Total posts: 15,922
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
I would agree but I think the 1 to 1 is a narrow minded strategy that usually fails unless it’s CC vs CC. I usually hate when people boil it down to just that
Created:
Posted in:
If not Barney, then it’s Supa
This point is too narrow minded btw. There’s no reason there needs be a 1 of 1 trade off because there is nothing to trade on. It’s not it’s a CC or anything on that lines. You are also forgetting what I said in 251 and earth and Whiteflame. I highly doubt there are 2 roles where you can communicate or give actions to others. Would be way broken
Let’s also consider the fact that at this moment, no cop (besides the 1x given to WF) is in this game or claimed so far.
Created:
Posted in:
I’m gonna read into everything. I have some hours free right to dive into anything but I see a “if not Barney then Supa”, which is pretty illogical I will say
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Earth
Read my role + what I said 251, and what I said about Roleblockers. That’s my justification. There isn’t a strong enough case against Barney where we can confirm his actions and his hesistancy to claim a role that’s relatively weak. 2 RB type characters, 2 “giving roles” and a bunch of investigative which is convienantly a “weak” flavor. Yea not buying it. Plus everyone seems to have claims different to a degree. His is the only one that has multiple people who claimed it.
Created:
Posted in:
Yea I think I’ve seen enough.
VTL Barney
If Barney turns scum, WF is no longer in my town pile
Created:
Posted in:
Plus Luna had a hard town tell on Pie for a “different reason.” Since he said he was voluntarily donating I connected the dots.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
So reading Luna’s justification it seems like his RB was considered optional?? I am lost but Luna if you can confirm this is the case lmk. If this is the case I am 100% willing to lynch Barney. I highly doubt that the existence of 2 RB’s that are considered SOP are in this case because at that point it’s just bastard modding, which I could see Austin do without knowing but damn. I also kind of connected the dots of certain interactions in this game and I sort of know Luna was probably given something from Pie. The soft claims on the first page of charity and Pie laughing were sus but I let it go but now that I see it it’s probably important to reveal. If we assume that Earth is telling the truth about WF we are assuming that then there’s 2 roles that “give” people something from someone else?? I find it hard to believe in this game
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Barney
Even night as claimed. Sorry I missed this but I was jumping post to post after moving in
Created:
Posted in:
Regards to Barney’s claim. I still don’t understand why he needed to gatekeep this information this ~30ish hours in the game. His role is a weak role and the only part that is useful is a roleblock and that is an SOP in of itself IMO.
Created:
Posted in:
I don’t buy Barney’s claim at all from what I am aware considering I see two people claimed a tactic from what I know. But I am going to analyze what WF said on why he thinks Barney is likely town because that’s all I’ve gotten and right now I see no reason as to why I shouldn’t vote Barney
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
Justification is that whites typically start first in a game and you can observe what opening strategy an opponent does in the game and act upon it with your own
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
Yeah just gonna come out and claim Even Night Voyeur. On even nights I visit a player to see what actions were performed on them. I was going to test this out by picking someone at random and outting them.
This is also why I was sus of JoeBob because I thought his claim and mine would be very OP, but considering how many logical inconsistencies there are with this game, I think that it just happens that balancing and other things were off
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
It’s more of a descriptor than it is physical. When I asked Austin he said it would float under descriptor
Created:
Posted in:
I am actually kind of thrown off right now. Maybe it’s just cuz I’m doing actual analysis more than just faking analysis like I was last DP but I am not a fan of Barney waiting to claim and then claiming a roleblock role. I feel like scum is between Pie and Moozer. I can go more in depth once I am home and tbh I’m kind of multitasking between talking to my mom and typing so maybe my analysis will change once I sit down and analyze the DP a bit more and see
Created:
Posted in:
Just got out of moving shit into my aunts and am about to be on the road back home soon. Gonna read a bit and see what is going on. I checked my activity pins first and saw people ask for char claim so I figured I’d get it
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
Black pieces. Yes it’s a bit weird and that’s why I held off but seeing that JoeBob’s role was some form of a descriptor I feel a bit better. My role is also confirmable next DP and is one of the reasons I wanted to lynch JoeBob that I didn’t describe before
Created:
Posted in:
Heads up won’t be active today much as I am moving in to my aunts for my internship this summer so don’t expect much activity today on my end
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
I agree. I would like Barney to claim as well. He's at L1 from what I've seen so I can't pressure with vote
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
the problem with me is that it's too 180 imo. Don't get me wrong if you played different but kept some of the same parts of last game I would think you are town asf, but this is a complete 180 imo, almost as if it's a calculated maneuver to flip people into thinking you are townWait, you said that I changed everything while keeping somethings the same but now you say everything is different? Either way. My role is confirmable tomorrow
Please reread what I said
Created:
Posted in:
Heads up I won't be on tmrw morning. Moving in to my summer house for my internship on Saturday
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
None. Granted my character has to do with something with one of the categories. But it does really fit that category though
Created:
Posted in:
The primary reason has nothing to do with this argument. It's been stated multiple times that was the most minor part of his FOS. It was an opener into questioning joebob. You said you have different reasons, but literally parroted every point.
