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@AustinL0926
If Bullish, WF, Cerulean, and banana, all want me to claim, I will do so by the end of the day.
At this point, there's enough of a push against it that I'll lay off of pursuing it for this DP. That's under the expectation is that you fullclaim next DP.
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@WyIted
Because he had a feeling I was watcher and wanted to explain being seen somewhere just in case. If that had come to pass it could be that he just refrained from using the gladiator role.
I... really don't get this. It was clear he targeted you, Casey confirmed that at the start of the DP. If he was concerned that you were the Watcher, he'd have to believe that you'd Watched yourself, which again he wouldn't need to support because Casey literally confirmed you as his target.
Is anyone concerned about bullish just randomly showing up to ensure town is lynched and randomly disappearing. Who was he going after last dp prior to lynching his town readThe other person he is pursuing was probably town I have to look back at it
If we're at the point where we're sussing the two people who are outright confirmed, then I think we've gone off the rails here. I could see a world in which one of them is scum, but that's also one where there are at least two Vanilla townies and scum has at least a manipulator JOAT and one of these roles. I don't buy that their third player has a PR, or at minimum that scum doesn't have these two PRs alongside the JOAT.
As for who he was pursuing, he flipped between Moozer and me.
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@iamanabanana
It's more about how confident Cerulean is about Wylt being mafia, doing the whole big case against him and just deciding that wylted is scum and being so confident of it to use his role on him. And why would wylted not just lie about his watcher results if he was mafia? His reaction to all this seemed genuine, but I don't know him that well either. I just don't see why he would claim to watch the person who was night killed and say he doesn't have a result instead of faking it to get a a lynch if he was mafia, he came into this day phase level headed and willing to consider all options and didn't have an agenda. It's not so much that I am "pushing" cerulean but more that it's the only option he left us with, and between him and wylted, wylted seems to be more town here. Is cerulean ability a role that is commonly town sided?
When the alternative was to be pushed to claim his role (which Cerulean would have been had he not used it) and revealing his role having not used it, I can see why he'd feel some pressure to use it since I know I at least would have sussed him for just straight up refusing to use his role. Whether he's scum or town, that's true, and no matter which side you're on, you need some degree of confidence to choose a target. I at least think he's justified his choice, even if I disagree with some of his reasoning.
When it comes to lying about Watcher results, my answer is that that's WIFOM thinking. He has incentive to draw attention to someone else, I agree, but in a DP where he literally can't get someone else lynched aside from Cerulean, drawing attention elsewhere isn't necessarily his best choice in this DP, especially since his choices are diminishing rapidly. It also serves as a reason to claim that scum have a given PR, which if we buy it, means we're dismissing other PRs in the process.
As for whether Cerulean's Gladiator is town-sided, I've admittedly only ever seen it in a town context. I've read that it can be a scum role, but that's the rarer version.
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@WyIted
Him being a visiting role is still suspect.
I'm not saying it's impossible that he's scum. I'm not sure why he'd lie about this, though.
If you look over the last DP, does it look like I am really convinced of my position on Moozer or does it look like I am pretending?
You seemed convinced, though that doesn't really change anything for me. I think you'd act similarly on that as scum or town. Frankly, I think Moozer did himself in, so I'm not holding that against you to begin with.
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@iamanabanana
I've had a lot else to focus on the last couple of days, so I'll admit I just haven't had the bandwidth to focus on this game as much as I'd like.
Still, I can't say I understand a push on Cerulean here. Banana, Cerulean's role literally makes the DP a heads-up between two players, so it's a given that he'd have to pick a target and use his role on them, partially to confirm his role and partially because, frankly, WyIted was in a lot of peoples' potential scum pool at the end of the last DP. I'll note that he was also pretty thorough in giving his reasoning for every player still left in the game. I get that he pushed on you last game, though I just don't see his push in the same light this time. I can see a world in which Cerulean is somehow a scum Gladiator, but that would be new to me and I haven't seen a good reason to cast him in that light yet.
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@Bullish
I’m not so convinced, but if that’s a common sentiment (I’ve only seen your response so far), then I can just end this. Considering there have already been two NPs and four DPs to act, I’m not sure what exactly we stand to lose, especially as there’s a more than decent chance that he ends up being the NK, which might deny us information as well.
