Total posts: 15,922
Posted in:
Savant is probably scum then, but he flips town for some reason then I think we need to relook Wylted as a scum possibility at this point. He was so adament on Savant being scum and if he somehow turns town then we need to have some suspicions
Created:
Posted in:
So either Savant is lying through his teeth or I've been framed
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
Well I was under the assumption that at the minimum we would have 7-8 alive, thus making it 5-2, 6-2. If we mislynch today it LIKELY becomes 3-2,4-2, thus I am unable to use my role. Didn't think no NK would happen. But since we have 9 left, I was going to plan on not claiming but I think there is enough options and leeway now that we have 9 for there to claim it early on
Created:
Posted in:
I'll also take the time to claim now then.
I am a 1x double voter. One time during the DP I can make my vote worth double. I just submit that I want to use it to Luna and boom it's done.
My other roles were popular, politician, and 1x dark lord. All of which are "role confirmable," hence why I said I don't believe in the validity of role confirmations. Plus Dark Lord and Politicians had choices to switch the momentum of the game completely. It was between popular and politician and I just thought 1x Double Voter would not hurt town the most
I am a 1x double voter. One time during the DP I can make my vote worth double. I just submit that I want to use it to Luna and boom it's done.
My other roles were popular, politician, and 1x dark lord. All of which are "role confirmable," hence why I said I don't believe in the validity of role confirmations. Plus Dark Lord and Politicians had choices to switch the momentum of the game completely. It was between popular and politician and I just thought 1x Double Voter would not hurt town the most
Created:
Posted in:
Well I guess my reads on Austin were wrong then. Oh well good note for future behavior references then.
Well at least we have one confirmed town which reads we can trust.
Anyway I need to reread the last DP and see what happened because it ended by the time I woke up and got out for class; DP over
Well at least we have one confirmed town which reads we can trust.
Anyway I need to reread the last DP and see what happened because it ended by the time I woke up and got out for class; DP over
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
Hammerer is literally the least negative utility because it does nothing to change the outcome of the lynch if people don't just L - 1 for no reason.
Assuming it's a 7+2 setup, it takes only 2 mafia and 2 town to lynch someone, etc. It has extremely bad utility in late compared to early game. It actively forces town to change strategy versus Miller, etc.
You're acting like I chose to take negative utility on purpose because I wanted to have a towny category. No, I got stuck between four bad options and now everyone is getting on my case for it. If you were in my shoes, I guarantee that any option you chose would have been judged just because people apparently can't fathom that the mod gives the roles, not me.
I would've taken the Miller IMO because I felt it would be the less detrimental to the voting and would not cause town to change strategy. But again this is my philosophy of the game
Created:
Posted in:
With that in mind, I am going to shower and then check back the thread once I am done then I'm clocked for the night
Created:
Posted in:
Right now my full reads are as follows
Lean town
Wylted
Pie
GP
Null
Everyone not listed
Lean Scum
Austin
Savant
My town lean is on Pie because I feel like it's such a Pie thing to not go for the confirmable role and instead go for the role that gets the most information. It feels like a Pie choice and his overall committment to the game and long length posting with quick jump looking to hammer and feel town
I've said my reasoning for Wylted
GP isn't breaking from the meta that he plays as town but is definetly not as "town locked" as he is when he normally early claims in this game due to the nature of the game and how it is setup. He can still easily be scum but from a behavior standpoint he leans town
My nulls are simply because I either don't have enough posts to work with or haven't given me anything that has stood out one way or another. I always have a hard time reading WF and Casey hasn't given me enough of their scum/town cues to indicate a lean on them
Created:
Posted in:
I think I am going VTL Austin
I've heard that he does reaction tests to see how people act, but even then I really am very anti reaction test as I inherently find it scummy. Plus I really can't remember him doing it (which I could wrong). I feel like he's been very flip floppy on his opinions and been OMGUS, especially when I thought he didn't choose the right role as Neg. Utility and immediately scum read me before backing off, then going to Pie, then backing off Pie and then immediately going in onto Savant the minute that Wylted brings up about his manufactured. Savant, while yes I do see how he can be scum read and I do agree with some of his stuff going and building off others, I won't say it's fully a scum read and enough to warrant a lynch. Hell I know at times I can kind of buddy off logic when I believe it's good. I think this reaction test stuff is a bit of nonsense.
I am also still irked by the way he chose a role that would likely benefit himself more than it would benefit the town as a whole. His behavior since then makes me lean more into that logic.
