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@Discipulus_Didicit
Only if you count their presence in the Super Smash Bros games. You would think that, given my love for anime and strategic video games, this would have been an obvious choice for me, but not so. I'm only familiar with this series in the broadest of senses. Still, willing to do some research into my character to figure this theme out a bit, though I'm sure I'll need more before I can say anything worthwhile. By the by, definitely thought of this when I saw my character's name:
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@Wylted
@Vader
@ILikePie5
@Polyglot
Hey guys, DP1 is up!
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@Earth
Usually a good idea to tag everyone so that we know that this has started.
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@drlebronski
Among psychological anime, Death Note has a claim to being one of the best, one that's well deserved. I wouldn't say it's objectively the best anime, though.
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@drlebronski
There is also an actual label for fascist, though, and it's pretty distinct.
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@drlebronski
Pretty sure that's what his readout says "Libertarian Socialist"
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@drlebronski
A lot of us took this a while back.
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@MisterChris
Generally don't do a lot of patting myself on the back, but appreciate it!
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@MisterChris
@fauxlaw
Congrats on getting into the HoF!
Also, congrats to coal, Undefeatable, oromagi and Fruit_Inspector for getting their debates in!
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Don't have a strong opinion on any of the threads, so I'll restrict my vote to a debate. While my live debate with blamonkey is certainly worthy of attention, I think that
Resolved: Violent revolution is a just response to political oppression
is the better choice for going into the HoF, as if my insanely long RFD didn't give that away.
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@Lunatic
@Wylted
@ILikePie5
Well, that was a hell of a game. Really came down to the wire.
Luna, you absolutely had me fooled for the majority of game. Really, the only knock I had against you started in DP2 when MC was NK'd. My first thought was "why wasn't it Luna?" and after that, the fact that you were still alive stood out to me. Still, didn't really start sussing you in earnest until DP4.
Pie was just really effective at pursuing lynches. It was a pleasure to work with him at the end there. And good on you as well, Wylted, for figuring it out. I honestly wasn't sure if I'd made a convincing case (maybe I didn't and you already knew how you were going to vote before I posted), but in the end, it was your vote that made our win possible.
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@Polyglot
Well that’s that. Whiteflame stole the win from town.
Seriously, why are you guys still trying to sell this? Why wouldn't I be making a big deal of our victory if I was scum? What would I possibly have to lose at this point?
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@ILikePie5
He’s gonna deny it till his last breath lol
Luna's last breath coming soon to a DP5 near you.
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@ILikePie5
I’m not scum. Why don’t you confess now you ruthless murderer.If I was scum I’d be on a victory lap rn lol
Yeah, my experience with you is that you don't tend to wait after you've secured a victory. Haven't seen anyone who's dead popping in here, either.
Pretty sure this game is solved unless Wylted just played all of us.
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@Lunatic
Looks like mafia win this one then
...Seriously doubt that.
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@ILikePie5
If you’re scum it’s gg not much I can do
Yup, that's the one thing I've had to eliminate as an option to make this simple. If Wylted is scum, then he deserves to win this.
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@Wylted
I'd say it's been pretty clear since before that long exchange between Luna and Pie that they knew their fortunes were aligned with Poly and me, respectively.
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@Polyglot
Wylted was only right about Speedrace and then was roleblocked and we are not even sure if the investigation on Lunatic is correct or not. So how can we certainly trust Wylted’s investigation when it has only given us one good result.
It's a whole lot more likely that he got the correct result than that there's a sudden Framer or Redirector play in this game that we've never seen before. If either you or Luna have one of those roles, you would have used it before now. I'll also note that Luna just coincidentally happened to target you with his supposed Tracker and found that you didn't move. If we assume that he was telling the truth (we shouldn't), how could we be sure that that result was trustworthy? A Redirector applies to Trackers as well as it does to Cops. I should know.
