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So… hmmm…
Given that Austin’s back, I think we can confirm GP’s role. Seems somehow or other, the NK didn’t go through. That’s interesting given that we know it wasn’t a Protective role that did it. We know it’s not a Manipulative role either given that WyIted claimed Role Changer, so why the lack of an NK?
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@Savant
I believe scum isn't even in any of the categories, according to Luna's post. They just know which ones are fake. Given that I clearly fit in one, that improves the odds I'm town.
What he said was that scum have roles in those two Categories that town do not have, and that they also have roles outside the 9.
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Well, I think that’s a mistake. Guess we’ll handle the fallout next DP.
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Anyway, I'm heading to lunch and I'll try to figure out where I'd like to go with this afterwards. I've said I prefer the Savant lynch to the Austin lynch and I still do.
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@AustinL0926
Pie is town, mostly confident enough to bet the game on it.He's preemptively taking credit for a lynch in a manner that is extremely uninformed of my alignment. Scum doesn't say that *his* information guarantees I'm scum, scum doesn't say that *he* found a scumslip. If you go through past games, scum disproportionately are players who hop on bandwagons or casually egg on town-vs-town violence, not the ones who initiate pushes.
Austin, his basis for saying that you are scum is that his information demonstrates that scum will have roles in the two Categories to which town does not have access, and that your post suggested that they do as well despite having come before he revealed his info. I disagree with his take-away, as do you. I'll point out, though, that if you flip town, that doesn't disprove his information in any way. He can write that off as either a misinterpretation of what you posted or you being scummy without cause. His information could still be correct.
As for whether scum would do what he's doing, I'll point out that this is far from a first for Pie. He is often aggressive whether he's scum or town, and yes, that includes leading lynches on town in both roles. It's riskier, but Pie's gotten by on risky plays before.
I'm not saying any of this makes him scummy, and I understand why people are leaning town on him behaviorally, I just don't understand why anyone is townreading his role (which, again, is unprovable without either flipping scum or his own flip).
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@WyIted
So, once again, to clarify: it takes effect on the same night before they use their role, correct?
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@AustinL0926
Town's not going to reeval and lynch the obvious scum since changing reads is seen as a level 0 scummy play, if scum want the opportunistic mislynch might as well make it easier so we can move on to the next day
Not that it makes it easier for you to put your vote there instead of automatically self-hammering, but whatever.
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@WyIted
You guys have been exceedingly cautious with your vote and it doesn't help town to refrain from voting. Even in the early stages of the DP.
As I said, I'd prefer the Savant lynch right now. He's at L-1 from what I can see, though, given the Hammerer role. So I'm not placing my vote yet. I'd also be willing to lynch Pie, mainly to ascertain the truth of his information. I understand that you see him as town as do many others, though I'm still not so sure.
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@AustinL0926
Don't know why you'd post a vote on yourself since it's automatically placed on the lynch. I get the gesture, but it's kind of pointless.
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@WyIted
You asked and lunatic said same night but I am double checking. It seems to me that can't be true so I am going to ask the question a different way
What I asked was when during the NP does your role apply, i.e. does your target get to use their current role during the NP that you switch their role, or do they use their new role instead?
You guys never listen. Savant is literally scum. He was actually caught. Vader's suspicion of Austin for flipping reads a lot is dumb. Flipping reads a lot is indication of being town. Scum typically move their votes around less because people think it is scummy.
Don't know if I agree with your reasoning on why he's scummy, but I think his read on Austin didn't make a lot of sense and only came around to looking more accurate after the fact. That's true for Pie as well, but Savant seemed to place himself very opportunistically. At least right now, I prefer the Savant lynch to Austin, as I find it less likely that Austin would paint a big target on himself by framing everything he was doing as a gambit if he was scum.
Also Savant literally just claimed role blocker. I got bus driver and redirector as options. How many scummy roles do you think lunatic gave town?We can't all be scum roles.I am going to tell you guys alsoMy fourth role is essentially a CCThe one I didn't choose is and disclose is called brain shocker and it forces a person to self direct, so it essentially functions as a role block for active role.
As for this CC, I'm having trouble determining just how much it matters. Whether we believe Pie's information or we just note what Categories are in this game, we can and should suspect that a Role Prevention role exists in this game. The setup lends itself to some instances where there might be semi-CCs like this, and I'm not sure how much stock to put into that. There might be something to it (i.e. it might make more sense if the Role Prevention Category was scum so that there wasn't room for this CC on town), but I'm not sure how much stock to put into that.