I've heard that he does reaction tests to see how people act, but even then I really am very anti reaction test as I inherently find it scummy. Plus I really can't remember him doing it (which I could wrong). I feel like he's been very flip floppy on his opinions and been OMGUS, especially when I thought he didn't choose the right role as Neg. Utility and immediately scum read me before backing off, then going to Pie, then backing off Pie and then immediately going in onto Savant the minute that Wylted brings up about his manufactured. Savant, while yes I do see how he can be scum read and I do agree with some of his stuff going and building off others, I won't say it's fully a scum read and enough to warrant a lynch. Hell I know at times I can kind of buddy off logic when I believe it's good. I think this reaction test stuff is a bit of nonsense.
I am also still irked by the way he chose a role that would likely benefit himself more than it would benefit the town as a whole. His behavior since then makes me lean more into that logic.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
I am going to disagree with this sentament and I hate mod psyching and tbh I am kinda leaning town on you and Pie because I think this is a clash of theoretical mafia differences but this is my opinion
All this being said, I'm not automatically concluding that a role confirmed Hammerer must be town in this game. It'd be a weird choice to give scum the option to be the Hammerer, but this is the kind of game that might include such a thing. It's unusual enough that I don't scumread Austin's initial response to having the role.
If there is any mod that's going to make roles that are perceived scum as town, it would be Lunatic. I know in my PM one of roles in my categories is technically considered a scum role, but has been flavored town (ironically it was I think in a Pie or Luna game I was given the town flavor of this role).
I don't want to psych Austin but if I was scum in this game, assuming the parameters Pie pointed are true, I think the most optimal play for mafia is "confirm" that they have that role then use their sets of seperate roles they are given (which is given information in the OP). So I see role confirmation as much weaker than what it is.
Granted, I know I fall into the category of choosing for role confirmation, but all my roles were confirmation roles and I chose the one I think would be the less damaging to town while also providing the most utility
I don't want to psych Austin but if I was scum in this game, assuming the parameters Pie pointed are true, I think the most optimal play for mafia is "confirm" that they have that role then use their sets of seperate roles they are given (which is given information in the OP). So I see role confirmation as much weaker than what it is.
Granted, I know I fall into the category of choosing for role confirmation, but all my roles were confirmation roles and I chose the one I think would be the less damaging to town while also providing the most utility
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
I agree it doesn't "hard confirm" him regardless (and I think that was jumping the gun a bit), but he's also not the first person to suggest that scum might have access to roles in the two Categories that aren't in town.There’s a difference between getting them as a fake claim vs a real confirmable role to mislead town. No one suggested the latter to my understanding.There is some presumption in that line that suggests that scum could have received a role from those Categories, which seems to be the stronger basis for your sus, but I read this as making a case for why it couldn't be because it would throw off the balance of the game.Luna already said the balance is wonky because of the inherent choices players made. Balance shouldn’t be an argument anywhere in this game period.
I've saying this notion for like most of the game. It doesn't matter if you choose a role confirmable role because balance doesn't matter and getting role confirmed. I think people are putting too much weight on this because scum are given 2 fake categories
Created:
Posted in:
Sorry just got out of a fraternity meeting (we had rush and for some reason I'm on the committee), so trying to catch up
Created:
Posted in:
Right now from a behavior perspective that Wylted is town. I think GP is also town but if Pie's logic about the mafia is true, GP can easily claim his role without reprocussions to a certain extent. But I like his reasoning behind his analysis and his behavior hasn't really detered me from what I see is usally town from him.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
Role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmationEspecially in this game tooWhy not?
I generally don't believe this is general I know you don't
But in this game remind you that people choose their roles and a quote from the OP saying:
Mafia will have role options to pick from not on this list however.
This means mafia likely have an extra role or something to pair with whatever they have as well. Can not trust someone just because they are role confirmed
Created:
Posted in:
Honestly I have a slight lean of town for Wylted because of his other roles
Wylted is deffo the player to take risks, especially in games that he is town in by dueing role analysis and behavior deduction. I could totally see choosing roles that are a bit more out there and riskier to make a smarter play. It alligns with what he does
+ it role confirms him
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Earth
I feel like the logic Austin is laying down points to him being Town, not mafia. Its possible that if I had a choice between Hammerer or Miller that I would pick Hammerer so at least I can be confirmed on Day 1. Even if you dislike the role/affiliation confirmation thing, getting role confirmed isn't anything to sneeze at.
As I said before, I have a different philosophy about negative utility that it seems like everyone doesn't agree on. I didn't scum read him for it but I'm pointing out my opinion that I would've went for the role that does the least amount of negative utility to town.