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@Wylted
I will also say that how I've seen people explain the results of these night actions just doesn't make sense. There's clearly some kind of role block in play, but we have no reason to believe there is a Framer or Redirector. All of Wylted's previous results have been correct, but things suddenly change in NP3? What a coincidence! I don't know why they decided not to RB you, Wylted, but you should trust your results.
I'll leave off here. I've got more than enough to handle at work, and I can't take more time away from it to dredge through more examples or make more points. This is the strongest case I have, and at this point, it's not up to me. At this point, Wylted, you know that your vote is the only one that really matters. Whoever you vote against will be the lynch. So I'll leave it to you.
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@Wylted
As for me, there's just not a lot to say. I've claimed vanilla, despite knowing what most of the roles were before my claim. If I wanted a PR, I had more than enough options, and I easily could have waited to get others before I gave mine. It would have been a lot easier for me to buy into the role madness supposition. That's also my MO as scum - feel free to look back at any of the games I've been scum and you'll see I don't have the best track record for fake claims, but they've all been PRs. This would be an extremely strange game for me to flip the script.
More importantly, like with Poly and Luna, it's not just about me. I've second-guessed my views on Pie multiple times in this game, but none of what he's done here is out of the ordinary for his normal town play, and he's sussed both Poly and me at various points throughout the previous DPs. Maybe you think this is just good bussing on his part, throwing some shade at his scum partner to make himself look clean, but I'd say that's far less of a tell than basically leaving your likely partner alone throughout 3 previous DPs aside from giving them cover from claims made against them.
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@Wylted
Alright, big analysis post incoming.
Anyone else see the palpable hypocrisy in so much of what Luna's been saying this DP? He's scum-reading Pie for talking about likely scenarios that could exist with scum in this game, which Luna did several times over the last few DPs, and he says he's not worried about having the last word, then posts 4 times after Pie's last post. Even he has to know that, at this point, this looks desperate.
The question for Wylted to answer, though, is whether that desperation stems from him trying to win this game for town or for scum. You know my answer, but I think it's important to lay out the case.
To start, I'll remind you that it's pretty damn clear at this point that the scum team must break down to one of two pairings:
Luna and Poly
Pie and me
So all this discussion of whether Luna or Pie are scum is really only half of the picture. If Poly is scum, so is Luna. If I'm scum, so is Pie. Luna himself agreed to this framing.
I think the case against Poly is as clear as it is for anyone remaining. I thought his claim was scummy when I first read it. So did Pie. So did Wylted. The Beloved Princess claim seems tailor-made to avoid getting lynched (that's why it's a popular scum fake claim), and it certainly achieved that purpose. The fact that he decided not to claim for as long as he did isn't actually what set me off, but rather that he posted several times after three things happened:
Wylted posted calling for his claim
Disc and I claimed
Poly was pressured
Not once, in any of the 3 posts that Poly made after these events, did Poly acknowledge that any of these 3 things had happened. Instead, several hours later, he just posts his claim outright after receiving a second vote. Luna later argued that he only felt the need to claim under pressure, but considering that the pressure only changed by a single vote and he wasn't at L-1, I find it hard to believe that Wylted's vote on him was somehow the catalyst for his claim. I'll also note that Poly has absolutely posted the least across all the DPs up to this point. That wouldn't stand by itself as a reason to sus him, but in combination with his lack of responsiveness in DP3, a near-complete lack of reads until DP3, and an obvious lack of analysis in this DP (some of which is clearly just clearly not thinking - Speed was obviously killed because he would have been the only absolutely town-confirmed player after Disc's flip, not because scum wanted to keep Wylted alive for some reason) make him look pretty obviously sus to me.
