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I just got home. The DP4 Innocent Child is pretty sus since it’s entirely possible we won’t even make it far enough to get him confirmed. Still catching up.
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So many pings… I’m heading in now but I’ll respond first.
I’m male. I don’t know why scum would fake claim an antagonist, but my character is more on the protagonist side.
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@WyIted
I threw a name out to get some activity and see if we can spark consensus. You should probably put your vote on somebody who is in a lot of POE pools like earth though
Last post before I head out. I think with such little time left, trying to rush to a decision is likely to result in a mislynch, since activity is likelier to come from town than it is from scum (who can afford to just stay offline and wait out the remainder. At this stage, I prefer a NL, so unless something changes, that’s where my vote is going until I get back.
VTNL
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I really don't have time for this at this point because, like I said, I'm getting ready to attend a funeral now within the hour. This knee-jerk shift to sussing me right at the end of the DP when you know I'm going to be gone doesn't sit well with me, but this isn't my focus right now for obvious reasons.
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@AustinL0926
What it forces on scum's part is for someone to visit you rather than use a specific night action, though yes, you've just made it very unlikely that a town player would visit you and interrupt your role. I think that was already pretty unlikely given that you were widely townread based on your early behavior, but that might just be my interpretation. I've townread you from the beginning and I don't think that if you were some weird TP role you'd just go ahead and claim Dreamer at this stage.
I don't think I risked a mislynch?
I'd say you had opportunities to claim under less pressure that would have led to the same outcome and not risked someone coming on and hammering you. I know I was nervous that someone else might put you at L-1 at the same time I was doing it.
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@AustinL0926
Unvote
So, just to be clear, you softclaimed a day variant of your role to place the focus on three players so that we could behaviorally read their responses?
It definitely isn't a first for you to do something like this, especially given the Super Saint fake claim back in the Mahabharata game, but it does feel like it uniquely handicaps you since the Dreamer role can be interfered with simply by visiting the Dreamer. I also don't know why you'd risk a mislynch until the waning hours of the DP over this.
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@WyIted
Bro there is only a few hours left.
If he hops online and refuses to claim or he does claim and his claim warrants it, then a lynch might be warranted. As I see it now, we only have speculation on what he could be hiding.
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Also, since it has been brought up, I’ll say that, at least with the current info we have, a VTNL is preferable to pursuing what I think would be mislynch on Savant or just lynching one of my nullreads out of uncertainty. It’s not how I wanted the DP to end, but it’s better than the alternatives.
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@AustinL0926
I'm not comfortable lynching Austin just because of his softclaim either, and given his continued unwillingness to claim, I think the only choice is to put him at L-1 and see what he's been so unwilling to divulge. I still don't think he's scum, but I think he's confused the DP long enough with his softclaim and we need to at least have something more to inform who people target during the NP.
VTL Austin
And let me be very clear on this: no one should hammer. Austin at least deserves the chance to claim. Hopefully we'll have at least some time to discuss his role, but I have a funeral to attend this afternoon (roughly two hours from now), so I will remove my vote beforehand to prevent anything going awry if he hasn't posted by then.
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@JoeBob
Maybe Luna's right and this is a TP Lyncher situationI thought that was Savant.
This is the first mention I can find and it's Luna.
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@Savant
Clearly, you're not super comfortable lynching me, and Austin has said he will claim at L-1. Unless we can get a full claim out of him, I think we are pretty likely to get a mislynch today. I recommend voting him if you want to pressure him.
I'm considering it at this stage, but I want his response to me first.
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@Lunatic
I don't know a ton about the series, but I was watching youtube videos on the way to work, and saw one that said that the one sister was dead. Not sure if being dead =/= not being in the game, but its worth considering that it was a character that might have been asked about by the scum team.
Point taken, though I'll note that that's WyIted's character claim (the dead one) and not Austin's.
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Alright, took a while, but long post incoming.