I 100% agree that role confirmation is nothing to scoff at. Hell, I chose a role that would role confirm me as well but that's because it can technically have positive utility compared to the others I were given. His specific category was negative utility which harms the town. IMO, I would choose something that is lesser town damaging and that is my philosophy.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
Role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmation
Especially in this game too
Especially in this game too
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
What were the other roles you were offered if you don't mind?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
Yes they are all negative utility but there is a level to negative that there is.
A miller is less of a neg utility than a hammerer, etc. I think if I was in your shoes I would choose the role that is the least likely to negatively effect town. That's just my analysis. Do you agree with what I have to say?
A miller is less of a neg utility than a hammerer, etc. I think if I was in your shoes I would choose the role that is the least likely to negatively effect town. That's just my analysis. Do you agree with what I have to say?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
This is completely not true. In fact if anything I didn't put any blame on you because I shifted my analysis and perception on it
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
I am going to respond to this because I think you are reaching. I said you made the wrong choice in my opinion. Which I still stand by. I can go into game analysis but if the town neg utility is actually town, then you want to choose something that is going to be the less detrimental to town IMO. That's how I would play it and that's how I think. I even pointed out that I don't scum read you for it because it could be a bad choice and even pointed out to WF. It's Dp1 and we are working with very little info.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
My role is pretty easily verifiable as it's role.No one has really discussed this yet, but role verification could matter a great deal more in this game than usual. Scum have incentive to fake claim a role that exists in one of the two Categories they know town won't occupy. So it stands to reason that they won't be able to completely verify whatever role they claim. The flip side of that, though, is two-fold:- Scum might have roles that could straddle two or even three Categories and simply claim their actual role (or some similar variant) and a different Category, or- Scum could present their role as something it is not, but make it seem as though they verified itSo "verifiable" matters a great deal, but the context of what is verified and how matters as well. None of this is to say you should claim, I'm just writing out my thoughts on how we should view verifiable claims.
Yep true. I also have to use my role pretty wisely for the most part as well so I don't think it is beneficial to claim this DP. But I can guarantee once I claim and use it, it verifies me having the role
I am a bit skeptical of Austin's choice. I am using a lot of role analysis and decision making and I feel like if Neg Util is down, I would do something that would likely put the town in the least amount of risk possible versus the Hammerer role.I'd also like to know whether you're sussing him or not. I probably would have made the same decision in his shoes, but I understand why others might choose differently.
Savant made a good point about it being a bad choice versus scummy. Right now I would say it's more leaning of a bad choice but I haven't seen Austin talk so his behavior throughout the game could influence. But it's something I have in the back of my mind
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
That's also a good point. With the variability of choosing characters it can be a scum read or just bad choice on town. I have to rethink my whole perception of that now lol good point
Original thought it just bad choice but I want to see how Austin is behaviorally
Created:
Posted in:
I am a bit skeptical of Austin's choice. I am using a lot of role analysis and decision making and I feel like if Neg Util is down, I would do something that would likely put the town in the least amount of risk possible versus the Hammerer role.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
Good to see you back in action. Also nice DanDaDan PFP. I enjoyed the show
But I agree with a good amount of your analysis on the roles being "town confirmed." Think we need to do a deeper dive + also people got choose their role too. A lot of variability with that.
Grey's Dp1 claim is his meta unfortunately and probably should've been claimed. Austin was in the right for claiming neg utility. |
Gonna be a lot of behavioral analysis
Gonna be a lot of behavioral analysis
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
Ehhh I was choosing between 2 and maybe I would switch but I wouldn't realistically do it. My role is confirmable
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Casey_Risk
Bookie,
I've never seen a bookie be used in the game before... Has any other mod used it? I looked it up on Wiki and seems interesting
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
If I had to guess, "Manipulation" and "Killing" are probably mafia categories. If we all claim, we might be able to single them out that way.Anyway, here's a list imo from most likely town to most likely mafia:1. Protective2. Investigative3. Voting4. Passive5. Negative Utility6. Passive7. Role Prevention8. Killing9. ManiputlationOnly nonconfirmable town roles that mafia could claim are passive and negative utility. This might be an easy win.
In theory you are right but I am going to push back. Not to modpsyche but Luna is definetly the type of mod to make investigative a mafia role. I wouldn't think too much ahead of it and just try to push behavior rather than theorizing at this point.
Created:
Posted in:
This is going to be an interesting. I feel like behavior analysis is going to play a huge part in this game and I am pretty unfamiliar with some of the players games
Created:
Posted in:
Bears:
Drafted Justin Fields. Surrounded themselves with a young core. Still a great team that drafted amazingly this year offensively. Amazing defensively. Potential division champions if Fields pans outYet to see. New management is OK and while Fields has looked rough, he had a good game vs the VikingsFields has become the future. A lot of potentialWelp the new look Bears have shown a ton of potential even after an abysmal season. Fields did not become the future. I guess it's Caleb season. New management has been cooking though. Bright future
Shit season with horrible coaching.