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@Bullish
Why do you want austin's claim so much? Is it going to help you decide between lynching wylted and cerulean?
I think there’s value in receiving the information now because he remains the sole person who is unclaimed and I would prefer to having it sooner rather than later, though I’m noting Austin’s lack of response about his claim as troubling as well.
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@WyIted
I could have been redirected also geniuses
I don't buy that scum have multiple redirect roles in a game with 2-3 Vanillas, particularly that they'd have a manipulative JOAT who has a Redirector, a Deflector and a Bus Driver and then also have another scum with a similarly manipulative role. Your suggestion of Ninja is more likely.
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By my count, we're up to 3 votes on WyIted. Please, no one else add yours until Austin has claimed.
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@WyIted
You are not going to pressure anyone. I will be mislynched at LYLO if I am not mislynched now so it is better to get it out of the way. Just vote me so we can end the dp since nobody wants VTNL
I would like Austin's claim, so no, I'm not going to just VTL you right now.
I don't like how my decision to pursue moozer is being criticized either when I laid out my reasoning for doing so and not a single individual has criticized my reasoning.How are we expected to criticize and improve each other's reasoning abilities when we are ignoring the reasoning presented and just making the bare assertion the other person is wrong.
I'm not criticizing your decision to pursue Moozer. We largely agreed on the reasoning for why Moozer was the lynch last DP. I've got other reasons to sus you at this point, though I'll admit most of it comes down to PoE.
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@AustinL0926
I largely agree with what you’ve said (PoE is basically down to WyIted and Earth for me at this point, too), but I don’t like that you’ve ignored multiple calls to claim. It’s DP4, and even though you can’t be pressured by votes, you really shouldn’t be withholding at this stage.
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@WyIted
My gut is also starting to shift and not behaviorally but just listening to my gut than scum is whiteflame and bullish.Whiteflames response to me earlier seemed unnecessarily confrontational.He didn't point out to others that me visiting the NK was suspicious. He pointed it out to me. Why would he try to convince me it is suspicious? It's not like I can do shit about it. I will say it seems out of character for him to be that aggressive as well. I had a hard town read on him yesterday but when you are as certain as I was that Moozer was scum than it gets you rethinking all of your previous thoughts and whiteflame felt off in that behavior.
This is some baffling reasoning. To start, you initiate this post with a sus on me and Bullish in the first sentence, and then don't mention Bullish again for several posts afterward and for quite a while after that you barely mention him.
And your reason for sussing me is just BS. You're basically just calling me out for responding to you directly rather than pointing it out to others. Yep, you caught me: I guess I shouldn't have tagged you in the post where I was actively quoting you to address your points. I don't really get the aggression point, either. I haven't even VTL'd you yet.
Maybe he had a bad day. Maybe I pissed him off recently and am unaware of it. However maybe he is scum. I know I have a part of me when I am on the scum team that just gets nastier, and it's hard to suppress
So... let me get this straight. I, as scum, eliminated the town member who had the most reason to townread me due to his own result. I then get sussed by you in a DP where no one can VTL me anyway, and my response to that is to get nasty because...? I'd say it's more than a little weird to call the post in question "nasty" as well. Pointing out the obvious in response to you and telling you my own theory was bunk doesn't seem particularly rude or nasty.
For the record, we're good and I'm good.
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@WyIted
I don't care how ridiculous it is. I don't buy that he is town.
Then maybe don't lean on my theme analysis to do it. My theme is bunk now.
YYeah or maybe it's a 1x or something and me trying to bait them to kill lunatic was too obvious.
So you think there are two scum JOATs then? Find that hard to believe. Also, doesn't look particularly good that you've said you visited Luna on the night he was killed.
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I'm going to be busy for the next few hours, but I'll come back to this later. Suffice it to say that WyIted was my top pick for a lynch this DP (Cerulean was clearly on the same page) and that I can't say his claim really moves the needle for me. We already had an investigative role in Luna and I can definitely see this game only having one town investigative role, particularly if there's three Vanillas. Admittedly, given PoE, I'm not as sure of that anymore.
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@AustinL0926
I realize that you're not a potential lynch this DP (and, full disclosure, you wouldn't be my choice anyway), but unless you have a really good reason to keep your role under wraps, you should be claiming this DP.
