Total posts: 6,549
Posted in:
-->
@Earth
Consider the following. If there were two scum on the wagon, and assuming Banana is Town, then that means Cerulean and Lunatic are scum. Now, naturally I would consider targeting Pie because he is the largest threat.
a) We don't know how many scum were on the wagon. We got a piece of information. I checked with Austin and he would have given us info regardless, it was just a matter of how much. Considering how little we got (the existence of a scum JOAT), I'd say we were wrong about there being 2 scum on the lynch, but that's just my inference.
b) I don't really agree that Pie is just automatically the biggest threat on the table. I've personally often seen him that way, but that doesn't mean that scum will always choose him over other targets. That being said, I think it's worth inquiring about his role this DP.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Earth
Why is Pie still alive?
Any particular reason that you chose to ask this question?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Earth
If I'm right, apparently nothing. Casey can post the entirety of their role anytime. I suspect the Tree Stump is Casey's legacy role.
Created:
Posted in:
Well, to start, I definitely did not appreciate that Owen was hammered before I could return. He was also clearly the wrong choice, and frankly, at the very least, he should have been given the opportunity to use his role. Down one protective role I guess.
Good news: even though Casey was clearly Janitored, they can still post and we know their role: looks like they're a Tree Stump, since Casey can still post but not vote (basically Restless Spirit with opposite conditions). So waste of a Janitor.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@WyIted
That’s kinda the point. Jacob is a very effective character to use for the part of the Torah that he occupies precisely because he’s a piece of shit. I like his brother better.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Bones
Hey, congrats on pursuing law! It sounds like things are going well - I’ll definitely have to check some of these papers out. I know I enjoyed our debate quite a bit and that your style of argumentation will do well for you in your field. Wish you the best!
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
Sorry, didn't see that the DP had ended.
Gonna say two.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Cerulean
White (Is that the correct shortening? Or do you prefer "WF" or "Flame"?), we haven't played any games together, have we? How do you have expectations about what I would be like as scum?
WF is fine, Flame over White.
I don't think we've played games together in the past, though if we did, it was a while back. I have certain expectations about how people will generally play as scum, not so much how you specifically will. Maybe that's a mistake on my part to generalize.
Created:
Posted in:
I'm teaching my class in about 10 minutes and I'll be on that for an hour, so once I'm done, I'll catch up again quickly and post a vote. As many people as possible should give their decisions before then.
Created:
Posted in:
That just leaves the unclaimed, myself included. I wouldn't sleep on me if I were you guys, but needless to say, I'll be leaving myself out of this.
It's significantly harder to pick among this group, mainly because this tends to be the set (aside from Cerulean) who I just don't read consistently from game to game. I really only have two chunks to work from in this case.
Cerulean and Luna re the ones that are in my town lean pile. Luna, in particular, softclaiming some capacity at role prevention after two had already been given pushes him a little bit more into the town pile. He set me off a little earlier on when he wasn't posting as much, but since he's become a more regular participant in the DP, his posts have come off more townie. Cerulean, meanwhile, has had a pretty strong fixation on Owen that comes off as pretty townie, especially since Owen has claimed. I could see him pushing for that lynch more strongly before and backing off if he was scum, but the continued effort on this front doesn't fit what I'd expect from him as scum.
That leaves Pie and Casey. I'll be honest, I'm not sure I buy either of them as scum, but they're both pretty solidly in my null pile. Pie's been perhaps a little more aggressive than usual, but since I was on a similar wavelength with him and have largely returned to that same wavelength, I can see why he arrived at that point and has stuck with it. His decision to step off the lynch because there was pushback against lynching Moozer also made sense, but I can see him doing all this equally as town or scum, so it doesn't push me in either direction. Casey's been giving some good reads and analysis as well, but like with Pie, I just haven't seen anything that sets them in either the town or scum pile. A lot of this looks like Casey when they're town, but I've been fooled on that front before.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
The issue with Moozer is that Strengthener makes sense in this setup. Could he be a scum Strengthener? I think it’s very possible assuming Banana, Owen, and Lunatic are all town. But it’s just as possible he’s a Town Strengthener and the other 3 are town as well. We’re probably going to have to rely on behavior for Moozer. His flip flip on Lunatic has me worried a lot.
If there really are so many roles in the game that manipulate, then I can see the basis for there being a Strengthener. He did also claim before all these role manipulations started rolling in, so I can understand why he looks a little better on that front. That being said, I'll point out that Earth also claimed Strengthener during the Ace Attorney game and it was largely townread for the same reason, despite him being scum.
