whiteflame

Dude, just because you have a different wincon phrasing than I do doesn't mean you've stumbled upon scum. My phrasing is what it is.

I'll also note that I asked you why you voted for drlebronski. You never answered my question, and instead, chose to shift your vote to me before I could even respond to you. Yes, that's going to elicit a VTL. Shocking, I know.

Heh, sounds like me when I was starting out, which honestly wasn't too long ago, all things considered. You'll develop more confidence in it as you go along. Wouldn't say anything in this post makes you sound bad, just a little overly self-conscious, though you shouldn't feel too reticent about getting involved.

What's up, Earth? 

Time to gin up some activity.

What did you think of your first game? Honestly, despite the issues with using your Dreamer role (noticed you couldn't use it because you were visited every night), I thought you did a good job making yourself stand out as town in the end. Anything you're interested in trying in this one?

Huh, interesting idea with plurality voting. Hope that helps get people involved.

Btw, this is the first theme in a while that I know almost nothing about. Should be interesting.

Appreciate that, Wylted. Still trying to improve in some ways, interested to see how well I do if I'm scum again one of these games, since I think I've been pretty poor at it in the past.

Definitely enjoyed it, though Badger and Wylted definitely made themselves too obvious. In particular, Wylted, I don't know what your game plan was during DP3, but you already had two people who had posted things that directly contradicted your post. Even without MC's getting a guilty on you, I don't think there was much chance of you surviving the DP after that. Wasn't like I had a lot to go on to sus you then, anyway, and many of the others seemed genuinely uncertain about you. Not sure why you'd risk it, since even if they had lynched me, you would have been next. As for Badger, honestly, if you hadn't gotten so defensive and reversed course so many times on what you'd said (or claimed you were joking), I don't think I would have pushed for the lynch. It takes a lot to get me on board with a DP1 lynch, but you were all over the place.

I’ll use my JK again tonight if Earth flips inno.

...And, of course, he's entirely absent dropping his role and claiming that something (it's unclear what from this post) is sus. I'm guessing this is in relation to drlebronski's claim, but I'd honestly love to hear Earth explain why scum that is currently in contact with two partners in chat would decide that their best course of action with a fake Dreamer claim is to pretend that they didn't get a message and, thus, have no results. I don't know what scum stands to benefit from presenting that scenario convincingly. Seriously, if this is drlebronski playing an incredibly effective con to look and act like a total noob at this, then he deserves to win at this point because his performance is impeccable. 

The above is directed to you. Note the bolded words.

...Alright...

So we have two claims that both have their own problems, but I think it's pretty clear that Earth is the most sus here. The fact that this Dreamer stuff is happening at all actually makes drlebronski seem less sus to me, as I can't fathom why he and his scum partners wouldn't have shored up this claim before now. The Dreamer role is usually used early, which could have been a big help in narrowing down to Wylted or figuring out who the last scum is (might still be useful in that regard), but if he was scum and using this as a fake claim, I have no doubt he would have given us results that would have suggested it was someone else. The fact that he doesn't have any almost certainly makes him town.

That leaves Earth. I'll note that, despite claiming Bodyguard, he hasn't stated who he targeted during any of the previous NPs. He hasn't given any justification for his role, either. Neither has drlebronski, but at least he's new to this. The fact that Earth is apparently withholding this information is a lot more sus coming from him. So, I'll put this directly to him: 

Wait, you said you haven't been able to use it? What does that mean?

...You've been a Dreamer this whole time? Did you use it? When? Who came up on your list of three?

Alright, we have every opportunity to win this, guys. There’s one scum left and only two people it could realistically be. Let’s break it down.

We do know that they still have a Strongman, as they were able to kill Luna through Oro’s Doctor. I wouldn’t be surprised if the remaining scum is a JOAT, 

Last night, I JK’d MisterChris. To my surprise, he was not the target of the NK, so we lost out on a Cop read. Still, this also town confirms him, since he could not have performed the NK.

We have already virtually town confirmed GP and Poly, the former based on his confirmed Magistrate, and the latter based on the obvious contradiction of his Motion Detector read.

That just leaves drlebronski and Earth. I have stronger reason to believe it’s Earth, but neither of them have claimed their roles. Both of you need to claim your roles. Include your justifications and what you’ve done with your roles so far, including any targets you’ve picked and the results you’ve gotten.

/in

Peeking in during a lull. Looks like we’ve got about as much confirmation as is possible to get about Wylted. Have my suspicions about who the other scum could be if there are 3, but I’ll save them for the next DP.

Yes. I am confirming that I did not move.

Likely be busy for the next couple of hours. Will check back in when I get a chance.

Wouldn't be surprised either way, personally, though I know you've looked into this particular battle in more detail than I have.

Especially since I already pointed out that these missing elements informed my own problems with his claim. He made several posts after that without addressing these issues.

So, let's get this straight. For Wylted's claim to work, the following would have to be true:

1. I would have to be lying.

2. Poly would have to have been redirected or otherwise messed with.

3. Oro would have to be lying.

All three of those would have to be true. You would have to buy that both Oro and me are scum (Wylted even somehow claims that it's me and Poly, despite the fact that he actively says that Oro is also lying) and that Poly, who has a role that only allows him to see whether someone moved or was visited by someone else, was the target of a redirect to further confuse the situation. With a half dozen other targets, all of whom could have far more valuable and dangerous PRs (excluding GP who already used his), scum went out of their way to redirect Poly.

This is pure, unadulterated bullshit. Lynch him.

I don't. Because I didn't visit him or anyone. It's pure bullshit.

Alright, this firms up my decision.

First off, Poly used his Motion Detector on me. He said I did not move. Either Poly is lying (and is somehow consistent with what MC did, but not what I did), or Wylted is lying.

Second, it generally seems strange to have a Watcher and a Motion Detector in the same game. I have a much easier time buying that Poly is the Motion Detector than I do that Wylted is the Watcher. If he's a 1X Watcher, I don't know why he chose not to use it until this DP. If he can use it multiple times, why hasn't he stated who he watched during NP1?

Third, Oro says he visited Luna as well. That ups the ante even further, since both Oro and Poly would have to be lying for Wylted to have correctly identified this.

Fourth, it's just an odd role claim in general, especially paired with the Battle of Mt Vesuvius. It's not clear at all how his Watcher claim actually links to the battle, and while other claims may have tenuous links as well (mine included), I can usually at least see some connection. It doesn't seem like anything in the battle relates to monitoring the other army, which is the bare minimum I would expect to see in a choice like this. I'd like to see him try to provide a justification, but my guess is he either got the battle or the role as a fake claim (my guess is the battle), and will provide a tenuous or non-existent link between the two because he doesn't have one.

Onto DP3! 

Not terribly surprised that scum targeted Lunatic (and apparently, neither was Oro), given that he has headed up the last two lynches and has consistently been a substantial force in pushing discussion. Pretty likely that he used his 1X Commuter during NP1, hence the lack of an NK during that DP, though I do have to wonder how they knew that their second attempt would go through. Would be a strange choice to target him twice if they didn't have good reason to believe that it would work. It's also possible that they targeted Oro instead, failed to kill him, and shifted over to Lunatic. Either way, looks like they used their Strongman this time to make sure it went through, though possibly Oro was RB'd or he's just lying about his role.

As for lynching Supa, that still seemed like the right choice in retrospect. He was behaviorally scummy and claimed a role that he was both reticent to use and likely would have little effect now that Badger's 2X RB is out of the game.

As for the remaining players, the only person that is basically town confirmed is GP. I'm still not 100% that his role confirmation puts him in the town camp (we've been burned by this before when he was the scum Mason), but he has the most solid claim to town that I've seen so far. I'd still put MisterChris in the strong town lean category as well, given that he was early on the lynch train for Badger, though I'm not ruling out very convincing bussing from him.

I have a harder time understanding why Polyglot is being so solidly town confirmed, though I give him a town lean. The Motion Detector role is a pretty safe claim since he could target anyone he wanted and, if they said they didn't move, we would all just assume they'd been visited with no way to confirm it. I will say that MC isn't the most obvious choice in that regard, since we did not know he even had a PR, but he's not an obvious choice from a town perspective either, given that MC had solid town cred by the end of DP1. He also tracked me during NP2, which also seems like an odd choice, though he is right that I didn't move. The fact that he has a role that has confirmation of movement from both of us is a solid point in his favor, but I still only see it as a slight town lean on the whole.

Oromagi is tricky, but I also see him as a slight town lean. I agree with Luna's analysis of his voting tendencies lending a bit to bandwagoning to give himself some town cred on the Badger lynch, but his behaviors with regards to getting deeper into the theme analysis and expansive analysis of behaviors more closely match my experiences with him as town in previous games than they do with him as scum. The fact that he's claiming Doctor gives him some credence in my book as well, given the general lack of claimed protective roles.

That leaves Wylted, drlebronski and Earth. I wouldn't be too surprised if there was only one of the remaining scum (or the TP, as the case may be) among these three, but I do think one is in here. Much as many of you have been willing to dismiss drlebronski as too newbie to be playing this as scum, I'm still not so sure, though he's also the one in here that I'm most split on (he probably is new to this and I have a harder time believing that he's faking it this well), so I'll set him aside. Earth has been playing pretty similarly to how I've seen him play before, but that leaves him largely as unclear to me. He just hasn't contributed much to discussions of what to do beyond supporting given lynches for reasons already given (or for no reason at all, as the case may be), and has jumped around quite a bit, particularly in DP1. Don't know if I see it as particularly scummy or obvious bussing, but he hasn't given me much reason to read him as anything but tentative.

That leaves me with Wylted, and while he was on the hammer for DP1, I still have a lot of misgivings about him. Behaviorally, he just isn't acting like I've seen him before in games where he's been town. Hopping off the Badger lynch, in particular, was a very odd move for him. It's possible that Badger could have been lynched without him during DP1, and even if he wasn't, another lynch train would have formed on him during the next DP. He may have just seen the writing on the wall and saw an opportunity to gain some town cred by hammering. I know some have made mention of him likely being more involved if he was scum, but Wylted legitimately just seems busy and frustrated with life at the moment, which may be affecting the way he plays as well. If anyone stands out as behaviorally sus to me at the moment, it's him.

Yeah, my justification is not exactly detailed, either. After a description of the battle, it just says "You are ______" without much, if any, reasoning behind the role itself.

It's pretty baffling how you came down on MC and me as the two most likely scum in this game. At best, you have minor behavioral issues that you seem fixated on while ignoring the way that this game has played out. Setting aside the fact that I have absolutely no history of bussing (feel free to check back), we were both on the lynch super early and could have hopped off at any point to hobble the lynch. As it was, the lynch barely went through and, as Luna already pointed out, probably wouldn't have happened if Badger had been given a chance to claim. You, in particular, seemed more focused on getting the claim than addressing the clear behavioral tells that Badger was exhibiting, many of which pointed to him being scum. As someone who regularly says he will not lynch during DP1 and often seeks claims with his votes, I can usually sympathize when others follow that basic pattern, but when Badger was actively refusing to claim and saying that he'd rather be lynched and even threatening to leave the game due to pressure, sticking to your normal DP1 meta doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

I have actually been rather consistent this game with my choices of targets. Badger was my only vote during DP1 and I stayed on him. During this DP, I started with Poly, got a partial claim (not all I wanted, but we got the rest later) and shifted over to you after a convincing rundown of aspects of your play that stand out from Luna, who I would consider about as town-confirmed as anyone in this game. I had noticed some issues prior to that, hence you were in the town-lean pile rather than the hard town pile, even if I had thought you were behaviorally consistent with your town performance in previous games.