Bulls:
New management. Acquired Lonzo Ball, Demar DeRozan, and other assests. New starting 5...Lonzo BallDemar DerozanDemar RozanPatrick WilliamsNikola VucevicAlso Caruso and Coby White are on the bench.Aged like fine wine. Still one of the best teams in the league with some nice young piecesAnd then it aged like milk. Lonzo is mysteriously hurt, the team is 10th and barely play in. Win vs good teams but lose to bad teams. Not a good team where the GM =/= tradeStill the same. Mediocre team but Coby White has become a surprising piece to this team. Still an 8 seed but I can only pray
Still mediocre but at least Lonzo is back
Blackhawks:
Just acquired Venzina winning goalie Marc Andre Fleury from the Golden Knights. Also acquired Seth Jones from the Blue Jackets (though he was overpayed). They could make a playoff push this year with some of the key core still in tactAged as well as milkAged even worse. #1 pick potentialWell we got a generational talent out of the draft and are looking to get another. Future is insanely bright but geez that take aged like milk
Team is still trash but a lot of good prospects in the farm but geez we need to help Bedard
White Sox:One of the best teams in baseball right now with a 62-44 record. There roster includesC. Yasmani Grandal1B. Jose Abreu2B. Cesar HernandezSS. Tim Anderson3B. Yoan MoncadaLF. Eloy JimenezCF. Luis Robert (when healthy)/Brian GoodwinRF. Adam EngelDH. Gavin SheetsTheir pitching is looking insane as wellLance LynnCarlos RodonLucas GiolitoDallas KeuchelDylan CeaseOh and their bullpen is arguable the best in the MLBLiam HendriksCraig KimbrelGarrett CrochetAaron BummerRyan TeperaMichael KopechFuck Tony La Russa. Bad year with injuries in 2022 and had incompetent managing, and then they lost to the Stros the year I made that postRIP Jose, couple of nice pieces added too with La Russa gone. It's gonna be a 50/50. Kimbrel gone tooWell this aged horribly. 1/2 the core is gone and the team might lose 100 games this season
Did I say 100? I meant 121 and be the worst team in MLB History. Geez
The only team that is in rebuild mode is the Cubs and they got a good return for their plays for the most partChicago might be a big sports city in 2020'sThe Cubs are starting to look competent again I guess
We'll see but they got Tucker this offseason
Created:
Posted in:
I keep this a yearly tradition but I forgot to post it during wild card rounds but here is my honest prediction
Chargers beat Texans
Ravens beat Steelers
Bills beat Broncos
Eagles beat Packers
Bucs beat Commanders
Rams beat Vikings
Chiefs beat Chargers
Ravens beat Bills
Eagles beat Bucs
Lions beat Rams
Chiefs beat Ravens
Eagles beat Lions
Chiefs beat Eagles to 3peat
I don't even want this but I know it will
Went for 4-2 on Wild Card predictions
Chargers beat Texans
Ravens beat Steelers
Bills beat Broncos
Eagles beat Packers
Bucs beat Commanders
Rams beat Vikings
Chiefs beat Chargers
Ravens beat Bills
Eagles beat Bucs
Lions beat Rams
Chiefs beat Ravens
Eagles beat Lions
Chiefs beat Eagles to 3peat
I don't even want this but I know it will
Went for 4-2 on Wild Card predictions
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
/in
If you can, ping me in discord when the game starts.
If you can, ping me in discord when the game starts.
Created:
-->
@RemyBrown
The difference is the access of alcohol, drugs, and guns to the youth than porn. You can't just go online and consume alcohol, drugs, guns, at a young age
Created:
-->
@RemyBrown
As a Libertarian who voted Trump, I think if there's one thing that I'd ban it would be porn. Porn has become such a plague to the youth and become way to accessible.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Double_R
It wouldn’t have made any difference. The problem the democrats faced in this election is that they were running against a fantasy. People remember 2017-2019 being great years, and memory holed 2020. From there, nothing Trump did mattered. No matter how clearly he showed us how ignorant and unprepared he was, no matter how obvious his cognitive decline, no matter how anti constitution he showed himself to be, no matter how self centered and narcissistic he demonstrated himself to be, no matter how unserious everyone knew he was… he was president before and things were good, therefore things will be good again.