What are your thoughts on a Scum Strengthener?
It'd be a weird choice, though given that he could use it on his scum partner, there's clearly some scum utility to the role.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Casey_Risk
Atm, I'm not willing to lynch Owen, so you don't have to worry about that. I'm just very much on the fence about him.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Cerulean
Point taken. There’s a non-zero chance that he’s scum and Austin designed a role with a fake confirmation that gets found out later and could cause major harm. Not sure how much I want to bank on that, but even if he’s role “confirmed” next DP, I wouldn’t write him off.
Created:
Posted in:
Let's do this. I'm going to separate this into two so I can focus on the claimed people first and the rest after I've had dinner.
Among the claims made so far, since I was asked, the order (from scummiest to least scummy) goes:
Moozer > Owen > Earth > Banana
To my mind, Banana's the obvious one we're not lynching. The pseudo-CC in particular sets her apart, and much as there's room to argue that her scum partner might have pushed her to do that, I don't think the way she did it comes across as coached.
Earth's early Miller claim and general behavior make me townread him a bit more than the other two. I know I said he could potentially take a big swing like this, but I just don't see him going for an early Miller claim. At the very least, he's not my priority.
Owen is a tougher one. His role claim has, essentially, two distinct points of confirmation: the inventor giving out items and the legacy role acting as messenger. It's a bit of an odd claim, but that's not the major problem I have with it. He's jumped back and forth on how he's claimed it, starting by saying that he's a rolestopper-inventor, then that he's an inventor who can give someone else the ability to rolestop, then saying that his justification focuses on the rolestop... even though he just clarified the inventor is his role. I get that the inventor appears to only give out the rolestop item, but it's still weird that he can't seem to keep them straight. I want to give him an NP to use his role, but he's behaviorally all over the place.
And then there's Moozer. I'm still hesitant to lynch him for reasons I've already mentioned about how his role of Strengthener sticks out as odd, even if the legacy role is pulling me in the opposite direction. It seems a little... inside baseball, if that makes any sense, requiring a lot of work of town to figure out how to use it effectively, and I agree with Pie that it doesn't make sense that he has to stay quiet about the number. In part, I wrote that off as "he saw that he would be modkilled if he said it," but I've noticed that Moozer has never said that that would happen. So... I guess he's just not allowed to say the specific number he's been given? What are the limitations on that? Can he give a number close to it? Can we try to guess it and can he give confirmation of whether we're too high or too low? If Austin's set limitations on what he can say about it, then Moozer should have informed us by now on what those limitations are and, at the very least, tried to make use of his knowledge now rather than just waiting to see if he gets to use it.
So, yes, Moozer is my choice among these four.
Created:
Posted in:
Alright, I'm free and caught up. Let me get my thoughts together and I’ll post my full reads.
Created:
Posted in:
As for who to lynch based on what we know, Moozer's role still sticks out a bit, but his legacy role at least has me questioning whether he's the right decision to go with here. Given Owen's claim, I'm least willing to lynch him atm. I'm not fond of defaulting to Earth just because he's the Miller. The pseudo-CC from Banana with the RB claim definitely sets me off a bit - I don't think Banana's relative absence/newness to the game makes her more townie, though I also don't think she'd venture a CC like this in her first game as scum, so while she's in my PoE, she's still leaning slightly town to me.
As for everyone else, I'd say it's pretty open. The more I keep seeing from Pie and Luna, the less I'm sussing them, though they're both still very much in my null pile. Cerulean comes off as pretty townie to me in terms of his analysis - I just generally don't think he'd push Owen as hard as he was if he was scum - but Casey's pretty null to me. I'd like to spend more time catching up when I get a moment before I provide a discrete set of reads, but if I had to pick based on what we know. So it's down to Pie, Luna and Casey for me until I catch up and provide better reads.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
Sorry, been a busy morning/afternoon.
I haven't fully caught up yet, but I've seen Owen's full role claim and explication. It has multiple points of confirmation, so I'm going to:
Unvote
I recognize that it's possible for a confirmable role to still be scum, I just am not willing to immediately lynch someone before they get a chance to confirm, even to this extent.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Owen_T
Air France flight 447. The flight crashed due to pilot incompetency. The plane was losing speed, and started to fall. The pilot could have recovered by going down to gain speed, but instead, he pulled up, stopping the plane and killing all passengers. Therefore, I am a rolestopper-inventor. I'm not sure where the inventor part comes in.