Honestly, though, it's this rundown that you've given here that has me the most suspicious. For someone who was so willing to set aside behavioral issues for a claim in DP1, you're really focused on some strange behavioral tells this DP and not at all on others. I understand that you and several others are willing to set aside Drlebronski as an option on the basis that his behavior is noobie, but for someone who was calling out me supposedly hopping on the trendy lynch (I'll note that I was third on the lynch for Badger and second for you, hardly what I would call trendy in either case), it's strange to immediately dismiss someone who has hopped on and off several lynches over the course of this game. The same holds true for Wylted who also jumped around quite a bit with his votes, and your explanation for why you doesn't consider Wylted a concern ("Wylted seems too far off in his own element to care much about the game") doesn't seem at all accurate to Wylted's play in DP1. I'm also not sure why you're dismissing all the "neutrals" and somehow leaving Luna, who actively led the lynch against Badger, in that pile. Earth and Poly may not have contributed much to this game, but it's not like there's nothing you could say about them at this point. Generally, this reads as an effort to throw suspicion onto MC and me with little basis in what's actually happened.

Meanwhile, while the 2X Strengthener claim may be real, but it also just works pretty well as a safe claim (unverifiable, especially without the RB in play) at this point since it's unlikely anyone else would have it and it does look like a solid counter to the 2X RB. But it also just seems like an odd role claim to accompany Cannae. The other claims make more sense to me. In the case of Actium and Phrarsalus, I can find bases for the Magistrate and Motion Detector roles, even if they're a little vague. I can understand the RB role for Carrhae as well, but largely from the perspective of the Parthian Empire in that conflict. The Strengthener role better fits Carthage in Cannae than it does the Romans, which sets it more in line with Carrhae than any of the other claims we have so far, and that's not to mention that it's the only other major defeat of the Romans that exists among any of our claims. Maybe I'm wrong about the split in this game being major Roman defeats (as opposed to internal conflicts and Roman victories), but even if I am, your claim is an obvious outlier among the ones we currently have. Couple that with the behavioral tells Luna's pointed out and it's honestly hard to find anyone else who stands out as much as you do.

Dunno how to do that and honestly not sure how, so you’ll have to wait on Supa.

*shrug* I honestly don't think there's much in the way of negatives, but the positives aren't that big in retrospect. I'm fine either way.

The only real benefit I see is in knowing whether he was the target of a night action. It’s not a lot of information, and I think it’s more likely that he visited someone, in which case the info is relatively worthless, but I think it’s worth getting the basics. I do also think that just revealing that he either was visited or visited someone already reveals to scum whether he has a power role or not, since they’re most likely to have visited him in the night.

Right now, Chris is among the most town confirmed players. It’s plausible that he visited someone, but pretty likely it was for the benefit of town, and if he’s not told us yet, he probably has good reason to keep it secret.

I think you have a point. I hadn’t really put together what Supa was doing during the last DP, though I had noticed Badger was avoiding mentioning him. Still not as certain on Oro - it’s a plausible argument, but I can’t say that I’m convinced just yet. I’d still like the full claim from Poly, but I’ll relent and trade focus for Supa.

I’m still on the fence about both Wylted and Poly at the moment.

Well, since we’re all doing it, I’m Zama.

Still trying to get a feel for the theme split. Carrhae does stand out as a major loss for the Roman Empire to another empire. The split could be between major losses and other Roman conflicts, as the rest of the ones I've seen have been either Roman victories or the result of internal conflict. Could be reading into these wrong, but that's what I'm getting so far

Oops, left out Oro. I'd put him in the town-lean pile. His attempts to solve the theme and vote on Wylted make more sense to me coming from him as town, but I haven't seen anything that places him in the obvious town pile yet.

While I'm loathe to base my reads solely on who was and wasn't on the lynch (I've been burned by more than a few instances of bussing), I do think there's some value in mapping out how the lynch proceeded.

Town

GP - while his role being confirmed doesn't necessarily make him town, I would be hard-pressed to find some reason why he'd play things out this way if he was scum. Based on my previous experience on a scum team with him, he doesn't tend to hesitate when it comes to voting to lynch his partner if it will lend him some cred. That actually makes the fact that he wasn't on the lynch more of a town tell to me.

Luna - obviously led the way on this lynch. Have a very hard time believing he'd go through all that, especially considering how long it took to get the lynch, if he was his scum partner.

MisterChris - Got on the lynch well before I did and didn't peel off. That might be because he was absent for a good portion of the DP, but I doubt he'd do this as scum. 

Town-lean

SupaDudz - didn't get into the DP until pretty late in when there was already a pretty decent head of steam behind the lynch. His reading of what happened up to the point of his vote was also a little limited, since he said to wait for a claim that Badger had been rather belligerent about not providing. Still, the conduct strikes me as town, especially given that he wasn't wholly on board with the reasoning surrounding the lynch.

Neutral

Wylted - executing the lynch himself is the only reason that Wylted is in the neutral category for me. The fact that he kept oscillating on who he should target and seemed somewhat cowed (at least initially) by Badger's response to his first vote to lynch him doesn't fit the pattern of behavior I've seen from him before. Behaviorally, I'd put him in the scum-leaning category, and his claim didn't help his case.

Earth - just not a lot to work with here. I usually find Earth difficult to read for this same reason, and I'd like to see more from him this DP to get a better feel, especially given the general lack of voting in DP1.

Polyglot - again, just not a lot to work with in the previous DP. Voted to lynch Earth for activity and never left off even after Earth started posting. Like to see more from him as well.

At least for now, I'd like to get a claim from one of these two. Badger did claim to FoS Chris, Earth and Wylted in the end, with some earlier mention of Poly slipping off his list for no apparent reason, so I'll VTL Poly for a claim.

Scum-lean

Drlebronski - I can't decide whether much of his behavior results from him being new to this or him being scum, but he seems to be voting all over the place with limited or no reasoning. The fact that he was on the lynch in the end, especially with the lack of certainty that the lynch would go through, doesn't reduce my suspicions much.

Well, that was fun. Don’t think Badger could have telegraphed that he was scum any better than he did in the end, pretty obvious behavioral tells. And yeah, that appears to confirm GP’s role claim. Interesting that there was no NK, must have some protective roles in the mix.

From the perception of someone who doesn't have much experience playing with him, I can understand it to a degree.

I have.

I haven't really seen TUF act out of the ordinary here. If anything, this is more usual for him than his last game where he was rather passive, which is part of the reason I ended up shooting him over you in the end.

A good deal to catch up on here, but I'm through it.

I do think Wylted's claim is a bit odd, though I can't yet say if there's anything meaningful behind that. Until we have some idea of what the split is, it's hard to treat any battle as problematic. I'm down for going deep into theme analysis, but with only 2 battles claimed and some vague ideas regarding the remainder, I'm loathe to make any solid choices on this basis.

As for badger, I was honestly not too concerned over his responses until he decided to write this to Wylted and drl: "One or both of you unvote or I'm claiming and leaving." That may not suggest that he's scum, but this kind of behavior is shit I've seen too many times before. Threatening to leave the game because people are voting for you is, at minimum, anti-town because all it does is set his personal interests above that of others in this game. Both Wylted and drl seem to have been cowed by it, but I see no reason to let something like this slide.

Mine is on that list.

At minimum:

Hey guys, I'm pretty exhausted today, but I'll see what I can do to parse everything so far. I'm not getting a lot of behavioral information from what's been posted, so since we haven't really started in on it, I'd like to start on the theme analysis. Can't say that I'm terribly familiar with most ancient Roman battles, but Greyparrot's claim was on my shortlist for battles that were pretty much guaranteed to be in this (not that that town confirms him). The question is where the split resides, and at least based on comparing both my and his battles, I think it's unlikely that any split is based on locations where the battles were fought. I also think it's unlikely that the split is based on which enemy the Romans fought. Greyparrot's claim does stand out as featuring a major instance of infighting among Roman leaders, a feature that is absent from mine. I guess it's possible that one of these is involved in the split, but at the moment, I doubt it.

I have a couple of ideas for what the split could be that I'd like to start testing. How many of us have battles that the Romans won?

...Did you read my initial response?