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@Casey_Risk
Did we divide by zero by lynching the mod? I must know.
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@Mharman
Clearly, you are blessed with foresight. Or, you know, just sight and fast reaction speeds.
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@Lunatic
Finally got my role PM. I am mafia, wylted is my partner. Lets lynch us rq and move on to the next one.
But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would would claim to be scum or the one who would accuse another? Now, a clever man would claim to be scum, because he would know that only a great fool would accuse another. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not lynch you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not lynch myself.
It's all coming together...
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@Owen_T
I think Mharman is taking inspiration from this mafia setupIt's actually quite clever. Despite this being a clown game, the town still strategy involved. Thoughts?
We're no strangers to this setup. You know the rules, and so do I.
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@Mharman
@Casey_Risk
Casey has been given a bulletproof vest.
Truly, it is a dastardly move for scum to give their partner a bulletproof vest so publicly. All the day vigs are useless to us now. Casey, you're on notice.
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@Mharman
So you knew all along that GP was scum, eh? He did refuse to claim, so that tracks.
Never heard of a Fire Bolt. Are you speaking of the Water Bolt? It's useless by now.
I am the bolt, so my being useless tracks as well.
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@ILikePie5
VTL Mharman
Just like a mod to be solo scum in his own game. It is bastard after all… and he has all the PMs… so he’s got the scum PMs too…
Game solved.
VTL Mharman
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@Casey_Risk
I have no idea, I'm just rolling with it.
Might as well roll. Figure if I throw enough dice, I’ll get to take an action, so I’ll roll with you.
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@Mharman
THE AIR IS GETTING COLDER AROUND YOU.
I cast fire bolt.
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@iamanabanana
Hope you can relate to the above. Bananas and banana slugs are family, right?
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Also, guess we’re going full bastard on this one without a PM. Guess both town and scum will just have to guess who they are. I identify as a banana slug, just FYI.
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@Owen_T
Is this game actually happening or have I lost my mind to another fever dream? I need someone to tell me what’s going on…
VTL Owen
You’re it.
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@Mharman
Might as well. Once more unto the breach.
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Well, not much to say tbh. Like Earth said, pretty OP scum on this, but I was pretty surprised to be the first NK. I guess that was mainly because I was being townread by most people at that point, just a shame I never got to give my results (even without the result on Barney's claim, I would've hard sussed him for the Dream God claim with Mharman's flip, and I also received confirmation that Casey's role was accurate). Oh well, nice try guys.
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Anyway, shutting this down. More discussion in the endgame.
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@Cerulean
Unsurprising. Pie/Barney?
Yeah. Kinda shocked Barney survived with that claim.
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Yep. Frustrating way to end it, but thems the breaks. GG scum.
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Anyway, I'm not staying on late tonight. We can make this decision early tomorrow, but frankly, I'm not seeing a better option than Mharman at this point. Seems like everyone else that comes up is due largely to a lack of activity.
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@Cerulean
This is a good shout. I've been rolling around an idea in my mind of at least one, possibly both scum, between WF and Lunatic. They both sort of jumped onto Mharman for the push on me.VTL WFI'm going to double-check, but it feels like WF has been... less, this game? Maybe it's IRL business causing issues, but it seems like he's been more of a background voice so far.I wasn't much paying attention to the last game, so if anyone wants to chip in on whether he's resembling that, let me know.
Would've been nice to tag me on this.
If you want to scumread me for having less activity than my normal, that's fine. I could give you all the reasons I've been busy and it won't really matter. I've given what time I have to the game so far, up to you whether that's enough.
As for my decision to hop on the wagon, I gave a pretty substantial explanation for why I put my vote on him. If you think I'm just doing it because of the push on you, feel free to read through it and give me your thoughts.
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@Mharman
I did not, at any point, suggest a wild bus was happening. I refuted a point about one that Lunatic made to Pie.
I apologize, as I believe I mixed up your posts in the process of re-reading this DP. Consider that portion of my reasoning null.
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@ILikePie5
What were your reasons for voting Mharman (before he claimed)
I thought I was pretty clear in the post where I did it, as well as this one talking about his pressure on Cerulean.