Yep, I'm going to need some explication as well. Inventor, in particular, is something that you could explain in greater detail.
Also, are these separate roles you have access to regularly? What is your legacy role?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Moozer325
Unless anything changes majorly over the course of this DP, I’m ready to lynch Lunatic.
I might scumread this if I didn't see you as town. I don't like that you're this willing to lynch him without a claim. I know he's taking a very hardline tack against claiming, but it's not like he's at L-1 right now, and I'd want to at least try to get that information before we just lynch him.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Owen_T
At this point, I think I'm more willing to push Owen for a claim than Luna. I can see the basis for the latter, but the pattern I'm seeing from Owen (as Cerulean has pointed out) is more troubling. I also don't really understand how he's townreading Pie and me at this point, especially given that he hasn't put a vote on anyone this DP - he's just said that he thinks Moozer is "slight scum" and is apparently less convinced than Pie about just how scummy he is. If we're going to get another claim, I'd prefer it be his.
VTL Owen
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
Kind of drunk last thing I remember was pressuring pie and now I’m seeing votes in me so without having caught up I’m assuming he just flipped the script somehow and argued that I’m scum and without me being here you all just bandwagoned him or something
Alright then. Just so you know, Pie wasn't the one originally sussing you.
As for me, I'm not going to read into this response since... yeah, I buy that that's what is going on. I'll give you some time to sober up.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
How the hell did I become the wagon!? And no fuck all of you, lynch me. I
As someone who isn't on your wagon, why are you responding this way?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Owen_T
@iamanabanana
Updated Tally:
ILikePie5: Complete
Whiteflame: Complete
Earth: Complete
Casey_Risk: Complete
Moozer: 19 posts
Cerulean: 18 posts
Lunatic: 16 posts
Owen_T: 11 posts
iamanabanana: 3 posts
There's still time enough left for Owen and Banana to get up to 25 posts, but you both need to be more active to do it.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
We can afford to get one more claim from someone. We need to quickly decided whether that’s Lunatic or Owen because we have around 24 hours left I think, and I’m going to be inactive for the rest of the night cause of Garba.
I'm good with getting a claim from one of them. Luna's fine by me, but I'll read back through the DP a bit and make a decision by the end of the night.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Moozer325
No one seems to be hearing me, so I’ll make one final push and then drop it. Lunatic had some really weird reads, (I recommend that you go back to find them) and he hasn’t been as active as usual. He called pie out for being aggressive but he of all people should know that’s how he plays by now. I’m not saying he should definitely be the lynch, but I think he deserves more attention.
Haven’t had much time to respond. The long and short of it is that, yes, he does seem to be behaving a bit oddly. I want to read back through his posts a bit to get a better feel for whether I’m actually sussing him as a result, but I am getting the same niggling doubt about him I had last game.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Casey_Risk
I think this game is called Mayday Mafia because it's named after the Canadian TV show Mayday. It looks like the show did an episode called "Gimli Glider" about the incident Moozer mentioned, so it's a plausible claim at least.
This is a good point. I can say that my flight is on that list, and since you’re stating this, I’m guessing yours is as well.
Created:
Posted in:
As for this recent push on Pie, I get where he’s coming from, so honestly I don’t see a good reason to push him just for being a little aggressive here.
Created:
Posted in:
The more I keep thinking about it, the less I like the lynch on Moozer. I’m still iffy on the Strengthener role, but the legacy role is a different story. I was initially put off by what I thought was an effort to delay claiming it, but it seems like Moozer was genuinely unsure if he could claim it based on how the role works (i.e. restrictions on what he can say about the number of people who died on the flights that are still in the game, which he may have interpreted as not being able to say anything about how it works). It also screams Austin - I could definitely see him putting this kind of mechanic in the game. I do recall Luna fake claiming Mathematician a couple of games back, a role he designed that would provide broader info on night actions during the NP, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this idea sprung partially from it.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Owen_T
@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
I'm going to renew the post tally (I'll just say "complete" for anyone who has 25 or more) and head offline for a bit. I'm also going to tag those lower on the post numbers. There are a few of you in particular that really need to raise your numbers since we're over halfway through the DP at this point and you're well under half the number of posts required to get your legacy role.
