Total posts: 15,922
Extend the 2017 TCJA Act.
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For one, I was never a big fan of Banana's claim to start. I think it's 100% easy to fake for the most part. I think the fact Pie soft claimed an investigative then hard claimed the char makes sense. I think Pie should draw some FoS, but I think Banana's ultra-defensiveness/aggressiveness really throws me off. I think if Banana flips town I am going to take a deep look at Pie. I have to reread Casey however to jog my memory
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I am not a fan of Banana's behavior in this game. I am actually more inclined to believe an odd night cop. Either way the game is a 5v1 so we can afford to. Seems way to emotion and the constant tunnel vision of Pie just rubs me the wrong way. I also think Moozer POE is town
VTL Banana
VTL Banana
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@Mharman
I didn't want to get too confident like in 2020. I still thought Trump would win but I felt it would be way less. I also didn't expect a 13% latino red shift and around a 10% shift in youth. I thought women would overperform because of abortion but it is clear that the real value was immigration
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Not really sure this time around. This is likely coin flip. Kamala's late surge is worrisome but the early vote in the key deciding state, Pennsylvania is down 27% from last year. Election Day voting always favors R, but with the Republicans focusing on Early Voting this cycle, it's tough to say. Polls recently have been very Trump favored or Kamala slim compared to what we've seen from previous elections who've had 3-4% skew toward Dem. I don't trust the polls though or anything like it
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The argument for each -
Pie - The argument you can make for Pie being scum is that he hasn't fully claimed a role and soft claimed "investigative." From what I've seen (could be wrong), he hasn't claimed a song either. Most likely waiting til all claims comes out to do such. I don't hold activity into high account so that's a non argument, but I think he was a bit hard on banana in Dp1 and definetly was pushing him hard until the WF claim where he very quickly changed his vote to ensure he wasn't the L-1. Not to mention the biggest opposer of Pie who was catching on is dead.
Casey - Casey does not have a role that is "confirmable" by really any means and seems inherently weak considering what has been claimed. I also did not like their post when they were discussing the read on me. I didn't like the flip flop aspect of "I originally had Supa in my scum but when he changed his reasoning he was null. I also just think they're posts are also very safe. Not necessarily any big reads and game solving and just soft safe posts. However there is a way that Casey can use their role to essentially give mafia a free win and I hope they see it. Not to mention not on the wagon for WF.
I am more confident in a Pie than I am in a Casey lynch because Casey's mechanic could really help push the game to a town win. I am also not ruling out Moozer and Banana but right now I am not as eager to lynch them. Moozer's role is scummy but his behavior just feels too towny
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As much as I don't like Moozer's claim, I think I'm taking him out of my POE
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Pie is being very vague on "being an investigative." Don't love that to be honest and not to mention he is the last to make a char claim (unless I missed it DP1).
This is a tough game but I'm going to use POE
I am town
I think Owen can be confirmed if he uses his role in the NP and I want to hold off voting him.
I think Banana's role and Mhar's role make sense and seems like it could be more town than scum. I am not ruling out Banana as scum but I don't think it's feasible to put in my final poe.
This leaves
Moozer
Pie
Casey
I am going to have to reread these but honestly. I am sort of leaning toward Moozer.
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I had a read on Owen but if it's the role he's describing, he can confirm himself and bring back someone from the dead. This means Owen SHOULD bring back Mharman from the dead. There's a way we can solve this game pretty easy
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Ok so it looks like WF tried to spin Suicide Bomber as town. Luckily were (assumably) in a 5v1 so we have some room for error but let's not let that cloud our judgement
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Full claim. I am Words, Words, Words.
My quote is "“We the people of the USA, Jose, we're not talkin to you, esse. We got a border in order to keep you out, it's what my NYU essay's about”
My song is very silly but doesn't have a serious twist and because of that I am a vanilla.
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@Mharman
I don’t like the claim. But I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt since it’s a PR.I’m “From God’s Perspective”Now this is a puzzle. I'll hold off on asking for a full claim for a few minutes because I do need to think about the alarm bells this is ringing for me.To the people I townread: You picking up what I'm putting down, guys
I have an idea
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@ILikePie5
Take a shot of Jameson for every red state and take a gummy bear shot for every blue state
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Also Banana claimed a song that is very popular and huge. I want to state this, THIS IS NOT AFFILIATION INDICATIVE. It makes even more sense when there isn't a theme split
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Thought I will say, I have a slight town read on Pie. I feel like his kind of relentless pressure reads a bit more into his town play rather than his scum play. Plus I feel like if he was scum would've said/done something as scum when he was with gf to not draw the inactivity off him. Idk this is just a gut feeling for that part.I don't really agree with either of these points. If he's dedicated to the girl enough to not post a morsel as town, I don't think he'd do it as scum.