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Alright, might as well update the list:
WyIted: Role Changer - Category: Manipulative
Austin: Hammerer - Category: Negative Utility
GP: Reviver - Category: Protective
Pie: Informed - Category: Passive
Savant: Roleblocker - Category: Role Prevention
We are now down to four unclaimed categories. Given that one of them is Investigative, I would prefer not to seek further claims and continue to narrow an already small window for scum to pick their target.
Investigative
Killing
Voting
Communication
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@Vader
I largely agree with your response with the caveat that it functions under the assumption that Pie’s information is true. Assuming that, yeah, there’s a lot of my initial analysis of confirmable roles that goes up in the air.
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@AustinL0926
I’m pretty slammed with work this morning, but suffice it to say that I don’t love this “reaction test” of Austin’s, nor his flip onto Savant. I was leaning town on him, but this has moved him into a slight scum lean for me. I don’t think that definitively makes him and Savant not a plausible scum team (Mharman and Austin sussed each other early last game and were both scum), but it puts some distance between them.
Also, and this perspective bothers me:Also ftr Pie is obvious town. Scum doesn't invent a fake informed role and push a scumslip off of it when all it does is make their info look fake after I flip. It's a genuine misinterpretation combined with Pie being his usual town self.
I get it if you’re townreading Pie behaviorally. I am as well, even though I really don’t like his role claim and his initial basis for sussing Austin is tenuous. What I don’t understand is how a town flipping Austin would make Pie’s information “look fake”. Can someone explain to me what part of Pie’s information is contradicted by Austin flipping town? Part of the reason I’m iffy on Pie’s information is that the only ways to verify it (or contradict it) is to get a scum flip or get Pie’s flip.
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@WyIted
I first noticed it a while back. For example how he was struggling to come up with real analysis so he said that pie was either 100% correct that Austin is scum or pie is scum. Then you have the large post he just did and yes it was fluff but it is not pure fluff. It reads like one of those essays as a kid where you have one sentence of content but stretch it out to 3 paragraphs to pass the assignment.Everything he says is not manufactured and exactly the way a bullshitter speaks
I didn't love that post, either. I'll give the lynch some thought, but unusually, I see where you're coming from.
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@ILikePie5
As for the information you've received, I want to get into this a little more because there are discrepancies.
You ask how it contradicts the OP. It doesn't. It does, however, contradict information from the sign-up thread that I've already referenced:
How this will work, is this will be an open set up game, with a list of 9 role Category types IE (Investigative, Protective, Manipulation, Preventative" Etc. I will be lying about two of those role categories being in the game, only mafia will know which two categories I am lying about, the other 7 will be truthful.
He said he would be lying about two of those categories being in the game, not just among town roles. Your role says they must necessarily be in the game and only available to scum. That's the contradiction I was pointing out.
But setting that aside, there are a few things that bother me about the information you received.
For one, reading the paraphrased version straight up led me to a different conclusion about how it worked than the description you later provided. I've already mentioned that, but maybe I can just chalk that up to misinterpretation on my part or issues with the paraphrasing on yours. There's some more odd phrasing where you say that scum definitely have two roles apiece based on your information, but then say they "theoretically can have 2 roles each". I'm not really questioning the how of it, they could certainly have two roles, so I don't have additional questions to pose about how that would work.
Beyond that, I just don't like how much information you received here. You didn't just get one piece of information, you got four:
- Mafia has two roles each
- One of those roles is in their faked Category, essentially making them actually part of that Category
- The other is from a separate Category that is not one of the nine stated categories
- Scum can only use one of their two roles per night, assuming that both are active PRs only usable at night
That's a lot of information, way more than the information that is apparently commonly given out with this role. It even comes with extra information baked into the second piece of information that should just be a given (that one of their claims is meant to "confirm" their category). Maybe that's just the result of asking a lot of questions and you progressively fleshing out what looked like a simple piece of information to begin with. I'm not sure, though I am surprised I'm the only one who is talking about all this as far as I've seen, especially considering the timing with which you presented it.
You gave your claim significantly after I explained why verifiable roles claims could be a big deal in this game, and also long after Austin made that initial post. Maybe that can be chalked up to your busy travel day and maybe I'm just reading into it too much, but I can't shake the feeling that this information is extremely convenient.
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@ILikePie5
So I'm going to respond along two separate veins, since this essentially breaks out to issues with your sus on Austin and issues with the information stemming from your role claim.