ILikePie5: Complete
Whiteflame: Complete
Earth: 18 posts
Casey_Risk: 17 posts
Lunatic: 14 posts
Moozer: 12 posts
Cerulean: 6 posts
Owen_T: 3 posts
iamanabanana: 3 posts
Created:
Posted in:
Alright, I'm going to think on this for a bit. For now:
Unvote
A couple of things that are swimming around in my head now. One, this in no way relates to the Strengthener claim at all. I'll say that my legacy role is very much interrelated with my base role. Two, it's a pretty roundabout way to get information that almost entirely relies on getting everyone to claim their flight, adding up the numbers, subtracting out the numbers of people who die after Moozer is eliminated, and trying to see what combination of numbers from each flight make the most sense adding up to the remaining total. I could see that being useful later game, and I could see Austin running a role like this, but it's really only useful late game as the number of players goes down.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Moozer325
I know the number now, and I think that the same number will be the one released, but I’ll check.
We're getting somewhere, but I'm still missing important context. You say you have a number. That number represents... what? The number of people who perished total across all the actual flight incidents as they happened? If so, will eliminated players have the number of deaths on their flight removed from that total?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Moozer325
I know the total number of all the combined deaths from all the flights in the game. I can’t say what that number is, but it will be revealed upon my death.
You're repeating the claim rather than answering my question. What differentiates "the combined deaths from all the flights in the game" from just looking at the OP in future DPs and seeing the number of people who have died due to lynches or NKs? If you don't know, this is the point where you're supposed to ask Austin. I cannot ask him for you.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Moozer325
Okay, turns out I was wrong and I can claim my legacy role. Because no one died on my flight, I have access to the total number of deaths on all of these flights. I can't share it, but It will be released upon my death.
Please explain this. What do you mean "the total number of deaths on all these flights"? What information are you getting and how much of it would be shared if you died?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
No, and that doesn't really apply here because I think we can both agree that there wasn't really a "slip" here. It's more that you aren't buying a justification. I was more surprised by your eagerness to assume he was scum is all.
Saying I’m sussing his claim doesn’t mean I’m assuming he’s scum. Right now, between the two existing claims, his stands out as strange. Yes, I’m not buying his justification, but claiming that’s some “eagerness” on my part is strange. I’ve also been calling for this DP to progress to a lynch extremely slowly to allow more people more activity.
Not really my point, its more that you seem to be treating what you feel is a scummy role claim the same way you tend to treat a scum slip you found as town (like what you did with moozer last game, and supa the game prior, both of which DID make scum slips, and were actually scum). You seem just as aggressive with this as though it was a scum slip or something.
I pointed out the scum slip from Moozer and then dropped the issue because I was unsure of it after some discussion. I was sussing him until I wasn’t because Moozer convinced me that his PM could have been misunderstood. That was a mistake, but I’m still openly asking for other perspectives to see if I’m tunneling or missing something. Keeping my vote on him and still sussing him isn’t what I would call “aggressive,” especially since my repeatedly stated goal is to gin up activity first and foremost.
I don't know if passive is really the word I am looking for, though I guess to some extent it works. The reason it stood out to me really is that it felt more "lazy, oppertunistic", like you are perfectly okay with lynching him whereas I feel like town whiteflame would have tried to see more both sides of moozer here and weigh him as being town equally. Your town playstyle is more "lawyer" like where I feel like you have to have a pretty good reason to want to lynch someone before caving to it.
I really don’t recognize the way you’re characterizing my behavior this DP. I didn’t say that I’m fine with lynching him. I said his claim is sus, that doesn’t mean I’m automatically prepared to lynch him. I don’t really get either the lazy or opportunistic labels, either.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
If that is your read that is your read, my goal isn't to change your mind on it, more to determine if it's genuine or opportunistic seeming. It just felt a bit out of character to me personally, but I could be mis-reading the situation.
Alright, fair enough.
To be fair looseness and directness of role pm's are kind of arbitrary. I thought a lot of them in the indian politicians games didn't really make a TON of sense where others thought they did.
I agree, though this is a different game with a different mod. Maybe I’m just assuming too much about how Austin designed these justifications, but I’m seeing more precision and care in Earth’s and mine.
Who do you think moozers partner would be if scum? I don't see him coming up with strengthener by himself.
Right now, I don’t know. I don’t think it’s Pie because he’s been pretty clearly pushing Moozer early and often. Several people in this game have seen the role claimed before when Earth used it as a fake claim in the Ace Attorney game.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@iamanabanana
I don't really have any reads at this time, I know that isn't super helpful. Mafia is still a bit confusing to me, and I don't really know how you are all reading each other so easily. It might be that I am just not used to this crowd, but I don't really see anything that stands out.