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@WyIted
Not a problem. I am the watcher and was obviously trying to direct the NK. I watched lunatic on both NPs.
I can see why you'd do that last NP, not so much for NP1. Were you townreading Luna that hard back then?
The scum team must have a ninja or something and I saw nothing either NP
I guess that's possible, though considering how weak town is and how strong a PR Owen was, I doubt that scum have a lot of roles left to them. Weird that they'd just a have a role that's meant to counter yours and yours alone since no one else has claimed a tracking role.
The movie is the rear windows if that matters and it fits with whiteflames theme theory.
...except with Moozer's flip, my theory's clearly bogus.
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Alive
Dead
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@WyIted
Well, Luna was practically a given as the NK: claimed Cop to whom Moozer outright said he was sending his Doc.
I suspect that Cerulean used his Gladiator on WyIted (the Spartacus claim makes a good deal of sense with that role), so let's start with the obvious:
WyIted, you need to fullclaim. Was planning on pushing for it this DP anyway (still not sure why I was alone in that last DP), so this just gives us more focus.
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@AustinL0926
I don't like either of the wagons. Consider Wylted here.Especially given that he's trying to set up my mislynch regardless of how Moozer flips.
I can see a case for pursuing WyIted if Moozer flips town, but he has a point about how you've defended him. I'm not automatically in either camp atm.
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@WyIted
Actually if it looks like there is a one in a billion chance you are town and Austin defends you as town when your neck is on the line it suggests inside knowledge. If you flip scum I can dismiss him as a retard. If you flip town than I have to question why he knew the one in a billion chance to be true thing was true.
You're not wrong. Austin's been incredibly dismissive of the main issues with his claim and, especially considering his history of having a "confirmable" fake claim as scum and coasting off of that to a win, I really don't like how ardent he's been when it comes to defending Moozer. In a world where Moozer is town, I still don't like his defense at all.
The Godfather theory is wrong.
On this much, we agree.
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@Bullish
Well, I guess there’s no talking you out of your tunnel vision at this point. If you think the existence of cross-dressers in my movie makes me the Godfather, who somehow investigates not just as town, but as Vanilla Town, then there’s no convincing you otherwise.
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@WyIted
Makes sense. Maybe he got the answer in a discord chat with Casey.
I just messed up on this one and flipped Austin and Casey around. Not evidence of anything beyond my lack of moderator permanence.
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Sorry, I’m stupid and somehow flipped Casey and Austin as mods. That’s my bad.
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To be clear, he somehow received answers to both while Austin was offline. Yep, this is getting more believable by the second.
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So I’m going to note the obvious;
Moozer said roughly a few hours ago that he would ask Austin about his role and also changed his target within that timeframe. Austin hasn’t been on at time of writing in 14 hours.
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@Moozer325
I mean… good that you’re asking I guess, but seems like this should have been an obvious question. Also, I thought you’d said you would wait to submit until we’d decided on your target. What happened to that?
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@Moozer325
Going to pose these questions to you again:
Strange as well that you haven’t mentioned a limit on when you can act. Is it just the end of the DP? Could you submit it now, get lynched, and it would still go to the target because you confirmed your target before you died? If not, why isn’t it just a nighttime role?
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@WyIted
I honestly think this is the hail Mary. As soon as moozer is lynched Austin just gives up and we don't even see a DP3I definitely understand the frustration on their part but whoever Is next should get their sign ups going
I haven't changed my mind yet about it. If this is a creation of Casey's, then Moozer was virtually guaranteed to be a lynch so long as he didn't use his role early, and by now Moozer should really know better. And yeah, Austin's responses do come off that way. He's letting a lot of shit slide and just saying "Moozer seems town" on what seems like a whim.
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@AustinL0926
Yes, I think Casey could easily have been inspired by it (admittedly Moozer could have copied it too so this is a weak point).
Inspired by it and just happening to choose Moozer's own fake claim as one of the differentiators? It's a very weak point.
I'm annoyed at Moozer as well. Guess what, I don't lynch people because they're annoying. There is a huge distinction between being anti-town and scummy, being able to identify the difference is one of the most critical skills any mafia player can have.
