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@ILikePie5
Why does the order matter then. Shoot Casey or lynch Casey, you’ll still get the same information. Only difference is today or tomorrow. We have the time either way.
To me, it matters that it informs two lynches rather than just one, whereas shooting Vader will almost certainly have no chance of informing the lynch this DP. Maybe I’m wrong, but I doubt it.
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@ILikePie5
Wym inform the lynch? I am in a separate chat with Casey, so I can confirm that Casey is telling the truth about being a Mason. The only questions is if they’re a scum Mason or town Mason. If Casey flips as scum Mason, it doesn’t tell you anything about me.
Again, my point was and remains that if Casey flips something that is not Mason, that’s when it matters.
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@Vader
If y'all think I'm scum so badly and Casey flips town when you shoot, town is essentially fucked. I always am under the pretense that getting rid of scum first is better than taking a gambit. I obviously am going to disagree with me getting shot because I am town anyway but it is going to be too hard to go post for post on this issue on why Earth should be the lynch
I am apparently the only person who was advocating shooting someone other than you, so I’m not sure why you directed this at me. I just don’t agree on Earth.
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@Casey_Risk
My PoE remains unchanged. You're town, Pie is town, GP is town, Austin is town, and I know I'm town. That just leaves Earth and Vader. I think one of the two has to be a Godfather or a Lawyer. It fits with Luna's mod style, as I've already mentioned.
Well then, the flip on Vader will decide whether this pairing is still possible. I can’t see Earth being with anyone else.
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@ILikePie5
Now let’s say Austin’s fake category role involves a day action. Then he can’t use a mafia night action. Ask me more questions. It’s confusing as hell.So you’re wrong. I did say it. You just misinterpreted or missed it altogether.
I’ll admit, I missed this scrolling through your posts on my phone. That’s my bad. I’ll take your point on this one, it is possible that Earth could have a daytime and night role, though I still think GF would stretch the wording you posted pretty far.
Masons can recruit scum members. Thats why Casey is in the POE.
Not sure what this has to do with my point. If Casey is a scum or town mason, then their recruiting you is possible either way. My point was if we verified that Casey is not the mason, that could inform the lynch since you said you’re in a separate chat with him through the mason role, though I guess that doesn’t matter given Earth made his choice.
Test what as it relates to me?
See above.
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
@Casey_Risk
Don’t want to leave you all out of this discussion. Give your thoughts.
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@Earth
@AustinL0926
I’ll note that the only information we gain from shooting Vader first is whether he’s scum or not. We don’t learn anything that will help contextualize previous DPs since we already know Vader is the double voter. It tells us nothing about anyone else. Shooting Casey first is the right call because it lets us test their role and how it relates to Pie before we make a decision on who to lynch. Vader is not taken off the table by doing so.
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@ILikePie5
Then you misunderstood what I said initially. I said scum have 4 roles, 2 each. Each scum has a role in their category to prove it and then one role from the special category. If a member of the mafia has 2 active roles, they can only use one DP/NP cycle. For example, if Earth uses Vig right now, he cannot use his mafia active role tonight.
I mentioned it with the whole active/passive role. They can’t use a DP active role and NP active role. It’s one or the other.
Dude, I quoted your initial post. I’ve done it several times. It makes no mention, nor does your clarification in DP1, of a DP/NP split. This is a brand new clarification in DP3, so don’t pretend that it’s always been there. Why did you leave it out of the information you gave in DP1?
What information does Casey’s flip give that Supa’s doesn’t and vice versa?
I think Casey’s flip will be more informative and could alter our perceptions of what to do with the lynch. If they are the Mason Recruiter, then you’re confirmed town and we can be more confident in town support of Vader’s lynch. If Casey flips scum, then we can have a discussion over how you confirmed their role.
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@AustinL0926
I think it's correct just to have Earth place his vote on Casey and shoot Vader, and then we decide from there.
Any particular reason you prefer this order? I've taken to the opposite: shooting Casey and, depending on the flip, lynching Vader.