I’d still suggest posting as much as you can to increase your post count, even if it’s mainly questions like this one:
What is a miller and why is earth being pressured for being one?
The Miller investigates guilty, but is town. So it’s a negative town utility role that could be used as a basis for trying to get heat off of you if you’re investigated by a Cop. I wouldn’t say anyone’s pressuring Earth right now, but I can see how he might be a target of suspicion if we aren’t sussing anyone by the end of the DP.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
Whiteflame- Not nearly as passive as he usually feels to me, I feel like hes making a mountain out of a molehill with the moozer claim. It piggy backing off of pie who feels scummy to me, makes me less sure about him. Usually whiteflame is much better at catchign scum slips, this doesn't feel like a slip though on moozer part. I just don't like the read, and it doesn't feel like town whiteflame to me.
I get that Pie and I are on the same wavelength (which is generally rare - it didn’t even typify our game as scum together), but is your basis for sussing me really that I tend to be better at catching scum slips? I appreciate the sentiment, but two claims on the table, I’m working with what I have. Not finding a scum slip isn’t scummy. Pointing out a clear deviation from an existing claim and my own isn’t scummy. As for not being passive, in a game where posting a lot more is a mechanic, yes, you can bet I’m going to engage more and push more people to give their thoughts. I said that much up front.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
I mean loose justification is good enough for me, my role pm justification is loose as well so I am not going to tunnel that.
I don’t really get this response. It’s not just that it’s a loose justification (though I’d say my point was that Strengthener isn’t what follows from reading said justification, not just that it’s “loose”), it’s that several things stand out about the claim. He was pushed to claim early due to inactivity and the role he claimed is a common one I’ve seen (and my scum partner has used) to avoid getting CC’d. If we’re talking looseness, Earth’s justification is far more direct, as is mine. I can only base my read on him off of what information I have. If other people have claims this loose, I’m good with taking a step back and reconsidering my read.
Created:
Posted in:
I'm going to head off for the night. I want to hear more thoughts on Moozer's claim and people need to post more anyway, so now's the time to post those thoughts, guys. Spread them out over a couple of different posts. Break up your reads.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Casey_Risk
It just struck me as interesting how Earth claimed pretty much instantly, which led me to believe he probably wasn't lying. In retrospect, I think I might have been underestimating the probability of him being scum. It just seemed unlikely to me that scum would so quickly claim a role which tends to get lynched early like that, though I guess it does depend on playstyle. Some players are more risk-averse than others. I will say that I've seen Earth as scum twice, once in a game that I modded, and I don't feel like he'd be the type to claim Miller instantly, but I could be wrong. In any case, the justification checks out to me.
Earth's the type to do big risk plays even when they seem unnecessary. My experience with him as scum makes me a little nervous of his claim, but not enough to solidly scumread it, mainly because of the incident and justification. I buy that he could play the Miller card really early, I don't buy that it would be that good of a connection if he did.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
If anything, that claim sounds perfect for some sort of protective role. It’s very odd. Strengthener as a fake role claim also is possible since it is relatively rare
Yeah, I've used it before for that very reason. There also just aren't a lot of roles like it.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Earth
@Casey_Risk
@Owen_T
@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
Would like other thoughts on this claim.
Created:
Posted in:
I don’t like the justification. Could also be a justification for a strongman, but I digress. I still scumread Moozer. I’m interested to here what everyone else thinks
The Strengthener itself isn't obvious from the justification. Pulling through a difficult circumstance doesn't scream "Strengthener" to me, even if the information he's provided holds up to what he's saying. Definitely ringing some alarm bells.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Moozer325
Alright, I wasn’t expecting this so soon, but I get it. I’m the Gimli Glider and I’m a strengthener due to the heroism of the Pilots in landing the plane with zero casualties. I don’t think I can claim my legacy role.
I don't know anything about this flight beyond a very brief skim of the Wiki page on it that I did just now. The pilots were celebrated years later, so that checks out. Why do you think you can't claim your legacy role? Nothing in mine suggests I can't.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
@Moozer325
Well, seems we don't have to wait. Whenever you're ready, Moozer, go ahead and give your full claim.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
Moozer needs to full claim at this point. Based on his claim, we can determine if we need Owen’s claim.
Especially given his lack of posting and his having hopped online at least twice by my count over the last 24 hours, I'd agree with you that a full claim is warranted. That being said, I also understand why Earth would push back on stalling while we wait for Moozer to post and would want to at least put attention into something that would yield information. If you want to wait, it's mainly a matter of how long.
Created: