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@Lunatic
As someone who has succumbed to tunnel vision myself in more than a few games (and I was pretty close to doing that with you early in this game), I don't blame you. Generally speaking, I need to do better at taking a step back and feeling out whether I'm digging myself too deep in a read that wasn't that good to begin with. I either do that or I agonize over my reads to the point that I second guess everything, and I've got to find a middle ground somewhere.
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@Lunatic
@Cerulean
Honestly, up until the claim, I was right there with you. Behaviorally, nothing set me off. He did great, and even got close to convincing me in the end.
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@Lunatic
It’s all good, dude. I realized deep into the first DP that we were probably just arguing town v. town, mainly because I started recognizing my impulses were pushing me to find anything that made me feel validated rather than seeing the bigger picture. It happens, just glad we didn’t end up pushing it too far.
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Fuck it.
At this point, I'm frustrated by mechanical reads. Neither of you ever demonstrated your roles, which is what makes this all the more difficult. I can see a world in which Banana is just told to sit back, not participate much in DP2 because she was widely townread, and then come back later. Behaviorally, if anything, I'm favoring Cerulean.
Both of you have soft claims that narrow the window substantially, but Cerulean's "slip" in DP1 is the weaker of the two - I can see speculation about extra NKs hinting at other scum roles or just a straight up Vig, so he's leaning a lot on a DP2 "soft claim" articulated by a pair of posts asking Pie for details about his role, which isn't really enough by itself. By DP2, I would expect scum have their roles in hand.
It's also really weird that Cerulean would bring up a delay in the use of a Vig charge at this point. I understood that Cerulean was getting a charge, but he never mentioned that it was only usable the following night, so all of a sudden he has a means to justify why he wouldn't claim early because his being the target of the NK means he couldn't use it and it would just go to waste. It's doubly frustrating that he never articulated it as a visit and now seems to be falling into that camp.
So I'm just going to end this. I can see problems with both claims and ways in which both sides could have manipulated my results at just the right times in just the right ways, but in a game with this much town PR, I can see a world in which scum has some significant PR of its own more easily than I can see Banana just nailing all these moments left and right. I also just can't accept all this last minute information from Cerulean that, frankly, should have been stated outright with his claim last DP. Banana, if you did all this, then you did well.
VTL Cerulean
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Apologies for the spacing on the above. I was writing up thoughts on my read on an external document while typing up my responses, forgot about the copy-paste issue.
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@Cerulean
Sorry, I was writing up my responses and didn't see your post. I'm not looking for responses to the above. I'd like you to focus on this post if you want to respond because this is my main basis for sussing you right now. I wrote this up referencing you in the third person, so bear with me.
There are a bunch of things I don’t like about his role. The reversal of the expected Conditional Vig still sets me off a bit, asdoes the case of Luna standing as a clearly odd instance where the NK itselfoccurs but the effect is delayed (something that should be clarified in his PM,though he didn’t quote it), but that’s less of an issue than what he’s leftout. In particular, two things stand out:
- His legacy role is particularly strange. I haven’tseen him engage with the fact that his legacy role is literally unusable onmost targets. Right now, with 2/3s of the field dead, he would have a choice ofprecisely… two targets: Owen, with his Rolestopper-Inventor, and Moozer, withhis Strengthener. Casey’s useless because he couldn’t deliver Casey’s results. Luna’srole is only useful if you’re still alive. Earth’s is just plain useless. Maybehe could use Pie’s role, but Cerulean has notably not mentioned how his legacyrole interacts with non-flips or with Mafia roles. I find it hard to believe thatAustin would give town any kind of access to scum roles.
- An absence of detail seems like a common flaw. Atno point has he claimed that he didn’t visit his targets, but he’s kind of beenassuming it all along since he hasn’t mentioned how Casey’s role could haveconfirmed him (note: no one else has a role that selects a target but doesn’tvisit them). It’s a minor thing, but it puts me off.
- His softclaim back in DP2 doesn’t make sensebased on what we now know his role to be. He said this back then:
“Me claiming would make my role effectively worthless.”
What, exactly, is it about his claim that makes it “effectivelyworthless”? Unless we assume scum can somehow redirect his choice or somehowmanipulate it, that doesn’t make sense. If he meant that he might become thetarget of the NK NP2 if he had claimed, then a) he could have chosen himself asthe target for the NK and goaded it out, and b) that doesn’t make sense of whyhe’s still alive. If an RB is an odd choice to leave alive, a Conditional Vigwith a dwindling number of plausible targets is even stranger, since they canend the game during the NP. Strange that Cerulean’s never noted that.