I'll start with Austin. You've got two big problems with him: his confidence that his Hammerer role vindicates him and the view that one of his posts revealed that he had knowledge he could only have as scum.
I'll start with the former.
We are literally coming off of a game where Earth was town and was the Hammerer. He was broadly townread as soon as he claimed for, basically, the exact same reasoning that Austin has provided apart from the more generalized balance issues. I don't really like that you're just dismissing balance altogether just because Luna said there would be issues with balance stemming from how our choices do or don't clash. I think it's valid to discuss some degree of what's likely based on trying to find an appropriate balance between PRs among scum and town.
All this being said, I'm not automatically concluding that a role confirmed Hammerer must be town in this game. It'd be a weird choice to give scum the option to be the Hammerer, but this is the kind of game that might include such a thing. It's unusual enough that I don't scumread Austin's initial response to having the role.
Then there's the revealed knowledge. The post you keep referencing is this one:
Pretty sure this hard confirms me as town, since it'd be atrocious from a balancing perspective to give scum a useless role when town has seven non-negative utility PRs.
Setting aside that this clearly focuses on balance, an issue you believe is largely irrelevant this game, I don't think his point is that scum were given "fully functioning role[s] from a fake category". He's saying that he doesn't believe they would be given his role, specifically, which doubles down on the "role confirmation means I'm town" argument. I get that you don't like the argument. I don't get how his saying that Luna hypothetically would not give this role to scum is also an explicit statement that Luna has given scum other roles that belong to fake categories.
None of this is to say that I see Austin as automatic town, I just don't agree with how you're reading into this quote and, at least so far, that's the main basis I've seen for you supporting his lynch.
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@ILikePie5
I’ll respond to you when I get on my computer in a bit, going to be difficult covering this on my phone.
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@Savant
He said:
My category is Passive and my role is Informed.
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@WyIted
When does your role take effect during the NP? It matters a lot if your target gets to use their current role before yours changes it, or alternatively, if it has precedence in the NP.
Also, you’ve posted a couple of times now without returning to your sus on me. Would still like to know where that’s coming from.
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@Savant
I just realized. If Pie is informed, then lynching him is zero risk because even if he becomes vanilla, we still have the information.
True, though that may be more of a tie-breaker on a lynch decision than anything else.
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@WyIted
I think they'll try to target an investigative or a protection tbh but also didn't GP say he was given the chance at lynchproof or Death proof. Despite him thinking lynchproof is useless, it seems pretty useful to me. It seems better than what he picked TBH. I wonder if scum have a recruitment role that acts upon death or something. It's a far out theory at the moment but I want to ponder it.
Might be worth checking to see when your role activates. Does your target get to use their current role before they get changed over? As for who scum will target, I'm not so sure they'll take a shot in the dark for an investigative role, though given that GP has already given away his role, he could very well be the target assuming he isn't able to use it in the twilight phase or something.
I want to check my logic first. Because I don't want to give away what I think I saw unless I actually saw it. The woman and kid leave for Florida today so I am tied up giving them attention until like 5pm so I will put something together by then or change my mind and put my vote elsewhere. Sorry that doesn't help but what I picked up on is behavioral and there is really nothing for you to address. Either you are town and the behavior is just not what I think it is or you are scum and it is and in either case it's not something like. "This action makes no sense" which would be something you could help with by explaining your logic.I hope that wasn't confusing.
That's fine. I'm knocking off the site for a bit after this to do some necessary work prep, so I can wait.
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@WyIted
I just thought of this. If somebody chose a role for confirmation. They can use their role NP1 and then on NP2 I can switch it to something. Ore useful.
This does make some sense, though given that you could be a target for the NK NP1 and that it would delay your role confirmation, I'm not sure the gamble is worth it.
Also I think I figured something out.VTL Whiteflame
Mind explaining this?
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"I wouldn't say I agree with him"
Reading back through this and realizing I wasn't clear that the "him" referenced here is Austin, not Luna.
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@ILikePie5
VTL AustinI think we should lynch Austin for a couple of reasons. First, it can help prove GP’s role. Second, the fact that Austin has been so adamant that the fact his role is confirm’s him as town. Austin is experienced enough that he knows role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmation by any means. Third, I believe he scum slipped in this paragraph:“Pretty sure this hard confirms me as town, since it'd be atrocious from a balancing perspective to give scum a useless when town has seven non-negative utility PRs.”As Whiteflame mentioned Lunatic never mentioned that scum would get options in categories to scum, so how does he know that scum would be “given” a useless [role].
