his claims reiterates that, but this makes something very interesting that I want to discuss though. I think I know what your answer will be but I want to see
I guessed that whiteflame would be the next lynch this DP. Meaning that I will get a vig shot in the NP.
Right now it is either a 3v2v1 or a 4v2. If WF is lynched and turns scum, we are hypothetically at 3v1v1 or 4v1. I could use my vig shot that I get from the NP. Worst case scenario it's a 2v1 and best case scenario town wins
Here is the tricky thing though, if WF is Town and Banana is telling the truth, we lose this game. BUT, if WF is town and Banana is lying, then it's a 3v2 going into the NP and with me getting the shot from guessing WF's lynch, i would shoot banana.
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FMPOV, I feel like it has to be WF and Austin. The last 2 to claim with claims that a bit questionable to say the least. I think Austin's claim is a bit OP and honestly, a bit easy to make up to a certain extent. I think as scum I claimed it one time in a game. It's one that is easily to make up, and the fact that he has a flavor to it makes me way more suspicious. I also think the fact we had a 1x Justice already in this game (assuming Luna is telling the truth) makes it really hard for me to believe.
I also find WF claim very weird too. It pretty much functions as a passive Escort for NK's. This claim seems pretty easy to fakeclaim for the most part and I think the claim fits a bit too perfectly with the justifications.
The only way that this isn't WF/Austin is if Luna/Banana pulled off an insane gambit. If that's the case, then hats off to both of them. But I think the balls to imply either, or, are scum and then to pull the 3p play just seems like too ballsy of a play to make in this game. But I could deffo see Luna doing it though. The fact that right after Luna posted and banana claimed the 3p strikes me so off.
I feel like the obvious answer is WF/Austin and it's staring me straight in the face but I am trying to too much to read all options. My biggest scum read throughout this game has been WF for a multitude of reasons.
I also find WF claim very weird too. It pretty much functions as a passive Escort for NK's. This claim seems pretty easy to fakeclaim for the most part and I think the claim fits a bit too perfectly with the justifications.
The only way that this isn't WF/Austin is if Luna/Banana pulled off an insane gambit. If that's the case, then hats off to both of them. But I think the balls to imply either, or, are scum and then to pull the 3p play just seems like too ballsy of a play to make in this game. But I could deffo see Luna doing it though. The fact that right after Luna posted and banana claimed the 3p strikes me so off.
I feel like the obvious answer is WF/Austin and it's staring me straight in the face but I am trying to too much to read all options. My biggest scum read throughout this game has been WF for a multitude of reasons.
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@Lunatic
Yeah I had to dumb it down even for myself. I actually had to watch the battle to see what they were saying too LOL. Very weird overall but I get it.
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@Lunatic
He kills people when he tells them how they die...
He doesn't kill Catherine because he inacurretly predicted how she died....
He doesn't kill Catherine because he inacurretly predicted how she died....
Thus, Bookie
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@Lunatic
The claim comes from the beginning part of the DP where it's a 1v4 and Ivan the Terrible is telling all these historical figures how they did and echoing them away. However when Ivan the Terrible meets Catherine, Ivan the Terrible tried to give a horse to Catherine because there was a strong rumor that she died by having intercourse with a horse, so she calls the horse story shit and declines the gift.
The PM was worded a bit weird but I understand.
It's a weird connection but I see
The PM was worded a bit weird but I understand.
It's a weird connection but I see
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I need to think about this because I am mulling over 2 possibilities right now, but I want to wait for WF to claim
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@Lunatic
Alright. I am going to claim then since it's DP3. Sorry went out last night for some drinks with friends.
I am Alexander the Great vs Ivan the Terrible. The rap battles becomes this 1v4 with Alexander killing all of them except Catherine who he gives a horse too, except she says, that horse story is a pile of shit.”and now you must now predict who will die by public lynching.
Thus I am the Bookie. Once per night I get to chose who I think will be the lynch next DP...if I predict correctly I get a 1x vig to use.
