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@Discipulus_Didicit
Town. Honestly, with only one informational role, I was basically town confirmed as of DP2.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Pie's dead. I tracked Supa. Supa visited Pie. Honestly, not the best choice of targets for Supa/Poly, since we now have a partial CC on Supa's claim. Even if I hadn't targeted Supa, I'd be sussing him. The only possibility is that they somehow monkeyed with my role, but I think it's incredibly unlikely that there's a redirector involved here. Pretty straightforward.
VTL Supa
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@ILikePie5
I think if Poly flips scum, Supa is implicated. I remember when he was scum with you, he used the MafiaScum version of Oracle. The Actor that Poly described comes off of MafiaScum.My bodyguard is essentially a weak bodyguard because of the 50% mechanic.Innocent Child is a great substitute for a Cop in the game and with a Tracker and two vanillas the game seems pretty balanced.
I'm not certain who I would implicate as his scum partner. At the moment, it's between you and Supa. I'd say that the mafiascum link isn't particularly persuasive to me, mainly because when Supa and I were a scum team, we both arrived at our fake claims separately. I don't see him feeding claim options to Poly, though I don't rule it out.
As for yours being a weak BG, from my knowledge, yours would actually be a strong BG. A weak BG would be that you just die in place of your target if they are the target of the NK. This sounds like what you said from the start, a sort of coin flip Doc or BG.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
You should really read this post. He claimed what it says on mafiascum first, then he claimed in post #9 that his role actually was "I’m only killed if I don’t hammer each day phase." Those are two completely different explanations for how his role works, and his response to my pointing that out was to say that Earth may have changed how certain roles worked.
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@Polyglot
If you end up being town after all this, I still won't regret lynching you. I don't care if you're town or scum, this kind of play is just absurd.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
From what I've read, it's often town-aligned when it exists, but it almost never exists in practice. It's so unheard of and impossible to prove that it's more often given as a fake claim than as an actual one. So even if he'd been consistent with it and hadn't immediately hammered after giving it, I'd still sus him. All of that just makes it all the more obvious.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
That checks out. I tracked you last night and was told you didn't go anywhere. It's possible that this is a fake claim and, if there are two scum, that you just didn't perform the NK. However, given the reality that we already have a vanilla, it's plausible that we have a second. Whatever behavioral reads I have on you are nowhere near sufficient for me to change my target this DP, and given that the only thing that we're missing is Pie's target, I feel like the lynch on Poly is a given at this point.
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@Polyglot
...Dude, at minimum, you should own that this issue was your mistake and not pass the buck to the mod. Presuming that the role description you just gave is the correct one, YOU gave the wrong one in DP2. That's on you, and that inconsistency (between two separate characterizations of your role that you gave) is glaringly obvious and clearly designed to give you some kind of defense against the argument I was making that you should have claimed earlier.
I'll also note that even the new claim would have been testable if you had claimed back in DP1, though by DP2, it would have likely just ended the game if we had chose to VTNL. I'll also note that this actually looks a lot worse for you because we were at VTNL-1 for an awfully long time during DP2 and you were on several times over that period. If I had chosen to hammer at any point over that period and your description is accurate, then the game would already be over and scum would have won. This claim makes you actively more anti-town than the original one.
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@Vader
Was actually surprised they didn’t target me, but their expectation that you or Pie would protect me would make the most sense of it. I’m also reading back through before I provide my results.
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@Polyglot
Well, you just gave yourself away. This is what you said during the last DP:
I’m the Actor, and I only have the ability to hammer on the votes, otherwise I will be modkilled
That aligns with the role on mafiascum. Essentially, you can only vote if that vote is a hammer. If you vote any other time, you are modkilled. That makes sense. This:
I’m only killed if I don’t hammer each day phase.
Is what you’re claiming now. It’s not the same, since you’re saying that you are now required to be the hammer on every lynch. I’ve never heard of that role. It’s certainly not the Actor, and someone who had spent 2 whole DPs researching that role would certainly know the difference.
I still want to see Disc’s claim, but if I needed any other reason to lynch you, I just got it, and I can’t see any reason why I’d lynch anyone else over you.
VTL Poly
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@Polyglot
Alright, let’s talk about your claim.
How much research would you really have to do to understand such a role? It’s straightforward and would likely say everything in your PM. To say that you somehow breadcrumbed your role by saying that you needed to research it does not make any sense to me. It’s not complex at all. All that sounds like is an excuse for why you didn’t claim earlier.