I'll vote before I head to bed in a couple of hours, regardless of responses. I feel bad that we're getting to this only at the end and that you're not getting much of a chance to respond because you have an early day, but right now, I'm still sussing you.
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@Cerulean
if Banana is passive and Pie is active, why would Banana claim active? That would get caught out by a Tracker- so I think Banana actually being the JOAT makes more sense.
Doesn't address the chief issue that I mentioned, which was that Banana would have to have held onto her Lawyer all the way to NP3. I don't buy that.
The JOAT abilities: Delay, Lawyer, Frame, Rolecop
It's possible, but that Rolecop is just a straight up guess. Your explanation for what she must have done to have retained the Lawyer this long is a possible but peculiar narrative, especially when you acknowledge the NP2 gap.
The Claim
All this is a matter of how we're reading certain behavioral choices, and everything you've said here has to be true (that Pie would push a scummy fake claim, that they would pretty blatantly softclaim RB or Bus Driver, and that Pie would also instruct Banana to CC) for her to be scum. Again, it's possible, but just because the opportunity existed doesn't mean it's the likeliest way these events play out. The posts themselves don't look nearly as tailored as the strategy you're laying out.
The Investigation Vote: Two and Zero
I just really don't like this reasoning, especially as this is a new mechanic in this game. It doesn't help that you sussed both a vote for 2 and a vote for 0, which essentially makes 2/3 or the possible choices somehow scummy. It's possible that there's a strategy here, but any choice could have been a strategy.
Let's use this point to talk about Bussing Pie Day 1. Banana proposed earlier that bussing Pie on Day 1 is unpairing. This does not really work, because it's fairly basic distancing- but more importantly, pushing a teammate is very common newbie scum behavior.
We continue with all the things that Pie would have to instruct Banana to do, though I'll note that this is not what I'd consider "very common newbie scum behavior", at least not from my experience. If anything, I've seen more newbies just try their best to act like they're ignoring their scum partner. Maybe this is what you'd do, I don't buy that it's what Banana would do.
I would also note that Pie's behavior around Banana's claim was weird. Remember, Pie hard pushed Earth because Miller is apparently a scummy claim. But claiming a role that typically appears as scum gets an "ok ur town" (This post).
So a dismissive townread from a scum player on a newbie player that was being commonly townread is somehow sus? Pie always pushes claimed Millers. He also generally does this with newbies who come off strongly as newbies. It's also just weird that you'd think that Pie would townread his scum partner while telling his scum partner to scumread him.
This is the first mechanical point against Banana- claiming to block Pie. The reasoning is vaguely there, but it's mostly just mirroring what Lunatic was already saying. The idea, presumably, was to have Pie be "roleblocked" as at least a partial alibi. Unfortunately for them, Moozer ruined that.
I don't understand this. If your scenario is right, Moozer ruined nothing because Pie pretended to be Silenced anyway. Maybe it would have affected them DP3, but I don't really see how it's that dramatic of a problem, since Pie could always have claimed to somehow know he'd been visited by two different people. Instead, he torpedoed himself.
Pie intentionally voted all over the place, presumably including votes on Banana to throw things off. He could've avoided Banana entirely- she was consensus townread, after all- but I imagine this was more distancing by placing votes on almost everyone.
So first he's townreading her for little reason and that's scummy. Then he's VTLing everyone and that's scummy. I guess that's possible, but it's a weird "have your cake and eat it, too" tactic.
LegacyFirst, after Day 1, Banana never had enough posts to trigger it, even though it's fairly powerful.
Explained as well by absence for any number of reasons, not going to sus that. It's a tactical error that I'd frame as anti-town rather than scummy.
Second, it's decidedly different from every other legacy in that it's, well, just a single additional charge of her ability.
I don't get this, either. Your role is distinct. No one else gets to select someone who is already dead. No one else gets to use a role that belongs to someone else. Several of these are, effectively, use a specific role on death, but none of them allow the user to choose a role. Several are just reveals, including mine. Where does yours fit in?
Hammer and InvestigationBanana hammered the vote once again with over an hour to go. To be frank, this is the first part where I actually started sussing Banan.
As someone who did this with Luna, who flipped town, I'm not buying that this makes her scummy.
What's even worse about this, though, is that Banana skipped out on the investigation.
Another "scummy by absentia" claim and another instance of anti-town behavior.
This point is admittedly a little out there, but it pinged me along with the rest of the circumstances there:Roleblocking one of my scum reads tonight.Scum reads, plural, gives a faint implication of knowing that Moozer would flip town. If you weren't sure, you might say something like "Blocking my strongest scumread tonight" or something similar. Even beyond not giving any impression as to who those scumreads are, the phrasing is off.