I'm not clear on the sus here.
The first point is true of basically anyone who is town, since GP's role will confirm them regardless of their prior role. I also don't really like that you started with that, since the implication is that Austin is a mislynch. I know you used "can" in that sentence, but it's still weird to state this if you strongly believe he's scum, since the flip necessarily would make GP's role useless for this DP.
The second point is really where you're sussing him and I guess I'm getting it a little more based the info you say you've received from Luna. If you're right that scum have been given roles specific to the two Categories town doesn't have in their ranks, then you're correct that no amount of role confirmation suggests confirmation of their affiliation. I agree it doesn't "hard confirm" him regardless (and I think that was jumping the gun a bit), but he's also not the first person to suggest that scum might have access to roles in the two Categories that aren't in town. There is some presumption in that line that suggests that scum could have received a role from those Categories, which seems to be the stronger basis for your sus, but I read this as making a case for why it couldn't be because it would throw off the balance of the game. That's not to mention that this post is from early in the DP, well before there was any significant discussion of what roles scum could or could not have based on what we know from the OP and the signup thread. Maybe he's implying that he has inside information about what roles scum have access to and if I squint at it hard enough I can see your position, but that's not how I'm reading it.
Now the second part to this is my role that I need to put today anyways in case I die. My category is Passive and my role is Informed. Per this role, I was given important information relating to scum that no one else knows (besides scum themselves).Here is the info:Mafia started with two roles each. The first to prove the category they know to be fake one to help prove their fake category, and one every night role from a special selection of roles exclusive to mafia. Even though scum have a total of 4 roles, they can use one role per NP aside from the NK.
So we have our first unconfirmable role claim. That doesn't automatically make you sus, but I'm going to point it out because this is a marked shift from the claims made so far. It's also a claim I'm unfamiliar with, though I also hadn't heard of a Role Changer. I will, however, note that that particular role seems very tailored to this setup, while your role seems more generalized, so it comes off to me as pretty distinct from the rest of the existing claims and from my own role.
I looked up the role as well. This is an abnormally large amount of information for an Informed player to receive. It's listed as usually getting something like the identity of another townie or the existence of a particular PR. It's weird as well that it partially contradicts the information I spelled out from the sign-up thread and OP, specifically giving you information that scum have access to a role that belongs to their fake Category. If we take this at face value, that means scum have access to two full claims that are, essentially, just real. That's more support for the scum team than I think I've ever seen in a game, but given that this is a unique game, I suppose it's possible. This essentially means that the only ways to determine that scum isn't what they say they are is to find behavioral tells (which is a lot harder to do when they're literally just telling the truth about what they can/cannot do) or find evidence that they used another role/committed the NK. That's possible as well, and given the explicit lack of a TP in this game as well as the issues with balancing it that come from people selecting their own roles, it might just be that Luna wants to force town into a more difficult position using this setup.
Still, I'm struggling to buy this. Is this a rephrasing of what he sent you? I'm assuming it's not just c/p'd, so I'll function under that assumption, but the way it's written just seems... off. This all seems needlessly clunky, particularly: "The first to prove the category they know to be fake one to help prove their fake category". Why not just say "Scum receive a role from the two remaining categories"? Why spell out that the purpose is to "prove their fake category"? For that matter, why were you provided the extra information that the other role they received is an "every night role"?
Now being me, I picked Luna’s brain a lot and I got some other stuff out of him because the info was confusing. If scum have a passive role (ie Hammerer from one of the categories) they can still use an active role at night. Functionally, scum can use two active actions at night + NK assuming their “town role” is passive. If their “town role” is active, they have to waive a mafia action at night in place of the the active “town role.”
I'm also struggling with some of this follow-up. The way you phrased it above was that they have access to four roles, but can only use one per NP, suggesting that scum have very strong PRs and that they effectively have a pool to select one from and use per night. Now you say that they have four roles and can use two per night, one for each player, so long as they're active roles. The latter does make more sense, but that makes your phrasing on the PM you say you received feel even more off.
Now how does this affect Austin. He’s the only one that came out saying he’s confirmed town just because he has a negative utility role that is “confirmable.” He also cited balance which we know is wonky this game, but read the paragraph he said before. He knows that scum were given roles from the two fake categories. No one here besides scum and me know that mafia were given functional town roles in the two fake categories. The paragraph shows Austin being one of them. Not to mention his confidence about role confirmation equaling affiliation confirmation. It’s 100% a scum slip, which is why I wanted everyone to comment and genuinely slip before I outted my role.
I've already discussed some of this, but I'll address a couple of distinct points. Yes, we know balance is wonky in this game. As Luna stated in the OP, though, the reason for that is pretty explicit: "the game balance was entirely determined by player choice". He's clearly concerned about how the balance will play out given what we chose, not so much based on how he set it up. I wouldn't say I agree with him that scum wouldn't be given a negative utility role, particularly Hammerer, though it skirts the line on what I'd even call a negative utility role in the hands of scum. That's a separate issue, but I feel it's worth mentioning.
Apart from that, I just don't buy this scum slip. First off, I don't think his confidence on role confirmation equaling affiliation confirmation is a scum slip. It's more than I'd be willing to say on the subject, but I already expressed my view that strong role confirmations could at least be close to an affiliation confirmation. Second, I don't think that sentence demonstrates that he "knows that scum were given roles from the two fake categories." Again, I think he's spelling out a balancing issue he would perceive specifically if they received a role in the Negative Utility category.
I'm going to give this some more thought, but in general, I'm not liking this post.
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@Casey_Risk
I feel you, though like you said, I’m going to work work with what I have. It’s important that we take care in determining what suffices as role confirmation, though. There is clearly still room to bluff and there might be significant overlap between certain scum role choices and their chosen Category claims.
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@Casey_Risk
I'm really not sure where WF is going with post #73. Claiming a category that isn't yours is a good way to get instantly CC'ed which is suicidal, so I think it's pretty clear that scum are just going to claim whatever their real category is whenever they claim. I guess scum could claim their partner's category, but then if one of them dies... see Pie's Recycled Roles. Put simply, I don't place any importance on whether a role is verifiable or not, unless that role is exceedingly unlikely to be scum, like GP's role.
So, a few things to note in order to explain my thinking.
First, the OP says this:
7 of the following 9 Role Categories belong to the town. Mafia will have role options to pick from not on this list however.
We know there are two role categories that are not included among town roles. We know from the sign-up page that this is true:
How this will work, is this will be an open set up game, with a list of 9 role Category types IE (Investigative, Protective, Manipulation, Preventative" Etc. I will be lying about two of those role categories being in the game, only mafia will know which two categories I am lying about, the other 7 will be truthful.
So, scum will have two choices: they can either claim a role that fits one of the two Categories that they know town doesn’t have, or they can claim a Category that they know a townie will have. Like you said, they’ll get CC’d if they do the latter, so they’ll do the former.
The issue there is that Luna said there are two Categories he’s lying about. He didn’t say scum will have access to roles in those Categories, only that they have role options “not on this list”, which means their actual roles are likely either from one of those 7 Categories town has in its repertoire, or from a Category outside the 9.
So, it follows then that they will have to claim a Category for which they will almost certainly not have an associated role. They could still “confirm” themselves using a different role and making it look like they’re something else, but my point still stands that the setup shouldn’t allow for scum to fully confirm a role from their fake-claimed Category. Maybe I’m just misinterpreting something and Luna has given scum not just two fake Categories to claim but actual roles that slot into those Categories neatly. However, that’s not how I’m reading the above quotes.
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@AustinL0926
I'm going to take a look through these reads a bit later, want to see if I agree with your read on Vader in particular. Given that he's softclaimed a role that should be very specific to a Category, I'm hesitant to push for his role claim, but I understand if there's sufficient reason to scumread him behaviorally. Haven't given his posts a close enough read to evaluate that.
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@WyIted
Ah, I misunderstood that. Then... yeah, it was pretty risky to claim it. I still slightly townread the choice, but it puts you in the crosshairs for obvious reasons.
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Time to start keeping a running list of claims.
WyIted: Role Changer - Category: Manipulative
Austin: Hammerer - Category: Negative Utility
GP: Reviver - Category: Protective
Yes, I looked up GP's role and settled on it being called "Reviver" from what I've seen. On Mafiascum, it's categorized as "Protective" rather than "Voting," the latter of which was my initial read of it and, in retrospect, is blatantly wrong. A note that this role usually only exists in "no reveal" games to avoid creating confirmed innocent players and, if a game does have reveals like ours (All lynches will flip immediately after death), can result in the following:
If a game is not No Reveal but includes revival in some form, it is more likely that the revived player has secretly received a non-Town Role PM in the interim than that they are the same role as before.
GP said they return "as an ordinary vanilla townie," but there may be unknown effects on the player resulting from their revival. Admittedly, I don't have any reason to believe this other than the contents of that page on Mafiascum and my own suspicions since this role is so powerful, but it's something to consider.