Look at every other role claim thus far. I’m having suspicions of Pie’s claim now because it’s also an outlier for its complexity, but all of them are bog standard roles. BG, Vanilla, Tracker, Doc, Innocent Child. Not a single one stands out as rare or niche aside from yours. Maybe Disc will break that trend, but I think not.
Finally, let’s talk about how you played that. You claimed, then immediately VTNL’d, providing absolutely no time for discussion. If we had discussed it, there would have been the opportunity to test it by having you vote. If you had done that, and you were town, we could have been at the exact same point we are now early in DP2, except without the obvious choice of sussing you as we are now. We’d also still have Wylted, who was pretty unlikely to become the target of the lynch. That would have been better for POE than what we have now. And that’s how town would play this role: give your side the opportunity to discuss what to do with a role that has pretty clear negative town utility early on. This should be a policy claim, as far as I’m concerned. Instead, you did the one thing that you knew would make it impossible to test the role, since it would just end the game if we did now. Pray tell, how is any of this reasonable town play with this role? And why do you think there was any chance of a mislynch when there was no ongoing wagon with more than 1 person on it at any point in that DP?
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@Polyglot
Did not get a chance to comment on your role claim last DP. Thank you for providing it, even if it was incredibly late. Just the fact that it took you this long to claim makes you automatically the most sus person in this DP. If this is you playing as scum, this kind of play is pretty terrible for covering for yourself, and if this is you as town, then you play is so anti-town that your lynch is effectively necessary to make sure that we can play normally.
But speaking on the specifics of your claim... yeah, it seems fake. I don't think there is any chance that Earth has this kind of role in his game. It's a pretty niche role, I've never seen it used before, and I doubt that his first modded game would include something so clearly strange. I think you're the automatic lynch target for what appears to be an obvious fake claim and for your behavior in the last DP, but also because if you just VTNL'd as a town Actor, you just screwed us. Getting yourself modkilled would have at least reduced the potential scum pool, and if you had claimed earlier in the DP, I would have suggested as much. Instead, you drew attention to yourself and are virtually guaranteed to be the lynch target in this DP. Seriously, if this is you as town, I honestly have trouble coming up with ways to be more anti-town than you were in the last DP. This all looks scummy as hell. If it wasn't for the fact that I'd like some discussion to occur in this DP, I'd VTL you right now.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Going to need that role claim as soon as you get on. You're the only outlier at this point.
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Well, I guess I kind of get why Wylted said his role wasn't super useful, but that he wanted to wait until this DP to claim. I don't know about the rest of you, but I was getting a strong townread on him up to this point, so his role was really incidental.
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@Polyglot
...And you apparently popped on 3 minutes ago, while I was generating this post. Seriously, dude, do you even check your notifications?
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This has gone from ridiculous to unacceptable. Being absent entirely is one thing - life gets busy, it happens - but Poly keeps dipping online. He was online an hour ago, and he clearly does recognize that he should be posting more. The fact that he posted a little after midnight just to say nothing of importance and respond to absolutely no one is doing nothing but hurting this game for everyone.
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@Polyglot
And if you have any results to give from what you did during NP1, give them.
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@Polyglot
Poly, it’s good that you’re posting again, but seriously, at least respond to the posts in which we’ve tagged you several times already.
What is your role? You have no excuse not to full claim at this point.
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@Earth
@Polyglot
Alright, this shit with Poly is just ridiculous. Guy was on 4 hours ago, which means he's been on since we started tagging him again. Hell, he was probably on after Earth prodded him, but no post. Especially given that this is such a small game, there's no excuse for this BS. Earth, can you replace him if he doesn't post within the next 24 hours?
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
While we're here, since we haven't yet done this, I'd like to ask you both why you chose the targets that you did.
I understand Supa's decision to a greater degree because I feel like a lot of us were behaviorally reading Wylted as town by the end of the first DP, and I anticipated him being the target of the NK for that reason. The fact that he wasn't is a knock against him in my book, though Luna normally makes for a pretty appetizing target for scum regardless.
Pie, I assume that you townread me, though I'd like to know why you did and/or why you believed I might be the target of the NK.
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@Vader
Disc has a very good point about my claim and what not and I certainly can get behind his logic into why he scum reads, but his logic is contingent on the fact that Pie is 100% town and that I knew ahead of time what role Pie was. Even so, it's MYLO anyway, most people are gonna assume that a VTNL is in order so that our information we get is 100% correct. This batch of people is smart and wouldn't just jump to rush a lynch when unneeded too. It would then come down to 50/50 and as scum, you want to deviate as much pressure off you as you can, not throw it up in the air to a coin toss
Well, what we know (at least, what I know - depends on how much you buy my claim, though ATM, it's the only informational role claim) is that Pie visited me during NP1. He didn't RB me. He didn't NK me. It's possible that he's the Role Cop, found out that I'm the Tracker, and gave the BG as an excuse for having visited me last night in case I tracked him, but at least for right now, I have more reason to believe the BG claim than to doubt it. That doesn't mean I'm sussing you, and I gave reasons why I think his point is pretty flimsy on that front even if I presume that Pie is town (if anything, that kind of logic seems like more of a deliberate attempt to push attention elsewhere, which seems at least a little scummy to me).