She still had multiple scumreads by this point. There's a difference between multiple reads and multiple scum.
We have no idea how Banana got from point A (Pie/WF evil) to point B (Cerulean/Earth evil??) because there's no thought process shown in the thread.
You're right, but again, this is you painting a lack of activity as scummy, which doesn't work as a reason to scumread her for me.
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@Cerulean
By the way, WF read this part, do scum in DART get to talk in their chat after they die? Asking because this is a pretty decent wall for someone's.. first? Second? game.
I'm reading it all (and plan to re-read before I make a decision), but yes, scum do get to talk in their chat after they die, as usual. I'll give my thoughts on her post and yours when I'm done reading back through, so I won't comment on this now.
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@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
Alright, thanks for the detailed thoughts. I didn’t see you online for a while, hence my last post.
Cerulean, I’m tagging you on this since the last post wasn’t tagged and it’s our first vote. Giving you the last word before I make a decision.
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@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
Well, we’re at mid-afternoon on my end with a little less than 10 hours remaining. Banana’s been offline since her last post, so we might not get a chance to have all 3 of us online and posting together in real time. Absent that, decisions still have to be made, so we can’t be stuck in a holding pattern forever. Banana in particular seems really uncertain, but none of us can remain indecisive now and holding back on votes is getting us nowhere. I’ll cast my vote before the night is up regardless.
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@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
I'm in EST too (nice coincidence there). I've got work for much of the morning, so real time discussion will likely have to wait for the afternoon/evening unless that's not an option for Banana at this point, in which case I can shove things aside for a bit to have it now. In any case, given the short timeframe, I agree that it would be best if we could have this discussion in real time. Hopefully we can make that happen, but if we haven't settled on a time by, say, the early afternoon today our time, then we need to start wrapping this up and making our calls.
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@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
Alright, since I gave Cerulean time to post a lot, I'm going to give Banana the same, though note that we only have limited time remaining (roughly 18 hours by my count), so do not delay too long.
Taking into account what I've seen from both of you, Cerulean seems to be pretty clear that he's sussing Banana, so at this point, he should be putting up a vote, especially if he sees me as pretty solid town since there's no risk that I'll just hammer out of nowhere. Banana still seems split (pun intended) between us, so I understand why a lack of trust may lead her to be more concerned about putting up a vote.
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@Cerulean
I'm considering it. I'd like to get Banana's response to all this before giving my thoughts.
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@iamanabanana
I am obviously caught up on the fact that I roleblocked cerulean though, however and the night kill wasn't stopped. I asked austin if my action was successful or not, and he said he couldn't provide feedback unless I was provided a result. So if something happened to impede my action, I have no way of knowing that, but that would be my only case against you is that I roleblocked cerulean, and a night kill happened. That's why I have been so insistent on knowing if there are role's that can "Trump" or mess with a roleblock that you or anyone know of?
Based on my experience, scum definitely have a role that can delay the effects of a night action by one NP, it's mainly a question of whether Pie had it or his partner does. It would almost certainly be able to mess with your role since scum actions generally have priority unless otherwise stated. As for this:
Because to be honest I find it weird that I am still alive, and if mafia have a role that can stop me or prevent me, they wouldn't be worried leaving me alive, and might hope to use my information to get them a mis-lynch. In other words it feels a little bit too easy for you to be scum here, and I am skeptical of the idea that I was just left to my own devices. If that makes sense.
Scum essentially had two choices: take out Earth or you. Earth was the Universal Miller and was openly townreading me, so he would have been a terrible choice to leave alive since the DP just would have ended. There was a risk with your role, which they were apparently willing to take (probably would have done the same myself, independent of their role, tbh).
My legacy role is I have a 1x roleblock I can use after death
That's akin to mine, anyway. Would you have been able to use this only in the following DP or could you have banked it and used it anytime?
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@iamanabanana
Also, I don't know if anyone else is experiencing this problem, but I'm not always receiving emails when I get tagged (e.g. this past response from Cerulean), so I might not respond quickly unless I'm watching the page.
We've got time to talk this out, and while you are still new to this and there's a lot to consider, it's worth posting your thoughts even if they're only half-formed regarding which of us you think is scum. Also, I don't believe you have claimed your legacy role yet. Truth be told, neither have I, so I'll spill it. If I died during a NP where I performed an investigation, Austin would have announced my results publicly the next day.