As for Luna, I think the best case against him is still the lack of interaction with Poly. Poly tagged Luna a grand total of one time across all the DPs, and that was to lightly sus Disc in DP2. He's mentioned Luna in all of two posts, one where he gave his full reads, and one during this DP when it would be most glaring for him not to show some interest in Luna. And, of course, he did it in his first post, using the opportunity to defend Luna. Seems pretty odd that the most high-profile interactions between these two (Luna's derailing of the lynch DP3 and this statement by Poly, which is the only defensive statement I've seen him make of anyone apart from himself in any of the DPs this game) have been with the aim of preventing a lynch on the other. Luna can say what he wants about my and Pie's interactions, but at least they're varied and involve some statements of uncertainty about one another. I can't find anything in this game that either Luna or Poly have said about each other that gives any indication that they would consider the other potential scum.
Luna's been exceptionally good at keeping himself under the radar, and I've fallen for it over much of this game, but one thing that always stood out to me is that he's somehow still alive. I can think of one game where he survived this far in, and that was the Mime Mafia game from several months back. Not only was his behavior in that game significantly different and far more incisive with everyone, including his null reads, but the dynamics of that game were so different that I could buy him surviving that late. Luna leads lynches and he's good at it. Scum would know that. Scum would have eliminated him as soon as possible. It's one thing to look at examples like Oro and Speed being NK'd, but was anyone else surprised that MC was the NK during NP2? Just the fact that Luna has been alive as long as he has in this game should make him suspicious, but the fact that he's clearly buddying Wylted hard this DP while Pie has been actively just trying to address Luna's points should give him away just as well.
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Alright, that's all for me tonight. I need to sleep, so I'll post more extensive thoughts tomorrow.
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@Lunatic
Ironically I was going to point the same thing out about pie and whiteflame. Other than pie responding to whiteflames post 190 there's barely been any interaction.
I... honestly don't know what you're reading.
From DP3:
From DP1:
I barely posted in DP2, so it's not surprising that we didn't interact there. I've tagged him seven times across 2 DPs. I only skimmed DP3 from him, but he tagged me 4 times there alone. There's been plenty of interaction between us.
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@Wylted
I've got thoughts on my top 2 scum reads, and right now, they're Poly and Luna. I honestly don't see any possible way that Pie is on a scum team with Poly after he pushed for that lynch in DP3, and considering I was on that same wagon, I'd honestly like to see someone justify me bussing him that hard in order to implicate me.
This largely comes down to whether you believe that it's a Poly/Luna or Pie/me. I honestly don't see any other way this plays out. Luna appears to be pushing the latter narrative, and Pie the former. I mean to post a lot of examination of the matter when I can get my thoughts together after a decent night's sleep, but I wanted to post this beforehand to get at least this much out there.
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@ILikePie5
The key thing I notice after my first half-read/half-skim is that there are zero conversations between Poly and Lunatic.The closest thing is the derailment of the Poly wagon last DP. But I don’t think they’ve pinged each other once which is really really odd.
It's rather late on my end and I have to get some sleep, so I can't post my full thoughts until tomorrow, but I've been through enough of the past few DPs to notice that, yes, you are correct that they have no direct interactions. That stands out to me as well.
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@Wylted
I think you should follow your own advice and read through the previous DPs before locking in a vote. You said this is extremely important to get right. It is. Take your time with it.
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I’ve got thoughts, but I’m going to follow Wylted’s lead here and put them in context with the previous DPs before I place any votes or explain my reasoning. I’m throwing out every preconception I have before I read back through everything, so this will take a hot second.
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@Lunatic
Yeah, that would be enough. Just to be sure, though:
VTL Disc
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Well, guess I got to this late, just got back from work. I’d have hammered as well.
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Suffice it to say that this list would be very long if I gave everything. I'll try to give my favorite per category.
Sci-Fi: Dead heat between Cat's Cradle by Kurt Vonnegut, Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card and Ready Player One by Ernest Cline (the latter two both had pretty meh movie adaptations, unfortunately). Honorable mention to Sirens of Titan by Kurt Vonnegut.
Fiction: I'll have to break this down further. Favorite series is the Mistborn Trilogy by Brandon Sanderson (honorable mention to the Stormlight Archive by the same author). Favorite single book is Sabriel by Garth Nix (honorable mentions to both Warbreaker by Brandon Sanderson and The Dragon Reborn by Robert Jordan).
