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@Moozer325
That's not been my understanding of the role, Whiteflame could you clarify as a more experienced player?
Taking a break, but I did want to address this. The only redirector I’m familiar with is one that is unannounced to its two targets.
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If enough of us still scumread Earth, then I can fully understand that lynch and will join it, even if I’ve been talking myself out of it. I have a lot of concerns with his play this game, which makes the decision between him and Banana particularly frustrating, but it is what it is.
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@Moozer325
To put it bluntly, I don't think it's holding. It's not bad reasoning but no detailed analysis is going to convince me more my current Earth scum-read, and the Banana vs. Earth night actions discrepancy.
That’s probably true. If I’m mistaken, I’ll accept that, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t detail my thoughts and explore them as thoroughly as possible.
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@Moozer325
Well that's exactly my point. Do you really scum-read Banana more than Earth? I'm not saying that Banana is squeaky clean, but in an either/or situation there's no contest between the two IMO.
As of right now, yes. I have had a lot of problems with Earth’s play this game and he was my pick going into this DP. I’m trying to get as much discussion of this as possible to see if that holds.
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@Moozer325
I’ll start by pointing out the most important thing here: we’re at MYLO. We don’t have another lynch after this one if we mislynch, so this analysis is here to inform this DP, not a future one.
I’m not convinced (and don’t currently believe) that Earth and Banana are a scum team. I think it’s an either/or situation. I don’t buy that there’s a Cop plus a Time Traveler plus a Watcher/Tracker. That’s a lot of informative roles. They’re not the only ones I’m considering this DP, but they have been the focus of my attention.
The redirector discussion is one I’m putting less and less stock into as this goes on. Maybe there’s something to it, but I don’t think it’s all that productive, especially since my issues aren’t focused on any individual result.
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@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
Since both of you have asked a similar question, I’ll address my answer to both of you.
I think it’s pretty obvious how you respond to a post like that: either call out a flaw in my thinking or post an alternative way of thinking about the available claims to counter it. Doing neither and claiming that all this amounts to is theme split analysis is not what I would call a productive response.
As for all these points from Banana about confirmation bias and reframing her previous post, I’ll set that aside for now. I’ve got my suspicions there, but they aren’t the chief driving force of this inquiry. I do not love that Banana keeps accusing me of being close-minded with this line of discussion just because I’m suggesting something I’ve been saying since DP2 and using it as an additional concern, but here we are.
Your sole focus right now has been on me. What are your thoughts on him gambling his information to being potentially night killed for two nights in a row? Why would he do that? What do you think about him not revealing his np1 information arbitrarily and then when it was revealed it had nothing to do with anything that would have impacted his second information?
Considering how defensive you’ve been in response, yes, that has been my focus. I’ll address these questions since you asked, though:
The info Mhar had after NP1 doesn’t seem substantial enough to warrant outing his role, so I get that. Saying that he wanted to leave one piece of information in reserve, particularly one he thought we could do little with, could make sense if he thought this wasn’t MYLO. Don’t think that info is all that useful now, so it comes off as weird that he didn’t realize that. That’s one aspect I find concerning, it’s just not a lot to go off of.
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@Cerulean
Whiteflame- Not sure how much this matters to you since you already made your post, but my role mentions:- I am a great tactician and natural leader.- I serve as Mason's handler, planning missions and ensuring I get the best out of him.- I am the one to undo Mason's brainwashing.That about sums it up.More to come once I get on my train.
Coming up with this a little late, man. It's useless now, unfortunately.
... Sorry, what? I thought Banana said her link to Lunatic's private channel didn't work? Did I miss that changing?
As Banana said, post #53.
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@iamanabanana
You are getting caught up in world play, my argument still remains the same. The pattern you see in the way my role PM was written being different, is just wrong. I don't know what else to tell you.
There's a great deal of difference between hyperfocusing on a theme split that we don't know is real and noticing a very particular and clearly knowable trend among PMs that have been posted so far and what people have said about their own PMs. One is a pattern that's speculated, and one is a pattern that's entirely verifiable. You can literally read what everyone posted and notice they are consistent one with another in this respect. I could very well be wrong that this suggests you are scum, but I'm not wrong that this pattern exists and that it leaves you conspicuously absent from it, which is the point you're not addressing.
You are overthinking this way too hard. I knew he didn't block me because I had a succesful action, and I stated the night kill going through was also evidence of this. I wasn't seeking knowledge I already had, I don't know what you mean by that. It seems you have your mind made up, which is strange you aren't considering much of mharman but whatever.
I just don't agree with your interpretation of what you said. You can justify it however you'd like in retrospect, but that's not how I read it at the time you posted, and even this justification seems like a very tailored reading of your post. You asked whether the Martyr would have affected the NK. You did so knowing that your night action was successful, so the answer wasn't pertinent, but you asked anyway. That stood out to me.
And I have considered Mharman, that's just untrue.
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@iamanabanana
Apophenia to me is when you start looking hard at patterns that any sort of pattern suddenly makes sense. I get it, that's what you do in these themes. But how often does our perception of what the theme split is pan out the way we think? I am sure it happens occasionally, but this is a case of you being wrong, and I know that because I am town. If I was more knowledgeable on the theme I could perhaps help identify other patterns that fit that could also be relevant, but since I do not know much about black ops, I can't do that. I am just suggesting that you don't hedge too many bets on what you perceive to be the theme split based off of one theory. Also isn't it significantly more likely mafia are usually already aware of the theme split by having access to their own role PM's in the mafia channel? If they are aware of the split why would they allow themselves to be caught by it?
That's not my impression of what apophenia is, but agree to disagree.
This isn't theme analysis, btw. It's analysis of how these PMs are written. I'm not analyzing themes at all. So I'm not sure why you're responding as though what I've said regards a theme split. Almost this entire response is irrelevant to my point, but you're right, scum would better know the theme split.
Of course I would act uncertain, I wasn't trying to expose the fact that I had a working action to mafia. I did eventually because you were straight up asking everyone to do this, and I've seen what non compliance leads to...
I don't know why you'd even ask if you knew this information. That's the problem: why would you actively seek knowledge you already had? To cover for yourself? To make it seem like you didn't have a night action? Maybe, but that's not how it looks to me, and if you were trying to do that, then it's surprising that you revealed you did have a night action without any pressure.
You were initially saying that the argument was straight up weak, and now your admitting that its at best a null read, which is all I was every trying to say it was, an argument to take with a grain of salt.
So... we agree then. Good.
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@iamanabanana
I admire the analysis, but I am sorry, this is a case of apophenia. I've been completely honest with you about my character and my role.
I'll put this back to you, then. If this is apophenia as you say (and notably, apophenia applies to random or unrelated events, while these are clearly related and decidedly not random), then why does every single other PM fit this trend except yours? I understand you're claiming honesty, but that doesn't do much for challenging the point I'm making.
My action went through, so I knew that wylted couldn't have died...
...except you started the DP saying this:
That suggested uncertainty on your part as to whether he'd used his role. You wouldn't have to ask this question if you already knew that his Martyr wasn't activated.
Then why mention it, if its something you aren't sussing me for? What exactly are you sussing me for? Saying that scum could have fake claimed my role isn't really an argument I can respond too...
Because it's a response to your argument that the existence of a Watcher/Tracker bolsters your case. I've made clear what I'm sussing you for.
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@Earth
@Mharman
@annabanana20
@Moozer325
@Cerulean
Alright, so I've got some downtime (finally) before I have to finish writing a report for work. That means I can finally post about this. Noted that Cerulean has, once again, been on in my absence and not posted.
So, why am I focused on getting the extra details from PMs?
Take a look at the flips so far:
Bullish has a very specific set of incidents that occurred to Grigori (tied to a chair, spotted through binoculars, death by knife through eye) and individually named characters involved in those incidents (Mason, Woods, Kravchenko and Dragovich).
WyIted has the same (going to a Russian cargo plane wreck, defending it, captured, tortured, death by pipe) and its own set of characters (Woods and Mason).
Luna has the same (captured, turned into a sleeper agent, solving the puzzle of his past under fire) and one character (Dragovich).
Then we can look at the claims so far (setting aside Moozer whose role has been confirmed, though I would like his input on this):
Mharman follows the pattern. He said his role mentions both Weaver and Hudson as intended recipients of his information before he was killed, and it mentions the Nova 6 (which is part of Moozer's claim as well). Maybe a little more slight on details about what happened to him, but there are still details to glean.
Earth follows the pattern. Trusted three named characters (Dragovich, Kravchenko, Steiner and Mason), betrayed and thrown in prison staging an uprising, killed during the fight.
In fact, the way he presented it initially had me sussing it for how close it was to mine (though my claim does reference Reznov and Mason), but the more details he's given, the less I've sussed his claim since mine directly emphasizes my character's strength and his focuses more on the mental impact of his character, which might link (albeit loosely) to his role.
Banana's claim conspicuously differs. It does mention one character (Captain Mosely, notably not mentioned by anyone else), but doesn't reference specific actions taken by the character, saying what Major Neitsch generally does for the team, his capabilities, and that "aided the missions success." That's vague in a way none of the other claims or specific PMs have been.
So, why focus on this? I think it's entirely possible that someone could have crafted a convincing justification from knowledge of an available character and/or role (certainly many of you have had access to full flips to use as templates), but I also think that's the hardest part of providing a convincing claim in a game where you have access to this kind of information. I know it's where I've struggled when I've done games like this where I could ask the mod about the existence of certain roles and characters. Unlike a lot of things that could just be the result of certain people playing this game a certain way (and boy do I have a lot of complaints with how Earth in particular has played this one), this is something where I couldn't really bias my view based on frustration or what I'd expect to see from a given player.
Beyond all this, while I really don't like Earth's play last DP, I've seen a lot more focus and attention to detail from him this DP. Maybe he just got his shit in order as scum, but I suspect it's more tied to his frustrations last game of being sussed as town and feeling like his role was going to be wasted. Now that he's got a result that matters, he wants to make it count. I've had some reason to second-guess Banana much of this game, particularly her initial response to WyIted's flip. The Watcher/Tracker is certainly a big swing and if this was a normal game from Pie where scum only got to ask about two roles, that might have changed my mind here. But scum got to ask about any four roles or characters. They could have just picked four roles and found that neither a Watcher nor a Tracker was in this game. I'm not sussing her because of that, but I also can't treat it as a meaningful counter to my other reasons for sussing her.
As for who else I'm considering, that would be Cerulean at this point. He's had a very long time to respond to my request and has avoided it despite being online at least twice since I made it. The Muse role being uncounterable by mine also feels very convenient, particularly with a mass uncounterable RB already on the table from WyIted's flip.
Anyway, that's my big block post, sorry it took so long. I want thoughts from everyone. I won't post a vote until we've talked through this.
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Dealing with a minor medical emergency this morning, post will probably come later than I anticipated.
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@Earth
@Mharman
@Moozer325
@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
Alright, I have a lot of thoughts about the game so far and I'd really love to post them... but despite being on several hours ago, well after I requested it, Cerulean has yet to provide any more details from his PM. Thankfully, we have the time to wait a little longer, as the DP doesn't end for roughly 39 hours. That being said, I'm not dragging this out beyond tomorrow morning, so whether I get insights about your PM by then or not, I'll break down my thoughts entirely sometime shortly after I get to work tomorrow. It'll give me another opportunity to go over my thinking and tonight I'm tired enough that whatever spills out of me will likely be a jumbled mess anyway.
Thanks to everyone who provided insight into their PMs in a more timely fashion. I did ask Banana to provide it via our chat on Discord, so I have it there. These aren't the only factors I'm considering, and I do appreciate everyone laying out their reads so far, so bear with me.
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@Mharman
Still something. Thanks.
Anyway, going to take a breather from this. Hopefully Cerulean will fill in more of the specifics of his PM by the next time I’m back and I can give my detailed thoughts.
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@Mharman
@Cerulean
Looking for the kind of details Earth provided about his character from each of you as well.
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@Cerulean
"A hidden aspect"- is that the exact wording? Seems very unhelpful, although I guess it would make sense with Night 1 if it's meant to be increasing usefulness.People with more experience than me in Pie games- do you believe that this could be something he would host? It doesn't seem familiar to anything he's done before, from what I recall.
There have been a couple of role choices that have already surprised me in this game, including the confirmed Escape Artist, so I’m not sure how much I should trust past experience in games he’s hosted. Both bits of information he’s received aren’t terribly helpful at this point, so I can’t say they move the needle in terms of my perception of him. Same goes for you, though.