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@Cerulean
If you're Town, the only way it could have failed is if I'm exactly a Godfather who also has either a higher priority roleblock or some kind of immunity. Which would be pretty powerful when Pie would have also been a JOAT in that world.
Again, while I agree that the existence of a Godfather with an active role besides is not something I would consider common or super likely, I don't really like that your response to this idea is consistently to push it further to make it sound more ludicrous. As scum, you would not need "a higher priority roleblock or some kind of immunity." In every game I've seen, scum have priority. That's a given. And I already know (because it was used on me) that scum have a role that puts a time delay on the use of a role. It's a given that scum have such a role and it's not some absurd PR to add onto a Godfather. The question is: does the remaining scum have that role or did Pie have it?
My main issue with this Banana Town case is that it inherently relies on underestimating not just Banana, but the hypothetical Banana/Pie team. Lunatic would be able to tell you that pairing a newbie wolf with a very experienced wolf creates a dangerous situation for town, he played a champs game where that exact thing happened (I can show you if you want). Which is why I dislike cases solely based on "This person is unable to fake that thing."
I didn't say it was impossible, but I've seen scum/newbie teams before and, generally speaking, I haven't seen a case where the newbie in question has executed this well on all these fronts and simultaneously hasn't posted anything else that looks scummy. I'm not dismissing the possibility entirely, but the combination of the early softclaim, the bussing, and the pseudo-CC at the start of DP2 is a lot for me to just write off as "Pie coached her really well."
I'm about to start work so I can't write out the full Banana scum case that's floating around in my head, but it's there and in my opinion it makes more sense both mechanically and socially than the WF scum world.
I'll wait.
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@Cerulean
In any case, it's late and I'm going to give this some more thought. I'll give my last thoughts and then leave off for the night.
Cerulean, I think you have a point with regards to you being both the Godfather and somehow having an answer for the RB. I don't love that you framed it as somehow being both Godfather and RB-proof, the latter of which I never suggested and seems tailored to make the argument sound more ridiculous, but I can at least see where you are coming from. I have, however, noted that you have not mentioned who your target was this past NP. I know you were RB'd, but you really should be providing as much information as possible at this point.
As for Banana, the main thing that's holding me back is actually her very first post. I'd have to believe that, from her very first post in this game, she was presenting her fake claim under the guise that she was "assured by the moderator that [she is] town" and that when she looked it up on Earth's guide, she found it "under Mafia Roles." I'd also have to believe she was actively sussing her scum partner by the end of the DP. There's a possibility that she was just coached to do it and has pulled it off very well, but that's not my read of those posts or many of her other posts.
If she is scum, she'd have to be the Godfather (I doubt she just saved the Lawyer for NP3). Her claim to have RB'd Pie shortly after Casey faked his Inspector on Pie seemed a bit convenient (fulfilling the visit and easy enough to fake an RB with Pie feigning Silence), as did her choice of Earth the following NP since, as scum, she would have known it wouldn't have registered for him. So it's mainly a matter of whether I believe she was coached into those early plays.
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@Cerulean
The post lynch investigation as in the one Austin ran asking how many scum were on the wagon. You said there were two on the wagon when it was Me/Casey/Earth/Lunatic/Banana.
Ah, sorry about that, I keep forgetting these.
I did say there were two scum on the wagon, but I was mistrusting my own reads at that point and felt like I was off about either Moozer or Luna and I wasn't sure which. It didn't help that I wasn't in the best headspace when I realized the DP had ended before I could post.
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@Cerulean
I actually believed both you and Casey were town, so I chose both of you with the intent of ruling you out entirely and seeing if Moozer was scum.So why did you say 2 for the post lynch investigation? If you thought Casey and I were Town, and you've apparently been townreading Banana since Day 1, did you think the team was exactly Earth/Lunatic in that moment?
I've tried reading through this response a couple of times and I'm still struggling to understand it. I'm not sure what you're referring to when you ask "why did you say 2 for the post lynch investigation?" This is the post where I gave my investigation results:
Second, I was not actually RB'd as I believed. I was told by Austin that my Dreamer action failed, but I received results for it NP2. I had picked Cerulean, Casey and Moozer, like I said before, and it was confirmed that none of the three investigated as scum. Frustrating to receive it late, not sure what role does that.
I mentioned all three of you, and said that none of you investigated as scum. By NP1, I believed Moozer was scum. I was sussing him and Luna, chiefly, though I had my issues with believing they were a team and thought my read on Luna had more to do with our prolonged back-and-forth.
In any case, I'm taking a minute. I wish we had Pie's flip, since it would clear a lot up, but here we are.