That weak reasoning on Cerulean was the beginning of it, but his defense of it stood out to me as curious, with him saying that he would never behave this way as scum. I didn't love that he seemed to be dictating to us what his scum behavior would look like, especially since tunneling on a player or suggesting wild busses would not be new for scum. He was much more defensive than I thought was warranted based on limited sussing from Luna, especially since he hadn't had a vote on him up to that point. The shift to Barney near the end of that night set me on edge as well, it felt like an attempt to put pressure on an inactive player to defray pressure from himself rather than respond to Casey, who had cast a vote on him without response before this. Also, given how defensive he was, I wanted to see how he'd respond to new pressure. Suffice it to say his full claim was not the response I expected.
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@Mharman
I haven't seen any mod give fake character claim only at any point. I guess there's a first time for everything. Keep in mind how stupid it would be for me to claim what I've claimed as a PR if I'm scum. As I've explained to Lunatic, you basically have to conclude my claim is from Earth, at which point that's bastard, at which point its simpler to say Earth is trying something new here.
It certainly would not be a first for me. I've seen plenty of mods give scum partial fake claims rather than give them full claims.
I agree, your claim is ballsy if you're scum. I wouldn't call it stupid, necessarily. I've played games with scum partners who have made similar calls before and been rewarded for taking the risk. Suffice it to say that, while I wouldn't personally make this decision, you would hardly be the first person to do so as scum with limited information.
Anyway, any other people you are sussing, other than me?
I would have said it was WyIted not too long ago, but I'm wavering more on him atm. He still might be closest among my null reads to being scummy. I have too little information on Barney. I see that Pie's catching up as well, so maybe I'll have a stronger opinion one way or another on him by the time he does.
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Ugh, accidental post. Finishing here:
I don’t love how he keeps characterizing the existence of a fake claim for scum. His assumption has been and remains that scum got a fake full claim. I haven’t seen confirmation of that anywhere, and his whole case about how he wouldn’t have claimed this if he had a fake claim available or how it throws sus at Casey stops making sense if scum only have a fake character claim available to them.
I am also willing to consider other targets, but I haven’t seen a convincing case made against anyone else.
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I’m barely keeping up with the DP right now, so my thoughts are going to be limited.
Right now, I still think Mharman is pretty sus. Setting aside his claim, it’s timing and his early behavior, I don’t love
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@Barney
Ugh, I feel for you dude. Sounds like a rough day.
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Anyway, I don’t have time to interrogate this right now and I’d like to take it before pursuing anything more. I don’t like the claim, but I’m going to
Unvote
And come back to this when I get a chance to give this my full attention.
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*If Earth only gave out a fake character claim in Bowser.
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@Lunatic
@Mharman
I'm a little wary of the claim as well, though I'll note he is taking an incredibly ballsy tack with claiming a JOAT like this if he's scum. Not saying I buy it necessarily, but the fact that he claimed with three votes on him, over 24 hours left in the DP, and my statement that I would come back to explain my position so that we could have it out (I don't know why he thought I was intransigent after having cast this vote just a couple of hours ago) doesn't sit well with me. I think there's a world where Earth includes backup investigative/protective roles, but it's not the one I'd believe is most likely.
A couple of other things that stand out. He claimed Bowser, a character we would certainly expect to be in a game where everyone is claiming Paper Mario bosses, but one that also stands out from the claims made so far (and my own) as a boss who exists well outside of the Paper Mario games and as the head honcho in general. Not saying that's necessarily a theme split, but it is something to consider.
I also don't like this defense:
Additionally, to read my claim as scummy, you’d have to believe that either Earth gave out a bastard fake claim, or that mafia already used their fake claim… which would require you to scumread Earth. Which would require you to ignore everything that made you give her a pass based on her claim.
I think this is weirdly limiting.
It's Earth only gave out a fake character claim in Bowser. We never got any clarity over what the nature of the fake claim was that was given to scum.
It also wouldn't be the first time I've seen a more experienced player on a scum team just decide to go for it with a claim and keep a fake claim in reserve for a less experienced player.
I don't see how this requires us to scumread Casey (I saw the correction later), either. The only way that's true is if we assume that scum have already used their fake claim, which is Mharman's base assumption. I don't think we should automatically jump to that conclusion.
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@Mharman
When I have a chance, I can spell my thoughts out in more detail. I've got a lot on my plate this morning, so it'll have to wait.