So that leaves 6 Categories that have not yet been claimed:
Investigative
Voting
Communication
Passive
Role Prevention
Killing
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@Savant
I could see WyIted's role being scum, in which case it's in his best interest to claim early and build trust. If WyIted's role is town, I'm not sure why he would reveal it so early.
I'm not giving it a full townread by any means, but I could at least see why he would claim it early as town for the same reason: to build trust. He demonstrates his role in the middle of the DP, it's confirmed, that role confirms him and locks him into his Category. Like I said to Vader above, I think there's some value to role verification especially if the role applies very specifically to a single Category, but there's room for these things to be faked and we should consider that.
By contrast, I can see a reason to keep it hidden in order to use it on your scum partner after several claims have come down. There's value in knowing what counters exist to your role after you've selected it, but there's even greater value in being able to switch things up and make things more advantageous to the scum team. I don't think WyIted would try and poll the field so to speak if he was scum, since he'd be given other clear potential targets and be asked why he didn't choose them. It's a riskier choice that builds less trust if he makes a selection that's not widely agreed upon.
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@Vader
My role is pretty easily verifiable as it's role.
No one has really discussed this yet, but role verification could matter a great deal more in this game than usual. Scum have incentive to fake claim a role that exists in one of the two Categories they know town won't occupy. So it stands to reason that they won't be able to completely verify whatever role they claim. The flip side of that, though, is two-fold:
- Scum might have roles that could straddle two or even three Categories and simply claim their actual role (or some similar variant) and a different Category, or
- Scum could present their role as something it is not, but make it seem as though they verified it
So "verifiable" matters a great deal, but the context of what is verified and how matters as well. None of this is to say you should claim, I'm just writing out my thoughts on how we should view verifiable claims.
I am a bit skeptical of Austin's choice. I am using a lot of role analysis and decision making and I feel like if Neg Util is down, I would do something that would likely put the town in the least amount of risk possible versus the Hammerer role.
I'd also like to know whether you're sussing him or not. I probably would have made the same decision in his shoes, but I understand why others might choose differently.
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@WyIted
Yeah, Luna mentioned trying to contact you on Discord about the game, so that tracks.
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@WyIted
Interesting. This is a Manipulation role, correct? If so, we’ve got Manipulation (which seems to focus more on active manipulation), Negative Utility and Voting claims so far.
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@WyIted
I’ll consider it. That is an instantly verifiable role, so I guess I understand outing it at this stage. Be careful who you pick, wouldn’t want scum to have their role shifted based on the roles they now know.
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@Vader
Good to see you back at it too!
Only better stuff to come from Dandadan, love the manga. Only problem with the show is that it ended S1 in a weird spot.
Grey's Dp1 claim is his meta unfortunately and probably should've been claimed. Austin was in the right for claiming neg utility.
Yeah, GP’s choice to claim was a little frustrating. Assuming we lynch scum, he’s a target for the NK without being able to use his role, so it would have been best to keep it under wraps. Agreed on Austin.
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@AustinL0926
I'm the Hammerer.I'm negative utility. I got the option of hammerer, hated, miller, and gravedigger. Hammerer was the only confirmable role, so I chose it.
I get the thinking here. If gravedigger works like I think it does, then it would have been a risky choice since you would have been automatically tracked to the NK target, and the lack of confirmation wouldn’t help.
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@WyIted
Does anyone else regret the role they chose and want to change it?
I kind of am now.
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A couple of other thoughts I missed out on giving yesterday… it was a long week…
I’m retracting my statement on passive roles likely being only town and modifying my statement on there likely being a scum manipulator role. I think there is either a scum passive or scum manipulator. Roles like Godfather, Ascetic and Ninja all have a foot in both categories, but the latter could include Framer/Tailor/Lawyer. I guess that’s why I was leaning towards a manipulator being on the scum side since it offers more options to counter a town investigator.
I am opposed to a massclaim. We have two full claims on the table, both of which can (and should) be confirmed by the end of the DP, and both of which are decidedly more likely to be town, and I’m sure we’ll get at least one more claim before the end of the DP. I like the idea of having the person claim all the other roles they rejected, though given that there is a whole suite of fake claims available to scum in this game (they literally have access to two whole categories worth of roles), I don’t know how helpful it will be.
We are going to have to base a lot of our reads on behavior at this stage.
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Catching up on the DP. Giving some thoughts on what I’ve read so far.
