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@Cerulean
I gave a set of reads, said I wasn’t comfortable lynching anyone last DP, and said straight up I was good with a no lynch. With those 6 hours remaining in the DP, none of that changed. The only things that shifted were that WyIted suggested a willingness to no lynch, which led me to believe there might be an appetite for it, and your post saying that you’d prefer a lynch on you to a no lynch, which led to my decision to post a vote on you.
If you want to sus me for not having clear direction with my reads or just not acting in a way that took attention off of you, then fine. I don’t claim that I was doing well just by being indecisive in DP1, but it’s hardly a first for me as town or as scum.
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Alright, we haven't had an updated post with all the claims given so far, so here it is:
Character Role NP1
WyIted Galbatorix Compulsive Vanillaizer/Cop Vanillaized Luna/Cop Inno
Earth Roran Hammerer N/A
Cerulean Elva Oracle (weak) N/A
Luna Eragon Arsonist Primed WyIted
Dead
Casey Murtagh Prideful Townie
Everyone else is unclaimed. I really don't like the decision to target Luna, but I can at least see why WyIted was sussing Luna, even if I don't agree with his basis for doing so (which seems to mainly have been because he'd been sussed over claiming a villain). The negative utility Cop visit rubs me the wrong way, but it's also the only claimed investigative role beyond Cerulean's Oracle, and a pretty ballsy one at that given that there are still four people who haven't claimed anything (I'll say that I do not have an investigative role). His role would make the game very swingy if he could somehow Vanillaize scum, and the Cop result seems like a way to address that while still giving him some utility against scum.
I do appreciate ADOL's stepping up this DP, it's good to see both that he's active and engaging well with the given information.
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Well, someone has to make the call. I don’t like it, and by now I’m pretty certain I know the flip, but even Cerulean’s arguing that it’s better than a NL and I’m not lynching Luna or Wylted.
VTL Cerulean
Leave this up to Wylted. I’m fine with the NL.
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@Lunatic
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@WyIted
Well, we gotta make this call. Going to be on intermittently from here.
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Like I said, I’ll trigger the hammer if no one else does beforehand. If that’s where we’re leaning (no one else beyond WyIted has mentioned a NL and he’s got his vote back up), then I’ll VTL in 10 minutes to prevent it from getting too close.
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@WyIted
I’m preparing dinner so I’m trying to keep track of what’s happening, but I’m probably only going to be able to make a decision in the last 15 minutes at this rate.
Gut says no lynch, but I suspect we’ll encounter a lot of the same issues next DP.
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@Cerulean
How about the fact that three of you consecutively expressed concerns about chopping me? At least give me some time to reread and write a legacy.
I wouldn't have posted as I did if I wasn't giving you and others time to make a case/add whatever you wished.
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I’m going to be around until the end of the DP. I’ve got my misgivings about the lynch on Cerulean, in part because I just don’t buy that he’d be this coy about his role if he was scum, especially with foreknowledge about two roles from questions to Pie. That being said, he’s the only feasible lynch on the table.
I can understand why Cerulean has his vote on Luna. But it’s not enough that he was baffled by WyIted’s claim or was considering a basic theme split. I don’t think the reasoning is substantive enough that we should bypass a claim and just lynch him, and given the short timeframe, we cant get through that discussion now.
Unless someone can give me a good reason not to do so, I’ll trigger the auto-hammer before the DP ends. Right now, the only alternative I’m really considering is a no lynch, but I doubt many people would support that.
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@AustinL0926
Since he's been at L - 1, Cerulean has posted 4 times:-Posted a wall of self-defense-Explained why he isn't claiming-Talked about mechanics/characters twiceIt lacks the proactivity I would expect from a town Cerulean, at the very least I don't want to let him skate by throughout the day without so much as a claim. Barring that, I don't really scumread anyone else either.
I think this is fair analysis, though I'll point out that I would also expect scum Cerulean to be more proactive than this. I can't recall a time when he was on the chopping block as scum where he just let it happen, even when his fake claim wasn't great and eventually got him lynched.