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@Cerulean
In any case, the narrative against me falls flat because it doesn't fit if I'm the active Mafia and it doesn't fit if I'm the passive Mafia. And we know there's one of each because the info outright said:Scum have a passive role (Godfather, Ninja, or something like that) that allows them to appear innocent to investigations. In addition, they have an active role (the JOAT, presumably) capable of causing false investigative reports.
I don't think a Ninja suffices for the passive role, since it specifically says "appear innocent to investigations" rather than "not show up on investigations."
The initial case you gave was that I was passive:That makes it very likely that he's the Godfather (Pie was likely Lawyered NP2, so they both looked investigated innocent based on their roles).because you investigated me as Innocent twice. But if that's the case and I was passive, how could I possible have killed on Night 3? I would have been roleblocked, unless you're specifically trying to say that I investigate as innocent and I'm roleblock immune, which is extremely powerful when Town power is significantly concentrated in roleblocks.
Yes, and I still think it's possible. Note that we have a game where there are two town investigative JOATs and multiple town RB's. We know there's one JOAT, and one Godfather or equivalent. I could see a world in which the Godfather has a passive and an active role, which might include a multi-use role like the one that was used on me that delays the results of a given action by one NP. I also doubt that you would be Godfather and Roleblock immune. I admittedly tend to see a Godfather with only that role, but it's not impossible given the setup we have.
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@Cerulean
Wrong, actually. We know there's "a passive role that allows them to appear innocent to investigations." That could be a Godfather, but it doesn't have to be. If Austin meant Godfather, he could have just said Godfather. There's a reason it was asked on Day 3 what passive role might exist. If it was guaranteed, that wouldn't be a question he asked.
This just seems like nitpicking at this point. It may not have to be Godfather, but it's functionally Godfather. And given how some of the modding has gone this game, I'd say the question being asked isn't indicative of the Godfather not being here.
We're talking about a team that contains Pie, who pretended to be silenced and fake claimed Innocent Child. Why is it completely out of the question for him to have told Banana to claim Roleblocker?
I didn't say it's out of the question. I said I don't believe it. It's hard to know how Banana would play as scum without seeing it in previous games, but I just don't buy that she'd play this way as scum. If you have good reasons to sus her, go ahead and give them. I haven't voted you yet because I wanted this chance to talk it out.
This is flat out untrue. You're telling me you've never played or hosted a game where a role had unnecessary details that widens claim space for scum? You've never had a game where "They will die unless protected" without protective roles was stated in a role card? I can look at quite literally the last game here and pull an example:If you ever die in the night, all lethal actions in the subsequent night will be negated. (Martyr role, Indian Politicians Mafia)There were no killing roles in that game besides the Mafia. By the logic in your case, "all" could be considered misleading because there was only every one possible lethal action per night.
On here? I guess I've seen some oddities, but never like this. Using a role that specifically modifies results from two different informational roles and then just leaving out one of those informational roles is not something I've seen before. Also, your example contains a very obvious reason for the Martyr role to exist in that game: the Mafia NK. The absence of a Vig in that game isn't misleading because there was still one possible lethal action per night, as you pointed out. Hell, that was my role. I was NK'd and my role activated. The only way your argument makes sense here is if you think it's plausible for scum to have a an alignment cop. Role cop, yes, but I've never heard of that one before.
Sure, but that would put you in a 1f1 with someone, and with Lunatic on you pretty much at all times this game, that wouldn't be a very good outcome.
By this logic, I fabricated my role and refused to do anything with it, since I faked being RB'd NP1. I guess that's one view of WIFOM, but it's pretty baffling to draft this role and then refuse to take any advantage of it.
Why is this an "I guess"? The term "Conditional" is pretty clearly open to multiple different potential conditions, so I don't see any reason why you're sussing that my condition isn't identical to Joebob's from a different game with a different host.
I was pretty clear as to why.
I didn't quote my role PM exactly because we're... not supposed to do that? Regardless, you can figure out pretty intuitively what it's supposed to mean with respect to Lunatic's role. It's guessing the target of the Night Kill. So Casey, then Lunatic, then Earth would be the correct answers. I did double check with Austin because I guessed Lunatic was going to get killed (due to being semi-confirmed by the BPV and frankly by pushing Pie), and I wanted to be sure that was why it didn't go off. You didn't bother to even ask me about this before throwing an accusation.