Historical Fiction: Catch-22 by Joseph Heller. My all-time favorite novel. Honorable mention to Burr by Gore Vidal, which is honestly less fiction and more history, though it still technically falls into this camp.
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@Lunatic
@Speedrace
I'm honestly a little baffled by these last two posts. You have to know that a lynch on Luna is extremely unlikely this DP. I know I'd be willing to consider him later, but you'll have to do a lot better than pointing out that he's shifted around his lynch targets. I don't agree with Wylted that it's a towntell, but it's not particularly indicative of him being scum either, and I can find little other reason to sus him right now.
As for your reasoning for picking Pie, that makes even less sense to me. I understand picking someone who you townread, but choosing the same target twice doesn't exactly scream "unpredictable" to me, nor does it make a whole lot of sense to try to be unpredictable during NP1 when no one knew your role.
This is pretty lazy reasoning for Speed, and we've been burned by him being inactive and lazy with his posts before. Gives me a lot more reason to sus DD now, given that they're linked.
What do you think, Luna?
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@Lunatic
There is no need to rush the phase. And if speed is scum he doesn't get to skate through this whole game scot free. He's done that too many times and I've learned my lesson.
Given that we still have 2 days, I'm inclined to agree with this. I'd like to see DD actually respond to being put at L-1, and for Speed to post in this DP. That will clarify my decision.
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@ILikePie5
If Disc flips scum, then I’d say WF is next in line.
Mind explaining this one to me? If DD flips scum, wouldn't that implicate Speed first and foremost, given that he's claimed to be a Doc Enabler? Not saying that it isn't plausible that DD saw Speed's claim and used it to craft a fake claim, but their claims are directly connected. I'm not at all clear on how his flipping scum implicates me.
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@ILikePie5
I'm considering it, though I'm not so sure that it's optimal. However, if the above is DD's response to being put at L-1, then I'm willing to do it. Just give me a bit to sort through my thoughts.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Should say “lynches” not “lunches” - gotta love that autocorrect.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I’ll post more extensively later when I get a chance, but I will note that I was clear that it was either Speed or Poly, not both. Discussion with Luna has opened it up a bit since then, but my point even back then was that it was Speed and you, or Poly and someone else, i.e. that there were two possible lunches, each of which would lead us down different routes in future DPs. Luna has argued that it’s either Speed or Pie, despite the fact that they are most definitely not a scum team. Does that make his argument contrived as well?
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@coal
There is essentially no risk to human health presented by either JJ or AZ vaccines. Claims otherwise are frivolous.
I agree that the risks of those two vaccines is essentially null, just felt the need to point out that, even at that level, a huge effort was put out to test those concerns.
Are you talking about Brett Weinstein? If not, who?I've seen a lot of nonsense from people who argue that vaccines are encouraging the formation of "deadly variants." That, too, is in the category of vaccines-cause-autism level misinformation.
Honestly couldn’t recall his name when I initially posted this, but that’s the one! Guy has some good points, though I have misgivings about many of them. Knows what he’s talking about, though.
And yeah, the deadly variant argument is bogus on many levels. There are numerous comparisons made to use of antibiotics yielding superbugs, and they frustrate me quite a bit because the people who make them absolutely do not understand the differences between bacterial and viral evolution, nor do they get the difference between a vaccine and an antibiotic.
All else is agreed wholeheartedly.
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@Fruit_Inspector
It's not so much that I'm trusting the government officials or organizations. It's simply very hard for me to believe that so many companies would actively falsify data on this large a scale, give the resulting vaccine out to so many people, and for their cover not to be immediately blown after the first million doses were injected. Hell, even cases like J&J and AstraZeneca where there were side effects found after the fact only came up when the population getting those shots increased dramatically above clinical trials numbers. As for scientific dissent, I will say that I've heard some intriguing arguments about the vaccine and the potential harms it could cause (at least from one or two people - honestly, the vast majority either don't know what they're talking about or are presenting something so rare and specific to very different viruses that it barely warrants discussion), though I also understand that they're fighting a PR war as much as anything else. Not saying that censorship is warranted (if anything, it tends to give many of these people far more credence than they deserve), but I can at least understand why they're doing it.