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@ILikePie5
Okay so you want to lynch Casey today? Fine with me.
That’s fine with me. It’s POE either way. Cause there’s 2 scum in Earth, Casey, Supa. If you townread Earth and Vader flips scum, we can lynch Casey.
I said I'd prefer to shoot Casey, hence that whole "vice versa" in the parenthesis. I'd like to see Casey's flip before we decide the lynch, but right now, my default is to lynch Vader.
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@ILikePie5
I still don’t understand what your point is. I’ve said that scum can have 2 roles each. If they have 2 active roles, they can use only one per DP/NP cycle.
Now you're just modifying what you said initially. The message said:
Even though scum have a total of 4 roles, they can use one role per NP aside from the NK.
I don't see anything about limiting what can happen during a DP/NP cycle, and that information would have been super relevant since it would have hinted at the existence of a DP-use role on the scum team.
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@ILikePie5
We’re arguing for zero reason. If you think the team is Casey/Vader, we’ve already won the game.
At this point, I'm not believing that because I think you're putting us in a place where Vader and Earth get killed first and then Casey. At least one person between Vader and Casey are scum. That's my position. If that's true, then we should absolutely not lynch Earth under any circumstances this DP, and when you argue this:
I’m fine with Earth shooting Vader, but he can’t vote again after that if he’s alive in future DPs, which would be a problem for us. That’s why I’m saying we should force Earth to shoot Vader, then lynch Earth (just to be safe + utility). If Earth is indeed town it is 3-1 MYLO tomorrow. And then lynch Casey or VTNL for better odds in a 2-1. With one of Pie/Austin/GP alive as town and Casey/Whiteflame.If we leave Earth alive and he shoots Supa and Earth is a townie, we’re permanently down a vote. We cannot win at MYLO with a Townie Earth alive. So the option is make Earth shoot Vader and then lynch Earth. Or just lynch Vader right now. I like the former option because I townread WF and it would leave Casey as confirmed scum in 2-1.
I'm entirely baffled. This argument relies on there being one scum between Vader and Earth. That's possible, but I'd say we're guaranteed to hit scum if we shoot Vader and lynch Casey (or vice versa, which right now, is what I'm supporting), since they cover all possible scum pairs, whereas this is a gamble based on one possible scum pair.
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@Casey_Risk
I don't quite understand this argument. Pie said that the mafia selected from a list of mafia-exclusive roles, so presumably they could have picked something other than what they did. Also, Pie said that they have two roles each. So, one might be a Godfather while the other has an active role.
See my responses to Pie. My point is not that scum could not possibly have picked Godfather as a role. My point was that it makes part of his information suspect if Earth specifically did, since it creates a non-choice between using his roles, whereas Pie's info strongly suggests a requirement exists for each scum player to choose.
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@ILikePie5
Idk what every night role entails. I received no clarification whether it’s an active or passive role. Regardless, if it’s passive, it could be GF, if it’s active, it could be a Lawyer.
If Earth has a passive role, then he is effectively entirely unlimited in his usage of both roles. If Luna went through the trouble of specifying that scum individually have a pair of choices they can select from, which is what you stated in your clarification of your role, but then went on to give them two roles that are never on a trade-off, then that is pretty bastard, especially since your role is literally only a source of what should be completely accurate information.
Yes, it's possible that he has the Lawyer. That runs into the same problem, since his Day Vig does not incur any kind of trade-off.
Yes, options to pick from not on this list implies the special category for scum. Just cause GF is a passive role doesn’t mean it can’t be in the scum category of roles.
I think it's plausible for scum to have access to a Godfather, I agree. I just don't think that Earth has that role, at least with the information you've given us.
I spelled it out. You’d have to assume I chose a non-confirmable role as scum. On top of that, I made up the entire Informed claim information. On top of that, I am WIFOMing this entire argument. Literally that’s a million assumptions to make.
