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@Owen_T
Hi guys, good news still alive.Pressuring Moozer is obviously not working so if he doesn't show up this DP I'm down to lynch for information.No other opinions to share really
I'll note that you're being considered the target for information by Earth, Pie and me atm, so if you have a basis for seeking info from someone else, you might want to share it. Also, I'll note that this is not for a lynch, at least not yet. I've already said that we should avoid lynching too early to give time for people to post the required 25 times to get the legacy role, and unless said information changes the picture substantially, Earth's Miller claim is probably the default lynch (even if I would prefer to avoid that as a basis for a lynch).
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@Cerulean
I would (at least for now) defer to you all on that front, since presumably you would have a better instinct on how a theme split is going to come to play with flavor text like this. There's a bit of a scale to the soft claims here- even claiming a specific incident could be enough to clue Mafia into what a person's role is, right? Do you have an idea in mind on how far we should go with it?
Yeah, I'd say there's a scale to it as well. We could seek information regarding the cause of the specific incident (e.g. engineering, weather, terrorism, FTC), though that might end up yielding half answers and too much information in incidences with highly distinct causes, hence I'm hesitant to pursue that information. If I had to pick, I'd go for finding out whether the cause is known or not. The black box is kinda implied in the presence or lack of knowledge.
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@Owen_T
I'm noticing you haven't been tagged in a good bit and now you're being discussed as the target for information this DP. Might want to chime in.
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Alright, given that we're about a day into this DP and therefore about a third of the way through, I think it best to start a running tally of posts made by each of us. The count we're aiming to reach, DP after DP, is 25. Everyone should be aiming to reach it or else you are not using your role to the fullest, and yes, I recognize that that includes scum. So, participate people.
ILikePie5: 19 posts
Whiteflame: 14 posts (this one included)
Earth: 11 posts
Casey_Risk: 7 posts
Cerulean: 4 posts
Owen_T: 2 posts
Lunatic: 2 posts
iamanabanana: 1 post
Moozer: 0 posts
As for a topic of discussion, this is the point where people should chime in on one of two suggestions that have been made. I suggested there might be reason to pursue soft claims and I've gotten just 3 responses so far. Earth has suggested putting pressure on someone for a claim and has only gotten a response from Pie. By the by, I'm fine putting some pressure on one or more of the people with lower posting totals. I'd like to give Banana a chance, so Owen's my first pick, as he apparently is Pie's and Earth's.
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As we get later in the DP, people should become increasingly aware of how many posts they’ve made. This is one game where I’m not going to scumread fluff posts; if you’re adding to your post count, as far as I’m concerned, that’s reason enough to post whatever.
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Under no circumstances should anyone be pushing to lynch this early in the DP with the legacy roles in play. No one has 25 posts at this point, so no matter how scummy someone is, we should resist efforts to push for a rapid lynch at the very least until a good portion of active users have posted enough to use them.
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@Earth
I think there is an argument in either direction, but I think we should just scumhunt the old fashioned way before pressuring for character claims.
Point taken. I mainly just want to make sure that we don't get to a point late in the DP where we're having to make a decision last minute with extremely limited information and no obvious wagons aside from those who are relatively absent and those with SOP claims like yourself. If we can do that through normal scumhunting, I'm all for it.
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@Casey_Risk
You know me, my usual MO is to get the game started with soft claims. In this case, there aren't really any obvious directions to go imo, but something like whether the black box was recovered or whether the cause of the accident is known for sure might be a decent start.
Either of those does seem general enough to give us the gist of what's going on. We could do both as well, since I suspect even with both of those pieces of information, it will be difficult to know which crash they indicate. At the very least, I prefer either one (or both) to giving too many specifics in an attempt to narrow down causes.
I was thinking about this last night, but idk the best way to do it
There are a lot of ways to take this, so personally I'd like to keep it general as a start.
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While we're on the subject of activity, what are people's thoughts on getting some softclaims? I don't pretend to know what the theme split will be, but the split could be between different types of incidents (e.g. specific reasons for a given crash are scum while others are town, whether the black box was recovered, where they went down) or it could be differing results of air accident investigations (e.g. known vs. unknown causes). This seems like a theme we could interrogate a bit, so it might be worth getting softclaims to narrow the window on these. I'd be happy to go first, regardless of the choice, but I'd like to invite discussion over this.
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@Moozer325
VTL Moozer
Gonna need you to start posting in this DP, otherwise you won't get to 25 posts and therefore have access to your legacy role. Also, generally speaking, activity is appreciated.
Gonna need you to start posting in this DP, otherwise you won't get to 25 posts and therefore have access to your legacy role. Also, generally speaking, activity is appreciated.