NP1 I predicted Luna would be the lynch. I just felt that with some suspicions on you I felt someone may investigate or push you more.
I predicted this lynch too but I won't say who I predicted
Thus I am the Bookie. Once per night I get to chose who I think will be the lynch next DP...if I predict correctly I get a 1x vig to use.
NP1 I predicted Luna would be the lynch. I just felt that with some suspicions on you I felt someone may investigate or push you more.
I predicted this lynch too but I won't say who I predicted
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I am going to give a cumulation of my reads and summarize what I am thinking
First off my strongest town read is Luna.
First thing is first, I think it safe to assume that scum knew that Pie's role was a Even Night role. I can't think of any reason for them to target Pie other than getting some info that Pie's role exists. The only way Luna could have known a 3p in the game if he asked the question. I don't think Luna as scum would do this and the best bet for him would probably to try and to find a town role that is in the game to fake claim and combine. It just makes no sense for them to use their 1 extra role asking to ask if there's a 3p role. If he did, well then wow GG, we are fucked
My second strongest town read is Wylted
Wylted usually likes to communicate the most in the forums in the DP and is arguably one of the strongest DP players that play on the site. He does it as town and does it at scum. Wylted basically loses a huge tool he has at his disposal. I know that Pie did something similiar, but Pie relies on his NP actions as scum and WIFOM rather than convincing town. That's wylted's strongsuit and I don't think he'd give it up. Not to mention he hasn't acted out of the ordinary besides taking a DART break, but he does that. His gamestyle and gameplay and thoughts allign with his town play
My third strongest town read is Greyparrot
My third strongest town read is Greyparrot
While I will say that GP isn't as town as in normal games just due to the nature of his role, but when you look at his meta, playstyle, and beliefs as town, he is following what he normally does. Also in a game where scum aren't given fake claims (I'm assuming they aren't from the OP's and Casey's past game, quote if wrong), it seems like such a weird and vague claim. Granted this gives him some leverage as scum because there is no reason for him to be targetted for behavior, but I also think he would've claimed something a lot better.
So, with that in mind I am going to go to my biggest scum reads
Banana - scum = not aligned with town. No matter what way you look at it. Even if they are a 3P, they don't align with towns goal so they are scum by default. They MAY NOT be mafia
My biggest scum read in Whiteflame
Besides POE, and my behavior analysis on him that I stated with him, I am also thinking about the NK and what WF would do as scum. I could definetly see WF as scum being paranoid about Earth asking for conditions on Pie's PGO and asking if there are any roles that are a x Night in the game. I could definetly also see Whiteflame silencing Wylted to draw out some of his wild convincing. I've played a few games with WF, but killing Pie because of his town read and how he'd have to be alive to NP3 if they didn't kill him. Whiteflame is a great player but I've seen him as scum try to play cautiously versus taking risks and letting it out. I remember in TUF Mafia that when me and him were scum, it took a good amount of convincing from him to try and make a gambit in NP3.
If Banana DOES flip 3p, my second scum read would be Savant
If Banana DOES flip 3p, my second scum read would be Savant
I really just get a weird vibe from Savant. I do want to see what Austin has to say about his "Jailkeep" but if his action got prevented, it does give credit but behavioral his reads just feel very stiff. I asked him for more elaboration on his reads versus the short sentences and he kinda just doubled down on the shortness. When we put pressure on him for some of his DP1 behaviorals, he pointed out a key thing saying, so you wanna scum read me in the last game for one behavior but scum read me for doing the opposite. That would actually indicate he is scum.
Austin is in my POE but for now I'm null. I don't like how quickly he was to write off Savant as town despite believing Banana is a 3P.
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@Savant
Hasn't contributed as much as he could have.