You listed 3 assumptions, let's not be hyperbolic. Yes, you would have to WIFOM your entire argument. You're doing that whether you're town or scum, so that's irrelevant. You would have to choose a non-confirmable role as both scum and town as well. Again, that's a non-unique argument. So really the only thing you've listed here that's specific to you being scum is that you'd have to make up the Informed claim, and... yeah, I absolutely believe you could do that. I didn't like how it was written from the outset, and I made a couple of long posts explaining why it stood out to me in DP1. It's entirely possible that Luna wrote it, but do you sincerely expect me to believe you would never do this? It's a gambit, but not a huge one, and it makes a lot of sense given the argument I was presenting back in DP1 about scum claims and confirmability.
Yes? There is clear value in being confirmable. Scum don’t know that I knew that they have 2 roles. If they have confirmable roles, they just POE the non-confirmable roles into oblivion. It’s easy for them to.
Non-unique argument for scum and town. Again, there's clear value to both scum and town to have a confirmable role. That doesn't mean there's no value to having an unconfirmable one, and yours has clearly shown its value 2 DPs in a row. Hell, it becomes a very convenient excuse for why you wouldn't get NK'd as well, since your role is done with at this point.
You and I are the only ones who have roles that aren’t confirmable based on everyone that has claimed. I read you as town. I want to lynch to Vader today. Tomorrow we can decide on Earth/Casey. Earth hasn’t played in a townie manner at all.
I don't like your position on this, but I'll bring that up in response to where you spelled it out more thoroughly.
Again. You’re arguing that I would go out of my way to choose a non-confirmable role in the hopes that all the townies got confirmable roles and I can WIFOM the fact that I chose a non-confirmable role. Wym tie it to one player’s flip?
Already addressed the first part. As for the second, my point was that if you are scum, you tie yourself to the flip of your scum partner. If your scum partner is lynched, your information would be disproven and you would become the obvious lynch. That's the extent of the risk you took in having your information be discovered as false if you are scum, so I don't see this as a particularly risky move if you are scum.
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Sincerely, though, I'm stepping off for now otherwise I'm going to be late leaving work. I'll check back in when I'm home.
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@Vader
Grey is not a confirmed town. Obvious I’d assume you say yourself as confirmed townie but you are not confirmed either. You are simply just a town read. Austin is the only confirmedFor someone who is adamant on role =/= affil. You are very ballsy to call GP confirmed town
This kind of thing isn't helping your case, dude. I agree he's not fully confirmed, but given that he was the Reviver and the lack of the NK in DP1 (absent your trying to commit the kill and failing due to the RB) can currently only be explained through a role change on GP that either protected him or was used to protect someone else, I'd say GP is as solid town as it gets without absolute confirmation.
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Didn't finish this thought:
Claiming you chose a non-confirmable role that looks like the information behind it could be confirmed by flips seems like a genuinely good tactic for scum, especially when the only flips that could give you away are your own and your scum partner's. I think a lot of people gave you a pass because they thought this was risky, but I sincerely don't see a huge risk at all if you only tie yourself to one other player's flip.
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@ILikePie5
They have 2 roles. One to help prove their category and one from special category for mafia. So Earth can be a Day Vig and Godfather at the same time? Where’s the confusion. Regardless we lynch Vader today. What are his town tells to you
You specifically said:
Mafia started with two roles each. The first to prove the category they know to be fake one to help prove their fake category, and one every night role from a special selection of roles exclusive to mafia. Even though scum have a total of 4 roles, they can use one role per NP aside from the NK.
Based on that alone, I'd agree with you. It is possible, since it says they have "a special selection of roles exclusive to mafia"... except for two things.
First, that kind of throws a wrench into your whole "they have an every night role" part of this explanation. If scum have a Godfather and a 1X Day Vig, then they have no night roles to select, yet you say they individually "can use one role per NP aside from the NK". Unless you consider a passive role a "role use," that doesn't match.
Second, here's the text from the OP in DP1: "7 of the following 9 Role Categories belong to the town. Mafia will have role options to pick from not on this list however." Specifically, the "list" he's referring to is the Categories, not the list of available roles under them. Maybe that leaves some leeway for certain roles, but it puts Godfather in a tricky spot since it's clearly a Passive role.