This simply isn’t true lmao. I said my reasonings for voting were similar but I didn’t analyze it fully until I caught up in the 5 pages of posts that were built up. My behavior reads were similar to Pie’s
The role mechanics sure, there mechanics and are the same, can’t argue mechanics.
Even then I had a completely different reason into voting him too that I tried to keep hidden to not leak info out there, but I guess since this looks like it’s going to be constant, I figured I’d say it. I’d rather not say now unless the town really would want me to
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
I didn't drastically change my vote but I kept reading the DP to catch up. Pie's analysis was more based on behavior and mine included some behavior but was more focused on role analytics and psych more than anything.To answer this because I don't really think I did in the last post, Pie directly targeted and used minuet details to build up an argument. He kept pushing on JoeBob constantly that caused JoeBob to break down IMO. He kept pushing and pushing and getting town to lynch him hard that caused JoeBob to slip up and be behaviorally scum read. Plus the role as well being outtedI am all for the "changed my mind argument". However the "we had different reasons for voting" argument... hmmm...
I am not saying that we didn't have the same reasoning. We both scum read him for the same reasons behaviorally, but we voted for him for different reasons. Pie's was more behavioral and mine was more role utility
I find this interesting. Lets dissect the real reasons then and see what the differences were between your reasons and pies reasons. Shall we?Your post 268 is where you actually end up voting him.Reason 1: The useless role argument.Pies words post 165 : There’s no reason for scum to kill him. If he’s town then his results are delayed anyways. Let’s assume for sake of argument we lynch a townie today and NK is success. It becomes 5-2. We’d only be able to lynch JoeBob and it would be 3-2 LYLO with one result assuming he’s telling the truth. It makes no sense. One night’s worth of results for getting himself lynched? I don’t like it at all. I’m fine lynching him todaySupa's words: I am kind of just analyzing this now, but let's look deeper into his role for a second. We can only see what types of actions he did after he dies. This essentially makes him useless for what we know and his mechanic. Because the only point where we can actually lynch JoeBob is DP2 if he is actually town. Let's think for a second. The only way we even get info from him is if he dies. This means it gives him an excuse as to why he's staying alive as a tracker and word of mouth for the most part. We can't lynch him DP3 because it comes down to this. Lets say we lynch town DP1. 5v2 likely. The only way we can get info and not lose the game is if we lynch DP2 and that's only 1 NP of information and at that point it is a policy lynch. If town is fine with that then, not sure.Literally an exact echo.
That's the same reasoning doesn't mean that's why Pie primarily pushed him. It's basic mechanic on his role. Can't argue mechanics and how we go about it because that's a game mechanic.
Reason 2: Joebob is being defensivePie's words to joebob: And your behavior at this point. Never seen you so defensive.Pies words to me about joebob: He’s strawmanning my argument which I picked up as well.Supa's words: I also am looking at behavior and JoeBob is acting a bit unusual from what I've seen him play as town. He is somewhat deflecting the main criticism and just pushing it as "idiot town" and "tunnelling" and not fully addressing the point of why we are suspicious of him.Another Echo.