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@Mharman
I'm good with getting a full claim from both Barney and Mharman by the end of the DP for different reasons, though my preference between them is Mharman. He seems to accept that he went down a rabbit hole for much of the DP with Cerulean, so I can accept that to some degree. I'm just not fond of the protesting that he'd never do this as scum. His decision to take risky stances and push theories about busses isn't alignment indicative to me, but he keeps trying to paint it that way. I don't fully buy into Luna's view that he's doing this out of an abundance of confidence coming off of a well-played game as town, though I also can't dismiss the fact that Mharman's behavior does seem a little different this game, and I can't chalk that behavioral change up to a single vote being on him.
VTL Mharman
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@Barney
I'll add to it:
Dashboard
Player Role Character
Mhar "A boss"
Lunatic
Pie
Wylted General Guy
WF "A boss"
Barney Bullshitter "Sonic"
Skipper "A boss"
Cerulean
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@Cerulean
If I had to pick, the two at the bottom right now are Mharman and WyIted. Each of them have a little something that is setting me on edge.
As for your claiming, that’s not up to me at this point. You’ve got a handful of people to convince to avoid that. If it’s confirmable in some way, that might help.
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Alright, some reads. Some of these might not include more recent posts, as I've slowly been writing them over the course of the day, but here's where I'm at.
Barney - Playing pretty coy so far with the Sonic the Hedgehog claim, but that's not unusual for him. So far, he just seems to be having fun and organizing the claims. Can't read any of that as affiliation indicative, so null for me.
Pie - Limited participation so far. He placed Casey in his townblock early for the Hated claim. He also noted the existence of a fake claim (as spelled out in the OP) early and asked a question of Earth about what the extent of said claim would be, but I don't see a response (didn't expect one, either). His participation has largely petered out after page 1, so like Barney, there's not enough to read into yet to do anything but give him a null read.
Casey - I townread them early given the Hated claim, and I still hold to that, even though the existence of a fake claim at least offers an opportunity to get towncred through an early claim like this. It's more Casey's behavior that is leading me to put them in town. The responses I've seen to Mharman's line of thinking, to Skipper and to Cerulean just come off as pretty natural so far. Casey's reads also make sense enough that I'm giving them a town lean.
Luna - Not a huge amount of participation so far, but what I've seen puts him in slight town for me. I largely agree with the way he's responded to Mharman's push and I think his insights have been good so far. Maybe that's just because I'm similarly a little sus about just how hard Mharman believes Cerulean is working to subtly manipulate town over the course of two posts. Right now, that's enough for me.
WyIted - I always have a hard time reading WyIted. His solid townread of Skipper hasn't really wavered that I've seen, even while others have questioned it. Calling out Casey for not noticing flawed logic when he was going back-and-forth with Mharman comes off as a little strange, but WyIted often picks up on and runs with small "tells" he sees in peoples' posts. Maybe there's something there, but for now he's null for me.
Cerulean - Frankly, I'm not fond of the basis for this push on Cerulean, though I don't have any solid scumreads to begin with and he's just null for me. The fact that his vote persisted after Mharman started being active just doesn't come off as trying to make a play for a mislynch. The comparison to Banana from last game doesn't quite work for me, either. I feel like Cerulean's done a significantly better job explaining where he was coming from since being pressed, even if that explanation came later in the DP. I do think we still need a claim or two at this point, so I'm not opposed to getting one from Cerulean regardless, I just don't like the logic that's going into it.
I'm still null on Mharman and have a slight town lean on Skipper. I can see Mharman doing everything I've seen this DP as town or scum, including the OMGUS, and Skipper is more of a gut check based on how I read his early posts. They might be staged and I'm not writing him off yet, but I read them as genuine.
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Alright, I've caught up, read through Mharman's argument a couple of times, and read back through Cerulean's posts to see if there's a pattern of behavior that indicates what he's saying.
Right now... no, I don't really see it. Like Luna, I think Mharman's being a bit hyperbolic in his interpretation of Cerulean's motives. It's not to say that I'm townreading Cerulean over it or that I find this kind of tunnel vision from Mharman to be worthy of a scumread, but Cerulean's early pressure doesn't come off as some devious move to draw a lynch on Mharman. I did find it odd that he posted his decision to keep his vote on Mharman (back on page 3) to Mharman, but I can see that he was also responding to a quote from Mharman in the same post, so it's just a strange fusion of dissociated reads and response.