Idk why you’re sussing me. You have to assume I chose a non confirmable role at the beginning, knew that everyone would have a confirmable role, and had to WIFOM it. It makes zero sense.
Honestly, I don't know why everyone seems so ready to townread you for this. This entire argument is WIFOM. Claiming you chose a non-confirmable role that looks like the information behind it could be confirmed by flips seems like a genuinely good tactic for scum. I understand that there's value in claiming a confirmable role, but considering your own claim put the spotlight chiefly on confirmable roles, I can see you doing it as scum. Sincerely, why not? Because there's value in being confirmable? Everyone that's been sussed so far has been confirmable. Austin had a confirmable role and was lynched. Savant arguably was confirmable as well. It didn't save them.
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@Greyparrot
This is why poe with an earth day vig could really help as it would basically solve the game. I know it's a big risk but so is the reward.
There may be value in using it for the sake of reducing PoE, I just don’t like the way that Pie’s using it throw sus at Earth.
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One more thought that’s been bothering me. Assuming the information Pie received is real, there’s very little likelihood that Earth is the Godfather. That would be a Passive role, so it wouldn’t support his Category claim at all (and couldn’t anyway if he had claimed Passive). Pie said scum were given a role to prove their Category and a role outside of the 9 Categories. So the explanation that he is the Godfather and that’s how he showed up as town when I Copped him doesn’t work, at least not if you believe that he has a Killing role.
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There are so many things I don’t like about this sus on Earth. Yes, his role is confirmable. Over half the roles in the game are apparently confirmable, so both scum and town had incentive to select roles that confirm themselves. Being confirmable or making a suboptimal choice doesn’t mean you’re more likely to be scum if the incentive exists regardless of the side you’re on, and we already had this argument over Austin’s choice and he flipped town. So I sincerely am at a loss when we’re back to almost the exact same fucking argument that got Austin lynched to justify sussing Earth.
How Earth views Vader is a concern given how many of us have scumread his actions so far, as is his decision not to use his role last DP, but with the loss of his vote, I can at least understand why he’d make that call as town. I wish he’d explained everything publicly last DP, but I also cannot see how his play makes sense with this role if he’s scum. It’s not just suboptimal, it’s downright bad if he’s scum. Hence I said this comes off as anti-town more than anything else.
The logic for making this a heads up between Vader and Earth is just beyond me. The choice is between Vader and Casey. I agree with Austin on that. If we want to use Earth’s role to take one of them out and lynch the other if they flip town, I’d understand that a lot better, but we have to take into account to loss of Earth’s vote and be near certain that one of them is scum.
I’ll think about whether I’m ready to take that bet, but I’ve been running around all day and I’m going back to a lot of work after lunch, so it’ll have to wait.
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@ILikePie5
I said I hate making the balance argument in the first place, but it’s a possibility nevertheless. My main point is that I want to avoid the possibility because it explains why Earth hasn’t used his ability yet especially since he is lying that he didn’t scumread anyone yet he voted to lynch Earth.
Possible maybe, but not what I’d consider likely. As for whether Earth scumread someone yesterday, it’s clear that he had thoughts on it, and I’d have preferred that he shared them publicly as well as his role. The DP got cut short, but not so much that he couldn’t have done that. Still, I don’t see that as necessarily scummy. Why would he reveal that he’s the Day Vig now if that’s the case? Why not just push attention to someone else, claim a night acting killing role, say he’ll use it this NP, and end the game at the start of the next DP with no one the wiser?
I know it was never a guarantee. But the option was there. Anyways forget about the balance argument. Who else are you entertaining as scum right now?
The point wasn’t that it’s not a guarantee. It’s that the balance argument actively runs contrary to your point. Giving scum a Killing role under the premise that GP was always going to pick Reviver is a weak claim for how the “balance” was supposed to be struck, and I don’t love how quick you are to walk it back, either.