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@Casey_Risk
I actually completely forgot he was even in this game. 💀
*sigh* the only reason I remembered was that I looked at the count of players and realized I was one short with behavioral information.
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I agree, we need to make a call and we're running out of time (there are just under 7 hours left, by my estimation). We have three claims on the table:
WyIted: Galbatorix - Compulsive Vanillaizer
Earth: Roran - Hammerer
Cerulean: Elva - weak investigative role
I do not wish to seek more information this DP, so I think we just have to make a call on this one. Both the Hammerer and Vanillaizer roles are confirmable, but note that neither of them are necessarily alignment-indicative. I wouldn't put it past Pie to have included a confirmable role for scum, though at least for now, I have little reason to suspect either of them and I'm not supporting either lynch.
That leave Cerulean's claim, which is a bit sus as was his decision to push for information through speculation on scum roles. It's also not in his meta to do this kind of thing as scum, though, and we've seen Cerulean's scum meta a couple of times now. He's kind of the default choice at this point, and personally I am averse to picking the default just because, but we don't have a lot of info outside of these three beyond some behavioral analysis, so I'll do what I can with that.
ADOL is as null as it gets given his absence. I hope he's getting replaced for next DP, but there's no basis for seeing him either way without a single post.
Luna is doing some pretty good analysis of the claims so far and I'm liking his responses for the most part. The only caveat to that is the lack of response on Cerulean's claim. He sussed him a bit for being a minor character and mentioned wanting to get Cerulean's claim to see if it would be a more major character than Cerulean believed, but since Cerulean claimed, Luna hasn't mentioned it once, instead shifting the focus to WyIted. I get that this was an effort to get WyIted's full claim, but I don't know why his interest in Cerulean suddenly dropped off. I'm leaning town on Luna, but it's not as strong of a lean as it was.
Casey's a stronger town lean. I like their analysis for the most part, particularly pointing back to their own Ace Attorney game and how it was designed as a basis for analyzing which characters could/should be in this game, and pointing out that Cerulean wasn't town in the Mayday Mafia game when they were already sussing Cerulean comes off as a genuine effort to kick the tires on their own suppositions. I could see a world in which there were on a team with Cerulean and so these efforts to derail a lynch would benefit them, but I don't buy that just yet.
Austin's also a decent town lean for me. His hinting at some knowledge on Earth's claim that slots him into town doesn't come off as something Austin would do as scum, though given that Earth is largely townread at this point, it's not the strongest indicator. I've seen him kick the tires more on Cerulean's idea of the mechanics of this game for scum than pretty much anyone, and while it's possible he's just playing a role here to make the suggestion look legitimate, it comes off as genuine.
That leaves Mharman, who I'm null on. I can see his points on Cerulean and I can't see these two as a likely scum team together. I think the argument he's making makes sense when it comes to what Cerulean could be doing, I just don't love that his position isn't really taking Cerulean's normal behavior as scum into account. Cerulean's decision to fish for information could be scummy, but it's also out of character for scum Cerulean. He also posted a very similar argument to the one Austin originally proposed about the why of it being scummy, and has since focused his attention there. The point's decent enough and it's a valid criticism of his methods this game, though I don't like that he's tunnelling based chiefly on that. The lack of posting since Cerulean partially claimed makes it harder to read him atm.
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@Cerulean
My character is Elva. My role is a weak investigative ability that I will not elaborate further on today.
I can't speak to the likelihood of this character being in the game, though I'd like to get some insight from Luna on that front. It seems as though she has some persistence in the story, despite her being relatively minor. I think I'd like more info on the investigative role as well, and I don't see much benefit to withholding at this point.
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@ILikePie5
Due to New Years and a typo, I will grant a 24 hour extension. DP ends January 2nd at 6:30pm CST
I appreciate the extension.
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@Mharman
I see your point, it's not the most straightforward way to utilize this. I'm fine with getting his claim for other reasons, but I'll consider this more after we get a response from him.