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@Earth
Revnov was raised during a time of hardship and war. Revnov trusted Dragovich, Kravchenko and Steiner (my PM name drops Steiner FWIW). However they betrayed me and threw me in prison. This did not break my spirits because I later became a leader in prison. Encouraging men with nothing left, and meeting Mason, I staged an uprising. While fighting through the prison, I was killed, but I live on in Mason's mind. My hate and lust for revenge for those that betrayed me live on in Mason's mind and he fought Drago, Kravchenko and Steiner for me.
Alright, I’ve got thoughts on this, but I’ll save them for when I get back home and have a chance to write up my thoughts in full.
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@Cerulean
I did actually check on whether or not Strengthener would work- Pie told me it's basically that if I die, the victim's ability is just gone, so it can't be used in the first place and therefore couldn't be strengthened.It doesn't fit Pie modpsych to include a role like Strengthener and then not have anything to strengthen against, right? So there must be something wolves have going on under the hood... unless Strengthener was a guess hoping that there existed some Town power that could be strengthened against.
Something’s up with the balance this game that I can’t quite put my finger on. Don’t blame you for continuing to question the Strengthener, as I’m still having trouble seeing where I fit into this with the claimed roles.
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@Mharman
@Cerulean
I am Jason Hudson, Muse. If I die, a Town-aligned player has their role disabled entirely. Justification is that Hudson was responsible for coordinating/planning with Mason for a lot of the game, so his death would lead to a loss in effectiveness. I wanted to avoid claiming this for as long as possible, for what I hope are obvious reasons.
Alright, thanks for claiming. Not a role I'm familiar with, but yeah, I can understand wanting to hold back on this. If this role is real, then town had a lot of opportunities to potentially self-immolate with your death and WyIted being able to use his role for a mass RB. Strange that both yours and his role would circumvent mine, since I don't see a way my role could counter this (might want to check with Pie on that one).
Anyway, Mharman, you're up.
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@iamanabanana
Again I didn’t say it’s impossible for the role to be replaced. But you said my argument is weak, and I don’t see why it would be considered weak when every game I’ve played in has a certain role it would seem odd or different to me to see a game without that role. At the very least you should take this argument with a grain of salt instead of treating it with outright dismissal. Everyone keeps devaluing every point I make, or saying that it’s less impactful than it is or should be. Is it simply to be contrarian or do you actually believe a role claim that exists in most games should not be looked at as if it’s non existence is an outlier?
Arguing that a role is likely in the game because it's common to other games is, I would say, I weak argument. If it's strong for you because that's been your experience, then fine. At best, I'd say it's a minor point in favor of the existence of your role. It's not a personal attack on you to point out that it doesn't sway me much.
I'll point out as well, though, that we're all aware that scum got an opportunity to ask about the existence of four roles or characters. In a game with that mechanic, yes, I think it's entirely plausible that scum would claim a role that could be common to a variety of games. By that same token, I think it's plausible that scum might claim a more substantial character like Earth's claim. So that mechanic makes me second guess claims that I might expect to be in this game.
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@Mharman
Post 120 DP2. Nothing has changed about my behavioral assessment of Earth.
Yeah, those points still hold water for me too.
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@iamanabanana
I am basing this off of what you yourself claimed about the character.
Except I didn’t say anything about him opening a door. That was your inclusion. I said he was essential to Mason escaping a labor camp.
In my opinion, so has he.
Not going to argue that, though Mharman has certainly posted more.
As for your last point, my main issue with it is that it’s modpsych. Almost every time I’ve had someone dictate to me what role must be in the game or could not possibly be in the game, if I’ve used to make a decision, it’s blown up in my face. Likelihood that in any random game would include this role just isn’t going to convince me, and considering you’re not referencing past Pie games, it’s not even specific to his tastes for roles like this.
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@Mharman
For this reason, I sus bad justifications more than I do obscure pulls.
That’s fair. I do want to dig down into Earth’s claim, as I’m trying to do with the above post directed at him. There’s a lot about his justification and claim in general that I sus, so I’m going to need as much information about it as I can get.
FWIW, I agree, just a matter of making sure I’m not missing anything important.
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@Earth
Going to get you back into this discussion, Earth.
You gave a rather abbreviated justification for your role here. I’m looking for you to expand on what your PM says. Regardless of whether it supports your justification, please paraphrase any extra information in your PM.
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@iamanabanana
Agree to disagree. Your character doesn’t even come up when initially reading the wiki about the mission, if I google him specifically I find him though. My point is that you are in my opinion a minor character, but I still think you are basically town confirmed.
It strikes me as odd that you would reduce my character’s role to opening a door when you’ve clearly done your research into the character. I’m not sure how I’m reading that, though I’ll note that I’m not actively sussing you just for having a minor character.
Casting suspicion on my character for being minor for appearing in one mission ignores other factors of importance about my character, I just find it interesting that mharman points it out about my character but is seemingly okay with yours and is willing to accept the notion of a strengthener existing over a watcher and or tracker.
I get the distinct impression that he did sus my character when I claimed it. It’s only been because of behavioral reads that he’s changed his mind since then. You’ve been distinctly harder to read on that front.
Btw in almost every game I’ve played in one of these has existed.
Weaker argument. Trackers and Watchers are common, but I’ve seen them replaced with a Motion Detector before. I’ve seen them just be entirely absent. Usual game design isn’t going to inform my pick.
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@Mharman
Ah, that makes more sense.
As I see it, the debate here is between Banana and Earth. I don’t think both of their roles exist in a game with an Undercover Cop, and at least one of their results was either fucked with or a lie. I don’t love that Earth’s justification feels so utterly divorced from his character, so that’s still weighing on my views this DP, but I’m not decided yet.
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@Mharman
I base my assessor characters based on the wiki.
Guessing there’s a bit of autocorrect in there. My assessor?
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@iamanabanana
The entire significance of your character was to open a door? The character doesn’t speak a single word the whole mission? Idk but it seems pretty minor in comparison to the guy behind the desk giving directions to the main characters in my Opinion
That seems… more than a little reductive. Not saying my character is massively important, but saying that all he did was hold open a door is a different story.
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@iamanabanana
My role pm does mention that I occur in only one mission but pie goes out of his way to elaborate how crucial the mission is to the stories plot considering it’s concerning weapons of mass destruction. But mharman all the things you pointed out about my character being minor equally apply to whiteflames character, in fact his seems even more minor than mine but you aren’t suspecting him for it.
Mharman is pretty clear about where he sees distinction between your and my character, though they are both clearly minor. Don’t think I agree based on what I’ve read that mine is more minor, but that’s arguable.
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@Mharman
I've been perusing the wiki during the game to evaluate some of the claims people have made. Did some surface-level research over there as well. Neitsch is a character I didn't even know about. Odds seems low, since Neitschplays a very minor role in the plot, if any at all. Yes, he's a playable character, but our characters and justifications seem to be in this game based on prevalence in the plot. Even someone minor like your character plays a greater role, reading up on the missions they were involved in. Incentives to go for a MYLO CC aside, this is the problem I have with Banana's claim.
Noted. I’ll also note that the character almost seems a little too well tied to the role. Compared with the flips and claims so far, at least, Banana’s seems to tie together more cleanly.
I think it’s a given scum has an RB or a redirector of some kind, but I disagree it necessitates anything beyond Cop+protective/extra investigation+strengthener for town in the setup. It’s already a pretty strong town corp, especially if there is a protective role, which there usually are in these games
Perhaps not. Still thinking on this, but it’s a small concern compared with other info we’ve been given.
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@Cerulean
Don’t love that you were on an hour ago and didn’t post.
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@Earth
I'm confused on the potential effects a redirector could have on my role. I still think it is odd that there is a cop, a fancy MD and a 1x watcher/tracker, but it does make me think.
Yeah, there are a lot of factors I'm considering. How it would affect your role to redirect or otherwise manipulate it, I do not know.
As for the existence of three different investigative roles, yeah, that's something that sticks out to me as well. It's possible to balance that by just giving scum a mess of counters, but that seems excessive.
Anyway, going to think about it tomorrow, calling it a night.
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So for anyone who is confused about that last post from Banana, I was informed a couple of hours ago that Luna’s Mason role went through: she is now with me in the chat. We have been doing a bit of discussion over what’s happened so far and over our reads, which I can discuss more as the DP goes on.
Regarding the whole roleblocker/redirector issue, that’s a niggling doubt of mine. It’s unusual to have a Strengthener in any game, let alone one without a town RB. Makes me concerned that scum have more manipulation roles in play.
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Oh, unvote just in case some shenanigans are afoot. I know it’s 4 to lynch, but still, shouldn’t require vote pressure at this point to get claims.
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@Mharman
Also, I will say that we SHOULD NOT VTNL today.I will give the reason later this DP.
Noted. I have thoughts on optimal play this DP, but I’ll wait until Cerulean claims.
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@iamanabanana
I am the RSO on the blackbird during an important mission and guide people to and from locations, basically is my justification
Want to get thoughts on the likelihood of this character being in this game, but he’s certainly a decent fit for the Tracker/Watcher.
Also Whiteflame is confirmed town otherwise he bussed earth, and he was gunning for earth hard last day phase. It could be a bus but it seemed like he was genuinely frustrated with him. Partner of earth has to be mharman or cerulean
I don’t see it as likely that Earth, who just claimed Cerulean moved, is scum buddies with Cerulean. There’s always the possibility that he just saw the writing on the wall and immediately moved to put distance between himself and his partner, just not what I’d expect.
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@Mharman
Can Lunatic still talk in the Mason pm? Probably not, but if he can I’d love to hear his thoughts.
Luna asked about it over the NP, Pie had to tell him the answer in a DM, and at the start of this DP Luna had been removed, so that was my answer. He’s gone. I can only refer back to what he’s said up to now.
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@iamanabanana
Yeah, might as well get that while we’re at it. What’s the justification for your role? Seems relatively obvious from what I’ve seen on the wiki, but might as well check.
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@Cerulean
Going to need a full claim from you to start as well as any night actions you might have taken.
VTL Cerulean
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@Earth
That would be likely, yes.
Alright, keeping that in mind. Thank you for being candid this DP.
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@Earth
I choose to target Cerulean's NP1 becayse he claimed he didn't do anything DP2 and no one else claimed to visit him. So I suspect he probably killed Wylted or is a mafia JOAT.
Alright, that’s the clearest logic I’ve heard from you this game. Helping your case.
So you’re saying if we were to lynch you now, then your flip would confirm that both Banana and Cerulean had lied and are likely scum, right?
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@Earth
Pie called my role a Time Traveler but its just a MD with flavor.
First time seeing that role. So, again, you chose to provide a very limited explanation of your role when pressed, then chose to target Cerulean on a previous DP for some reason rather than targeting him this DP. Explain these choices.
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@Earth
Go back and describe your justification in detail because the reason for having a retroactive motion detector is even more suspect. If you left anything out of your previous statement about your justification, now is the time to fess up.
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@iamanabanana
I thought he meant np2
Definitely not what he’s saying now.
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@Earth
Pardon? I didn't lie. My role is motion detector, except I can also check what my target was doing on any NP of my choosing. Admittedly I wasn't clear when I fullclaimed yesterday but I did
…So, wait, you can determine what your target did retroactively? That’s hard to believe and doesn’t jive with any version of motion detector I’ve heard of before. And yeah, withholding that information last DP after you were pressured that hard makes me sus you. What reason did you have to leave that off?
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@iamanabanana
Hello. I am Major Neitsch, I am a 1x watcher and 1x tracker. NP1 I watched lunatic thinking he was the most likely night kill, no one visited him. Np2 I tracked earth as he was my biggest suspicion. He visited lunatic.Vtl earth.I was also was invited to a pm last night but I cannot join the link. I’d guess that’s because lunatic is dead.
I can confirm that Luna chose you as the target of his role last DP (we discussed it) so that tracks.
As for Earth… yeah, plenty of reason to scumread him already so he’s the likely lynch this DP, especially with this info. I think it’s likely no one visited Luna DP1, and tracking Earth makes sense based on last DP and your reads. I’ll hear him out and we should discuss other night actions before proceeding.
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@Earth
Thats a lie btw. Also I used my role to check what Cerulean did NP1. He was either visited or did something.
Earth, are you saying you lied about using your role on me last DP? Why would you do that?
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@Earth
Any results? WF, who did you visit?
I visited Luna for obvious reasons: getting another person into our Mason chat would have been a big help. I did that knowing he was the likely target of the NK (widely townread with a known and potentially concerning role for scum) but here we are. I fully expect that will direct some sus at me, but here we are.
From the framing of that first post, are you suggesting that you used your role on me again?
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@Greyparrot
Doesn’t seem like that’s what he’s taking issue with, but fair enough.
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