I’ve said the three pairings I’m entertaining as scum. Earth is in one of those pairings. So are you. Casey and Vader are in two of them, so as of right now, they’re my top scumreads.
Just forget about the balance argument. It’s conceivable that scum could have an extra kill, and Earth hasn’t exactly played in a townie way today.
I don’t like how Earth has played, but if balance suggests anything, it suggests he’s town. His choice not to use his role reads as anti-town, not as scummy to me. It’s still possible that he’s scum, but as of now, he’s below you on likelihood for me. I’m still not sure who I’d prefer as the lynch between Casey and Vader, but one of them is my priority this DP.
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@ILikePie5
It balances well with the Reviver that GP has. I just want to avoid the headache of this being a possibility tomorrow because his reasoning for saving it is garbage. If Earth refuses, then we lynch him, plain and simple.
I... really don't like how you're talking about balance this way when just two DPs ago, you were dismissing balance altogether as not meaningful in this game due to Luna's OP. Considering it was never a guarantee that GP was going to pick the Reviver role, the notion that it's there to balance a Killing role that was definitely going to exist regardless and be scum-sided to boot just doesn't sit well with me, either. Nor do I like this attitude that it's either Vader or Earth that has to die.
I'll revisit this when I have more time, but as of now, I'm not liking this post.
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@ILikePie5
My working theory is that he is scum and “saving” the extra kill till LYLO so scum can auto win. It just doesn’t make sense to avoid using it for 2 DPs straight when there were plenty of targets. He’s also implying that he didn’t scum read anyone, which is just not true considering he voted to lynch Austin DP1. An Earth/Supa team is likely imo.I suggest we force him to shoot Supa today. If Supa is somehow magically town, we no lynch and go into LYLO tomorrow not worrying about this. If Supa is scum, then we go ahead and lynch Earth. I hate the balance analysis argument but it makes sense for the second kill cause GP can theoretically revive a townie.
I'll give this some thought, though I highly doubt that scum were given an extra killing role, not to mention a day killing role with only one Protective role in play (and only one of those even being useful in this instance [the BP] and only then as self-defense), and that Earth would out himself as having it if he was scum and waiting to use it. That doesn't line up for me.
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I'm going to call it here for tonight. I will say that it's frustrating to only find out about this actually being a Day Vig this late. At 7-2, using it would have been very helpful in reducing PoE. Now, with 5-2, it puts us at MYLO.
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@Earth
A) i felt like I didn't really have a good option besides hipfiring.
You bolded your Day Vig last DP and somehow it didn't go off. Was that a bluff or some failure to activate your role?
Not sure what a scum line is. Maybe the team is WF/Casey?
I don't know where this is coming from since I don't think you were sussing me before. Could you explain this view as well as why you see us as a plausible team?
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@AustinL0926
Why is Casey/Vader not a possible team?
Like I just said to Pie, it is possible. I wasn’t thinking of crossover pairings when I made that first post because I dismissed Earth/Pie out of hand.
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@ILikePie5
Casey could be scum. Luna has made Masons scum before. I willingly chose a non-confirmable role, which makes zero sense for me to do as scum. Everyone else has a confirmable role except you, but you weren’t given one to begin with, which is an outlier as well. If you’re alive, scum are relying on a Godfather or something similar from their special category. Casey/Vader is conceivable to me
The first argument is WIFOM and a combination of that and you being pretty behaviorally townie has led others to see you as solid town. Not so sure myself.
I do, however, think Casey/Vader is another plausible pair. It certainly wouldn’t be a first to have a scum Mason. I’ll need to look back through the previous DPs to see if that makes sense based on their interactions so far.
I don’t think you and Earth would both somehow manipulate my result, so I can’t see you as a scum team. Seems you agree with me that scum are prepared to manipulate my role, so they either have already or don’t fear it going forward, both of which suggest the Godfather as you say.
I’d really like Earth’s claim and some reason why he has yet to use his Killing role over the previous two DPs. That’s my priority for now, the rest is parsing these potential scum pairings.
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So... yeah, I don't like about how that last DP ended. Vader's decision to hammer early with his double voter definitely doesn't sit well with me, and especially now that we know Savant was telling the truth and he was RB'd (which remains the most likely explanation for why an NK wasn't committed in NP1), he's practically the default lynch at this point.
As for the choice of NK, I'm definitely surprised. Not sure why scum would have targeted WyIted beyond him being widely townread, since he had already claimed to use his role. I was the obvious target, and I fully expected to be the NK. Nonetheless, I chose to target Earth and it came back innocent.
And therein lies the problem. If that result is right, then I'm out of PoE for who could be Vader's potential scum partner. I just don't buy that GP could be scum and have the Reviver role, which we've already confirmed. Austin is confirmed town by his flip. So I only see two options:
Earth manipulated my result and it's a Vader/Earth scum team.
Or... Casey and Pie are a scum team.
I kind of wrote off this pairing being in the game after Casey tied themselves so tightly to Pie last DP. If Casey was somehow killed and flipped scum (and given Earth's still unknown Killing role, that was still a possibility), it would put Pie in the crosshairs. But that might just have been a risk they were willing to take. Setting that aside, there are really only two unknowns: why didn't they commit an NK and why did I Cop Pie innocent? The latter question applies just as well to Earth. The former is more of an open question, but given what WyIted was suggesting he did with his role and how he believed GP's role works, there does seem to be an explanation:
GP's role activated during the DP, was changed during the NP, and he is either BP or the Doc (I won't speculate which). Either one could explain the lack of an NK.
I'll be clear, I'm not sure which story I buy more right now. We know Savant's night action would have prevented the NK and was used on Vader. We only have WyIted's now cut off speculation about how he might have used his role, which might also have something to do with his NK.
With us at 5-2, we can take another mislynch if we need to, but I think we should discuss these two possibilities before committing to any lynch.
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@Earth
@ILikePie5
@Casey_Risk
Tagging everyone for the new DP.
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Well, I guess it's not a bad choice to see what happens, but I'm not fond of this lynch, either. Really would have liked a full claim from Earth this DP and we had the time. Really would have liked a response from WyIted that made actual sense about how he used his role and how that could have prevented the NK. Guess those will have to wait.
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@ILikePie5
Watcher and Tracker make sense, but what’s the point of Category Cop?
Presumably to avoid anything that could modify the result like a Godfather or the Miller Austin could have been. That's the likely reason that the role was 1X - all the other roles could yield incorrect results based on the role of my target.
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@WyIted
So you already know, as we already know, that your role wasn't used on GP, who clearly used his revival on Austin. Why are you being coy about this?If the new role can be used the same night they receive it, how would them previously having a daytime activated role change that?My interpretation of what I was told is that the new role can be used the same night it is recieved
So... wait, you think the Reviver is a Daytime role? Where did GP say he could use his role during the DP? If you're right that it activates before the NP (I looked back and I don't see anywhere GP ever said that), then it would be during the Twilight Phase after the lynch is executed. It literally can't happen during the DP because the lynch ends the DP. Luna didn't hold a Twilight Phase. So, again, what's your theory here?
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@Savant
guessing you, specifically, had the RB is less clearI claimed role blocker yesterday.
Damn, for some reason I thought you claimed this DP. That's my mistake. Yeah, then it's possible.
However, you not remembering that makes me pretty sure you are town. WyIted and Earth as a team is looking more likely now, though idk if that is confirmation bias on my part.
It's possible. I'm still considering it, and I don't understand why WyIted being coy about using his role on GP when he clearly didn't.
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@WyIted
Even if you changed his role, that would have taken place after he'd used it, meaning he couldn't have used the Doc.Correct let's lynch savant
You'll need to explain this one to me. I just pointed out that it does not make sense for GP to have protected the target of the NK, regardless of whether you used your role on him or not.