Can you give some more detail to why you think this? Because I honestly 100% disagree
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@Savant
This isn't affiliation indactive once so ever. This is more of me being able to post on time
Here are some games where I was scum where I didn't "take control"
https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/10920-invincible-day-phase-2?page=2https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/11684-shocking-tv-moments-dp2?page=1
These are all relatively recent too. I'm sure you can take a dive into my games and see this too. 80% of the time it's just when the DP gets sent and when I can response. The POE, yes makes sense if you are town, but the reasoning is pretty lazy
These are all relatively recent too. I'm sure you can take a dive into my games and see this too. 80% of the time it's just when the DP gets sent and when I can response. The POE, yes makes sense if you are town, but the reasoning is pretty lazy
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@whiteflame
This was kind of the response I was looking for to a certain degree. I just noticed a pattern in a lot of your DP1 games you tend to reply and be engaged in more behavioral analysis. Even last game, which I can't say with activity level, I felt your posts had way more substance and more analytical thought to them with more of you talking to multiple people and contesting major points. Just seemed like you didn't do that a lot and I don't want to go activity hunting, just felt like at times you "rode the inactivity" that was happening
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Also my theme that I was thinking was fictional characters vs non fictional character by the way. With the claims that were given so far, this theme idea seems dead to water
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So I looked back onto my banana reads and slept on it, and I think I can give some consideration to banana being a 3P. I was rereading the DP and took account the playerbase and people alive, and I feel like the only way that banana would've been inclined to fake a 3p claim is if they had a partner that was not that experience and didn't know. The only thing that throws me for a loop is the fake claim and that's the only thing that just doesn't make sense to me. Just sleeping it over I am just having a tough time seeing banana as scum.
Unvote
I have some more thoughts though
Unvote
I have some more thoughts though
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@Greyparrot
I think if Banana is telling truth it has to be one of them. But I wanna go back onto my banana reads
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@Lunatic
I just find it a bit weird how he was set and stone on believing that they were a 3p rather than explore the options.Well austin did point out why though, its because he thought she would just take the 1 v 1 instead. I can see the argument there. She could have tried claiming ascetic to get me lynched too, since that was her supposed fake claim and town wouldn't have had a reason to buy my results.
I mean that's the only reason but if I'm scum and I'm new, I'm focused on surviving as long as I can so I can win and I'm supposed caught guilty. What could be the best way for me to try and keep myself alive while also not generating attention to myself. As a new player I would be kind of inclined to say 3p if I've never played with one before
I also don't love wylted in the POE he gave too.Wylted being silenced is evidence he could be town, but remember, pie did pretend to be silenced in a game as scum not long ago. Wylted isn't town confirmed by any means, hes just likely town.
I meant likely town if I didn't say that, but I don't think Wylted would be the type of player to silence themselves. Wylted as scum likely wants to start chaos as scum and push an agenda. I think that's probably the best thing he's good at with mafia. Why would he willingly take that away from himself?
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@iamanabanana
You wouldn't be the target of a lynch if you claimed DP1. No one was going to lynch you. Plus the fact you had a fake claim for this role is so off. I have been 3p in a bunch of games and never had a fake claim.You don't know that. Also i cant control the fact that i was given a fake claim. consider this; why would i tell everyone my fake claim if i was mafia huh?!?
I can make educated guesses based on how 3p's were treated in past games.
Why would you tell your fake claim if you were mafia? Well you already claimed your "real claim" so I honestly don't know why you would. Maybe to draw cred and for town to keep you alive??? Honestly idk seems like a bad move...
Why would you tell your fake claim if you were mafia? Well you already claimed your "real claim" so I honestly don't know why you would. Maybe to draw cred and for town to keep you alive??? Honestly idk seems like a bad move...
The main question is, why do you have a fake claim for a 3p. No mods and games I've experience have had fake claims for 3p. Why is this game so much different compared to the other sites?