It's pretty convenient that you explain this after Luna's flip, dude. I wasn't looking for a copy-paste, but given that this should have been present in your PM, I would have expected to see you give some of this detail, or at the very least, the specific wording that it's "the target of the Night Kill" as opposed to "whoever is killed on a given night." And yes, I posted that I sussed you over this without asking you directly about it. I also tagged you on the post and haven't voted you yet, so I gave you a chance to answer for it.
Uh-huh. And tell me, which one of those kills would you have nailed?
I can't know how I would have played in your shoes. My goal is not to tell you I could have done better, it's to point out that the way you've used your role resulted in it never being confirmed. We essentially have nothing to go on for you besides your claim.
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I'm going to need to focus on my work for the next hour or so. Suffice it to say that my vote is set to be on Cerulean at this stage, but I'd like to give him at least some chance to speak in his defense.
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@iamanabanana
Is there a role that could have interrupted or messed with my role that wouldn't straight up tell me if I was not successful or not? I do find it strange that I would be left alive as town with a role like this, unless it just wasn't a threat to the mafia team, or I was going to be the target of the mislynch. I would be more suspicious of you if you had tried to use this against me to lynch me, but the fact that you seem to be going after cerulean is making me question that.My head hurts lol
That depends on the mod. Usually, if it's an investigative role like mine, any mod will tell you if your role fails (you won't get information, so that alone will be pretty telling). If we're talking about other roles like yours, a mod may decide not to tell you if your role was successful.
As I see it, at least from where you're sitting, the question of who to lynch depends on a few factors:
1) Whether you trust that your role was successful (remember, there are three people left in the game and yours and Cerulean's roles are the only ones that are relevant given what we know scum has).
2) Whether you believe my role based on the existence of Earth in the game.
3) Whether you believe that Cerulean has missed the correct target 3 times in a row and has a means of explaining why his role exists in a game with a delayed NK result.
We've both given reasoning for our targets. My information is, unfortunately, largely useless (might have mattered if I'd targeted Pie during NP1, but not much even then), so my investigations aren't going to be much help, and even if they were, I don't think you should trust the results as we know they are being manipulated. So, however you see the above, the ball's in your court.
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@iamanabanana
I was not told that I was succesful or otherwise. I am asking him now. He did tell me that I can block a night kill though.
Alright, I stand corrected. Considering that scum roles have precedence over town roles, though, and considering that scum knew your role could interfere with them while mine could not, I'd take that into account when you consider whether Cerulean could have committed the NK despite your targeting him.
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@Cerulean
WF, can you tell me about your reasoning for the investigations you did? (I get the feeling that you think it's me, but bear with me for at least a little while here.)
My first choices (for the Dreamer) were largely focused on reducing PoE. I actually believed both you and Casey were town, so I chose both of you with the intent of ruling you out entirely and seeing if Moozer was scum. Didn't end up accomplishing that since I got the results late.
My second choices (for the Parity Cop) were because I started sussing you in DP2 as we were whittling down PoE. After the DP ended and Moozer flipped innocent, I had Pie pegged as pulling a gambit with his fake Silencing, and figured you were his most likely teammate. I also knew my role was likely useless at that point since scum have a Godfather and a role meant to manipulate my results. I figured it was likely that you and Pie saved a Lawyer for NP2 when PoE would put you two in the crosshairs, so I suspected you'd both investigate innocent, but then so would anybody else except Earth. So it didn't really matter who I chose given what I knew.
My third choice (for the Cop) was Banana because, since you had investigated innocent and then investigated the same as Pie (who we now know is scum), I can only imagine you're the Godfather. That would be the explanation for why you would investigate innocent NP1 and investigate the same as Pie NP2 (one of you has to be Godfather, so one of you would investigate innocent regardless of other roles). So I chose Banana because I hadn't investigated her yet (despite my read on her, that's still something I wanted to see), and because your results were already virtually a given.
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@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
I'll start by saying what I did NP3: I used my 1X Cop on Banana, and she copped innocent. I previously targeted Cerulean twice, he showed up as the same as Pie with the Parity Cop, and he showed up as innocent with the Dreamer. That makes it very likely that he's the Godfather (Pie was likely Lawyered NP2, so they both looked investigated innocent based on their roles). We already know from DP2 that there is a Godfather in this game, and that there is likely either a Framer or Lawyer to make someone investigate differently than they normally would. These are not surprises at this point - they are common knowledge. There's always the chance that Banana is the Godfather, but frankly, I just don't believe it. There's too much evidence out of DP1 that Banana's been honest about her role, and I don't think she'd claim to be the Roleblocker if she was. If she was a more experienced player, I'd believe it's possible. I just don't believe it here.