Mharman - Glad you're sticking around. Slight town. The defensiveness when Luna sussed him didn't really sway me one direction or another, but his "final thoughts" comes off as one of the more cogent read sets presented so far. I don't think he gave a lot of analysis regarding why he felt JoeBob was scummy, but it was one of the few attempts by someone outside of Luna and Savant to separate and analyze the two based on their behaviors. Also, and maybe this is just WIFOM, but I don't think he would have publicly announced that he was stepping out of the game only to reverse himself if he was scum.
Owen_T - Null. His decision to sheep Savant through much of the DP only makes me believe that he's very likely not on a scum team with Savant, but tells me little about him. His sudden turn on Savant over the last couple of pages is different, but since his reasoning so far has been... interesting... I can't really say whether he based his change of heart on anything substantial, though he does seem aware that Savant's flip could implicate him.
JoeBob - Null. Not much to say on JoeBob since a lot of his posting has focused on clarification and giving brief thoughts on various interactions and posts. He recently posted a set of reads that is his biggest contribution so far, where he proclaimed that he knows nothing about the theme, points to the obvious argument between Luna and Savant (I agree that it's exceedingly unlikely both are scum), and then gives a set of reads that just seem open beyond a townread on Austin and WyIted. Beyond just showing that he's seen much of what's going on, there's just not much here to discuss.
AustinL0926 and WyIted - I'm putting these two together to cover the CC. This could have resulted from one of them having asked Casey about their character. I know when we did the Mahabharata game, I asked about a major character anticipating that at least some of the five major brothers weren't in the game. It's certainly possible that either of them would have done that, but I have more trouble believing that either of them would outright CC the other given the result, and I especially don't think that Austin would then argue that he still thought WyIted was town before it was cleared up.
For WyIted, there's not much further to go on this. I get that he's willing to take risks, but I don't think he'd do so in this way. The whole situation screamed "I misread my PM." The Restless Spirit claim is interesting given that it was Casey's fake claim last game, but given how it was brought up, WyIted remains a town lean.
Austin's a lot trickier. His softclaim and steadfast refusal to clarify his role is still the weirdest thing in this game. I can't see the way he approached it as scummy, but I really can't understand why he's still keeping his role from us as town. I want to just straight up trust him because all those interactions with WyIted seemed as far away from scum as anyone in this game, but something is going on. Maybe Luna's right and this is a TP Lyncher situation. I'm not sure why he'd pick three targets in that case instead of just claiming Day Cop, or why he'd be this cagey about it. It's also strange that his character and WyIted's are so closely related (they're sisters) yet somehow would come from distinct alignments. At this point, I believe he's either fake claiming to cover for a TP role (Lyncher would explain why he didn't pursue WyIted) or he really did receive some insights on certain players in the game, though I don't believe it's through some Day Dreamer role.
Earth - Null. Earth has given some insights into Savant's claim that show that he's very familiar with the Ace Attorney games, and his contributions have recently been focused on Savant's justification and role. He seems to still be struggling to pick between Luna and Savant since he said he still wants Luna's claim, but since he hasn't pushed for it beyond saying that, I can't say how much this matters to him.
Lunatic and Savant - I don't think I can really discuss one without the other at this point. Notwithstanding Austin's softclaim, which remains a factor at this point, suffice it to say that I'm leaning slight town on both of you behaviorally. Savant has been confounding me since shortly after Austin presented that softclaim, mainly because he just bought into it wholesale only to out his whole claim under limited pressure and then argue that Luna was the obvious scum. Savant has a habit of latching onto strong beliefs about what's going on in the game, sometimes based on brand new information that it's clear he's still in the process of considering (e.g. Luna's theory about Austin being a TP). I'd almost consider it desperation if there were more votes on him, but it's rarely seemed like he was decided on how to get out from under suspicion. If anything, he's continually acknowledged that his role is sus despite it being confirmable (and in a game full of lawyers, it would be surprising if there wasn't a Magistrate). His indecision and uncertainty make me slighty townread him.