I think someone will have already mentioned at this point that there are only 7 of the 9 categories listed in this game. That means scum has access to two of them, so with a few exceptions, I don’t think we should be writing off any category as “town-only.” The killing role might be town-only since I can’t think of one scum would have. I’d also put the negative utility role in that category, maybe the passive. For the rest… not so much. There is almost certainly a town investigative role, but there are several investigative roles associated with scum that I can’t write off. If someone can inform me of a scum protective role because I’m not aware of one. I‘ll note that claiming a role in one of these categories doesn’t make the person a given to be town, especially since we know two category claims will be outright lies.
I can see how it would be possible for scum to have a JOAT that belongs solely to one of these categories. Since I believe there must be an Investigative role among the 7 on town, that implies that one scum player and one town player have manipulation roles to mess with their results. That might be part of the reason Luna’s a bit cagey about balance in the OP, since some manipulative roles will be either useful or useless depending on the investigator’s choice.
I buy GP’s claim. It’s quickly confirmable and is exceedingly unlikely to be scum.
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@ILikePie5
I was really surprised that neither Whiteflame nor Cerulean noticed the differences in roles. Scum claimed Motivator and Bulletproof, which are outliers in a weird Arsonist, Singer, VooDoo Lady, and Oracle.
Part of the problem was that ADOL was the last to claim. The Singer claim came off as someone trying to figure out a role that would fit with all the outlandish and niche ones that had been claimed so far. I figured there was likely to be at least one semi-standard role in the game just to throw us off and I settled on the Motivator. Didn’t help that ADOL came off as sus for a variety of other reasons.
Whiteflame, there was confusion about what you paraphrased that got you scumread by Luna. It’s semantics, but it can make a huge difference.
yeah, that was my error. Misread my justification a bit.
Generally speaking, the fact that Cerulean and I didn’t buy Mharman and Austin as a scum team definitely worked in their favor. I could see us having lynched Mharman or Austin if we’d just converged on them instead, but even then, I think ADOL was always doomed in the final DP. Well-played to both scum, you got us good.
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Lol, guess so. I'm just not able to shrug off my concerns about ADOL. Austin, Mharman and Cerulean, I wish (most of) you luck and good decision-making for the final DP. You know where I'm leaning.
VTL ADOL
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@Cerulean
I see you're online and I'm ready to make my decision. Are you good with ADOL or are you leaning elsewhere?
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I’ll be voting over lunch. Unless someone can give me a good reason to go another way, it’ll be ADOL.
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@Mharman
For the purposes of this DP, though, this is all besides the point. If you want this to be a heads up between you and Austin, I’m fine pushing that to next DP. It probably won’t be my decision since I’m very likely the NK in NP4, but I’ve made my opinion on the matter clear. If you’re good to lynching ADOL, so am I.
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@Mharman
That's why I said, most, not all. I'm aware there's some townies who would've gone for that. However, the decision is so ridiculous that I think there has to be scum on that wagon.
You said that there had to be both scum on the wagon. That’s where I disagree. I think scum had incentive to push for the lynch. I don’t think that achieving the lynch necessitated the participation of both scum. Excluding Earth, we know there were at least two townies on that lynch. Why is it such a stretch to believe there were three? Because the lynch didn’t make sense to you? What kind of reasoning is that?
Regardless, it doesn't change the fact that I had every incentive to be opportunistic in that lynch if I were scum, regardless of what townies did or didn't support it. Given the previous DP, there was a very real chance of another no-lynch, and I decided I was okay with it because I townread Wylted that hard. As mafia, I would have been incentivized to keep us in evens by lynching him.
I already said I can see WIFOM reasoning to stay off the lynch. Scum didn’t know my role at the time, so perceiving an opportunity to get me lynched DP3 if I waffled and didn’t commit to anything would have made sense. WyIted would have either been killed by NK or RB’d, so the risk to scum was negligible at best, not to mention a NL was almost inevitable at some point (we did it DP3) after the NL in DP1, so scum was always going to lose the opportunity to score another mislynch, it was just a matter of when.
So yes, you had the opportunity. You also had the benefit of using this to make the case that you are townie because you didn’t do it and put some distance between yourself and ADOL. So, no, I don’t buy that this somehow vindicates you.