So, I'm going to focus on the evidence I have for my innocence and what I have on Cerulean that makes me think he's scum.
For me, look at Earth's flip. He was the Universal Miller, which investigates guiltily whether by a Cop investigation or by a Tracker. He could have been just a Miller, or he could have been another role that just investigates as though they visited the target of the NK. He's a combination of the two, which suggests the existence of a Tracker (which we know Casey was) and a Cop (which I have said I am). It would be an incredibly bastard mod move to create a role that is meant to fudge results of two different types investigators and then only have one of those types in the game. Beyond that, if I wanted to get a mislynch, I very easily could have fabricated either of the results I've given so far, especially my Dreamer result. My results were basically useless, not to mention they came out at odd times. Why would I claim that my Dreamer was stopped only to get a result after we knew there was a Godfather and Lawyer/Framer in the game? I'd have to give up on any potential gain from my fake role early for you to believe that I'm scum.
For Cerulean, he's admittedly been hard to pin down since a lot of his behavior up to this point hasn't really set me off. But let's look at that claim. He said he's the Conditional Vigilante. He said:
If I ever correctly guess the nightkill, I get a Vigilante charge. Which, of course, I haven't (I guessed Banana on N1 for being a universal townread and WF on N2 for being an Investigative claim).
Well, he made a mistake. We've seen a Conditional Vigilante before, and recently. JoeBob was the Conditional Vigilante a couple of games back in the Shocking T.V. Moments Mafia game. Note what his role says:
Each night you can select a player. If you target the person who is carrying out the night kill, you will kill them.
I guess you could argue that this is just a different iteration of the Conditional Vigilante, but with Luna's flip, that falls flat. We know that a lethal role used on Luna resulted in a delayed outcome. How, exactly, does a role like this work with that role? Would he have to guess Luna the night he is shot or the night he dies? With Casey alone, maybe this was believable because he was technically out of the game after he was shot, but nothing about the role as Cerulean stated it makes sense with a delayed death. Presumably, that's in his PM, and I'm sure he'll have a lot to say about that now that he sees Luna's flip and has to come up with some excuse for how his role accounts for it.
Finally, even if you don't believe any of the above analysis of Cerulean's role, the fundamental fact is that he has nothing to support the existence of the role. Oh darn, he just missed the target of the NK 3 time in a row. How unlucky can you get? All we have to go off of for Cerulean's claim is his claim. We don't have any other roles that even partially confirm him - if anything, we have at least one role that calls his claim into question.
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@iamanabanana
And then there was three!Well, I roleblocked Cerulean. Considering there was a night kill, I guess that means that it's whiteflame since there was a night kill. Unless I am missing something?
Before I get to a bigger post giving my reasoning, I'll respond to this. Your roleblock, successful or not (was it noted to be successful in the PM you received?), would not have prevented the NK. You're welcome to verify that with Austin, but roleblocks typically only affect the ability of your target to use their role, not to execute the night kill.
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@Lunatic
Got it. Given how my results have likely been manipulated, my legacy role may not end up being useful.
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Alright then, guess the DP's over. Don't think anyone's getting access to their legacy role this DP, so hopefully we don't end up needing them. I'll use my 1X Cop tonight for whatever that's worth.
Also, server's terrible this morning.
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I'm going to hold off on the hammer because there's still value in getting the post counts up and continuing the conversation that's ongoing. At this point, though, it's pretty clear that either I'm lying or Cerulean is.
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@Cerulean
I'm pretty sure I'm cleared by WF's investigations. Like, I know there can be manipulatives in play, but if it were me, that would mean that WF's ability would have needed to be blocked/delayed Night 1 AND made incorrect somehow. I still don't have a strong grasp on the roles that get used here, but that seems like really weird design.
Definitely not. We know scum have two ways to manipulate my results, which would make a lot of sense of why you'd both have the same affiliation (i.e. one of you is scum and got Lawyered, and one of you is the Godfather). The latter could well be you, which makes sense of both results, since in both cases you'd investigate as town. If you were the target of the Lawyer, that would be a different story since you were investigated both times. But we can always see what flip Pie shows and base it on that.
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@Cerulean
I think it would be silly, yes. Unless it's very specifically a Miller that messes with the post chop investigation votes or something (which Earth hasn't mentioned). As I said, I thought the only real team with you in it was with Earth, and with Pie outing that's clearly not it. So I'm willing to treat you as cleared for now.
Alright, makes sense.