As for Luna, I think the RVS was just a drawn out red herring. At the very least, it didn't seem like a serious attempt to get WyIted lynched since he wasn't doing much to recruit votes. If it was a scum attempt to get a mislynch, it was a pretty poor one and not what I'd expect from Luna. I'm not sure whether town Luna would suggest a TP to explain what's going on with Austin, but if he was scum, I would have expected him to bring this up sooner when there was more questioning of Austin's claim. Similarly, I would have expected scum Luna would discard the opportunity to mislynch Savant by introducing it at this stage. The timing just seems wrong for Luna to be acting as scum.
Given that we don't have long left in the DP, I can see good reason to push on Austin to get this sorted out, since his softclaim has done a lot to affect the DP and getting clarity might be necessary to decide a lynch at this stage. I'd still prefer he just claim, particularly if it would prevent a mislynch.
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@Lunatic
I'm working on those. Keep getting interrupted.
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@JoeBob
I'm going to close this thread until after the game ends since it's an invitation for help outside of the game.
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Well, I'm a few pages behind now. I'll catch up before I write out my reads.
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@AustinL0926
Not going to full claim the specifics of my role unless I'm at L -1. Without going into too much details, I'll either eat an NK or force scum to spend their resources on me, so you'll have to trust that for now.
I may not understand why, but I think I’ve made it clear that I’m trusting you to make the call given my townread.
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@Mharman
I don’t think this is particularly risky given how many characters are in this game. I am also a lawyer born before Jan 1, 2000.
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@Lunatic
Thought I’d have more time at work to write out my reads, but it looks like those will have to wait until I’m done here.
I am at least going to address these pings and I’ll respond to other things going on when I’m done as well.
Luna, you mentioned wanting to pressure Mharman and Earth. They both at least posted some response, with the former being defensive of their posture and the latter being dismissive. Setting aside their responses, I do find it odd that after they responded, no one addressed this. There’s been very little focus on Mharman, Earth, JoeBob and me throughout much of this DP.
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@Savant
1. I'm willing to admit that scum is probably me or Luna. Luna hasn't admitted that. My question is, why would a scum player admit they are in a very small POE? It doesn't work in their interest.
Never really understood this assumption beyond what Austin's softclaim suggests, and considering Luna stated that he doesn't believe Austin's softclaim, I can at least see why he wouldn't "admit" that. If your perspective is broadly shared, then yes, you are putting yourself in a small PoE pool and he isn't. That still requires the initial assumption.
2. Luna sussed WyIted solely based on mod psyche and voted for WyIted based on that suspicion. It seems like such a stretch to actually vote based on WyIted not being scum yet. Now we know that WyIted is probably town due to an earlier slip, which makes Luna's read make even less sense.
Noted, that did happen. He removed his vote after the Austin/WyIted CC debacle, but I take your point that it looks worse now that WyIted is broadly townread.
3. Luna said that lynching me might be a good call even if I am town, because I was wrong about scum and tunneled in a previous game. Advocating lynching someone even if they are town seems more likely to come from a scum player than a town player, imo.
I don't know if this stands as scummy for Luna specifically (I'd have to leaf back through previous games, but I don't believe this would be a first for him regardless of his affiliation), but you're right that it's not helpful for town. Just a question of whether this particular suggestion was frustration/taking jabs at you as town or actual scummy behavior.
In any case, I don't have the bandwidth to read through the DP again and get a good handle on any patterns in peoples' behaviors. I'll work on that tomorrow and get some reads posted. I have a better understanding of why you're sussing Luna now, but I encourage you to consider other players as well, since much of this DP has focused on just the four of you (you, Austin, WyIted, and Luna).