All this being said, yes, I'm assuming that we will end this DP in a VTNL. I also have a pretty good indication of who scum will target during NP2, assuming that Poly doesn't claim or that he claims a non-informational role. Waiting until the next DP should yield more information and, hopefully, verify Pie's and/or your role in the process. Either that or we end up in much the same place as we are now, but with fewer people to eliminate from the potential scum pool.
Good point, but do note that they are in a different country, so timezones play a huge factor into when they can talk + activity. While it seems convenient, I can give some slack due to the drastic change in timezone
That would be sufficient reason if a) Poly hadn't been on in the last couple of hours and, thus, had the opportunity to post, b) if it hadn't been now over a day and a half since he posted anything at all, and c) if his contributions thusfar amounted to anything more than claiming his character (passing on the opportunity to provide any results or even state whether he has any), lightly sussing Disc, and then advocating for a VTNL in the very next post. I don't find it simple to excuse this behavior.
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@Polyglot
*Part of why I flagged you as potential scum in the last game is that you just happened to disappear when it was opportune to do so.
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@Polyglot
It has not gone unnoticed that you have been online and not posted on here despite having been tagged. Part of why I flagged you just happened to disappear when it was opportune to do so. Are you doing it again?
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@Wylted
Like Pie, I'd like to see Poly post again before I VTNL. As for Disc, I agree that he looks pretty scummy and would be willing to pursue a lynch, but I think the VTNL is still the way to go this DP.
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@Wylted
Since hasn't provided any information he may have garnered during the NP despite specific requests and has blatantly stated that he'd give such information if he had it, I'd be highly suspect of any information he provides in this DP past this point. This sussing of Supa seems pretty weakly supported.
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And hey, look at that, Rueters addressed this claim in detail already:
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@Wylted
The math in this article is so blatantly cherry-picked and absurdly restricted that it defies description, but setting all that aside, their conclusions are all based on the use of self-reports on VAERS, not actual data linking these vaccines to instances of miscarriage.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Yes, because I thought it was odd that you said you were convinced that Supa was scum, yet you didn't provide any reasoning. Aside from the debatable issue of whether two protective roles is too much, which could simply be the result of our mod's choices, everything here seems very WIFOM to me. It also just doesn't check out behaviorally. For someone who seemed so convinced, you've provided an awful lot of caveats when it comes to your reasoning.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
As far as I know, this is Earth's first game modding, so I wouldn't be too surprised if he had designed it with two protective roles despite the size. I also don't think it's terribly unreasonable. The best case scenario is that they protect two separate people out of the seven, achieving roughly 30% protection, though of course that assumes that they select different targets. As for town confirming someone, that's less clear since not having an NK go through can be the result of multiple different actions, or even inaction by scum, depending on the circumstances. Seems like you're lending a bit more heft to these roles than I would.
I can see your point, but it also seems to be based in a number of assumptions that I wouldn't make.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I guess there's some sense to that, though I don't think it would be particularly odd for there to be two protective roles, especially with one of them being a flavored BG. The main thing that has me questioning this conclusion is that Supa claimed his role before three other players could claim theirs, namely you, Poly and Wylted. He might have had an indication that Wylted's role is not the Doc, but this would be a pretty ballsy fake claim unless Earth gave them fake claims. From my experience playing with Supa as scum, his claims don't tend to be quite so easily CC'd as this would be. Right now, I'm buying the claim.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I am convinced that sups is scum
Would be great if you could explain this read. You VTL'd him at the start of the DP, said it was part of some unknown "inside joke", and now you're convinced he's scum. So I'll ask again: why did you VTL Supa?
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@Wylted
You will understand next dp
I'm willing to wait. At the moment, your soft claim improves your position over both Poly and Disc.
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@Wylted
You will understand next dp
I'm willing to wait. At the moment, your soft claim improves your position over both Poly and Disc.
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@Wylted
I had to miss one day of work. That is the worst symptom possible
Yup, that checks out. Feel for you, dude.
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@Vader
I don't rule out Wylted either since he said some weird stuff in DP1 about his role. It's weird how he soft claimed DP1 but doesn't wanna hard claim DP2.
I don't rule him out, either. I townread the initial softclaim, but it is odd that he's not full claiming now, despite his stated view that his role is worthless. I can't tell if he's trying to cover for a PR with some heft to it, backpedaling to avoid having to present a fake claim that will get scrutinized, or just being odd about this. I'm very much on the fence about him.
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@Wylted
Yes, but J and J, not the mrna stuff.
You do you. Just glad you got it.
Plus ain't I supposed to be covid proof?
No one said that you will never get the virus after you get immunized. Part of the risk of J&J's vaccine is a lower degree of immunity when compared with Moderna and Pfizer, though even if we discount that, it's become very clear that higher challenge doses of virus (i.e. greater viral titers in other patients) can overcome immune responses, whether they're vaccine-generated or the result of natural infection. What vaccines are supposed to do is provide you a base level of prevention and, should that fail, a far more robust response to the virus that prevents you from getting some of the worst symptoms.
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@Wylted
@Discipulus_Didicit
Didn't see that, but still kinda baffled. And yes, Wylted, the vaccine is immunization. Not sure why you thought that would get to me.
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@Wylted
Didn't really want to detract from this DP, but... wtf dude? Are you actually claiming to have been vaccinated after all those diatribes against this vaccine?
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@Crocodile
I've heard Unlimited Blade Works is good, though I'm reticent to pick it up. I watched the original Fate Stay Night when it aired, and it still rates as one of the worst anime I've ever seen. I know they do a much better job in Unlimited Blade Works, but the fact that it includes all the same characters still has me on edge. Took forever just to convince me to watch Fate Zero, and I clearly love that (easily my favorite series thematically).
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
I was thinking exactly that about the Roy and Marth claims. Both seemed a little off to me. DD claimed last, so he had the most room to make a fake claim if he chose to do so. I townread Wylted behaviorally coming off of DP1, especially given the softclaim and the way he described his role, but I leave open the possibility that he's scum. That being said, if I'm not misreading him, that invites the notion that both of their claims are real.
Still thinking on this. The partial CC on Pie's claim doesn't really phase me because it's not really a partial Doc, that's just how Pie framed it. I don't think he'd do that and invite a CC if he was fake claiming. That being said, the fact that the CC happened at all makes me townread Supa, and I was already townreading Pie.
Right now, I suspect that either or both Poly or Disc are scum. I'd like a full claim from either one of those, but I doubt they'll do it without pressure, and there seems to be a general lean towards VTNL this DP, so I doubt that will happen.
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Also, for the purpose of providing a full claim so that we can start doing a bit of theme analysis this DP, my character is Lyn. Justification is that she tracked the Black Fang to one of their hideouts and she's a nomad.
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@ILikePie5
Alright, then I can confirm you. I'm the Tracker, and I tracked you to me last night. Given that I was neither RB'd nor NK'd, I figured it was pretty likely that I could confirm you as town, but I wanted to see what you'd say before I got to it.
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Not terribly surprised that they hit Luna, but good that he was vanilla. Should mean we have at least a couple of results to see.
Speaking of which, I have one of my own, though I will only provide it after I see a few of the night actions that other people have taken. I have a suspicion, but I'll wait to see how this plays out.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
...Could you explain that vote? Did you get some result from a night action, or are you just voting him because of inactivity?
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@FLRW
The delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was first discovered in December of last year. To say that the vaccines could have prevented it is more aspirational than actual, since there wasn't a widespread vaccination effort and the earliest vaccines were not yet approved via EUA for use.
I also think your statement is a little too definitive. Variants can and do still develop so long as the virus has hosts in which it can actively replicate. Even if we assume the absolute maximum level of vaccination possible in the population (given that those 11 and under cannot currently be vaccinated), there would still be cases of the virus and it would persist at some level. The number of variants generated over time would almost certainly decrease, but given the reality of breakthrough infections among the vaccinated (usually resulting from high infectious doses), they would still find ways to get around. None of this is to say that widespread vaccination should not be the aim - vaccination still offers a great deal of protection from infection even with the high titer infections of the delta variant and, among those infected, dramatically reduces the incidences of complications - but I think it's important to note the limitations of vaccination as well as its benefits.
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@Lunatic
I think that's an appropriate assumption. For now, I think we should assume there are two mafia and function based on that. Better to assume the worst and attempt to get some information before we start lynching.
VTNL
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@Wylted
Alright, that makes sense. No need to claim.
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@Wylted
An auspicious start. How can you be certain that it is useless? Is it possible that it could pair with another role?
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