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@Lunatic
I appreciate the analysis. I'd be willing to consider either lynch, but I do have to note that it's a bit odd for scum to tie their fates together so closely. If Speed did flip scum, DD would easily be the next target, since his claim is absolutely tied to Speed's. If there is no Doc in this game, then there is no need for a Doc Enabler. Much as I buy the idea that he'd play like this as scum (he did do it before, as you say), I don't think that he'd prep this fake claim with DD. That seems more half-assed than I'm willing to buy at the moment. So, if we're considering these two, I think the case you're making against Pie is more persuasive.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Page 1 notes: Three ppl claimed (me wf and wylted) but only Wylted and I seemed to have actual reasons for doing so (I wanted town to know speed is town and wylted wanted to give town investigation results) no pressure claims are not inherently suspicious but I don't see any reason for wf to do so if he really is vanilla town.
The reason is largely because I was already sussed by multiple people during the previous DP. If I had been intransigent, the result would have been pretty similar, except I would have reached it with several votes on me instead and I anticipated a mislynch if that happened. It's not like my giving away my role did anything to harm town, either.
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@Lunatic
Four, there could actually be just two scum so participating on the lynch and putting us at MYLO will still make them look bad. Hammer analysis isn't relevant here yet, I feel like Pie is really pushing that too hard.
I find that hard to believe, but fine, I'll take your point. At the moment, I'm having trouble finding any other avenues that give me much in the way of information to work from, so I'm open to suggestions.
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I’m kind of split on the analysis of Pie’s points.
On the one hand, it’s entirely possible that Speed just isn’t on, so saying that he’s town because he hasn’t VTL’d yet is a bit problematic. That doesn’t work so well for DD or you, since both of you have been on and posting while Poly was at L-1, but I can at least see a reason to continue considering Speed as possible scum.
On the other hand, I don’t buy this argument about not being implicated. Pie and I would be top of the list of any implications if we’re wrong, and scum would know to trust the Beloved Princess claim if Poly wasn’t scum, setting themselves up for an easy win if they hammer.
The problem here is that Poly’s still alive after reaching L-1. There are a few explanations for that. One is that DD just didn’t seize on the opportunity when presented to him, which, given the length of time he had to make that choice and his continued activity over that time (the only reason I could find him giving against voting was that he wanted to extend the DP), I’d have trouble believing. I doubt you’d miss the opportunity as scum, which gives me less reason to sus you now.
Two is that Speed isn’t around and that’s the reason that there was no hammer. That would make it likely that one scum is on the lynch. This is plausible.
Three is that no scum is on the lynch and Poly is scum, so if he has a scum partner as we presume, then they are unwilling to hammer for the sake of protecting him. I’d say that this is also plausible.
So, to my mind, what we’ve done this DP makes it pretty straightforward: we either lynch Poly or Speed. Unless we’re considering the unlikely scenario where someone else is doing something very strange and against their better interests, I can’t see another option.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I’d say this is a two-sided problem. It’s a mistake to lynch him based solely on the claim. It’s also a mistake to remove him as a suspect based solely on the claim. There’s a risk to removing him, particularly with that role, but it’s also a common fake claim for that very reason.
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@Lunatic
We should consider our options a little closer is all I am suggesting. If at the end of 3 days we need to lynch poly based on having the worst behavior, I am down for that
I’m fine with that. I’ve got additional thoughts, but I’ll post them when I have time to sit down and type them out.
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Anyway, I just got off of teaching a class and I'm starving. I'll come back on in a bit.
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