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@WyIted
I honestly think Austin should full claim first. Once you narrow scum to 2 possible people you should give us a reason to trust you. Usually being that scared to claim after something like this is indicative of town caring too much about their role instead of behavioral analysis. If I was a 2x cop and got a guilty I would likely fill claim and lose my roles utility before even stating my results to build trust
I get where you're coming from. I'd really like to know the details of his role as well, but given that he's currently my strongest townread (see: the whole CC debacle, including his view that you were likely town despite his CC, as well as the character herself being almost a gimme for this game), I can only surmise that there's some reason Austin is keeping that info to himself. He's not playing it the way I would, as I feel that it's net negative on utility given the possibility of a mislynch, but I'm also not going to push him to out his role at this point.
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@Savant
Could you lay out your case for sussing Luna? It seems like it's all over the place at this point and it's late enough that I'm not going to go back through the DP and compile it myself.
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@AustinL0926
I definitely wouldn't waste a question on Maya, considering she's very likely to already be present, especially as her character fits very well thematically with an investigative role.
To be fair, this is Ace Attorney we’re talking about, so there are a lot of characters who thematically could have an investigative role. That being said, I agree that Maya’s not an obvious pick given her relevance to the series across multiple games.
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@Mharman
If I'm scum and asking Casey about who's in the game for a fake claim, I'm not asking about the protagonist or any deuteragonists. I'm asking for a more minor character. Not for someone who's obscure, just for someone who isn't at the forefront of the story.
Speaking as someone who has been in the position to ask about characters, I can say that that was not my thinking, though in Pie’s game we had much of the DP to wait for claims to roll out to narrow our options. Scum doesn’t have that luxury here, but there are enough games with enough protagonists and deuteragonists that some are bound to be available. There’s risk in asking about certain characters, particularly when they’re related to other central characters, but even if scum guesses a character who is in the game, it can inform fake claims by restricting the pool.
That being said, he and WyIted also claimed early enough that they would have either had to ask Casey about the character and be told it wasn’t in the game or be willing to take a huge risk with very limited info. The former is possible but unlikely. I don’t think either of them would do the latter.
Still, I think we shouldn’t assume how scum chose to use their questions. Different people will weigh the benefits of picking certain targets and reach different conclusions.
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@AustinL0926
I agree. Without speculating further, I'd prefer to look at my results holistically in the context of behavior as well. I wouldn't be opposed to lynching someone outside the three, although the game is moving pretty slowly right now. What do you think of Savant?
I've been working on that.
Savant's been a bit off all game, but like Luna said, that could have more to do with recognizing a need to change his style of play. Behaviorally, at least, he's been making a lot of strange turns in his responses and analysis, but his decision to consistently relegate himself to being in the PoE pool is especially weird - it's not something I normally see from someone without a full claim on the table. That being said, his character claim makes me want to townread him based on my own, even if I'm wary of taking that step given the information that scum has regarding at least some of the characters in this game.
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@AustinL0926
I didn't get much of a chance to engage with Austin's softclaim yesterday, but suffice it to say that it seems a little weird to me as well, even if it's possible given the character (she's a spirit medium in training). Any daytime investigative role isn't something I can accept on face value, even if I'm townreading Austin behaviorally after everything that happened last night. That being said, for now at least, I'm not going to speculate further on this.
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@Savant
I won't go into too much detail, but my role isn't that great, so if someone has to claim, I may as well di so. If Luna is the cop or something I wouldn't want him revealing a ton of info right out the gate.
I don't want more detail on your role right now, but it's a little odd given that you've argued that scum is between you, Luna and Austin, especially since Austin has already at least partially claimed, to want Luna to hold back. Based on your character alone at least, I have some reason to buy your claim.
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@Savant
So... wait, why did you claim your character? You only one vote on you and Earth's statement about getting a claim from you or Luna, and while I get that you have been pretty transparent about being sussed (I still don't fully get why you think you should be sussed apart from Austin's softclaim), I don't see why you felt the need to out yourself without at least having some discussion over which of you should claim.
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@WyIted
I feel like somebody just deleted a post
I'm realizing I don't know if I even have the means to investigate deleted posts. When it comes to Mafia, the only way I've ever learned of them was because they tagged someone and the post vanished. Couldn't say if it happened in this instance.