I never said MY reasons for lynching were different. I said what PUSHED the votes were different. Pie's push started from the grammar mistake which I simply read as not enough to base a read. When his behavior started to get more defensive and more SPECIFICALLY when he OUTTED HIS ROLE is when I was convinced he was scum.
Here is what exactly I said:
Here is what exactly I said:
Pie's analysis was more based on behavior and mine included some behavior but was more focused on role analytics and psych more than anything. Not really buddying off Pie's logic. Plus as JoeBob kept typing the more he attributed the reasons I voted him
No where does this imply that I stated "we had different reads and had different reasons. This just implies that I put more merit into my vote into the role analysis than Pie did. That's not implying anything.
Then you are going to say... then why did you agree with Pie's reasonings???? I agreed with Pie's reasoning because they are true. You can say true things as scum... I know I sure as hell did when playing in your game that built my town cred up before I fucked up the game. Right reasons, wrong party. I suspect Pie because he pushed so hard on JoeBob before JoeBob even had behavioral analysis in the beggining. It's like Pie sort of forced that behavior out of JoeBob to start a wagon?
So again supa, how was yall's reasoning any different? Pie was either too agressive or he wasn't. I would accept a simple "I changed my mind" but you are actually trying to tell me you voted joebob for different reasons then pies and i'm not seeing the differences.
My read was consistent as I read the game. I first wasn't seeing why JoeBob was being pressured on grammar, then his behavior started to come into question, then the role analysis and why it was shit... that's my logic. Evolving with the game and the post just as mafia. If that's change my mind, then sure, but to me that's just getting new information
I had similiar reasons to Pie, just as you had similiar reasons too? How does that make me MORE scum compared to Pie? In fact you seem to be awfully town read of Pie but yet when I have the same belief he did, you scum read me more when I was catching up to the game and my final verdict.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
What about pie's behavior was "aggressive" then?
To answer this because I don't really think I did in the last post, Pie directly targeted and used minuet details to build up an argument. He kept pushing on JoeBob constantly that caused JoeBob to break down IMO. He kept pushing and pushing and getting town to lynch him hard that caused JoeBob to slip up and be behaviorally scum read. Plus the role as well being outted
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
Can you explain what made you change your opinion on this issue between last night and tonight so quickly?It wasn’t “quick” it was an 13 hour time differential between the two and I read more into JoeBob where he posted more and outted his role. I wasn’t even fully caught up by the time I wrote 147 and when I explained by being very aggressive on him. To be clear I voted from behavioral analysis and role utility and likelihood of scum and not because of some stupid grammar mistake that 80% of the world makes. I also know town has outted enough info to potential scum at this point so I think out of all the people to lynch in DP1, JoeBob is who I consider the most scummy. I even had him as a scum read in my original analysis. I can go deeper if you’d likeWhat about pie's behavior was "aggressive" then? Because when you voted for joebob it was an exact echo of all the thoughts pie had made throughout the day phase. The grammar thing was barely mentioned after being the initial reason for him targeting joebob in the first place.
Pie based those thoughts originally on JoeBob's grammar and pushing him on that. At when you are referencing, I was still only 2-3 pages in and only saw that as a push. When I started to catch up into the DP and saw JoeBob's claim is when I started to put into my scum pile and I had him as a top scum read that entire DP. I didn't drastically change my vote but I kept reading the DP to catch up. Pie's analysis was more based on behavior and mine included some behavior but was more focused on role analytics and psych more than anything. Not really buddying off Pie's logic. Plus as JoeBob kept typing the more he attributed the reasons I voted him. Things change in a DP and when you catch up and the DP goes on you see it progress... you've been playing mafia for longer than I've been in high school and college, you should know that's how these things work
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
Pie - I think Pie would likely be my top scum read. His spearheading of a JoeBob lynch is quite literally the exact opposite of how he played last game with some minor similiarities.So wouldn’t this make me town?
the problem with me is that it's too 180 imo. Don't get me wrong if you played different but kept some of the same parts of last game I would think you are town asf, but this is a complete 180 imo, almost as if it's a calculated maneuver to flip people into thinking you are town
As I stated in Option 3 of my theories, I don't put it past Pie to go and push a Savant NK to give himself town cred using the WIFOM strategy. Seems like that behavior analyzing and all that is something he tends to do.But I didn’t use the WIFOM strategy?