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@Cerulean
Good morning, all. Miss me?
Hey, it's been a while! How are you?
And this time, since we're aware of it and thinking about it, we're not going to fall for any neon blinking signs saying "YOU SHOULD LYNCH THIS PERSON" in any flips, yes?
We'll need to be careful about that with all these legacy roles. No doubt scum have the capacity to manipulate results, like Luna said, and given that everyone essentially has a double role, I suspect scum are going to be powerful in this game.
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@iamanabanana
By the way, in this game I have been assured by the moderator that I am town, but I am confused, because according to earth Guide to Forum Mafia, my role is under Mafia Roles, but the moderator assures me I am town. So I just am giving a heads up this time around.
Alright, this gives me a light townread on you since I don't think you'd announce this if you were scum. Long story short: I wouldn't be terribly surprised if some people have a pretty scummy role as town. Just note, if your role has negative town utility (e.g. Earth's role as Miller), then there may be a case for you claiming this DP.
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@ILikePie5
I’m not dealing with a Miller late game. Been there done that. My policy is the same. We find a better lynch or we policy the Miller.
Fair enough. It's a better choice than just lynching someone for inactivity or no lynching, which unfortunately have been typifying recent games.
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@iamanabanana
I'd like to echo the sentiments you got from others after last game that I thought you did a good job, especially for your first time out. There's a bit more going on in this one, so I'd definitely read through that "Important Setup info" portion of the OP, some of which may be essential to remember going forward.
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@Earth
I am Uberlingen Disaster and I am the Miller. Due to a number of factors including an ATC who made a poor decision, there was a midair crash. A few years after the crash, the ATC was tracked down and killed by a relative of some of the victims despite the fact that there were other causes besides the ATC.
Interesting. The early Miller claim makes sense, and the justification seems to fit. Not an incident I'm familiar with.
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@AustinL0926
Alright, back in this. Not terribly familiar with the theme, but I've heard of the major incidents, most (if not all) of which I suspect are in this game.
Also, Austin, this little addition is an inspired choice:
"2. Each player's role has two parts - a regular role, and a legacy role. The legacy role will activate on death if and only if that player has met an activity requirement - 25 posts in the previous day phase."
Everyone should be aware of this and try to post at least this much, which will also improve activity in the DP. It should be noted that Mafia might also have a legacy role, though that certainly won't prevent a lynch. I can at least say that my legacy role would not activate on a lynch.
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@Best.Korea
I'm with you on both fronts. There are a lot of aspects of the original show that I'm still very fond of, even if it got a little weird at times (maybe especially because it did). My brother and I played a lot of the card game and always tried to run more subversive decks that didn't follow the meta, but the restricted and banned list, as well as some updated rules on how certain cards play, ruined that playstyle and just made the meta absolute.
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@Lunatic
I’m glad we killed of Austin and Whiteflame when we did I have a feeling they would have started pushing me around dp3.
You’re right, I was behaviorally sussing you a bit in DP1, and those suspicions grew as the PoE group decreased. Also, not that it matters, but I would have sussed the fuck out of Moozer for choosing to Doc me NP1, refusing to do anything NP2, and then Docing you NP3. That claim would have made me sus the two of you immediately by itself.
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So now we're down to about 20 hours. Banana's gotta make this decision tomorrow, so this is the point where people need to start collecting their thoughts and giving their strongest scumread to inform Banana's vote.
While I think people are making some decent points about Owen potentially being sus, he's not going to be my choice for this DP. Moozer has come off as townie enough in his behavior that he's not the one I'd push, either, nor is Earth for a variety of reasons I've discussed. Right now, my choice would be JoeBob . I just don't buy the role, and his behavior has been strange. Asking what reads do to help town just comes out of left field and seems pretty basic: they give us an idea of how you see other players, which informs our reads of you and them, respectively. Scum may have reason to either bus their partner or protect them, and that can come through in a set of reads.
As for others, there's always the chance that Banana is playing a devious game or that Luna's still scum despite what I know about his role. I won't dismiss either of those.
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@Moozer325
You may be right that we should let him wait to confirm himself, but this still makes me scum read him a lot. He starts off by just claiming "enchantress" without even explaining the role, then when he explains the bare minimum of the role, it looks a lot like he scum slips, so he goes offline for a while and comes back saying that banana gets the item and the end of the day, which I have never seen before. Again, I know my opinions don't have much sway, so I'm just saying what I think.
Despite my sussing you, I still agree. A lot about his claim is strange to me (though some of that strangeness is even more perplexing if he’s doing this as scum) and I don’t like that he made this discovery about when his target becomes aware they’ve received it. That being said, he has no more wiggle room at this point. His claim either yields results that we see confirmed DP3 or it doesn’t and he’s at least on the chopping block.