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@Mharman
My point was and remains that I don't think this was a clearly negative utility choice on his part for town. I don't think it necessarily gives away roles town doesn't have, that depends on how straightforward everyone is in their speculation and in what they omit. Speculating on existing roles and leaving out that one of those roles is your own is one way to change up that dynamic: if scum believe a role is available because it's mentioned in that speculation and choose to claim it, then a CC is possible as a result. Maybe I'm wrong to believe that some people might do that. Maybe it wouldn't lead to a CC if they did.
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@Lunatic
@Cerulean
I'm still fine with getting at least a character claim out of Cerulean at this stage, if only to give Luna an opportunity to evaluate whether it makes sense to have it in this game or not. Given that Earth is apparently going to auto-hammer at L-1, I'm going to avoid putting more pressure on Cerulean at this stage and see how he responds to the existing pressure. If more is needed, I'll add my vote, but we're running shorter on time than anticipated.
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@Mharman
Where are you getting the idea of some plan like this from? To me, it just looks like Cerulean was fishing for role info, then went for some lesser info once that was rejected.
I'm pointing out that what he was doing doesn't necessarily feed info to scum, at least not in as straightforward a manner as you're saying. It would not be the first time someone had lied about their role in an attempt to get a CC on scum. Hell, I did that last game. The difference here is the focus on speculation about what roles could be in the game, but I don't think that dramatically changes things. I can see your perspective on what Cerulean could be doing here, but I also don't think he'd be this blatant about seeking out role info as scum. He tends to stay far more effectively under the radar.
I also don’t understand the weird mechanics speculation- I would be shocked if any of he’s going on about is in this game. It feels completely useless to me.
It's an odd mechanic to mention, even though I think it's still somewhat plausible. As you say, though, it's rather useless. I don't know how we could utilize this information even if it ends up being true.
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@ILikePie5
Approximately 21 hours remaining
Was the OP mistaken, then? It says the DP ends Sunday, January 5th. Figured that was a very long DP.
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Anyway, I'm heading off for the night. Happy new year everyone!
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@WyIted
Alright, that makes more sense than the alternative given the lack of a specified RB in your PM.
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@WyIted
Also.hopefully we can get agreement that anyone vanillaized, admits to it on their very first post the next dp.
Should hope that’s a given.
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@WyIted
It works immediately. I have not asked if it resolves before their night action yet, but I assume bothe actions resolve simultaneously
Worth checking on that. If it doesn’t say that it effectively RB’s your target, then their night action probably goes through and they’re Vanillaized at the end of the night phase.
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@Lunatic
I know its WIFOM, but I would do that as scum too if I was going into a theme I wasn't all too familiar with and didn't want to risk getting CC'ed by anyone.
Fair enough. I tend to think that games like this where scum can ask about two characters' presence in the game are more likely to feature scum taking what look like bigger risks with their claims, if only because they have a greater opportunity to do so at low risk. That's WIFOM as well, but I can see how they might reach your conclusion as well.
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@WyIted
Fuck it. I think Earth claiming while normally dumb is smart here. I have to visit one person a night and who I visit gets vanillaized so I can just vanillaized Earth and he is no longer a liability assuming he is honest
So you're a compulsive Vanillaizer? Does it effectively Vanillize them immediately or is the effect delayed? I've seen a couple of variants that handle that differently.
This does make sense of your post claiming a negative utility role. I thought you were hinting at a negative utility component, but it looks like it's more of an issue of targeting correctly rather than some portion of it being harmful to town.
Also, I don't see how Earth claiming was dumb. He auto-lynches a target put at L-1. That's pretty important in case we end up pushing someone for a claim. I get that you see it as more beneficial to claim now that you have a target to Vanillaize that is negative utility to town, but it was always the right move.
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@Lunatic
Fair though I mostly see the use of this list being to identify characters that are too "sidey" as being more likely suspect claims. There are only 9 players and there are at least that many main or big characters, probably a few I left out too. Characters not on that list will be a big red flag for me, assuming its just not a big one I forgot about.