You won't now that I pointed it out, that's one of the only reasons why I could see scum lynching Savant besides the other 2 options
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
In the order from most likely town to least likely town
Earth - Gave a role to whiteflame and whiteflamed confirmed. At this point he is likely the top town read due to his confirmation. Behaviorally I would say it holds up with his play as town as well so he's top town read
whiteflame - I don't see anything from whiteflame that deviated from his play last game. Consistent analytical reasoning, not too gun hoe on certain reads. Looks carefully at each situation while trying to theme analyze. Tends to focus on one player but looks at the other options. My theory above does state someone like WF could be scum, and this is true, I think behaviorally and the confirmation from Earth, he's slight town. He's lower than Earth because scum can receive objects (from the basic analytics of this role and function but I could 100% be wrong)
Barney - I know people want a claim from Barney but I think he's been consistent with what I've seen from him as town. Not taking a back seat, playing relatively passive and joking-ish compared to his game when he was scum with Austin, really not refusing to make a big claim til he is forced to (like when we were both cops in Luna's Invincible). Behavior seems consistent with town but not really sure
Barney - I know people want a claim from Barney but I think he's been consistent with what I've seen from him as town. Not taking a back seat, playing relatively passive and joking-ish compared to his game when he was scum with Austin, really not refusing to make a big claim til he is forced to (like when we were both cops in Luna's Invincible). Behavior seems consistent with town but not really sure
Luna - Luna is tough to read for me because in DP1 he tends to post in bulk. He is also really buddy buddy with Pie for some reason and I find that quite strange. Oddly buddying Pie in DP1 as well with JoeBob then calls me out for doing that in the last game. Almost seems like he's fabricating his reads and trying to hard push lynches. It's a bit suspicious to me.
Moozer - Moozer is a tough read because he's new but my read lies within the effort given into the game. Phrases such as "I'm just gonna vote with the majority," and quickclaiming seem to be his meta. I don't wanna go and pick on the new person because he is new, but it seems like he's just half efforting it and not really trying to make cohecive points. I also think the Savant NK reflects that the possibility of noob to be on scum team
Pie - I think Pie would likely be my top scum read. His spearheading of a JoeBob lynch is quite literally the exact opposite of how he played last game with some minor similiarities. As I stated in Option 3 of my theories, I don't put it past Pie to go and push a Savant NK to give himself town cred using the WIFOM strategy. Seems like that behavior analyzing and all that is something he tends to do.
None of my reads are that strong besides maybe Earth
None of my reads are that strong besides maybe Earth
I am open to lynching those 4 in that order but I don't have enough of a read to push Pie or anyone that's around that range because most of it relies on behavior analysis at the moment
Created:
Posted in:
Alright so here are some of them. I honestly think there is some more viability than others but I have some
Option 1. Scum know every role in the game. Least likely but in DP1 they know what everyone's role is, so thus they knew they needed to kill JoeBob NP1. Even then this is the least likely possibility because I doubt there is a mechanic that broken in the game
Option 2. Scum has a noob on the team which results in this action. This includes a player who is overly-paranoid about certain things and tends to overthink. Plus a noob player
Option 3. Pie is scum. Pie tried to draw WIFOM on us with the Savant lynch. He is known to have a policy lynch of Miller's DP2. He could use the argument of "if I was scum why would I kill Savant when I could draw mislynch based on my policy DP2." I could see Pie running with this
Option 3. Pie is scum. Pie tried to draw WIFOM on us with the Savant lynch. He is known to have a policy lynch of Miller's DP2. He could use the argument of "if I was scum why would I kill Savant when I could draw mislynch based on my policy DP2." I could see Pie running with this
I think these are the 3 choices that I have on the table at the moment. The fit for the category of 2 for overthinking or players would aren't as active would be Moozer as a Noob. The second scum partner could be WF. No offense but I've seen WF tend to overthink sometimes when it comes to mafia and it's very possible he overthought the Miller and wanted to lynch. I could also see Barney or Earth doing this as well. Players who tend to take a backseat during the game and let town eat at themselves and debate on this. Option 3 means that Pie is scum for sure but who is his buddy
I am not sure but those are my option at the moment for theories.