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@Earth
I’m not really assuming Banana dies in the night so much as recognizing that scum might decide to kill her to make Owen look sus, particularly if she passes the crystal ball.
There’s a non-zero chance that she’s scum, I’ll admit. Her role is testable as Popular, but there’s also a chance she could be Popular and still be scum. Regardless, while I wouldn’t autolynch Owen in the absence of confirmation, I’d need to be convinced that Banana’s pulling a pretty convincing gambit here as a new player.
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Suffice it to say that I think it would be a bad idea to lynch Owen this DP. Too much of his claim just doesn’t make sense if he’s scum, and he’s going to be confirmed one way or the other next DP. If we want to be certain of that, all Banana needs to do is hang onto the crystal ball if she has it. Then, even if she dies, we’ll be notified.
All this leads me back to Moozer and JoeBob as my main suspects.
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@Owen_T
Pie says that Banana will be notified tonight, unless there was any interference. That clears things up.
Alright. Either that happens or you remain unconfirmed. I’m fine with waiting to see if Banana receives it and sends it along.
For future reference, this is the kind of question you should be asking after receiving your role. You have a confirmable role, so it’s reasonable to ask when it is confirmed.
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@Owen_T
That's a good idea but I've already given the orb away so I can't
You’re certain it’s gone? You’ve asked Pie?
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@Mharman
Seen and deleted. Thanks!
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@Earth
Suffice it to say that I’d like to wait until DP3 to claim if possible. If enough people want it, though, I can claim this DP.
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@JoeBob
It seems I’m almost always widely sussed, so I’m not that bothered by it
If you want people to read you behaviorally instead of just based on your claim, then you need to participate. If you're not bothered by it, then you're effectively submitting to a lynch and if you're doing that as town, then you're actively making it harder for us.
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@JoeBob
I have nothing to post but fluff
Reads would be nice, especially considering you're being widely sussed.
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Be aware everyone: we have a little over 30 hours left in the DP, so we have time to discuss, but we really need to start winnowing things down and people should give their thoughts. As far as my own thoughts go, here are the basics:
I think there's one scum between JoeBob and Earth. I have a hard time believing that there is absolutely no investigative role in this game, but both of their claims come off as a little sus. I'd say JoeBob is looking more sus to me right now, though I can see scum asking Pie about either the Motion Detector or Watcher and presenting their claims as they did, even if I have a slightly harder time believing that the Self-Watcher is a fake claim.
There's also likely one scum between Moozer and Owen. This is a trickier choice because I think Moozer's reads made sense and he's been pretty behaviorally townie, though his claim comes off as more suspect. The trouble with picking him, though, is that he's also the only claimed protective role in the game. Owen is a very odd case because he is blatantly unconfirmed in his night action. Like I mentioned above, though, he'd basically have had to sink his own ship about as hard as he possibly could in order for him to be scum. Maybe I'm just overthinking this and he just went for it hard with a role he barely understood.
So, if I had to pick, I guess I'm leaning towards JoeBob and Owen as a scum team, but I feel more strongly about the former than the latter. As people start giving thoughts, I can tally the votes.
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@Lunatic
The one thing I’ll give Owen I don’t think he came up with this role by himself. It’s either real or he has an experienced partner who came up with it for him.
I agree, the role itself isn't something he'd come up with. My other concern, as it has been for every game like this, is that we know scum had the opportunity to ask Pie about two roles. Picking one that a) is distinctly out of left field, one none of us has seen before, b) one with an obvious means of role confirmation, and c) claiming its usage on the person who is the Queen this DP doesn't jive with the reality of what scum have at their disposal. I really don't like his claim at all, but unless his goal was to make himself stand out via a series of strange choices, I have a distinctly hard time seeing him as scum. I may be applying some WIFOM to this, but this series of decisions seems absolutely nonsensical if he's scum.
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Also, I'm reading back over this justification and scratching my head. Does anyone else have a justification this flippant? I know it's paraphrased, but my politician is pretty divisive himself and the justification follows from that divisiveness. It focuses on the way my politician portrays himself. The way Owen's is phrased focuses more on how others perceive Benergee, which wouldn't stand out nearly as much if the justification for the role itself wasn't just "her popularity must be the result of magic!"
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@Owen_T
Considering the nature of this role, I would think you’d have clarified with Pie how it works. What did he tell you about how Banana would be notified?