Yeah... I really don't like this response. I didn't say "Moozer's annoying, we should lynch him." I pointed to a pattern of behavior that is problematic throughout his games and that it's likely to get him lynched often. I gave plenty of other reasons why he should be lynched this game. Annoyance doesn't even rate.
Another point in Moozer's favor. I'm just going to say right now that my role has no overlap with Moozer, and weakly supports the existence of his role.
Yes, the role you're unwilling to claim supports his claim. Great. I'm not going to take that on faith, dude. This is barely even a softclaim and I'm not just going to assume how well your role covers for him. You have the information. I don't. But you expect me to rely on vague hints.
He can literally give it to someone who can confirm, it doesn't matter the doc actually works.
Don't like this, either. Yes, someone else can confirm, and if that someone else is his scum partner, it's going to be "confirmed" without actual confirmation. Especially coming from you, someone who has pulled this same gambit with a fake Messenger role, I find it really hard to believe you're accepting this. Also, I pointed out that Moozer has been exceptionally cagey about how his role works for someone who is at L-1, and the portion of my post you responded to here pointed out that Moozer's role likely doesn't even make basic sense as a daytime role. Don't see a response to that from you or him.
That's decent analysis, but I still townread Moozer overall.
Because you believe he forgot. Right.
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Anyway, it's late and I'd rather hit this back up in the morning at this stage. I'll respond to anything else then.
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@AustinL0926
The rest of this post I've already discussed elsewhere. Suffice it to say, I don't like how easily you're writing off so much of what doesn't make sense about Moozer's claim. I'd understand if your goal was just to give him the opportunity to prove himself, but you've now repeatedly called him townie, which doesn't follow from what you've acknowledged as true.
Why are you role fishing?
I'm not role fishing. I've made it very clear that you're my second scumread right now, and that your intransigence stands out as part of the reason for that.
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@Bullish
thats actually good analysis
Thanks.
Moozer is literally confirmable, just have him give me the doc and then I doc myself
I'm almost certain it won't play out that way and that we'll be back to discussing this next DP, but fine. If we're looking elsewhere, who's your preferred lynch?
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@Cerulean
If it's any consolation, I intend to confirm my role (not alignment, unfortunately) tomorrow and it can't be prevented.
That’s fine by me, at least for now.
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@Moozer325
My role is pretty weird and complicated, it feels like it’s a odd scum claim. Though, you could go into a whole WIFOM thing about how this is what I intended
Noted and addressed. Literally had a role just like this with a different gifted role last game. Only difference is the daytime use.
My mistake about forgetting to use my role is something I’ve done many times before. I use this excuse every time, and I don’t expect to get a pass for it every time, but it’s what happened, so that’s what I’m telling you.
A. You really have to stop doing it, dude. You get sussed for it all the time, so whether you’re doing this accidentally or intentionally, please stop.
B. You’re definitely not getting a pass for it, particularly with this role and what it takes to confirm yourself. You either went anti-town with it or you’re scummy. Both are bad.
So far I’m an un-CCed protective role (I think, could have missed something)
Not convinced of that yet. Decently likely there’s another protective role that’s just not claimed yet because it’s not a CC. Even if there are no others, in a game with a Vanilla Cop and this many Vanillas, I suspect both town and scum are underpowered, so that’s not impossible.
I can confirm myself over the night. If anyone wants me to, you can pick a player for me to give the doc to, and I’ll do that.
Even if you did that, I can almost guarantee that something will happen during the NP that will result in an unexpected result. Strange as well that you haven’t mentioned a limit on when you can act. Is it just the end of the DP? Could you submit it now, get lynched, and it would still go to the target because you confirmed your target before you died? If not, why isn’t it just a nighttime role? I don’t see what you “confirm” here, either.
I claimed a holiday movie super early on, which locked me in for either “It’s a wonderful life”, or “Miricle on 34tg street” so not a lot of options there.
Should we just ignore the fact that Owen just straight up claimed his scum character? Also, why would you point out that you gave yourself two options? How does that help you to point out that you knew you had a potential fake claim?