I am going to agree to disagree here and I don't feel there's a point to debate this further since this is loose gut subjective based reasoning
As for relentless pressure, no. Pie is bold and will fight tooth and nail for mislynches and blame the mislynch on Banana's town idiocy the next DP. It's very common for scum to use TIs like this and I know Pie has done it before.
I'd agree if this was in DP2-3. But in DP1 I can't say I've seen him use the meta
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@Mharman
I think Owen should be considered. I know he wants to avoid being the info lynch but he hasn't added any value to the town side. It just seems like lazy town play and buddying off of Pie's logic without a care or hesitation to it.
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@Mharman
Thought I will say, I have a slight town read on Pie. I feel like his kind of relentless pressure reads a bit more into his town play rather than his scum play. Plus I feel like if he was scum would've said/done something as scum when he was with gf to not draw the inactivity off him. Idk this is just a gut feeling for that part.
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@Mharman
I don't mind a Pie push honestly. I don't think this is a 1v1 situation, but I wouldn't hate to hear Pie's claim.
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@WyIted
The claim is easy to test though. It just involves them reporting on the previous jights actions and seeing if it lines up with reality
I mean yeah but it could be easily faked and in a Luna game, there are a lot of twists that give mafia some extra insight into the game that can deceive town
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@iamanabanana
Activity pressure =/= scum readingPushing people to be active by getting them to claim makes it so that since they are inactive, they will have a harder time thinking of a claim if they are scum. If they aren't active, then you lynch dead weight. Scum reading for activity is scummy and anti town. And Pie's basis for voting you is not just because he voted you.You are making a lot of assumptions about his vote, when he actually just voted you then dis-appeared. His behavior is 100% hypocritical. Him posting now does not erase the fact that he was bored and dis-interested when he was mafia a couple games ago, and seemed to be bored and dis-interested here, my original basis for scum reading him doesn't go away because he decided to be active in the last 24 hours of the day phase.
Can people not have a life outside of mafia lol? This point quite literally has 0 merit
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Alright I am getting a shit ton of pings right now that I'm going to respond too once I'm fully caught up. I got a bit too distracted and went off rails. For context I'm on mid page 7
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Also Mharman is moving into my town pile. I feel like his breakdown of the game and trying to hunt down the scum in this game with long and well thought out posts read extremely town to me in general. I don't think scum would be willing to spill their guts out about their entire reads and game breakdowns and whatever
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@Casey_Risk
Tbh you were giving me flashbacks to DP2 of Years Mafia when you were scum and trying to push me as your target, mainly the idea of using faulty reasoning. In Years, you were trying to push me for supposed aggressiveness in pushing Wylted DP1, even though it was pretty clear I just wanted a lynch, and in the absence of a strong scumread on anyone, getting rid of dead weight just made sense. In this game, you were talking about how I was supposedly asking vague questions even though I wasn't, which I didn't like at all, but the way you stopped pursuing that line felt very unlike what I've seen of you as scum, so I didn't really have a reason to sus you anymore after that.
Ok so I am going to respond to this because I disagree with the notion you weren't making "vague questions"
How much familiarity do you have with Bo Burnham?
#12
I get the sense that someone is trying to blend in instead of getting the game going. You can all guess on who I’m thinking of.Discuss.Are you talking about Pie or Wylted?
#19
Is your role something that you use in the daytime? Is it a voting role?
#53
These were your first posts, which is what I saw. I can maybe give you an excuse for 53 and let that go. Maybe my wording wasn't right. Maybe fluff is a better term, but for the first 3 pages which I was catching and typed that, 50% of your posts were filled with these questions that didn't move game besides arguably that. It's not a scum read on you because I mistook Luna's logic, but to say I was pushing something not true isn't true
These were your first posts, which is what I saw. I can maybe give you an excuse for 53 and let that go. Maybe my wording wasn't right. Maybe fluff is a better term, but for the first 3 pages which I was catching and typed that, 50% of your posts were filled with these questions that didn't move game besides arguably that. It's not a scum read on you because I mistook Luna's logic, but to say I was pushing something not true isn't true
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I don't love banana's claim but I am willing to keep banana alive to see it through. I will say it's not a strong claim and tbh I think I may have used it as scum one time, or was considering using it
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@iamanabanana
Activity pressure =/= scum reading
Pushing people to be active by getting them to claim makes it so that since they are inactive, they will have a harder time thinking of a claim if they are scum. If they aren't active, then you lynch dead weight. Scum reading for activity is scummy and anti town. And Pie's basis for voting you is not just because he voted you.