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@Owen_T
@iamanabanana
I’d advise holding off as well until we have more information. I think you would necessarily have to be informed about receiving the crystal ball, since the way the role works is that you’d have the opportunity to send it to the next person and, if the person carrying it dies, it’s revealed by the mod who sent it. I don’t see what value there is in the role if you aren’t informed that you received it. Maybe you’d receive that info at the end of the DP, but nothing in the role that I’m seeing suggests a delayed notification.
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@Lunatic
I can't find anything on the enchantress role. Can yall post a link to what your finding?
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@Owen_T
Anyway, it's late. I'm not going to stay on to see your answer, but I'll give preceding thoughts:
I really hope you chose to use your role. It doesn't seem like it comes with a cost to you to do so, and I can't really fathom why you'd pass on it. That being said, it's still a role that should be verifiable. If it somehow isn't (I guess it's possible that Pie doesn't inform your target that they've received the crystal ball, if not from whom), then that's something you need to find out/let us know. If the role works as I've seen it, then its confirmation should at least make it more likely than not that you're town, though it's always possible that a role like this was just given to scum.
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@Owen_T
Mamata Benergee. I am Enchantress
Alright, two things then.
One, what's the justification? That's an odd role to give a chief minister.
Two, I hadn't seen this role before, but from what I can see, you pass a crystal ball to someone during the NP. That should be entirely confirmable, yet no one has mentioned receiving a crystal ball, something that they should see in their PM. Did you not pass the crystal ball? Was it passed and not noticed for some reason?
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@Owen_T
By my tally: me, Luna, and Moozer, who has you in his scum pool partly due to your lack of claim.
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Full claims:
JoeBob - Amit Shah - Motion Detector - NP1: used on Moozer, said he performed some action
Moozer - Mansukh Mandaviya - 1X Doctor - NP1: used on Whiteflame
Casey - Narendra Modi - 1x Kingmaker - NP1: crowned Banana Queen
Banana - Shivraj Singh Chouchan - Popular Townie - NP1: N/A
Earth - Bhupendrabhai Patel - Self-Watcher - NP1: was not visited
Partial Claims:
Lunatic - BJP
Whiteflame - Minister
Owen - TMC
Dead:
Austin - Yogi Adityanath - Ascetic
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@Owen_T
It seems like the way Pie designed this was meant to offer more opportunities for town to reduce the number of potential scum by PoE rather than find them out directly. Kingmaker is mainly here to self-confirm, same with Popular Townie. Given what I know about Luna's role, it has a similar aim to it. I'm going to remain vague about mine, but while it isn't in this same vein, it's definitely not as direct as a Doctor or Motion Detector. In general, there seems to be a trend towards limited utility roles or roles that could be net positive or negative to town like Austin's Ascetic. I could see the Self-Watcher falling into the limited utility camp at least.
Still waiting on you, Owen.
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@Earth
I am the Self-Watcher. I can only target myself and see who visited me. I was not visited.
That's... definitely odd. So we have two roles (Ascetic and yours) that basically only matter if you're targeted by non-killing roles. Very limited informational role.
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@Lunatic
Points taken. I'm less focused on the "mistake" that we've been discussing at this point because I think Moozer's response made sense - that his PM focused more on his character before he changed to Lok Sabha, since that only happened this year. I agree that the Doc claim is inherently at least a little sus at this point.
As for claims, yes, I'd say it's Owen and Earth first and foremost. I hope you won't have to claim, but we'll see.
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As for where I see things, I think the town camp is pretty clear.
Casey has straight up demonstrated their role without CC. It strikes me as a good choice. I was already townreading Casey behaviorally last DP, but the role confirmation plus the use of this particular role (it'd be incredibly weird for scum to have a role like this) make it a near certainty that Casey is town. It's a little weird that Casey considered thinking that the prime minister themselves is a member of Lok Sabha a softclaim, but I'll chalk that up to my own lack of knowledge about how the prime minister and houses of parliament interact in India.
Banana is only slightly less so. She was widely townread behaviorally back in DP1 and I don't think any of us have seen reason to change that now that she's Queen-for-the-DP. The claim of Popular Townie makes her role confirmable as well. That's not 100% since I believe we have had a Popular scum before (it was a long time back), but I have a hard time believing that that's the case here. Small outside chance, but still a strong town lean.
Luna is in my town camp. I'm going to ask that people just trust me on this one for the time being. He's not absolutely confirmed town, but I have good reason to suspect he's town based on what I know from the NP and I'll leave it at that for now.
That leaves five others, myself included. I'll leave it to others to decide where I should fall here.
Based on his hesitancy to claim what he saw as a scummy character last DP, I'm still lightly townreading Owen. That being said, he's my first choice for a full claim at this point because he's also the one closest to null out of my town pile. I could see how he might use his concern over his character looking scummy as a basis for dragging out his claim further, I just don't think it's the likeliest explanation for his behavior up to now.