I do agree that Trump is not the speaker he once was, but his policy he had and implemented was better than anything Harris did.
Latinos biggest concern was the immigration crisis and Kamala calling herself the "border czar" did nothing to help with the crisis and made it worst. Latinos saw it firsthand and voted for Trump
Latinos biggest concern was the immigration crisis and Kamala calling herself the "border czar" did nothing to help with the crisis and made it worst. Latinos saw it firsthand and voted for Trump
Muslims didn't come out and vote for any candidate because the Democratic party is still funded by wealthy Zionists that will stop all funding if they decide to Free Palestine, hence why they did not vote at all.
Meanwhile every time Kamala opened her mouth she had to show us that she was exceptionally intelligent, understood everything she was talking about, had all the answers, and had to make us feel like she could accomplish anything. The double standards were unlike anything I’ve ever seen.
No she did not. Her campaigned focused on falsely fear mongering to multiple people to try and do the same thing the Dems won in 2020 on. Expect this time the status quo is still terrible under Biden and are sick of the status quo and Kamala stated she had no plans to do it. She alienated the working class to instead pander to the Hollywood elite.
Even Trump supporters admit that they don’t know what he’s going to do, that’s what people voted for. This is a pass we give to Trump and no one else. The Democrats didn’t stand a chance.
This is 100% a lie. Most of every news station said this is a different Trump presidency because this Trump has an agenda, has an idea, and has Washington experience
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Greyparrot
I think the Dems are too divided as a whole to unite under one cause. The reason they won 2020 was because they united under COVID to fear monger liberals. They couldn't do the same thing this time around
Created:
Posted in:
Also, for those wondering, I cast my vote for Trump. I definitely was less excited to do so as I would've been in 2016/2020 if I could. The Jan 6th stuff still leaves a sour taste in my mouth, but I am not voting for a candidate that runs a campaign on calling working class citizens looking for a better future trash, calling the white man trash, and a lack of change from the status quo. Thinking logically > thinking emotionally
Created:
Posted in:
So the election is over and Trump has won the election as the 47th president of the United States where he won all 7 battleground states and outperformed a bunch of metrics. I can safely say this is a landslide election. Blue states such as California shifted in -5% losses for Kamala from 2020, while also states such as NJ, IL have shifted 9% since 2020, along with 2016. So what do I think and what's the future for 2028?
Republicans
Republicans
Republicans this around did an excellent job and getting people to utilize the mail in ballots and early voting, something lacking in the 2020 election. This played key as it allowed a gain of Trump votes and was key to them winning. The biggest takeaway of this election is that Trump's tough immigration policy is working well with Latinos and that seems to be there top priority. Primarily blue counties in Texas and Florida flipped red for the first time since 1892. We also see Latino's turned out in a 13% surge. We also see new voters to the election turned out in a majority for Trump. Not much I can say at this point
Democrats
Democrats are potentially fucked. I say this cautiously but from what I have seen tonight, Dems are really in a bad position for 2028.
Let's start with this. They were doomed to win this election when they didn't get to vote for their candidate in the primary. Swing states are essential when it comes to having to choose your candidate in the election, and they didn't do that. This was a huge mistake on Biden and on the Dems. Kamala did not differentiate herself from Biden enough to resonate with the working class. even saying that "it will be just like Biden." Not only does that piss off your progressive base, but it also pisses off the undecided voters who were not happy with the current SOTU.
So What Now?
2028 is going to be...well something. There is no real telling of the future but if I had to bet on the GOP nominee for 2028, it would likely be Vance. But as for the Dems it's hard to say. If you alienate your moderates with a progressive candidate, you lose that vote to Vance. If you go moderate yet again, you lose the progressive vote, yet again. The party is split. Kamala may fair better in primaries, hell maybe Walz throws his money in there, but Vance is a better and more articulate version of Trump and they got rinsed in the election where Trump did poor in the debate. Vance lapped Walz and would lap him again and Kamala if they ran again. I don't know what moderate could do it. If you go into the moderate route you end up alienating your entire young voters who already shifting Republican. You go progressive and you alienate moderate and undecided voters that are not ready for those changes. Overall lose lose situation
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@iamanabanana
I think you played a great game of mafia and would love to see you stick around and play more. I am always a skeptic of claims to be honest and I think you will grow as a player
Created:
-->
@FLRW
The same way I was paying for the debt under Biden, maybe a little less now
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@FLRW
Project 2025 will destroy the USA.
Trump never even fully endorsed Project 2025. Made up just to promote Kamala, even then, some of the policies themselves are giving harsher sentences on Child S** Offenders. What's so bad about this?
Created: