whiteflame

I have a strong hunch.

Not sure why you believe the role itself is scummy, but the fact that he chose you as his target and you basically verified that action doesn't exactly scream "scum" to me. In general, it doesn't make sense that he'd claim to have taken this action at all if he was scum, especially if the role has a scummy connotation. Also, if he was scum, why would he redirect to Croc, the claimed Hated? 

I think your analysis on WP doesn't make any sense. And you're probably right about Draft, but I'd sooner lynch him than lynch WP, who is also one of my stronger town reads.

I disagree, but I've already stated my position on the matter. I am familiar with every anime that has been mentioned so far. Love to get roles, but people have been disinclined so far. 

Apologies: she, not he.

I believe I know it as well, though I'm still not convinced he's town. Still, I'll go with you. We'll see if Draft sticks to his guns.

I'd agree with you if this wasn't WP we are talking about. The role itself is something I'm so unfamiliar with that I can't say it aligns with either side, but the flip flopping behavior doesn't seem out of place for him. I agree that it's worth us zeroing in on a lynch, but I don't think that WP looks sus enough to warrant that lynch. I also don't really understand the choice of target if he is scum, and given that you've basically verified that, Pie, I'm loathe to agree to a lynch on him.

Right now, though I don't have any solid reads, my choice would be between That1User (I'm tagging Ragnar in this because I just noticed that That1's character claim of Rias Gremory isn't on his list) and Drafterman, the former for both behavioral reasons and for a character claim that I don't buy, and the latter because of sheer obstinance.

As for any other reads, I largely agree with Speedrace's post #90. The only deviation I have is that I'm still null on Pie. Can't say I read him as town yet.

Much as I'm unfamiliar with the series, I do believe that's the right name. She's referred to as Lucoa, though her actual name is Quetzalcoatl. It's more the fact that he did the redirect at all, and that he was specifically aiming to redirect from someone he expected to target Speed (who I also see as town), that has me seeing him as town. Would be a strange move for scum. As a side note, the fact that you're Asuna makes me read you slightly as town as well, though that's largely because I expected her to be here.

Yeah, that's a weird one. It's also one of the series I'm least familiar with, though I am familiar with the character.

Got it. 

Let's get another character claim.

I checked with Supa. He confirmed that he's telling everyone if their night actions are being redirected and to whom, so that does make sense in this game.

1) We are prying into Water's claim regarding the redirect, hence the votes to get Water to full claim. He hasn't responded, so I don't understand the point of targeting Speed now beyond simply challenging his understanding of one or two roles. He clearly didn't fully understand how a Bus Driver would work at first, and quite honestly, I've never dealt with a Redirector before myself, so I wouldn't be surprised if this was Speed's first time encountering it. Maybe that's sus, but I can't decide whether to be suspicious of Speed or Water at this stage without getting more information.

2) If this is the sole basis for pushing a lynch on Speed, it's pretty weak. They almost certainly are not scum partners because there wouldn't have been a disagreement in their stories if that was true. That would be incredibly sloppy scum play from Speed. The first scenario you provided sounds a hell of a lot more likely because Pie was consistently on Speed for a lynch in DP1 and led the charge throughout it. He would have to have assumed that Pie was either scum or vig, but even if neither of those were true, the reads in DP1 were thin at best. He made do with the information he had, and this was one of the most prominent pieces of information that round.

3) We have actionable information. That doesn't mean we could not use more. You keep dismissing the importance of character claims (pointing out one instance where a focus on character claims failed to result in a town victory is pretty weak reasoning - the information isn't what cost us that game), but treat a lapse in understanding of a rarely used role as sufficiently suspicious to pursue a lynch?

4) In general, your whole argument is for why you're not claiming doesn't make sense to me. You don't think character claims do anything, but despite their pointlessness, you'd sooner be lynched than provide your own. Maybe you think your particular character claim would be too obvious. Maybe you think character claims are only useful to mafia. Maybe you're just standing on principle and don't want to engage in what you see as a pointless practice. It's probably the last of those based on what you've been saying so far, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that position change in later DPs when it becomes safer to make a plausible fake claim. Alternatively, maybe you'll just keep holding out and claiming that there's always something more interesting to focus on. Whatever the reason, I'm just incredulous of your argument that these are simultaneously pointless and that keeping yours to yourself is entirely worth being lynched over. 

Post #5

Changed my vote to Water.

Well, since no one seems willing to push Draft on this (who has basically just given the reason I'm paraphrasing as "fuck you" for why he's chosen not to do so), I'll try someone else for now.

Really would like that full claim now that you've basically claimed to be the Redirector.

The claim came in DP1, and if you really do feel that claiming is useless, I find your obstinate attitude against claiming to be pretty sus.

And all of this is not to mention that we have Water claiming to have redirected an action against Speed last NP. Are you sus of him as well?