It's apparently a very weak role because I'm awful at guessing nightkills. I posted a link to wikipedia for you to read, but basically, the justification is that one Auburn Calloway attempted to hijack the flight and kill all of the crew members with a (spear)gun. The reason it's conditional is because the speargun was only used afterhe tried to kill the crew with hammers, as a sort of last resort.
The role is, effectively, a no risk Vig with a significantly reduced chance of success. Convenient for it to have been unsuccessful 3 times in a row, though I can at least see why you’d choose those people.
As for the legacy, which I forgot to mention, because exactly one of the crew members ever flew again, I can use an ability from one person (not myself) in the graveyard the Night following my death. Which is fairly situational.
That is… odd. You’re not alive at that point, so informational roles are useless. Luna’s BP is useless. Earth’s Miller is useless. So… Strengthner I guess? That’s a lot to bank on a single player being killed off.
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@Lunatic
@Cerulean
So, at this point with one known scum on the table, you think it’s plausible that there’s a Miller without a town alignment investigative role?
For the record, I don’t like Cerulean’s claim. Town has a lot of very powerful PRs, and a Conditional Vig makes little sense to me in addition. Noting the lack of justification in his claim post.
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@ILikePie5
Well… I guess given that there were two town JOATs with a selection of investigative roles, and we’re getting info from the mods, that makes sense that you’d be frustrated.
Have a good birthday, dude.
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@Earth
Wait shit I think I should have said JOAT lol...
Yeah, I don't think that would work since a JOAT could have multiple individual roles.
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@Lunatic
I’ll admit your claim and recent post look good for you, still obviously gotta wait on pie and cerulean.I can see a pie / cerulean scum team
Yup, I'm fine waiting.
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I'm going to stick to the same guesses: Godfather (passive) and Framer (active), though I think Lawyer is just as likely.
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I just received a correction from Mharman:
"CORRECTION: Cerulean and Pie are the same affiliation. I'm so sorry for the error."
Doesn't really change my read. From where I'm sitting, PoE is down to Pie, Banana and Cerulean, with Pie and Cerulean topping that set. I don't buy Luna or Earth as scum based on what I've seen from them these last two DPs. The alternate scumread is Earth and me, which I can't deny is a valid possibility at this point from where the rest of you are sitting. I know I'd at least be considering it. We'll see where people are at after we get their claims.
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@Lunatic
That's fine. If you want to lynch me after they claim, then we'll get there when we get there.
Also, I'm just going to out everything about my role and actions at this point. Three things.
First, I am not just the Dreamer as I described. I am actually the Investigative JOAT. I have a 1X Cop, a 1X Parity Cop, and a 1X Dreamer, which works as I described it (pick three targets, see how many of them are scum).
Second, I was not actually RB'd as I believed. I was told by Austin that my Dreamer action failed, but I received results for it NP2. I had picked Cerulean, Casey and Moozer, like I said before, and it was confirmed that none of the three investigated as scum. Frustrating to receive it late, not sure what role does that.
Third, I used my Parity Cop NP2 and it was successful. I targeted Cerulean and Pie. They are not the same affiliation.
I'm aware that, given what we learned at the end of the last DP (reminder: "Scum have a passive role that allows them to appear innocent to investigations. In addition, they have an active role capable of causing false investigative reports.") that these results have limited value, since scum clearly have a Godfather and at least one framer/lawyer/tailor. That being said, I'm giving what information I have to work with at this point. If people don't believe me because I pushed Moozer as hard as I did, oh well.
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@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
I don't blame you for sussing me, but can we all just take a beat to notice what's missing from the OP: any confirmation that Pie is the Innocent Child or any similar role? What is your role, Pie?
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Given that Casey can’t post and Earth posted his thoughts first, I’ll follow his lead.
1) Four
2) 20%
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@Moozer325
I’m between events, but based on what I’m seeing, I don’t have much to add.
Moozer saying this, in particular, seems weird:
“I scumread Whiteflame because of his claim and same as Pie, the behavior last DP.”
So he’s buddying Luna’s behavioral read on Pie and me without explaining why (he was sussing Luna behaviorally last DP and now he agrees with him entirely) and sussing my claim without explaining why either. Seems like a weak effort to distract from his own wagon that is entirely reliant on someone else’s logic.
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@Cerulean
Yep, my apologies, my head is elsewhere this morning.
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@Lunatic
I’m sorry, it’s too early, I’m distracted and I misread Cerulean’s post.
This is for where the vote will go post-lynch, and yes, I’m still fine with that being Casey.
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@Lunatic
I thought she was asking about who to choose what we all vote for, not the lynch
Pretty sure the aim was to decide how this DP ends. If the aim is to vote for something else, let me know what that is.
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