While we’re at it, no one’s done any theme analysis yet, but it seems like there’s a solid connection between Baby Face and It’s A Wonderful Life that hasn’t been discussed yet: films that weren’t appreciated on release. It’s A Wonderful Life got its figurative wings as a film when it started being played on television, not when it was in theaters. Can’t say the other films claimed so far fit that bill.
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At this point, here’s how I’m seeing everyone:
Bullish is confirmed town by his role. Can’t see him being scum with that.
Banana is basically confirmed town. I’d say it’s extremely unlikely that Owen pushes that hard against his own scum partner with limited pressure from other players.
WyIted is town. I had my concerns about him in DP1, but he was pushing Moozer before the claim and I can’t see him doing that as scum.
I also put Luna as town. Vanilla Cop makes way too much sense in a game with this many likely Vanillas.
Earth is a town lean. I can see a world in which he’s just managing to fit in with the Vanilla crowd due to being a Goon, but the wording he used has me putting him here.
Cerulean’s in the same camp. He plays a very convincing town as scum as we saw last game, but everything I’ve seen from him so far is just too authentic for me to make him fully null.
That leaves Austin. He was already in PoE, and frankly, his defense of Moozer is so baffling that I’d easily consider his lynch this DP, not to mention the hard turn on me made no sense.
There’s also Moozer, but he’s scum for so many reasons.
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@AustinL0926
So you return, brush off the sus on me, and are also basically ignoring the responses I gave you and my bases for sussing Moozer and pursuing his lynch. That’s a choice.
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@AustinL0926
@iamanabanana
Well, that’s over four hours of silence despite several people (Austin, in particular) being online. Don’t like that.
Banana, you should be involved in this discussion. At least give your thoughts on Moozer’s claim and the subsequent discussion thereof.
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And, to be clear, the above is the main reason why I don't like all the suggestions that we just let Moozer take another DP to confirm himself. He doesn't need one DP to do it because one confirmation isn't enough. He needs two, and his choice to waste DP1 and DP2 when he had the opportunity to start confirming himself is just baffling. At this point, Moozer could only firmly be confirmed in his role by DP5 (that's assuming he picks two separate targets and both independently confirm receipt), by which point we might be at 3-2 if we mislynch twice.
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@Earth
There is two.
I phrased that poorly. The idea was that, if he had two people to independently confirm that they'd received an invention, that would be solid confirmation of his role. A scum Moozer could "send an invention" to a scum partner and get "confirmed" by that partner. A scum Moozer couldn't do that with two different people since there are only two scum left in the game.
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@Cerulean
I thought you had a point there for a second so I went back and checked. Wouldn't have thought to consider it myself and didn't see it reading through the OP the first time.
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@Cerulean
We haven't had an Odd night. Night 1 was skipped, so last night would have been Night 2. Meaning you shouldn't have a check.
Worth checking the OP:
Note: last night was considered to be NP1 although taking place after DP2, due to being the first completed night phase of the game.
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@AustinL0926
Also, why are we not giving him a phase to confirm?
Because we already did. He had TWO DPS to confirm his role and didn't, whether out of an abundance of misplaced caution or because, as you put it, he just plumb forgot.
This is especially sus by whiteflame, who tore into town last game for not letting Owen, who claimed almost the exact same role, confirm himself.
And the difference is that, in that game, Owen was lynched DP1. He didn't have a chance to confirm. If Owen had survived and claimed he didn't use his role NP1, I'd have been right alongside everyone else sussing the fuck out of him for failing to confirm his role when given the chance.
He had some sketchy positioning around Owen's wagon and I don't like his overconfident push here. There's zero reason for him to be as confident as he is in Moozer being scum, and pushing it so hard, without agenda.
I've been very thorough on my reasoning for Moozer being scum. If you want to call it overconfidence, then respond to even a fraction of what I've posted because this is ridiculous. As for Owen, I made clear at the start of DP2 that he was my preferred lynch. But at this point, if you want to lynch me, you'd better have a good reason not to believe Luna's result.
I'm not claiming btw. Let scum deal with me at night.
If all of the above defense of Moozer wasn't enough, this is just the icing on the cake. No one's pushed on you for your claim yet, but you're already defensive about it and dismissive of any potential pressure you could receive. If your goal is to draw attention to you, you're doing great.
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@AustinL0926
On a surface level, it looks ridiculous.