It makes sense to list them as you have, and I agree with your basic reasoning here. While I would agree that there's at least a small red flag inherent to claiming a minor character (as Cerulean has softclaimed), I'd at least consider two factors that might result in a minor character being included. One, that Pie might have wanted a certain role in the game and had no good options for it among major characters. Given how tight the association is between characters and roles based on my own PM and what others have said of theirs, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if there was one minor character meant to fill a specific role. Two, Pie's likely to throw a curveball into the mix to keep things interesting, and having a minor character among town players would be right up his alley. That's a bit of modpsych and I'm not going to lean heavily on that view, but Cerulean's decision to out this in the same post where he was asking if anyone was among the major characters gives me a bit of a behavioral counter to said red flag.
I read this book series probably three or four times in my youth, but i'll admit it has been at least 10-15 years since I have read it so I am very foggy on the details. Paolini was my favorite author when I was like 16.
Appreciate any and all insights all the same.
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@Casey_Risk
As we've already discussed, however, it probably isn't in the game, so his idea about speculating on possible scum roles feels like it could be a distraction. Personally, I'm a bit ambivalent about Cerulean right now. His idea of scum having limited information might be genuine, sure, but he's good enough to fake it.
Fair. I'm null on him for similar reasons, as I mentioned. I can see him doing this as a starting point for sussing other players, but it's an odd direction to go with it.
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@Mharman
@AustinL0926
Because pretty much any discussion of mechanics is inevitably going to give mafia information that I don't think we should give. For example, if I say "[X] means that [A, B, or C] might be in the game for mafia", I'm basically spewing myself as not having any of A, B, or C as my role.
You proposed the idea in Post #7 before any of that was said. The reason I don’t like the idea is because mafia can tell who has what roles based on what they speculate mafia might have.
I see where you're both coming from on this front, though I'll note this is not necessarily the case. It would not be the first time I've seen some "speculate" on the existence of a set of roles that included their actual role in an attempt to deceive mafia, and even if none of them are their roles, town might still have a player with one or more of those roles that wouldn't out it immediately because there is speculation about it. There's some risk involved in discussing specific roles, but I don't think it's necessarily that straightforward for scum to use that information.
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@AustinL0926
Not sure what to make of Cerulean's speculation of scum potentially not having full info. It's an interesting idea and I'd be inclined to townread the depth of thought - it's a pretty complex connection to check a potential mafia character, check the character's info, and then extrapolate that to a complex mechanic. The thing that makes me hesitate is that it could be potentially a result of Cerulean actually being mafia and knowing about this mechanic, i.e. having more information than he should. I don't recall ever seeing this mechanic on DART, nor elsewhere. Cerulean, have you seen this mechanic before? What made you consider it in the first place?
Since I was buying into this a bit, I'll expand on my own thought process as well.
Don't ask me to find it (it's been a while), but I recall a game in which I was the Lone Wolf, which fits what Cerulean describes: a scum player who is not in scum chat and who both does not know who the other scum are (the remainder of scum don't know who they are, either). It's certainly not common, and I don't know what brought it to Cerulean's mind, but I can at least understand why he'd consider it based on that character description.
I don't really buy the idea that Cerulean would give away this mechanic openly if it is in this game and he's scum, since he'd be drawing attention to subtle efforts to communicate between elements of the scum team. I could see this being an effort to draw attention away from other plays the scum team is making and sus players for perceived subtle cues in their posts, so at least for the time being, Cerulean's null to me.
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@WyIted
I don't have a good reason to claim at all just wanted to see if we can get some discussion.
Well, I’m not going to push you based on this response. If you don’t think it’s SOP, then there is no real direction I can think to give you. Also just tired, so I’ll revisit this tomorrow.
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@WyIted
My role has a negative utility we might want to discuss a bit so I can be directed.
Alright, would you consider it an SOP claim? Saying it's negative utility and saying that you want to "be directed" gives me a general idea of what's going on, but it doesn't tell me whether you have a strong reason to claim now. If not, then I don't know what kind of direction you're looking for.
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@Mharman
I like Whiteflame’s idea of asking if everyone has an important character. Mine is on the wiki list
That was Cerulean’s idea, not mine.
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@Casey_Risk
That happened in Bo Burnham mafia, only a few games ago. Though I don't think you were part of that one.