That leaves three: Earth, Moozer and JoeBob. I was townreading Earth last DP for claiming a Minister and I still stand by that. He also pointed out the interesting clustering of characters representing Gujarat. He was the earliest to claim a character as well, and while he could have just asked Pie whether this specific character was in the game, the choice itself seems like it would come out of left field and that he'd be risking a lot if he was the only claimed Minister (which, at the time, he was).
I don't know about the rest of you, but my character does not represent Gujarat or anywhere all that near it for that matter. Madhya Pradesh, the region Banana's character represents, is distinct as well. I don't know why Pie would select three people representing the same region, particularly if the rest of us are more spread out. I can't speak to the theme at all, but unless it's a regional theme split, I don't see it as at all likely that these three were independently given characters from Gujarat.
So, at least atm, my scum reads are Moozer and JoeBob. I've already spent some time explaining why JoeBob stands out to me with the Motion Detector and the result he says he received, but my stronger read is on Moozer. Anyone else find it strange that he just straight up claimed 1X Doctor rather than stating that he was just the Doctor, essentially claiming that he's now Vanilla since he's used up his role? And without any pressure this DP to boot. If it's the sole protective role in this game, it's strange that it's a single-use role and honestly, I'm not entirely sure why he claims to have used it on me. I seemed like a random choice, and especially if he didn't know who had a PR of substance, it was a strange choice to target me if his sole reasoning was that he thought I was town. I was certainly not the strongest townread coming out of DP1. This scum pool does mean that these two would have tied themselves together with JoeBob having claimed to use his role on his scum partner, but the Motion Detector claim and target seems almost tailored to both validate Moozer's claim and afford JoeBob some distance if he flips scum, since he can just say that it still registered Moozer's action regardless.
Anyway, this post has been long enough and I'd like to get others' thoughts.
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I'd like to start discussing PoE more broadly at this point. We should at least be able to agree on a pool of potential scum based on what we know so far, though I'd really like if Owen could make an appearance and give any results he has.
First, the claims so far (I'll build from Luna's breakdown - let me know if I missed anything):
Full claims:
JoeBob - Amit Shah - Motion Detector - NP1: used on Moozer, said he performed some action
Moozer - Mansukh Mandaviya - 1X Doctor - NP1: used on Whiteflame
Casey - Narendra Modi - 1x Kingmaker - NP1: crowned Banana Queen
Banana - Shivraj Singh Chouchan - Popular Townie - NP1: N/A
Character Claims:
Earth - Bhupendrabhai Patel
Partial Claims:
Lunatic - BJP
Whiteflame - Minister
Owen - TMC
Dead:
Austin - Yogi Adityanath - Ascetic
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@Lunatic
So he either1: guessed correctly2: is mafia scout and saw him move3: is mafia moozer and know he visited someone and used this to try and confirm him selfEither way it implicates him as scum so yeah I’m down if banana wants to lynch him
I'll note that it's not guaranteed. Earth informed me just a few posts back that in his game where he'd made Pie the Motion Detector, he had said Pie would get distinct information based on whether he visited or was visited, so it's possible that that's his actual role. The lack of any investigative role claimed so far makes me hesitant to pull the trigger here as well.
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@Lunatic
So your saying he should have just got a message saying “motion detected” instead of saying specifically the he visited someone, am I understanding that correctly? It’s suspicious because it specifically says he visited someone am I getting that correctly?
Effectively, yes. I don’t know what specific message would be sent, but regardless of what it is, I don’t think it would be this specific.
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It’s late on my end and my eyes are sliding off the page as I read, so I’m going to call it here. Will pick this back up on the morning.
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@iamanabanana
Does your role say the shift between the Lok Shaba and Rayja Shaba, or was that your own clarification? Because it seems off to me that the moderator would specifically include that in your pm, if that's the mistake that whiteflame was calling out.Anyone else notice this or am I making a big deal out of this?
You’re right that it’s weird that he didn’t say it was in the PM. Still unsure how to read Moozer on this one. The Doc claim comes off as a little sus, seems a little basic compared with the known roles on the table so far and it’s the only 1X role aside from the one that made you Queen for a Day Phase.
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@Moozer325
I get this whole confusing thing, but does it actually affect anything? I’m genuine curious, because either way we know that I visited somebody (you) with my doctor role, so we just have to wait and see if anybody visited me.
Because it could indicate that he’s lying about his role, since the information he received doesn’t match what we would expect for a Motion Detector. It doesn’t change anything about how we read the result.
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