On the surface...? Seriously? I've given multiple levels on which Moozer's claim looks absolutely absurd. Don't see many responses.
But if you believe Moozer is scum here, you'd have to believe he came up with the effort of creating a complex role claim, an excellent justification,
Yep, it's unbelievable, right? That he'd come up with a claim that parrots Owen's actual role from the very last game we've played smashed together with his own Doc claim that he used in the one recent game where he's been scum, adding in a daytime use for flavor? It's a complex role, but it's roots come from two games we can directly point to, one of which included a known scum in this game and the other came from Moozer himself. On top of that, you're assuming for reasons I can't fathom that Moozer came up with this alone. There are three scum in this game, one still unknown. It's a bad claim, but it's a team effort. Also, please, "excellent justification"? It's barely decent, but my justification is literally non-existent. I don't buy that anything about his justification supports his claim.
Like, he could have claimed 1-shot, he could have claimed Night Inventor who got roleblocked, he could have claimed regular Doctor (consider that if this is a fakeclaim, then there very likely isn't an actual Doctor in the game, as he could have asked Casey for a safeclaim), and
Again, literally the fake claim he came up with last time was a 2-shot. The rest of this is all WIFOM. He could have claimed to only act during the night. Sure. I don't understand why he'd claim a day phase action either, but this is a game where Owen already shit the bed with his claim. Claiming an Inventor role allows someone else to "confirm" him, and I doubt he'd just straight up do the exact same thing he did as scum previously.
just to come up with a terrible excuse for why he couldn't use it.he claims in what's almost designed to look like the scummiest way possible.It's easier for me to think that he had this role and forgot. I've seen worse.
So you acknowledge that the excuse is fucking awful, and that the manner of his claim is scummy as hell, but he's solid town to you? You just straight up buy that he forgot to use a role that could have been used to confirm him, particularly if he used it on two separate targets with only one scum left in the game? I had to pull these sentences from your post because I can't fathom how you'd think this way and still townread him.
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I'm fine with getting more claims this DP and not rushing the lynch. Austin in particular would be a good claim to get, but if we're considering other lynches, someone will have to give me a very good reason not to lynch Moozer beyond just "he can use his role and someone else can confirm his role."
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@Bullish
Everyone knows "at least 1" = 2, so whiteflame is the odd vanilla out
Brilliant deduction. Clearly, this is the smoking gun.
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@Bullish
The push on moozer is dumb af, just have him confirm his role lol.There's 0 point having a scum doc giver, if his role is confirmed he's basically affliction confirmed, like me.Also this super unsubtle post https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/11871/posts/477064 to redirect the wagon off owen onto pie
This is just baffling. Moozer straight up refused to use his role to confirm himself despite having 4 and a half days to make a choice. He also had you, someone who was virtually confirmed town, as a choice. All he has to do at this point is claim he used his role on his scum partner, and he’ll have “confirmed” using it, the same way he “confirmed” himself in the Indian Politicians game. I also don’t get how it’s affiliation confirmation unless his target correctly protects the target of the NK, which scum can easily manipulate by just refusing to NK.
As for that post, understanding why Pie would be a target after multiple people began sussing him is not an effort to derail the lynch, nor was questioning how baffling Owen’s strategy would have to be as scum to put him in that position.
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@Bullish
Austin and banana are big time townwhiteflame is big time scumVTL whiteflame
Mind explaining this… at all?
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@Cerulean
If anyone wants to chime in on the playstyle of Town Moozer vs. Scum Moozer, I'm all ears.
I've had a decent amount of experience with him, including one game on a team with him as scum, though he stepped out of that one early. Long story short, he's not always great with his claims as either town or scum and has made mistakes that have gotten him lynched, but this seems excessive on a bunch of fronts I've already pointed out. He's only had one recent game as scum, so it's our most informative, and that's the Indian Politicians game.
He fake claimed 2X Doc that game (seem familiar?), and among a number of other issues with the claim, one was that he just conveniently chose not to use it during one NP in the middle of the game so that he could claim he used it NP3 to protect someone. So he has a history of claiming a role that he selectively uses to claim that he can prove himself later.
I'm realizing I made a mistake saying that Moozer fake claimed Vig in a previous game. That was actually JoeBob.
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