I haven't had as much time to interrogate Skipper and his responses. I agree he leaned pretty hard into noobishness early on. His early questions about Discord and whether scum would kill him came off as the kind of thing we've seen from new players before as town, but more excessive than usual. I could see a world in which he was instructed to do that to make himself look as noob town as possible. His requests for information come off as town. I can at least see him not being sure what SOP means in a Mafia context - just because it's a common use acronym doesn't mean it's going to be the same use here. On the other hand, his switch from defensiveness to contrition makes me a little more wary of him. Maybe he is just picking up on flaws in his play as he goes, but something about his behavior so far just doesn't sit well with me.
Anyway, I'd like to give thoughts on other players, but I've spent all my time digging into the back-and-forth between Mharman and Cerulean and all manner of posts from Skipper, so I haven't put attention elsewhere yet. Hopefully I'll have a full set of reads up later today.
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I'll catch up on the DP when I get a chance, too much to cover right now.
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@Mharman
Didn't intend to check back tonight, but I saw the ping. I've read your thoughts and I'll give Cerulean's posts a look through in the morning to see if I agree.
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Anyway, while I'm open to discussing this more and going into whatever Mharman seems to be hinting at, I think I'm going to call it here and pick this back up tomorrow.
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@Casey_Risk
Whiteflame - One thing I've noticed about WF's scum game is that he'll try and act like he does as town, trying to move the game forward and helping the town out, except he never actually does that much or provides much genuine insight. It's part of why I scumread him early in the last game (and was right). But here, he was the one who picked up on the fact that we all appear to be bosses from Paper Mario. Now, it's definitely possible that he could have figured that out on his own based on the fakeclaim given by Earth, so I suppose I shouldn't read too much into it. For now, however, I do lean town on WF.
Fair. Tbh, last game was particularly low energy for me for... well, a bunch of reasons. If I was coming off that game and going scum again, I'd definitely put more effort into it, and given that we know scum have a fake claim, taking the reins on some theme analysis wouldn't be off the table for me if I was, so I can understand the hesitancy.
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@Barney
...Brains!
Won’t find those here I’m afraid.
I'm Sonic the Hedgehog, the lead villain of the Halo franchise.
Damn, no wonder he collects all those rings!
Unvote
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@Mharman
I guess I'm liking Casey's claim, but I'm not gonna hardlock Casey as town just yet. Mafia were given fake claims after all. Normally this would be a claim too risky for scum, but if it's a fake claim, it may have emboldened her. I don't have any real evidence that this is the case, but it's worth noting.
I'm considering this as well. The fake claim would also have given scum insight into the theme split from the get-go, so I'm not automatically townreading either WyIted or Casey as a result. I still like the claim, partly for the fact that Casey claimed he didn't know that the role ceases at MYLO/LYLO. It's still possible that was part of the tactic, so it's not a strong read.
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Here's the breakdown of the claims and softclaims so far. That makes 5 people who have claimed to be from the first game (Tubba Blubba and General Guy are both from that game).
1. Mhar
2. Lunatic
3. Pie
4. Casey - Tubba Blubba - Hated
5. Wylted - General Guy - ???
6. WF - Paper Mario (2000)
7. Barney
8. Skipper - Paper Mario (2000)
9. Cerulean - Paper Mario (2000)
I don't think it makes sense to hold this in reserve, so I'll note what may or may not be obvious: both Tubba Blubba and General Guy are bosses in this game. I can confirm that my character is also a boss. I'm actually buying the Hated claim more at this point, since it seems to place the fact that Tubba Blubba is a pushover as the reason for him to be hated among villains.
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@Skipper_Sr
The mafia's going to try to kill me now, aren't they?
You've given us pretty strong reason to believe you're town, but scum don't always kill a new player this early. Chances are you won't be the only person who is widely townread by the end of this DP, so it's mainly a matter of who scum thinks will be the most valuable by virtue of their likely role or how effectively they hunt for scum.
Since you are being townread at this point, it's best for you to provide what insight you can on player behaviors and claims as they roll in. I know you're new to this, but it is still worth your while to be engaged and see if you can find anything that you think is odd.
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@WyIted
I don't and I am not going to research this at all. I will just say I am the general guy, so I can avoid spending that much time on the game.
Alright, that also fits.
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I admittedly have limited information and even less context, but if everything is coming from the first game and Casey isn’t fake claiming, then I can at least see a trend among town characters based on theirs and mine. Too early and too little info to call any kind of theme split.
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@Barney
Going to need to see some signs of life.
VTL Barney
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@Cerulean
Unvote
Looks like my character is from the first game.
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@WyIted
I think it’s justifiable as an SOP claim, you don’t have to agree.
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