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@Mharman
If I am scum I don't defend Wylted as hard as I did. He was an easy mislynch for someone in my position. I could've flipped on him when Lunatic was cleared, I could've let Lunatic "convince" me over the course of the DP, or I could've voted him at the end just to have a lynch. I didn't.Wylted was town and it was obvious, I still don't understand why yall wanted to lynch an-unCC'd cop who just cleared someone and made one of the dumbest possible decisions in targeting Lunatic if he was scum. Combine that with how he got mislynched for not SOPing miller last game, and to me it seemed completely natural that he would float the idea of claiming his role (and claim it after only one person asked) if he felt it even had the slightest amount of negative utility.Because of how obviously town Wylted was, Wylted's mislynch is the type of lynch that only happens if scum is hard pushing for it. I refuse to believe most townies alive would actually go for it if the scum team wasn't looking to convince them. A few might, but I really think most won't.
I don't really love this as a defense of yourself. As someone who was very much on the fence about this lynch even when I voted the effective hammer, there were clearly town players on that lynch. Hell, one of them led the lynch. The people who pushed hardest for it by far were Luna and Austin, and while the latter is up in the air, the former has already flipped town. If ADOL ends up flipping scum, as I think he will, he was by far one of the least involved in pushing for that lynch despite being on the wagon. Hell, everyone has Austin and I separated in their reads this DP, which means one of us was town and also involved in the lynch. So the notion that scum absolutely had to be "hard pushing for it" with both members on the lynch doesn't necessarily follow. There was clearly value in his lynch, but that doesn't mean scum necessarily would take the bait, especially since I clearly promised to make a decision in those waning minutes of the DP. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if scum saw me as a mislynch opportunity if I ended up not pulling the trigger.
So much as you are basically parroting WyIted's logic from the end of that DP, I'm still not sold on it. I believe at least one scum was on that lynch. I don't believe both necessarily were.
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@Cerulean
My eyes are starting to hurt staring at this website. I'm going to sleep and come back to this in the morning. Right now, I'm in a position of wanting to lynch ADOL, but I'm not quite ready to commit to that.
I think ADOL is the right choice, but there's no harm in waiting. I'm fine giving him a chance to respond to both what Austin and I have said. From where I'm sitting, while I can see how Austin might be his partner, I just don't think it's as likely as Mharman. I understand the uncertainty regarding Austin, but there's a lot more rubbing me the wrong way about Mharman.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
[whiteflame] There’s no priority from me aside from my statement that you come off as the clearer lynch.Well I'm not going to vote to lynch myself so there is no action to take on that. Just sit around and then lose.
That's not the point. You intentionally wrote that post to make it seem like Mharman was the preferred lynch for me, which he isn't, framing it as though that was the natural conclusion to take from Austin and my reads. Obviously, you would prefer we lynch anyone else, but since my argument wasn't "you should just vote yourself," this is a particularly strange response.
In that case, at this moment, I would side with Whiteflame and Cerulean for admittedly weak reasons. If you want to put a number to it, it would be like 51% chance Mharmen is scum because I think the role/theme assignment is weirder.
I'm trying to parse this. Walk me through it because I don't think I've seen you walk through the "role/theme assignment" justification for lynching Mharman. Your initial justification for VTLing him last game was "I've got nothing, but maybe this will convince Whiteflame we aren't a scum team," and your justification this DP up to this point has been focused on "distrust" between you, Austin and Mharman, which you claimed was the cause of you all collectively refusing to go after us (doubly weird since Mharman has been more than willing to sus us) with the explicit aim of ensuring that we "can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen". So yes, I'd like to know where your sus comes from. Hell, it's notable that you haven't come up with a reason to sus Austin at all beyond PoE.
The only justification I've seen for deciding not to sus Cerulean and I that I can find in any of your posts is "It would be a long con indeed if they were scum", which parrots my argument. Is that what you meant by "admittedly weak reasons"?
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@ADreamOfLiberty
So here is my attack: Let's lynch Mharmen. You can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen if I lynch Mharmen.
Assuming we do this and Austin’s on the lynch, would the same logic apply to him? Could he not possibly have been on a team with Mharman?
The reason this logic doesn’t work is because bussing exists. Your willingness to be on a lynch of someone who ends up flipping scum doesn’t make you town, it just means you may have been willing to throw your scum buddy under the bus to make yourself look less scummy. It’s a classic tactic in Mafia.
And no, I’m not following why Mharman is the priority lynch or why Austin is necessarily secondary. You pointed out that Austin is sussing both you and Mharman, but when you pointed to me, you conveniently left out that I’m sussing the two of you as well. There’s no priority from me aside from my statement that you come off as the clearer lynch.
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