Also, and I can't believe I'm just remembering this now: you said this last DP:
I just got clarification. They in fact do adopt their new ability the same exact night I change them. So we can actually prevent a nk tonight if I use it on GP
You confirmed it when I asked you this:
So, once again, to clarify: it takes effect on the same night before they use their role, correct?
So you already know, as we already know, that your role wasn't used on GP, who clearly used his revival on Austin. Why are you being coy about this?
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@WyIted
I told the person whose role I switched to keep their mouth shut but doctor is one of GPs options and the role change takes effect for that nights ability so for all we know I targeted GP and he blocked the NK and he is sworn to silence
So you publicly told your target to keep their mouth shut about the change? I think I recall something like that from DP1 where you said that anyone you used it on shouldn't mention it (hardly swearing someone to silence, but OK), but the change you describe here does not make sense. Austin is back in the game. Someone revived him. GP's role revives players. Even if you changed his role, that would have taken place after he'd used it, meaning he couldn't have used the Doc.
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@Vader
If this was any other mod I would totally be on your side. But this also a Lunatic game. Luna has given mafia the type of roles that reveal a lot of info to the mafia team. Remember when we were a team last time. The same thing happened with Pie in the Invincible Game. Lunatic would be a mod to do such a thing and I can not fully rule out something like this to happen
I mean, I do remember Luna tends to be pretty forthcoming when it comes to giving information to scum, though then we're talking about giving scum some kind of investigative or passive information role, two Categories that are spoken for by townread players. It's possible whatever this would be would fall outside of the 9 Categories entirely, or that Luna just gave scum certain pieces of information separate from their roles, so I'm not ruling this out. I just can't say it's likely given what we know about the distribution of roles and their respective Categories.
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@Savant
Why would scum sacrifice a night kill to "frame" a town member, when they could instead just guarantee they kill town at night? If it's to avoid getting lynched the next day, then that means I'm certainly not scum, because I'll def get lynched tomorrow if Vader flips town. Plus delaying kills of town gives town more time to do night actions and such.
I don't think scum would just sacrifice the NK for the sake of framing someone. There's an outside chance that scum is banking on some role they have that allows some benefit if they abstain from the NK, but that kind of speculation won't get us anywhere. I think it's more likely that scum tried and failed to execute the NK. The fact that they had an obvious target in GP, someone who could bring Austin back to life and effectively reset the game, and knew that there wasn't a Doctor in the game since that was on the list of choices GP didn't pick, suggests that something prevented the NK and so far yours is the only role we've seen that could have done that.
The only mafia strategy I see is a deliberate waive of the NK to implicate whoever Savant would’ve RBed and then lynch Savant himself for lying. But that’s very riskyIf this did happen, it would have a 100% chance of stopping the night kill, whereas my roleblock wasn't guaranteed to get scum or even the scum doing the night kill specifically. And Vader should have known I was going to roleblock him, so why would he do the night kill?So if that's the case, which I'm now not really sure about, it makes Earth probably the biggest suspect. And Wylted's push of me would set them up nicely for a double mislynch. I don't know how reasonable this is, but an Earth/Wylted team would be interesting.I want to get thoughts on this from people who aren't Earth, WyIted, or Vader.Unvote for now.
See, the problem I have with this is that it implies scum have pretty detailed knowledge of the roles that weren't claimed yet. They had to know that you had an RB, that that RB could prevent the NK, and that you'd use it on a town player. Maybe they just took a gamble on all of these, and the last one makes sense (when you have 5-2 odds of hitting town at least and you had made clear your sus of Vader), but guessing you, specifically, had the RB is less clear. I suppose if it was Vader/Earth as a scum team, they would have had a coin flip on which of us was the Role Stopper role, but even then, knowing that it was the RB instead of any other role is a stretch.
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Well, for the second night in a row, I got a terrible night's sleep, so today should be fun.
I will post more on my thoughts and reads as the day goes on. I suspect that, since I've now outed myself as the Cop, my role will almost certainly be messed with or I'll just be straight up NK'd tonight.