Created:
Posted in:
Yeah the NK doesn't make sense because even if scum knew he was the role, they could've just used him as a mislynch target because of the Miller aspect and his role. I have a few theories though
Created:
Posted in:
Stockfish is a weird claim but I feel like I have to buy it because of the double confirmation (if they are telling the truth and didn't big brain the shit out of this)
Created:
Posted in:
Tough look for JoeBob, he really couldn't do anything about that. Savant getting killed is weird to me
Created:
Posted in:
If we assume everyone who claimed told the truth… that’s a lot of claims we assume mafia can work with
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
Can you explain what made you change your opinion on this issue between last night and tonight so quickly?
It wasn’t “quick” it was an 13 hour time differential between the two and I read more into JoeBob where he posted more and outted his role. I wasn’t even fully caught up by the time I wrote 147 and when I explained by being very aggressive on him. To be clear I voted from behavioral analysis and role utility and likelihood of scum and not because of some stupid grammar mistake that 80% of the world makes. I also know town has outted enough info to potential scum at this point so I think out of all the people to lynch in DP1, JoeBob is who I consider the most scummy. I even had him as a scum read in my original analysis. I can go deeper if you’d like
Created:
Posted in:
Needless to say, no more claims from this point on!!! If we keep forcing claims this only give scum more to work with and I think we have enough claims for this DP to make a decision
Created:
Posted in:
Also don't vote just yet. If somehow this ends up being L-1 by the time I'm still up I'm removing my vote to prevent a quick mafia hammer. Once I'm asleep, shit I guess there is nothing I can do
Created:
Posted in:
I am going to VTL JoeBob
I am kind of just analyzing this now, but let's look deeper into his role for a second. We can only see what types of actions he did after he dies. This essentially makes him useless for what we know and his mechanic. Because the only point where we can actually lynch JoeBob is DP2 if he is actually town. Let's think for a second. The only way we even get info from him is if he dies. This means it gives him an excuse as to why he's staying alive as a tracker and word of mouth for the most part. We can't lynch him DP3 because it comes down to this.
Lets say we lynch town DP1
5v2 likely
Lets say we lynch town DP1
5v2 likely
The only way we can get info and not lose the game is if we lynch DP2 and that's only 1 NP of information and at that point it is a policy lynch. If town is fine with that then, not sure.
I am inclined to believe there is a veteran player guiding them during this process but I could see JoeBob come up with this excuse
I am inclined to believe there is a veteran player guiding them during this process but I could see JoeBob come up with this excuse
I also am looking at behavior and JoeBob is acting a bit unusual from what I've seen him play as town. He is somewhat deflecting the main criticism and just pushing it as "idiot town" and "tunnelling" and not fully addressing the point of why we are suspicious of him. This behavior has been consistent of his meta. Even if we lynch, it means he would HAVE to be lynched DP2 because that's the only way we can get effective information, UNLESS, we lynch a scum this or next DP, which isn't out of question but not assumed we will. It's not likely you get a CC or some info that scum confirms someone NP1.
I am willing to lynch JoeBob
I am willing to lynch JoeBob
Created:
Posted in:
Also Barney's inactivity for the most part and his post feel town-ish to a certain extent. In the last game I noticed his want to soft claim in DP1 when asked for pressure and he did so being consistent with the pattern. He's not backseating the game so I think it puts him more in my lean town for the most part
Created:
Posted in:
I feel I am noticing a pattern with the claims for the most part. It seems like each role is flavored to some degree.
Created:
Posted in:
Don't know what to think of this role tbh. It is an unique role for the most part but I really never heard of the flipped mechanic of it. JoeBob is essentially a "lynch to know" role in a 9 person game. I really don't know how hard I can buy the claim. The only utility I can see is if mafia have to keep JoeBob alive if he decides to track one of them.
It's a weak power role but we can get some behavior mechanics out on it. Still not sure how much I buy the claim. That will be until I see what everyone else claim
Created: