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@Moozer325
It’s more about why I sus Cerulean that why I don’t sus Mharman
Why couldn't they both be scum?
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@Moozer325
Mharman is coming on too strong to be scum, it's a bit of a WIFOM argument, but he's so scummy there's no way he's scum.
I am not sure I understand this one.
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@Moozer325
You realize he's not going to lynch you over Earth, right? This is how you play mafia, you put everything out on the table just in case we missed something. He's doing his due diligence and following every possible lead.
Then why am I the only person he is discussing a scum read on? I've asked him multiple times to elaborate a read on anyone, both in the forums and in the discord chat, and he keeps refocusing it on me lol
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@Moozer325
Your the only one not in my POE I can really appeal to here anymore, so you've made it clear you think earth is the scummiest, who do you think his partner would be in mharman and cerulean?
Maybe we can identify a common scum read to pursue, but fmpov there is a 66% chance of hitting scum in any of earth, mharman and cerulean.
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Its extremely funny that whiteflame keeps trying to sell the fact that he isn't being close minded here, while further pointing to my complaints of him being close minded as a addition to his argumnet. Lol it's funny, but I am done responding to him, he clearly has his mind made up. Not much more I can really say or do here.
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@whiteflame
There's a great deal of difference between hyperfocusing on a theme split that we don't know is real and noticing a very particular and clearly knowable trend among PMs that have been posted so far and what people have said about their own PMs. One is a pattern that's speculated, and one is a pattern that's entirely verifiable. You can literally read what everyone posted and notice they are consistent one with another in this respect. I could very well be wrong that this suggests you are scum, but I'm not wrong that this pattern exists and that it leaves you conspicuously absent from it, which is the point you're not addressing.
I am not addressing it, because I am conceding it. Yes you found a pattern that separates me from other claims. Why are you sure that there aren't other patterns? Why are you certain this is the pattern that happens to be right? Why do I have to argue that? If I am telling you the truth about my claim, which I am, it makes 0 sense for me to justify a pattern that isn't accurate just for the sake of satisfying your worries. I am telling you if there is a pattern, its a different one, not this one, because I have been truthful about my claim. I don't see where the misunderstanding is here.
I just don't agree with your interpretation of what you said. You can justify it however you'd like in retrospect, but that's not how I read it at the time you posted, and even this justification seems like a very tailored reading of your post.
Its not tailored at all. You have your mind made up and are being overly affected by your own confirmation bias that you can twist anything I say into being scummy. I literally did not think about the post in question nearly a tenth of how much you are reading into it.
You asked whether the Martyr would have affected the NK. You did so knowing that your night action was successful, so the answer wasn't pertinent, but you asked anyway. That stood out to me.
I did not ask a question seeking answers, I was literally telling him "isnt obvious that it didn't go through because wylted died?", oh I also happened to know my action went through, so I already knew it didn't go through. Nothing more to it. It's simply not that deep. I assumed he was the night kill.
And I have considered Mharman, that's just untrue.
Your sole focus right now has been on me. What are your thoughts on him gambling his information to being potentially night killed for two nights in a row? Why would he do that? What do you think about him not revealing his np1 information arbitrarily and then when it was revealed it had nothing to do with anything that would have impacted his second information?
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@whiteflame
That's not my impression of what apophenia is, but agree to disagree.
To be fair, I just googled that word, I was trying to search for the one they use in crime shows to tell detectives they are seeing patterns that aren't there, but I forget the term.
This isn't theme analysis, btw. It's analysis of how these PMs are written. I'm not analyzing themes at all. So I'm not sure why you're responding as though what I've said regards a theme split. Almost this entire response is irrelevant to my point, but you're right, scum would better know the theme split.
You are getting caught up in world play, my argument still remains the same. The pattern you see in the way my role PM was written being different, is just wrong. I don't know what else to tell you.
I don't know why you'd even ask if you knew this information. That's the problem: why would you actively seek knowledge you already had? To cover for yourself? To make it seem like you didn't have a night action? Maybe, but that's not how it looks to me, and if you were trying to do that, then it's surprising that you revealed you did have a night action without any pressure.
You are overthinking this way too hard. I knew he didn't block me because I had a succesful action, and I stated the night kill going through was also evidence of this. I wasn't seeking knowledge I already had, I don't know what you mean by that. It seems you have your mind made up, which is strange you aren't considering much of mharman but whatever.
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@whiteflame
I'll put this back to you, then. If this is apophenia as you say (and notably, apophenia applies to random or unrelated events, while these are clearly related and decidedly not random), then why does every single other PM fit this trend except yours? I understand you're claiming honesty, but that doesn't do much for challenging the point I'm making.
Apophenia to me is when you start looking hard at patterns that any sort of pattern suddenly makes sense. I get it, that's what you do in these themes. But how often does our perception of what the theme split is pan out the way we think? I am sure it happens occasionally, but this is a case of you being wrong, and I know that because I am town. If I was more knowledgeable on the theme I could perhaps help identify other patterns that fit that could also be relevant, but since I do not know much about black ops, I can't do that. I am just suggesting that you don't hedge too many bets on what you perceive to be the theme split based off of one theory. Also isn't it significantly more likely mafia are usually already aware of the theme split by having access to their own role PM's in the mafia channel? If they are aware of the split why would they allow themselves to be caught by it?
That suggested uncertainty on your part as to whether he'd used his role. You wouldn't have to ask this question if you already knew that his Martyr wasn't activated.
Of course I would act uncertain, I wasn't trying to expose the fact that I had a working action to mafia. I did eventually because you were straight up asking everyone to do this, and I've seen what non compliance leads to...
Because it's a response to your argument that the existence of a Watcher/Tracker bolsters your case. I've made clear what I'm sussing you for.
You were initially saying that the argument was straight up weak, and now your admitting that its at best a null read, which is all I was every trying to say it was, an argument to take with a grain of salt.
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@Mharman
No, I did not think mafia would confess to an extra ability. Why is that even a question? My fear was that mafia could figure out how to get the extra night kill.
Why would mafias ability to have an extra night kill be affected by their knowledge of another plays hidden ability?
What other reason could you have for asking that question? You’d logically have to argue if I’m scum, I waited because I hadn’t thought of an idea yet, which is bullshit because I’m not fake claiming without both pieces of information.
I think it's totally possible that could be a reason, there could be a plethora of reasons, you just happened to use that as an example, being overly defensive like that could suggest that is the actual answer. Either way there could be a different one too, but seeing as you had the luxury of being able to claim when you want, last, and under no pressure, I have every reason to believe you prepared the fake claim last second, as if waiting to build your claim around what everyone else claimed. The behavior in question is about responses to cerulean that occured before you divulged the information about your night 1 action, you could tailor that information however you wanted based on ceruleans claim and responses to your role.
But since we’re framing rhetorical questions in this way, I’d argue that the question you just asked about if I thought scum would confess an ability is worse here. It’s proof you either severely misunderstand what’s going on here, or are pretending to. My money is starting to go on the former.
This reads like a threat "If you keep on this route of suspecting me I might turn this around on you. so watch yourself". Why would you be threatening me with a read, you either do or you don't scum read me. It's convenient that the reads suddenly strengthens when I start asking you some light questions. You are getting very defensive :)
Sure, but even with that as a given, shaky justifications are a good thing to look into.
There's been a lot of discussions about most or a lot of these roles having shaky justifications. Im not too familiar with this game to really dig deep into that stuff anyway. Right now I am more focused on people's behavior.
They have no reason to hit outside of those targets.First things first, you are the only player in this game who had not revealed their role while claiming an active role.
They have plenty of reason to hit outside those targets.
1. Again, the threat of a doctor being one. If your saying those three targets are "obvious" wouldn't scum want to try and hit outside of the group of people most likely to prevent their kill?
2. There was three unclaimed individuals, me you and cerulean. Just because I claimed an active role didn't neccesarily mean my role was a threat to them. Also you could have been lying about being a passive role, and secretly BEEN the doctor. Same with cerulean. Unclaimed townies seem like a pretty big threat. Look at the role you have. If your role is true it could be a huge negative for mafia, they have no reason to assume your role isn't a threat because you claimed it was passive.
To suggest that you KNEW you weren't a viable target enough to risk allowing game changing information to not be revealed, also suggests you have inside information, and knew you wouldn't be targeted, as if you were the one with the ability to direct the night kill...
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@whiteflame
Banana's claim conspicuously differs. It does mention one character (Captain Mosely, notably not mentioned by anyone else), but doesn't reference specific actions taken by the character, saying what Major Neitsch generally does for the team, his capabilities, and that "aided the missions success." That's vague in a way none of the other claims or specific PMs have been
I admire the analysis, but I am sorry, this is a case of apophenia. I've been completely honest with you about my character and my role.
I've had some reason to second-guess Banana much of this game, particularly her initial response to WyIted's flip.
My action went through, so I knew that wylted couldn't have died...
The Watcher/Tracker is certainly a big swing and if this was a normal game from Pie where scum only got to ask about two roles, that might have changed my mind here. But scum got to ask about any four roles or characters. They could have just picked four roles and found that neither a Watcher nor a Tracker was in this game. I'm not sussing her because of that, but I also can't treat it as a meaningful counter to my other reasons for sussing her.
Then why mention it, if its something you aren't sussing me for? What exactly are you sussing me for? Saying that scum could have fake claimed my role isn't really an argument I can respond too...
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@Mharman
I simply misunderstood the situation with that. Cerulean pointed it out me.
I seen that, but I am not talking about that. In your head, what was the reason for holding the information? What did you think waiting to reveal it was going to do? Did you think the mafia was going to confess to an extra ability?
Are you arguing that I withheld the information because I hadn’t made said info up yet? You really think I would fake claim without everything ready?
I just asked you a question, your the one getting defensive and jumping to these conclusions. Sure they are possible though. I was just asking what is going through your head...
Furthermore, and comments on the character and justification? I notice that’s lacking from your read.
I haven't really looked into them. Comments about my character and whiteflames character was a response to the "your character is weak" argument only. Whiteflame pointed out that because mafia get to ask questions about characters available, theres limited things we can accomplish by looking too much into this category.
Where did I say that? I didn’t.
You gambled that the kill was between me whiteflame and lunatic, meaning you didn't consider mafia would be worried about a doctor and have motivation to hit outside those targets. I don't see why you wouldn't consider yourself a likely night target, so much that you would gamble making your role completely useless.
i already answered this
Where? Why not just indulge me and answer it again, unless your talking about the "not seeing ceruleans point" which isn't an answer.
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@Mharman
I am withholding the NP1 result out of concerns the two pieces of information might be related; specifically, I’m concerned if I reveal it will give scum a hint. Do not openly speculate about this.
NP1 I was told that someone in this game has a hidden aspect to their role
Why does waiting to reveal this make any sense?
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@Mharman
what don’t you like about mine? Idc too much for Ceruean’s either
Not really your claim, just the choice to withhold the information, I don't understand what it accomplished.
It wasn’t hope. As you get better at the game you learn to make predictions. Last DP, I had predicted the kill was between you, Whiteflame, with Lunatic only being an outside chance. All three of you had claimed active abilties, so I knew I wasn’t going to be a target.
Why didn't you think there was a protection role? Also what did withholding your information actually accomplish?
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@Earth
At first, Banana should be a really easy scumread for me, especially after reporting that I visited Lunatic, I did not. However the idea that there is a redirector and confirmation that redirector can affect me kinda makes me feel like there is a chance that Banana is town and Mafia is relatively busted. I wonder who her partner is though, because she has been rather lax and there is a nagging feeling that mafia is actually Mhar and Cerulean.
it could be mharman and cerulean, if they redirected me, it would make sense. if you are mafia my question is why you wouldn't have just said you used your role on whiteflame anyway instead of lie about it. it could be because you are hoping to mislynch me, but yeah I am also considering that it is mharman and cerulean, I don't really like either of their claims.... I really fail to understand why mharman didn't reveal any of his information and gambled saving information on the hope he wouldn't be night killed... It doesn't make any sense to me. Out of the two I think mharman is scummier.
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@Moozer325
Okay, fair enough. I must have misread because you spent a lot of time on Whiteflame and barely even mentioned Earth.
I am currently town reading Whiteflame for the record just theory crafting about how his role interacts with other players and what that means for their seemingly not being a roleblocker in the game since no one has apparently been blocked.
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What about Earth? Is your PoE really those three? Because Earth is my number one scum read, and I’d figure you’d have him higher since either he was redirected, or he’s lying, or you’re lying (but from your POV you’d know that you aren’t)
Earth is in my POE. Mharman cerulean and earth are my POE. Only way earth is town is if I was redirected, but I am not insta voting him because that is actually a plausibility seeing as whiteflames role would otherwise be useless as no one as claimed a role blocking ability and ceruleans and wylteds don’t appear to interact with a strengthener.
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What’s interesting is that the only two roles that could prevent a role it doesn’t seem like strengthener can interact with. Whiteflame said his role doesn’t interact with wylteds and pie couldn’t answer about the muse since it’s still a hypothetical role. But I don’t see how his role could interact with it.
Whiteflame could be lying but he was the one who initially drew attention to the point that there isn’t evidence of any f a roleblocker. So the likelihood that either Whiteflame was lying or earth was actually redirected seems a bit higher, and I don’t think Whiteflame is lying because he was the one who drew attention to the fact.
Ceruleans role feels a bit scummy to me though.
So does mharmans, more so his choice not to give information he had until day phase three and risked letting himself die twice without giving out any information. It’s pretty convienent he is still alive to give this information now. I also don’t see why it was imperative for him to wait to last to claim any of this.
Anyways my POE is still the same I guess but all three have equal reasons for me to be suspicious of them.
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@whiteflame
I don’t see this argument going anywhere, I suppose we can agree to disagree. My point isn’t that I am town confirmed or anything so it’s kind of redundant to argue, my point was the hypocrisy in which some claims are viewed in light of others but that’s largely perspective. Mharman sees your character as stronger than mine, I do not based on my own role pm. My only question is whether he actually believes it or if it’s more convenient to believe your character is of less importance. Note he doesn’t ever really explain why, you have more than he has.
Anyways my PoE is exactly mharman, earth or cerulean. Both scum have to be in this group. Only way earth can be town is if he was redirected. I am not entirely sure if I believe that or not, but am willing to consider the possibility.
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@whiteflame
As for your last point, my main issue with it is that it’s modpsych. Almost every time I’ve had someone dictate to me what role must be in the game or could not possibly be in the game, if I’ve used to make a decision, it’s blown up in my face. Likelihood that in any random game would include this role just isn’t going to convince me, and considering you’re not referencing past Pie games, it’s not even specific to his tastes for roles like this.
Again I didn’t say it’s impossible for the role to be replaced. But you said my argument is weak, and I don’t see why it would be considered weak when every game I’ve played in has a certain role it would seem odd or different to me to see a game without that role. At the very least you should take this argument with a grain of salt instead of treating it with outright dismissal. Everyone keeps devaluing every point I make, or saying that it’s less impactful than it is or should be. Is it simply to be contrarian or do you actually believe a role claim that exists in most games should not be looked at as if it’s non existence is an outlier?
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@whiteflame
It strikes me as odd that you would reduce my character’s role to opening a door when you’ve clearly done your research into the character. I’m not sure how I’m reading that, though I’ll note that I’m not actively sussing you just for having a minor character.
I am basing this off of what you yourself claimed about the character.
I get the distinct impression that he did sus my character when I claimed it. It’s only been because of behavioral reads that he’s changed his mind since then. You’ve been distinctly harder to read on that front.
In my opinion, so has he.
Weaker argument. Trackers and Watchers are common, but I’ve seen them replaced with a Motion Detector before. I’ve seen them just be entirely absent. Usual game design isn’t going to inform my pick.
Your argument here is somewhat perplexing. I am only stating that a version of watcher or tracker has existed in the majority of games I’ve played not that it’s impossible for a game not to have one of these roles. If you are to dismiss my argument as weak here purely for the notion you have seen this role replaced on occasion with some of the variant roles, you are still admitting it’s less likely for these variant roles to outright replace a watcher or tracker, meaning my argument isn’t all that weak…
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@whiteflame
That seems… more than a little reductive. Not saying my character is massively important, but saying that all he did was hold open a door is a different story.
Agree to disagree. Your character doesn’t even come up when initially reading the wiki about the mission, if I google him specifically I find him though. My point is that you are in my opinion a minor character, but I still think you are basically town confirmed. Casting suspicion on my character for being minor for appearing in one mission ignores other factors of importance about my character, I just find it interesting that mharman points it out about my character but is seemingly okay with yours and is willing to accept the notion of a strengthener existing over a watcher and or tracker. Btw in almost every game I’ve played in one of these has existed.
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@whiteflame
Mharman is pretty clear about where he sees distinction between your and my character, though they are both clearly minor. Don’t think I agree based on what I’ve read that mine is more minor, but that’s arguable.
The entire significance of your character was to open a door? The character doesn’t speak a single word the whole mission? Idk but it seems pretty minor in comparison to the guy behind the desk giving directions to the main characters in my Opinion
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@whiteflame
@Mharman
My role pm does mention that I occur in only one mission but pie goes out of his way to elaborate how crucial the mission is to the stories plot considering it’s concerning weapons of mass destruction. But mharman all the things you pointed out about my character being minor equally apply to whiteflames character, in fact his seems even more minor than mine but you aren’t suspecting him for it.
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I am going to Unvote because Whiteflame pointed out that his role wouldn’t exist unless there was a roleblocker or redirect or something, which I honestly hadn’t thought of. And we have no one claiming to be blocked, so it there is a chance earth is telling the truth here. I’m willing to consider it at least.
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Also Whiteflame is confirmed town otherwise he bussed earth, and he was gunning for earth hard last day phase. It could be a bus but it seemed like he was genuinely frustrated with him. Partner of earth has to be mharman or cerulean
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@whiteflame
I am the RSO on the blackbird during an important mission and guide people to and from locations, basically is my justification
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I’m a bit busy atm I’ll check in a couple hours from now
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@Earth
Well unless you were redirected you are scum and lying. So. Yeah.
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Hello. I am Major Neitsch, I am a 1x watcher and 1x tracker. NP1 I watched lunatic thinking he was the most likely night kill, no one visited him. Np2 I tracked earth as he was my biggest suspicion. He visited lunatic.
Vtl earth.
I was also was invited to a pm last night but I cannot join the link. I’d guess that’s because lunatic is dead.
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@Earth
@whiteflame
I am not lurking just actually have been busy last few days. If you tag me in a post im more likely to remember to check the thread because I get an email for it whenever someone tags me. Outside of that, I am not the best at scum hunting. I think we should switch gears from earth, he feels town to me, I am kind of interested in mharman, he usually seems more "into it" than he is here, not bashing on his activity because im inactive too, just seems a general lack of interest compared to normal, could be a difference in affiliation? Idk.
vtl mharman
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@whiteflame
Just leaves you, Banana. Did you commit a night action?
My action was not blocked that I can tell.
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@Moozer325
I’m a daytime role so nothing from me. Most likely explanation is that WyIted used his Martry
If he used his martyr then wouldn't there be no night kill?
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Sorry I have been busy. Should be more active soon. I am around and available to vote. Seems we still have time so I will wait for bullish to post.
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@WyIted
And what happens when that player ends up being a really strong town role?
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Do you think scum would be more likely to push for or against softclaims in this case?
Honestly going from the last game, pushing people into claiming resulted in a lot of townies feeling like they had to lie and mislynches. I don’t know much about this theme but if what people are saying is true that it is easy to narrow down claims than scum would want more claims early so they are less likely to be caught lying with them right? If they can ask 4 questions then the more information they have about what not to claim the easier it will be to ask those questions.
But on the other side, how do you pressure someone you suspect if you aren’t pursuing a claim? So idk I’m 50/50
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@Casey_Risk
What question in 55?
That wasn’t a post by you?
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@Vader
Banana actually played well. If I survived DP4 (obviously hindsight now) but I deffo would've thought harder about Banana.
Thanks.
Yeah Banana played fine
Thanks still getting used to the game, I am sure I could have done better, but I have never played a role like this before, so I decided complete compliance with town was the best option...
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I am a little dis-appointed that I didn't suspect lunatic earlier. That said, GG everyone, was a fun game... My team made some interesting decisions, but I can't judge them, I've been there before.
Good game.
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@ILikePie5
I am Ivan the terrible the first Russian tsar who greatly expanded russias territory. In a fit of rage Ivan killed his son and it was made into a famous painting, which is why I am the 1x executioner.
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@ILikePie5
Okay, then why is Cerulean town?
He might not be. But wasn’t most of the entire basis for scumreading him based on there being three protection roles? We now there was only 2. Also why would they claim protect the night kill target and not just lie about protecting someone else? Also if he’s a roleblocker he wasted two role locks on a useless role and everyone town read Vader. I don’t see it.
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@ILikePie5
What is your justification for why Ivan IV is the Executor based on your PM
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@ILikePie5
If Lunatic is scum, who is his partner and why?
I am thinking you actually. You guys have been basically controlling the game from the beginning and leading mislynch after mislynch.
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@Lunatic
What is there to have independent thoughts about? we’ve been lynching off of your results this whole time. I thought you were town, and was going based on that.
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Well I am town. So lunatic must be scum…. I have complied with everything town has asked from me and was honest about my role from the beginning. I hope you can trust me.
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