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@Lunatic
I am not entirely sure where I stand on it, but I think he's right that if she is actually third party it's kind of a risk to let her live anyway as she could vote for a mislynch at LYLO to ensure the game ends at np4.She could be telling the truth about being third party, but I find it weird that she would be given a fake claim. I just don't see a point in letting her live either way though. I don't sus austin though for considering letting her live.
I just find it a bit weird how he was set and stone on believing that they were a 3p rather than explore the options.
I also don't love wylted in the POE he gave too.
I also don't love wylted in the POE he gave too.
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Gp is still technically in the POE, but my POE is based a bit more on the reads but this is just my preliminary thought process
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Also my POE is as follows with these options
Removing myself
Lunatic
AustinL0926
AustinL0926
whiteflame
Savant
WyIted
Greyparrot
iamanabanana
Luna is essential town locked
AustinL0926
whiteflame
Savant
WyIted
Greyparrot
iamanabanana
I feel wylted is a strong town. I just find no reason that wylted as scum would mute himself in this game. Makes no sense and I think it puts wylted into town
I feel wylted is a strong town. I just find no reason that wylted as scum would mute himself in this game. Makes no sense and I think it puts wylted into town
AustinL0926
whiteflame
Savant
Greyparrot
iamanabanana
If banana is scum, I'm taking Savant out of the POE. I just don't think there would be a 3p to exist
AustinL0926
AustinL0926
whiteflame
Greyparrot
iamanabanana
Greyparrot is then my second best town read. I know his role is baseless and think shouldn't be as trusting, but he really doesn't differ from his normal behavior and I just see no reason to scum read him
AustinL0926
whiteflame
iamanabanana
I think this is my POE, however the alternative could be
AustinL0926
whiteflame
Savant
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A lot of grammar errors in that post, but this DP i meant last. With town meant as town.
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Honestly, I would say my second scum read at the moment is WF.
Looking at whiteflame's behavior analysis from last game to this game. It definetly feels like Whiteflame is not focusing as much on reads and behavior analytics as much and instead is relying on a theme split that he admitted himself he is relatively not as well informed on. I've played a few games with him as scum and seen him play as scum and I think he engages a lot more behaviorally with town and does a lot more behavior analysis. He also comes off strong in DP1s when he's town compared to when he is scum, and I think he was relatively weak coming into this DP and really didn't do much. While I don't want to dock off points for being busy and having a lot of your plate, I think that some of his analysis is just a lot more subpar and "coasting" through the DP rather than giving thoughtful insight. Even when the pace is slow WF usually engages a bit harder in the DP to get conversations going
Looking at whiteflame's behavior analysis from last game to this game. It definetly feels like Whiteflame is not focusing as much on reads and behavior analytics as much and instead is relying on a theme split that he admitted himself he is relatively not as well informed on. I've played a few games with him as scum and seen him play as scum and I think he engages a lot more behaviorally with town and does a lot more behavior analysis. He also comes off strong in DP1s when he's town compared to when he is scum, and I think he was relatively weak coming into this DP and really didn't do much. While I don't want to dock off points for being busy and having a lot of your plate, I think that some of his analysis is just a lot more subpar and "coasting" through the DP rather than giving thoughtful insight. Even when the pace is slow WF usually engages a bit harder in the DP to get conversations going
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@AustinL0926
I think banana's claim is probs real just bc if she's scum then any reasonably experienced player knows that claiming 3P is a bad idea to survive, she'd always be better off just taking the 1v1 with Savant.
No I'd honestly disagree with this sentament. Depending on what you claim as a 3p it honestly isn't a bad idea. This also applies the different way too. Banana being relatively new and getting caught, just wanted to throw something out there to try and salvage what was left and buy time.
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
Also I want to point out as well. Scum are not given fake claims. Pie's post in DP1 suggested that mafia are only given 2 questions to ask if a role and a claim are in the game...
Why wouldn't the same logic apply for a 3P, and better yet, why would a 3P need a fake claim???
Why wouldn't the same logic apply for a 3P, and better yet, why would a 3P need a fake claim???
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