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@JoeBob
how does it garentee they aren’t both scum? I’m lost
Before I sign off for the night, I'll respond to this. Put simply, I don't think they would have had this kind of argument if they were on a team together. It's an argument that invited people to take sides and potentially could have led to a swift end for one of them, but it's also just the kind of argument that I don't think they would have staged (and they would definitely have had to stage it - they would be able to see each other's claims in scum chat). It came off as just a confused mess. It's not impossible for one of them to be scum and still do all this, at least assuming that one of them knew a certain character wasn't in the game because they asked Casey about it, but that's still an outside chance.
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@AustinL0926
@WyIted
Well... that was fun for a bit. At least it makes it absolutely impossible that you two are scum together, and very unlikely that either of you are scum individually. Great, at least we have that sorted out. I'm going to take a break.
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@WyIted
Hold onI am Mia not MayaDid he misspell Mia or are there 2 characters with damn near the same name?
*finds a wall, bangs his head on it*
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@AustinL0926
@WyIted
I get the distinct impression that one is you is MIA Fey and the other is MAYA Fey. Based on what you're claiming and your bases for doing it, WyIted sounds like Mia and Austin sounds like Maya.
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@AustinL0926
Well, it seems like one of you chose to fake your claim given that you both can't be Maya Fey. If one of you is town and doing it, then you're risking a lynch to do... something...
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@AustinL0926
@WyIted
So now you've both claimed Maya Fey with different roles. Alright. WyIted seems confident in his claim, so Austin, you mind explaining wtf is going on?
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@Savant
Yep... lost was my experience with Tenet alright...
At first I thought his role might be confirmable, then I realized it didn't make any sense to assume that. But one of us four should probably be the lynch at this point; if Austin is lying about what he knows he's probably scum.
Something's going on, but I'm not sure what yet. If WyIted's right that this is a Dreamer claim (no, I don't like that he's speculating either), then he's somehow a Day Dreamer, which is new to me and still perplexing. There are other informational roles that you can use to get info before the day starts, but those usually have restrictions that make reveals like this dangerous. I don't have a clear read on it apart from WTF, so I can't conclude like you're doing.
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@Savant
I assume Austin either knows something or is lying. In which case, scum is one of us four.
Maybe, but it seems like the obvious response is to ask for more info or interact with him over it to try to gauge what he actually knows/whether he's lying rather than jumping to "one of the three of us must now be the lynch."
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I’m… so lost.
So Luna says he believes WyIted is scum based entirely on modpsych.
Savant starts by just saying the equivalent of “not necessarily” and Earth says Luna’s read is “odd”.
Austin suggests he knows something about WyIted, Luna and Savant that comes out of nowhere. Savant initially responds as though this is now a foregone conclusion before continuing to sus the same group while throwing Austin on the pile because of WIFOM.
Do I have all that right? Because there are a lot of assumptions bouncing around over Luna sussing WyIted (admittedly, I find his reasoning puzzling) and Austin supposedly softclaiming while he susses three people (just baffled by this one).
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Not too much to catch up on so far, it seems.
The back and forth between Mharman and Savant with the votes (and WyIted and Owen throwing themselves in there) isn't particularly meaningful, though it at least gives me some idea of how Owen's approaching this, which is already significantly better than 420 (I know, low bar).
WyIted townreading Owen off of some arbitrary reasoning (this being that he's new) doesn't stand out, either. Most people have pushed back on that reasoning already and I'm in line with that camp. I generally agree with Luna that it's pretty common for mods to pair an inexperienced town member with an experienced one, but it's not necessarily the case. That being said, most of the players in this game have substantial experience at this point, even if there are still differences.
I think it's worth clarifying that if this is anything like the Mahabharata Mafia setup, then scum can ask about two characters and two roles, like it says in the OP. It's unlikely that they also get a fake claim (we didn't in that game and with Pie modding this one, I doubt Casey would add that in), though they most definitely will inform scum's fake claims.