There is no reason whatsoever to rush this DP, especially since this is probably the last time all 9 of us will be able to chime in and provide our thoughts. Everyone should be posting a set of reads.
For now, at least, I'm going to clarify what I'm generally thinking. Casey's Mason Recruiter (which should fail if it targets scum from everything I've read) and my Cop on Pie both strongly suggest that Pie is town, since while mine could be fooled by a Godfather, Casey's can't. So unless he's a scum Mason who is tying himself to his own scum partner (possible, but I just don't see these two making that kind of gambit this early), Pie's town. Pie's the only one I'm talking about because he gave us pertinent information last DP that I think we should all be keeping in mind this DP. I broke it down to these four pieces of information in DP1:
- Mafia has two roles each
- One of those roles is in their faked Category, essentially making them actually part of that Category
- The other is from a separate Category that is not one of the nine stated categories
- Scum can only use one of their two roles per night, assuming that both are active PRs only usable at night
So we know scum likely have a role that publicly validates their claimed Category plus another role that is a toss-up. We know that no one died during the first NP, so either the NK was prevented or scum abstained from it, the latter of which seems unlikely given the obvious target (GP) who would revive Austin. We only have one claimed use of a role (Savant's RB) that could conceivably have stopped the NK. Our only publicly confirmed role is GP (and a scum reviver seems pretty blatantly absurd to me), though I would consider Casey's role basically confirmed as well. Austin is confirmed town by his flip. That leaves a good deal of room for uncertainty with the others beyond Pie, with my PoE currently consisting of: Vader, Savant (highly doubt they're on a team), WyIted and Earth. Given that Earth is, by default, the Killing role, I'd still like to get his claim, but I'd say it's at least significantly unlikely that scum have access to such a role and didn't use it. Still, I'll wait to get his claim before I say anything else about how I view this group.
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@ILikePie5
Well, I guess it’s basically obvious what I am given Earth’s gambit earlier.
I’m the Cop. Needless to say, Investigative role, probably useless now.
I targeted Pie last night. I needed confirmation that I could trust his information. I was pretty blatant about my uncertainties last DP. Result was innocent. Not impossible that he’s the Godfather or something (wouldn’t be a first), but for now at least, I buy that he’s town.
Other options were Watcher, Tracker and something called a Category Cop, which would have told me the category of my target but was also 1X.
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Anyway, it's late and I'm calling it here. Whatever stems from the stated Day Vig, I'll see it tomorrow.
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@Vader
@Savant
I roleblocked Vader.
So either Savant is lying through his teeth or I've been framed
Or you're scum and this prevented the NK. One of those three.
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@Earth
Didn't someone claim BP? Maybe town has a redirector or something of that sort.
GP claimed a Protective role: Reviver. He Revived Austin. We know that based on the OP. He also listed the three other roles he could have chosen: BP, Lynchproof and and Doctor. So yes, BP was mentioned, but that doesn't make sense of the lack of an NK. As for a Redirector, that's a Manipulation role, and we have that claimed as well by WyIted in the form of a Role Changer. I can't find it right now, but I know he had redirecting roles among his alternatives, so I'd say either he's lying or that rules it out as a means to stop the NK.
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@Earth
No, I'm doctor.
Clearly, and the existence of a now confirmed Protective role makes that so much more believable. Are you actually the Day Vig or no?
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@Earth
Day Vig Savant
Alright then. Was going to mention it seemed odd that the Killing role hadn't gone off, but I guess this answers that.
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@Vader
I keep re-reading this and taking something different away every time I do, so I'll just ask questions.
Did you know there were still 9 people left in the game when you claimed or did you miss that and claim under the presumption that there were 7-8 people left?
Regardless, why start off the DP with your claim? The only explanation I see here is that you say there were "enough options and leeway" but I don't understand what you're getting at. What value did you see in claiming this early?
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@Vader
I'll also take the time to claim now then.
Any particular reason you chose to claim now?
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@Greyparrot
you guys so bad if not scum for voting Austin based on behavior.
I... didn't? I wasn't on Austin's lynch and argued against it.
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