Yeah… not my best moment.
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@WyIted
Know nothing of the series. Thought about getting some audiobooks to listen to while at work before it started but decided not to.
Alright then, welcome to the game.
Unvote
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@Casey_Risk
@Cerulean
Actually, on second thought, considering this line from the OP:As always, Mafia will be given the opportunity to ask if any two roles and if any two characters are in the game at any point in time, to which I will truthfully answer....I highly doubt that there's no scum chat.
Point taken. There might be something going on, but giving some of scum access to this information and not others seems a bit weird.
a 7-2-1 isn't out of the questionWe only have 9.
My math is bad today. I meant 6-2-1.
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@Cerulean
My character and role are also very closed tied together.
Figured as much based on your earlier post. There wouldn't be much point in speculating about roles otherwise.
It might be worthwhile to say if our characters are on the "Important Characters" list here. I ask specifically because mine isn't.
Mine is on that list.
Regarding the Secret Hitler similarity. I don't believe in this as much as I did last night, but I noticed this line from the Inheriwiki page about Durza, who seems like a potential Mafia-aligned character:This has me wondering if we might have a gimmick at play which could involve evils not having full information- like lacking a factional chat or not mutually knowing each other's identities immediately.Just want to throw that out there. We might want to keep an eye out for codes, if this is a realistic possibility.
Interesting theory. It could be a Lone Wolf situation, or possibly a TP (a 7-2-1 isn't out of the question). This isn't something I would have thought about, and while it may not lead anywhere, it's worth considering at least.
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@Lunatic
I can put a character list together and say what I think pie would most likely put in the game, make a list for antagonists as well.
A list might be helpful, if only to give us some direction (I can base it off of the various "main character" lists I can find, though I'd probably have some omissions and inclusions that you wouldn't), but I think we should be careful about how much stock we put into it. I know I've been burned before by expectations of who should be in a given game based on their status in a given piece of media. Hell, I've used those expectations to my advantage as scum before.
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@Casey_Risk
@Cerulean
It would definitely be worthwhile to see if we can at least speculate on what Mafia might have access to, role-wise.I'd like to go back to this statement. I find it a bit odd - none of us should have any idea what roles exist in the game aside from our own individual roles, except for the mafia. How are we meant to speculate in a meaningful and productive way without just having people out their roles? Pretty much anything is on the table at this point.
This does feel like it would send us down a rabbit hole. Maybe the idea here is that we could use some knowledge of the books to inform what roles could be present for certain characters, but even then, as you point out in your next post, we can only speculate about whether those characters are town or scum.
That being said, I do think there's some value to considering which roles associate closely with which characters. My association between character and role is pretty tight.
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@WyIted
Alright, I wasn't really up for much last night, but I'll try to be more involved today. To start, let's stimulate some more engagement and get some absent players in here.
VTL WyIted
How have the holidays been for you? Also, what do you know of this series? I haven't even seen Eragon, that 2007 movie, so I barely have any familiarity with the series.
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@Cerulean
Has anyone here played Secret Hitler before? I promise this is relevant. I'll elaborate later.
I'm familiar with the basic concept. Also, noted that you're mentioning this in the middle of Hanukkah. Well played.
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Still at a Hanukkah party, but wanted to post something.
I am not familiar with these books at all, but I’ll give myself a crash course as we go.
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@WyIted
Yeah… don’t think Elaine has sex with a 13-year-old, though Seinfeld had its share of weird stuff happen.
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@WyIted
Figured you were just having fun. Sounds like your boss had it rough. Funny enough, what’s keeping me busy this time of year has nothing to do with either Christmas or Hanukkah - got my nephew’s bar mitzvah to attend.
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@WyIted
Yep, sounds like me alright. Nailed it.
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Might be best just to start this after Christmas then. I’ll be fully available by then.
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@Lunatic
If it’s going to be me, then I’ll be very inconsistent between the 19th and the 23rd, just saying that now.
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@ILikePie5
Escherichia coli does rock. Been a far bigger part of my work than any other organism.
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