I disagree that he’s obviously scum. I think the Lucy Heartfilia claim makes it very difficult to believe that he falls into that camp. She’s not a borderline character at all, comes from a major Shonen series (if there wasn’t at least one Fairy Tail and Naruto character in here, I’d be absolutely shocked), and the role claim isn’t terribly out there. Don’t know why you think he’s clearly mafia, but I don’t see it.

I disagree. Character claims may be poorly linked to roles in this game, but especially at this stage, they can give a pretty decent idea of who could be lying. Most of the characters that have been claimed are obvious enough that I’d be surprised if Supa left them off the list. There are one or two that I see as far less likely, though. For example, Lucy Heartfilia and Zero Two were practically guaranteed to be in this game, partly based on Supa’s preferences and partly because they’re just obvious choices in the anime community. I’m a little less convinced that Chika and Rias Gremory are so obvious (the former seems somewhat plausible, the latter less so). 

By the end of the character claims, the point will most definitely be moot because the last couple of claims will know what remains and can base any fake claims on what remains. Doesn’t mean we gain nothing from pushing for character claims. And if you truly feel that it accomplishes nothing, then I don’t see why you’re refusing to claim.

MisterChris claimed Chika from Love is War.

Alright, let's keep the character and/or role claims coming in.

I’ll join this.

That clarifies it a bit, but I’d really like a full claim from you now. It sounds like you targeted Croc and made every action taken by Pie target him instead. That sounds like the Redirector, but I’d like that clarified, and provide the character it goes with. I’ll abstain from a vote since you provided this information willingly.

Also, two pieces of information received from Supa (just asked him). One, not all roles are on the spreadsheet used by Draft (though it seems most are). Two, ALL redirects are reported. So it does not matter what the roles say elsewhere - in this game, the mod will tell you if your action was redirected and to whom.

Not really convinced it's the Bus Driver, either, but it's one possible route. It's more disprovable than others, though, so I can understand your incredulity.

Also, I would agree that there's an easy way to verify this, but that would rely on a willingness for at least one power role to out themselves, which I don't suspect anyone will do. Still, I'll put out the call: did anyone visit either Speed or Croc during NP1? You don't have to provide any information you received or actions you took, just verifying that you did visit one or the other and whether you got a redirect notice would be something.

I'm having a lot of trouble with iLikePie's claim in general. For starters, I'm really unclear on why he chose to target you, specifically. Personally, I thought your character claim was pretty credible, that's why I changed over to town reading you. Maybe iLikePie still felt suspicious in the absence of a role claim, but even if he was behaviorally suspicious of you, the fact that you had a character claim (not to mention a main character of Fairy Tail as that claim) should have at least made him hesitate in that choice. Other options were, admittedly, more shots in the dark due to a lack of information, but targeting you just seems like a weird choice in general to me.

That being said, I have some thoughts on your analysis. Maybe you have some intel on at least one person who did successfully visit you (you seem to imply that that's the case, though I won't press you on that), but if that's the case, we'd have to verify that that person didn't receive a redirection notice (or, at least, that they would have if they were redirected - I know those notices are not always given). Also, you don't agree to bus drive. From what I'm reading, a Bus Driver selects their targets, so it wouldn't have been a choice you actively made. I don't think you used Bus Driver on yourself (or that you are the Bus Driver, for that matter - it would be a very weird choice for Lucy Heartfilia), but someone could feasibly have imposed it on you.

Honestly, I knew my argument was pretty throwaway. So long as I got a character claim out of it, I'm satisfied. Chika's an interesting choice, have some thoughts on a possible role, but I'll keep them to myself for now.

If you wanted to turn this back around on me, you're a bit too late. Speed all but town confirmed me, so unless you think he and I are a scum team here, you have little room to argue that I'm somehow more suspect.

As for uncertainty being town behavior, considering that we were in a DP1 where no one could agree on a lynch target for the majority of the time, I don't think uncertainty in that phase in this game is indicative of much at all except an unwillingness to commit to any of the information you're providing. Nor do I think actively contributing evidence is necessarily town behavior. It can provide useful insights, sure, but it can also be used to direct others in a certain direction. 

All this being said, I don't read you as scum yet. Doesn't change my vote, though. Goal this phase should be to increase our pool of information. Are you willing to contribute to that pool or not?

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Lunatic was the NK, but I decided to cover my bases.

And yeah, that clarifies it for me. Didn't know that the effect could go both ways.

Confirmed. Clearly, since Mai was modkilled by Supa, Supa is, in fact, the mafia Driver. And here, we all thought he was just the mod. It was the perfect crime before you posted that video. I'm onto you.

From what I'm reading, it's possible that it's a Bus Driver. They'd select 2 players (Speedrace and Croc/Lunatic) and anything targeted at the first player (in this case, Speedrace) would be shifted to the second target (in this case, Croc or Lunatic). Not the only possibility, but it's on the list.