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I trust the people who are claiming that Banana is more aggressive than usual so I'm willing to push a claim. Im on page 6ish rn so im gonna catch up and all that before I put my vote so if they CLAIMED BY THE TIME ON PAGE 8 PLEASE PING ME
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@Casey_Risk
(as well as the fact that he said I've been asking vague questions, which is just factually wrong), but then he backed off and I'm back to a null read on him.
I have an issue with this statement. Seems extremely OMGUS. I backed off because I mistakenly thought what Luna said. If you had a scum read on me before I switched my reasoning, why did you switch it to null when I switched to null. Seems ultra defensive IMO and tbh out of no where.
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This Owen wagon is out of left field. I know what I said about Owen but it just seems likely everyone is hopping on this wagon without true rhyme or reason
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Yeah Pie is shifting into my town pile. Definetly acting like how he is as town to a certain extent.
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Gonna post my reads then take an extended break for the Chicago Bears, dinner, and my weekly meeting
Lean Town
Moozer
Wylted
Pie
FoS (finger of suspicion)
Owen
Everyone else is null at the moment. I've given my opinions about the following in posts below
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Ok I think I'm going to change my read on Casey to null then. I tried finding the game that I was refering but I genuinely couldn't it. I think maybe Luna was refering to someone else at the time. Idk I haven't played with a lot of the people for a long period of time to be over familiar with their playstyle
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@Casey_Risk
I think it was Indian Politicians or Early DP1 of Years but maybe I'm mistaken. If that's the case then I would just throw you in the null pile then but I swore that Luna said something about your scum behavior being what I said before. When I get some time I'm going to take a deep dive
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@Mharman
Last time I was a mafioso, I was on a team with you and Pie if I recall.
I think I remember that game vaguely lol
just that I can see him playing with little confidence, no matter his affiliation.
You probably have a better idea than me on Owen so I'm definetly not as eager to move the eager on him, let alone in Dp1
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@Mharman
I say this: I understand your point and it’s worth revisiting later, but I’m not seeing any real red flags for now. In fact, looking back his posts, I’m feeling at least at tiny bit better about him after he posted his thoughts. They’re not much, but they do come off as honest, albeit low effort.
No one is a red flag. In fact there should be 0 red flags in Dp1 unless there is a scum slip. Reads in Dp1 for me are behavior patterns I notice that I like to put caution on to revisit when we get more info into the later DP2.
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@Mharman
As for your FoS on Casey, can you expand?
I remember in a game that Lunatic had a good observation that Casey generally tends to ask more vague questions as scum to sort of blend in this game. Noticing he's doing that a good amount in this game and have been picking up on it. Then I just believe the reads he does give have been a bit fluff IMO. Not much significance and original thought besides the questions he asks. I am not a good behavioral reader so I could be off, but that's what I notice
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Honestly gut reaction to Wylted is town. Feel like Wylted "solving" the game and scum hunting to the degree he was is something I would see out of him as town rather than scum
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I also have an FoS on Casey because I remember Luna pointing out in a game one time that Casey tends to be throw questions that are relatively vague as scum to draw town cred.
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It's going to be tough for me to read Mharman because even playing mafia with him for 7+ years to an extent, I really can't remember a time I've seen him as scum and even then, the last time was likely 3+ years ago and I wouldn't be able to remember, not to mention his playstyle could change. I feel like Mharman feels town cuz of his reads and analysis, but I am going to keep him in null because I can't overly trust that read lol
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Something about Owen's posts feel off to a certain extent and I can't just put my finger. They feel "safe." Nothing that's gonna tilt the meter to making him look suspicious but also still contributing. I think the theme analysis one strikes me the most just because when pointed out that there is no theme split, just dodges that point. Slight FoS on Owen but I'm not reading it too hard. I am also not very familiar with Owens playstyle so I can't give a definitive answer if this is general town behavior or actually something to delve into
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