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@AustinL0926
Unvote
Doing pretty good, albeit kinda tired and busy and will be slanking for the first few days of this game or so. Just got back from a chess tournament on the East Coast and time zone changes are a pain.
Wow, that's impressive! I've never been to a chess tournament, but I hope it went well.
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@AustinL0926
I'm not going to be super available until the end of my workday, but I'm popping on anyway and looking forward to some theme analysis this game. Haven't played the Ace Attorney games, but I'm familiar enough with the characters from watching playthroughs.
VTL Austin
Good to have you back for this game. How have you been?
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@Barney
@TheUnderdog
Yeah... I can't make you a mod, either, nor am I going to individually go through every post and delete it. So if Mike gets back to you, we can go from there.
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@Owen_T
Except that person is the moderator of the game, so they’d already know anyway.
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@Mharman
So you did have a rolesteal. I was asking Lunatic about it sometime after I saw there was multiple roleblocks. Had a hypothesis that somehow you had gotten Savant’s motivator and got multiple roleblocks that way. I’ll admit the logic wasn’t exactly airtight (and obviously incorrect now that we see the role PMs) but……the fact remains, I’m shocked you didn’t use it.
I stand by the decision to use my multi-RB during NP1, since at that point we had exactly three unknown roles to contend with. I think that was the right decision. Going into NP2, we had a choice between using it on you, DD, WyIted or Barney, and, frankly, all of those roles would have been useless to us. Felt wrong to waste it, but using it wouldn't have helped us.
You probably knew from my refusal to claim in DP1 that I had a strong PR, I don’t know what things looks like from your perspective but I’m thinking you should’ve killed me for my abilties.
I was strongly considering killing you or DD NP1, and I think either of you would have been a better choice in retrospect, so yeah, that was part of the discussion.
You never when you can get, and anything that has to do with vote manipulation is OP in the hands of scum. Trust me on that. In fact, trust Whiteflame in that.Combine that with a Yakuza and you would’ve been unstoppable I think.
Yeah, we had opportunities that we just failed to capitalize on due to a combination of poor choices and a solid town bloc that we weren't expecting. I was saying to Casey that I probably just should've drawn attention back to me in DP2 to ensure that I got lynched instead of her, which at least would have given us a chance. If we had executed the NK in NP2, I think there was a path to win, but it would've been a narrow one.
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@Lunatic
DP2 was just really surprising, and I don't think anyone could have expected it to go that way. I thought casey was a town lock for most people, at the very least, I expected him to survive off a VTNL to use the yakuza. Town really overcame adversity in dp2.
Yep, totally agreed. Like I said on Discord, though, I've been lulled into a false sense of security this way before when people just decided to overlook a certain player and I thought they were safe (usually that's me) only to jump on them next DP, so I probably should've known something was up when the amount of sus going Casey's way in DP1 was so light. One of those things I've learned from experience but have yet to fully adapt to in execution.
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Yeah, a lot of things went wrong, so I'll give some insight into what happened.
We decided not to use the Yakuza on NP1 mainly because we didn't think there was much chance Casey would be the next lynch. Both of us largely assumed that I would be, and then the idea was to have Casey commit die to throw everyone for a loop going into DP3 with their death and flip. Part of that also stemmed from WyIted being the only other full claim on the board and him being the obvious target for the Yakuza, which we figured would have been sussed out quickly. In retrospect, our best choice was probably to just convert DD with it.
As for what I did... yeah, I don't know Clash of Clans and functioning from Wiki pages wasn't good enough to craft a claim. Luna did tell us there wasn't a Cop, but I had trouble locating a good character to go with the role, so I did my best with what I could find. Wasn't good enough, but I was surprised I held off the lynch for as long as I did. I chalk that up to the infighting that was going on in town, particularly between Pie and Savant. We lucked out in DP1 (I honestly would've felt bad winning off of a modkill), but everything after that just went sideways.
Props to the rest of town for making this work. I thought it was a good setup, Luna, just feel bad that we executed it poorly.
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