And, yeah, I figured Speed would target me if he had a power role. That choice is not surprising.

Well, that makes things pretty easy. Much as it was a rocky DP1, I do town read you now. The link between Lucy Heartfilia and Dreamer doesn't seem all that strong to me (I'd actually be interested in hearing what it says), but I will hold off on claiming at this point based on your assessment.

I'd like to get more information, and this time, I'd like to start pressuring early. Based on some slight behavioral suspicions I got in the last DP (he was very involved, but largely unwilling to commit to any votes), I'll VTL MisterChris til I get a full claim.

Well, guess it doesn't matter much anymore, but VTNL because it looks like this DP is going nowhere.

I unvoted a couple of posts back.

See, I expected Speed to push me to claim, but you pushing me is pretty rich considering that we’ve been on the same page for much of our choices throughout this game. I’m not sure what suddenly has you suspicious of me, but every reason I can think of applies equally well or better to you. If anyone’s been bandwagoning much of this game with limited logic to explain it, that would be you. Not sure why Speed is ignoring that in his choice to vote for me, but that’s his choice.

In general, I liked the idea of getting more claims this DP when there were several noob wildcards that we wanted to nail down. In their absence, I’m willing to seek one or two, but I don’t think we stand to gain much by outing too many people at this stage. We don’t have much information yet, so I can understand seeking some, though.

Dude, I didn't give a "what she said" response to Danielle's post. I gave my own analysis, which was both distinct from the points Mikal was making (I outright said that I thought his point was BS), and which was based largely on a series of posts I made earlier (well before Danielle made her views known). I chose to reserve judgement for a time and, after Danielle made her points, determined that they were in line with the views I expressed previously. If you want to call me sus for bandwagoning, at least try to be accurate with regards to what wagon I was on and when.

Since we have traded in the last noob, I'll simply unvote for now.

Well, given that the previous target is gone and that I’m still uncertain regarding whether others will be replaced:

VTL crystalynx 

Claim.

Well, at this point, I'd like to at least push the inactives to be more active. Hence, I'll join the VTL Coreyinthehouse group. 

Will catch up when I’m done at work. 

Haven’t read most of the posts up to this, but I see the character claim. I’ll hold to my promise. 

I buy the claim because Lucy is a very obvious choice for characters to include in this. That would change for one and only one reason: anyone got Erza Scarlet?

As a fan of Konosuba, I do buy this claim.

As I largely agree with what Danielle posted in #384, and as I'm tired of sitting on the fence about it, I'll just go with the gut response I had to this whole thing to begin with: 

As far as I'm concerned, if he'd rather be lynched than even partially claim, then I think it may just be best to lynch him. Like Danielle, I think he's some kind of TP, but if it's not a Mime or Jester, then I am sincerely having trouble understanding what his aim was in responding to Mikal as he did. I don't doubt that he was actually flustered by it, but I'm very unused to seeing Speed play this way, and I have my reservations about why he is doing this. I don't think he's scum, but his unwillingness to claim on the basis of principle alone is weak at best, especially when both Danielle and I are challenging him largely on the basis of his response to Mikal's accusations rather than the merit of the accusations themselves. Speed justified some of his response, but I still feel that there's too much that doesn't make good sense to me, and now that I've had some space to consider it, I think a push to at least partially claim is entirely justified.

If Speed wants to ride his principles to a lynch simply because he refuses to look weak to these accusations, I guess that's his choice, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me for someone who is town. It doesn't make great sense for scum, either, but given that we're dealing with a broad category, I can imagine that he might struggle to come up with a waifu that wouldn't get CC'd. Making a truthful character claim to allay suspicion may also be dangerous, particularly if the waifu he's received is a yandere like Yuno Gasai from Future Diary (I suspect at least one yandere is scum). If he's a TP, then I suspect he might run into similar problems as he would if he's scum.

So, I can understand not wanting to out your role if you're town, but I have a much harder time understanding why you would want to avoid a character claim unless that character is so intrinsically tied to a role that you can't claim without revealing it. If that's the case, I would have expected to see some hints of it coming through in Speed's responses. I have not, so that's where I stand.

As for lynching Croc or getting a newbie to claim, I'm still willing to consider that should Speed partially claim.

Stepping away for a while, might be a few hours.

For the same reason that I was policy lynched: a Hated townie gives mafia the ability to kill someone without a majority vote late game. If it gets down to an ELo situation, the Hated basically makes the game unwinnable for town.

Not particularly a fan of the VTNL route myself. I think the goal should be to push for a couple of claims before the end of the DP, and taking off the pressure does nothing but render this DP moot. I'd be with you on policy lynching Croc if we don't have any clear scum reads. Don't think we stand to gain much by keeping him in the game when he's claimed Hated, and we'd practically have to lynch him at some point regardless (says the person who was put in the same circumstance two games ago).

Question above directed at you two as well.